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Toba catastrophe theory

May 20, 2023

The Toba eruption, (sometimes called the Toba supereruption or the Youngest Toba eruption) was a supervolcano eruption that occurred around 74,000 years ago[1] at the site of present-day Lake Toba in Sumatra, Indonesia. It is one of the Earth's largest known explosive eruptions. The Toba catastrophe theory holds that this event caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1,000-year-long cooling episode, leading to a genetic bottleneck in humans.[2][3]

Toba eruption theory
Artist's impression of the eruption from about 42 km (26 mi) above northern Sumatra
VolcanoToba Caldera Complex
Datec. 74,000 years BP
End time9-14 days
TypeUltra-Plinian
LocationSumatra, Indonesia
2°41′04″N 98°52′32″E / 2.6845°N 98.8756°E / 2.6845; 98.8756Coordinates: 2°41′04″N 98°52′32″E / 2.6845°N 98.8756°E / 2.6845; 98.8756
VEI8
ImpactSecond-most recent super-eruption; impact disputed
Deaths(Potentially) Almost all of humanity, leaving around 3,000 - 10,000 humans left on the planet
Lake Toba is the resulting crater lake

A number of genetic studies revealed that 50,000 years ago human ancestor population greatly expanded from only a few thousand individuals.[4][5] Science journalist Ann Gibbons posited that the low population size was caused by the Toba eruption.[6] Geologist Michael R. Rampino of New York University and volcanologist Stephen Self of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa supported her suggestion.[7] In 1998, the bottleneck theory was further developed by anthropologist Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.[2] However, some physical evidence disputes the links with millennium-long cold event and genetic bottleneck, and some consider the theory disproven.[8][9][10][11][12]

Supervolcanic eruption

See also: List of large volcanic eruptions

The Toba eruption occurred at the present location of Lake Toba in Indonesia and was dated to 73,880 ± 320 years ago through high-precision potassium argon dating.[13] This eruption was the last and largest of four eruptions of the Toba Caldera Complex during the Quaternary period, and is also recognized from its diagnostic horizon of ashfall, the Toba tuff.[14] It had an estimated Volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 8 (the highest rating on the scale); it made a sizable contribution to the 100 km × 35 km (62 mi × 22 mi) caldera complex.[15]

Based on known distribution of ash fall and pyroclastic flows, eruptive volume was estimated to be at least 2,800 km3 (670 cu mi) dense-rock equivalent (DRE), of which 800 km3 (190 cu mi) was deposited as ash fall.[16] Computational ash dispersal models suggested possibly as much as 5,300 km3 (1,300 cu mi) DRE was erupted.[17] An even larger volume of 6,000 km3 (1,400 cu mi) DRE has been suggested based on lost and eroded ash from pyroclastic flows.[18] The Toba eruption was the largest explosive volcanic eruption known in the Quaternary period.[19]

The eruption was of exceptional intensity and was completed within only 9 to 14 days.[19] Toba's erupted mass deposited an ash layer of about 15 centimetres (6 in) thick over the Indian subcontinent. A blanket of volcanic ash was also deposited over the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the South China Sea.[20] Glass shards from this eruption have also been discovered in East Africa.[21]

Climatic effects

By analyzing climate proxies and simulating climate forcing, researchers can gain insights into the immediate climatic effects of the Toba eruption. However, there are limitations to both approaches. In sedimentary records where the Toba tuff does not serve as a marker horizon, it cannot pinpoint the exact section that records the environmental conditions immediately following the eruption. Meanwhile, in sedimentary records that do have the Toba tuff as a marker horizon, the sedimentation rate may be too low to capture the short-term climatic effects of the eruption.[22][23] On the other hand, results of climate models entirely depend on the volatile budget of erupted magma, hence varies accordingly to the assumed volatile budget.

Climate proxy

Toba tephra layer in marine sediments coincides δ18O marine isotope stage 5a to 4 boundary, marking a climatic transition from warm to cold caused by change in ocean circulation and drop in atmospheric CO2 concentration, also known as Dansgaard-Oeschger event. Geologist Michael R. Rampino and volcanologist Stephen Self hypothesized that Toba eruption accelerated this shift.[24][25] Testing this hypothesis required higher resolution sedimentary records.

Two marine sediment cores Toba marker horizon retrieved from the Northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea either showed no pronounced cooling or a 0.8–1.0 °C (1.4–1.8 °F) cooling in the centuries following eruption.[26][27] The core resolution was insufficient to ascertain that the cooling was caused by Toba eruption since the two events could be decades or centuries apart in the core.[22] However, a severe cooling of only a few years is not expected to appear in these sediment records of centennial resolution.[27] Nonetheless, the marine sedimentary records support that Toba had only a minor impact on the time scales longer than a century.[27][22]

In Greenland ice cores, a large sulfate spike that appeared between Dansgaard–Oeschger event 19 and 20 was possibly related to Toba eruption. The δ18O values of the ice cores indicate a 1,000-year cooling event immediately following the sulfate signal.[28] However, high-resolution δ18O excluded the possibility of a more-than-a-century-long cooling impact of the eruption and ruled out that Toba triggered the cooling as it was already underway.[29][30]

Insufficient resolution in marine sediments bearing the Toba tuff has hindered the assessment of any short-term effects that may have lasted for less than a century.[31]

In 2013, a microscopic layer of Toba ash was reported in sediments of Lake Malawi. Together with the high sedimentation rate of the lake and Toba marker horizon, several team have reconstructed the local environment after Toba eruption at subdecadal resolution of ~6–9 years. The sediments in core display no clear evidence of cooling and no unusual deviations in concentrations of climate-sensitive ecological indicators. These results imply that the duration of the Toba cooling must have been either shorter than the sampling resolution of ~6–9 years or too small in magnitude in East Africa.[9][31][32][33]

Climate model

The mass of sulfurous gases emitted during Toba eruption is a crucial parameter when modeling its climatic effects.

