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2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election to a second, nonconsecutive term.[3] If Trump wins, he will become the second president to achieve this feat, after Grover Cleveland. If both are nominated by their respective parties, it will mark the first presidential rematch since 1956 and the first featuring an incumbent and former president since 1912. A number of primary election challengers have also declared their candidacies for the nomination of both major parties. The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

2024 United States presidential election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Nominee TBD TBD Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[discuss]
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Home state TBD TBD California
Running mate TBD TBD TBD

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2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



Prior to the general election, political parties will choose their nominees at nominating conventions. Delegates to the nominating conventions will be chosen by voters in state-level caucuses and primary elections. In October 2023, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his run as an independent presidential candidate;[4] he received polling aggregation in the lower-to-middle 20 percentile in a three-way race the following month.[5][6]

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House. Several states will also hold gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Abortion access,[7] healthcare, education,[8] gun control,[9] LGBT rights, the state of the economy,[10] and climate change[11] are expected to be leading campaign issues.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[12] Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[13]

Both Biden and Trump have announced that they are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[14] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[15]

Electoral map

Effects of the 2020 census

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[16][17] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[18]

Electoral partisanship

 
Expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[19] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[20] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[21][22][23]

The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[24][25] whites who are wealthy or postgraduates,[26] or live in urban areas.[27] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more diverse and culturally liberal.[28] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[29] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[30] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[31] Under Biden, Democrats embraced the principles of internationalism, supporting large-scale military aid to Israel and Ukraine in order for them to achieve their strategic objectives.[32] Republican voters have become profoundly less interventionist[33] and have increasingly become opposed to funding either Israel or Ukraine in their respective wars, arguing for what they see as a foreign policy that would put "America First".[34][35]

The 2010s has been widely been seen as ending the Reagan Era, as Republican voters’ emphasis and opinion on social issues has radically changed, with same-sex marriage becoming overwhelmingly accepted among Republican voters.[33] There has been a strong and more aggressive emphasis on social conservatism and a "tooth-and-nail, middle-finger unwillingness to accept liberal social norms."[36] Many of the voters attracted by Trump have opinions at odds with Republican Christian "traditional social conservatives" —they did "not oppose or even care about abortion or same-sex marriage, much less stem-cell research";[37] but instead accepted "with varying degrees of enthusiasm ... pornography, homosexuality, drug use, legalized gambling, and whatever GamerGate was about"; but do side with conservatives in having "concerns about political correctness and 'SJWs,' opposition to the popularization of so-called critical race theory, [and] sentimentality [and love for] America."[37]

In recent years, the two coalitions of the parties have changed radically in composition,[38] with minority groups — particularly those who are Arab,[39] Asian,[40] Hispanic,[41][42] — the non-college educated, lower-income, and those under 35 increasingly trending towards the Republicans.[43][44] Jewish and college educated, affluent white voters have trended towards the Democrats.[45][44] In 2023, Axios stated that "the last several decades have ushered in a dramatic political realignment, as the GOP has broadened its appeal to a more [racially and ethnically] diverse working class and Democrats have become the party of wealthier, more-educated voters" and that "nine of the top 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats".[46]

According to Eitan Hersh and Sarang Shah, political scientists at Tufts and Berkeley:[45]

The ongoing development of the Democratic Party as a party not of labor but of socioeconomic elites, and the ongoing development of the Republican Party as a party not of business but of working-class social conservatives, represents a major, perhaps the major, American political development of the 21st century.

Impact of third-party voting

While independent/third party candidates often do better in polls than actual election performance, early polling suggests there could be a strong showing for third-party candidates in 2024. Third party candidates currently have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot’s high poll numbers in the 1990s.[47] Polls are especially high for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the Democratic Party primaries to run as an independent.[48]

Campaign issues

Abortion legality

Legal abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[7] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[49] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[7][49]

In 2022, six states held elections for ballot measures relating to the legality of abortion, and the pro-abortion rights side was victorious in every case, including in states easily won by President Trump.[50] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[7]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right.[51] The topic of abortion will likely play a role in the Republican primary; some candidates, such as senator Tim Scott, support federal restrictions on abortion,[52] while other candidates including former president Donald Trump do not support federal restrictions on the procedure.[53][7][54] The topic has not received much attention from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also running for president and is widely seen as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump. However, when a six-week abortion restriction was authorized by the Florida Legislature, DeSantis signed it into law on that day.[55] In September 2023, Republican candidates attacked Trump for calling Florida's six-week abortion ban "a terrible mistake", while disputing with each other over whether a federal ban should be imposed, or whether this should be left to the states to decide.[56]

Economic issues

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[57] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[58][59] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[60] Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[61][62]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[63] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[64] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[65]

Education

Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $32 billion in relief, including for borrowers who had educational institutions who misled them on job placement, for borrowers who have become permanently disabled, and for borrowers enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.[66] In August 2022, a plan was unveiled that would eliminate $10,000 in student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000.[67] $20,000 would be eliminated for borrowers of Pell Grants, a program aimed at providing need-based assistance.[68] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska, which ruled that the HEROES Act, which the Biden administration had relied upon for authority, did not allow for widespread loan forgiveness.[69][70] Biden intends to implement new methods of student debt relief, working around the Supreme Court decision.[71]

Some Republican candidates/prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[72][73][8] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[74]

Election interference

Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of 2023.[75][76] Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[77][78] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[79]

In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not going away anytime soon."[80] Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S. Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."[81]

Voluminous public polling has shown that large majorities of Americans belonging to both political parties believe that democracy in the United States is at risk.[82] Voters often cite different sources of threats to democracy depending on ideology. Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[83] Many conservatives believe that the Democrats cheated in the 2020 election,[84] and attempted or were still attempting to remove former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment.[85] Voters of both parties tend to agree that the influence of money in politics, the potential for political violence, and general corruption of public officials are aggravating factors threatening the health of American democracy.[86]

Firearms regulation

During a National Rifle Association (NRA) conference in Indianapolis on April 14, 2023, Donald Trump and other potential Republican presidential candidates expressed their support for gun owners' rights, on the heels of recent mass shootings in Nashville and Louisville. Democrats criticized the GOP's march of candidates in front of the NRA, saying firearms will be a big issue throughout the 2024 election year.[55]

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass an assault weapons ban following the shooting in Nashville.[87] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is against gun control.[88]

Foreign policy

The Israel-Hamas War and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the campaign.[89]

The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[90] Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression."[91] Some candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[92] Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories.[93]

During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[94] He is considered to be the most pro-Israel candidate in the race, and has stated that he is a "Zionist in his heart".[95] Trump has been seen as generally supportive of Israel, but has become more critical of their policies since the 2020 presidential election, particularly those of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has criticized the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and stated "I don’t think Bibi ever wanted to make peace [with the Palestinians]."[96] Kennedy condemned the massacres of Israeli citizens by Hamas.[97] Kennedy has said he wants to "end the proxy wars, bombing campaigns, covert operations, coups, paramilitaries, and everything else that has become so normal most people don’t know what’s happening."[98]

The question of American support towards Israel is seen as a crucial issue for Arab American and Jewish American communities. Polls taken since the start of the Israel-Hamas war have indicated that 68% of Arab Americans support a ceasefire and an end to military aid towards Israel, with Biden's support among Arab voters plummeting to 17%.[99][100] 70% of American Jews have expressed feeling less safe than they did before the war, although opinions on Israel have remained divided among the wider community.[101][102]

