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Population growth

Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year.[2] The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020.[3] The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.[4] However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100.[5]

Absolute increase in global human population per year[1]

World human population has been growing since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350.[6] A mix of technological advancement that improved agricultural productivity and sanitation and medical advancement that reduced mortality increased population growth. In some geographies, this has slowed through the process called the demographic transition, where many nations with high standards of living have seen a significant slowing of population growth. This is in direct contrast with less developed contexts, where population growth is still happening.[7] Globally, the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2.2% per year in 1963.[8] The global human population is projected to peak during the mid-21st century and decline by 2100.[9]

Population growth alongside increased consumption is a driver of environmental concerns, such as biodiversity loss and climate change,[10][11] due to overexploitation of natural resources for human development.[12] International policy focused on mitigating the impact of human population growth is concentrated in the Sustainable Development Goals which seek to improve the standard of living globally while reducing the impact of society on the environment while advancing human well being.

Population[13]
Years
passed
Year Pop.
(billions)
1800 1
127 1927 2
33 1960 3
14 1974 4
13 1987 5
12 1999 6
12 2011 7
11 2022 8
14 2037* 9
18 2055* 10
33 2088* 11
*World Population Prospects 2017
(United Nations Population Division)

History

 
World human population estimates from 1800 to 2100, with estimated range of future population after 2020 based on "high" and "low" scenarios. Data from the United Nations projections in 2019.

World population has been rising continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350.[6] Population began growing rapidly in the Western world during the industrial revolution. The most significant increase in the world's population has been since the 1950s, mainly due to medical advancements[14] and increases in agricultural productivity.[15]

Haber process

Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food, the Haber process, named after one of its inventors, the German chemist Fritz Haber, served as the "detonator of the population explosion", enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2019.[16]

Thomas McKeown hypotheses

Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"[17] were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:

  1. McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality,[18][19]
  2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
  3. His most controversial idea, or at least his most disputed idea, was that he questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine,[20]
  4. The sometimes fierce disputes that his publication provoked around the "McKeown thesis" have overshadowed his more important and largely unchallenged argument that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century[18] but also until well into the 20th century.[21]

Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.[22] His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine".[23]

Growth rate models

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

 

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.[24]

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources.[25] In the world human population, growth has been following a linear trend throughout the last few decades.[8]

 
The logistic growth of a population

Logistic equation

The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation[26]

 

where

  •   = the population after time t;
  •   = time a population grows;
  •   = the relative growth rate coefficient;
  •   = the carrying capacity of the population; defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain.[25]

As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:

 ,

where   and   is the initial population at time 0.

Population growth rate

 
A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World Factbook's 2016 data
 
Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people. (2011)
 
World population growth rates between 1950 and 2050

The world population growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2.2% per year and subsequently declined.[8] In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[27] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.[28] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution.[29]

The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million.[27] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.[30]

In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.[31] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.[32]

The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that the global population will peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion and decline to 8.89 billion in 2100. [9] A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.[33][34] The German Foundation for World Population reported in December 2019 that the global human population grows by 2.6 people every second, and could reach 8 billion by 2023.[35][36]

Growth by country

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.[37] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth rate was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).[37]

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
Rank Country Population Annual Growth (%)
1990 2010 2020 (est.)[38] 1990–2010 2010–2020
World 5,306,425,000 6,895,889,000 7,503,828,180 1.3% 0.8%
1   China 1,139,060,000 1,341,335,000 1,384,688,986 0.8% 0.3%
2   India 873,785,000 1,224,614,000 1,296,834,042 1.7% 0.6%
3   United States 253,339,000 310,384,000 329,256,465 1.0% 0.6%
4   Indonesia 184,346,000 239,871,000 262,787,403 1.3% 0.9%
5   Brazil 149,650,000 194,946,000 208,846,892 1.3% 0.7%
6   Pakistan 111,845,000 173,593,000 207,862,518 2.2% 1.8%
7   Nigeria 97,552,000 158,423,000 203,452,505 2.5% 2.5%
8   Bangladesh 105,256,000 148,692,000 159,453,001 1.7% 0.7%
9   Russia 148,244,000 142,958,000 142,122,776 -0.2% −0.1%
10   Japan 122,251,000 128,057,000 126,168,156 0.2% −0.1%

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,[39] further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.

The following table gives some example countries or territories:

Country/territory Population in Life expectancy
in years (2008)
Total population
growth from 1960s
to 2007-2011
1967 1990 1994 2002 2008
  Eritrea* N/A* N/A* 3,437,000[40] 4,298,269 5,673,520[41] 61[42] 2,236,520
  Ethiopia* 23,457,000*[43] 50,974,000* [44] 54,939,000[40] 67,673,031(2003) 79,221,000[45] 55[42] 55,764,000
  Sudan 14,355,000†[43] 25,204,000† [44] 27,361,000†[40] 38,114,160 (2003)† 42,272,000†[41] 50†[42] 27,917,000
  Chad 3,410,000[43] 5,679,000[44] 6,183,000[40] 9,253,493(2003) 10,329,208 (2009)[39] 47[42] 6,919,205
  Niger 3,546,000[43] 7,732,000[44] 8,846,000[40] 10,790,352 (2001) 15,306,252 (2009)[46] 44[42] 11,760,252
  Nigeria 61,450,000[43] 88,500,000[44] 108,467,000[40] 129,934,911 158,259,000[41] 47[42] 96,809,000
  Mali 4,745,000[43] 8,156,000[44] 10,462,000[40] 11,340,480 14,517,176(2010)[47] 50[42] 9,772,176
  Mauritania 1,050,000[43] 2,025,000 [44] 2,211,000[40] 2,667,859 (2003) 3,291,000 (2009)[39] 54[42] 2,241,000
  Senegal 3,607,000[43] 7,327,000[44] 8,102,000[40] 9,967,215 13,711,597 (2009)[48] 57[42] 10,104,597
  Gambia 343,000[43] 861,000[44] 1,081,000[40] 1,367,124 (2000) 1,705,000[41] 55[42] 1,362,000
  Algeria 11,833,126 [43] 25,012,000[44] 27,325,000 [40] 32,818,500 (2003) 34,895,000[45][49] 74[42] 23,061,874
  The DRC/Zaire 16,353,000[43] 35,562,000[44] 42,552,000[40] 55,225,478 (2003) 70,916,439 [45][50] 54[42] 54,563,439
  Egypt 30,083,419 [43] 53,153,000[44] 58,326,000[40] 70,712,345 (2003) 79,089,650 [45][51] 72[42] 49,006,231
  Réunion
(overseas region of France)
418,000[43] N/A[44] N/A[40] 720,934 (2003) 827,000 (2009) [41] N/A[42] 409,000
  Falkland Islands
(British Overseas Territory)
2,500[43] N/A[44] N/A[40] 2,967 (2003) 3,140(2010)[52] N/A[42] 640
  Chile 8,935,500[43] 13,173,000[44] 13,994,000[40] 15,116,435 17,224,200 (2011) 77[42] 8,288,700
  Colombia 19,191,000[43] 32,987,000[44] 34,520,000[40] 41,088,227 45,925,397 (2010)[53] 73[42] 26,734,397
  Brazil 85,655,000[43] 150,368,000[44] 153,725,000[40] 174,468,575 (2000) 190,732,694 (2010) [54] 72[42] 105,077,694
  Mexico 45,671,000[43] 86,154,000[44] 93,008,000[40] 103,400,165 (2000) 112,322,757 (2010)[55] 76[42] 66,651,757
  Fiji 476,727 (1966)[43] 765,000[44] 771,000[40] 844,330 (2001) 849,000[49] (2010) 70[42] 372,273
  Nauru 6,050 [43] 10,000[44] N/A[40] 12,329 9,322 (2011)[56] N/A[42] 3,272
  Jamaica 1,876,000[43] 2,420,000[44] 2,429,000[40] 2,695,867 (2003) 2,847,232[57](2010) 74[42] 971,232
  Australia 11,540,764 [43] 17,086,000[44] 17,843,000[40] 19,546,792 (2003) 26,512,196[58] (2010) 82[42] 10,066,508
  Albania 1,965,500 (1964)[43] 3,250,000[44] 3,414,000[40] 3,510,484 2,986,952 (July 2010 est.)[39][59] 78[42] 1,021,452
  Poland 31,944,000[43] 38,180,000[44] 38,554,000[40] 38,626,349 (2001) 38,192,000 (2010)[60] 75[42] 6,248,000
  Hungary 10,212,000[43] 10,553,000[44] 10,261,000[40] 10,106,017 9,979,000 (2010)[61] 73[42] -142,000
  Bulgaria 8,226,564 (1965)[43] 8,980,000[44] 8,443,000[40] 7,707,495(2000) 7,351,234 (2011)[62] 73[42] -875,330
  United Kingdom 55,068,000 (1966)[43] 57,411,000[44] 58,091,000[40] 58,789,194 62,008,048 (2010)[63] 79[42] 7,020,048
  Ireland 2,884,002 (1966)[43] 3,503,000[44] 3,571,000[40] 3,840,838 (2000) 4,470,700[64] (2010) 78[42] 1,586,698
  People's Republic of China 720,000,000[43] 1,139,060,000[44] 1,208,841,000[40] 1,286,975,468 (2004) 1,339,724,852 (2010)[65] 73[42] 619,724,852
  Japan 98,274,961 (1965)[43] 123,537,000[44] 124,961,000[40] 127,333,002 127,420,000 (2010)[66] 82[42] 28,123,865
  India# 511,115,000[43] 843,931,000[44] 918,570,000[40] 1,028,610,328 (2001) 1,210,193,422 (2011)[67] 69[42] 699,078,422
  Singapore 1,956,000 (1967)[43] 3,003,000 (1990) [44] 2,930,000 (1994)[40] 4,452,732 (2002) 5,076,700 (2010)[68] 82 (2008)[42] 3,120,700
  Monaco 24,000 (1967)[43] 29,000 (1990) [44] N/A (1994)[40] 31,842 (2000) 35,586[69] (2010) (2008)[42] 11,586
  Greece 8,716,000 (1967)[43] 10,123,000 (1990) [44] 10,426,000 (1994)[40] 10,964,020 (2001)[70] 11,305,118 (2011)[71] N/A (2008)[42] 2,589,118
  Faroe Islands
(Danish dependency)
38,000 (1967)[43] N/A (1990) [44] N/A (1994)[40] 46,345 (2000) 48,917 (2010) [72] N/A (2008)[42] 18,917
  Liechtenstein 20,000 (1967)[43] 29,000 (1990) [44] N/A (1994)[40] 33,307 (2000) 35,789 (2009)[73] (2008)[42] 15,789
  South Korea 29,207,856 (1966)[43] 42,793,000 (1990) [44] 44,453,000 (1994)[40] 48,324,000 (2003) 48,875,000 (2010) [74] (2008)[42] 19,667,144
  North Korea 12,700,000 (1967)[43] 21,773,000 (1990) [44] 23,483,000 (1994)[40] 22,224,195 (2002) 24,051,218 (2010)[75] (2008)[42] 11,351,218
  Brunei 107,200 (1967)[43] 266,000 (1990) [44] 280,000 (1994)[40] 332,844 (2001) 401,890 (2011)[76] 76 (2008)[42] 306,609
  Malaysia 10,671,000 (1967)[43] 17,861,000 (1990) [44] 19,489,000 (1994)[40] 21,793,293 (2002) 27,565,821 (2010)[77] (2008)[42] 16,894,821
  Thailand 32,680,000 (1967)[43] 57,196,000 (1990) [44] 59,396,000 (1994)[40] 60,606,947 (2000)[78] 63,878,267 (2011)[79] (2008)[42] 31,198,267