Assuming an emission of 1.7 billion tonnes (1.9 billion short tons) of sulphur dioxide, which is 100 times the 1991 Pinatubo sulphur, the modeled volcanic winter has maximum global mean cooling of −3.5 °C (−6.3 °F) and gradually returns within the range of natural variability 5 years after the eruption. An initiation of 1,000-year cold period or ice age is not supported by the model.[34][35]

In a 2021 study, two other emission scenarios, 0.2 billion tonnes (0.22 billion short tons) and 2 billion tonnes (2.2 billion short tons) of sulphur dioxide which are 10 and 100 times of Pinatubo respectively, are investigated using state-of-art simulations provided by the Community Earth System Model. Maximum global mean cooling is −2.3 °C (−4.1 °F) for a 0.2 billion tonnes SO2 release and −4.1 °C (−7.4 °F) for a 2 billion tonnes SO2 release. Negative temperature anomalies return to less than −1 °C (−1.8 °F) within 3 and 6 years for each emission scenario after the eruption.[36]

Petrological studies of Toba magma constrained that the mass of sulfuric acid aerosols from Toba eruption represents about 2–5 times the sulfuric acid aerosols generated during 1991 Pinatubo eruption.[37][38] The studies suggest that previous modelings of global temperature perturbations following Toba eruption were excessive.[37] Ice core records of atmospheric sulfur injection during the period during which the Toba eruption occurred contain three large injections that are 10–30 times the Pinatubo sulfur.[30]

Genetic bottleneck hypothesis

Genetic bottleneck in humans

The Toba eruption has been linked to a genetic bottleneck in human evolution about 70,000 years ago;[39][40] it is hypothesized that the eruption resulted in a severe reduction in the size of the total human population due to the effects of the eruption on the global climate.[41] According to the genetic bottleneck theory, between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago, human populations sharply decreased to 3,000–10,000 surviving individuals.[42][43] It is supported by some genetic evidence suggesting that today's humans are descended from a very small population of between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs that existed about 70,000 years ago.[44][45]

Proponents of the genetic bottleneck theory (including Robock) suggest that the Toba eruption resulted in a global ecological disaster, including destruction of vegetation along with severe drought in the tropical rainforest belt and in monsoonal regions. A 10-year volcanic winter triggered by the eruption could have largely destroyed the food sources of humans and caused a severe reduction in population sizes.[46] These environmental changes may have generated population bottlenecks in many species, including hominids;[47] this in turn may have accelerated differentiation from within the smaller human population. Therefore, the genetic differences among modern humans may reflect changes within the last 70,000 years, rather than gradual differentiation over hundreds of thousands of years.[48]

Other research has cast doubt on a link between the Toba Caldera Complex and a genetic bottleneck. For example, ancient stone tools at the Jurreru Valley in southern India were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers, suggesting that the dust clouds from the eruption did not wipe out this local population.[49][50][51] However, another site in India, the Middle Son Valley, exhibits evidence of a major population decline and it has been suggested that the abundant springs of the Jurreru Valley may have offered its inhabitants unique protection.[52] Additional archaeological evidence from southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local populations, leading the authors of the study to conclude, "many forms of life survived the supereruption, contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic bottlenecks".[53] However, some researchers have questioned the techniques utilized to date artifacts to the period subsequent to the Toba supervolcano.[54] The Toba Catastrophe also coincides with the disappearance of the Skhul and Qafzeh hominins.[55] Evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South Asia, and some researchers have suggested that the Toba eruption may have forced humans to adopt new adaptive strategies, which may have permitted them to replace Neanderthals and "other archaic human species".[56][57]

Additional caveats include difficulties in estimating the global and regional climatic impacts of the eruption and lack of conclusive evidence for the eruption preceding the bottleneck.[58] Furthermore, genetic analysis of Alu sequences across the entire human genome has shown that the effective human population size was less than 26,000 at 1.2 million years ago; possible explanations for the low population size of human ancestors may include repeated population bottlenecks or periodic replacement events from competing Homo subspecies.[59]

Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals

Some evidence points to genetic bottlenecks in other animals in the wake of the Toba eruption. The populations of the Eastern African chimpanzee,[60] Bornean orangutan,[61] central Indian macaque,[62] cheetah and tiger,[63] all recovered from very small populations around 70,000–55,000 years ago.

Migration after Toba

The exact geographic distribution of anatomically modern human populations at the time of the eruption is not known, and surviving populations may have lived in Africa and subsequently migrated to other parts of the world. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA have estimated that the major migration from Africa occurred 60,000–70,000 years ago,[64] consistent with dating of the Toba eruption to around 75,000 years ago.[citation needed]