LGBT rights

During the 2020s, the subject of gender identity became a prominent topic in American politics, particularly regarding athletics and transgender-related healthcare for minors.[103][104] In a February campaign message, Donald Trump said that if re-elected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, stated that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Ron DeSantis has signed several anti-LGBT laws as Governor of Florida, including the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, referred to by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools.[105]

Healthcare issues

The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[106] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[107]

According to Deseret News, Kennedy has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines, and telling Bill Maher in an interview that "all I'm saying" is that "let's test [vaccines] the way we test other medicines. That does not seem unreasonable".[4]

Democratic Party

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[108][109] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[110] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[111] and some prominent Democrats (Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham) publicly urged Biden not to run.[112][113][114] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[115] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[116] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[117][118] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[119]

Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[120] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[121] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer and author.[122][123] Beginning in July 2023, Kennedy's support remained between 10 and 15 percent in the RealClear Politics average of polls taken among likely voters in the Democratic primary.[124] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[125] While Kennedy had been a lifelong Democrat, his net approval rating among Democrats was significantly lower than his net approval rating among Republican voters. In a New York Times/Sienna College poll taken in late July, Kennedy had a net 31% disapproval rating among Democrats, but a net 36% approval rating among Republicans.[126] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[127]

Declared candidates

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref
 
Joe Biden
November 20, 1942
(age 80)
Scranton, Pennsylvania
President of the United States
(2021–present)

Vice President of the United States
(2009–2017)
U.S. Senator from Delaware
(1973–2009)
 
Delaware
 
Campaign
April 25, 2023
FEC filing[128]
Website
[108]
 
Dean Phillips
January 20, 1969
(age 54)
Saint Paul, Minnesota
U.S. Representative from MN-03
(2019–present)

CEO of Phillips Distilling Company
(2000–2012)
 
Minnesota
 
Campaign

October 26, 2023
FEC filing[129]
Website

[130]
 
Marianne
Williamson
July 8, 1952
(age 71)
Houston, Texas
Author
Founder of Project Angel Food
Candidate for President in 2020
 
California
 
Campaign

March 4, 2023
FEC filing[131]
Website

[132]

Other declared candidates

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced
Campaign
suspended
Campaign Ref.
 
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
January 17, 1954
(age 69)
Washington, D.C.
Environmental lawyer
Founder of Children's Health Defense
Founder of Waterkeeper Alliance
Anti-vaccine activist
  California April 19, 2023 October 9, 2023
(running as an independent)
 
Campaign
FEC filing[142][143]
Website
[144][145]

Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include:

Republican Party

Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is eligible to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland.[148] He filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[149][150] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[151] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[152]

In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[153] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[154][155]

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[156][157][158] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[159] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[160] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[161]

Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has since gained ground and is in second place in New Hampshire, in polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, as of early November 2023.[162]

Declared candidates

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref.
 
Doug Burgum
August 1, 1956
(age 67)
Arthur, North Dakota
Governor of North Dakota
(2016–present)

Senior VP of Microsoft Business Solutions Group
(2002–2007)
President of Great Plains Software
(1984–2001)
 
North Dakota
 
Campaign
June 7, 2023
FEC filing[163]
Website
[164]
 
Chris Christie
September 6, 1962
(age 61)
Newark, New Jersey
Governor of New Jersey
(2010–2018)

Candidate for president (2016)
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey
(2002–2008)
 
New Jersey
 
Campaign
June 6, 2023
FEC filing[165]
Website
[166]
 
Ron DeSantis
September 14, 1978
(age 45)
Jacksonville, Florida
Governor of Florida
(2019–present)

U.S. Representative from FL-06
(2013–2018)
 
Florida
 
Campaign
May 24, 2023
FEC filing[167][168][169]
Website
[170]
 
Nikki Haley
January 20, 1972
(age 51)
Bamberg, South Carolina
Ambassador to the United Nations
(2017–2018)

Governor of South Carolina
(2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative
(2005–2011)
 
South Carolina
 
Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[171]
Website
[172]
 
Asa Hutchinson
December 3, 1950
(age 72)
Bentonville, Arkansas
Governor of Arkansas
(2015–2023)

Under Secretary of Homeland Security
(2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration
(2001–2003)
 
Arkansas
 
Campaign
April 6, 2023
FEC filing[173]
Website
[174]
 
Vivek Ramaswamy
August 9, 1985
(age 38)
Cincinnati, Ohio
Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management
(2022–2023)[175]

CEO of Roivant Sciences
(2014–2021)
 
Ohio
 
Campaign
February 21, 2023
FEC filing[176][177]
Website
[178]
 
Donald Trump
June 14, 1946
(age 77)
Queens, New York
President of the United States
(2017–2021)

Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–2017)
 
Florida[b]
 
Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[179][180]
Website
[181]

Other declared candidates

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced
Campaign
suspended
Campaign Ref.
 
Tim Scott
September 19, 1965
(age 58)
North Charleston, South Carolina
U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2013–present)

U.S. Representative from SC-01
(2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative
(2009–2011)
  South Carolina May 19, 2023 November 12, 2023  
Campaign
FEC filing[185][186]
Website
[187][188]
 
Mike Pence
June 7, 1959
(age 64)
Columbus, Indiana
Vice President of the United States
(2017–2021)

Governor of Indiana
(2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from IN-06 (2003–2013)
U.S. Representative from IN-02 (2001–2003)
  Indiana June 5, 2023 October 28, 2023  
Campaign
FEC filing[189]
Website
[190][191]
 
Larry Elder
April 27, 1952
(age 71)
Los Angeles, California
Host of The Larry Elder Show
(1993–2022)

Candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election
  California April 20, 2023 October 26, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
 
Campaign
FEC filing[192]
Website
[193][194]
 
Perry Johnson
January 23, 1948
(age 75)
Dolton, Illinois
Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars, Inc.
(1994–present)

Disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022
  Michigan March 2, 2023 October 20, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
 
Campaign
FEC filing[195]
Website
[196][197][198]
 
Will Hurd
August 19, 1977
(age 46)
San Antonio, Texas
U.S. Representative from TX-23
(2015–2021)
  Texas June 22, 2023 October 9, 2023
(endorsed Haley)
 
Campaign
FEC filing[199]
Website
[200][201]
 
Francis Suarez
October 6, 1977
(age 45)
Miami, Florida
Mayor of Miami
(2017–present)

Member of the Miami City Commission (2009–2017)
  Florida June 14, 2023 August 29, 2023  
Campaign
FEC filing[202]
Website[c]
[203][204]


Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include:

Independent/third party

The large majority of third-party support in polling has gone to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who seems to have drawn widespread support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American politics, winning a plurality among independents,[6] and drawing support across ideological lines.[citation needed] A October 26–30, 2023 Quinnipiac poll found that Kennedy would receive 22% of the vote if the election was a three-way race held when taken.[6] In a November 2023 poll conducted by Siena College Research Institute, he leads among a plurality of battleground state voters under the age of 45.[5] He has faced criticism for supporting various conspiracy theories, particularly on the John F. Kennedy assassination and COVID-19 vaccines.[210] Polling has indicated that voters predominately do not care about this, and it may even help Kennedy in polling.[citation needed]

Centrist political organization No Labels, which helped create the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the United States House of Representatives, also said they would consider running a third-party candidate, citing popular polling for such a candidate.[211]

Notable nominated candidates

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

American Solidarity Party

Prohibition Party

Party for Socialism and Liberation

  • Claudia de la Cruz, political activist[212]

Notable declared candidates

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Independents

Declared major independent candidates
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Campaign Ref
 
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
January 17, 1954
(age 69)
Washington, D.C.
Environmental lawyer
Founder of Children's Health Defense
Founder of Waterkeeper Alliance
Anti-vaccine activist
  California April 19, 2023
(as a Democrat)
October 9, 2023
(as an independent)
 
Campaign
FEC filing[213][214]
Website
[215][216]
 
Cornel West
June 2, 1953
(age 70)
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Academic and activist   California June 5, 2023
(for the People's Party)
June 14, 2023
(for the Green Party)
October 5, 2023
(as an independent)
 
Campaign
Website
[217]
Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates in the 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref.
 