  Lebanon 2,520,000 (1967)[43] 2,701,000 (1990) [44] 2,915,000 (1994)[40] 3,727,703[80] (2003) 4,224,000[41] (2009) - (2008)[42]
  Syria 5,600,000 (1967)[43] 12,116,000 (1990) [44] 13,844,000 (1994)[40] 17,585,540 (2003) 22,457,763 (2011)[81] -(2008)[42]
  Bahrain 182,00 (1967)[43] 503,000 (1990) [44] 549,000 (1994)[40] 667,238 (2003) 1,234,596[82] (2010) 75 (2008)[42]
  Sri Lanka 11,741,000 (1967)[43] 16,993,000 (1990) [44] 17,685,000 (1994)[40] 19,607,519 (2002) 20,238,000[49] (2009) - (2008)[42]
  Switzerland 6,050,000 (1967)[43] 6.712,000 (1990) [44] 6,994,000 (1994)[40] 7,261,200 (2002) 7,866,500[83] (2010) - (2008)[42]
  Luxembourg 335,000 (1967)[43] 381,000 (1990) [44] 401,000 (1994)[40] 439,539 (2001) 511,840 (2011)[84] - (2008)[42]
  Romania 19,105,056 (1966)[43] 23,200,000 (1990)[44] 22,736,000 (1994)[40] 21,680,974 (2002) 21,466,174[85] (2011) - (2008)[42]
  Niue
(associated state of New Zealand)
1,900 (1966)[43] N/A (1990)[44] N/A (1994)[40] 2,134 (2002) 1,398 (2009)[86] N/A (2008)[42] -502
  Tokelau
(New Zealand territory)
5,194 (1966)[43] N/A (1990)[44] N/A (1994)[40] 1,445 (2001) 1,416 (2009) N/A (2008)[42] -3,778
  Jamaica 1,876,000 (1967)[43] 2,420,000 (1990) [44] 2,429,000 (1994)[40] 2,695,867 (2003) 2,847,232[57] (2010) 74 (2008)[42] 971,232
  Argentina 32,031,000 (1967)[43] 32,322,000 (1990)[44] 34,180,000 (1994)[40] 37,812,817 (2002) 40,091,359 (2010) 74 (2008)[42] 8,060,359
  France 49,890,660 (1967)[43] 56,440,000 (1990)[44] 57,747,000 (1994)[40] 59,551,000 (2001) 63,136,180 (2011)[87] 81 (2008)[42]
  Italy 52,334,000 (1967)[43] 57,662,000 (1990)[44] 57,193,000 (1994)[40] 56,995,744 (2002) 60,605,053[88] (2011) 80 (2008)[42]
  Mauritius 774,000 (1967)[43] 1,075,000 (1990)[44] 1,104,000 (1994)[40] 1,179,137 (2000) 1,288,000 (2009)[49] 75 (2008)[42] 514,000
  Guatemala 4,717,000 (1967)[43] 9,197,000 (1990)[44] 10,322,000 (1994)[40] 12,974,361 (2000) 13,276,517 (2009) 70 (2008)[42] 8,559,517
  Cuba 8,033,000 (1967)[43] 10,609,000 (1990)[44] 10,960,000 (1994)[40] 11,177,743 (2002) 11,239,363 (2009)[89] 77 (2008)[42]
  Barbados 246,000 (1967)[43] 255,000 (1990) [44] 261,000 (1994)[40] 250,012 (2001) 284,589 (2010)[39] 73 (2008)[42] 18,589
  Samoa 131,377 (1967)[43] 164,000 (1990) [44] 164,000 (1994)[40] 178,173 (2003) 179,000 (2009)[41] N/A (2008)[42]
  Sweden 7,765,981 (1967)[43] 8,559,000 (1990) [44] 8,794,000 (1994)[40] 8,920,705 (2002) 9,354,462 (2009) 81 (2008)[42]
  Finland 4,664,000 (1967)[43] 4,986,000 (1990) [44] 5,095,000 (1994)[40] 5,175,783 (2002) 5,374,781 (2010) N/A (2008)[42]
  Portugal 9,440,000 (1967)[43] 10,525,000 (1990)[44] 9,830,000 (1994)[40] 10,355,824 (2001) 10,647,763[90] (2011) N/A (2008)[42]
  Austria 7,323,981 (1967)[43] 7,712,000 (1990) [44] 8,031,000 (1994)[40] 8,032,926 (2001) 8,404,252 (2011) N/A (2008)[42]
  Libya 1,738,000 (1967)[43] 4,545,000 (1990)[44] 5,225,000(1994)[40] 5,499,074 (2002) 6,420,000 (2009)[41] 77 (2008)[42]
  Peru 12,385,000 (1967)[43] 21,550,000 (1990)[44] 23,080,000(1994)[40] 27,949,639 (2002) 29,496,000 (2010) 70 (2008)[42]
  Guinea Bissau 528,000 (1967)[43] 965,000 (1990) [44] 1,050,000 (1994)[40] 1,345,479 (2002) 1,647,000[41] (2009) 48 (2008)[42]
  Angola 5,203,066 (1967)[43] 10,020,000 (1990)[44] 10,674,000 (1994)[40] 10,766,500 (2003) 18,498,000[49][91] (2009) 38 (2008)[42]
  Equatorial Guinea 277,000 (1967)[43] 348,000 (1990)[44] 389,000 (1994)[40] 474,214 (2000) 676,000 (2009)[49] 61 (2008)[42]
  Benin 2,505,000 (1967)[43] 4,736,000 (1990)[44] 5,246,000 (1994)[40] 8,500,500 (2002) 8,791,832 (2009) 59 (2008)[42]
  Laos 2,770,000 (1967)[43] 4,139,000 (1990)[44] 4,742,000 (1994)[40] 5,635,967 (2002) 6,800,000[92] (2011) 56 (2008)[42]
  Nepal 10,500,000 (1967)[43] 18,961,000 (1990)[44] 21,360,000 (1994)[40] 25,284,463 (2002) 29,331,000[49] (2009) - (2008)[42]
  Iran 25,781,090 (1966)[43] 54,608,000 (1990)[44] 59,778,000 (1994)[40] 66,622,704 (2002) 75,330,000 (2010)[93] 71 (2008)[42] 49,548,910
  Canada 20,014,880 (1966)[43] 26,603,000 (1990)[44] 29,248,000(1994)[40] 31,081,900 (2001) 32,623,490 (2011)[94] 81 (2008)[42]
  United States 199,118,000 (1967)[43] 249,995,000 (1990)[44] 260,650,00(1994)[40] 281,421,906 (2000) 308,745,538 (2010)[95] 78 (2008)[42]
  Uganda 7,931,000 (1967)[43] 18,795,000 (1990)[44] 20,621,000 (1994)[40] 24,227,297 (2002) 32,369,558 (2009) 52 (2008)[42]
Notes
* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991.
† Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011.
‡ Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972.
# India and Sikkim merged in 1975.
Population growth 1990–2012 (%)[96]
Africa 73.3%
Middle East 68.2%
Asia (excl. China) 42.8%
China 19.0%
OECD Americas 27.9%
Non-OECD Americas 36.6%
OECD Europe 11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania 11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia -0.8%
 