See also

Citations and notes

  1. ^ "Surprisingly, Humanity Survived the Super-volcano 74,000 Years Ago". Haaretz.
  2. ^ a b Ambrose 1998.
  3. ^ Michael R. Rampino, Stanley H. Ambrose, 2000. "Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden: The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash", Volcanic Hazards and Disasters in Human Antiquity, Floyd W. McCoy, Grant Heiken
  4. ^ A R Rogers, H Harpending, Population growth makes waves in the distribution of pairwise genetic differences., Molecular Biology and Evolution, Volume 9, Issue 3, May 1992, Pages 552–569,
  5. ^ Alan R. Rogers, GENETIC EVIDENCE FOR A PLEISTOCENE POPULATION EXPLOSION, Evolution, Volume 49, Issue 4, 1 August 1995, Pages 608–615, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1558-5646.1995.tb02297.x
  6. ^ Gibbons 1993.
  7. ^ Rampino, Michael R.; Self, Stephen (1993-12-24). "Bottleneck in Human Evolution and the Toba Eruption". Science. 262 (5142): 1955. Bibcode:1993Sci...262.1955R. doi:10.1126/science.8266085. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 8266085.
  8. ^ "Toba super-volcano catastrophe idea 'dismissed'". BBC News. 30 April 2013. Retrieved 2017-01-08.
    • Choi, Charles Q. (2013-04-29). "Toba Supervolcano Not to Blame for Humanity's Near-Extinction". Livescience.com. Retrieved 2017-01-08.
  9. ^ a b Yost, Chad; et al. (March 2018). "Subdecadal phytolith and charcoal records from Lake Malawi, East Africa imply minimal effects on human evolution from the ∼74 ka Toba supereruption". Journal of Human Evolution. Elsevier. 116: 75–94. doi:10.1016/j.jhevol.2017.11.005. PMID 29477183.
  10. ^ Ge, Yong; Gao, Xing (2020-09-10). "Understanding the overestimated impact of the Toba volcanic super-eruption on global environments and ancient hominins". Quaternary International. Current Research on Prehistoric Central Asia. 559: 24–33. Bibcode:2020QuInt.559...24G. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2020.06.021. ISSN 1040-6182. S2CID 225418492.
  11. ^ Hawks, John (9 February 2018). "The so-called Toba bottleneck didn't happen". john hawks weblog.
  12. ^ Singh, Ajab; Srivastava, Ashok K. (2022-06-01). "Had Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT, ca. 75 ka) eruption really destroyed living media explicitly in entire Southeast Asia or just a theoretical debate? An extensive review of its catastrophic event". Journal of Asian Earth Sciences: X. 7: 100083. Bibcode:2022JAESX...700083S. doi:10.1016/j.jaesx.2022.100083. ISSN 2590-0560. S2CID 246416256.
  13. ^ Storey, Michael; Roberts, Richard G.; Saidin, Mokhtar (2012-11-13). "Astronomically calibrated 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (46): 18684–18688. Bibcode:2012PNAS..10918684S. doi:10.1073/pnas.1208178109. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 3503200. PMID 23112159.
  14. ^
  15. ^ Oppenheimer 2002, p. 1593.
  16. ^ Jones 2007, p. 174; Rose & Chesner 1987, p. 913.
  17. ^ Antonio Costa; Victoria C. Smith; Giovanni Macedonio; Naomi E. Matthews (2014). "The magnitude and impact of the Youngest Toba Tuff super-eruption". Frontiers in Earth Science. 2: 16. Bibcode:2014FrEaS...2...16C. doi:10.3389/feart.2014.00016.
  18. ^ Self, S.; Gouramanis, C.; Storey, M. (2019-12-01). "The Young Toba Tuff (73.9 ka) Magma Body - True Size and the most Extensive and Voluminous Ignimbrite Yet Known?". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. 2019: V51H–0141. Bibcode:2019AGUFM.V51H0141S.
  19. ^ a b Ninkovich, D.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Ledbetter, M. T. (1978-09-01). "The exceptional magnitude and intensity of the Toba eruption, sumatra: An example of the use of deep-sea tephra layers as a geological tool". Bulletin Volcanologique. 41 (3): 286–298. Bibcode:1978BVol...41..286N. doi:10.1007/BF02597228. ISSN 1432-0819. S2CID 128626019.
  20. ^ Jones 2007, p. 173
  21. ^ Lane, C. S.; Chorn, B. T.; Johnson, T. C. (2013). "Ash from the Toba supereruption in Lake Malawi shows no volcanic winter in East Africa at 75 ka". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (20): 8025–8029. Bibcode:2013PNAS..110.8025L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1301474110. PMC 3657767. PMID 23630269.
  22. ^ a b c Oppenheimer 2002.
  23. ^ Huang, Chi-Yue; Zhao, Meixun; Wang, Chia-Chun; Wei, Ganjian (2001-10-15). "Cooling of the South China Sea by the Toba Eruption and correlation with other climate proxies ∼71,000 years ago". Geophysical Research Letters. 28 (20): 3915–3918. Bibcode:2001GeoRL..28.3915H. doi:10.1029/2000GL006113. S2CID 128903263.
  24. ^ Rampino, Michael R.; Self, Stephen (1992-09-03). "Volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation following the Toba super-eruption". Nature. 359 (6390): 50–52. Bibcode:1992Natur.359...50R. doi:10.1038/359050a0. ISSN 1476-4687. S2CID 4322781.
  25. ^ Rampino, Michael R.; Self, Stephen (1993-11-01). "Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of ∼74,000 Years Ago". Quaternary Research. 40 (3): 269–280. Bibcode:1993QuRes..40..269R. doi:10.1006/qres.1993.1081. ISSN 0033-5894. S2CID 129546088.
  26. ^ Huang, Chi-Yue; Zhao, Meixun; Wang, Chia-Chun; Wei, Ganjian (2001-10-15). "Cooling of the South China Sea by the Toba Eruption and correlation with other climate proxies ∼71,000 years ago". Geophysical Research Letters. 28 (20): 3915–3918. Bibcode:2001GeoRL..28.3915H. doi:10.1029/2000GL006113. S2CID 128903263.
  27. ^ a b c Schulz, Hartmut; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Erlenkeuser, Helmut; Rad, Ulrich von; Rolf, Christian (2002). "The Toba Volcanic Event and Interstadial/Stadial Climates at the Marine Isotopic Stage 5 to 4 Transition in the Northern Indian Ocean". Quaternary Research. 57 (1): 22–31. Bibcode:2002QuRes..57...22S. doi:10.1006/qres.2001.2291. ISSN 0033-5894. S2CID 129838182.
  28. ^ Zielinski, G. A.; Mayewski, P. A.; Meeker, L. D.; Whitlow, S.; Twickler, M. S.; Taylor, K. (1996-04-15). "Potential atmospheric impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption ∼71,000 years ago". Geophysical Research Letters. 23 (8): 837–840. Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23..837Z. doi:10.1029/96GL00706.