Jacob Hornberger
January 28, 1950
(age 73)
Laredo, Texas
Founder and President of the Future of Freedom Foundation
Independent candidate for U.S. Senate from Virginia in 2002
Candidate for President in 2000 and 2020
 
Virginia
 
Website
February 20, 2023
FEC filing[221]
[222]
 
Lars Mapstead
August 14, 1969
(age 54)
Monterey, California
Co-founder of Friend Finder Networks[223]
 
California

Website
March 23, 2021
FEC filing[224]
[223]
 

Chase Oliver

August 16, 1985
(age 38)
Nashville, Tennessee
Nominee for U.S. Senator from Georgia in 2022
Candidate for GA-05 in 2020
Chair of the Atlanta Libertarian Party (2016–2017)
 
Georgia
 
Website
April 5, 2023
FEC filing[225]
[226]
 

Michael Rectenwald

January 29, 1959
(age 64)
Author and Scholar
Former Liberal and Global Liberal Studies professor at New York University (2008–2019)
 
Pennsylvania
 
Website
August 28, 2023
FEC filing[227]
[222]

 

Joshua Smith

March 13, 1983
(age 40)
Antioch, California
Vice Chair of the Libertarian National Committee
(2022–2023)
 
Iowa

Website
July 24, 2023
FEC filing[228]
[222]
 

Mike ter Maat

June 20, 1961
(age 62)
Economist
Former Hallandale Beach, Florida police officer
Nominee for FL-20 in 2022
 
Florida
 
Website
April 18, 2022
FEC filing[229]
[223]

Green Party


Declared candidates for the 2024 Green Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Ref.
 
Jill Stein
May 14, 1950
(age 73)
Chicago, Illinois
Nominee for president in 2012 and 2016  
Massachusetts
 
Website
November 9, 2023
[230]
 
Randy Toler
1956 (age 66–67)
Illinois
Co-founder of the Green Party
Co-chair of the Florida Green Party
Perennial candidate
 
Florida
Website
August 3, 2021
[231][232][233]

Potential candidates

Independent/other party

No Labels

Withdrawn candidates

The following notable individuals announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:

Forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections (all three) are omitted for brevity.

State EVs PVI[242] 2020
result
2020
margin[243]
IE
April 26,
2023
[244]
Sabato
June 29,
2023
[245]
Cook
July 27,
2023
[246]
Alaska 3 R+8 52.8% R 10.06% Solid R Likely R Solid R
Arizona 11 R+2 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tossup
Florida 30 R+3 51.2% R 3.36% Lean R Likely R Likely R
Georgia 16 R+3 49.5% D 0.24% Tossup Tossup Tossup
Iowa 6 R+6 53.1% R 8.20% Likely R Likely R Solid R
Maine[h] 2 D+2 53.1% D 9.07% Likely D Likely D Likely D
ME–02[h] 1 R+6 52.3% R 7.44% Lean R Lean R Likely R
Michigan 15 R+1 50.6% D 2.78% Tilt D Lean D Lean D
Minnesota 10 D+1 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Likely D
NE–02[h] 1 EVEN 52.0% D 6.50% Lean D Lean D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 52.7% D 7.35% Lean D Lean D Likely D
Nevada 6 R+1 50.1% D 2.39% Tilt D Tossup Lean D
New Mexico 5 D+3 54.3% D 10.79% Solid D Likely D Solid D
North Carolina 16 R+3 49.9% R 1.35% Tilt R Lean R Lean R
Ohio 17 R+6 53.3% R 8.03% Likely R Likely R Solid R
Pennsylvania 19 R+2 50.0% D 1.16% Tossup Lean D Tossup
Texas 40 R+5 52.1% R 5.58% Likely R Likely R Likely R
Virginia 13 D+3 54.1% D 10.11% Likely D Likely D Solid D
Wisconsin 10 R+2 49.5% D 0.63% Tossup Tossup Tossup
Overall D - 247
R - 235
56 tossups
D - 260
R - 235
43 tossups
D - 247
R - 235
56 tossups

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Uygur is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for the office.[141]
  2. ^ Trump's original state of residence was New York, but that changed when he moved to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.
  3. ^ August 23, 2023, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ Cheney is a member of the Republican Party, but has been named as a potential candidate for an independent or third party run.
  5. ^ Cassidy is a member of the Republican Party, but has expressed willingness to talk to the group No Labels about a third-party run.
  6. ^ Hogan is a member of the Republican Party, but has been named as a potential candidate for a "unity ticket" for the group No Labels.
  7. ^ Manchin is a member of the Democratic Party, but has been named as a potential candidate for a "unity ticket" for the group No Labels.
  8. ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.

