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Demography

Demography (from Ancient Greek δῆμος (dêmos) 'people, society', and -γραφία (-graphía) 'writing, drawing, description')[1] is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., race, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.[2]

The Demography of the World Population from 1950 to 2100. Data source: United Nations — World Population Prospects 2017

Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion, and ethnicity. Educational institutions[3] usually treat demography as a field of sociology, though there are a number of independent demography departments.[4] These methods have primarily been developed to study human populations, but are extended to a variety of areas where researchers want to know how populations of social actors can change across time through processes of birth, death, and migration. In the context of human biological populations, demographic analysis uses administrative records to develop an independent estimate of the population.[5] Demographic analysis estimates are often considered a reliable standard for judging the accuracy of the census information gathered at any time. In the labor force, demographic analysis is used to estimate sizes and flows of populations of workers; in population ecology the focus is on the birth, death, migration and immigration of individuals in a population of living organisms, alternatively, in social human sciences could involve movement of firms and institutional forms. Demographic analysis is used in a wide variety of contexts. For example, it is often used in business plans, to describe the population connected to the geographic location of the business.[6] Demographic analysis is usually abbreviated as DA.[7] For the 2010 U.S. Census, The U.S. Census Bureau has expanded its DA categories.[7] Also as part of the 2010 U.S. Census, DA now also includes comparative analysis between independent housing estimates, and census address lists at a different key time points.[7]

Patient demographics form the core of the data for any medical institution, such as patient and emergency contact information and patient medical record data. They allow for the identification of a patient and his categorization into categories for the purpose of statistical analysis. Patient demographics include: date of birth, gender, date of death, postal code, ethnicity, blood type, emergency contact information, family doctor, insurance provider data, allergies, major diagnoses and major medical history.[8]

Formal demography limits its object of study to the measurement of population processes, while the broader field of social demography or population studies also analyses the relationships between economic, social, institutional, cultural, and biological processes influencing a population.[9]

History edit

Demographic thoughts traced back to antiquity, and were present in many civilisations and cultures, like Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, China and India.[10] Made up of the prefix demo- and the suffix -graphy, the term demography refers to the overall study of population.[citation needed]

In ancient Greece, this can be found in the writings of Herodotus, Thucydides, Hippocrates, Epicurus, Protagoras, Polus, Plato and Aristotle.[10] In Rome, writers and philosophers like Cicero, Seneca, Pliny the Elder, Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Cato, and Columella also expressed important ideas on this ground.[10]

In the Middle Ages, Christian thinkers devoted much time in refuting the Classical ideas on demography. Important contributors to the field were William of Conches,[11] Bartholomew of Lucca,[11] William of Auvergne,[11] William of Pagula,[11] and Muslim sociologists like Ibn Khaldun.[12]

One of the earliest demographic studies in the modern period was Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) by John Graunt, which contains a primitive form of life table. Among the study's findings were that one-third of the children in London died before their sixteenth birthday. Mathematicians, such as Edmond Halley, developed the life table as the basis for life insurance mathematics. Richard Price was credited with the first textbook on life contingencies published in 1771,[13] followed later by Augustus De Morgan, On the Application of Probabilities to Life Contingencies (1838).[14]

In 1755, Benjamin Franklin published his essay Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc., projecting exponential growth in British colonies.[15] His work influenced Thomas Robert Malthus,[16] who, writing at the end of the 18th century, feared that, if unchecked, population growth would tend to outstrip growth in food production, leading to ever-increasing famine and poverty (see Malthusian catastrophe). Malthus is seen as the intellectual father of ideas of overpopulation and the limits to growth. Later, more sophisticated and realistic models were presented by Benjamin Gompertz and Verhulst.

In 1855, a Belgian scholar Achille Guillard defined demography as the natural and social history of human species or the mathematical knowledge of populations, of their general changes, and of their physical, civil, intellectual, and moral condition.[17]

The period 1860–1910 can be characterized as a period of transition where in demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest. This period included a panoply of international 'great demographers' like Adolphe Quetelet (1796–1874), William Farr (1807–1883), Louis-Adolphe Bertillon (1821–1883) and his son Jacques (1851–1922), Joseph Körösi (1844–1906), Anders Nicolas Kaier (1838–1919), Richard Böckh (1824–1907), Émile Durkheim (1858–1917), Wilhelm Lexis (1837–1914), and Luigi Bodio (1840–1920) contributed to the development of demography and to the toolkit of methods and techniques of demographic analysis.[18]

Methods edit

Demography is the statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition, and spatial distribution of human populations and how these features change over time. Data are obtained from a census of the population and from registries: records of events like birth, deaths, migrations, marriages, divorces, diseases, and employment. To do this, there needs to be an understanding of how they are calculated and the questions they answer which are included in these four concepts: population change, standardization of population numbers, the demographic bookkeeping equation, and population composition.[citation needed]

There are two types of data collection—direct and indirect—with several methods of each type.

Direct methods edit

Direct data comes from vital statistics registries that track all births and deaths as well as certain changes in legal status such as marriage, divorce, and migration (registration of place of residence). In developed countries with good registration systems (such as the United States and much of Europe), registry statistics are the best method for estimating the number of births and deaths.

A census is the other common direct method of collecting demographic data. A census is usually conducted by a national government and attempts to enumerate every person in a country. In contrast to vital statistics data, which are typically collected continuously and summarized on an annual basis, censuses typically occur only every 10 years or so, and thus are not usually the best source of data on births and deaths. Analyses are conducted after a census to estimate how much over or undercounting took place. These compare the sex ratios from the census data to those estimated from natural values and mortality data.

Censuses do more than just count people. They typically collect information about families or households in addition to individual characteristics such as age, sex, marital status, literacy/education, employment status, and occupation, and geographical location. They may also collect data on migration (or place of birth or of previous residence), language, religion, nationality (or ethnicity or race), and citizenship. In countries in which the vital registration system may be incomplete, the censuses are also used as a direct source of information about fertility and mortality; for example, the censuses of the People's Republic of China gather information on births and deaths that occurred in the 18 months immediately preceding the census.

