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World population

March 25, 2023

In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took over 200,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 219 years more to reach 8 billion.[3]

World population growth from 10,000 BCE to 2021[1]
High, medium, and low projections of the future human world population[2]

The human population experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was nearly 370,000,000.[4] The highest global population growth rates, with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970.[5] The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century.[6][7] The global population is still increasing, but there is significant uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates.[8] The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs projects between 9 and 10 billion people by 2050 and gives an 80% confidence interval of 10–12 billion by the end of the 21st century,[2] with a growth rate by then of zero.[7] Other demographers predict that the human population will begin to decline in the second half of the 21st century.[9]

The total number of births globally is currently (2015–2020) 140 million/year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at 141 million/year and then decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100.[10] The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100.[11]

The median age of human beings as of 2020 is 31 years.[12]

History

 
Visual comparison of the world population in past and present
Further information: Estimates of historical world population and Human history

Estimates of world population by their nature are an aspect of modernity, possible only since the Age of Discovery. Early estimates for the population of the world[13] date to the 17th century: William Petty, in 1682, estimated the world population at 320 million (current estimates ranging close to twice this number); by the late 18th century, estimates ranged close to one billion (consistent with current estimates).[14] More refined estimates, broken down by continents, were published in the first half of the 19th century, at 600 million to 1 billion in the early 1800s and 800 million to 1 billion in the 1840s.[15]

It is difficult for estimates to be better than rough approximations, as even current population estimates are fraught with uncertainties from 3% to 5%.[16]

Ancient and post-classical history

Main articles: Classical demography and Medieval demography

Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million.[17][18] Even earlier, genetic evidence suggests humans may have gone through a population bottleneck of between 1,000 and 10,000 people about 70,000 BC, according to the now largely discredited Toba catastrophe theory. By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD.[19]

The Plague of Justinian caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between the 6th and 8th centuries AD.[20] The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340.[21] From 1340 to 1400, the world's population fell from an estimated 443 million to 350–375 million,[22] with the Indian subcontinent suffering the most tremendous loss and Europe suffering the Black Death pandemic;[23] it took 200 years for European population figures to recover.[24] The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in 1393,[25] presumably from a combination of Mongol invasions, famine, and plague.[26]

Starting in AD 2, the Han dynasty of ancient China kept consistent family registers to properly assess the poll taxes and labor service duties of each household.[27] In that year, the population of Western Han was recorded as 57,671,400 individuals in 12,366,470 households, decreasing to 47,566,772 individuals in 9,348,227 households by AD 146, towards the end of the Han dynasty.[27] From 200 to 400, the world population fell from an estimated 257 million to 206 million, with China suffering the greatest loss.[23] At the founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368, China's population was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it may have approached 150 million.[28] England's population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500.[29] New crops that were brought to Asia and Europe from the Americas by Portuguese and Spanish colonists in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth.[30][31][32] Since their introduction to Africa by Portuguese traders in the 16th century,[33] maize and cassava have similarly replaced traditional African crops as the most important staple food crops grown on the continent.[34]

The pre-Columbian population of the Americas is uncertain; historian David Henige called it "the most unanswerable question in the world."[35] By the end of the 20th century, scholarly consensus favored an estimate of roughly 55 million people, but numbers from various sources have ranged from 10 million to 100 million.[36] Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence.[37] According to the most extreme scholarly claims, as many as 90% of the Native American population of the New World died of Old World diseases such as smallpox, measles, and influenza.[38] Over the centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity.[39]

Modern history

 
Map showing urban areas with at least one million inhabitants in 2006. Only 3% of the world's population lived in urban areas in 1800; this proportion had risen to 47% by 2000, and reached 50.5% by 2010.[40] By 2050, the proportion may reach 70%.[41]

During the European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.[42] The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730–1749 to 31.8% in 1810–1829.[43][44] Between 1700 and 1900, Europe's population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million.[45] Altogether, the areas populated by people of European descent comprised 36% of the world's population in 1900.[46]

Population growth in the Western world became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation.[47] Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century.[48] The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006.[49] The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million in 2010.[50]

The first half of the 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars, famines and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses (approximately 60 million excess deaths).[51][52] After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's population declined significantly – from 150 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012[53] – but by 2013 this decline appeared to have halted.[54]

Many countries in the developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since the early 20th century, due to economic development and improvements in public health. China's population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953,[55] and now stands at over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent, which was about 125 million in 1750, increased to 389 million in 1941;[56] today, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to about 1.63 billion people.[57] Java, an island in Indonesia, had about 5 million inhabitants in 1815; it had a population of over 139 million in 2020.[58] In just one hundred years, the population of Brazil decupled (x10), from about 17 million in 1900, or about 1% of the world population in that year, to about 176 million in 2000, or almost 3% of the global population in the very early 21st century. Mexico's population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2010.[59][60] Between the 1920s and 2000s, Kenya's population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million.[61]

Milestones by the billions

Main article: World population milestones
World population milestones in billions[62] (Worldometers estimates)
Population 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year 1804 1930 1960 1974 1987 1999 2011 2022 2037 2057
Years elapsed 200,000+ 126 30 14 13 12 12 11 15 20

The UN estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first time in 1804. It was another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it took only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960.[63] Thereafter, it took 14 years for the global population to reach four billion in 1974, 13 years to reach five billion in 1987, 12 years to reach six billion in 1999 and, according to the United States Census Bureau, 13 years to reach seven billion in March 2012.[64] The United Nations, however, estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October 2011.[65][66][67]

According to the UN, the global population reached eight billion in November 2022,[68] but because the growth rate is slowing, it will take another 15 years to reach around 9 billion by 2037 and 20 years to reach 10 billion by 2057.[69] Alternative scenarios for 2050 range from a low of 7.4 billion to a high of more than 10.6 billion.[70] Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility and mortality variables. Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the "low scenario", to "high scenarios" of 24.8 billion.[70] One extreme scenario predicted a massive increase to 256 billion by 2150, assuming the global fertility rate remained at its 1995 level of 3.04 children per woman; however, by 2010 the global fertility rate had declined to 2.52.[71][72]

There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed one or two billion. The points at which it reached three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau placed them in July 1959 and April 1974 respectively. The United Nations did determine, and commemorate, the "Day of 5 Billion" on 11 July 1987, and the "Day of 6 Billion" on 12 October 1999. The Population Division of the United Nations declared the "Day of Seven Billion" to be 31 October 2011.[73] The United Nations marked the birth of the eight billionth person on 15 November 2022.[74][68]

Global demographics

Main article: Demographics of the world
 
  •   >80
  •   77.5–80
  •   75–77.5
  •   72.5–75
  •   70–72.5
  •   67.5–70
  •   65–67.5
  •   60–65
  •   55–60
  •   50–55
2015 map showing average life expectancy by country in years. In 2015, the World Health Organization estimated the average global life expectancy as 71.4 years.[75]

As of 2012, the global sex ratio is approximately 1.01 males to 1 female.[76] Approximately 26.3% of the global population is aged under 15, while 65.9% is aged 15–64 and 7.9% is aged 65 or over.[76] The median age of the world's population is estimated to be 31 years in 2020,[12] and is expected to rise to 37.9 years by 2050.[77]

According to the World Health Organization, the global average life expectancy is 73.3 years as of 2020, with women living an average of 75.9 years and men approximately 70.8 years.[78] In 2010, the global fertility rate was estimated at 2.44 children per woman.[79] In June 2012, British researchers calculated the total weight of Earth's human population as approximately 287 million tonnes (630 billion pounds), with the average person weighing around 62 kilograms (137 lb).[80]

The IMF estimated nominal 2021 gross world product at US$94.94 trillion, giving an annual global per capita figure of around US$12,290.[81] Around 9.3% of the world population live in extreme poverty, subsisting on less than US$1.9 per day;[82] around 8.9% are malnourished.[83] 87% of the world's over-15s are considered literate.[84] As of April 2022, there were about 5 billion global Internet users, constituting 63% of the world population.[85]

The Han Chinese are the world's largest single ethnic group, constituting over 19% of the global population in 2011.[86] The world's most-spoken languages are English (1.132B), Mandarin Chinese (1.117B), Hindi (615M), Spanish (534M) and French (280M). More than three billion people speak an Indo-European language, which is the largest language family by number of speakers. Standard Arabic is a language with no native speakers, but the total number of speakers is estimated at 274 million people.[87]

The largest religious categories in the world as of 2020 are estimated as follows: Christianity (31%), Islam (25%), Unaffiliated (16%) and Hinduism (15%).[88]

Population by region

World population (millions, UN estimates)[89]
# Most populous countries 2000 2015 2030[A]
1   China[B] 1,270 1,376 1,416
2   India 1,053 1,311 1,528
3   United States 283 322 356
4   Indonesia 212 258 295
5   Pakistan 136 208 245
6   Brazil 176 206 228
7   Nigeria 123 182 263
8   Bangladesh 131 161 186
9   Russia 146 146 149
10   Mexico 103 127 148
World total 6,127 7,349 8,501
Notes:
  1. ^ 2030 = Medium variant.
  2. ^ China excludes Hong Kong and Macau.

