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Effects of climate change

August 28, 2023

For effects of changes in climate prior to the current period of global warming, see Historical climatology.

Climate change affects the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. Changes in the climate system include an overall warming trend, more extreme weather and rising sea levels. These in turn impact nature and wildlife, as well as human settlements and societies.[5] The effects of human-caused climate change are broad and far-reaching, especially if significant climate action is not taken. The projected and observed negative impacts of climate change are sometimes referred to as the climate crisis.

Some climate change effects, clockwise from top left: Wildfire caused by heat and dryness, bleached coral caused by ocean acidification and heating, coastal flooding caused by storms and sea level rise, and environmental migration caused by desertification
The primary causes[1] and the wide-ranging impacts[2][3]: 3–36  of climate change. Some effects act as feedbacks that intensify climate change.[4]

The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas, and the Arctic is warming faster than most other regions.[6] Among the effects of climate change on oceans are an increase of ocean temperatures, a rise in sea level from ocean warming and ice sheet melting, increased ocean stratification, and changes to ocean currents including a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.[3]: 10  Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is acidifiying the ocean.[7]

Recent warming has strongly affected natural biological systems.[8] It has degraded land by raising temperatures, drying soils and increasing wildfire risk.[9]: 9  Species worldwide are migrating poleward to colder areas. On land, many species move to higher ground, whereas marine species seek colder water at greater depths.[10] At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered.[11]: 259 

Food security and access to fresh water are at risk due to rising temperatures. Climate change has profound impacts on human health, directly via heat stress and indirectly via the spread of infectious diseases. The vulnerability and exposure of humans to climate change varies by economic sector and by country. Wealthy industrialised countries, which have emitted the most CO2, have more resources and so are the least vulnerable to global warming.[12] Economic sectors affected include agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy, insurance, and tourism. Some groups may be particularly at risk from climate change, such as the poor, women, children and indigenous peoples.[13][14] Climate change can lead to displacement and changes in migration flows.[15]

Changes in temperature

Further information: Global surface temperature, Instrumental temperature record, and Heat wave
 
Average surface air temperatures from 2011 to 2021 compared to the 1956–1976 average. Source: NASA

Global warming affects all parts of Earth's climate system.[16] Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future.[17][18] The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions.[6] Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures.[19] The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms.[20]

Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate.[21] To assess changes in Earth's past climate scientists have studied tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments.[22] These show that recent temperatures have surpassed anything in the last 2,000 years.[23] By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may increase to a level last seen in the mid-Pliocene. This was around 3 million years ago.[24] At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C (3.6–7.2 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. The global mean sea level was up to 25 meters higher than it is today.[25] The modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 concentrations has been rapid. even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates.[26]

 
Projected temperature and sea-level rise relative to the 2000–2019 mean for RCP climate change scenarios up to 2500[27][28]

How much the world warms depends on human greenhouse gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases.[29] The more carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted in the 21st century the hotter the world will be by 2100. For a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations, the global mean temperature would rise by about 2.5–4 °C (4.5–7.2 °F).[30] What would happen if emissions of CO2 stopped abruptly and there was no use of negative emission technologies? The Earth's climate would not start moving back to its pre-industrial state. Temperatures would stay at the same high level for several centuries. After about a thousand years, 20% to 30% of human-emitted CO2 would remain in the atmosphere. The ocean and land would not have taken them. This would commit the climate to a warmer state long after emissions have stopped.[31]

With current mitigation policies the temperature will be about 2.7 °C (2.0–3.6 °C) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. It would rise to 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) if governments achieve all unconditional pledges and targets they have made. If all the countries that have set or are considering net-zero targets achieve them, the temperature will rise by around 1.8 °C (3.2 °F). There is a big gap between national plans and commitments and the actions that governments have taken around the world.[32]

Weather

The lower and middle atmosphere, where nearly all weather occurs, are heating due to the greenhouse effect.[33] Evaporation and atmospheric moisture content increase as temperatures rise.[34] Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so this process is a self-reinforcing feedback.[35]

The excess water vapour also gets caught up in storms. This makes them more intense, larger, and potentially longer-lasting. This in turn causes rain and snow events to become stronger and leads to increased risk of flooding. Extra drying worsens natural dry spells and droughts. This increases risk of heat waves and wildfires.[34] Scientists have identified human activities as the cause of recent climate trends. They are now able to estimate the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. They call this process extreme event attribution. For instance such research can look at historical data for a region and conclude that a specific heat wave was more intense due to climate change.[36]

Heat waves and temperature extremes

See also: Heat wave
 
New high temperature records have outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.[37]
 
Large increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (for increasing degrees of global warming) are expected.[38]: 18 
 
Map of increasing heatwave trends (frequency and cumulative intensity) over the midlatitudes and Europe, July–August 1979–2020[39]

Heatwaves over land have become more frequent and more intense in almost all world regions since the 1950s, due to climate change. Heat waves are more likely to occur simultaneously with droughts. Marine heatwaves are twice as likely as they were in 1980.[40] Climate change will lead to more very hot days and fewer very cold days.[41]: 7  There are fewer cold waves.[38]: 8 

Experts can often attribute the intensity of individual heat waves to global warming. Some extreme events would have been nearly impossible without human influence on the climate system. A heatwave that would occur once every ten years before global warming started now occurs 2.8 times as often. Under further warming, heatwaves are set to become more frequent. An event that would occur every ten years would occur every other year if global warming reaches 2 °C (3.6 °F).[42]

Heat stress is related to temperature. It also increases if humidity is higher. The wet-bulb temperature measures both temperature and humidity. Humans cannot adapt to a wet-bulb temperature above 35 °C (95 °F). This heat stress can kill people. If global warming is kept below 1.5 or 2 °C (2.7 or 3.6 °F), it will probably be possible to avoid this deadly heat and humidity in most of the tropics. But there may still be negative health impacts.[43][44]

There is some evidence climate change is leading to a weakening of the polar vortex. This would make the jet stream more wavy.[45] This would lead to outbursts of very cold winter weather across parts of Eurasia[46] and North America and incursions of very warm air into the Arctic.[47][48][49]

Rain

Main article: Effects of climate change on the water cycle

Warming increases global average precipitation. Precipitation is when water vapour condenses out of clouds, such as rain and snow.[50]: 1057  Higher temperatures increase evaporation and surface drying. As the air warms it can hold more water. For every degree Celsius it can hold 7% more water vapour.[50]: 1057  Scientists have observed changes in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.[51] Overall, climate change is causing longer hot dry spells, broken by more intense rainfall.[52]: 151, 154 

Climate change has increased contrasts in rainfall amounts between wet and dry seasons. Wet seasons are getting wetter and dry seasons are getting drier. In the northern high latitudes, warming has also caused an increase in the amount of snow and rain.[50]: 1057  In the Southern Hemisphere, the rain associated with the storm tracks has shifted south. Changes in monsoons vary a lot. More monsoon systems are becoming wetter than drier. In Asia summer monsoons are getting wetter. The West African monsoon is getting wetter over the central Sahel, and drier in the far western Sahel.[50]: 1058 

Extreme storms

 
New Orleans submerged after Hurricane Katrina, September 2005

Storms become wetter under climate change. These include tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones. Both the maximum and mean rainfall rates increase. This more extreme rainfall is also true for thunderstorms in some regions.[53] Furthermore, tropical cyclones and storm tracks are moving towards the poles. This means some regions will see large changes in maximum wind speeds.[53][54] Scientists expect there will be fewer tropical cyclones. But they expect their strength to increase.[54] There has probably been an increase in the number of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly.[53]