 
Map of countries by population
 
Rate of human population growth showing projections for later this century[19]

Indirect methods edit

Indirect methods of collecting data are required in countries and periods where full data are not available, such as is the case in much of the developing world, and most of historical demography. One of these techniques in contemporary demography is the sister method, where survey researchers ask women how many of their sisters have died or had children and at what age. With these surveys, researchers can then indirectly estimate birth or death rates for the entire population. Other indirect methods in contemporary demography include asking people about siblings, parents, and children. Other indirect methods are necessary in historical demography.[citation needed]

There are a variety of demographic methods for modelling population processes. They include models of mortality (including the life table, Gompertz models, hazards models, Cox proportional hazards models, multiple decrement life tables, Brass relational logits), fertility (Hermes model, Coale-Trussell models, parity progression ratios), marriage (Singulate Mean at Marriage, Page model), disability (Sullivan's method, multistate life tables), population projections (Lee-Carter model, the Leslie Matrix), and population momentum (Keyfitz).

The United Kingdom has a series of four national birth cohort studies, the first three spaced apart by 12 years: the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development, the 1958 National Child Development Study,[20] the 1970 British Cohort Study,[21] and the Millennium Cohort Study, begun much more recently in 2000. These have followed the lives of samples of people (typically beginning with around 17,000 in each study) for many years, and are still continuing. As the samples have been drawn in a nationally representative way, inferences can be drawn from these studies about the differences between four distinct generations of British people in terms of their health, education, attitudes, childbearing and employment patterns.[22]

Indirect standardization is used when a population is small enough that the number of events (births, deaths, etc.) are also small. In this case, methods must be used to produce a standardized mortality rate (SMR) or standardized incidence rate (SIR).[23][24]

Population change edit

Population change is analyzed by measuring the change between one population size to another. Global population continues to rise, which makes population change an essential component to demographics. This is calculated by taking one population size minus the population size in an earlier census. The best way of measuring population change is using the intercensal percentage change. The intercensal percentage change is the absolute change in population between the censuses divided by the population size in the earlier census. Next, multiply this a hundredfold to receive a percentage. When this statistic is achieved, the population growth between two or more nations that differ in size, can be accurately measured and examined.[25][26]

Standardization of population numbers edit

For there to be a significant comparison, numbers must be altered for the size of the population that is under study. For example, the fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of childbearing age to the total number of women in this age range. If these adjustments were not made, we would not know if a nation with a higher rate of births or deaths has a population with more women of childbearing age or more births per eligible woman.[citation needed]

Within the category of standardization, there are two major approaches: direct standardization and indirect standardization.[citation needed]

Common rates and ratios edit

  • The crude birth rate, the annual number of live births per 1,000 people.
  • The general fertility rate, the annual number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).
  • The age-specific fertility rates, the annual number of live births per 1,000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15–19, 20–24 etc.)
  • The crude death rate, the annual number of deaths per 1,000 people.
  • The infant mortality rate, the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1,000 live births.
  • The expectation of life (or life expectancy), the number of years that an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels.
  • The total fertility rate, the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life, if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates.
  • The replacement level fertility, the average number of children women must have in order to replace the population for the next generation. For example, the replacement level fertility in the US is 2.11.[27]
  • The gross reproduction rate, the number of daughters who would be born to a woman completing her reproductive life at current age-specific fertility rates.
  • The net reproduction ratio is the expected number of daughters, per newborn prospective mother, who may or may not survive to and through the ages of childbearing.
  • A stable population, one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such a long period of time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant, or equivalently, the population pyramid has an unchanging structure.[27]
  • A stationary population, one that is both stable and unchanging in size (the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero).[27]
  • Measures of centralisation are concerned with the extent to which an area's population is concentrated in its urban centres.[28][29]

A stable population does not necessarily remain fixed in size. It can be expanding or shrinking.[27]

The crude death rate as defined above and applied to a whole population can give a misleading impression. For example, the number of deaths per 1,000 people can be higher in developed nations than in less-developed countries, despite standards of health being better in developed countries. This is because developed countries have proportionally more older people, who are more likely to die in a given year, so that the overall mortality rate can be higher even if the mortality rate at any given age is lower. A more complete picture of mortality is given by a life table, which summarizes mortality separately at each age. A life table is necessary to give a good estimate of life expectancy.

Basic equation regarding development of a population edit

Suppose that a country (or other entity) contains Populationt persons at time t. What is the size of the population at time t + 1 ?

 

Natural increase from time t to t + 1:

 

Net migration from time t to t + 1:

 

These basic equations can also be applied to subpopulations. For example, the population size of ethnic groups or nationalities within a given society or country is subject to the same sources of change. When dealing with ethnic groups, however, "net migration" might have to be subdivided into physical migration and ethnic reidentification (assimilation). Individuals who change their ethnic self-labels or whose ethnic classification in government statistics changes over time may be thought of as migrating or moving from one population subcategory to another.[30]

More generally, while the basic demographic equation holds true by definition, in practice the recording and counting of events (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) and the enumeration of the total population size are subject to error. So allowance needs to be made for error in the underlying statistics when any accounting of population size or change is made.

The figure in this section shows the latest (2004) UN (United Nations) WHO projections of world population out to the year 2150 (red = high, orange = medium, green = low). The UN "medium" projection shows world population reaching an approximate equilibrium at 9 billion by 2075. Working independently, demographers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria expect world population to peak at 9 billion by 2070.[31] Throughout the 21st century, the average age of the population is likely to continue to rise.

Science of population edit

Populations can change through three processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Fertility involves the number of children that women have and is to be contrasted with fecundity (a woman's childbearing potential).[32] Mortality is the study of the causes, consequences, and measurement of processes affecting death to members of the population. Demographers most commonly study mortality using the life table, a statistical device that provides information about the mortality conditions (most notably the life expectancy) in the population.[33]

Migration refers to the movement of persons from a locality of origin to a destination place across some predefined, political boundary. Migration researchers do not designate movements 'migrations' unless they are somewhat permanent. Thus, demographers do not consider tourists and travellers to be migrating. While demographers who study migration typically do so through census data on place of residence, indirect sources of data including tax forms and labour force surveys are also important.[34]

Demography is today widely taught in many universities across the world, attracting students with initial training in social sciences, statistics or health studies. Being at the crossroads of several disciplines such as sociology, economics, epidemiology, geography, anthropology and history, demography offers tools to approach a large range of population issues by combining a more technical quantitative approach that represents the core of the discipline with many other methods borrowed from social or other sciences. Demographic research is conducted in universities, in research institutes, as well as in statistical departments and in several international agencies. Population institutions are part of the CICRED (International Committee for Coordination of Demographic Research) network while most individual scientists engaged in demographic research are members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population,[35] or a national association such as the Population Association of America in the United States,[36] or affiliates of the Federation of Canadian Demographers in Canada.[37]

Population composition edit

Population composition is the description of population defined by characteristics such as age, race, sex or marital status. These descriptions can be necessary for understanding the social dynamics from historical and comparative research. This data is often compared using a population pyramid.