  29. ^ Svensson, A.; Bigler, M.; Blunier, T.; Clausen, H. B.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Fischer, H.; Fujita, S.; Goto-Azuma, K.; Johnsen, S. J.; Kawamura, K.; Kipfstuhl, S.; Kohno, M.; Parrenin, F.; Popp, T.; Rasmussen, S. O. (2013-03-19). "Direct linking of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores at the Toba eruption (74 ka BP)". Climate of the Past. 9 (2): 749–766. Bibcode:2013CliPa...9..749S. doi:10.5194/cp-9-749-2013. ISSN 1814-9324. S2CID 17741316.
  30. ^ a b Crick, Laura; Burke, Andrea; Hutchison, William; Kohno, Mika; Moore, Kathryn A.; Savarino, Joel; Doyle, Emily A.; Mahony, Sue; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Rae, James W. B.; Steele, Robert C. J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J.; Wolff, Eric W. (2021-10-18). "New insights into the ∼ 74 ka Toba eruption from sulfur isotopes of polar ice cores". Climate of the Past. 17 (5): 2119–2137. Bibcode:2021CliPa..17.2119C. doi:10.5194/cp-17-2119-2021. ISSN 1814-9324. S2CID 239203480.
  31. ^ a b Lane, Christine S.; Chorn, Ben T.; Johnson, Thomas C. (2013-05-14). "Ash from the Toba supereruption in Lake Malawi shows no volcanic winter in East Africa at 75 ka". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (20): 8025–8029. Bibcode:2013PNAS..110.8025L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1301474110. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 3657767. PMID 23630269.
  32. ^ Jackson, Lily J.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Cohen, Andrew S.; Yost, Chad L. (2015-09-01). "High-resolution paleoecological records from Lake Malawi show no significant cooling associated with the Mount Toba supereruption at ca. 75 ka". Geology. 43 (9): 823–826. Bibcode:2015Geo....43..823J. doi:10.1130/G36917.1. ISSN 0091-7613.
  33. ^ Robock, Alan (2013-08-27). "The Latest on Volcanic Eruptions and Climate". Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 94 (35): 305–306. Bibcode:2013EOSTr..94..305R. doi:10.1002/2013EO350001.
  34. ^ Timmreck, Claudia; Graf, Hans-F.; Zanchettin, Davide; Hagemann, Stefan; Kleinen, Thomas; Krüger, Kirstin (2012-05-01). "Climate response to the Toba super-eruption: Regional changes". Quaternary International. 258: 30–44. Bibcode:2012QuInt.258...30T. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.10.008.
  35. ^ Timmreck, Claudia; Graf, Hans-F.; Lorenz, Stephan J.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Zanchettin, Davide; Matei, Daniela; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Crowley, Thomas J. (2010-12-22). "Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions: AEROSOL SIZE CONFINES VOLCANIC SIGNAL". Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (24): n/a. doi:10.1029/2010GL045464. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F70C-7. S2CID 12790660.
  36. ^ Black, Benjamin A.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Marsh, Daniel R.; Schmidt, Anja; Bardeen, Charles G. (2021-07-20). "Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 118 (29): e2013046118. Bibcode:2021PNAS..11813046B. doi:10.1073/pnas.2013046118. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 8307270. PMID 34230096.
  37. ^ a b Chesner, Craig A.; Luhr, James F. (2010-11-30). "A melt inclusion study of the Toba Tuffs, Sumatra, Indonesia". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 197 (1–4): 259–278. Bibcode:2010JVGR..197..259C. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.06.001.
  38. ^ Scaillet, Bruno; Clemente, Béatrice; Evans, Bernard W.; Pichavant, Michel (1998-10-10). "Redox control of sulfur degassing in silicic magmas". Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 103 (B10): 23937–23949. Bibcode:1998JGR...10323937S. doi:10.1029/98JB02301. S2CID 30681359.
  39. ^ Gibbons 1993, p. 27
  40. ^ Rampino & Self 1993a
  41. ^ Ambrose 1998, passim; Gibbons 1993, p. 27; McGuire 2007, pp. 127–128; Rampino & Ambrose 2000, pp. 78–80; Rampino & Self 1993b, pp. 1955.
  42. ^ Ambrose 1998; Rampino & Ambrose 2000, pp. 71, 80.
  43. ^ "Science & Nature – Horizon – Supervolcanoes". BBC.co.uk. Retrieved 2015-03-28.
  44. ^ "When humans faced extinction". BBC. 2003-06-09. Retrieved 2007-01-05.
  45. ^ M.R Rampino and S.Self, Nature 359, 50 (1992)
  46. ^ Robock & others 2009.
  47. ^ Rampino & Ambrose 2000, p. 80.
  48. ^ Ambrose 1998, pp. 623–651.
  49. ^ "Mount Toba Eruption – Ancient Humans Unscathed, Study Claims". Anthropology.net. 6 July 2007. Retrieved 2008-04-20.
  50. ^ Sanderson, Katherine (July 2007). "Super-eruption: no problem?". Nature: news070702–15. doi:10.1038/news070702-15. S2CID 177216526. from the original on December 7, 2008.
  51. ^ John Hawks (5 July 2007). "At last, the death of the Toba bottleneck". john hawks weblog.
  52. ^ Jones, Sacha. (2012). Local- and Regional-scale Impacts of the ~74 ka Toba Supervolcanic Eruption on Hominin Population and Habitats in India. Quaternary International 258: 100-118.
  53. ^ See also . Anthropology.net. 25 February 2010. Archived from the original on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 28 February 2010.
  54. ^ National Geographic- Did early humans in India survive a supervolcano?
  55. ^ Shea, John. (2008). Transitions or Turnovers? Climatically-forced Extinctions of Homo sapiens and Neanderthals in the East Mediterranean Levant. Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 2253-2270.
  56. ^ "Supervolcano Eruption In Sumatra Deforested India 73,000 Years ago". ScienceDaily. 24 November 2009.
  57. ^ Williams & others 2009.
  58. ^ Oppenheimer 2002, pp. 1605, 1606.
  59. ^ If these results are accurate, then, even before the emergence of Homo sapiens in Africa, Homo erectus population was unusually small when the species was spreading around the world. See Huff & others 2010, p.6; Gibbons 2010.
  60. ^ Goldberg 1996
  61. ^ Steiper 2006
  62. ^ Hernandez & others 2007
  63. ^ Luo & others 2004
  64. ^ "New 'Molecular Clock' Aids Dating Of Human Migration History". ScienceDaily. 22 June 2009. Retrieved 2009-06-30.