Impacts on land

Floods

 
High tide flooding is increasing due to sea level rise, land subsidence, and the loss of natural barriers.[55]
 
Long-term sea level rise occurs in addition to intermittent tidal flooding. NOAA predicts different levels of sea level rise for coastlines within a single country.[56]

Due to an increase in heavy rainfall events, floods are likely to become more severe when they do occur.[50]: 1155  The interactions between rainfall and flooding are complex. There are some regions in which flooding is expected to become rarer. This depends on several factors. These include changes in rain and snowmelt, but also soil moisture.[50]: 1156  Climate change leaves soils drier in some areas, so they may absorb rainfall more quickly. This leads to less flooding. Dry soils can also become harder. In this case heavy rainfall runs off into rivers and lakes. This increases risks of flooding.[50]: 1155 

Droughts

 
A dry lakebed in California. In 2022, the state was experiencing its most serious drought in 1,200 years, worsened by climate change.[57]

Climate change affects many factors associated with droughts. These include how much rain falls and how fast the rain evaporates again. Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world.[58][50]: 1057  In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world, there will probably be less rain due to global warming. This will make them more prone to drought. Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world. These include Central America, the Amazon and south-western South America. They also include West and Southern Africa. The Mediterranean and south-western Australia are also some of these regions.[50]: 1157 

Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increases plant stress. Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts.[50]: 1157  These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100.[50]: 1157  Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.[59]

Several impacts make their impacts worse. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas.[60] Land restoration can help reduce the impact of droughts. One example of this is agroforestry.[61]

Wildfires

Further information: Wildfire § Climate change effects
 
Average U.S. acreage burned annually by wildfires has almost tripled in three decades.[62]

Climate change promotes the type of weather that makes wildfires more likely. In some areas, an increase of wildfires has been attributed directly to climate change. Evidence from Earth's past also shows more fire in warmer periods.[63] Climate change increases evaporation. This can cause vegetation to dry out. When a fire starts in an area with very dry vegetation, it can spread rapidly. Higher temperatures can also lengthen the fire season. This is the time of year in which severe wildfires are most likely, particularly in regions where snow is disappearing.[64]

Weather conditions are raising the risks of wildfires. But the total area burnt by wildfires has decreased. This is mostly because savanna has been converted to cropland, so there are fewer trees to burn. Prescribed burning isan indigenous practice in the US and Australia. It can reduce wildfire burning.[64] The carbon released from wildfires can add to greenhouse gas concentrations. Climate models do not yet full reflect this feedback.[38]: 20 

Oceans

 
Oceans have taken up almost 90% of the excess heat accumulated on Earth due to global warming.[65]
 
Part of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia in 2016 after a coral bleaching event
This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on oceans.[edit]

There are many effects of climate change on oceans. One of the main ones is an increase inocean temperatures. More frequent marine heatwaves are linked to this. The rising temperature contributes to a rise in sea levels. Other effects include ocean acidification, sea ice decline, increased ocean stratification and reductions in oxygen levels. Changes to ocean currents including a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are another important effect.[66] All these changes have knock-on effects which disturb marine ecosystems. The main cause of these changes is climate change due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide and methane are examples of greenhouse gases. This leads to ocean warming, because the ocean takes up most of the additional heat in the climate system.[67] The ocean absorbs some of the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This causes the pH value of the ocean to drop.[68] Scientists estimate that the ocean absorbs about 25% of all human-caused CO2 emissions.[68]

Ocean temperature stratification is the difference in temperature between the various layers of the ocean. It increases as the ocean surface warms due to rising air temperatures.[69]: 471  The decline in mixing of the ocean layers stabilizes warm water near the surface. It also reduces cold, deep water circulation. The reduced vertical mixing makes it harder for the ocean to absorb heat. So a larger share of future warming goes into the atmosphere and land. One result is an increase in the amount of energy available for tropical cyclones and other storms. Another result is a decrease in nutrients for fish in the upper ocean layers. These changes also reduce the ocean's capacity to store carbon.[70] At the same time, contrasts in salinity are increasing. Salty areas are becoming saltier and fresher areas less salty.[71]

Warmer water cannot contain the same amount of oxygen as cold water. As a result, oxygen from the oceans moves to the atmosphere. Increased thermal stratification may reduce the supply of oxygen from surface waters to deeper waters. This lowers the water's oxygen content even more.[72] The ocean has already lost oxygen throughout its water column. Oxygen minimum zones are expanding worldwide.[69]: 471 

Sea level rise

This section is an excerpt from Sea level rise.[edit]
 
Global sea level rise from 1880 onwards (the values are shown as change in sea level in millimeters compared to the 1993-2008 average).[73]

Between 1901 and 2018, the average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), or an average of 1–2 mm per year.[74] This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[75] Climate change due to human activities is the main cause. Between 1993 and 2018, thermal expansion of water accounted for 42% of sea level rise. Melting temperate glaciers accounted for 21%, with Greenland accounting for 15% and Antarctica 8%.[76]: 1576  Sea level rise lags changes in the Earth's temperature. So sea level rise will continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that is already happening.[77] What happens after that will depend on what happens with human greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise may slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach a little over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it may accelerate. It could rise by 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) or even 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) by then.[78][79] In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[78]: 21 

Rising seas ultimately impact every coastal and island population on Earth.[80][81] This can be through flooding, higher storm surges, king tides, and tsunamis. These have many knock-on effects. They lead to loss of coastal ecosystems like mangroves. Crop production falls because of salinization of irrigation water. And damage to ports disrupts sea trade.[82][83][84] The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding. Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the century.[85] Areas not directly exposed to rising sea levels could be affected by large scale migrations and economic disruption.

Ice and snow

See also: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
 
Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017, with melting grounded ice (ice sheets and glaciers) raising the global sea level by 34.6 ±3.1 mm.[86] The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s−from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year.[86]
 
Melting of glacial mass is approximately linearly related to temperature rise.[87]
 
Shrinkage of snow cover duration in the Alps, starting ca. end of the 19th century, highlighting climate change adaptation needs[88]

The cryosphere, the area of the Earth covered by snow or ice, is extremely sensitive to changes in global climate.[89] There has been an extensive loss of snow on land since 1981. Some of the largest declines have been observed in the spring.[90] During the 21st century, snow cover is projected to continue its retreat in almost all regions.[91]

Glaciers and ice sheets decline

Further information: Retreat of glaciers since 1850

Since the beginning of the twentieth century, there has been a widespread retreat of glaciers.[92]: 1215  Those glaciers that are not associated with the polar ice sheets lost around 8% of their mass between 1971 and 2019.[92]: 1275  In the Andes in South America and in the Himalayas in Asia, the retreat of glaciers could impact water supply.[93][94] The melting of those glaciers could also cause landslides or glacial lake outburst floods.[95]

The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will continue to contribute to sea level rise over long time-scales. The Greenland ice sheet loss is mainly driven by melt from the top. Antarctic ice loss is driven by warm ocean water melting the outlet glaciers.[92]: 1215 

Future melt of the West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially abrupt under a high emission scenario, as a consequence of a partial collapse.[96] Part of the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock below sea level. This makes it possibly vulnerable to the self-enhancing process of marine ice sheet instability. Marine ice cliff instability could also contribute to a partial collapse. But there is limited evidence for its importance.[92]: 1269–1270  A partial collapse of the ice sheet would lead to rapid sea level rise and a local decrease in ocean salinity. It would be irreversible for decades and possibly even millennia.[96] The complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet would cause over 5 metres (16 ft) of sea level rise.[97]