Population composition is also a very important part of historical research. Information ranging back hundreds of years is not always worthwhile, because the numbers of people for which data are available may not provide the information that is important (such as population size). Lack of information on the original data-collection procedures may prevent accurate evaluation of data quality.

Demographic analysis in institutions and organizations edit

Labor market edit

The demographic analysis of labor markets can be used to show slow population growth, population aging, and the increased importance of immigration. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that in the next 100 years, the United States will face some dramatic demographic changes.[citation needed] The population is expected to grow more slowly and age more rapidly than ever before and the nation will become a nation of immigrants. This influx is projected to rise over the next century as new immigrants and their children will account for over half the U.S. population. These demographic shifts could ignite major adjustments in the economy, more specifically, in labor markets.[citation needed]

Turnover and in internal labor markets edit

People decide to exit organizations for many reasons, such as, better jobs, dissatisfaction, and concerns within the family. The causes of turnover can be split into two separate factors, one linked with the culture of the organization, and the other relating to all other factors. People who do not fully accept a culture might leave voluntarily. Or, some individuals might leave because they fail to fit in and fail to change within a particular organization.

Population ecology of organizations edit

A basic definition of population ecology is a study of the distribution and abundance of organisms. As it relates to organizations and demography, organizations go through various liabilities to their continued survival. Hospitals, like all other large and complex organizations are impacted in the environment they work. For example, a study was done on the closure of acute care hospitals in Florida between a particular time. The study examined effect size, age, and niche density of these particular hospitals. A population theory says that organizational outcomes are mostly determined by environmental factors. Among several factors of the theory, there are four that apply to the hospital closure example: size, age, density of niches in which organizations operate, and density of niches in which organizations are established.[citation needed]

Business organizations edit

Problems in which demographers may be called upon to assist business organizations are when determining the best prospective location in an area of a branch store or service outlet, predicting the demand for a new product, and to analyze certain dynamics of a company's workforce. Choosing a new location for a branch of a bank, choosing the area in which to start a new supermarket, consulting a bank loan officer that a particular location would be a beneficial site to start a car wash, and determining what shopping area would be best to buy and be redeveloped in metropolis area are types of problems in which demographers can be called upon.

Standardization is a useful demographic technique used in the analysis of a business. It can be used as an interpretive and analytic tool for the comparison of different markets.

Nonprofit organizations edit

These organizations have interests about the number and characteristics of their clients so they can maximize the sale of their products, their outlook on their influence, or the ends of their power, services, and beneficial works.

See also edit

Social surveys edit

Organizations edit

Scientific journals edit

References edit

  1. ^ "demography". Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary.
  2. ^ McFalls Jr, Joseph A. "Population: A Lively Introduction." Population Bulletin 46.2 (1991): n2. https://www.prb.org/resources/population-a-lively-introduction/
  3. ^ . demographicpartitions.org. Archived from the original on 14 August 2015. Retrieved 4 August 2015.
  4. ^ "UC Berkeley Demography department website". from the original on 1 September 2006. Retrieved 12 October 2006.
  5. ^ "Demographic Analysis" (PDF). U.S. Census Monitoring Board. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  6. ^ Jean Murray. . About.com Money. Archived from the original on 6 October 2011. Retrieved 26 March 2016.
  7. ^ a b c US Census Bureau Webdesign: SSD, Laura K Yax, Content: DSSD, Phil Gbur, POP, Jason Devine. "Coverage Measurement". from the original on 10 January 2016. Retrieved 26 March 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  8. ^ "What Are Patient Demographics?". 21 December 2011. from the original on 28 January 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  9. ^ Andrew Hinde Demographic Methods Ch. 1 ISBN 0-340-71892-7
  10. ^ a b c Srivastava, Sangya (December 2005). S.C.Srivastava,Studies in Demography, p.39-41. Anmol Publications Pvt. Limited. ISBN 9788126119929.
  11. ^ a b c d Peter Biller,The measure of multitude: Population in medieval thought[1].
  12. ^ See, e.g., Andrey Korotayev, Artemy Malkov, & Daria Khaltourina (2006). Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth 9 July 2019 at the Wayback Machine. Moscow: URSS, ISBN 5-484-00414-4.
  13. ^ "Our Yesterdays: the History of the Actuarial Profession in North America, 1809-1979," by E.J. (Jack) Moorhead, FSA, (1/23/10 – 2/21/04), published by the Society of Actuaries as part of the profession's centennial celebration in 1989.
  14. ^ The History of Insurance, Vol 3, Edited by David Jenkins and Takau Yoneyama (1 85196 527 0): 8 Volume Set: (2000) Availability: Japan: Kinokuniya).
  15. ^ von Valtier, William F. (June 2011). (PDF). Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. 155 (2): 158–188. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 March 2016. Retrieved 19 September 2018.
  16. ^ Zirkle, Conway (25 April 1941). "Natural Selection before the 'Origin of Species'". Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. Philadelphia, PA: American Philosophical Society. 84 (1): 71–123. ISSN 0003-049X. JSTOR 984852.
  17. ^ Caves, R. W. (2004). Encyclopedia of the City. Routledge. p. 169.
  18. ^ de Gans, Henk and Frans van Poppel (2000) Contributions from the margins. Dutch statisticians, actuaries and medical doctors and the methods of demography in the time of Wilhelm Lexis. Workshop on 'Lexis in Context: German and Eastern& Northern European Contributions to Demography 1860-1910' at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, August 28 and 29, 2000.
  19. ^ Max Roser; Hannah Ritchie; Esteban Ortiz-Ospina; Lucas Rodés-Guirao (2013). "How long did it take for the world population to increase by one billion?". Our World in Data. from the original on 13 October 2016. Retrieved 25 November 2022.
  20. ^ Power C and Elliott J (2006). "Cohort profile: 1958 British Cohort Study". International Journal of Epidemiology. 35 (1): 34–41. doi:10.1093/ije/dyi183. PMID 16155052.
  21. ^ Elliott J and Shepherd P (2006). "Cohort profile: 1970 British Birth Cohort (BCS70)". International Journal of Epidemiology. 35 (4): 836–43. doi:10.1093/ije/dyl174. PMID 16931528.
  22. ^ The last three are run by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies 28 October 2018 at the Wayback Machine
  23. ^ . Archived from the original on 3 April 2016. Retrieved 26 March 2016.
  24. ^ "examples of standardization" (PDF). (PDF) from the original on 7 July 2017. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  25. ^ "Global Population at a Glance: 2002 and Beyond" (PDF). (PDF) from the original on 6 January 2022. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  26. ^ (PDF). census.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 February 2022. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  27. ^ a b c d Introduction to environmental engineering and science by Masters and Ela, 2008, Pearson Education, chapter 3
  28. ^ Hoyt, H., Forces of Urban Centralization and Decentralization, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 46, No. 6 (May, 1941), pp. 843-852, accessed 2 July 2023
  29. ^ Cooper-Douglas, E., Tasmania forecast to have 79,000 more residents by 2033, with most living outside Greater Hobart, ABC News, published 5 January 2023, accessed 2 July 2023
  30. ^ See, for example, Barbara A. Anderson and Brian D. Silver, "Estimating Russification of Ethnic Identity Among Non-Russians in the USSR," Demography, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Nov., 1983): 461-489.
  31. ^ Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei (19 June 1997). (PDF). Nature. 387 (6635): 803–805. Bibcode:1997Natur.387..803L. doi:10.1038/42935. PMID 9194559. S2CID 4306159. Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 December 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-13.
  32. ^ John Bongaarts. The Fertility-Inhibiting Effects of the Intermediate Fertility Variables. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 13, No. 6/7. (Jun. - Jul., 1982), pp. 179-189.
  33. ^ "N C H S - Life Tables". from the original on 29 July 2020. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
  34. ^ Donald T. Rowland Demographic Methods and Concepts Ch. 11 ISBN 0-19-875263-6
  35. ^ "International Union for the Scientific Study of Population". from the original on 6 September 2019. Retrieved 20 April 2008.
  36. ^ "Population Association of America". from the original on 19 March 2011. Retrieved 14 April 2011.
  37. ^ "Fédération canadienne de démographie – Federation of Canadian Demographers". from the original on 7 February 2023. Retrieved 7 December 2022.