Six of the Earth's seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale. Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.64 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population. The world's two most populated countries, China and India, together constitute about 36% of the world's population. Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1.34 billion people, or 17% of the world's population. Europe's 747 million people make up 10% of the world's population as of 2020, while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 653 million (8%). Northern America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 368 million (5%), and Oceania, the least populated region, has about 42 million inhabitants (0.5%).[90] Antarctica only has a very small, fluctuating population of about 1200 people based mainly in polar science stations.[91]

Population by region (2020 estimates)
Region Density
(inhabitants/km2) 		Population
(millions) 		Most populous country Most populous city (metropolitan area)
Asia 104.1 4,641 1,411,778,000 –   China[note 1] 13,515,000 –   Tokyo Metropolis
(37,400,000 –   Greater Tokyo Area)
Africa 44.4 1,340 0,211,401,000 –   Nigeria 09,500,000 –   Cairo
(20,076,000 –   Greater Cairo)
Europe 73.4 747 0,146,171,000 –   Russia, approx. 110 million in Europe 13,200,000 –   Moscow
(20,004,000 –   Moscow metropolitan area)
Latin America 24.1 653 0,214,103,000 –   Brazil 12,252,000 –   São Paulo City
(21,650,000 –   São Paulo Metro Area)
Northern America[note 2] 14.9 368 0,332,909,000 –   United States 08,804,000 –   New York City
(23,582,649 –   New York metropolitan area[92])
Oceania 5 42 0,025,917,000 –   Australia 05,367,000 –   Sydney
Antarctica ~0 0.004[91] N/A[note 3] 00,001,258 –   McMurdo Station

Largest populations by country

Further information: List of countries and dependencies by population
 
Cartogram showing the distribution of the world population, each square represents half a million people.
 
A map of world population in 2019
 
1901 to 2021 population graph of the five countries with the highest current populations

10 most populous countries

Rank Country / Dependency Population Percentage
of the world 		Date Source (official or from the United Nations)
1   China 1,412,600,000 17.6% 31 Dec 2021 National annual estimate[93]
2   India 1,373,761,000 17.1% 1 Mar 2022 Annual national estimate[94]
3   United States 333,811,924 4.16% 23 Mar 2023 National population clock[95]
4   Indonesia 275,773,800 3.44% 1 Jul 2022 National annual estimate[96]
5   Pakistan 229,488,994 2.86% 1 Jul 2022 UN projection[97]
6   Nigeria 216,746,934 2.70% 1 Jul 2022 UN projection[97]
7   Brazil 215,925,209 2.69% 23 Mar 2023 National population clock[98]
8   Bangladesh 168,220,000 2.10% 1 Jul 2020 Annual Population Estimate[99]
9   Russia 147,190,000 1.84% 1 Oct 2021 2021 preliminary census results[100]
10   Mexico 128,271,248 1.60% 31 Mar 2022 National quarterly estimate[101]

Approximately 4.5 billion people live in these ten countries, representing around 56% of the world's population as of July 2022.

Most densely populated countries

Further information: List of countries and dependencies by population density

The tables below list the world's most densely populated countries, both in absolute terms and in comparison to their total populations, as of November 2022. All areas and populations are from The World Factbook, unless otherwise noted.

 
Population density (people per km2) map of the world in 2020. Red areas denote regions of highest population density
10 most densely populated countries (with population above 5 million)[102]
Rank Country Population Area
(km2) 		Density
(pop/km2)
1   Singapore 5,921,231 719 8,235
2   Bangladesh 165,650,475 148,460 1,116
3

  Palestine[103]

 5,223,000 6,025 867
4   Taiwan 23,580,712 35,980 655
5   South Korea 51,844,834 99,720 520
6   Lebanon 5,296,814 10,400 509
7   Rwanda 13,173,730 26,338 500
8   Burundi 12,696,478 27,830 456
9   India 1,389,637,446 3,287,263 423
10   Netherlands 17,400,824 41,543 419
Countries ranking highly in both total population (more than 20 million people) and population density (more than 250 people per square kilometer)[102]
Rank Country Population Area
(km2) 		Density
(pop/km2) 		Population
trend[citation needed]
1   India 1,389,637,446 3,287,263 423 Growing
2   Pakistan 242,923,845 796,095 305 Rapidly growing
3   Bangladesh 165,650,475 148,460 1,116 Growing
4   Japan 124,214,766 377,915 329 Declining[104]
5   Philippines 114,597,229 300,000 382 Growing
6   Vietnam 103,808,319 331,210 313 Growing
7   United Kingdom 67,791,400 243,610 278 Growing
8   South Korea 51,844,834 99,720 520 Steady
9   Taiwan 23,580,712 35,980 655 Steady
10   Sri Lanka 23,187,516 65,610 353 Growing

Fluctuation

Main articles: Population growth, Projections of population growth, and Population dynamics
 
Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.

Population size fluctuates at differing rates in differing regions. Nonetheless, population growth has been the long-standing trend on all inhabited continents, as well as in most individual states. During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000[105] as the whole world entered the early phases of what has come to be called the "demographic transition". Some of the key factors contributing to this increase included the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances, and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.[106][107] By 2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700.

However, this rapid growth did not last. During the period 2000–2005, the United Nations estimates that the world's population was growing at an annual rate of 1.3% (equivalent to around 80 million people), down from a peak of 2.1% during the period 1965–1970.[6] Globally, although the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak in 1968,[108] growth still remains high in Sub-Saharan Africa.[109]

 
Map of countries by fertility rate (2020), according to the Population Reference Bureau
 
A world population clock in August 2022 at Eureka! in Halifax, West Yorkshire.

In fact, during the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Europe began to reduce in population, due to sub-replacement fertility rates.[104]

In 2019, the United Nations reported that the rate of population growth continues to decline due to the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2100, concurrent with a world population plateau of 10.9 billion.[6][69] However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN; in 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged between around 8 billion and 10.5 billion.[110] An alternative scenario is given by the statistician Jorgen Randers, who argues that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" reveals a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.[111] Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, states that "there's a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world's agenda, remains a very important issue."[112]

  •  

    Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC–AD 2000

  •  

    Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC–AD 2000 (in log y scale)