In contrast to the West Antarctic ice sheet, melt of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to take place more gradually over millennia.[96] Sustained warming between 1 °C (1.8 °F) (low confidence) and 4 °C (7.2 °F) (medium confidence) would lead to a complete loss of the ice sheet. This would contribute 7 m (23 ft) to sea levels globally.[98] The ice loss could become irreversible due to a further self-enhancing feedback. This is called the elevation-surface mass balance feedback. When ice melts on top of the ice sheet, the elevation drops. Air temperature is higher at lower altitudes, so this promotes further melting.[99]

Sea ice decline

Further information: Arctic sea ice decline and Antarctic sea ice § Recent trends and climate change

Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of the incoming solar radiation back into space. Only 6% of incoming solar energy is reflected by the ocean.[100] As the climate warms, the area covered by snow or sea ice decreases. After sea ice melts, more energy is absorbed by the ocean, so it warms up. This ice-albedo feedback is a self-reinforcing feedback of climate change.[101] Large-scale measurements of sea ice have only been possible since we have been using satellites.[102]

Sea ice in the Arctic has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century. It has a rate of decline of 4.7% per decade. It has declined over 50% since the first satellite records.[103][104][105] Ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) degrees of warming. They are set to occur at least once every decade with a warming level of 2 °C (3.6 °F).[106] The Arctic will likely become ice-free at the end of some summers before 2050.[92]: 9 

Sea ice extent in Antarctica varies a lot year by year. This makes it difficult to determine a trend, and record highs and record lows have been observed between 2013 and 2023. The general trend since 1979, the start of the satellite measurements, has been roughly flat. Between 2015 and 2023, there has been a decline in sea ice, but due to the high variability, this does not correspond to a significant trend.[107]

Permafrost thawing

Further information: Permafrost § Impacts of climate change, and Climate change in Russia § Permafrost

Globally, permafrost warmed by about 0.3 °C between 2007 and 2016. The extent of permafrost has been falling for decades. More decline is expected in the future.[92]: 1280  Permafrost thaw makes the ground weaker and unstable. The thaw can seriously damage human infrastructure in permafrost areas such as railways, settlements and pipelines.[108]: 236  Thawing soil can also release methane and CO2 from decomposing microbes. This can generate a strong feedback loop to global warming.[109][110] Some scientists believe that carbon storage in permafrost globally is approximately 1600 gigatons. This is twice the atmospheric pool.[111]

Wildlife and nature

Main article: Effects of climate change on ecosystems
See also: Extinction risk from climate change

Recent warming has had a big effect on natural biological systems.[8] Species worldwide are moving poleward to colder areas. On land, species may move to higher elevations. Marine species find colder water at greater depths.[10] Climate change had the third biggest impact on nature out of various factors in the five decades up to 2020. Only change in land use and sea use and direct exploitation of organisms had a bigger impact.[112]

The impacts of climate change on nature are likely to become bigger in the next few decades.[113] The stresses caused by climate change, combine with other stresses on ecological systems such as land conversion, land degradation, harvesting, and pollution. They threaten substantial damage to unique ecosystems. They can even result in their complete loss and the extinction of species.[114][115] This can disrupt key interactions between species within ecosystems. This is because species from one location do not leave the warming habitat at the same rate. The result is rapid changes in the way the ecosystem functions.[10] Impacts include changes in regional rainfall patterns. Another is earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions. Movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes,[116] changes in bird migrations, and shifting of the oceans' plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities are other impacts.[117]

These changes of land and ocean ecosystems have direct effects on human well-being.[118][119] For instance, ocean ecosystems help with coastal protection and provide food.[119] Freshwater and land ecosystems can provide water for human consumption. Furthermore, these ecosystems can store carbon. This helps to stabilize the climate system.[118]

Ecosystems on land

Further information: Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity

Climate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss in different land types. These include cool conifer forests, savannas, mediterranean-climate systems, tropical forests, and the Arctic tundra.[120] In other ecosystems, land-use change may be a stronger driver of biodiversity loss, at least in the near term.[120] Beyond 2050, climate change may be the major cause of biodiversity loss globally.[120] Climate change interacts with other pressures. These include habitat modification, pollution and invasive species. Through this interaction, climate change increases the risk of extinction for many terrestrial and freshwater species.[121] At 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) of warming (around 2023[122]) some ecosystems are threatened by mass die-offs of trees and from heatwaves.[123] At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered. This differs by group. For instance insects and salamanders are more vulnerable.[11]: 259 

 
The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.[124]

Rainfall on the Amazon rainforest is recycled when it evaporates back into the atmosphere instead of running off away from the rainforest. This water is essential for sustaining the rainforest. Due to deforestation the rainforest is losing this ability. This effect is even worse because climate change brings more frequent droughts to the area. The higher frequency of droughts in the first two decades of the 21st century and other data signal that a tipping point from rainforest to savanna might be close. A 2019 study concluded that this ecosystem could begin a 50-year-long collapse to a savanna around 2021. After that it would become increasingly and disproportionally more difficult to prevent or reverse this shift.[125][126][127]

Marine ecosystems

Main articles: Effects of climate change on oceans § Impacts on marine life, Ocean acidification, and Ocean deoxygenation

Marine heatwaves are happening more often. They have widespread impacts on life in the oceans. These include mass dying events and coral bleaching.[128] Harmful algae blooms have increased. This is in response to warming waters, loss of oxygen and eutrophication.[129] Melting sea ice destroys habitat, including for algae that grows on its underside.[130]

Ocean acidification can harm marine organisms in various ways. Shell-forming organisms like oysters are particularly vulnerable. Some phytoplankton and seagrass species may benefit. However, some of these are toxic to fish phytoplankton species. Their spread poses risks to fisheries and aquaculture. Fighting pollution can reduce the impact of acidification.[131]

Warm-water coral reefs are very sensitive to global warming and ocean acidification. Coral reefs provide a habitat for thousands of species. They provide ecosystem services such as coastal protection and food. The resilience of reefs can be improved by curbing local pollution and overfishing. But 70–90% of today's warm-water coral reefs will disappear even if warming is kept to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[132] Coral reefs are framework organisms. They build physical structures that form habitats for other sea creatures. Other framework organisms are also at risk from climate change. Mangroves and seagrass are considered to be at moderate risk from lower levels of global warming.[133]

Tipping points and irreversible impacts

Main articles: Tipping points in the climate system and Abrupt climate change
 
Possible tipping elements in the climate system

Feedbacks that reinforce themselves can make climate change worse.[134] The climate system exhibits "threshold behaviour" or tipping points when these feedbacks lead parts of the Earth system into a new state. Examples are the runaway loss of ice sheets or the dieback of forests.[135][136] Tipping behaviour is found in all parts of the climate system. These include ecosystems, ice sheets, and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere.[137] Tipping points are studied using data from Earth's distant past and by physical modelling.[135] There is already moderate risk of global tipping points at 1 °C (1.8 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures. That becomes a high risk at 2.5 °C (4.5 °F).[138] It is possible that some tipping points are close or have already been crossed. Examples are the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and warm-water coral reefs.[139]