Further reading edit

  • Josef Ehmer, Jens Ehrhardt, Martin Kohli (Eds.): . Historical Social Research 36 (2), 2011.
  • Glad, John. 2008. Future Human Evolution: Eugenics in the Twenty-First Century. Hermitage Publishers, ISBN 1-55779-154-6
  • Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. 2011. Ageing and Longevity: Mortality Laws and Mortality Forecasts for Ageing Populations [In Czech: Stárnutí a dlouhověkost: Zákony a prognózy úmrtnosti pro stárnoucí populace]. Demografie, 53(2): 109–128.
  • Preston, Samuel, Patrick Heuveline, and Michel Guillot. 2000. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishing.
  • Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. 2010. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging. Rejuvenation Research, 13(2-3): 329–334.
  • Paul R. Ehrlich (1968), The Population Bomb Controversial Neo-Malthusianist pamphlet
  • Leonid A. Gavrilov & Natalia S. Gavrilova (1991), The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. New York: Harwood Academic Publisher, ISBN 3-7186-4983-7
  • Andrey Korotayev & Daria Khaltourina (2006). Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS ISBN 5-484-00414-4 [2]
  • Uhlenberg P. (Editor), (2009) International Handbook of the Demography of Aging, New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 113–131.
  • Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll (Eds.). 2003. The Encyclopedia of Population. New York, Macmillan Reference USA, vol.1, 32-37
  • Phillip Longman (2004), The Empty Cradle: how falling birth rates threaten global prosperity and what to do about it
  • Sven Kunisch, Stephan A. Boehm, Michael Boppel (eds) (2011). From Grey to Silver: Managing the Demographic Change Successfully, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-642-15593-2
  • Joe McFalls (2007), Population: A Lively Introduction, Population Reference Bureau [3] 1 June 2013 at the Wayback Machine
  • Ben J. Wattenberg (2004), How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future. Chicago: R. Dee, ISBN 1-56663-606-X
  • Perry, Marc J. & Mackun, Paul J. Population Change & Distribution: Census 2000 Brief. (2001)
  • Preston, Samuel; Heuveline, Patrick; and Guillot Michel. 2000. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishing.
  • Schutt, Russell K. 2006. "Investigating the Social World: The Process and Practice of Research". SAGE Publications.
  • Siegal, Jacob S. (2002), Applied Demography: Applications to Business, Government, Law, and Public Policy. San Diego: Academic Press.
  • Wattenberg, Ben J. (2004), How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future. Chicago: R. Dee, ISBN 1-56663-606-X

External links edit

  • (archived 4 March 2016)
  • Demography at Curlie
  • Historicalstatistics.org Links to historical demographic and economic statistics
  • United Nations Population Division: Homepage
    • , Population estimates and projections for 230 countries and areas (archived 6 May 2011)
    • World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision, Estimates and projections of urban and rural populations and urban agglomerations
    • , Probabilistic Population Projections, based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects (archived 13 December 2012)
  • Java Simulation of Population Dynamics.
  • Basic Guide to the World: Population changes and trends, 1960–2003
  • Brief review of world basic demographic trends
  • Family and Fertility Surveys (FFS)

