2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[2] If he wins the state again, he will become the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February.^[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	375,110	89.3%	72		72
Marianne Williamson	15,844	3.8%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	11,611	2.8%
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)	6,128	1.5%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)	4,976	1.2%
Jason Palmer	3,752	0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	2,753	0.7%
Total:	420,174	100.0%	72	13	85
Source:^[4]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Republican Primary, March 19, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	492,299	78.84%	43		43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	110,966	17.77%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	10,131	1.62%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,078	0.81%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	2,479	0.40%
David Stuckenberg	1,367	0.22%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	891	0.14%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	714	0.11%
John Anthony Castro	505	0.08%
Total:	624,430	100.00%	43		43
Source: ^[5]

General election

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced a resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".^[6][7]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[8]	Tossup	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[9]	Tossup	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[10]	Tossup	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[11]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[12]	Tossup	December 30, 2023
CNN^[13]	Tossup	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	April 28 – May 9, 2024	626 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	49%	9%
		626 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	49%	9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)^[A]	April 7–11, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	48%	8%
The Bullfinch Group^[B]	March 29 – April 3, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18%^[b]
RABA Research	March 28–31, 2024	503 (RV)	± 4.4%	36%	39%	25%^[c]
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	47%	11%
Echelon Insights^[C]	March 12–19, 2024	401 (LV)	± 5.7%	45%	51%	4%
^[D]	March 14–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–14, 2024	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Fox News	March 7–11, 2024	1,121 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	49%	6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	February 21–26, 2024	1,001 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	47%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
J.L. Partners	January 29 – February 1, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	45%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
The Bullfinch Group	December 14–18, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	50%	10%
VCreek/AMG (R)^[E]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	41%	46%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
J.L. Partners	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	48%	9%
Tulchin Research (D)	November 13–20, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	42%	42%	16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	43%	16%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	49%	7%
Noble Predictive Insights	October 25–31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	38%	46%	16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	627 (RV)	–	39%	44%	16%
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	43%	45%	13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	July 22–24, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	44%	8%
Prime Group^[F]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	48%	52%	–
		500 (RV)	–	31%	41%	28%^[d]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	41%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	44%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	44%	11%
Rasmussen Reports (R)^[G]	March 13–14, 2023	1,001 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	50%	11%
OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	39%	37%	24%
Blueprint Polling (D)	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	35%	38%	27%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	November 8–9, 2022	874 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	45%	8%
Targoz Market Research	November 2–6, 2022	560 (LV)	± 4.1%	45%	53%	2%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 1, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College	September 6–7, 2022	627 (LV)	± 3.9%	41%	44%	15%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	47%	10%
Blueprint Polling (D)	May 12–16, 2022	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	41%	18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)^[A]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	51%	6%
Bendixen/Amandi International	June 17–23, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	44%	5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	April 28 – May 9, 2024	626 (RV)	± 4.0%	33%	42%	10%	0%	2%	13%
		626 (LV)	± 4.0%	35%	44%	8%	0%	2%	11%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	9%	1%	1%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	7%	2%	0%	5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)^[A]	April 7–11, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	37%	42%	10%	–	2%	9%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	34%	39%	13%	2%	1%	11%^[e]
Emerson College	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	46%	7%	1%	2%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–14, 2024	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	12%	2%	1%	5%
Fox News	March 7–11, 2024	1,121 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	43%	10%	1%	2%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	45%	9%	1%	1%	8%
Emerson College	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	8%	1%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	35%	43%	10%	1%	1%	10%
VCreek/AMG (R)^[E]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	32%	40%	9%	3%	2%	14%^[f]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	40%	10%	1%	1%	11%
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	39%	44%	5%	1%	0%	12%^[g]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 2–4, 2024	625 (LV)	–	42%	44%	7%	7%^[h]
Data Orbital	April 27–29, 2024	550 (LV)	± 4.26%	38.8%	38.1%	13.5%	9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	March 14–17, 2024	516 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	808 (LV)	–	35%	41%	10%	14%
VCreek/AMG (R)^[E]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	35%	40%	16%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	33%	40%	10%	17%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22– November 3, 2023	603 (LV)	±4.4	33%	33%	26%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	627 (LV)	–	37%	42%	8%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
^[D]	March 14–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	33%	37%	18%	2%	10%
J.L. Partners	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.4%	34%	39%	4%	1%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	40%	11%	1%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	42%	4%	13%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	33%	25%	19%	6%	17%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R)^[E]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	30%	37%	33%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	37%	46%	17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	34%	27%	17%	6%	16%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	46%	12%
Noble Predictive Insights	October 25 – 31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	37%	40%	23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	July 22–24, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	39%	46%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	40%	46%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	47%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%
OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	35%	36%	29%
Blueprint Polling (D)	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	37%	43%	20%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	43%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	43%	12%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	47%	9%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arizona
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
3. "Someone else" with 15%
4. No Labels candidate
5. Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
6. Joe Manchin with 4%
7. "Someone else" with 12%
8. Jill Stein (G) with 2%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
2. Poll sponsored by Independent Center
3. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
4. Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
5. Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
6. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
7. Poll sponsored by College Republicans United

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
3. Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
4. "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
5. "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
6. Stern, Ray (February 15, 2024). "Arizona lawmaker wants to give state electoral votes to GOP nominee before 2024 election". Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 18, 2024.
7. Jones, Rachel. "H.C.R. 2055" (PDF). Arizona Legislature. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
8. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.