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The capital, Dhaka, bustles around Nilkhet Mor.

Future population

 
1. World population growth 1700–2100, 2022 projection

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future.[97] These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being.[98] Models of population growth take trends in human development, and apply projections into the future.[99] These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.[99]

The 2019 projections from the United Nations Population Division (chart #1 showing the 2022 revision of this) showed that annual world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1968, has since dropped to 1.1% in 2019, and projected that it could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100, which would be a growth rate not seen since pre-industrial revolution days.[100] Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2022, would level out around 2100 at 10.9 billion,[101] assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.9 in 2095–2100, according to the medium-variant projection.[101]
 
2. World population prospects, 2022 projection[102]
The most recent report from the UN, issued in 2022 (chart #2), now projects that global population will peak earlier, around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline (the median line on the chart).  As with the 2019 projection, this version assumes that the global average fertility rate will continue to fall, but even further from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100.[103][104]

However, estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility (such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals) which could result in peak population during the 2060–2070 period rather than later.[99][105]

According to the UN, of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050, all of that change will come from less developed countries, and more than half will come from the African continent.[103][104][106] Half of the growth will come from just eight countries, five of which are in Africa.[103][104] It is predicted that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050.[106] The Pew Research Center observes that 50% of births in the year 2100 will be in Africa.[107] Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa, based particularly on improvement in women's education and successful implementation of family planning.[108]

During the remainder of this century some countries will see population growth, some will see population decline.  For example the UN projects that Nigeria will gain about 340 million people, about the present population of the US, to become the 3rd most populous country, and China will lose almost half of its population.[103][104]

Even though the global fertility rate continues to fall, chart #2 above shows that because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, until the mid 2080s. The main driver of long-term future population growth on this planet is projected to be the continuing evolution of fertility and mortality[99]
 
Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE
 
The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.

See also

References

  1. ^ . Our World in Data. Archived from the original on 28 February 2021. Retrieved 15 February 2020.
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External links

  • . Website of the United Nations Population Division. Archived from the original on 2017-07-11.
  • "Food Production and Population Growth". Daniel Quinn, Alan D. Thornhill, PhD. Ecofuture. Population and Sustainability Media, Non-fiction.
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  • "Feeding the Ten Billion-Plants and Population Growth". PGR Newsletter FAO-Bioversity L.T. Evans. 2000. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-64685-5. Published in Issue No. 125, page 39 to 40 - (5802) characters