demography, this, article, about, discipline, journal, journal, album, volt, basement, tapes, from, ancient, greek, δῆμος, dêmos, people, society, γραφία, graphía, writing, drawing, description, statistical, study, human, populations, their, size, composition,. This article is about the discipline For the journal see Demography journal For the album by 16 Volt see Demography The Basement Tapes Demography from Ancient Greek dῆmos demos people society and grafia graphia writing drawing description 1 is the statistical study of human populations their size composition e g race age and how they change through the interplay of fertility births mortality deaths and migration 2 The Demography of the World Population from 1950 to 2100 Data source United Nations World Population Prospects 2017Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as education nationality religion and ethnicity Educational institutions 3 usually treat demography as a field of sociology though there are a number of independent demography departments 4 These methods have primarily been developed to study human populations but are extended to a variety of areas where researchers want to know how populations of social actors can change across time through processes of birth death and migration In the context of human biological populations demographic analysis uses administrative records to develop an independent estimate of the population 5 Demographic analysis estimates are often considered a reliable standard for judging the accuracy of the census information gathered at any time In the labor force demographic analysis is used to estimate sizes and flows of populations of workers in population ecology the focus is on the birth death migration and immigration of individuals in a population of living organisms alternatively in social human sciences could involve movement of firms and institutional forms Demographic analysis is used in a wide variety of contexts For example it is often used in business plans to describe the population connected to the geographic location of the business 6 Demographic analysis is usually abbreviated as DA 7 For the 2010 U S Census The U S Census Bureau has expanded its DA categories 7 Also as part of the 2010 U S Census DA now also includes comparative analysis between independent housing estimates and census address lists at a different key time points 7 Patient demographics form the core of the data for any medical institution such as patient and emergency contact information and patient medical record data They allow for the identification of a patient and his categorization into categories for the purpose of statistical analysis Patient demographics include date of birth gender date of death postal code ethnicity blood type emergency contact information family doctor insurance provider data allergies major diagnoses and major medical history 8 Formal demography limits its object of study to the measurement of population processes while the broader field of social demography or population studies also analyses the relationships between economic social institutional cultural and biological processes influencing a population 9 Contents 1 History 2 Methods 2 1 Direct methods 2 2 Indirect methods 3 Population change 4 Standardization of population numbers 5 Common rates and ratios 6 Basic equation regarding development of a population 6 1 Science of population 7 Population composition 8 Demographic analysis in institutions and organizations 8 1 Labor market 8 2 Turnover and in internal labor markets 8 3 Population ecology of organizations 8 3 1 Business organizations 8 3 2 Nonprofit organizations 9 See also 9 1 Social surveys 9 2 Organizations 9 3 Scientific journals 10 References 11 Further reading 12 External linksHistory editDemographic thoughts traced back to antiquity and were present in many civilisations and cultures like Ancient Greece Ancient Rome China and India 10 Made up of the prefix demo and the suffix graphy the term demography refers to the overall study of population citation needed In ancient Greece this can be found in the writings of Herodotus Thucydides Hippocrates Epicurus Protagoras Polus Plato and Aristotle 10 In Rome writers and philosophers like Cicero Seneca Pliny the Elder Marcus Aurelius Epictetus Cato and Columella also expressed important ideas on this ground 10 In the Middle Ages Christian thinkers devoted much time in refuting the Classical ideas on demography Important contributors to the field were William of Conches 11 Bartholomew of Lucca 11 William of Auvergne 11 William of Pagula 11 and Muslim sociologists like Ibn Khaldun 12 One of the earliest demographic studies in the modern period was Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality 1662 by John Graunt which contains a primitive form of life table Among the study s findings were that one third of the children in London died before their sixteenth birthday Mathematicians such as Edmond Halley developed the life table as the basis for life insurance mathematics Richard Price was credited with the first textbook on life contingencies published in 1771 13 followed later by Augustus De Morgan On the Application of Probabilities to Life Contingencies 1838 14 In 1755 Benjamin Franklin published his essay Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind Peopling of Countries etc projecting exponential growth in British colonies 15 His work influenced Thomas Robert Malthus 16 who writing at the end of the 18th century feared that if unchecked population growth would tend to outstrip growth in food production leading to ever increasing famine and poverty see Malthusian catastrophe Malthus is seen as the intellectual father of ideas of overpopulation and the limits to growth Later more sophisticated and realistic models were presented by Benjamin Gompertz and Verhulst In 1855 a Belgian scholar Achille Guillard defined demography as the natural and social history of human species or the mathematical knowledge of populations of their general changes and of their physical civil intellectual and moral condition 17 The period 1860 1910 can be characterized as a period of transition where in demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest This period included a panoply of international great demographers like Adolphe Quetelet 1796 1874 William Farr 1807 1883 Louis Adolphe Bertillon 1821 1883 and his son Jacques 1851 1922 Joseph Korosi 1844 1906 Anders Nicolas Kaier 1838 1919 Richard Bockh 1824 1907 Emile Durkheim 1858 1917 Wilhelm Lexis 1837 1914 and Luigi Bodio 1840 1920 contributed to the development of demography and to the toolkit of methods and techniques of demographic analysis 18 Methods editDemography is the statistical and mathematical study of the size composition and spatial distribution of human populations and how these features change over time Data are obtained from a census of the population and from registries records of events like birth deaths migrations marriages divorces diseases and employment To do this there needs to be an understanding of how they are calculated and the questions they answer which are included in these four concepts population change standardization of population numbers the demographic bookkeeping equation and population composition citation needed There are two types of data collection direct and indirect with several methods of each type Direct methods edit Direct data comes from vital statistics registries that track all births and deaths as well as certain changes in legal status such as marriage divorce and migration registration of place of residence In developed countries with good registration systems such as the United States and much of Europe registry statistics are the best method for estimating the number of births and deaths A census is the other common direct method of collecting demographic data A census is usually conducted by a national government and attempts to enumerate every person in a country In contrast to vital statistics data which are typically collected continuously and summarized on an annual basis censuses typically occur only every 10 years or so and thus are not usually the best source of data on births and deaths Analyses are conducted after a census to estimate how much over or undercounting took place These compare the sex ratios from the census data to those estimated from natural values and mortality data Censuses do more than just count people They typically collect information about families or households in addition to individual characteristics such