Tipping points are perhaps the most dangerous aspect of future climate change. They would to irreversible impacts on society.[140] A collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would likely halve rainfall in India. It would probably lead to severe drops in temperature in Northern Europe.[141] Many tipping points are interlinked. This means triggering one may lead to a cascade of effects.[142] This could happen even well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming.[143] A 2018 study states that 45% of environmental problems, including those caused by climate change, are interconnected. This makes the risk of a domino effect bigger.[144][145]

Further impacts may be irreversible, at least over the timescale of many human generations.[146] This includes warming of the deep ocean and acidification. These are set to continue even when global temperatures stop rising.[147] In biological systems, the extinction of species would be an irreversible impact.[146] In social systems, unique cultures may be lost.[146] Climate change could make it more likely that endangered languages disappear.[148]

Health, food security and water security

Humans have a climate niche. This is a certain range of temperatures in which they flourish. Outside that niche, conditions are less favourable. This leads to negative effects on health, food security and more. This niche is a mean annual temperature above 29ºC. As of May 2023, 60 million people lived outside this niche. With every additional 0.1 degree of warming, 140 million people will be pushed out of it.[149]

Health

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on human health.[edit]

The effects of climate change on human health are increasingly well studied and quantified.[150][151] Direct effects include heat waves and extreme weather events. Indirect effects take place through changes in the biosphere. Examples are changes in water and air quality, food security and displacement. Factors such as age, gender or socioeconomic status influence to what extent these effects become wide-spread risks to human health.[152]: 1867  Health risks are unevenly distributed across the world.[152] Disadvantaged populations are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts.[153]: 15  For example, young children and older people are the most vulnerable to extreme heat.[154]

The relationship between health and heat includes several aspects.[153] One is the exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves. Another is heat-related mortality. Reduced labour capacity for outdoor workers and impacts on mental health are others. Extreme weather events have a big impact on health. These include floods, hurricanes, droughts and wildfires. They cause injuries, diseases, and air pollution in the case of wildfires. Other indirect health impacts from climate change may be rising food insecurity, undernutrition and water insecurity.[153]

A range of climate-sensitive infectious diseases may increase in some regions. These include mosquito-borne diseases, zoonoses, cholera and some waterborne diseases.[153] Climate change will also impact where infectious diseases are likely to be able to spread in the future. Many infectious diseases will spread to new geographic areas where people do not yet have suitable immune systems.
This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on mental health.[edit]

The effects of climate change on mental health and wellbeing are documented. This is especially the case for vulnerable populations and those with pre-existing serious mental illness.[155] There are three broad pathways by which these effects can take place: directly, indirectly or via awareness.[156] The direct pathway includes stress-related conditions caused by exposure to extreme weather events. These include post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Scientific studies have linked mental health to several climate-related exposures. These include heat, humidity, rainfall, drought, wildfires and floods.[157] The indirect pathway can be disruption to economic and social activities. An example is when an area of farmland is less able to produce food.[157] The third pathway can be of mere awareness of the climate change threat, even by individuals who are not otherwise affected by it.[156]

Mental health outcomes have been measured in several studies. These use indicators such as psychiatric hospital admissions, mortality, self-harm and suicide rates. People with pre-existing mental illness, Indigenous peoples, migrants and refugees, and children and adolescents are all vulnerable. The emotional responses to the threat of climate change can include eco-anxiety, ecological grief and eco-anger.[158][159] Such emotions can be rational responses to the degradation of the natural world and lead to adaptive action.[160]

Food security

Main articles: Effects of climate change on agriculture, Climate change and fisheries, and Effects of climate change on livestock

Climate change will affect agriculture and food production around the world. The reasons include the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere. Higher temperatures and altered precipitation and transpiration regimes are also factors. Increased frequency of extreme events and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure are other factors.[161] Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture for livestock.[162] Loss and poor growth of livestock cause milk yield and meat production to decrease.[163] The rate of soil erosion is 10–20 times higher than the rate of soil accumulation in agricultural areas that use no-till farming. In areas with tilling it is 100 times higher. Climate change worsens this type of land degradation and desertification.[9]: 5 

Climate change is projected to negatively affect all four pillars of food security. It will affect how much food is available. It will also affect how easy food is to access through prices, food quality, and how stable the food system is.[164] Climate change is already affecting the productivity of wheat and other staples.[165][166]

In many areas fisheries catches are already decreasing because of global warming and changes in biochemical cycles. In combination with overfishing, warming waters decrease the amount of fish in the ocean.[3]: 12  Per degree of warming, ocean biomass is expected to decrease by about 5%. Tropical and subtropical oceans are most affected, while there may be more fish in polar waters.[167]

Water security

Water resources can be affected by climate change in various ways. The total amount of freshwater available can change, for instance due to dry spells or droughts. Heavy rainfall and flooding can have an impact on water quality. They can transport pollutants into water bodies through increased surface runoff. In coastal regions, more salt may find its way into water resources due to higher sea levels and more intense storms. Higher temperatures also directly degrade water quality. This is because warm water contains less oxygen.[168] Changes in the water cycle threaten existing and future water infrastructure. It will be harder to plan investments for water infrastructure. This is because there are significant uncertainties about future variability of the water cycle.[169]

Between 1.5 and 2.5 billion people live in areas with regular water security issues. If global warming reaches 4 °C (7.2 °F), water insecurity would affect about twice as many people.[168] Water resources are likely to decrease in most dry subtropical regions and mid-latitudes. But they will increase in high latitudes. However, variable streamflow means even regions with increased water resources can experience additional short-term shortages.[170] In the arid regions of India, China, the US and Africa dry spells and drought are already affecting water availability.[168]

Human settlement

The Arctic, Africa, small islands, Asian megadeltas and the Middle East are regions that are likely to be especially affected by climate change.[171][172] Low-latitude, less-developed regions are at most risk of experiencing negative impacts due to climate change.[13] The ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the most vulnerable in the world to the negative effects of climate change, however ASEAN's climate mitigation efforts are not in proportion to the climate change threats the region faces.[173]

Impacts from heat

Further information: Climate change and cities
 
Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat in a high emission scenario[174]

Regions inhabited by a third of the human population could become as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara within 50 years without a change in patterns of population growth and without migration, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow rapidly. The projected average temperature of above 29 °C (84 °F) for these regions would be outside the "human temperature niche" – a suggested range for climate biologically suitable for humans based on historical data of mean annual temperatures – and the most affected regions have little adaptive capacity.[175][176]

Increased extreme heat exposure from both climate change and the urban heat island effect threatens urban settlements.[177] This is made worse by the loss of shade from urban trees that cannot withstand the heat stress.[178]

In 2019, the Crowther Lab from ETH Zurich paired the climatic conditions of 520 major cities worldwide with the predicted climatic conditions of cities in 2050. 22% of the major cities are predicted to have climatic conditions that do not exist in any city today. For instance, 2050 London will have a climate similar to 2019 Melbourne in Australia, Athens and Madrid like Fez in Morocco, and Nairobi in Kenya like Maputo in Mozambique. The Indian city Pune will be like Bamako in Mali, Bamako will be like Niamey in Niger. Brasilia will be like Goiania, both in Brazil.[179][180]

Low-lying coastal regions

Further information: Effects of climate change on small island countries

Low-lying cities and other settlements near the sea face multiple simultaneous risks from climate change. Besides flooding risks from sea level rise, they may face impacts from more severe storms, ocean acidification, and salt intrusion into the groundwater. Societal changes increase the risks that these regions face, such as continued development in exposed areas.[181]

 
Floodplains and low-lying coastal areas will flood more frequently due to climate change, like this area of Myanmar which was submerged by Cyclone Nargis.