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2024, united, states, presidential, election, related, races, 2024, united, states, elections, will, 60th, quadrennial, presidential, election, scheduled, tuesday, november, 2024, voters, will, elect, president, vice, president, term, four, years, incumbent, p. For related races see 2024 United States elections The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election scheduled for Tuesday November 5 2024 1 Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years Incumbent President Joe Biden a member of the Democratic Party is running for re election 2 His predecessor Donald Trump a member of the Republican Party is running for re election to a second nonconsecutive term 3 If Trump wins he will become the second president to achieve this feat after Grover Cleveland If both are nominated by their respective parties it will mark the first presidential rematch since 1956 and the first featuring an incumbent and former president since 1912 A number of primary election challengers have also declared their candidacies for the nomination of both major parties The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20 2025 2024 United States presidential election 2020 November 5 2024 2028 538 members of the Electoral College270 electoral votes needed to winOpinion polls Nominee TBD TBD Robert F Kennedy Jr discuss Party Democratic Republican IndependentHome state TBD TBD CaliforniaRunning mate TBD TBD TBD2024 electoral map based on 2020 censusIncumbent PresidentJoe BidenDemocraticPrior to the general election political parties will choose their nominees at nominating conventions Delegates to the nominating conventions will be chosen by voters in state level caucuses and primary elections In October 2023 environmental lawyer Robert F Kennedy Jr announced his run as an independent presidential candidate 4 he received polling aggregation in the lower to middle 20 percentile in a three way race the following month 5 6 The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the U S Senate and the U S House Several states will also hold gubernatorial and state legislative elections Abortion access 7 healthcare education 8 gun control 9 LGBT rights the state of the economy 10 and climate change 11 are expected to be leading campaign issues Contents 1 Background 1 1 Procedure 1 2 Electoral map 1 2 1 Effects of the 2020 census 1 2 2 Electoral partisanship 1 3 Impact of third party voting 2 Campaign issues 2 1 Abortion legality 2 2 Economic issues 2 3 Education 2 4 Election interference 2 5 Firearms regulation 2 6 Foreign policy 2 7 LGBT rights 2 8 Healthcare issues 3 Democratic Party 3 1 Declared candidates 3 2 Other declared candidates 3 3 Withdrawn candidates before the primaries 4 Republican Party 4 1 Declared candidates 4 2 Other declared candidates 4 3 Withdrawn candidates before the primaries 5 Independent third party 5 1 Notable nominated candidates 5 1 1 American Solidarity Party 5 1 2 Prohibition Party 5 1 3 Party for Socialism and Liberation 5 2 Notable declared candidates 5 2 1 Independents 5 2 1 1 Declared major independent candidates 5 2 1 2 Other candidates 5 2 2 Libertarian Party 5 2 3 Green Party 5 3 Potential candidates 5 3 1 Independent other party 5 3 2 No Labels 5 4 Withdrawn candidates 6 Forecasts 7 See also 8 Notes 9 ReferencesBackgroundProcedure Main article United States presidential election Procedure Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president the individual must be a natural born citizen of the United States be at least 35 years old and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years The Twenty second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party s national convention Each party s national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party s ticket The nominee for president usually picks the running mate who is then ratified by the delegates at the party s convention The general election in November is an indirect election in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College these electors then directly elect the president and vice president 12 Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel improve security and extend training This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump s loss in the 2020 election 13 Both Biden and Trump have announced that they are running for president in 2024 suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956 14 If Trump is elected he would become the second president to win a second non consecutive term joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892 15 Electoral map Effects of the 2020 census Main article 2020 United States redistricting cycle This will be the first U S presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census 16 17 If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections in 2024 Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans 235 a slight change from Biden s 306 electoral votes and Trump s 232 meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census 18 Electoral partisanship Further information Red states and blue states nbsp Expected partisan lean of the 50 U S states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level The shading of each state denotes the winner s two party vote share averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray In recent presidential elections most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties Because of the nature of the Electoral College this means that the various swing states competitive states that swing between the Democratic and Republican parties are vital to winning the presidency As of now these include states in the Rust Belt such as Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania and states in the Sun Belt such as Nevada Arizona and Georgia 19 North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state due to the close result in the previous presidential election in which Trump only won by 1 34 20 Due to gradual demographic shifts some former swing states such as Iowa Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans favoring them in future statewide and local elections Meanwhile states like Colorado New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats and the party has become the dominant political force there 21 22 23 The Democratic electoral coalition securing the blue states for Democratic presidential candidates performs best among Jewish and Black voters 24 25 whites who are wealthy or postgraduates 26 or live in urban areas 27 Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal but since the 1970s many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more diverse and culturally liberal 28 Conversely the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many red states is mainly composed of rural white voters evangelicals the elderly and non college educated voters 29 Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban middle class voters since the 1950s but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement 30 The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate underperforming there significantly 31 Under Biden Democrats embraced the principles of internationalism supporting large scale military aid to Israel and Ukraine in order for them to achieve their strategic objectives 32 Republican voters have become profoundly less interventionist 33 and have increasingly become opposed to funding either Israel or Ukraine in their respective wars arguing for what they see as a foreign policy that would put America First 34 35 The 2010s has been widely been seen as ending the Reagan Era as Republican voters emphasis and opinion on social issues has radically changed with same sex marriage becoming overwhelmingly accepted among Republican voters 33 There has been a strong and more aggressive emphasis on social conservatism and a tooth and nail middle finger unwillingness to accept liberal social norms 36 Many of the voters attracted by Trump have opinions at odds with Republican Christian traditional social conservatives they did not oppose or even care about abortion or same sex marriage much less stem cell research 37 but instead accepted with varying degrees of enthusiasm pornography homosexuality drug use legalized gambling and whatever GamerGate was about but do side with conservatives in having concerns about political correctness and SJWs opposition to the popularization of so called critical race theory and sentimentality and love for America 37 In recent years the two coalitions of the parties have changed radically in composition 38 with minority groups particularly those who are Arab 39 Asian 40 Hispanic 41 42 the non college educated lower income and those under 35 increasingly trending towards the Republicans 43 44 Jewish and college educated affluent white voters have trended towards the Democrats 45 44 In 2023 Axios stated that the last several decades have ushered in a dramatic political realignment as the GOP has broadened its appeal to a more racially and ethnically diverse working class and Democrats have become the party of wealthier more educated voters and that nine of the top 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats 46 According to Eitan Hersh and Sarang Shah political scientists at Tufts and Berkeley 45 The ongoing development of the Democratic Party as a party not of labor but of socioeconomic elites and the ongoing development of the Republican Party as a party not of business but of working class social conservatives represents a major perhaps the major American political development of the 21st century Impact of third party voting While independent third party candidates often do better in polls than actual election performance early polling suggests there could be a strong showing for third party candidates in 2024 Third party candidates currently have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot s high poll numbers in the 1990s 47 Polls are especially high for Robert F Kennedy Jr who dropped out of the Democratic Party primaries to run as an independent 48 Campaign issuesAbortion legality Main article Abortion in the United StatesLegal abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion The first is the 2022 Dobbs v Jackson Women s Health Organization decision in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade leaving abortion law entirely to the states including bans on abortion 7 The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v U S Food and Drug Administration in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA s approval of mifepristone in 2000 which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts 49 Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers 7 49 In 2022 six states held elections for ballot measures relating to the legality of abortion and the pro abortion rights side was victorious in every case including in states easily won by President Trump 50 By April 2023 a large majority of Republican controlled states had passed near total bans on abortion rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the United States According to the Kaiser Family Foundation there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest 7 Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right 51 The topic of abortion will likely play a role in the Republican primary some candidates such as senator Tim Scott support federal restrictions on abortion 52 while other candidates including former president Donald Trump do not support federal restrictions on the procedure 53 7 54 The topic has not received much attention from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who is also running for president and is widely seen as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump However when a six week abortion restriction was authorized by the Florida Legislature DeSantis signed it into law on that day 55 In September 2023 Republican candidates attacked Trump for calling Florida s six week abortion ban a terrible mistake while disputing with each other over whether a federal ban should be imposed or whether this should be left to the states to decide 56 Economic issues Main article Economy of the United States Further information U S federal government response to the COVID 19 pandemic The COVID 19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024 57 A period of high inflation began in 2021 caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply chain crisis which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 58 59 Opinion polling over Biden s handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021 60 Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election 61 62 Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities 63 Temporary childcare measures including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents but these would expire before the 2024 election 64 Biden stated that offering universal pre kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term 65 Education Main article Education in the United StatesFurther information 2020s controversies around critical race theory Under the Biden administration several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued totaling over 32 billion in relief including for borrowers who had educational institutions who misled them on job placement for borrowers who have become permanently disabled and for borrowers enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program 66 In August 2022 a plan was unveiled that would eliminate 10 000 in student loan debt for single graduates making less than 125 000 or married couples making less than 250 000 67 20 000 would be eliminated for borrowers of Pell Grants a program aimed at providing need based assistance 68 In June 2023 this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v Nebraska which ruled that the HEROES Act which the Biden administration had relied upon for authority did not allow for widespread loan forgiveness 69 70 Biden intends to implement new methods of student debt relief working around the Supreme Court decision 71 Some Republican candidates prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment 72 73 8 Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U S history 74 Election interference Main article Election interference Further information Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and January 6 United States Capitol attack Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud and has continued denying the election results as of 2023 update 75 76 Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election 77 78 Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results 79 In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack FBI director Christopher A Wray testified that far right domestic terrorism has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now and it s not going away anytime soon 80 Ali Alexander who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U S Capitol attack stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 for whatever the Congress certifies 81 Voluminous public polling has shown that large majorities of Americans belonging to both political parties believe that democracy in the United States is at risk 82 Voters often cite different sources of threats to democracy depending on ideology Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election 83 Many conservatives believe that the Democrats cheated in the 2020 election 84 and attempted or were still attempting to remove former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary including impeachment and indictment 85 Voters of both parties tend to agree that the influence of money in politics the potential for political violence and general corruption of public officials are aggravating factors threatening the health of American democracy 86 Firearms regulation Main articles Gun violence in the United States and Mass shootings in the United States During a National Rifle Association NRA conference in Indianapolis on April 14 2023 Donald Trump and other potential Republican presidential candidates expressed their support for gun owners rights on the heels of recent mass shootings in Nashville and Louisville Democrats criticized the GOP s march of candidates in front of the NRA saying firearms will be a big issue throughout the 2024 election year 55 President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass an assault weapons ban following the shooting in Nashville 87 Robert F Kennedy Jr is against gun control 88 Foreign policy Main article Foreign policy of the United States The Israel Hamas War and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the campaign 89 The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine 90 Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression 91 Some candidates including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States and that the plan should be more limited 92 Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U S military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories 93 During the Israel Hamas war Biden announced unequivocal military support for Israel and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism 94 He is considered to be the most pro Israel candidate in the race and has stated that he is a Zionist in his heart 95 Trump has been seen as generally supportive of Israel but has become more critical of their policies since the 2020 presidential election particularly those of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Trump has criticized the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and stated I don t think Bibi ever wanted to make peace with the Palestinians 96 Kennedy condemned the massacres of Israeli citizens by Hamas 97 Kennedy has said he wants to end the proxy wars bombing campaigns covert operations coups paramilitaries and everything else that has become so normal most people don t know what s happening 98 The question of American support towards Israel is seen as a crucial issue for Arab American and Jewish American communities Polls taken since the start of the Israel Hamas war have indicated that 68 of Arab Americans support a ceasefire and an end to military aid towards Israel with Biden s support among Arab voters plummeting to 17 99 100 70 of American Jews have expressed feeling less safe than they did before the war although opinions on Israel have remained divided among the wider community 101 102 LGBT rights Main articles LGBT rights in the United States and Transgender rights in the United States Further information 2020s anti LGBT movement in the United States During the 2020s the subject of gender identity became a prominent topic in American politics particularly regarding athletics and transgender related healthcare for minors 103 104 In a February campaign message Donald Trump said that if re elected he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders stated that being transgender is a concept made up by the radical left and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans Ron DeSantis has signed several anti LGBT laws as Governor of Florida including the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act referred to by critics as the Don t Say Gay law which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools 105 Healthcare issues The issue of healthcare and drug policy including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system 106 and the COVID 19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election 107 According to Deseret News Kennedy has attempted to moderate his anti vaccine position before the election stating that he is not against all vaccines and telling Bill Maher in an interview that all I m saying is that let s test vaccines the way we test other medicines That does not seem unreasonable 4 Democratic PartyMain article 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries On April 25 2023 President Joe Biden announced his run for re election keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate 108 109 Consequently Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office 110 During late 2021 as Biden was facing low approval ratings there was speculation that he would not seek re election 111 and some prominent Democrats Representatives Carolyn Maloney Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham publicly urged Biden not to run 112 113 