as age sex marital status literacy education employment status and occupation and geographical location They may also collect data on migration or place of birth or of previous residence language religion nationality or ethnicity or race and citizenship In countries in which the vital registration system may be incomplete the censuses are also used as a direct source of information about fertility and mortality for example the censuses of the People s Republic of China gather information on births and deaths that occurred in the 18 months immediately preceding the census nbsp Map of countries by population nbsp Rate of human population growth showing projections for later this century 19 Indirect methods edit Indirect methods of collecting data are required in countries and periods where full data are not available such as is the case in much of the developing world and most of historical demography One of these techniques in contemporary demography is the sister method where survey researchers ask women how many of their sisters have died or had children and at what age With these surveys researchers can then indirectly estimate birth or death rates for the entire population Other indirect methods in contemporary demography include asking people about siblings parents and children Other indirect methods are necessary in historical demography citation needed There are a variety of demographic methods for modelling population processes They include models of mortality including the life table Gompertz models hazards models Cox proportional hazards models multiple decrement life tables Brass relational logits fertility Hermes model Coale Trussell models parity progression ratios marriage Singulate Mean at Marriage Page model disability Sullivan s method multistate life tables population projections Lee Carter model the Leslie Matrix and population momentum Keyfitz The United Kingdom has a series of four national birth cohort studies the first three spaced apart by 12 years the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development the 1958 National Child Development Study 20 the 1970 British Cohort Study 21 and the Millennium Cohort Study begun much more recently in 2000 These have followed the lives of samples of people typically beginning with around 17 000 in each study for many years and are still continuing As the samples have been drawn in a nationally representative way inferences can be drawn from these studies about the differences between four distinct generations of British people in terms of their health education attitudes childbearing and employment patterns 22 Indirect standardization is used when a population is small enough that the number of events births deaths etc are also small In this case methods must be used to produce a standardized mortality rate SMR or standardized incidence rate SIR 23 24 Population change editPopulation change is analyzed by measuring the change between one population size to another Global population continues to rise which makes population change an essential component to demographics This is calculated by taking one population size minus the population size in an earlier census The best way of measuring population change is using the intercensal percentage change The intercensal percentage change is the absolute change in population between the censuses divided by the population size in the earlier census Next multiply this a hundredfold to receive a percentage When this statistic is achieved the population growth between two or more nations that differ in size can be accurately measured and examined 25 26 Standardization of population numbers editFor there to be a significant comparison numbers must be altered for the size of the population that is under study For example the fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of childbearing age to the total number of women in this age range If these adjustments were not made we would not know if a nation with a higher rate of births or deaths has a population with more women of childbearing age or more births per eligible woman citation needed Within the category of standardization there are two major approaches direct standardization and indirect standardization citation needed Common rates and ratios editThe crude birth rate the annual number of live births per 1 000 people The general fertility rate the annual number of live births per 1 000 women of childbearing age often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old but sometimes from 15 to 44 The age specific fertility rates the annual number of live births per 1 000 women in particular age groups usually age 15 19 20 24 etc The crude death rate the annual number of deaths per 1 000 people The infant mortality rate the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1 000 live births The expectation of life or life expectancy the number of years that an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels The total fertility rate the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life if her childbearing at each age reflected current age specific fertility rates The replacement level fertility the average number of children women must have in order to replace the population for the next generation For example the replacement level fertility in the US is 2 11 27 The gross reproduction rate the number of daughters who would be born to a woman completing her reproductive life at current age specific fertility rates The net reproduction ratio is the expected number of daughters per newborn prospective mother who may or may not survive to and through the ages of childbearing A stable population one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such a long period of time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant or equivalently the population pyramid has an unchanging structure 27 A stationary population one that is both stable and unchanging in size the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero 27 Measures of centralisation are concerned with the extent to which an area s population is concentrated in its urban centres 28 29 A stable population does not necessarily remain fixed in size It can be expanding or shrinking 27 The crude death rate as defined above and applied to a whole population can give a misleading impression For example the number of deaths per 1 000 people can be higher in developed nations than in less developed countries despite standards of health being better in developed countries This is because developed countries have proportionally more older people who are more likely to die in a given year so that the overall mortality rate can be higher even if the mortality rate at any given age is lower A more complete picture of mortality is given by a life table which summarizes mortality separately at each age A life table is necessary to give a good estimate of life expectancy Basic equation regarding development of a population editSuppose that a country or other entity contains Populationt persons at time t What is the size of the population at time t 1 Population t 1 Population t Natural Increase t Net Migration t displaystyle text Population t 1 text Population t text Natural Increase t text Net Migration t nbsp Natural increase from time t to t 1 Natural Increase t Births t Deaths t displaystyle text Natural Increase t text Births t text Deaths t nbsp Net migration from time t to t 1 Net Migration t Immigration t Emigration t displaystyle text Net Migration t text Immigration t text Emigration t nbsp These basic equations can also be applied to subpopulations For example the population size of ethnic groups or nationalities within a given society or country is subject to the same sources of change When dealing with ethnic groups however net migration might have to be subdivided into physical migration and ethnic reidentification assimilation Individuals who change their ethnic self labels or whose ethnic classification in government statistics changes over time may be thought of as migrating or moving from one population subcategory to another 30 More generally while the basic demographic equation holds true by definition in practice the recording and counting of events births deaths immigration emigration and the enumeration of the total population size are subject to error So allowance needs to be made for error in the underlying statistics when any accounting of population size or change is made The figure in this section shows the latest 2004 UN United Nations WHO projections of world population