Given high coastal population density, estimates of the number of people at risk of coastal flooding from climate-driven sea level rise varies from 190 million,[182] to 300 million or even 640 million in a worst-case scenario related to the instability of the Antarctic ice sheet.[183][184] The most people affected are in the densely-populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa.[185]

Small islands developing states are especially vulnerable. They are expected to experience more intense storm surges, salt water intrusion, and coastal destruction.[186] Low-lying small islands in the Pacific, Indian, and Caribbean regions are at risk of permanent inundation and population displacement.[187][188][189] On the islands of Fiji, Tonga and western Samoa, concentrations of migrants from outer islands inhabit low and unsafe areas along the coasts.[189] Small atoll nations such as Kiribati, Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu are at risk of entire population displacement.[190][187] A loss of these island could lead to issues of statelessness.[191] Vulnerability is increased by small size, isolation from other land, low financial resources, and lack of protective infrastructure.[187]

Impacts on societies

Climate change impacts health, the availability of drinking water and food, inequality and economic growth. The effects of climate change are often interlinked and can exacerbate each other as well as existing vulnerabilities.[192][193][194] Some areas may become too hot for humans to live in.[195][196] People in some areas may be displaced within their countries or to other countries due to climate-related changes or disasters.

The effects of climate change, in combination with the sustained increases in greenhouse gas emissions, have led some scientists to call it a "climate emergency" or "climate crisis".[197][198] Some climate researchers[199][200] and activists[201] have called it an "existential threat to civilization". Some define these threats under the field of climate security. The consequences of climate change, and the failure to address it, can draw focus and resources from tackling its root causes, leading to what researchers have termed a "climate doom loop".[202]

Displacement and migration

Further information: Climate change adaptation § Added migration pressures, and Climate migrant

Climate change affects displacement of people in several ways. Firstly, involuntary displacement may increase due to more frequent and severe weather-related disasters, which destroy homes and habitats. Effects of climate change such as desertification and rising sea levels gradually erode livelihood and force communities to abandon traditional homelands. Other forms of migration are adaptive and voluntary, based on individual or household decisions.[203]: 1079  On the other hand, some households may fall (further) into poverty due to climate change, limiting their ability to move to areas less affected.[204]

Migration due to climate and weather is usually national, but long-distance. Slow-onset disasters such as droughts and heat are more likely to induce long-term migration than weather disasters like floods.[204] Migration due to desertification and reduced soil fertility is likely to be predominantly from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities.[205]: 109 

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, in 2020 approximately 30 million people were displaced by extreme weather events. In the same year, approximately 10 million were displaced by violence and wars; there may have been a contribution of climate change to these conflicts.[206][207] In 2018, the World Bank estimated that climate change will cause internal migration of between 31 and 143 million people by 2050, as they escape crop failures, water scarcity, and sea level rise. The study only included Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.[208][209]

 
Sea level rise at the Marshall Islands, reaching the edge of a village (from the documentary One Word)

Conflict

Main article: Climate security
 
Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards[174]

Climate change can worsen water conflicts and tensions over other limited resources. Climate change also has the potential to cause large population dislocations and migration, which can also lead to increased tensions.[210][211] However, factors other than climate change were judged to be substantially more important in affecting conflict over the last century. These factors include intergroup inequality and low socio-economic development.[212] In some cases, climate change can even lead to more peaceful relationships between groups, as environmental problems require common policy to be developed.[213]

Global warming has been described as a "threat multiplier".[214] Conditions in certain places make it more likely that climate change impacts conflict: ethnic exclusion, an economy dependent on agriculture, insufficient infrastructure, poor local governance, and low levels of development.[213] A spike in wheat prices following crop losses from a period of drought may have contributed to the onset of the "Arab Spring" protests and revolutions in 2010.[215][213]

Economic impacts

Main article: Economic impacts of climate change
 
Business activities affected by climate changed as found in the European Investment Bank Investment Survey 2020

Economic forecasts of the impact of global warming vary considerably, but are worse if there is only limited adaptation.[216] Economic modelling may underrate the impact of potentially catastrophic climatic changes. When estimating losses, economists choose a discount rate which determines how much one prefers to have a good or cash now compared to at a future date. Choosing a high discount rate may understate economic losses, as losses for future generations weigh less heavily.[217]

Total economic impacts increase for higher temperature rise.[218] For instance, total damages are estimated to be 90% less if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) compared to 3.66 °C (6.59 °F), a warming level chosen to represent no mitigation.[219] One study found a 3.5% reduction in global GDP by the end of the century if warming is limited to 3 °C (5.4 °F), excluding the potential effect of tipping points. Another study noted that global economic impact is underestimated by a factor of two to eight when tipping points are excluded from consideration.[219] In a study on a high-emission scenario, a temperature rise of 2 °C (3.6 °F) by 2050 would reduce global GDP by 2.5%–7.5%. By 2100 in this scenario the temperature would rise by 4 °C (7.2 °F), which could reduce the global GDP by 30% in the worst case.[220]

Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather events since the 1970s.[221] Socio-economic factors have contributed to the observed trend of global losses, such as population growth and increased wealth.[222] Part of the growth is also related to regional climatic factors, such as changes in precipitation and flooding events. It is difficult to quantify the relative impact of socio-economic factors and climate change on the observed trend.[223] The trend does, however, suggest increasing vulnerability of social systems to climate change.[223]

Economic inequality

 
Rich nations have done the most to fuel climate change.[224]

Climate change has contributed towards global economic inequality. Wealthy countries in colder regions have either felt little overall economic impact from climate change, or possibly benefited, whereas poor hotter countries very likely grew less than if global warming had not occurred.[225][226]

Highly affected sectors

Economic sectors directly affected by weather are more impacted by climate change than other sectors.[227] For instance, the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors are all heavily affected,[228] but also the tourism and energy sectors.[227] Agriculture and forestry have suffered economic losses due to droughts and extreme heat, for instance in Europe.[229] If global warming surpasses 1.5 degrees, there may be limits to adaptation for existing tourism and for outdoor work.[230]

In the energy sector, thermal power plants depend on water to cool them. Climate change can increase the likelihood of drought and fresh water shortages. In addition, higher operating temperatures reduces their efficiency and hence their output.[231] Hydropower is affected by changes in the water cycle such as river flows. The result of diminished river flow can be a power shortage in areas that depend heavily on hydroelectric power. Brazil in particular, is vulnerable due to its reliance on hydroelectricity, as rising temperatures, lower water flow, and alterations in rainfall, could reduce total energy production by 7% annually by the end of the century.[231] Oil and natural gas infrastructure is affected by climate change and the increased risk of disasters such as storms, cyclones, flooding and rising sea levels.[232]

The insurance and financial services sectors are impacted by global warming.[233] Insurance is an important tool to manage risks, but often unavailable to poorer households. Due to climate change, premiums are going up for certain types of insurance, such as flood insurance. Poor adaptation to climate change further widens the gap between what people can afford and the costs of insurance, as risks increase.[234] In 2019, Munich Re noted that climate change could cause home insurance to become unaffordable for households at or below average incomes.[235]

Social impacts on vulnerable groups

Climate change does not impact people within communities in the same way. Vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, religious minorities and refugees may be more impacted by climate change than others.[236]