114 In addition to Biden s unpopularity many are concerned about his age he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term If re elected he would be 86 at the end of his second term 115 According to an NBC poll released in April 2023 70 percent of Americans including 51 percent of Democrats believe Biden should not run for a second term Almost half said it was because of his age According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average Biden s current approval rating is 41 percent while 55 percent disapprove 116 There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party s progressive faction 117 118 After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party s nomination had increased 119 Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023 before Biden announced his own candidacy for re election Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 120 In April 2023 Robert F Kennedy Jr announced his candidacy for the nomination 121 A member of the Kennedy family he is an environmental lawyer and author 122 123 Beginning in July 2023 Kennedy s support remained between 10 and 15 percent in the RealClear Politics average of polls taken among likely voters in the Democratic primary 124 On October 9 2023 Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate 125 While Kennedy had been a lifelong Democrat his net approval rating among Democrats was significantly lower than his net approval rating among Republican voters In a New York Times Sienna College poll taken in late July Kennedy had a net 31 disapproval rating among Democrats but a net 36 approval rating among Republicans 126 Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26 127 Declared candidates Declared major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries Name Born Experience Home state Campaign Announcement date Ref nbsp Joe Biden November 20 1942 age 80 Scranton Pennsylvania President of the United States 2021 present Vice President of the United States 2009 2017 U S Senator from Delaware 1973 2009 nbsp Delaware nbsp Campaign April 25 2023 FEC filing 128 Website 108 nbsp Dean Phillips January 20 1969 age 54 Saint Paul Minnesota U S Representative from MN 03 2019 present CEO of Phillips Distilling Company 2000 2012 nbsp Minnesota nbsp Campaign October 26 2023 FEC filing 129 Website 130 nbsp MarianneWilliamson July 8 1952 age 71 Houston Texas AuthorFounder of Project Angel FoodCandidate for President in 2020 nbsp California nbsp CampaignMarch 4 2023 FEC filing 131 Website 132 Other declared candidates Terrisa Bukovinac founder of Pro Life San Francisco and Progressive Anti Abortion Uprising PAAU former president of Democrats for Life of America 133 134 135 Joe Exotic businessman and media personality independent candidate for president in 2016 136 Paperboy Prince performance artist activist and perennial candidate 137 Vermin Supreme performance artist activist and perennial candidate former Libertarian Party Judicial Committee member 2020 2022 138 Cenk Uygur creator of The Young Turks co founder of Justice Democrats Democratic candidate for California s 25th congressional district in 2020 139 140 a Withdrawn candidates before the primaries Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries Name Born Experience Home state Campaignannounced Campaignsuspended Campaign Ref nbsp Robert F Kennedy Jr January 17 1954 age 69 Washington D C Environmental lawyerFounder of Children s Health DefenseFounder of Waterkeeper AllianceAnti vaccine activist nbsp California April 19 2023 October 9 2023 running as an independent nbsp CampaignFEC filing 142 143 Website 144 145 Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include Jerome Segal research scholar and Bread and Roses Party nominee for president in 2020 running for U S Senate in Maryland 146 147 Republican PartyMain article 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries Donald Trump the then incumbent president was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is eligible to run again in 2024 making him the fifth ex president to seek a second non consecutive term If he wins Trump would be the second president to win a non consecutive term after Grover Cleveland 148 He filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission FEC on November 15 2022 and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar a Lago the same day 149 150 Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15 2022 151 Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re election and wins the Republican presidential nomination his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate 152 In March 2023 Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels 153 Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments 154 155 Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022 156 157 158 On May 24 2023 DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk American decline is not inevitable it is a choice I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback DeSantis added His campaign stated to have raised 1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy 159 Speaking on Fox amp Friends he stated that he would destroy leftism in the United States 160 At the end of July 2023 FiveThirtyEight s national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent and DeSantis at 15 161 Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has since gained ground and is in second place in New Hampshire in polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics as of early November 2023 162 Declared candidates Declared major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries Name Born Experience Home state Campaign Announcement date Ref nbsp Doug Burgum August 1 1956 age 67 Arthur North Dakota Governor of North Dakota 2016 present Senior VP of Microsoft Business Solutions Group 2002 2007 President of Great Plains Software 1984 2001 nbsp North Dakota nbsp CampaignJune 7 2023 FEC filing 163 Website 164 nbsp Chris Christie September 6 1962 age 61 Newark New Jersey Governor of New Jersey 2010 2018 Candidate for president 2016 U S Attorney for the District of New Jersey 2002 2008 nbsp New Jersey nbsp CampaignJune 6 2023 FEC filing 165 Website 166 nbsp Ron DeSantis September 14 1978 age 45 Jacksonville Florida Governor of Florida 2019 present U S Representative from FL 06 2013 2018 nbsp Florida nbsp CampaignMay 24 2023 FEC filing 167 168 169 Website 170 nbsp Nikki Haley January 20 1972 age 51 Bamberg South Carolina Ambassador to the United Nations 2017 2018 Governor of South Carolina 2011 2017 South Carolina State Representative 2005 2011 nbsp South Carolina nbsp CampaignFebruary 14 2023 FEC filing 171 Website 172 nbsp Asa Hutchinson December 3 1950 age 72 Bentonville Arkansas Governor of Arkansas 2015 2023 Under Secretary of Homeland Security 2003 2005 Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration 2001 2003 nbsp Arkansas nbsp CampaignApril 6 2023 FEC filing 173 Website 174 nbsp Vivek Ramaswamy August 9 1985 age 38 Cincinnati Ohio Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management 2022 2023 175 CEO of Roivant Sciences 2014 2021 nbsp Ohio nbsp CampaignFebruary 21 2023 FEC filing 176 177 Website 178 nbsp Donald Trump June 14 1946 age 77 Queens New York President of the United States 2017 2021 Chairman of The Trump Organization 1971 2017 nbsp Florida b nbsp CampaignNovember 15 2022 FEC filing 179 180 Website 181 Other declared candidates Ryan Binkley CEO of Generational Equity Group 2006 present lead pastor of Create Church 2014 present 182 John Anthony Castro tax consultant and perennial candidate 183 E W Jackson pastor and nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia in 2013 184 Withdrawn candidates before the primaries Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries Name Born Experience Home state Campaignannounced Campaignsuspended Campaign Ref nbsp Tim Scott September 19 1965 age 58 North Charleston South Carolina U S Senator from South Carolina 2013 present U S Representative from SC 01 2011 2013 South Carolina State Representative 2009 2011 nbsp South Carolina May 19 2023 November 12 2023 nbsp CampaignFEC filing 185 186 Website 187 188 nbsp Mike Pence June 7 1959 age 64 Columbus Indiana Vice President of the United States 2017 2021 Governor of Indiana 2013 2017 U S Representative from IN 06 2003 2013 U S Representative from IN 02 2001 2003 nbsp Indiana June 5 2023 October 28 2023 nbsp CampaignFEC filing 189 Website 190 191 nbsp Larry Elder April 27 1952 age 71 Los Angeles California Host of The Larry Elder Show 1993 2022 Candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election nbsp California April 20 2023 October 26 2023 endorsed Trump nbsp CampaignFEC filing 192 Website 193 194 nbsp Perry Johnson January 23 1948 age 75 Dolton Illinois Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars Inc 1994 present Disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022 nbsp Michigan March 2 2023 October 20 2023 endorsed Trump nbsp CampaignFEC filing 195 Website 196 197 198 nbsp Will Hurd August 19 1977 age 46 San Antonio Texas U S Representative from TX 23 2015 2021 nbsp Texas June 22 2023 October 9 2023 endorsed Haley nbsp CampaignFEC filing 199 Website 200 201 nbsp Francis Suarez October 6 1977 age 45 Miami Florida Mayor of Miami 2017 present Member of the Miami City Commission 2009 2017 nbsp Florida June 14 2023 August 29 2023 nbsp CampaignFEC filing 202 Website c 203 204 Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include Steve Laffey mayor of Cranston Rhode Island 2003 2007 205 206 Corey Stapleton Montana Secretary of State 2017 2021 Montana State Senator 2001 2009 207 208 209 Independent third partyMain article Third party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election The large majority of third party support in polling has gone to Robert F Kennedy Jr who seems to have drawn widespread support among independent and anti establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American politics winning a plurality among independents 6 and drawing support across ideological lines citation needed A October 26 30 2023 Quinnipiac poll found that Kennedy would receive 22 of the vote if the election was a three way race held