2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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A New England state dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in almost every presidential election since the party's formation up until 1988, making exceptions for Woodrow Wilson in 1912; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the presidential level, with Dems carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow sweep in 2000. New Hampshire is a potential battleground state due to the closeness of the 2016 election and a concurrent gubernatorial election which is expected to be competitive. However, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level in recent years, as New Hampshire's congressional delegation, which is currently all Democrats, won reelection by comfortable margins in the 2022 House and Senate elections in spite of the national Republican advantage that year. As such, the Democratic candidate is considered the favorite to win in New Hampshire in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] Environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, the second state to officially grant him ballot access.[4]
Primary elections edit
New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.
Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.[5]
Democratic primary edit
On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[6] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[5][7][8]
Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[9] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.[10]
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden (incumbent; write-in) | 79,100 | 63.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 24,377 | 19.7% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 5,016 | 4.0% | |||
| Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 4,760 | 3.8% | |||
| Donald Trump (write-in) (Republican) | 2,079 | 1.7% | |||
| Derek Nadeau | 1,616 | 1.3% | |||
| "Ceasefire" (write-in)[11] | 1,512 | 1.2% | |||
| Vermin Supreme | 912 | 0.7% | |||
| John Vail | 685 | 0.6% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 439 | 0.4% | |||
| Donald Picard | 371 | 0.3% | |||
| Paperboy Prince | 326 | 0.3% | |||
| Paul V. LaCava | 176 | 0.1% | |||
| Jason Michael Palmer | 142 | 0.1% | |||
| President R. Boddie | 136 | 0.1% | |||
| Mark Stewart Greenstein | 133 | 0.1% | |||
| Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 125 | 0.1% | |||
| Terrisa Bukovinac | 101 | <0.1% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 86 | <0.1% | |||
| Stephen P. Lyons | 80 | <0.1% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 73 | <0.1% | |||
| Tom Koos | 71 | <0.1% | |||
| Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato | 68 | <0.1% | |||
| Star Locke | 59 | <0.1% | |||
| Raymond Michael Moroz | 52 | <0.1% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 47 | <0.1% | |||
| Chris Christie (write-in) (Republican) | 41 | <0.1% | |||
| Richard Rist | 37 | <0.1% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (write-in) (Republican) | 33 | <0.1% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (write-in) (Republican) | 2 | <0.1% | |||
| Other write-ins[a] | 1,341 | 1.1% | |||
| Total: | 123,996 | 100.00% | |||
| Source:[12] | |||||
No delegates were awarded from the New Hampshire primary.
Republican primary edit
The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegate count[15] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 176,391 | 54.35% | 13 |
| Nikki Haley | 140,491 | 43.28% | 9 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,241 | 0.69% | |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,493 | 0.46% | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 833 | 0.26% | |
| Joe Biden (Write-In) (Democrat) | 497 | 0.15% | |
| Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 404 | 0.12% | |
| Ryan Binkley | 315 | 0.10% | |
| Mary Maxwell | 287 | 0.09% | |
| Robert F. Kennedy (Write-In) (Independent) | 205 | 0.06% | |
| Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 196 | 0.06% | |
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 180 | 0.06% | |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 108 | 0.03% | |
| Rachel Swift | 105 | 0.03% | |
| Scott Ayers | 80 | 0.02% | |
| Dean Philips (Write-In) (Democrat) | 79 | 0.02% | |
| Darius Mitchell | 74 | 0.02% | |
| Glenn McPeters | 49 | 0.02% | |
| "Ceasefire" (Write-In) | 34 | 0.01% | |
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 26 | 0.01% | |
| Peter Jedick | 25 | 0.01% | |
| David Stuckenberg | 25 | 0.01% | |
| Donald Kjornes | 23 | 0.01% | |
| Scott Merrell | 21 | 0.01% | |
| John Anthony Castro | 19 | 0.01% | |
| Robert Carney | 15 | <0.01% | |
| Marianne Williamson (Write-In) (Democrat) | 14 | <0.01% | |
| Hirsh Singh (withdrawn) | 9 | <0.01% | |
| Sam Sloan | 7 | <0.01% | |
| Vermin Supreme (Write-In) (Democrat) | 3 | <0.01% | |
| Mark Steward Greenstein (Write-In) (Democrat) | 1 | <0.01% | |
| Other write-in votes | 325 | 0.10% | |
| Total: | 324,575 | 100.00% | 22 |
General election edit
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[16] | Likely D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Lean D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Lean D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[19] | Lean D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[20] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[21] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling edit
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Saint Anselm College | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Emerson College | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| co/efficient | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | October 14–25, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 18–19, 2022 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 14–15, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| University of New Hampshire | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 43% | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – |
| Saint Anselm College[A] | May 7–10, 2021 | 1,267 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | – |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 41% | 12% | 3% |
| Saint Anselm College | December 18–19, 2023 | 1,711 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 39% | 8% | 4% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 39% | 5% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Nikki Haley Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Ron DeSantis Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 33% | 15%[c] | 5% |
| Saint Anselm College | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 10 | 2% |
| Emerson College | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 14% | 7% |
| University of New Hampshire | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
- Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Vivek Ramaswamy Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 20% | 15%[d] | 5% |
- Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Tim Scott Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 34% | 14%[e] | 5% |
- Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Chris Christie Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 44% | 20% | 27%[f] | 10% |
- Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Mike Pence Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 20% | 25%[g] | 5% |
- Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Chris Sununu Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 44% | 14% | 6% |
| co/efficient | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 36% | 48% | – | 16% |
| Praecones Analytica | April 14–16, 2022 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 36% | 53% | – | 12% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
- Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Bernie Sanders Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47.6% | 42.5% | 9.8% |
- Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also edit
Notes edit
- ^ Reported as "scatter".
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 5%
- ^ Donald Trump with 9%; "Another candidate" with 6%
- ^ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ Donald Trump with 16%; "Another candidate" with 11%
- ^ Donald Trump with 15%; "Another candidate" with 10%
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
References edit
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "RFK Jr. says he qualifies in N.H." POLITICO. January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
- ^ a b "New Hampshire Defies National Democrats' New Calendar With January Primary Date". HuffPost. November 15, 2023. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
- ^ O'Keefe, Ed; Novak, Analisa (February 3, 2023). "New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes". CBS News. from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
- ^ Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly (April 30, 2023). "Messing with New Hampshire's primary could have consequences for Biden and the ballot, senator says". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
- ^ Sexton, Adam (July 9, 2023). "Hassan on threat to New Hampshire primary: 'We will go first'". WMUR.com. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
- ^ Schneider, Elena (October 24, 2023). "Biden won't appear on New Hampshire primary ballot". Politico. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
- ^ Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
- ^ Marrans, Daniel. "Pro-Palestine Activists Urge New Hampshire Voters To Write In 'Cease-Fire'". HuffPost.com. HuffPost. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results". NH SOS. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results – Summary by Counties". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by Write-ins – Summary by Counties". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 New Hampshire presidential primary results". AP.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.