  •  

    World population figures, 1950–2017

Annual population growth

Global annual population growth[113]
Year Population Yearly growth Density
(pop/km2) 		Urban population
% Number Number %
1951 2,584,034,261 1.88% 47,603,112 17 775,067,697 30%
1952 2,630,861,562 1.81% 46,827,301 18 799,282,533 30%
1953 2,677,608,960 1.78% 46,747,398 18 824,289,989 31%
1954 2,724,846,741 1.76% 47,237,781 18 850,179,106 31%
1955 2,773,019,936 1.77% 48,173,195 19 877,008,842 32%
1956 2,822,443,282 1.78% 49,423,346 19 904,685,164 32%
1957 2,873,306,090 1.80% 50,862,808 19 933,113,168 32%
1958 2,925,686,705 1.82% 52,380,615 20 962,537,113 33%
1959 2,979,576,185 1.84% 53,889,480 20 992,820,546 33%
1960 3,034,949,748 1.86% 55,373,563 20 1,023,845,517 34%
1961 3,091,843,507 1.87% 56,893,759 21 1,055,435,648 34%
1962 3,150,420,795 1.89% 58,577,288 21 1,088,376,703 35%
1963 3,211,001,009 1.92% 60,580,214 22 1,122,561,940 35%
1964 3,273,978,338 1.96% 62,977,329 22 1,157,813,355 35%
1965 3,339,583,597 2.00% 65,605,259 22 1,188,469,224 36%
1966 3,407,922,630 2.05% 68,339,033 23 1,219,993,032 36%
1967 3,478,769,962 2.08% 70,847,332 23 1,252,566,565 36%
1968 3,551,599,127 2.09% 72,829,165 24 1,285,933,432 36%
1969 3,625,680,627 2.09% 74,081,500 24 1,319,833,474 36%
1970 3,700,437,046 2.06% 74,756,419 25 1,354,215,496 37%
1971 3,775,759,617 2.04% 75,322,571 25 1,388,834,099 37%
1972 3,851,650,245 2.01% 75,890,628 26 1,424,734,781 37%
1973 3,927,780,238 1.98% 76,129,993 26 1,462,178,370 37%
1974 4,003,794,172 1.94% 76,013,934 27 1,501,134,655 37%
1975 4,079,480,606 1.89% 75,686,434 27 1,538,624,994 38%
1976 4,154,666,864 1.84% 75,186,258 28 1,577,376,141 38%
1977 4,229,506,060 1.80% 74,839,196 28 1,616,419,308 38%
1978 4,304,533,501 1.77% 75,027,441 29 1,659,306,117 39%
1979 4,380,506,100 1.76% 75,972,599 29 1,706,021,638 39%
1980 4,458,003,514 1.77% 77,497,414 30 1,754,201,029 39%
1981 4,536,996,762 1.77% 78,993,248 30 1,804,215,203 40%
1982 4,617,386,542 1.77% 80,389,780 31 1,854,134,229 40%
1983 4,699,569,304 1.78% 82,182,762 32 1,903,822,436 41%
1984 4,784,011,621 1.80% 84,442,317 32 1,955,106,433 41%
1985 4,870,921,740 1.82% 86,910,119 33 2,007,939,063 41%
1986 4,960,567,912 1.84% 89,646,172 33 2,062,604,394 42%
1987 5,052,522,147 1.85% 91,954,235 34 2,118,882,551 42%
1988 5,145,426,008 1.84% 92,903,861 35 2,176,126,537 42%
1989 5,237,441,558 1.79% 92,015,550 35 2,233,140,502 43%
1990 5,327,231,061 1.71% 89,789,503 36 2,290,228,096 43%
1991 5,414,289,444 1.63% 87,058,383 36 2,347,462,336 43%
1992 5,498,919,809 1.56% 84,630,365 37 2,404,337,297 44%
1993 5,581,597,546 1.50% 82,677,737 37 2,461,223,528 44%
1994 5,663,150,427 1.46% 81,552,881 38 2,518,254,111 44%
1995 5,744,212,979 1.43% 81,062,552 39 2,575,505,235 45%
1996 5,824,891,951 1.40% 80,678,972 39 2,632,941,583 45%
1997 5,905,045,788 1.38% 80,153,837 40 2,690,813,541 46%
1998 5,984,793,942 1.35% 79,748,154 40 2,749,213,598 46%
1999 6,064,239,055 1.33% 79,445,113 41 2,808,231,655 46%
2000 6,143,494,000 1.31% 79,255,000 41 2,868,308,000 46%
2001 6,222,627,000 1.29% 79,133,000 42 2,933,079,000 47%
2002 6,301,773,000 1.27% 79,147,000 42 3,001,808,000 47%
2003 6,381,185,000 1.26% 79,412,000 43 3,071,744,000 48%
2004 6,461,159,000 1.25% 79,974,000 43 3,143,045,000 48%
2005 6,541,907,000 1.25% 80,748,000 44 3,215,906,000 49%
2006 6,623,518,000 1.25% 81,611,000 44 3,289,446,000 50%
2007 6,705,947,000 1.24% 82,429,000 45 3,363,610,000 50%
2008 6,789,089,000 1.24% 83,142,000 46 3,439,719,000 50%
2009 6,872,767,000 1.23% 83,678,000 47 3,516,830,000 51%
2010 6,956,824,000 1.22% 84,057,000 47 3,594,868,000 51%
2011 7,041,194,000 1.21% 84,371,000 47 3,671,424,000 52%
2012 7,125,828,000 1.20% 84,634,000 48 3,747,843,000 52%
2013 7,210,582,000 1.19% 84,754,000 48 3,824,990,000 53%
2014 7,295,291,000 1.17% 84,709,000 49 3,902,832,000 53%
2015 7,379,797,000 1.16% 84,506,000 50 3,981,498,000 54%
2016 7,464,022,000 1.14% 84,225,000 50 4,060,653,000 54%
2017 7,547,859,000 1.12% 83,837,000 51 4,140,189,000 55%
2018 7,631,091,000 1.10% 83,232,000 51 4,219,817,000 55%
2019 7,713,468,000 1.08% 82,377,000 52 4,299,439,000 56%
2020 7,795,000,000 1.05% 81,331,000 52 4,378,900,000 56%

Population growth by region

Main article: Population growth
Further information: Total fertility rate and Birth rate

The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions.[114][115][116] The availability of historical population figures varies by region.

World historical and predicted populations (in millions)[117][118][119]
Region 1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2010 2012 2050 2150
World 585 660 710 791 978 1,262 1,650 2,521 6,008 6,707 6,896 7,052 9,725 9,746
Africa 86 114 106 106 107 111 133 221 783 973 1,022 1,052 2,478 2,308
Asia 282 350 411 502 635 809 947 1,402 3,700 4,054 4,164 4,250 5,267 5,561
Europe 168 170 178 190 203 276 408 547 675 732 738 740 734 517
Latin America[Note 1] 40 20 10 16 24 38 74 167 508 577 590 603 784 912
Northern America[Note 1] 6 3 2 2 7 26 82 172 312 337 345 351 433 398
Oceania 3 3 3 2 2 2 6 13 30 34 37 38 57 51
World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution[117][118]
Region 1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2010 2012 2050 2150
Africa 14.7 17.3 14.9 13.4 10.9 8.8 8.1 8.8 13.0 14.5 14.8 15.2 25.5 23.7
Asia 48.2 53.0 57.9 63.5 64.9 64.1 57.4 55.6 61.6 60.4 60.4 60.3 54.2 57.1
Europe 28.7 25.8 25.1 20.6 20.8 21.9 24.7 21.7 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.5 7.6 5.3
Latin America[Note 1] 6.8 3.0 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.5 6.6 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.1 9.4
Northern America[Note 1] 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.1 5.0 6.8 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.1
Oceania 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

Past population

Main article: Estimates of historical world population

The following table gives estimates, in millions, of population in the past. The data for 1750 to 1900 are from the UN report "The World at Six Billion"[120] whereas the data from 1950 to 2015 are from a UN data sheet.[89]

Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America
& Carib.[Note 1] 		North America
[Note 1]		 Oceania Notes
70,000 BC < 0.015 0 0 [121]
10,000 BC 4 [122]
8000 BC 5
6500 BC 5
5000 BC 5
4000 BC 7
3000 BC 14
2000 BC 27
1000 BC 50 7 33 9 [citation needed]
500 BC 100 14 66 16
AD 1 200 23 141 28
1000 400 70 269 50 8 1 2
1500 458 86 243 84 39 3 3
1600 580 114 339 111 10 3 3
1700 682 106 436 125 10 2 3
1750 791 106 502 163 16 2 2
1800 1,000 107 656 203 24 7 3
1850 1,262 111 809 276 38 26 2
1900 1,650 133 947 408 74 82 6
1950 2,525 229 1,394 549 169 172 12.7 [123]
1955 2,758 254 1,534 577 193 187 14.2
1960 3,018 285 1,687 606 221 204 15.8
1965 3,322 322 1,875 635 254 219 17.5
1970 3,682 366 2,120 657 288 231 19.7
1975 4,061 416 2,378 677 326 242 21.5
1980 4,440 478 2,626 694 365 254 23.0
1985 4,853 550 2,897 708 406 267 24.9
1990 5,310 632 3,202 721 447 281 27.0
1995 5,735 720 3,475 728 487 296 29.1
2000 6,127 814 3,714 726 527 314 31.1
2005 6,520 920 3,945 729 564 329 33.4
2010 6,930 1,044 4,170 735 600 344 36.4
2015 7,349 1,186 4,393 738 634 358 39.3

Using the above figures, the change in population from 2010 to 2015 was:

  • World: +420 million
  • Africa: +142 million
  • Asia: +223 million
  • Europe: +3 million
  • Latin America and Caribbean: +35 million
  • Northern America: +14 million
  • Oceania: +2.9 million
  1. ^ a b c d e f North America is here defined to include the northernmost countries and territories of North America: Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and Saint Pierre and Miquelon. Latin America & Carib. comprises Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America.

Projections

Main articles: Projections of population growth and Future generations

Long-term global population growth is difficult to predict. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates – according to the UN, the world population reached seven billion in late 2011,[114] while the USCB asserted that this occurred in March 2012.[124] Since 1951 the UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. From 2000 to 2005, the UN consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision, issued on 14 March 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million.[citation needed]

Complicating the UN's and others’ attempts to project future populations is the fact that average global birth rates, as well as mortality rates, are declining rapidly, as the nations of the world progress through the stages of the demographic transition, but both vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates and mortality rates are often low) and developing countries (where birth and mortality rates typically remain high). Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates.[citation needed] Both of these can change rapidly due to disease epidemics, wars and other mass catastrophes, or advances in medicine and public health.