when taken 6 In a November 2023 poll conducted by Siena College Research Institute he leads among a plurality of battleground state voters under the age of 45 5 He has faced criticism for supporting various conspiracy theories particularly on the John F Kennedy assassination and COVID 19 vaccines 210 Polling has indicated that voters predominately do not care about this and it may even help Kennedy in polling citation needed Centrist political organization No Labels which helped create the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the United States House of Representatives also said they would consider running a third party candidate citing popular polling for such a candidate 211 Notable nominated candidates The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president American Solidarity Party Peter Sonski Connecticut local public office holder and director of the Knights of Columbus MuseumProhibition Party Michael Wood businessman citation needed Party for Socialism and Liberation Claudia de la Cruz political activist 212 Notable declared candidates The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president Independents Declared major independent candidates Name Born Experience Home state Campaign Announcement date Campaign Ref nbsp Robert F Kennedy Jr January 17 1954 age 69 Washington D C Environmental lawyerFounder of Children s Health DefenseFounder of Waterkeeper AllianceAnti vaccine activist nbsp California April 19 2023 as a Democrat October 9 2023 as an independent nbsp CampaignFEC filing 213 214 Website 215 216 nbsp Cornel West June 2 1953 age 70 Tulsa Oklahoma Academic and activist nbsp California June 5 2023 for the People s Party June 14 2023 for the Green Party October 5 2023 as an independent nbsp CampaignWebsite 217 Other candidates Joseph Afroman Foreman rapper 218 Taylor Marshall podcaster and author 219 220 Libertarian Party Main article 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries Declared candidates in the 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries Name Born Experience Home state Campaign Announcement date Ref nbsp Jacob Hornberger January 28 1950 age 73 Laredo Texas Founder and President of the Future of Freedom FoundationIndependent candidate for U S Senate from Virginia in 2002Candidate for President in 2000 and 2020 nbsp Virginia nbsp WebsiteFebruary 20 2023 FEC filing 221 222 nbsp Lars Mapstead August 14 1969 age 54 Monterey California Co founder of Friend Finder Networks 223 nbsp California WebsiteMarch 23 2021 FEC filing 224 223 nbsp Chase Oliver August 16 1985 age 38 Nashville Tennessee Nominee for U S Senator from Georgia in 2022Candidate for GA 05 in 2020Chair of the Atlanta Libertarian Party 2016 2017 nbsp Georgia nbsp WebsiteApril 5 2023 FEC filing 225 226 nbsp Michael Rectenwald January 29 1959 age 64 Author and ScholarFormer Liberal and Global Liberal Studies professor at New York University 2008 2019 nbsp Pennsylvania nbsp WebsiteAugust 28 2023 FEC filing 227 222 nbsp Joshua Smith March 13 1983 age 40 Antioch California Vice Chair of the Libertarian National Committee 2022 2023 nbsp Iowa WebsiteJuly 24 2023 FEC filing 228 222 nbsp Mike ter Maat June 20 1961 age 62 EconomistFormer Hallandale Beach Florida police officerNominee for FL 20 in 2022 nbsp Florida nbsp WebsiteApril 18 2022 FEC filing 229 223 Green Party Main article 2024 Green Party presidential primaries Declared candidates for the 2024 Green Party presidential primaries Name Born Experience Home state CampaignAnnouncement date Ref nbsp Jill Stein May 14 1950 age 73 Chicago Illinois Nominee for president in 2012 and 2016 nbsp Massachusetts nbsp WebsiteNovember 9 2023 230 nbsp Randy Toler 1956 age 66 67 Illinois Co founder of the Green PartyCo chair of the Florida Green PartyPerennial candidate nbsp Florida WebsiteAugust 3 2021 231 232 233 Potential candidates Independent other party Liz Cheney United States Representative from WY AL 2017 2023 Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs 2002 2004 2005 2009 234 d Tulsi Gabbard United States Representative from HI 02 2013 2021 member of the Honolulu City Council 2011 2012 member of the Hawaii House of Representatives 2002 2004 Democratic candidate for president in 2020 235 William H McRaven Commander of the United States Special Operations Command 2011 2014 and Chancellor of the University of Texas System 2015 2018 236 Jesse Ventura 38th Governor of Minnesota 1999 2003 237 No Labels Bill Cassidy United States Senator from Louisiana 2015 present United States Representative from LA 06 2009 2015 member of the Louisiana Senate from the 16th district 2006 2009 238 e Larry Hogan 62nd Governor of Maryland 2015 2023 Secretary of Appointments of Maryland 2003 2007 239 f Joe Manchin United States Senator from West Virginia 2010 present 34th Governor of West Virginia 2005 2010 27th West Virginia Secretary of State 2001 2005 member of the West Virginia Senate from the 13th district 1986 1996 member of the West Virginia House of Delegates from the 31st district 1982 1986 240 g Withdrawn candidates The following notable individuals announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election Kanye West rapper candidate for president in 2020 campaign 241 ForecastsThis section needs to be updated Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information November 2023 Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state Most election predictors use the following ratings tossup no advantage tilt used by some predictors advantage that is not quite as strong as lean lean or leans slight advantage likely significant but surmountable advantage safe or solid near certain chance of victoryBelow is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive states that are deemed to be safe or solid by The Cook Political Report Sabato s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all three are omitted for brevity State EVs PVI 242 2020result 2020margin 243 IEApril 26 2023 244 SabatoJune 29 2023 245 CookJuly 27 2023 246 Alaska 3 R 8 52 8 R 10 06 Solid R Likely R Solid RArizona 11 R 2 49 4 D 0 31 Tossup Tossup TossupFlorida 30 R 3 51 2 R 3 36 Lean R Likely R Likely RGeorgia 16 R 3 49 5 D 0 24 Tossup Tossup TossupIowa 6 R 6 53 1 R 8 20 Likely R Likely R Solid RMaine h 2 D 2 53 1 D 9 07 Likely D Likely D Likely DME 02 h 1 R 6 52 3 R 7 44 Lean R Lean R Likely RMichigan 15 R 1 50 6 D 2 78 Tilt D Lean D Lean DMinnesota 10 D 1 52 4 D 7 11 Lean D Likely D Likely DNE 02 h 1 EVEN 52 0 D 6 50 Lean D Lean D Likely DNew Hampshire 4 D 1 52 7 D 7 35 Lean D Lean D Likely DNevada 6 R 1 50 1 D 2 39 Tilt D Tossup Lean DNew Mexico 5 D 3 54 3 D 10 79 Solid D Likely D Solid DNorth Carolina 16 R 3 49 9 R 1 35 Tilt R Lean R Lean ROhio 17 R 6 53 3 R 8 03 Likely R Likely R Solid RPennsylvania 19 R 2 50 0 D 1 16 Tossup Lean D TossupTexas 40 R 5 52 1 R 5 58 Likely R Likely R Likely RVirginia 13 D 3 54 1 D 10 11 Likely D Likely D Solid DWisconsin 10 R 2 49 5 D 0 63 Tossup Tossup TossupOverall D 247R 23556 tossups D 260R 23543 tossups D 247R 23556 tossupsSee also nbsp Politics portal nbsp United States portal2024 United States elections 2024 United States gubernatorial elections 2024 United States House of Representatives elections 2024 United States Senate elections Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential electionNotes Uygur is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural born citizen but he claims he can run for the office 141 Trump s original state of residence was New York but that changed when he moved to Mar a Lago in 2019 Archived August 23 2023 at the Wayback Machine Cheney is a member of the Republican Party but has been named as a potential candidate for an independent or third party run Cassidy is a member of the Republican Party but has expressed willingness to talk to the group No Labels about a third party run Hogan is a member of the Republican Party but has been named as a potential candidate for a unity ticket for the group No Labels Manchin is a member of the Democratic Party but has been named as a potential candidate for a unity ticket for the group No Labels a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington D C which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district References Election Planning Calendar PDF Essex Virginia org Essex County Virginia Archived PDF from the original on February 7 2016 Retrieved February 6 2016 Kinery Emma April 25 2023 Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign promising to fulfill economic policy vision CNBC Singman Brooke November 7 2022 Donald Trump announces 2024 re election run for president Fox News Archived from the original on November 16 2022 Retrieved November 16 2022 a b Benson Samuel November 2 2023 RFK Jr s big gamble Deseret News Retrieved November 3 2023 He s shared a number of controversial theories relating to school shootings and COVID 19 vaccines In more recent interviews however he s taken a more measured approach Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s a major underdog but enough to put both major party nominees on edge a b Staff November 7 2023 In 3 Way Race Independent Robert Kennedy Jr Garners 24 Across 6 Battleground States Trump 35 Biden 33 Kennedy 24 RFK Noses Ahead Among Voters Under 45 Siena College Research Institute Retrieved November 12 2023 a b c Staff November 1 2023 2024 Presidential Race Stays Static In The Face Of Major Events Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds RFK Jr Receives 22 As Independent Candidate In 3 Way Race Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Retrieved November 2 2023 a b c d e For sources on this see Edsall Thomas B April 12 2023 How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved April 12 2023 Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion of the procedure of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama Arizona Arkansas Florida Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi Missouri Ohio Oklahoma South Dakota Tennessee Texas West Virginia and Wisconsin Allison Natalie June 24 2022 Roe reversal divides 2024 GOP field Politico Archived from the original on June 28 2022 Retrieved June 25 2022 Weisman Jonathan April 11 2023 Pressured by Their Base on Abortion Republicans