  • People living in poverty: Climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low-income communities and developing countries around the world. Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change, due to their increased exposure and vulnerability.[237] A 2020 World Bank paper estimated that between 32 million to 132 million additional people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change.[238]
  • Women: Climate change increases gender inequality,[239] reduces women's ability to be financially independent,[240] and has an overall negative impact on the social and political rights of women, especially in economies that are heavily based on agriculture.[239]
  • Indigenous peoples: Indigenous communities tend to rely more on the environment for food and other necessities, which makes them more vulnerable to disturbances in ecosystems.[241] Indigenous communities across the globe generally have economic disadvantages that are not as prevalent in non-indigenous communities, due to the oppression they have experienced. These disadvantages include less access to education and jobs and higher rates of poverty, which add to their vulnerability to climate change.[242]
  • Children: The Lancet review on health and climate change lists children among the worst-affected by global warming.[243] Children are 14–44 percent more likely to die from environmental factors.[244]

Possibility of societal collapse

Further information: Global catastrophe scenarios § Climate change, and Climate apocalypse

Climate change has long been described as a severe risk to humans. Climate change as an existential threat has emerged as a key theme in the climate movement discourse; the theme is also used by people from Small Island Nations. The topic has not been researched extensively. The research community on existential risks typically defines existential risks as threats that could cause the extinction of humanity or destroy the potential of intelligent life on Earth.[245] Key risks of climate change do not fit that definition. However, some key climate risks do impact survivability. For instance, areas may become too hot to survive, or sea level rise makes it impossible to live at a specific location.[246][247][245]

This section is an excerpt from Climate apocalypse § Apocalyptic impacts of climate change and ecological breakdown.[edit]
Severe impacts of climate change can combine, including with climate-unrelated, concurrent risks such as worldwide pollution, fragility, resource depletion, political disenchantment, poverty or wealth inequality, and biotechnology risk, to result in a confluence of developments that cause a drastically aggravated impact on societies or humanity – such multiple concurrent crises are sometimes referred to as a "perfect storm".[248][249] Climate change may also be considered as a threat multiplier "which exacerbates existing trends, tensions, and instability".[250] Climate-related factors of a potential collapse may include famine (crop loss, drought), extreme weather (hurricanes, floods), war ([co-]caused by scarce resources) and conflict, systemic risk (relating to migration, famine, or conflict), and disease.[174]