The UN's first report in 1951 showed that during the period 1950–55 the crude birth rate was 36.9/1,000 population and the crude death rate was 19.1/1,000.  By the period 2015–20 both numbers had dropped significantly to 18.5/1,000 for the crude birth rate and 7.5/1,000 for the crude death rate.  UN projections for 2100 show a further decline in the crude birth rate to 11.6/1,000 and an increase in the crude death rate to 11.2/1,000.[125],[126]

The total number of births globally is currently (2015–20) 140 million/year, is projected to peak during the period 2040–45 at 141 million/year and thereafter decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100.[10] The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100.[11]

2012 United Nations projections show a continued increase in population in the near future with a steady decline in population growth rate; the global population is expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050.[127][128] 2003 UN Population Division population projections for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion.[71] One of many independent mathematical models supports the lower estimate,[129] while a 2014 estimate forecasts between 9.3 and 12.6 billion in 2100, and continued growth thereafter.[130][131] The 2019 Revision of the UN estimates gives the "medium variant" population as; nearly 8.6 billion in 2030, about 9.7 billion in 2050 and about 10.9 billion in 2100.[132] In December 2019, the German Foundation for World Population projected that the global population will reach 8 billion by 2023 as it increases by 156 every minute.[133] In a modeled future projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion people and decline to 8.79 billion in 2100.[134] Some analysts have questioned the sustainability of further world population growth, highlighting the growing pressures on the environment,[135][136] global food supplies, and energy resources.[137][138][139]

UN (medium variant – 2019 revision) and US Census Bureau (June 2015) estimates[140][141]
Year UN est.
(millions) 		Difference USCB est.
(millions) 		Difference
2005 6,542 – 6,473 –
2010 6,957 415 6,866 393
2015 7,380 423 7,256 390
2020 7,795 415 7,643 380
2025 8,184 390 8,007 363
2030 8,549 364 8,341 334
2035 8,888 339 8,646 306
2040 9,199 311 8,926 280
2045 9,482 283 9,180 254
2050 9,735 253 9,408 228
UN 2019 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions)[140]
Year World Asia Africa Europe Latin America/Caribbean Northern America Oceania
2000 6,144 3,741 (60.9%) 811 (13.2%) 726 (11.8%) 522 (8.5%) 312 (5.1%) 31 (0.5%)
2005 6,542 3,978 (60.8%) 916 (14.0%) 729 (11.2%) 558 (8.5%) 327 (5.0%) 34 (0.5%)
2010 6,957 4,210 (60.5%) 1,039 (14.9%) 736 (10.6%) 591 (8.5%) 343 (4.9%) 37 (0.5%)
2015 7,380 4,434 (60.1%) 1,182 (16.0%) 743 (10.1%) 624 (8.5%) 357 (4.8%) 40 (0.5%)
2020 7,795 4,641 (59.5%) 1,341 (17.2%) 748 (9.6%) 654 (8.4%) 369 (4.7%) 43 (0.6%)
2025 8,184 4,823 (58.9%) 1,509 (18.4%) 746 (9.1%) 682 (8.3%) 380 (4.6%) 45 (0.6%)
2030 8,549 4,974 (58.2%) 1,688 (19.8%) 741 (8.7%) 706 (8.3%) 391 (4.6%) 48 (0.6%)
2035 8,888 5,096 (57.3%) 1,878 (21.1%) 735 (8.3%) 726 (8.2%) 401 (4.5%) 50 (0.6%)
2040 9,199 5,189 (56.4%) 2,077 (22.6%) 728 (7.9%) 742 (8.1%) 410 (4.5%) 53 (0.6%)
2045 9,482 5,253 (55.4%) 2,282 (24.1%) 720 (7.6%) 754 (8.0%) 418 (4.4%) 55 (0.6%)
2050 9,735 5,290 (54.3%) 2,489 (25.6%) 711 (7.3%) 762 (7.8%) 425 (4.4%) 57 (0.6%)
2055 9,958 5,302 (53.2%) 2,698 (27.1%) 700 (7.0%) 767 (7.7%) 432 (4.3%) 60 (0.6%)
2060 10,152 5,289 (52.1%) 2,905 (28.6%) 689 (6.8%) 768 (7.6%) 439 (4.3%) 62 (0.6%)
2065 10,318 5,256 (51.0%) 3,109 (30.1%) 677 (6.6%) 765 (7.4%) 447 (4.3%) 64 (0.6%)
2070 10,459 5,207 (49.8%) 3,308 (31.6%) 667 (6.4%) 759 (7.3%) 454 (4.3%) 66 (0.6%)
2075 10,577 5,143 (48.6%) 3,499 (33.1%) 657 (6.2%) 750 (7.1%) 461 (4.4%) 67 (0.6%)
2080 10,674 5,068 (47.5%) 3,681 (34.5%) 650 (6.1%) 739 (6.9%) 468 (4.4%) 69 (0.7%)
2085 10,750 4,987 (46.4%) 3,851 (35.8%) 643 (6.0%) 726 (6.8%) 474 (4.4%) 71 (0.7%)
2090 10,810 4,901 (45.3%) 4,008 (37.1%) 638 (5.9%) 711 (6.6%) 479 (4.4%) 72 (0.7%)
2095 10,852 4,812 (44.3%) 4,152 (38.3%) 634 (5.8%) 696 (6.4%) 485 (4.5%) 74 (0.7%)
2100 10,875 4,719 (43.4%) 4,280 (39.4%) 630 (5.8%) 680 (6.3%) 491 (4.5%) 75 (0.7%)

Mathematical approximations

In 1975, Sebastian von Hoerner proposed a formula for population growth which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025.[142] The hyperbolic growth of the world population observed until the 1970s was later correlated to a non-linear second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This feedback can be described as follows: technological advance → increase in the carrying capacity of land for people → demographic growth → more people → more potential inventors → acceleration of technological advance → accelerating growth of the carrying capacity → faster population growth → accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors → faster technological advance → hence, the faster growth of the Earth's carrying capacity for people, and so on.[143] The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.

According to the Russian demographer Sergey Kapitsa,[144] the world population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965 according to the following formula:

 

where

N is current population,
T is the current year,
C = (1.86 ± 0.01)·1011,
T0 = 2007 ± 1,
  = 42 ± 1.

Years for world population to double

According to linear interpolation and extrapolation of UNDESA population estimates, the world population has doubled, or will double, in the years listed in the tables below (with two different starting points). During the 2nd millennium, each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, after 2024, it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century.[145]

 
Historic chart showing the periods of time the world population has taken to double, from 1700 to 2000
Starting at 500 million
Population
(in billions) 		0.5 1 2 4 8 16
Year 1500 1804 1927 1974 2022 n/a
Years elapsed — 304 123 47 48 —
Starting at 375 million
Population
(in billions) 		0.375 0.75 1.5 3 6 12
Year 1171 1715 1881 1960 1999 c. 2100[146]
Years elapsed — 544 166 79 39 c. 100+

Number of humans who have ever lived

Further information: Prehistoric demography

The total number of humans who have ever lived is estimated to be approximately 100 billion. Such estimates can only be rough approximations, as even modern population estimates are subject to uncertainty of around 3% to 5%.[16] Kapitsa (1996) cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion.[147] The PRB puts the figure at 117 billion as of 2020, estimating that the current world population is 6.7% of all the humans who have ever lived.[148] Haub (1995) prepared another figure, updated in 2002 and 2011; the 2011 figure was approximately 107 billion.[149][150][151] Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period".[150]

Robust population data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service.[152] Thus, there is a significant margin of error when estimating ancient global populations.

Pre-modern infant mortality rates are another critical factor for such an estimate; these rates are very difficult to estimate for ancient times due to a lack of accurate records. Haub (1995) estimates that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday. Haub also stated that "life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history",[150] which is not to be mistaken for the life expectancy after reaching adulthood. The latter equally depended on period, location and social standing, but calculations identify averages from roughly 30 years upward.

See also

Lists:

Historical:

Explanatory notes

  1. ^ Excluding its Special Administrative Regions (SARs) of Hong Kong and Macau.
  2. ^ Excludes Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, which are included here under Latin America.
  3. ^ The Antarctic Treaty System limits the nature of national claims in Antarctica. Of the territorial claims in Antarctica, the Ross Dependency has the largest population.

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Sources

  •   This article incorporates public domain material from World Factbook. CIA.

Further reading

External links

 
Wikimedia Commons has media related to World population statistics.

Organizations

  • The Day of 6 Billion and – Official homepages maintained by UNFPA
  • Population Reference Bureau – News and issues related to population
  • Berlin Institute for Population and Development

Statistics and maps

  • HiveGroup.com – World population statistics presented in a treemap interface
  • Win.tue.nl – World countries mapped by population size

Population clocks

  • U.S. and World Population Clock (US Census Bureau)
  • World Population Clock – Worldometer