population, growth, increase, number, people, population, dispersed, group, actual, global, human, population, growth, amounts, around, million, annually, year, global, population, grown, from, billion, 1800, billion, 2020, projected, population, keep, growing. Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually or 1 1 per year 2 The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 9 billion in 2020 3 The UN projected population to keep growing and estimates have put the total population at 8 6 billion by mid 2030 9 8 billion by mid 2050 and 11 2 billion by 2100 4 However some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth in such a scenario population would peak before 2100 5 Absolute increase in global human population per year 1 World human population has been growing since the end of the Black Death around the year 1350 6 A mix of technological advancement that improved agricultural productivity and sanitation and medical advancement that reduced mortality increased population growth In some geographies this has slowed through the process called the demographic transition where many nations with high standards of living have seen a significant slowing of population growth This is in direct contrast with less developed contexts where population growth is still happening 7 Globally the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2 2 per year in 1963 8 The global human population is projected to peak during the mid 21st century and decline by 2100 9 Population growth alongside increased consumption is a driver of environmental concerns such as biodiversity loss and climate change 10 11 due to overexploitation of natural resources for human development 12 International policy focused on mitigating the impact of human population growth is concentrated in the Sustainable Development Goals which seek to improve the standard of living globally while reducing the impact of society on the environment while advancing human well being Population 13 Yearspassed Year Pop billions 1800 1127 1927 233 1960 314 1974 413 1987 512 1999 612 2011 711 2022 814 2037 918 2055 1033 2088 11 World Population Prospects 2017 United Nations Population Division Contents 1 History 1 1 Haber process 1 2 Thomas McKeown hypotheses 2 Growth rate models 2 1 Logistic equation 3 Population growth rate 4 Growth by country 5 Future population 6 See also 7 References 8 External linksHistory Edit World human population estimates from 1800 to 2100 with estimated range of future population after 2020 based on high and low scenarios Data from the United Nations projections in 2019 World population has been rising continuously since the end of the Black Death around the year 1350 6 Population began growing rapidly in the Western world during the industrial revolution The most significant increase in the world s population has been since the 1950s mainly due to medical advancements 14 and increases in agricultural productivity 15 Haber process Edit Main article Haber process Economic and environmental aspects Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food the Haber process named after one of its inventors the German chemist Fritz Haber served as the detonator of the population explosion enabling the global population to increase from 1 6 billion in 1900 to 7 7 billion by November 2019 16 Thomas McKeown hypotheses Edit Some of the reasons for the Modern Rise of Population 17 were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown 1912 1988 In his publications McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth McKeown stated that the growth in Western population particularly surging in the 19th century was not so much caused by an increase in fertility but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality 18 19 The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status His most controversial idea or at least his most disputed idea was that he questioned the effectiveness of public health measures including sanitary reforms vaccination and quarantine 20 The sometimes fierce disputes that his publication provoked around the McKeown thesis have overshadowed his more important and largely unchallenged argument that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline not only prior to the mid 20th century 18 but also until well into the 20th century 21 Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas 22 His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth birth control public health and medical care McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W Fogel 1993 and Angus Deaton 2015 The latter considered McKeown as the founder of social medicine 23 Growth rate models EditThe population growth rate is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period expressed as a fraction of the initial population Specifically population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period This can be written as the formula valid for a sufficiently small time interval P o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e P t 2 P t 1 P t 1 t 2 t 1 Population growth rate frac P t 2 P t 1 P t 1 t 2 t 1 A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates death rates immigration rates and age distribution between the two times 24 A related measure is the net reproduction rate In the absence of migration a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing while a net reproduction rate less than one sub replacement fertility indicates that the population of females is decreasing Most populations do not grow exponentially rather they follow a logistic model Once the population has reached its carrying capacity it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources 25 In the world human population growth has been following a linear trend throughout the last few decades 8 The logistic growth of a population Logistic equation Edit The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation 26 d P d t r P 1 P K displaystyle frac dP dt rP left 1 frac P K right where P t P t the population after time t t t time a population grows r r the relative growth rate coefficient K K the carrying capacity of the population defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain 25 As it is a separable differential equation the population may be solved explicitly producing a logistic function P t K 1 A e r t displaystyle P t frac K 1 Ae rt where A K P 0 P 0 A frac K P 0 P 0 and P 0 P 0 is the initial population at time 0 Population growth rate EditFurther information Total fertility rate Estimates of historical world population and Population dynamics See also Human overpopulation