out to the year 2150 red high orange medium green low The UN medium projection shows world population reaching an approximate equilibrium at 9 billion by 2075 Working independently demographers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria expect world population to peak at 9 billion by 2070 31 Throughout the 21st century the average age of the population is likely to continue to rise Science of population edit Populations can change through three processes fertility mortality and migration Fertility involves the number of children that women have and is to be contrasted with fecundity a woman s childbearing potential 32 Mortality is the study of the causes consequences and measurement of processes affecting death to members of the population Demographers most commonly study mortality using the life table a statistical device that provides information about the mortality conditions most notably the life expectancy in the population 33 Migration refers to the movement of persons from a locality of origin to a destination place across some predefined political boundary Migration researchers do not designate movements migrations unless they are somewhat permanent Thus demographers do not consider tourists and travellers to be migrating While demographers who study migration typically do so through census data on place of residence indirect sources of data including tax forms and labour force surveys are also important 34 Demography is today widely taught in many universities across the world attracting students with initial training in social sciences statistics or health studies Being at the crossroads of several disciplines such as sociology economics epidemiology geography anthropology and history demography offers tools to approach a large range of population issues by combining a more technical quantitative approach that represents the core of the discipline with many other methods borrowed from social or other sciences Demographic research is conducted in universities in research institutes as well as in statistical departments and in several international agencies Population institutions are part of the CICRED International Committee for Coordination of Demographic Research network while most individual scientists engaged in demographic research are members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population 35 or a national association such as the Population Association of America in the United States 36 or affiliates of the Federation of Canadian Demographers in Canada 37 Population composition editPopulation composition is the description of population defined by characteristics such as age race sex or marital status These descriptions can be necessary for understanding the social dynamics from historical and comparative research This data is often compared using a population pyramid Population composition is also a very important part of historical research Information ranging back hundreds of years is not always worthwhile because the numbers of people for which data are available may not provide the information that is important such as population size Lack of information on the original data collection procedures may prevent accurate evaluation of data quality Demographic analysis in institutions and organizations editLabor market edit The demographic analysis of labor markets can be used to show slow population growth population aging and the increased importance of immigration The U S Census Bureau projects that in the next 100 years the United States will face some dramatic demographic changes citation needed The population is expected to grow more slowly and age more rapidly than ever before and the nation will become a nation of immigrants This influx is projected to rise over the next century as new immigrants and their children will account for over half the U S population These demographic shifts could ignite major adjustments in the economy more specifically in labor markets citation needed Turnover and in internal labor markets edit People decide to exit organizations for many reasons such as better jobs dissatisfaction and concerns within the family The causes of turnover can be split into two separate factors one linked with the culture of the organization and the other relating to all other factors People who do not fully accept a culture might leave voluntarily Or some individuals might leave because they fail to fit in and fail to change within a particular organization Population ecology of organizations edit Main article organizational ecology A basic definition of population ecology is a study of the distribution and abundance of organisms As it relates to organizations and demography organizations go through various liabilities to their continued survival Hospitals like all other large and complex organizations are impacted in the environment they work For example a study was done on the closure of acute care hospitals in Florida between a particular time The study examined effect size age and niche density of these particular hospitals A population theory says that organizational outcomes are mostly determined by environmental factors Among several factors of the theory there are four that apply to the hospital closure example size age density of niches in which organizations operate and density of niches in which organizations are established citation needed Business organizations edit Problems in which demographers may be called upon to assist business organizations are when determining the best prospective location in an area of a branch store or service outlet predicting the demand for a new product and to analyze certain dynamics of a company s workforce Choosing a new location for a branch of a bank choosing the area in which to start a new supermarket consulting a bank loan officer that a particular location would be a beneficial site to start a car wash and determining what shopping area would be best to buy and be redeveloped in metropolis area are types of problems in which demographers can be called upon Standardization is a useful demographic technique used in the analysis of a business It can be used as an interpretive and analytic tool for the comparison of different markets Nonprofit organizations edit These organizations have interests about the number and characteristics of their clients so they can maximize the sale of their products their outlook on their influence or the ends of their power services and beneficial works See also editBiodemography Biodemography of human longevity Demographics of the world Demographic economics Gompertz Makeham law of mortality Linguistic demography List of demographics articles Medieval demography National Security Study Memorandum 200 of 1974 NRS social grade Political demography Population biology Population dynamics Population geography Population reconstruction Population statistics Religious demography Replacement migration Reproductive healthSocial surveys edit Current Population Survey CPS Demographic and Health Surveys DHS European Social Survey ESS General Social Survey GSS German General Social Survey ALLBUS Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys MICS National Longitudinal Survey NLS Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 PMA2020 Socio Economic Panel SOEP German World Values Survey WVS Organizations edit Global Social Change Research Project United States Institut national d etudes demographiques INED France Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Germany Office of Population Research Princeton University United States Population Council United States Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan United States Vienna Institute of Demography VID Austria Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Austria Scientific journals edit Brazilian Journal of Population Studies Cahiers quebecois de demographie Demography Population and Development ReviewReferences edit demography Merriam Webster com Dictionary McFalls Jr Joseph A Population A Lively Introduction Population Bulletin 46 2 1991 n2 https www prb org resources population a lively introduction The Science of Population demographicpartitions org Archived from the original on 14 August 2015 Retrieved 4 August 2015 UC Berkeley Demography department website Archived from the original on 1 September 2006 Retrieved 12 October 2006 Demographic Analysis PDF U S Census Monitoring Board Retrieved 3 October 2023 Jean Murray How to Use Demographics for Business Advertising About com Money Archived from the original on 6 