March 25, 2023
world, population, demographics, world, population, total, number, humans, currently, living, estimated, united, nations, have, exceeded, eight, billion, november, 2022, took, over, years, human, prehistory, history, human, population, reach, billion, only, ye. In demographics the world population is the total number of humans currently living It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid November 2022 It took over 200 000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 219 years more to reach 8 billion 3 World population growth from 10 000 BCE to 2021 1 High medium and low projections of the future human world population 2 The human population experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315 1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350 when it was nearly 370 000 000 4 The highest global population growth rates with increases of over 1 8 per year occurred between 1955 and 1975 peaking at 2 1 between 1965 and 1970 5 The growth rate declined to 1 1 between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century 6 7 The global population is still increasing but there is significant uncertainty about its long term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates 8 The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs projects between 9 and 10 billion people by 2050 and gives an 80 confidence interval of 10 12 billion by the end of the 21st century 2 with a growth rate by then of zero 7 Other demographers predict that the human population will begin to decline in the second half of the 21st century 9 The total number of births globally is currently 2015 2020 140 million year which is projected to peak during the period 2040 2045 at 141 million year and then decline slowly to 126 million year by 2100 10 The total number of deaths is currently 57 million year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million year by 2100 11 The median age of human beings as of 2020 update is 31 years 12 Contents 1 History 1 1 Ancient and post classical history 1 2 Modern history 1 3 Milestones by the billions 2 Global demographics 3 Population by region 4 Largest populations by country 4 1 10 most populous countries 4 2 Most densely populated countries 5 Fluctuation 5 1 Annual population growth 5 2 Population growth by region 5 3 Past population 5 4 Projections 6 Mathematical approximations 6 1 Years for world population to double 7 Number of humans who have ever lived 8 See also 9 Explanatory notes 10 References 10 1 Sources 11 Further reading 12 External linksHistory Visual comparison of the world population in past and present Further information Estimates of historical world population and Human history Estimates of world population by their nature are an aspect of modernity possible only since the Age of Discovery Early estimates for the population of the world 13 date to the 17th century William Petty in 1682 estimated the world population at 320 million current estimates ranging close to twice this number by the late 18th century estimates ranged close to one billion consistent with current estimates 14 More refined estimates broken down by continents were published in the first half of the 19th century at 600 million to 1 billion in the early 1800s and 800 million to 1 billion in the 1840s 15 It is difficult for estimates to be better than rough approximations as even current population estimates are fraught with uncertainties from 3 to 5 16 Ancient and post classical history Main articles Classical demography and Medieval demography Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10 000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million 17 18 Even earlier genetic evidence suggests humans may have gone through a population bottleneck of between 1 000 and 10 000 people about 70 000 BC according to the now largely discredited Toba catastrophe theory By contrast it is estimated that around 50 60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD 19 The Plague of Justinian caused Europe s population to drop by around 50 between the 6th and 8th centuries AD 20 The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340 21 From 1340 to 1400 the world s population fell from an estimated 443 million to 350 375 million 22 with the Indian subcontinent suffering the most tremendous loss and Europe suffering the Black Death pandemic 23 it took 200 years for European population figures to recover 24 The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in 1393 25 presumably from a combination of Mongol invasions famine and plague 26 Starting in AD 2 the Han dynasty of ancient China kept consistent family registers to properly assess the poll taxes and labor service duties of each household 27 In that year the population of Western Han was recorded as 57 671 400 individuals in 12 366 470 households decreasing to 47 566 772 individuals in 9 348 227 households by AD 146 towards the end of the Han dynasty 27 From 200 to 400 the world population fell from an estimated 257 million to 206 million with China suffering the greatest loss 23 At the founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368 China s population was reported to be close to 60 million toward the end of the dynasty in 1644 it may have approached 150 million 28 England s population reached an estimated 5 6 million in 1650 up from an estimated 2 6 million in 1500 29 New crops that were brought to Asia and Europe from the Americas by Portuguese and Spanish colonists in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth 30 31 32 Since their introduction to Africa by Portuguese traders in the 16th century 33 maize and cassava have similarly replaced traditional African crops as the most important staple food crops grown on the continent 34 The pre Columbian population of the Americas is uncertain historian David Henige called it the most unanswerable question in the world 35 By the end of the 20th century scholarly consensus favored an estimate of roughly 55 million people but numbers from various sources have ranged from 10 million to 100 million 36 Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence 37 According to the most extreme scholarly claims as many as 90 of the Native American population of the New World died of Old World diseases such as smallpox measles and influenza 38 Over the centuries the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity 39 Modern history Map showing urban areas with at least one million inhabitants in 2006 Only 3 of the world s population lived in urban areas in 1800 this proportion had risen to 47 by 2000 and reached 50 5 by 2010 40 By 2050 the proportion may reach 70 41 During the European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions the life expectancy of children increased dramatically 42 The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74 5 in 1730 1749 to 31 8 in 1810 1829 43 44 Between 1700 and 1900 Europe s population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million 45 Altogether the areas populated by people of European descent comprised 36 of the world s population in 1900 46 Population growth in the Western world became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation 47 Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century 48 The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006 49 The United States saw its population grow from around 5 3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920 exceeding 307 million in 2010 50 The first half of the 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars famines and other disasters which caused large scale population losses approximately 60 million excess deaths 51 52 After the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia s population declined significantly from 150 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012 53 but by 2013 this decline appeared to have halted 54 Many countries in the developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since the early 20th century due to economic development and improvements in public health China s population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953 55 and now stands at over 1 3 billion The population of the Indian subcontinent which was about 125 million in 1750 increased to 389 million in 1941 56 today India Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to about 1 63 billion people 57 Java an island in Indonesia had about 5 million inhabitants in 1815 it had a population of over 139 million in 2020 58 In just one hundred years the population of Brazil decupled x10 from about 17 million in 1900 or about 1 of the world population in that year to about 176 million in 2000 or almost 3 of the global population in the very early 21st century Mexico s population grew from 13 6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2010 59 60 Between the 1920s and 2000s Kenya s population grew from 2 9 million to 37 million 61 Milestones by the billions Main article World population milestones World population milestones in billions 62 Worldometers estimates Population 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year 1804 1930 1960 1974 1987 1999 2011 2022 2037 2057Years elapsed 200 000 126 30 14 13 12 12 11 15 20The UN estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first time in 1804 It was another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927 but it took only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960 63 Thereafter it took 14 years for the global population to reach four billion in 1974 13 years to reach five billion in 1987 12 years to reach six billion in 1999 and according to the United States Census Bureau 13 years to reach seven billion in March 2012 64 The United Nations however estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October 2011 65 66 67 According to the UN the global population reached eight billion in November 2022 68 but because the growth rate is slowing it will take another 15 years to reach around 9 billion by 2037 and 20 years to reach 10 billion by 2057 69 Alternative scenarios for 2050 range from a low of 7 4 billion to a high of more than 10 6 billion 70 Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations especially the fertility and mortality variables Long range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3 2 billion in the low scenario to high scenarios of 24 8 billion 70 One extreme scenario predicted a massive increase to 256 billion by 2150 assuming the global fertility