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Further reading

External links

  • Population Bottlenecks and Volcanic Winter
  • . Archived from the original on April 22, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2006.
  • "The proper study of mankind" – Article in The Economist
  • Homepage of Professor Stanley H. Ambrose, including bibliographic information on the two papers he has published on the Toba catastrophe theory
  • "Ancient 'Volcanic Winter' Tied To Rapid Genetic Divergence in Humans", ScienceDaily (Sep. 8, 1998) – Article based on news release regarding Ambrose's paper
  • Mount Toba: Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans by Professor Stanley H. Ambrose, Department of Anthropology, University Of Illinois, Urbana, USA; Extract from "Journal of Human Evolution" [1998] 34, 623–651
  • Journey of Mankind by The Bradshaw Foundation – includes discussion on Toba eruption, DNA and human migrations
  • Geography Predicts Human Genetic Diversity ScienceDaily (Mar. 17, 2005) – By analyzing the relationship between the geographic location of current human populations in relation to East Africa and the genetic variability within these populations, researchers have found new evidence for an African origin of modern humans.
  • Out of Africa – Bacteria, As Well: Homo Sapiens And H. Pylori Jointly Spread Across The Globe ScienceDaily (Feb. 16, 2007) – When man made his way out of Africa some 60,000 years ago to populate the world, he was not alone: He was accompanied by the bacterium Helicobacter pylori...; illus. migration map.
  • Magma 'Pancakes' May Have Fueled Toba Supervolcano
  • Youtube video "Stone Age Apocalypse"