and Overshoot population A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World Factbook s 2016 data 7 8 children 6 7 children 5 6 children 4 5 children 3 4 children 2 3 children 1 2 children 0 1 children Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people 2011 World population growth rates between 1950 and 2050 The world population growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2 2 per year and subsequently declined 8 In 2017 the estimated annual growth rate was 1 1 27 The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate mortality rate and growth rate as 1 86 0 78 and 1 08 respectively 28 The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population due to medical advances lower mortality rates and an increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution 29 The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88 0 million in 1989 then slowly declined to 73 9 million in 2003 after which it rose again to 75 2 million in 2006 In 2017 the human population increased by 83 million 27 Generally developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades though annual growth rates remain above 2 in some countries of the Middle East and Sub Saharan Africa and also in South Asia Southeast Asia and Latin America 30 In some countries the population is declining especially in Eastern Europe mainly due to low fertility rates high death rates and emigration In Southern Africa growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS related deaths Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline 31 Japan s population began decreasing in 2005 32 The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11 2 billion by the end of the 21st century The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that the global population will peak in 2064 at 9 73 billion and decline to 8 89 billion in 2100 9 A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100 with a 70 chance of continued growth into the 22nd century 33 34 The German Foundation for World Population reported in December 2019 that the global human population grows by 2 6 people every second and could reach 8 billion by 2023 35 36 Growth by country EditMain article List of countries by population growth rate According to United Nations population statistics the world population grew by 30 or 1 6 billion humans between 1990 and 2010 37 In number of people the increase was highest in India 350 million and China 196 million Population growth rate was among highest in the United Arab Emirates 315 and Qatar 271 37 Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues Growth rates of the world s most populous countries Rank Country Population Annual Growth 1990 2010 2020 est 38 1990 2010 2010 2020World 5 306 425 000 6 895 889 000 7 503 828 180 1 3 0 8 1 China 1 139 060 000 1 341 335 000 1 384 688 986 0 8 0 3 2 India 873 785 000 1 224 614 000 1 296 834 042 1 7 0 6 3 United States 253 339 000 310 384 000 329 256 465 1 0 0 6 4 Indonesia 184 346 000 239 871 000 262 787 403 1 3 0 9 5 Brazil 149 650 000 194 946 000 208 846 892 1 3 0 7 6 Pakistan 111 845 000 173 593 000 207 862 518 2 2 1 8 7 Nigeria 97 552 000 158 423 000 203 452 505 2 5 2 5 8 Bangladesh 105 256 000 148 692 000 159 453 001 1 7 0 7 9 Russia 148 244 000 142 958 000 142 122 776 0 2 0 1 10 Japan 122 251 000 128 057 000 126 168 156 0 2 0 1 Many of the world s countries including many in Sub Saharan Africa the Middle East South Asia and South East Asia have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources food supplies fuel supplies employment housing etc in some of the less fortunate countries For example the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6 279 921 in 1993 to 10 329 208 in 2009 39 further straining its resources Vietnam Mexico Nigeria Egypt Ethiopia and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population The following table gives some example countries or territories Country territory Population in Life expectancyin years 2008 Total populationgrowth from 1960sto 2007 20111967 1990 1994 2002 2008 Eritrea N A N A 3 437 000 40 4 298 269 5 673 520 41 61 42 2 236 520 Ethiopia 23 457 000 43 50 974 000 44 54 939 000 40 67 673 031 2003 79 221 000 45 55 42 55 764 000 Sudan 14 355 000 43 25 204 000 44 27 361 000 40 38 114 160 2003 42 272 000 41 50 42 27 917 000 Chad 3 410 000 43 5 679 000 44 6 183 000 40 9 253 493 2003 10 329 208 2009 39 47 42 6 919 205 Niger 3 546 000 43 7 732 000 44 8 846 000 40 10 790 352 2001 15 306 252 2009 46 44 42 11 760 252 Nigeria 61 450 000 43 88 500 000 44 108 467 000 40 129 934 911 158 259 000 41 47 42 96 809 000 Mali 4 745 000 43 8 156 000 44 10 462 000 40 11 340 480 14 517 176 2010 47 50 42 9 772 176 Mauritania 1 050 000 43 2 025 000 44 2 211 000 40 2 667 859 2003 3 291 000 2009 39 54 42 2 241 000 Senegal 3 607 000 43 7 327 000 44 8 102 000 40 9 967 215 13 711 597 2009 48 57 42 10 104 597 Gambia 343 000 43 861 000 44 1 081 000 40 1 367 124 2000 1 705 000 41 55 42 1 362 000 Algeria 11 833 126 43 25 012 000 44 27 325 000 40 32 818 500 2003 34 895 000 45 49 74 42 23 061 874 The DRC Zaire 16 353 000 43 35 562 000 44 42 552 000 40 55 225 478 2003 70 916 439 45 50 54 42 54 563 439 Egypt 30 083 419 43 53 153 000 44 58 326 000 40 70 712 345 2003 79 089 650 45 51 72 42 49 006 231 Reunion overseas region of France 418 000 43 N A 44 N A 40 720 934 2003 827 000 2009 41 N A 42 409 000 Falkland Islands British Overseas Territory 2 500 43 N A 44 N A 40 2 967 2003 3 140 2010 52 N A 42 640 Chile 8 935 500 43 13 173 000 44 13 994 000 40 15 116 435 17 224 200 2011 77 42 8 288 700 Colombia 19 191 000 43 32 987 000 44 34 520 000 40 41 088 227 45 925 397 2010 53 73 42 26 734 397 Brazil 85 655 000 43 150 368 000 44 153 725 000 40 174 468 575 2000 190 732 694 2010 54 72 42 105 077 694 Mexico 45 671 000 43 86 154 000 44 93 008 000 40 103 400 165 2000 112 322 757 2010 55 76 42 66 651 757 Fiji 476 727 1966 43 765 000 44 771 000 40 844 330 2001 849 000 49 2010 70 42 372 273 Nauru 6 050 43 10 000 44 N A 40 12 329 9 322 2011 56 N A 42 3 272 Jamaica 1 876 000 43 2 420 000 44 2 429 000 40 2 695 867 2003 2 847 232 57 2010 74 42 971 232 Australia 11 540 764 43 17 086 000 44 17 843 000 40 19 546 792 2003 26 512 196 58 2010 82 42 10 066 508 Albania 1 965 500 1964 43 3 250 000 44 3 414 000 40 3 510 484 2 986 952 July 2010 est 39 59 78 42 1 021 452 Poland 31 944 000 43 38 180 000 44 38 554 000 40 38 626 349 2001 38 192 000 2010 60 75 42 6 248 000 Hungary 10 212 000 43 10 553 000 44 10 261 000 40 10 106 017 9 979 000 2010 61 73 42 142 000 Bulgaria 8 226 564 1965 43 8 980 000 44 8 443 000 40 7 707 495 2000 7 351 234 2011 62 73 42 875 330 United