rate remained at its 1995 level of 3 04 children per woman however by 2010 the global fertility rate had declined to 2 52 71 72 There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world s population surpassed one or two billion The points at which it reached three and four billion were not officially noted but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau placed them in July 1959 and April 1974 respectively The United Nations did determine and commemorate the Day of 5 Billion on 11 July 1987 and the Day of 6 Billion on 12 October 1999 The Population Division of the United Nations declared the Day of Seven Billion to be 31 October 2011 73 The United Nations marked the birth of the eight billionth person on 15 November 2022 74 68 Global demographicsMain article Demographics of the world gt 80 77 5 80 75 77 5 72 5 75 70 72 5 67 5 70 65 67 5 60 65 55 60 50 55 2015 map showing average life expectancy by country in years In 2015 the World Health Organization estimated the average global life expectancy as 71 4 years 75 As of 2012 the global sex ratio is approximately 1 01 males to 1 female 76 Approximately 26 3 of the global population is aged under 15 while 65 9 is aged 15 64 and 7 9 is aged 65 or over 76 The median age of the world s population is estimated to be 31 years in 2020 12 and is expected to rise to 37 9 years by 2050 77 According to the World Health Organization the global average life expectancy is 73 3 years as of 2020 with women living an average of 75 9 years and men approximately 70 8 years 78 In 2010 the global fertility rate was estimated at 2 44 children per woman 79 In June 2012 British researchers calculated the total weight of Earth s human population as approximately 287 million tonnes 630 billion pounds with the average person weighing around 62 kilograms 137 lb 80 The IMF estimated nominal 2021 gross world product at US 94 94 trillion giving an annual global per capita figure of around US 12 290 81 Around 9 3 of the world population live in extreme poverty subsisting on less than US 1 9 per day 82 around 8 9 are malnourished 83 87 of the world s over 15s are considered literate 84 As of April 2022 there were about 5 billion global Internet users constituting 63 of the world population 85 The Han Chinese are the world s largest single ethnic group constituting over 19 of the global population in 2011 86 The world s most spoken languages are English 1 132B Mandarin Chinese 1 117B Hindi 615M Spanish 534M and French 280M More than three billion people speak an Indo European language which is the largest language family by number of speakers Standard Arabic is a language with no native speakers but the total number of speakers is estimated at 274 million people 87 The largest religious categories in the world as of 2020 are estimated as follows Christianity 31 Islam 25 Unaffiliated 16 and Hinduism 15 88 Population by regionWorld population millions UN estimates 89 Most populous countries 2000 2015 2030 A 1 China B 1 270 1 376 1 4162 India 1 053 1 311 1 5283 United States 283 322 3564 Indonesia 212 258 2955 Pakistan 136 208 2456 Brazil 176 206 2287 Nigeria 123 182 2638 Bangladesh 131 161 1869 Russia 146 146 14910 Mexico 103 127 148World total 6 127 7 349 8 501Notes 2030 Medium variant China excludes Hong Kong and Macau Six of the Earth s seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale Asia is the most populous continent with its 4 64 billion inhabitants accounting for 60 of the world population The world s two most populated countries China and India together constitute about 36 of the world s population Africa is the second most populated continent with around 1 34 billion people or 17 of the world s population Europe s 747 million people make up 10 of the world s population as of 2020 while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 653 million 8 Northern America primarily consisting of the United States and Canada has a population of around 368 million 5 and Oceania the least populated region has about 42 million inhabitants 0 5 90 Antarctica only has a very small fluctuating population of about 1200 people based mainly in polar science stations 91 Population by region 2020 estimates Region Density inhabitants km2 Population millions Most populous country Most populous city metropolitan area Asia 104 1 4 641 1 411 778 000 China note 1 13 515 000 Tokyo Metropolis 37 400 000 Greater Tokyo Area Africa 44 4 1 340 0 211 401 000 Nigeria 0 9 500 000 Cairo 20 076 000 Greater Cairo Europe 73 4 747 0 146 171 000 Russia approx 110 million in Europe 13 200 000 Moscow 20 004 000 Moscow metropolitan area Latin America 24 1 653 0 214 103 000 Brazil 12 252 000 Sao Paulo City 21 650 000 Sao Paulo Metro Area Northern America note 2 14 9 368 0 332 909 000 United States 0 8 804 000 New York City 23 582 649 New York metropolitan area 92 Oceania 5 42 0 0 25 917 000 Australia 0 5 367 000 SydneyAntarctica 0 0 004 91 N A note 3 00 00 1 258 McMurdo StationLargest populations by countryFurther information List of countries and dependencies by population Cartogram showing the distribution of the world population each square represents half a million people A map of world population in 2019 1901 to 2021 population graph of the five countries with the highest current populations 10 most populous countries Rank Country Dependency Population Percentage of the world Date Source official or from the United Nations 1 China 1 412 600 000 17 6 31 Dec 2021 National annual estimate 93 2 India 1 373 761 000 17 1 1 Mar 2022 Annual national estimate 94 3 United States 333 811 924 4 16 23 Mar 2023 National population clock 95 4 Indonesia 275 773 800 3 44 1 Jul 2022 National annual estimate 96 5 Pakistan 229 488 994 2 86 1 Jul 2022 UN projection 97 6 Nigeria 216 746 934 2 70 1 Jul 2022 UN projection 97 7 Brazil 215 925 209 2 69 23 Mar 2023 National population clock 98 8 Bangladesh 168 220 000 2 10 1 Jul 2020 Annual Population Estimate 99 9 Russia 147 190 000 1 84 1 Oct 2021 2021 preliminary census results 100 10 Mexico 128 271 248 1 60 31 Mar 2022 National quarterly estimate 101 Approximately 4 5 billion people live in these ten countries representing around 56 of the world s population as of July 2022 Most densely populated countries Further information List of countries and dependencies by population density The tables below list the world s most densely populated countries both in absolute terms and in comparison to their total populations as of November 2022 All areas and populations are from The World Factbook unless otherwise noted Population density people per km2 map of the world in 2020 Red areas denote regions of highest population density 10 most densely populated countries with population above 5 million 102 Rank Country Population Area km2 Density pop km2 1 Singapore 5 921 231 719 8 2352 Bangladesh 165 650 475 148 460 1 1163 Palestine 103 5 223 000 6 025 8674 Taiwan 23 580 712 35 980 6555 South Korea 51 844 834 99 720 5206 Lebanon 5 296 814 10 400 5097 Rwanda 13 173 730 26 338 5008 Burundi 12 696 478 27 830 4569 India 1 389 637 446 3 287 263 42310 Netherlands 17 400 824 41 543 419Countries ranking highly in both total population more than 20 million people and population density more than 250 people per square kilometer 102 Rank Country Population Area km2 Density pop km2 Population trend citation needed 1 India 1 389 637 446 3 287 263 423 Growing2 Pakistan 242 923 845 796 095 305 Rapidly growing3 Bangladesh 165 650 475 148 460 1 116 Growing4 Japan 124 214 766 377 915 329 Declining 104 5 Philippines 114 597 229 300 000 382 Growing6 Vietnam 103 808 319 331 210 313 Growing7 United Kingdom 67 791 400 243 610 278 Growing8 South Korea 51 844 834 99 720 520 Steady9 Taiwan 23 580 712 35 980 655 Steady10 Sri Lanka 23 187 516 65 610 353 GrowingFluctuationMain articles Population growth Projections of population growth and Population dynamics Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people Population size fluctuates at differing rates in differing regions Nonetheless population growth has been the long standing trend on all inhabited continents as well as in most individual states During the 20th century the global population saw its greatest increase in known history rising from about 1 6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000 105 as the whole world entered the early phases of what has come to be called the demographic transition Some of the key factors contributing to this increase included the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution 106 107 By 2000 there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700 However this rapid growth did not last During the period 2000 2005 the United Nations estimates that the world s population was growing at an annual rate of 1 3 equivalent to around 80 million people down from a peak of 2 1 during the period 1965 1970 6 Globally although the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak in 1968 108 growth still remains high in Sub Saharan Africa 109 Map of countries by fertility rate 2020 according to the Population Reference Bureau A world population clock in August 2022 at Eureka in Halifax West Yorkshire In fact during the 2010s Japan and some countries in Europe began to reduce in population due to sub replacement fertility rates 104 In 2019 the United Nations reported that the rate of population growth continues to decline due to the ongoing global demographic transition If this trend continues the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2100 concurrent with a world population plateau of 10 9 billion 6 69 However this is only one of many estimates published by the UN in 2009 UN population projections for 2050 ranged between around 8 billion and 10 5 billion 110 An alternative scenario is given by the statistician Jorgen Randers who argues that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility Randers most likely scenario reveals a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8 1 billion people followed by decline 111 Adrian Raftery a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology states that there s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century Population which had sort of fallen off the world s agenda remains a very important issue 112 Estimated world population figures 10 000 BC AD 2000 Estimated world population figures 10 000 BC AD 2000 in log y scale World population figures 1950 2017Annual population growth Global annual population growth 113 Year Population Yearly growth