May 20, 2023
toba, catastrophe, theory, toba, eruption, sometimes, called, toba, supereruption, youngest, toba, eruption, supervolcano, eruption, that, occurred, around, years, site, present, lake, toba, sumatra, indonesia, earth, largest, known, explosive, eruptions, hold. The Toba eruption sometimes called the Toba supereruption or the Youngest Toba eruption was a supervolcano eruption that occurred around 74 000 years ago 1 at the site of present day Lake Toba in Sumatra Indonesia It is one of the Earth s largest known explosive eruptions The Toba catastrophe theory holds that this event caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1 000 year long cooling episode leading to a genetic bottleneck in humans 2 3 Toba eruption theoryArtist s impression of the eruption from about 42 km 26 mi above northern SumatraVolcanoToba Caldera ComplexDatec 74 000 years BPEnd time9 14 daysTypeUltra PlinianLocationSumatra Indonesia2 41 04 N 98 52 32 E 2 6845 N 98 8756 E 2 6845 98 8756 Coordinates 2 41 04 N 98 52 32 E 2 6845 N 98 8756 E 2 6845 98 8756VEI8ImpactSecond most recent super eruption impact disputedDeaths Potentially Almost all of humanity leaving around 3 000 10 000 humans left on the planetLake Toba is the resulting crater lakeA number of genetic studies revealed that 50 000 years ago human ancestor population greatly expanded from only a few thousand individuals 4 5 Science journalist Ann Gibbons posited that the low population size was caused by the Toba eruption 6 Geologist Michael R Rampino of New York University and volcanologist Stephen Self of the University of Hawaiʻi at Manoa supported her suggestion 7 In 1998 the bottleneck theory was further developed by anthropologist Stanley H Ambrose of the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign 2 However some physical evidence disputes the links with millennium long cold event and genetic bottleneck and some consider the theory disproven 8 9 10 11 12 Contents 1 Supervolcanic eruption 2 Climatic effects 2 1 Climate proxy 2 2 Climate model 3 Genetic bottleneck hypothesis 3 1 Genetic bottleneck in humans 3 2 Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals 4 Migration after Toba 5 See also 6 Citations and notes 7 References 8 Further reading 9 External linksSupervolcanic eruption EditSee also List of large volcanic eruptions The Toba eruption occurred at the present location of Lake Toba in Indonesia and was dated to 73 880 320 years ago through high precision potassium argon dating 13 This eruption was the last and largest of four eruptions of the Toba Caldera Complex during the Quaternary period and is also recognized from its diagnostic horizon of ashfall the Toba tuff 14 It had an estimated Volcanic explosivity index VEI of 8 the highest rating on the scale it made a sizable contribution to the 100 km 35 km 62 mi 22 mi caldera complex 15 Based on known distribution of ash fall and pyroclastic flows eruptive volume was estimated to be at least 2 800 km3 670 cu mi dense rock equivalent DRE of which 800 km3 190 cu mi was deposited as ash fall 16 Computational ash dispersal models suggested possibly as much as 5 300 km3 1 300 cu mi DRE was erupted 17 An even larger volume of 6 000 km3 1 400 cu mi DRE has been suggested based on lost and eroded ash from pyroclastic flows 18 The Toba eruption was the largest explosive volcanic eruption known in the Quaternary period 19 The eruption was of exceptional intensity and was completed within only 9 to 14 days 19 Toba s erupted mass deposited an ash layer of about 15 centimetres 6 in thick over the Indian subcontinent A blanket of volcanic ash was also deposited over the Indian Ocean the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea 20 Glass shards from this eruption have also been discovered in East Africa 21 Climatic effects EditBy analyzing climate proxies and simulating climate forcing researchers can gain insights into the immediate climatic effects of the Toba eruption However there are limitations to both approaches In sedimentary records where the Toba tuff does not serve as a marker horizon it cannot pinpoint the exact section that records the environmental conditions immediately following the eruption Meanwhile in sedimentary records that do have the Toba tuff as a marker horizon the sedimentation rate may be too low to capture the short term climatic effects of the eruption 22 23 On the other hand results of climate models entirely depend on the volatile budget of erupted magma hence varies accordingly to the assumed volatile budget Climate proxy Edit Toba tephra layer in marine sediments coincides d18O marine isotope stage 5a to 4 boundary marking a climatic transition from warm to cold caused by change in ocean circulation and drop in atmospheric CO2 concentration also known as Dansgaard Oeschger event Geologist Michael R Rampino and volcanologist Stephen Self hypothesized that Toba eruption accelerated this shift 24 25 Testing this hypothesis required higher resolution sedimentary records Two marine sediment cores Toba marker horizon retrieved from the Northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea either showed no pronounced cooling or a 0 8 1 0 C 1 4 1 8 F cooling in the centuries following eruption 26 27 The core resolution was insufficient to ascertain that the cooling was caused by Toba eruption since the two events could be decades or centuries apart in the core 22 However a severe cooling of only a few years is not expected to appear in these sediment records of centennial resolution 27 Nonetheless the marine sedimentary records support that Toba had only a minor impact on the time scales longer than a century 27 22 In Greenland ice cores a large sulfate spike that appeared between Dansgaard Oeschger event 19 and 20 was possibly related to Toba eruption The d18O values of the ice cores indicate a 1 000 year cooling event immediately following the sulfate signal 28 However high resolution d18O excluded the possibility of a more than a century long cooling impact of the eruption and ruled out that Toba triggered the cooling as it was already underway 29 30 Insufficient resolution in marine sediments bearing the Toba tuff has hindered the assessment of any short term effects that may have lasted for less than a century 31 In 2013 a microscopic layer of Toba ash was reported in sediments of Lake Malawi Together with the high sedimentation rate of the lake and Toba marker horizon several team have reconstructed the local environment after Toba eruption at subdecadal resolution of 6 9 years The sediments in core display no clear evidence of cooling and no unusual deviations in concentrations of climate sensitive ecological indicators These results imply that the duration of the Toba cooling must have been