October 2011 Retrieved 26 March 2016 a b c US Census Bureau Webdesign SSD Laura K Yax Content DSSD Phil Gbur POP Jason Devine Coverage Measurement Archived from the original on 10 January 2016 Retrieved 26 March 2016 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a CS1 maint multiple names authors list link What Are Patient Demographics 21 December 2011 Archived from the original on 28 January 2021 Retrieved 15 November 2020 Andrew Hinde Demographic Methods Ch 1 ISBN 0 340 71892 7 a b c Srivastava Sangya December 2005 S C Srivastava Studies in Demography p 39 41 Anmol Publications Pvt Limited ISBN 9788126119929 a b c d Peter Biller The measure of multitude Population in medieval thought 1 See e g Andrey Korotayev Artemy Malkov amp Daria Khaltourina 2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth Archived 9 July 2019 at the Wayback Machine Moscow URSS ISBN 5 484 00414 4 Our Yesterdays the History of the Actuarial Profession in North America 1809 1979 by E J Jack Moorhead FSA 1 23 10 2 21 04 published by the Society of Actuaries as part of the profession s centennial celebration in 1989 The History of Insurance Vol 3 Edited by David Jenkins and Takau Yoneyama 1 85196 527 0 8 Volume Set 2000 Availability Japan Kinokuniya von Valtier William F June 2011 An Extravagant Assumption The Demographic Numbers behind Benjamin Franklin s Twenty Five Year Doubling Period PDF Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 155 2 158 188 Archived from the original PDF on 5 March 2016 Retrieved 19 September 2018 Zirkle Conway 25 April 1941 Natural Selection before the Origin of Species Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society Philadelphia PA American Philosophical Society 84 1 71 123 ISSN 0003 049X JSTOR 984852 Caves R W 2004 Encyclopedia of the City Routledge p 169 de Gans Henk and Frans van Poppel 2000 Contributions from the margins Dutch statisticians actuaries and medical doctors and the methods of demography in the time of Wilhelm Lexis Workshop on Lexis in Context German and Eastern amp Northern European Contributions to Demography 1860 1910 at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Rostock August 28 and 29 2000 Max Roser Hannah Ritchie Esteban Ortiz Ospina Lucas Rodes Guirao 2013 How long did it take for the world population to increase by one billion Our World in Data Archived from the original on 13 October 2016 Retrieved 25 November 2022 Power C and Elliott J 2006 Cohort profile 1958 British Cohort Study International Journal of Epidemiology 35 1 34 41 doi 10 1093 ije dyi183 PMID 16155052 Elliott J and Shepherd P 2006 Cohort profile 1970 British Birth Cohort BCS70 International Journal of Epidemiology 35 4 836 43 doi 10 1093 ije dyl174 PMID 16931528 The last three are run by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies Archived 28 October 2018 at the Wayback Machine Direct and Indirect Standardization of Mortality Rates Archived from the original on 3 April 2016 Retrieved 26 March 2016 examples of standardization PDF Archived PDF from the original on 7 July 2017 Retrieved 16 October 2022 Global Population at a Glance 2002 and Beyond PDF Archived PDF from the original on 6 January 2022 Retrieved 16 October 2022 Global Population Profile 2002 PDF census gov Archived from the original PDF on 1 February 2022 Retrieved 3 October 2023 a b c d Introduction to environmental engineering and science by Masters and Ela 2008 Pearson Education chapter 3 Hoyt H Forces of Urban Centralization and Decentralization American Journal of Sociology Vol 46 No 6 May 1941 pp 843 852 accessed 2 July 2023 Cooper Douglas E Tasmania forecast to have 79 000 more residents by 2033 with most living outside Greater Hobart ABC News published 5 January 2023 accessed 2 July 2023 See for example Barbara A Anderson and Brian D Silver Estimating Russification of Ethnic Identity Among Non Russians in the USSR Demography Vol 20 No 4 Nov 1983 461 489 Lutz Wolfgang Sanderson Warren Scherbov Sergei 19 June 1997 Doubling of world population unlikely PDF Nature 387 6635 803 805 Bibcode 1997Natur 387 803L doi 10 1038 42935 PMID 9194559 S2CID 4306159 Archived from the original PDF on 16 December 2008 Retrieved 2008 11 13 John Bongaarts The Fertility Inhibiting Effects of the Intermediate Fertility Variables Studies in Family Planning Vol 13 No 6 7 Jun Jul 1982 pp 179 189 N C H S Life Tables Archived from the original on 29 July 2020 Retrieved 9 September 2017 Donald T Rowland Demographic Methods and Concepts Ch 11 ISBN 0 19 875263 6 International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Archived from the original on 6 September 2019 Retrieved 20 April 2008 Population Association of America Archived from the original on 19 March 2011 Retrieved 14 April 2011 Federation canadienne de demographie Federation of Canadian Demographers Archived from the original on 7 February 2023 Retrieved 7 December 2022 Further reading editJosef Ehmer Jens Ehrhardt Martin Kohli Eds Fertility in the History of the 20th Century Trends Theories Policies Discourses Historical Social Research 36 2 2011 Glad John 2008 Future Human Evolution Eugenics in the Twenty First Century Hermitage Publishers ISBN 1 55779 154 6 Gavrilova N S Gavrilov L A 2011 Ageing and Longevity Mortality Laws and Mortality Forecasts for Ageing Populations In Czech Starnuti a dlouhovekost Zakony a prognozy umrtnosti pro starnouci populace Demografie 53 2 109 128 Preston Samuel Patrick Heuveline and Michel Guillot 2000 Demography Measuring and Modeling Population Processes Blackwell Publishing Gavrilov L A Gavrilova N S 2010 Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging Rejuvenation Research 13 2 3 329 334 Paul R Ehrlich 1968 The Population Bomb Controversial Neo Malthusianist pamphlet Leonid A Gavrilov amp Natalia S Gavrilova 1991 The Biology of Life Span A Quantitative Approach New York Harwood Academic Publisher ISBN 3 7186 4983 7 Andrey Korotayev amp Daria Khaltourina 2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth Moscow URSS ISBN 5 484 00414 4 2 Uhlenberg P Editor 2009 International Handbook of the Demography of Aging New York Springer Verlag pp 113 131 Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll Eds 2003 The Encyclopedia of Population New York Macmillan Reference USA vol 1 32 37 Phillip Longman 2004 The Empty Cradle how falling birth rates threaten global prosperity and what to do about it Sven Kunisch Stephan A Boehm Michael Boppel eds 2011 From Grey to Silver Managing the Demographic Change Successfully Springer Verlag Berlin Heidelberg ISBN 978 3 642 15593 2 Joe McFalls 2007 Population A Lively Introduction Population Reference Bureau 3 Archived 1 June 2013 at the Wayback Machine Ben J Wattenberg 2004 How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future Chicago R Dee ISBN 1 56663 606 X Perry Marc J amp Mackun Paul J Population Change amp Distribution Census 2000 Brief 2001 Preston Samuel Heuveline Patrick and Guillot Michel 2000 Demography Measuring and Modeling Population Processes Blackwell Publishing Schutt Russell K 2006 Investigating the Social World The Process and Practice of Research SAGE Publications Siegal Jacob S 2002 Applied Demography Applications to Business Government Law and Public Policy San Diego Academic Press Wattenberg Ben J 2004 How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future Chicago R Dee ISBN 1 56663 606 XExternal links edit nbsp Look up demography in Wiktionary the free dictionary nbsp Wikimedia Commons has media related to Demography nbsp Wikisource has original works on the topic Demography Quick demography data lookup archived 4 March 2016 Demography at Curlie Historicalstatistics org Links to historical demographic and economic statistics United Nations Population Division Homepage World Population Prospects the 2012 Revision Population estimates and projections for 230 countries and areas archived 6 May 2011 World Urbanization Prospects the 2011 Revision Estimates and projections of urban and rural populations and urban agglomerations Probabilistic Population Projections the 2nd Revision Probabilistic Population Projections based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects archived 13 December 2012 Java Simulation of Population Dynamics Basic Guide to the World Population changes and trends 1960 2003 Brief review of world basic demographic trends Family and Fertility Surveys FFS Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Demography amp oldid 1206643836, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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