Density pop km2 Urban population Number Number 1951 2 584 034 261 1 88 47 603 112 17 775 067 697 30 1952 2 630 861 562 1 81 46 827 301 18 799 282 533 30 1953 2 677 608 960 1 78 46 747 398 18 824 289 989 31 1954 2 724 846 741 1 76 47 237 781 18 850 179 106 31 1955 2 773 019 936 1 77 48 173 195 19 877 008 842 32 1956 2 822 443 282 1 78 49 423 346 19 904 685 164 32 1957 2 873 306 090 1 80 50 862 808 19 933 113 168 32 1958 2 925 686 705 1 82 52 380 615 20 962 537 113 33 1959 2 979 576 185 1 84 53 889 480 20 992 820 546 33 1960 3 034 949 748 1 86 55 373 563 20 1 023 845 517 34 1961 3 091 843 507 1 87 56 893 759 21 1 055 435 648 34 1962 3 150 420 795 1 89 58 577 288 21 1 088 376 703 35 1963 3 211 001 009 1 92 60 580 214 22 1 122 561 940 35 1964 3 273 978 338 1 96 62 977 329 22 1 157 813 355 35 1965 3 339 583 597 2 00 65 605 259 22 1 188 469 224 36 1966 3 407 922 630 2 05 68 339 033 23 1 219 993 032 36 1967 3 478 769 962 2 08 70 847 332 23 1 252 566 565 36 1968 3 551 599 127 2 09 72 829 165 24 1 285 933 432 36 1969 3 625 680 627 2 09 74 081 500 24 1 319 833 474 36 1970 3 700 437 046 2 06 74 756 419 25 1 354 215 496 37 1971 3 775 759 617 2 04 75 322 571 25 1 388 834 099 37 1972 3 851 650 245 2 01 75 890 628 26 1 424 734 781 37 1973 3 927 780 238 1 98 76 129 993 26 1 462 178 370 37 1974 4 003 794 172 1 94 76 013 934 27 1 501 134 655 37 1975 4 079 480 606 1 89 75 686 434 27 1 538 624 994 38 1976 4 154 666 864 1 84 75 186 258 28 1 577 376 141 38 1977 4 229 506 060 1 80 74 839 196 28 1 616 419 308 38 1978 4 304 533 501 1 77 75 027 441 29 1 659 306 117 39 1979 4 380 506 100 1 76 75 972 599 29 1 706 021 638 39 1980 4 458 003 514 1 77 77 497 414 30 1 754 201 029 39 1981 4 536 996 762 1 77 78 993 248 30 1 804 215 203 40 1982 4 617 386 542 1 77 80 389 780 31 1 854 134 229 40 1983 4 699 569 304 1 78 82 182 762 32 1 903 822 436 41 1984 4 784 011 621 1 80 84 442 317 32 1 955 106 433 41 1985 4 870 921 740 1 82 86 910 119 33 2 007 939 063 41 1986 4 960 567 912 1 84 89 646 172 33 2 062 604 394 42 1987 5 052 522 147 1 85 91 954 235 34 2 118 882 551 42 1988 5 145 426 008 1 84 92 903 861 35 2 176 126 537 42 1989 5 237 441 558 1 79 92 015 550 35 2 233 140 502 43 1990 5 327 231 061 1 71 89 789 503 36 2 290 228 096 43 1991 5 414 289 444 1 63 87 058 383 36 2 347 462 336 43 1992 5 498 919 809 1 56 84 630 365 37 2 404 337 297 44 1993 5 581 597 546 1 50 82 677 737 37 2 461 223 528 44 1994 5 663 150 427 1 46 81 552 881 38 2 518 254 111 44 1995 5 744 212 979 1 43 81 062 552 39 2 575 505 235 45 1996 5 824 891 951 1 40 80 678 972 39 2 632 941 583 45 1997 5 905 045 788 1 38 80 153 837 40 2 690 813 541 46 1998 5 984 793 942 1 35 79 748 154 40 2 749 213 598 46 1999 6 064 239 055 1 33 79 445 113 41 2 808 231 655 46 2000 6 143 494 000 1 31 79 255 000 41 2 868 308 000 46 2001 6 222 627 000 1 29 79 133 000 42 2 933 079 000 47 2002 6 301 773 000 1 27 79 147 000 42 3 001 808 000 47 2003 6 381 185 000 1 26 79 412 000 43 3 071 744 000 48 2004 6 461 159 000 1 25 79 974 000 43 3 143 045 000 48 2005 6 541 907 000 1 25 80 748 000 44 3 215 906 000 49 2006 6 623 518 000 1 25 81 611 000 44 3 289 446 000 50 2007 6 705 947 000 1 24 82 429 000 45 3 363 610 000 50 2008 6 789 089 000 1 24 83 142 000 46 3 439 719 000 50 2009 6 872 767 000 1 23 83 678 000 47 3 516 830 000 51 2010 6 956 824 000 1 22 84 057 000 47 3 594 868 000 51 2011 7 041 194 000 1 21 84 371 000 47 3 671 424 000 52 2012 7 125 828 000 1 20 84 634 000 48 3 747 843 000 52 2013 7 210 582 000 1 19 84 754 000 48 3 824 990 000 53 2014 7 295 291 000 1 17 84 709 000 49 3 902 832 000 53 2015 7 379 797 000 1 16 84 506 000 50 3 981 498 000 54 2016 7 464 022 000 1 14 84 225 000 50 4 060 653 000 54 2017 7 547 859 000 1 12 83 837 000 51 4 140 189 000 55 2018 7 631 091 000 1 10 83 232 000 51 4 219 817 000 55 2019 7 713 468 000 1 08 82 377 000 52 4 299 439 000 56 2020 7 795 000 000 1 05 81 331 000 52 4 378 900 000 56 Population growth by region Main article Population growth Further information Total fertility rate and Birth rate The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions 114 115 116 The availability of historical population figures varies by region World historical and predicted populations in millions 117 118 119 Region 1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2010 2012 2050 2150World 585 660 710 791 978 1 262 1 650 2 521 6 008 6 707 6 896 7 052 9 725 9 746Africa 86 114 106 106 107 111 133 221 783 973 1 022 1 052 2 478 2 308Asia 282 350 411 502 635 809 947 1 402 3 700 4 054 4 164 4 250 5 267 5 561Europe 168 170 178 190 203 276 408 547 675 732 738 740 734 517Latin America Note 1 40 20 10 16 24 38 74 167 508 577 590 603 784 912Northern America Note 1 6 3 2 2 7 26 82 172 312 337 345 351 433 398Oceania 3 3 3 2 2 2 6 13 30 34 37 38 57 51World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution 117 118 Region 1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2010 2012 2050 2150Africa 14 7 17 3 14 9 13 4 10 9 8 8 8 1 8 8 13 0 14 5 14 8 15 2 25 5 23 7Asia 48 2 53 0 57 9 63 5 64 9 64 1 57 4 55 6 61 6 60 4 60 4 60 3 54 2 57 1Europe 28 7 25 8 25 1 20 6 20 8 21 9 24 7 21 7 11 2 10 9 10 7 10 5 7 6 5 3Latin America Note 1 6 8 3 0 1 4 2 0 2 5 3 0 4 5 6 6 8 5 8 6 8 6 8 6 8 1 9 4Northern America Note 1 1 0 0 5 0 3 0 3 0 7 2 1 5 0 6 8 5 2 5 0 5 0 5 0 4 5 4 1Oceania 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 6 0 5Past population Main article Estimates of historical world population The following table gives estimates in millions of population in the past The data for 1750 to 1900 are from the UN report The World at Six Billion 120 whereas the data from 1950 to 2015 are from a UN data sheet 89 Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America amp Carib Note 1 North America Note 1 Oceania Notes70 000 BC lt 0 015 0 0 121 10 000 BC 4 122 8000 BC 56500 BC 55000 BC 54000 BC 73000 BC 142000 BC 271000 BC 50 7 33 9 citation needed 500 BC 100 14 66 16AD 1 200 23 141 281000 400 70 269 50 8 1 21500 458 86 243 84 39 3 31600 580 114 339 111 10 3 31700 682 106 436 125 10 2 31750 791 106 502 163 16 2 21800 1 000 107 656 203 24 7 31850 1 262 111 809 276 38 26 21900 1 650 133 947 408 74 82 61950 2 525 229 1 394 549 169 172 12 7 123 1955 2 758 254 1 534 577 193 187 14 21960 3 018 285 1 687 606 221 204 15 81965 3 322 322 1 875 635 254 219 17 51970 3 682 366 2 120 657 288 231 19 71975 4 061 416 2 378 677 326 242 21 51980 4 440 478 2 626 694 365 254 23 01985 4 853 550 2 897 708 406 267 24 91990 5 310 632 3 202 721 447 281 27 01995 5 735 720 3 475 728 487 296 29 12000 6 127 814 3 714 726 527 314 31 12005 6 520 920 3 945 729 564 329 33 42010 6 930 1 044 4 170 735 600 344 36 42015 7 349 1 186 4 393 738 634 358 39 3Using the above figures the change in population from 2010 to 2015 was World 420 million Africa 142 million Asia 223 million Europe 3 million Latin America and Caribbean 35 million Northern America 14 million Oceania 2 9 million a b c d e f North America is here defined to include the northernmost countries and territories of North America Canada the United States Greenland Bermuda and Saint Pierre and Miquelon Latin America amp Carib comprises Mexico Central America the Caribbean and South America Projections Main articles Projections of population growth and Future generations This section needs additional citations for verification Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources Unsourced material may be challenged and removed April 2020 Learn how and when to remove this template message Long term global population growth is difficult to predict The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates according to the UN the world population reached seven billion in late 2011 114 while the USCB asserted that this occurred in March 2012 124 Since 1951 the UN has issued multiple projections of future world population based on different assumptions From 2000 to 2005 the UN consistently revised these projections downward until the 2006 revision issued on 14 March 2007 revised the 2050 mid range estimate upwards by 273 million citation needed Complicating the UN s and others attempts to project future populations is the fact that average global birth rates as well as mortality rates are declining rapidly as the nations of the world progress through the stages of the demographic transition but both vary greatly between developed countries where birth rates and mortality rates are often low and developing countries where birth and mortality rates typically remain high Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates citation needed Both of these can change rapidly due to disease epidemics wars and other mass catastrophes or advances in medicine and public health The UN s first report in 1951 showed that during the period 1950 55 the crude birth rate was 36 9 1 000 population and the crude death rate was 19 1 1 000 By the period 2015 20 both numbers had dropped significantly to 18 5 1 000 for the crude birth rate and 7 5 1 000 for the crude death rate UN projections for 2100 show a further decline in the crude birth rate to 11 6 1 000 and an increase in the crude death rate to 11 2 1 000 125 126 The total number of births globally is currently 2015 20 140 million year is projected to peak during the period 2040 45 at 141 million year and thereafter decline slowly to 126 million year by 2100 10 The total number of deaths is currently 57 million year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million year by 2100 11 2012 United Nations projections show a continued increase in population in the near future with a steady decline in population growth rate the global population is expected to reach between 8 3 and 10 9 billion by 2050 127 128 2003 UN Population Division population projections for the year 2150 range between 3 2 and 24 8 billion 71 One of many independent mathematical models supports the lower estimate 129 while a 2014 estimate forecasts between 9 3 and 12 6 billion in 2100 and continued growth thereafter 130 131 The 2019 Revision of the UN estimates gives the medium variant population as nearly 8 6 billion in 2030 about 9 7 billion in 2050 and about 10 9 billion in 2100 132 In December 2019 the German Foundation for World Population projected that the global population will reach 8 billion by 2023 as it increases by 156 every minute 133 In a modeled future projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9 73 billion people and decline to 8 79 billion in 2100 134 Some analysts have questioned the sustainability of further world population growth highlighting the growing pressures