Kingdom 55 068 000 1966 43 57 411 000 44 58 091 000 40 58 789 194 62 008 048 2010 63 79 42 7 020 048 Ireland 2 884 002 1966 43 3 503 000 44 3 571 000 40 3 840 838 2000 4 470 700 64 2010 78 42 1 586 698 People s Republic of China 720 000 000 43 1 139 060 000 44 1 208 841 000 40 1 286 975 468 2004 1 339 724 852 2010 65 73 42 619 724 852 Japan 98 274 961 1965 43 123 537 000 44 124 961 000 40 127 333 002 127 420 000 2010 66 82 42 28 123 865 India 511 115 000 43 843 931 000 44 918 570 000 40 1 028 610 328 2001 1 210 193 422 2011 67 69 42 699 078 422 Singapore 1 956 000 1967 43 3 003 000 1990 44 2 930 000 1994 40 4 452 732 2002 5 076 700 2010 68 82 2008 42 3 120 700 Monaco 24 000 1967 43 29 000 1990 44 N A 1994 40 31 842 2000 35 586 69 2010 2008 42 11 586 Greece 8 716 000 1967 43 10 123 000 1990 44 10 426 000 1994 40 10 964 020 2001 70 11 305 118 2011 71 N A 2008 42 2 589 118 Faroe Islands Danish dependency 38 000 1967 43 N A 1990 44 N A 1994 40 46 345 2000 48 917 2010 72 N A 2008 42 18 917 Liechtenstein 20 000 1967 43 29 000 1990 44 N A 1994 40 33 307 2000 35 789 2009 73 2008 42 15 789 South Korea 29 207 856 1966 43 42 793 000 1990 44 44 453 000 1994 40 48 324 000 2003 48 875 000 2010 74 2008 42 19 667 144 North Korea 12 700 000 1967 43 21 773 000 1990 44 23 483 000 1994 40 22 224 195 2002 24 051 218 2010 75 2008 42 11 351 218 Brunei 107 200 1967 43 266 000 1990 44 280 000 1994 40 332 844 2001 401 890 2011 76 76 2008 42 306 609 Malaysia 10 671 000 1967 43 17 861 000 1990 44 19 489 000 1994 40 21 793 293 2002 27 565 821 2010 77 2008 42 16 894 821 Thailand 32 680 000 1967 43 57 196 000 1990 44 59 396 000 1994 40 60 606 947 2000 78 63 878 267 2011 79 2008 42 31 198 267 Lebanon 2 520 000 1967 43 2 701 000 1990 44 2 915 000 1994 40 3 727 703 80 2003 4 224 000 41 2009 2008 42 Syria 5 600 000 1967 43 12 116 000 1990 44 13 844 000 1994 40 17 585 540 2003 22 457 763 2011 81 2008 42 Bahrain 182 00 1967 43 503 000 1990 44 549 000 1994 40 667 238 2003 1 234 596 82 2010 75 2008 42 Sri Lanka 11 741 000 1967 43 16 993 000 1990 44 17 685 000 1994 40 19 607 519 2002 20 238 000 49 2009 2008 42 Switzerland 6 050 000 1967 43 6 712 000 1990 44 6 994 000 1994 40 7 261 200 2002 7 866 500 83 2010 2008 42 Luxembourg 335 000 1967 43 381 000 1990 44 401 000 1994 40 439 539 2001 511 840 2011 84 2008 42 Romania 19 105 056 1966 43 23 200 000 1990 44 22 736 000 1994 40 21 680 974 2002 21 466 174 85 2011 2008 42 Niue associated state of New Zealand 1 900 1966 43 N A 1990 44 N A 1994 40 2 134 2002 1 398 2009 86 N A 2008 42 502 Tokelau New Zealand territory 5 194 1966 43 N A 1990 44 N A 1994 40 1 445 2001 1 416 2009 N A 2008 42 3 778 Jamaica 1 876 000 1967 43 2 420 000 1990 44 2 429 000 1994 40 2 695 867 2003 2 847 232 57 2010 74 2008 42 971 232 Argentina 32 031 000 1967 43 32 322 000 1990 44 34 180 000 1994 40 37 812 817 2002 40 091 359 2010 74 2008 42 8 060 359 France 49 890 660 1967 43 56 440 000 1990 44 57 747 000 1994 40 59 551 000 2001 63 136 180 2011 87 81 2008 42 Italy 52 334 000 1967 43 57 662 000 1990 44 57 193 000 1994 40 56 995 744 2002 60 605 053 88 2011 80 2008 42 Mauritius 774 000 1967 43 1 075 000 1990 44 1 104 000 1994 40 1 179 137 2000 1 288 000 2009 49 75 2008 42 514 000 Guatemala 4 717 000 1967 43 9 197 000 1990 44 10 322 000 1994 40 12 974 361 2000 13 276 517 2009 70 2008 42 8 559 517 Cuba 8 033 000 1967 43 10 609 000 1990 44 10 960 000 1994 40 11 177 743 2002 11 239 363 2009 89 77 2008 42 Barbados 246 000 1967 43 255 000 1990 44 261 000 1994 40 250 012 2001 284 589 2010 39 73 2008 42 18 589 Samoa 131 377 1967 43 164 000 1990 44 164 000 1994 40 178 173 2003 179 000 2009 41 N A 2008 42 Sweden 7 765 981 1967 43 8 559 000 1990 44 8 794 000 1994 40 8 920 705 2002 9 354 462 2009 81 2008 42 Finland 4 664 000 1967 43 4 986 000 1990 44 5 095 000 1994 40 5 175 783 2002 5 374 781 2010 N A 2008 42 Portugal 9 440 000 1967 43 10 525 000 1990 44 9 830 000 1994 40 10 355 824 2001 10 647 763 90 2011 N A 2008 42 Austria 7 323 981 1967 43 7 712 000 1990 44 8 031 000 1994 40 8 032 926 2001 8 404 252 2011 N A 2008 42 Libya 1 738 000 1967 43 4 545 000 1990 44 5 225 000 1994 40 5 499 074 2002 6 420 000 2009 41 77 2008 42 Peru 12 385 000 1967 43 21 550 000 1990 44 23 080 000 1994 40 27 949 639 2002 29 496 000 2010 70 2008 42 Guinea Bissau 528 000 1967 43 965 000 1990 44 1 050 000 1994 40 1 345 479 2002 1 647 000 41 2009 48 2008 42 Angola 5 203 066 1967 43 10 020 000 1990 44 10 674 000 1994 40 10 766 500 2003 18 498 000 49 91 2009 38 2008 42 Equatorial Guinea 277 000 1967 43 348 000 1990 44 389 000 1994 40 474 214 2000 676 000 2009 49 61 2008 42 Benin 2 505 000 1967 43 4 736 000 1990 44 5 246 000 1994 40 8 500 500 2002 8 791 832 2009 59 2008 42 Laos 2 770 000 1967 43 4 139 000 1990 44 4 742 000 1994 40 5 635 967 2002 6 800 000 92 2011 56 2008 42 Nepal 10 500 000 1967 43 18 961 000 1990 44 21 360 000 1994 40 25 284 463 2002 29 331 000 49 2009 2008 42 Iran 25 781 090 1966 43 54 608 000 1990 44 59 778 000 1994 40 66 622 704 2002 75 330 000 2010 93 71 2008 42 49 548 910 Canada 20 014 880 1966 43 26 603 000 1990 44 29 248 000 1994 40 31 081 900 2001 32 623 490 2011 94 81 2008 42 United States 199 118 000 1967 43 249 995 000 1990 44 260 650 00 1994 40 281 421 906 2000 308 745 538 2010 95 78 2008 42 Uganda 7 931 000 1967 43 18 795 000 1990 44 20 621 000 1994 40 24 227 297 2002 32 369 558 2009 52 2008 42 Notes Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991 Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011 Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972 India and Sikkim merged in 1975 Population growth 1990 2012 96 Africa 73 3 Middle East 68 2 Asia excl China 42 8 China 19 0 OECD Americas 27 9 Non OECD Americas 36 6 OECD Europe 11 5 OECD Asia Oceania 11 1 Non OECD Europe and Eurasia 0 8 Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world The capital Dhaka bustles around Nilkhet Mor Future population EditThis section is an excerpt from Projections of population growth edit 1 World population growth 1700 2100 2022 projection Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future 97 These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population s impact on this planet and humanity s future well being 98 Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future 99 These models use trend based assumptions about how populations will respond to economic social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality and thus population growth 99 The 2019 projections from the United Nations Population Division chart 1 showing the 2022 revision of this showed that annual world population growth peaked at 2 1 in 1968 has since