either shorter than the sampling resolution of 6 9 years or too small in magnitude in East Africa 9 31 32 33 Climate model Edit The mass of sulfurous gases emitted during Toba eruption is a crucial parameter when modeling its climatic effects Assuming an emission of 1 7 billion tonnes 1 9 billion short tons of sulphur dioxide which is 100 times the 1991 Pinatubo sulphur the modeled volcanic winter has maximum global mean cooling of 3 5 C 6 3 F and gradually returns within the range of natural variability 5 years after the eruption An initiation of 1 000 year cold period or ice age is not supported by the model 34 35 In a 2021 study two other emission scenarios 0 2 billion tonnes 0 22 billion short tons and 2 billion tonnes 2 2 billion short tons of sulphur dioxide which are 10 and 100 times of Pinatubo respectively are investigated using state of art simulations provided by the Community Earth System Model Maximum global mean cooling is 2 3 C 4 1 F for a 0 2 billion tonnes SO2 release and 4 1 C 7 4 F for a 2 billion tonnes SO2 release Negative temperature anomalies return to less than 1 C 1 8 F within 3 and 6 years for each emission scenario after the eruption 36 Petrological studies of Toba magma constrained that the mass of sulfuric acid aerosols from Toba eruption represents about 2 5 times the sulfuric acid aerosols generated during 1991 Pinatubo eruption 37 38 The studies suggest that previous modelings of global temperature perturbations following Toba eruption were excessive 37 Ice core records of atmospheric sulfur injection during the period during which the Toba eruption occurred contain three large injections that are 10 30 times the Pinatubo sulfur 30 Genetic bottleneck hypothesis EditGenetic bottleneck in humans Edit The Toba eruption has been linked to a genetic bottleneck in human evolution about 70 000 years ago 39 40 it is hypothesized that the eruption resulted in a severe reduction in the size of the total human population due to the effects of the eruption on the global climate 41 According to the genetic bottleneck theory between 50 000 and 100 000 years ago human populations sharply decreased to 3 000 10 000 surviving individuals 42 43 It is supported by some genetic evidence suggesting that today s humans are descended from a very small population of between 1 000 and 10 000 breeding pairs that existed about 70 000 years ago 44 45 Proponents of the genetic bottleneck theory including Robock suggest that the Toba eruption resulted in a global ecological disaster including destruction of vegetation along with severe drought in the tropical rainforest belt and in monsoonal regions A 10 year volcanic winter triggered by the eruption could have largely destroyed the food sources of humans and caused a severe reduction in population sizes 46 These environmental changes may have generated population bottlenecks in many species including hominids 47 this in turn may have accelerated differentiation from within the smaller human population Therefore the genetic differences among modern humans may reflect changes within the last 70 000 years rather than gradual differentiation over hundreds of thousands of years 48 Other research has cast doubt on a link between the Toba Caldera Complex and a genetic bottleneck For example ancient stone tools at the Jurreru Valley in southern India were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers suggesting that the dust clouds from the eruption did not wipe out this local population 49 50 51 However another site in India the Middle Son Valley exhibits evidence of a major population decline and it has been suggested that the abundant springs of the Jurreru Valley may have offered its inhabitants unique protection 52 Additional archaeological evidence from southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local populations leading the authors of the study to conclude many forms of life survived the supereruption contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic bottlenecks 53 However some researchers have questioned the techniques utilized to date artifacts to the period subsequent to the Toba supervolcano 54 The Toba Catastrophe also coincides with the disappearance of the Skhul and Qafzeh hominins 55 Evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South Asia and some researchers have suggested that the Toba eruption may have forced humans to adopt new adaptive strategies which may have permitted them to replace Neanderthals and other archaic human species 56 57 Additional caveats include difficulties in estimating the global and regional climatic impacts of the eruption and lack of conclusive evidence for the eruption preceding the bottleneck 58 Furthermore genetic analysis of Alu sequences across the entire human genome has shown that the effective human population size was less than 26 000 at 1 2 million years ago possible explanations for the low population size of human ancestors may include repeated population bottlenecks or periodic replacement events from competing Homo subspecies 59 Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals Edit Some evidence points to genetic bottlenecks in other animals in the wake of the Toba eruption The populations of the Eastern African chimpanzee 60 Bornean orangutan 61 central Indian macaque 62 cheetah and tiger 63 all recovered from very small populations around 70 000 55 000 years ago Migration after Toba EditThe exact geographic distribution of anatomically modern human populations at the time of the eruption is not known and surviving populations may have lived in Africa and subsequently migrated to other parts of the world Analyses of mitochondrial DNA have estimated that the major migration from Africa occurred 60 000 70 000 years ago 64 consistent with dating of the Toba eruption to around 75 000 years ago citation needed See also Edit Volcanoes portal Evolutionary biology portalEarly human migrations Spread of humans from Africa through the world Most recent common ancestor Most recent individual from which all organisms in a group are directly descended Quaternary extinction event Extinction event occurring during the late Quaternary period Recent African origin of modern humans Out of Africa theory of the early migration of humans Timeline of volcanism on Earth Wallace Line Line separating Asian and Australian faunaCitations and notes Edit Surprisingly Humanity Survived the Super volcano 74 000 Years Ago Haaretz a b Ambrose 1998 Michael R Rampino Stanley H Ambrose 2000 Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash Volcanic Hazards and Disasters in Human Antiquity Floyd W McCoy Grant Heiken A R Rogers H Harpending Population growth makes waves in the distribution of pairwise genetic differences Molecular