on the environment 135 136 global food supplies and energy resources 137 138 139 UN medium variant 2019 revision and US Census Bureau June 2015 estimates 140 141 Year UN est millions Difference USCB est millions Difference2005 6 542 6 473 2010 6 957 415 6 866 3932015 7 380 423 7 256 3902020 7 795 415 7 643 3802025 8 184 390 8 007 3632030 8 549 364 8 341 3342035 8 888 339 8 646 3062040 9 199 311 8 926 2802045 9 482 283 9 180 2542050 9 735 253 9 408 228UN 2019 estimates and medium variant projections in millions 140 Year World Asia Africa Europe Latin America Caribbean Northern America Oceania2000 6 144 3 741 60 9 811 13 2 726 11 8 522 8 5 312 5 1 31 0 5 2005 6 542 3 978 60 8 916 14 0 729 11 2 558 8 5 327 5 0 34 0 5 2010 6 957 4 210 60 5 1 039 14 9 736 10 6 591 8 5 343 4 9 37 0 5 2015 7 380 4 434 60 1 1 182 16 0 743 10 1 624 8 5 357 4 8 40 0 5 2020 7 795 4 641 59 5 1 341 17 2 748 9 6 654 8 4 369 4 7 43 0 6 2025 8 184 4 823 58 9 1 509 18 4 746 9 1 682 8 3 380 4 6 45 0 6 2030 8 549 4 974 58 2 1 688 19 8 741 8 7 706 8 3 391 4 6 48 0 6 2035 8 888 5 096 57 3 1 878 21 1 735 8 3 726 8 2 401 4 5 50 0 6 2040 9 199 5 189 56 4 2 077 22 6 728 7 9 742 8 1 410 4 5 53 0 6 2045 9 482 5 253 55 4 2 282 24 1 720 7 6 754 8 0 418 4 4 55 0 6 2050 9 735 5 290 54 3 2 489 25 6 711 7 3 762 7 8 425 4 4 57 0 6 2055 9 958 5 302 53 2 2 698 27 1 700 7 0 767 7 7 432 4 3 60 0 6 2060 10 152 5 289 52 1 2 905 28 6 689 6 8 768 7 6 439 4 3 62 0 6 2065 10 318 5 256 51 0 3 109 30 1 677 6 6 765 7 4 447 4 3 64 0 6 2070 10 459 5 207 49 8 3 308 31 6 667 6 4 759 7 3 454 4 3 66 0 6 2075 10 577 5 143 48 6 3 499 33 1 657 6 2 750 7 1 461 4 4 67 0 6 2080 10 674 5 068 47 5 3 681 34 5 650 6 1 739 6 9 468 4 4 69 0 7 2085 10 750 4 987 46 4 3 851 35 8 643 6 0 726 6 8 474 4 4 71 0 7 2090 10 810 4 901 45 3 4 008 37 1 638 5 9 711 6 6 479 4 4 72 0 7 2095 10 852 4 812 44 3 4 152 38 3 634 5 8 696 6 4 485 4 5 74 0 7 2100 10 875 4 719 43 4 4 280 39 4 630 5 8 680 6 3 491 4 5 75 0 7 Mathematical approximationsIn 1975 Sebastian von Hoerner proposed a formula for population growth which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025 142 The hyperbolic growth of the world population observed until the 1970s was later correlated to a non linear second order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development This feedback can be described as follows technological advance increase in the carrying capacity of land for people demographic growth more people more potential inventors acceleration of technological advance accelerating growth of the carrying capacity faster population growth accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors faster technological advance hence the faster growth of the Earth s carrying capacity for people and so on 143 The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition According to the Russian demographer Sergey Kapitsa 144 the world population grew between 67 000 BC and 1965 according to the following formula N C t arccot T 0 T t displaystyle N frac C tau operatorname arccot frac T 0 T tau where N is current population T is the current year C 1 86 0 01 1011 T0 2007 1 t displaystyle tau 42 1 Years for world population to double According to linear interpolation and extrapolation of UNDESA population estimates the world population has doubled or will double in the years listed in the tables below with two different starting points During the 2nd millennium each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above However after 2024 it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century 145 Historic chart showing the periods of time the world population has taken to double from 1700 to 2000 Starting at 500 million Population in billions 0 5 1 2 4 8 16Year 1500 1804 1927 1974 2022 n aYears elapsed 304 123 47 48 Starting at 375 million Population in billions 0 375 0 75 1 5 3 6 12Year 1171 1715 1881 1960 1999 c 2100 146 Years elapsed 544 166 79 39 c 100 Number of humans who have ever livedFurther information Prehistoric demography The total number of humans who have ever lived is estimated to be approximately 100 billion Such estimates can only be rough approximations as even modern population estimates are subject to uncertainty of around 3 to 5 16 Kapitsa 1996 cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion 147 The PRB puts the figure at 117 billion as of 2020 estimating that the current world population is 6 7 of all the humans who have ever lived 148 Haub 1995 prepared another figure updated in 2002 and 2011 the 2011 figure was approximately 107 billion 149 150 151 Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period 150 Robust population data only exist for the last two or three centuries Until the late 18th century few governments had ever performed an accurate census In many early attempts such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service 152 Thus there is a significant margin of error when estimating ancient global populations Pre modern infant mortality rates are another critical factor for such an estimate these rates are very difficult to estimate for ancient times due to a lack of accurate records Haub 1995 estimates that around 40 of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday Haub also stated that life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history 150 which is not to be mistaken for the life expectancy after reaching adulthood The latter equally depended on period location and social standing but calculations identify averages from roughly 30 years upward See alsoDemographics of the world Anthropocene Birth control Coastal population growth Demographic transition Population decline Doomsday argument Family planning Food security Human overpopulation Megacity Natalism One child policy Population growth Population dynamics Two child policyLists List of population concern organizations List of countries and dependencies by population List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate List of countries by population growth rate List of countries by past and projected future population List of countries by population in 1900 List of countries and dependencies by population density List of largest cities List of religious populations Lists of organisms by population for non human global populationsHistorical Historical censuses Historical demographyExplanatory notes Excluding its Special Administrative Regions 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from the original on 21 May 2017 Retrieved 7 March 2016 Sebastien von Hoerner 1975 Population Explosion and Interstellar Expansion Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 28 28 691 712 Bibcode 1975JBIS 28 691V Introduction to Social Macrodynamics Archived 10 February 2012 at the Wayback Machine Andrey Korotayev et al For a rigorous mathematical analysis of this issue see A Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth 1 CE 1973 CE Archived 17 February 2019 at the Wayback Machine Kapitsa Sergei P 1996 The phenomenological theory of world population growth Physics Uspekhi 39 1 57 71 Bibcode 1996PhyU 39 57K doi 10 1070 pu1996v039n01abeh000127 S2CID 250877833 Archived from the original on 11 May 2009 Retrieved 26 July 2013 Lutz Wolfgang Sanderson Warren Scherbov Sergei 19 June 1997 Doubling of world population unlikely PDF Nature 387 6635 803 805 Bibcode 1997Natur 387 803L doi 10 1038 42935 PMID 9194559 S2CID 4306159 No way to stop human population growth www science org Sergei P Kapitza The phenomenological theory of world population growth Physics Uspekhi 39 1 57 71 1996 citing K M Weiss Human Biology 56637 1984 and N Keyfitz Applied Mathematical Demography New York Wiley 1977 How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth PRB Retrieved 1 November 2021 Curtin Ciara 1 March 2007 Fact or Fiction Living People Outnumber the Dead Scientific American Scientific American Inc published September 2007 297 3 126 Bibcode 2007SciAm 297c 126C doi 10 1038 scientificamerican0907 126 PMID 17784634 Retrieved 4 August 2008 Note text of paper publication slightly different from text of on line publication a b c Haub Carl November December 2002 How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth PDF Population Today Population Reference Bureau 30 8 3 4 Archived PDF from the original on 12 August 2011 Retrieved 4 August 2008 Haub Carl October 2011 How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth Population Reference Bureau Archived from the original on 24 April 2013 Retrieved 29 April 2013 Kuhrt A 1995 The Ancient Near East c 3000 330 BCE Vol 2 London Routledge p 695 Sources This article incorporates public domain material from World Factbook CIA Further readingCohen Joel E 1995 How Many People Can the Earth Support New York W W Norton ISBN 978 0 393 31495 3 World Population Prospects the 2012 Revision United Nations Population Division Retrieved 19 May 2014 World Population Prospects the 2010 Revision United Nations Population Division Retrieved 25 June 2013 World Population History Graph World population graph 10000 BC AD 1950 Symptoms of The Global Demographic Decline Demographia ru Retrieved 25 June 2013 World The World Factbook US Central Intelligence Agency CIA Retrieved 6 November 2012 The World in Balance transcript Two part PBS Nova episode on world population 20 April 2004 Retrieved 19 July 2013 The Environmental Politics of Population and Overpopulation University of California Berkeley 2012 Retrieved 19 July 2013 Global population Faces of the future The Economist 22 June 2013 Retrieved 25 June 2013 Creating new life and other ways to feed the world BBC News 23 July 2013 Retrieved 23 July 2013 World Population Growth Oct 2016 Esteban Ortiz Ospina and Max Roser OurWorldInData org Human population numbers as a function of food supply Russel Hopfenberg Duke University Durham NC David Pimentel Cornell University Ithaca NY External links Wikimedia Commons has media related to World population statistics Organizations The Day of 6 Billion and 7 Billion Official homepages maintained by UNFPA Population Reference Bureau News and issues related to population Berlin Institute for Population and DevelopmentStatistics and maps HiveGroup com World population statistics presented in a treemap interface Win tue nl World countries mapped by population sizePopulation clocks U S and World Population Clock US Census Bureau World Population Clock Worldometer Portal World Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title World 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