dropped to 1 1 in 2019 and projected that it could drop even further to 0 1 by 2100 which would be a growth rate not seen since pre industrial revolution days 100 Based on this the UN projected that the world population 8 billion as of 2022 update would level out around 2100 at 10 9 billion 101 assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2 5 births per woman during the 2015 2020 period to 1 9 in 2095 2100 according to the medium variant projection 101 2 World population prospects 2022 projection 102 The most recent report from the UN issued in 2022 chart 2 now projects that global population will peak earlier around the year 2086 at about 10 4 billion and then start a slow decline the median line on the chart As with the 2019 projection this version assumes that the global average fertility rate will continue to fall but even further from 2 5 births per woman during the 2015 2020 period to 1 8 by the year 2100 103 104 However estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in the UN s Sustainable Development Goals which could result in peak population during the 2060 2070 period rather than later 99 105 According to the UN of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050 all of that change will come from less developed countries and more than half will come from the African continent 103 104 106 Half of the growth will come from just eight countries five of which are in Africa 103 104 It is predicted that the population of sub Saharan Africa will double by 2050 106 The Pew Research Center observes that 50 of births in the year 2100 will be in Africa 107 Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa based particularly on improvement in women s education and successful implementation of family planning 108 During the remainder of this century some countries will see population growth some will see population decline For example the UN projects that Nigeria will gain about 340 million people about the present population of the US to become the 3rd most populous country and China will lose almost half of its population 103 104 Even though the global fertility rate continues to fall chart 2 above shows that because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow although at a steadily slower rate until the mid 2080s The main driver of long term future population growth on this planet is projected to be the continuing evolution of fertility and mortality 99 Estimated size of human population from 10 000 BCE to 2000 CE The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries See also EditList of countries by population 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France metropolitaine INSEE in French Government of France Retrieved 20 January 2011 Monthly demographic balance January November 2010 PDF in Italian Istat 28 March 2011 Archived from the original PDF on 22 July 2012 Retrieved 2 April 2011 Anuario Estadistico de Cuba 2009 Edicion 2010 Archived 2010 07 16 at the Wayback Machine Oficina Nacional de Estadisticas Republica de Cuba Accessed on November 6 2010 Note An exchange rate of 1 CUC to 1 08 USD was used to convert GDP 1 Pordata Base de Dados Portugal Contemporaneo Accessed on March 7 2011 Population Forecast to 2060 by International Futures hosted by Google Public Data Explorer Retrieved 2011 07 13 Background notes Laos US Dept of State Retrieved 2011 01 20 Official Iranian Population clock Amar org ir Archived from the original on 2011 07 22 Retrieved 2011 07 13 Estimated population of Canada 1605 to present Statistics Canada 6 July 2009 Retrieved 2011 04 17 Resident Population Data 2010 U S Census Bureau 2010 Archived from the original on 2011 10 28 Retrieved 2010 12 22 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Archived 2015 12 02 at the Wayback Machine Population 1971 2014 IEA PDF Page 74 marked page 72 Population Projections United States Census Bureau Kaneda Toshiko June 2014 Understanding Population Projections Assumptions Behind the Numbers PDF Population Reference Bureau a b c d Roser Max 2013 05 09 Future Population Growth Our World in Data Roser Max June 18 2019 Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end Our World in Data a b World Population Prospects Standard Projections Archive 2019 Revision United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division 2019 World Population Prospects 2022 Graphs Profiles United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division 2022 a b c d World Population Prospects 2022 Standard Projections Compact File Estimates tab Total Population as of 1 January thousands column United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division 2022 a b c d World Population Prospects 2022 Standard Projections Compact File Variant tab Total Population as of 1 January thousands column United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division 2022 Vollset Stein Emil Goren Emily Yuan Chun Wei Cao Jackie Smith Amanda E Hsiao Thomas Bisignano Catherine Azhar Gulrez S Castro Emma Chalek Julian Dolgert Andrew J 2020 10 17 Fertility mortality migration and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100 a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study The Lancet 396 10258 1285 1306 doi 10 1016 S0140 6736 20 30677 2 ISSN 0140 6736 PMC 7561721 PMID 32679112 a b Nations United Population United Nations Retrieved 1 May 2023 World s Population is Projected to Nearly Stop Growing by the end of the Century June 17 2019 Kaneda Toshiko Falk Marissa Patierno Kaitlyn March 27 2021 Understanding and Comparing Population Projections in Sub Saharan Africa Population Reference Bureau External links Edit World Population Prospects Website of the United Nations Population Division Archived from the original on 2017 07 11 Food Production and Population Growth Daniel Quinn Alan D Thornhill PhD Ecofuture Population and Sustainability Media Non fiction Probabilistic Population Projections 2nd Revision Website of the United Nations Population Division Archived from the original on 2013 10 04 Population Growth and the Food Supply Population Institute of Canada World population growth and trends 1950 2050 US Census Archived from the original on 2010 07 07 World population focus on youth Annual World Population Data Sheet Population Reference Bureau Feeding the Ten Billion Plants and Population Growth PGR Newsletter FAO Bioversity L T Evans 2000 Cambridge University Press ISBN 0 521 64685 5 Published in Issue No 125 page 39 to 40 5802 characters Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Population growth amp oldid 1154300397, 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