Biology and Evolution Volume 9 Issue 3 May 1992 Pages 552 569 Alan R Rogers GENETIC EVIDENCE FOR A PLEISTOCENE POPULATION EXPLOSION Evolution Volume 49 Issue 4 1 August 1995 Pages 608 615 https doi org 10 1111 j 1558 5646 1995 tb02297 x Gibbons 1993 Rampino Michael R Self Stephen 1993 12 24 Bottleneck in Human Evolution and the Toba Eruption Science 262 5142 1955 Bibcode 1993Sci 262 1955R doi 10 1126 science 8266085 ISSN 0036 8075 PMID 8266085 Toba super volcano catastrophe idea dismissed BBC News 30 April 2013 Retrieved 2017 01 08 Choi Charles 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History of Human Populations in South Asia Springer pp 173 200 ISBN 978 1 4020 5561 4 Luo S J Kim J H Johnson W E Van der Walt J Martenson J et al 2004 Phylogeography and genetic ancestry of tigers Panthera tigris PLOS Biology 2 12 2275 2293 doi 10 1371 journal pbio 0020442 PMC 534810 PMID 15583716 Luo Shu Jin Zhang Yue Johnson Warren E Miao Lin Martelli Paolo et al 2014 Sympatric Asian felid phylogeography reveals a major Indochinese Sundaic divergence Molecular Ecology 23 8 2072 2092 doi 10 1111 mec 12716 ISSN 0962 1083 PMID 24629132 S2CID 40030155 McGuire W J 2007 The GGE Threat Facing and Coping with Global Geophysical Events In Bobrowsky Peter T Rickman Hans eds Comet Asteroid Impacts and Human Society an Interdisciplinary Approach Springer pp 123 141 Bibcode 2007caih book B ISBN 978 3 540 32709 7 Ninkovich D N J Shackleton A A Abdel Monem J D Obradovich G Izett 7 December 1978 K Ar age of the late Pleistocene eruption of Toba north Sumatra Nature 276 5688 574 577 Bibcode 1978Natur 276 574N doi 10 1038 276574a0 S2CID 4364788 Oppenheimer Clive August 2002 Limited global change due to largest known Quaternary eruption Toba 74 kyr BP Quaternary Science Reviews 21 14 15 1593 1609 Bibcode 2002QSRv 21 1593O doi 10 1016 S0277 3791 01 00154 8 Petraglia M Korisettar R Boivin N Clarkson C Ditchfield P et al 6 July 2007 Middle Paleolithic Assemblages from the Indian Subcontinent Before and After the Toba Super eruption PDF Science 317 5834 114 116 Bibcode 2007Sci 317 114P doi 10 1126 science 1141564 PMID 17615356 S2CID 20380351 Rampino M R Ambrose S H 2000 Volcanic winter in the Garden of Eden The Toba supereruption and the late Pleistocene human population crash In McCoy F W Heiken G eds Volcanic Hazards and Disasters in Human Antiquity Boulder Colorado Geological Society of America Special Paper 345 doi 10 1130 0 8137 2345 0 71 ISBN 0 8137 2345 0 Rampino Michael R Self Stephen 2 September 1992 Volcanic Winter and Accelerated Glaciation following the Toba Super eruption PDF Nature 359 6390 50 52 Bibcode 1992Natur 359 50R doi 10 1038 359050a0 S2CID 4322781 Archived from the original PDF on 20 October 2011 Rampino Michael R Self Stephen 1993 Climate Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of 74 000 Years ago PDF Quaternary Research 40 3 269 280 Bibcode 1993QuRes 40 269R doi 10 1006 qres 1993 1081 S2CID 129546088 Archived from the original PDF on 2011 10 21 Rampino Michael R Self Stephen 24 December 1993 Bottleneck in the Human Evolution and the Toba Eruption Science 262 5142 1955 Bibcode 1993Sci 262 1955R doi 10 1126 science 8266085 PMID 8266085 Robock A Ammann C M Oman L Shindell D Levis S Stenchikov G 2009 Did the Toba Volcanic Eruption of 74k BP Produce Widespread Glaciation Journal of Geophysical Research 114 D10 D10107 Bibcode 2009JGRD 11410107R doi 10 1029 2008JD011652 Rose W I Chesner C A October 1987 Dispersal of Ash in the Great Toba Eruption 75 ka PDF Geology 15 10 913 917 Bibcode 1987Geo 15 913R doi 10 1130 0091 7613 1987 15 lt 913 DOAITG gt 2 0 CO 2 Self Stephen Blake Stephen February 2008 Consequences of Explosive Supereruptions Elements 4 1 41 46 doi 10 2113 GSELEMENTS 4 1 41 Steiper M E 2006 Population history biogeography and taxonomy of orangutans Genus Pongo based on a population genetic meta analysis of multiple loci Journal of Human Evolution 50 5 509 522 doi 10 1016 j jhevol 2005 12 005 PMID 16472840 Thalman O Fisher A Lankester F Paabo S Vigilant L 2007 The complex history of gorillas insights from genomic data Molecular Biology and Evolution 24 146 158 doi 10 1093 molbev msl160 PMID 17065595 Williams Martin A J Stanley H Ambrose Sander van der Kaars Carsten Ruehlemann Umesh Chattopadhyaya Jagannath Pal Parth R Chauhan 30 December 2009 Environmental impact of the 73 ka Toba super eruption in South Asia Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology Elsevier 284 3 4 295 314 Bibcode 2009PPP 284 295W doi 10 1016 j palaeo 2009 10 009 Zielinski G A Mayewski P A Meeker L D Whitlow S Twickler M S Taylor K 1996 Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega Eruption 71 000 years ago PDF Geophysical Research Letters 23 8 837 840 Bibcode 1996GeoRL 23 837Z doi 10 1029 96GL00706 Archived from the original PDF on July 18 2011 Further reading EditProthero Donald R 2018 When Humans Nearly Vanished The Catastrophic Explosion of the Toba Volcano Washington Smithsonian Books ISBN 978 1588346353 OCLC 1020313538 External links EditPopulation Bottlenecks and Volcanic Winter Toba Volcano by George Weber Archived from the original on April 22 2011 Retrieved June 1 2006 The proper study of mankind Article in The Economist Homepage of Professor Stanley H Ambrose including bibliographic information on the two papers he has published on the Toba catastrophe theory Ancient Volcanic Winter Tied To Rapid Genetic Divergence in Humans ScienceDaily Sep 8 1998 Article based on news release regarding Ambrose s paper Mount Toba Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks volcanic winter and differentiation of modern humans by Professor Stanley H Ambrose Department of Anthropology University Of Illinois Urbana USA Extract from Journal of Human Evolution 1998 34 623 651 Journey of Mankind by The Bradshaw Foundation includes discussion on Toba eruption DNA and human migrations Geography Predicts Human Genetic Diversity ScienceDaily Mar 17 2005 By analyzing the relationship between the geographic location of current human populations in relation to East Africa and the genetic variability within these populations researchers have found new evidence for an African origin of modern humans Out of Africa Bacteria As Well Homo Sapiens And H Pylori Jointly Spread Across The Globe ScienceDaily Feb 16 2007 When man made his way out of Africa some 60 000 years ago to populate the world he was not alone He was accompanied by the bacterium Helicobacter pylori illus migration map Magma Pancakes May Have Fueled Toba Supervolcano Youtube video Stone Age Apocalypse Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Toba catastrophe theory amp oldid 1154792274, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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