Strain to Find a Way Forward The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved April 12 2023 Godfrey Elaine May 4 2022 The GOP s Strange Turn Against Rape Exceptions The Atlantic Retrieved April 7 2023 a b Manchester Julia January 29 2023 Republicans see education as winning issue in 2024 The Hill Retrieved July 9 2023 Glueck Katie April 14 2023 Republican 2024 Hopefuls Embrace Gun Politics at N R A Meeting The New York Times Cook Charlie March 2 2023 Will 2024 Be About the Economy or the Candidates Cook Political Report Archived from the original on March 25 2023 Retrieved March 25 2023 Arias Maldonado Manuel January 2020 Sustainability in the Anthropocene Between Extinction and Populism Sustainability 12 6 2538 doi 10 3390 su12062538 ISSN 2071 1050 US Election guide how does the election work The Daily Telegraph November 6 2012 Archived from the original on November 10 2015 Retrieved October 29 2015 Pollard James Lieb David A April 29 2023 Presidential battleground states weigh more election funding ABC News Retrieved May 1 2023 Megerian Chris October 17 2022 For Biden and Trump 2022 is 2020 sequel and 2024 preview Associated Press Archived from the original on November 9 2022 Retrieved November 10 2022 Baker Peter December 2 2020 Trump Hints at Another Act in Four Years Just Like Grover Cleveland The New York Times Archived from the original on February 9 2021 Retrieved July 30 2022 McArdle Megan May 21 2015 2016 Might Look Safe to Democrats But 2024 Bloomberg Archived from the original on October 23 2015 Retrieved October 30 2015 Janda Kenneth 2013 The Challenge of Democracy American Government in Global Politics Wadsworth p 218 ISBN 978 1133602309 Neale Thomas 2012 The Electoral College How It Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections PDF Congressional Research Service Archived PDF from the original on October 4 2020 Retrieved October 30 2015 Dorman John L Six battleground states will hold the key to the White House in 2024 Business Insider Retrieved May 25 2023 North Carolina may be the hottest political battleground of 2024 The Economist ISSN 0013 0613 Retrieved August 9 2023 Mondeaux Cami December 30 2022 Who s in and who s out Here are the battleground states to watch in 2024 The Washington Examiner Retrieved May 25 2023 Kaul Greta November 4 2020 Biden wins Minnesota continuing decades long Democratic streak minnpost com Retrieved June 16 2023 Smith David March 8 2021 We re making our way how Virginia became the most progressive southern state The Guardian Retrieved May 25 2023 Levitz Eric October 19 2022 How the Diploma Divide Is Remaking American Politics New York Retrieved October 21 2022 Blue America is an increasingly wealthy and well educated place Throughout the second half of the 20th century Americans without college degrees were more likely than university graduates to vote Democratic But that gap began narrowing in the late 1960s before finally flipping in 2004 A more educated Democratic coalition is naturally a more affluent one In every presidential election from 1948 to 2012 white voters in the top 5 percent of America s income distribution were more Republican than those in the bottom 95 percent Now the opposite is true Among America s white majority the rich voted to the left of the middle class and the poor in 2016 and 2020 while the poor voted to the right of the middle class and the rich Edsall Thomas February 1 2023 How Much Longer Can Vote Blue No Matter Who Last The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved February 8 2023 Goldberg Zach January 31 2023 The Rise of College Educated Democrats Manhattan Institute Retrieved February 8 2023 Munis Kal Jacobs Nicholas October 20 2022 Why Resentful Rural Americans Vote Republican The Washington Post Retrieved October 21 2022 that the disproportionately White older more religious less affluent and less highly educated voters who live in rural areas are more likely to hold socially conservative views generally championed by Republicans Meanwhile urban areas are filled with younger more racially diverse more highly educated and more affluent people who hold the more socially liberal views generally championed by Democrats Brownstein Roland August 10 2021 This may be the Democrats last chance to recover working class Whites cnn com CNN Retrieved May 25 2023 Charen Mona November 9 2018 Who Votes Republican RealClearPolitics com Real Clear Politics Retrieved May 25 2023 Cost Jay Losing the Suburbs AEI com AEI Retrieved May 25 2023 Gonyea Don Amid Changing Political Landscape Suburbs No Longer Belong To GOP NPR Retrieved May 25 2023 Megerian Chris Min Kim Seung October 19 2023 Biden declares Israel and Ukraine support is vital for US security will ask Congress for billions AP News Retrieved November 5 2023 a b Cohn Nate August 10 2023 It s Not Reagan s Party Anymore The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 5 2023 Huynh Anjali October 11 2023 Israel Violence Underscores the G O P Divide on Foreign Policy The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 5 2023 Demirjian Karoun October 5 2023 Opposition to Ukraine Aid Becomes a Litmus Test for the Right The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 5 2023 Robertson Derek June 20 2021 How Republicans Became the Barstool Party Politico Retrieved August 10 2023 a b Walther Matthew February 1 2021 Rise of the Barstool conservatives The Week Retrieved August 10 2023 Ruffini Patrick November 4 2023 The Emerging Working Class Republican Majority POLITICO Retrieved November 5 2023 Shalal Andrea October 31 2023 Arab American support for Biden Democrats plummets over Israel poll shows Reuters Retrieved November 3 2023 King Hope May 31 2023 Asian American support for Democrats drops over generations Axios Retrieved November 3 2023 Paz Christian June 23 2023 The new reality about Latino voters that Democrats must accept Vox Retrieved November 3 2023 Alberta Tim November 3 2022 Why Democrats Are Losing Hispanic Voters The Atlantic Retrieved November 4 2022 Indeed this is what makes the implications of a Hispanic partisan realignment so profound At a moment when Democrats have begun to dominate the affluent college educated vote that for decades formed the cornerstone of the Republican coalition perhaps the only thing that can keep the GOP competitive is an infusion of support from the very middle and working class Hispanics who were at this moment in history supposed to deliver the Democrats a foolproof majority Teixeira Ruy November 6 2022 Democrats Long Goodbye to the Working Class The Atlantic Retrieved November 8 2022 As we move into the endgame of the 2022 election the Democrats face a familiar problem America s historical party of the working class keeps losing working class support And not just among white voters Not only has the emerging Democratic majority I once predicted failed to materialize but many of the nonwhite voters who were supposed to deliver it are instead voting for Republicans From 2012 to 2020 the Democrats not only saw their support among white working class voters those without college degrees crater they also saw their advantage among nonwhite working class voters fall by 18 points And between 2016 and 2020 alone the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters declined by 16 points overwhelmingly driven by the defection of working class voters In contrast Democrats advantage among white college educated voters improved by 16 points from 2012 to 2020 an edge that delivered Joe Biden the White House a b Goldmacher Shane November 5 2023 Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden Times Siena Poll Finds The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 5 2023 Voters under 30 favor Mr Biden by only a single percentage point his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr Trump s edge in rural regions And while women still favored Mr Biden men preferred Mr Trump by twice as large a margin reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years Black voters long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr Biden are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr Trump a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties the more diverse the swing state the farther Mr Biden was behind and he led only in the whitest of the six a b Edsall Thomas B August 16 2023 It s Not Your Father s Democratic Party But Whose Party Is It The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 3 2023 Kight Stef April 16 2023 Dramatic realignment swings working class districts toward GOP Axios Retrieved November 5 2023 Blake Aaron October 27 2023 Third party candidates see some of their best polls since Ross Perot The Washington Post Retrieved November 5 2023 Aleem Zeeshan November 3 2023 What Robert Kennedy Jr s shocking poll numbers say about 2024 MSNBC Retrieved November 5 2023 a b Kimball Spencer February 10 2023 Republicans back lawsuit to overturn FDA approval of abortion pill and pull the medication from U S market CNBC Retrieved April 15 2023 2022 abortion related ballot measures Ballotpedia Retrieved May 3 2023 Feiner Lauren May 20 2022 Democratic senators concerned about phone location data being used to track people seeking abortions CNBC Retrieved April 12 2023 News A B C As voters keep rejecting abortion restrictions GOP candidates say there s more to do ABC News Retrieved November 12 2023 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a last has generic name help Lowell Hugh April 20 2023 Trump considers federal abortion ban a vote loser and is unlikely to support one The Guardian Retrieved June 7 2023 Siders David April 6 2023 No Wisconsin wake up call Republicans go full steam ahead on abortion restrictions Politico Retrieved April 7 2023 Peoples Steve March 20 2023 Trump silent on abortion as 2024 campaign pushes forward Associated Press Archived from the original on March 21 2023 Retrieved March 22 2023 Leonhardt David April 6 2023 The Power and Limits of Abortion Politics The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved April 7 2023 After the Supreme Court overturned Roe last June and allowed states to ban abortion more than a dozen quickly imposed 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