See also

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August 28, 2023
effects, climate, change, effects, changes, climate, prior, current, period, global, warming, historical, climatology, climate, change, affects, physical, environment, ecosystems, human, societies, changes, climate, system, include, overall, warming, trend, mo. For effects of changes in climate prior to the current period of global warming see Historical climatology Climate change affects the physical environment ecosystems and human societies Changes in the climate system include an overall warming trend more extreme weather and rising sea levels These in turn impact nature and wildlife as well as human settlements and societies 5 The effects of human caused climate change are broad and far reaching especially if significant climate action is not taken The projected and observed negative impacts of climate change are sometimes referred to as the climate crisis Some climate change effects clockwise from top left Wildfire caused by heat and dryness bleached coral caused by ocean acidification and heating coastal flooding caused by storms and sea level rise and environmental migration caused by desertification The primary causes 1 and the wide ranging impacts 2 3 3 36 of climate change Some effects act as feedbacks that intensify climate change 4 The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth In particular most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas and the Arctic is warming faster than most other regions 6 Among the effects of climate change on oceans are an increase of ocean temperatures a rise in sea level from ocean warming and ice sheet melting increased ocean stratification and changes to ocean currents including a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 3 10 Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is acidifiying the ocean 7 Recent warming has strongly affected natural biological systems 8 It has degraded land by raising temperatures drying soils and increasing wildfire risk 9 9 Species worldwide are migrating poleward to colder areas On land many species move to higher ground whereas marine species seek colder water at greater depths 10 At 2 C 3 6 F of warming around 10 of species on land would become critically endangered 11 259 Food security and access to fresh water are at risk due to rising temperatures Climate change has profound impacts on human health directly via heat stress and indirectly via the spread of infectious diseases The vulnerability and exposure of humans to climate change varies by economic sector and by country Wealthy industrialised countries which have emitted the most CO2 have more resources and so are the least vulnerable to global warming 12 Economic sectors affected include agriculture fisheries forestry energy insurance and tourism Some groups may be particularly at risk from climate change such as the poor women children and indigenous peoples 13 14 Climate change can lead to displacement and changes in migration flows 15 Contents 1 Changes in temperature 2 Weather 2 1 Heat waves and temperature extremes 2 2 Rain 2 3 Extreme storms 3 Impacts on land 3 1 Floods 3 2 Droughts 3 3 Wildfires 4 Oceans 4 1 Sea level rise 5 Ice and snow 5 1 Glaciers and ice sheets decline 5 2 Sea ice decline 5 3 Permafrost thawing 6 Wildlife and nature 6 1 Ecosystems on land 6 2 Marine ecosystems 7 Tipping points and irreversible impacts 8 Health food security and water security 8 1 Health 8 2 Food security 8 3 Water security 9 Human settlement 9 1 Impacts from heat 9 2 Low lying coastal regions 10 Impacts on societies 10 1 Displacement and migration 10 2 Conflict 10 3 Economic impacts 10 3 1 Economic inequality 10 3 2 Highly affected sectors 10 4 Social impacts on vulnerable groups 10 5 Possibility of societal collapse 11 See also 12 References 12 1 Sources 13 External linksChanges in temperatureFurther information Global surface temperature Instrumental temperature record and Heat wave Average surface air temperatures from 2011 to 2021 compared to the 1956 1976 average Source NASAGlobal warming affects all parts of Earth s climate system 16 Global surface temperatures have risen by 1 1 C 2 0 F Scientists say they will rise further in the future 17 18 The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth In particular most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions 6 Night time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures 19 The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms 20 Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human caused climate change One is to investigate past natural changes in climate 21 To assess changes in Earth s past climate scientists have studied tree rings ice cores corals and ocean and lake sediments 22 These show that recent temperatures have surpassed anything in the last 2 000 years 23 By the end of the 21st century temperatures may increase to a level last seen in the mid Pliocene This was around 3 million years ago 24 At that time mean global temperatures were about 2 4 C 3 6 7 2 F warmer than pre industrial temperatures The global mean sea level was up to 25 meters higher than it is today 25 The modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 concentrations has been rapid even abrupt geophysical events in Earth s history do not approach current rates 26 Projected temperature and sea level rise relative to the 2000 2019 mean for RCP climate change scenarios up to 2500 27 28 How much the world warms depends on human greenhouse gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases 29 The more carbon dioxide CO2 is emitted in the 21st century the hotter the world will be by 2100 For a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations the global mean temperature would rise by about 2 5 4 C 4 5 7 2 F 30 What would happen if emissions of CO2 stopped abruptly and there was no use of negative emission technologies The Earth s climate would not start moving back to its pre industrial state Temperatures would stay at the same high level for several centuries After about a thousand years 20 to 30 of human emitted CO2 would remain in the atmosphere The ocean and land would not have taken them This would commit the climate to a warmer state long after emissions have stopped 31 With current mitigation policies the temperature will be about 2 7 C 2 0 3 6 C above pre industrial levels by 2100 It would rise to 2 4 C 4 3 F if governments achieve all unconditional pledges and targets they have made If all the countries that have set or are considering net zero targets achieve them the temperature will rise by around 1 8 C 3 2 F There is a big gap between national plans and commitments and the actions that governments have taken around the world 32 WeatherThe lower and middle atmosphere where nearly all weather occurs are heating due to the greenhouse effect 33 Evaporation and atmospheric moisture content increase as temperatures rise 34 Water vapour is a greenhouse gas so this process is a self reinforcing feedback 35 The excess water vapour also gets caught up in storms This makes them more intense larger and potentially longer lasting This in turn causes rain and snow events to become stronger and leads to increased risk of flooding Extra drying worsens natural dry spells and droughts This increases risk of heat waves and wildfires 34 Scientists have identified human activities as the cause of recent climate trends They are now able to estimate the impact of climate change on extreme weather events They call this process extreme event attribution For instance such research can look at historical data for a region and conclude that a specific heat wave was more intense due to climate change 36 Heat waves and temperature extremes See also Heat wave New high temperature records have outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth s surface 37 Large increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events for increasing degrees of global warming are expected 38 18 Map of increasing heatwave trends frequency and cumulative intensity over the midlatitudes and Europe July August 1979 2020 39 Heatwaves over land have become more frequent and more intense in almost all world regions since the 1950s due to climate change Heat waves are more likely to occur simultaneously with droughts Marine heatwaves are twice as likely as they were in 1980 40 Climate change will lead to more very hot days and fewer very cold days 41 7 There are fewer cold waves 38 8 Experts can often attribute the intensity of individual heat waves to global warming Some extreme events would have been nearly impossible without human influence on the climate system A heatwave that would occur once every ten years before global warming started now occurs 2 8 times as often Under further warming heatwaves are set to become more frequent An event that would occur every ten years would occur every other year if global warming reaches 2 C 3 6 F 42 Heat stress is related to temperature It also increases if humidity is higher The wet bulb temperature measures both temperature and humidity Humans cannot adapt to a wet bulb temperature above 35 C 95 F This heat stress can kill people If global warming is kept below 1 5 or 2 C 2 7 or 3 6 F it will probably be possible to avoid this deadly heat and humidity in most of the tropics But there may still be negative health impacts 43 44 There is some evidence climate change is leading to a weakening of the polar vortex This would make the jet stream more wavy 45 This would lead to outbursts of very cold winter weather across parts of Eurasia 46 and North America and incursions of very warm air into the Arctic 47 48 49 Rain Main article Effects of climate change on the water cycleWarming increases global average precipitation Precipitation is when water vapour condenses out of clouds such as rain and snow 50 1057 Higher temperatures increase evaporation and surface drying As the air warms it can hold more water For every degree Celsius it can hold 7 more water vapour 50 1057 Scientists have observed changes in the amount intensity frequency and type of precipitation 51 Overall climate change is causing longer hot dry spells broken by more intense rainfall 52 151 154 Climate change has increased contrasts in rainfall amounts between wet and dry seasons Wet seasons are getting wetter and dry seasons are getting drier In the northern high latitudes warming has also caused an increase in the amount of snow and rain 50 1057 In the Southern Hemisphere the rain associated with the storm tracks has shifted south Changes in monsoons vary a lot More monsoon systems are becoming wetter than drier In Asia summer monsoons are getting wetter The West African monsoon is getting wetter over the central Sahel and drier in the far western Sahel 50 1058 Extreme storms New Orleans submerged after Hurricane Katrina September 2005Storms become wetter under climate change These include tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones Both the maximum and mean rainfall rates increase This more extreme rainfall is also true for thunderstorms in some regions 53 Furthermore tropical cyclones and storm tracks are moving towards the poles This means some regions will see large changes in maximum wind speeds 53 54 Scientists expect there will be fewer tropical cyclones But they expect their strength to increase 54 There has probably been an increase in the number of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly 53 Impacts on landFloods High tide flooding is increasing due to sea level rise land subsidence and the loss of natural barriers 55 Long term sea level rise occurs in addition to intermittent tidal flooding NOAA predicts different levels of sea level rise for coastlines within a single country 56 Due to an increase in heavy rainfall events floods are likely to become more severe when they do occur 50 1155 The interactions between rainfall and flooding are complex There are some regions in which flooding is expected to become rarer This depends on several factors These include changes in rain and snowmelt but also soil moisture 50 1156 Climate change leaves soils drier in some areas so they may absorb rainfall more quickly This leads to less flooding Dry soils can also become harder In this case heavy rainfall runs off into rivers and lakes This increases risks of flooding 50 1155 Droughts A dry lakebed in California In 2022 the state was experiencing its most serious drought in 1 200 years worsened by climate change 57 Climate change affects many factors associated with droughts These include how much rain falls and how fast the rain evaporates again Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world 58 50 1057 In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world there will probably be less rain due to global warming This will make them more prone to drought Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world These include Central America the Amazon and south western South America They also include West and Southern Africa The Mediterranean and south western Australia are also some of these regions 50 1157 Higher temperatures increase evaporation This dries the soil and increases plant stress Agriculture suffers as a result This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts 50 1157 These regions include central and northern Europe Without climate change mitigation around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100 50 1157 Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past 59 Several impacts make their impacts worse These are increased water demand population growth and urban expansion in many areas 60 Land restoration can help reduce the impact of droughts One example of this is agroforestry 61 Wildfires Further information Wildfire Climate change effects Average U S acreage burned annually by wildfires has almost tripled in three decades 62 Climate change promotes the type of weather that makes wildfires more likely In some areas an increase of wildfires has been attributed directly to climate change Evidence from Earth s past also shows more fire in warmer periods 63 Climate change increases evaporation This can cause vegetation to dry out When a fire starts in an area with very dry vegetation it can spread rapidly Higher temperatures can also lengthen the fire season This is the time of year in which severe wildfires are most likely particularly in regions where snow is disappearing 64 Weather conditions are raising the risks of wildfires But the total area burnt by wildfires has decreased This is mostly because savanna has been converted to cropland so there are fewer trees to burn Prescribed burning isan indigenous practice in the US and Australia It can reduce wildfire burning 64 The carbon released from wildfires can add to greenhouse gas concentrations Climate models do not yet full reflect this feedback 38 20 Oceans Oceans have taken up almost 90 of the excess heat accumulated on Earth due to global warming 65 Part of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia in 2016 after a coral bleaching eventThis section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on oceans edit There are many effects of climate change on oceans One of the main ones is an increase inocean temperatures More frequent marine heatwaves are linked to this The rising temperature contributes to a rise in sea levels Other effects include ocean acidification sea ice decline increased ocean stratification and reductions in oxygen levels Changes to ocean currents including a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are another important effect 66 All these changes have knock on effects which disturb marine ecosystems The main cause of these changes is climate change due to human emissions of greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide and methane are examples of greenhouse gases This leads to ocean warming because the ocean takes up most of the additional heat in the climate system 67 The ocean absorbs some of the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere This causes the pH value of the ocean to drop 68 Scientists estimate that the ocean absorbs about 25 of all human caused CO2 emissions 68 Ocean temperature stratification is the difference in temperature between the various layers of the ocean It increases as the ocean surface warms due to rising air temperatures 69 471 The decline in mixing of the ocean layers stabilizes warm water near the surface It also reduces cold deep water circulation The reduced vertical mixing makes it harder for the ocean to absorb heat So a larger share of future warming goes into the atmosphere and land One result is an increase in the amount of energy available for tropical cyclones and other storms Another result is a decrease in nutrients for fish in the upper ocean layers These changes also reduce the ocean s capacity to store carbon 70 At the same time contrasts in salinity are increasing Salty areas are becoming saltier and fresher areas less salty 71 Warmer water cannot contain the same amount of oxygen as cold water As a result oxygen from the oceans moves to the atmosphere Increased thermal stratification may reduce the supply of oxygen from surface waters to deeper waters This lowers the water s oxygen content even more 72 The ocean has already lost oxygen throughout its water column Oxygen minimum zones are expanding worldwide 69 471 Sea level rise This section is an excerpt from Sea level rise edit Global sea level rise from 1880 onwards the values are shown as change in sea level in millimeters compared to the 1993 2008 average 73 Between 1901 and 2018 the average global sea level rose by 15 25 cm 6 10 in or an average of 1 2 mm per year 74 This rate accelerated to 4 62 mm yr for the decade 2013 2022 75 Climate change due to human activities is the main cause Between 1993 and 2018 thermal expansion of water accounted for 42 of sea level rise Melting temperate glaciers accounted for 21 with Greenland accounting for 15 and Antarctica 8 76 1576 Sea level rise lags changes in the Earth s temperature So sea level rise will continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that is already happening 77 What happens after that will depend on what happens with human greenhouse gas emissions Sea level rise may slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are deep cuts in emissions It could then reach a little over 30 cm 1 ft from now by 2100 With high emissions it may accelerate It could rise by 1 m 3 1 2 ft or even 2 m 6 1 2 ft by then 78 79 In the long run sea level rise would amount to 2 3 m 7 10 ft over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1 5 C 2 7 F It would be 19 22 metres 62 72 ft if warming peaks at 5 C 9 0 F 78 21 Rising seas ultimately impact every coastal and island population on Earth 80 81 This can be through flooding higher storm surges king tides and tsunamis These have many knock on effects They lead to loss of coastal ecosystems like mangroves Crop production falls because of salinization of irrigation water And damage to ports disrupts sea trade 82 83 84 The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the century 85 Areas not directly exposed to rising sea levels could be affected by large scale migrations and economic disruption Ice and snowSee also Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017 with melting grounded ice ice sheets and glaciers raising the global sea level by 34 6 3 1 mm 86 The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 since the 1990s from 0 8 to 1 2 trillion tonnes per year 86 Melting of glacial mass is approximately linearly related to temperature rise 87 Shrinkage of snow cover duration in the Alps starting ca end of the 19th century highlighting climate change adaptation needs 88 The cryosphere the area of the Earth covered by snow or ice is extremely sensitive to changes in global climate 89 There has been an extensive loss of snow on land since 1981 Some of the largest declines have been observed in the spring 90 During the 21st century snow cover is projected to continue its retreat in almost all regions 91 Glaciers and ice sheets decline Further information Retreat of glaciers since 1850 Since the beginning of the twentieth century there has been a widespread retreat of glaciers 92 1215 Those glaciers that are not associated with the polar ice sheets lost around 8 of their mass between 1971 and 2019 92 1275 In the Andes in South America and in the Himalayas in Asia the retreat of glaciers could impact water supply 93 94 The melting of those glaciers could also cause landslides or glacial lake outburst floods 95 The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will continue to contribute to sea level rise over long time scales The Greenland ice sheet loss is mainly driven by melt from the top Antarctic ice loss is driven by warm ocean water melting the outlet glaciers 92 1215 Future melt of the West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially abrupt under a high emission scenario as a consequence of a partial collapse 96 Part of the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock below sea level This makes it possibly vulnerable to the self enhancing process of marine ice sheet instability Marine ice cliff instability could also contribute to a partial collapse But there is limited evidence for its importance 92 1269 1270 A partial collapse of the ice sheet would lead to rapid sea level rise and a local decrease in ocean salinity It would be irreversible for decades and possibly even millennia 96 The complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet would cause over 5 metres 16 ft of sea level rise 97 In contrast to the West Antarctic ice sheet melt of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to take place more gradually over millennia 96 Sustained warming between 1 C 1 8 F low confidence and 4 C 7 2 F medium confidence would lead to a complete loss of the ice sheet This would contribute 7 m 23 ft to sea levels globally 98 The ice loss could become irreversible due to a further self enhancing feedback This is called the elevation surface mass balance feedback When ice melts on top of the ice sheet the elevation drops Air temperature is higher at lower altitudes so this promotes further melting 99 Sea ice decline Further information Arctic sea ice decline and Antarctic sea ice Recent trends and climate change Sea ice reflects 50 to 70 of the incoming solar radiation back into space Only 6 of incoming solar energy is reflected by the ocean 100 As the climate warms the area covered by snow or sea ice decreases After sea ice melts more energy is absorbed by the ocean so it warms up This ice albedo feedback is a self reinforcing feedback of climate change 101 Large scale measurements of sea ice have only been possible since we have been using satellites 102 Sea ice in the Arctic has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty first century It has a rate of decline of 4 7 per decade It has declined over 50 since the first satellite records 103 104 105 Ice free summers are expected to be rare at 1 5 C 2 7 F degrees of warming They are set to occur at least once every decade with a warming level of 2 C 3 6 F 106 The Arctic will likely become ice free at the end of some summers before 2050 92 9 Sea ice extent in Antarctica varies a lot year by year This makes it difficult to determine a trend and record highs and record lows have been observed between 2013 and 2023 The general trend since 1979 the start of the satellite measurements has been roughly flat Between 2015 and 2023 there has been a decline in sea ice but due to the high variability this does not correspond to a significant trend 107 Permafrost thawing Further information Permafrost Impacts of climate change and Climate change in Russia Permafrost Globally permafrost warmed by about 0 3 C between 2007 and 2016 The extent of permafrost has been falling for decades More decline is expected in the future 92 1280 Permafrost thaw makes the ground weaker and unstable The thaw can seriously damage human infrastructure in permafrost areas such as railways settlements and pipelines 108 236 Thawing soil can also release methane and CO2 from decomposing microbes This can generate a strong feedback loop to global warming 109 110 Some scientists believe that carbon storage in permafrost globally is approximately 1600 gigatons This is twice the atmospheric pool 111 Wildlife and natureMain article Effects of climate change on ecosystems See also Extinction risk from climate changeRecent warming has had a big effect on natural biological systems 8 Species worldwide are moving poleward to colder areas On land species may move to higher elevations Marine species find colder water at greater depths 10 Climate change had the third biggest impact on nature out of various factors in the five decades up to 2020 Only change in land use and sea use and direct exploitation of organisms had a bigger impact 112 The impacts of climate change on nature are likely to become bigger in the next few decades 113 The stresses caused by climate change combine with other stresses on ecological systems such as land conversion land degradation harvesting and pollution They threaten substantial damage to unique ecosystems They can even result in their complete loss and the extinction of species 114 115 This can disrupt key interactions between species within ecosystems This is because species from one location do not leave the warming habitat at the same rate The result is rapid changes in the way the ecosystem functions 10 Impacts include changes in regional rainfall patterns Another is earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions Movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes 116 changes in bird migrations and shifting of the oceans plankton and fish from cold to warm adapted communities are other impacts 117 These changes of land and ocean ecosystems have direct effects on human well being 118 119 For instance ocean ecosystems help with coastal protection and provide food 119 Freshwater and land ecosystems can provide water for human consumption Furthermore these ecosystems can store carbon This helps to stabilize the climate system 118 Ecosystems on land Further information Effects of climate change on plant biodiversityClimate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss in different land types These include cool conifer forests savannas mediterranean climate systems tropical forests and the Arctic tundra 120 In other ecosystems land use change may be a stronger driver of biodiversity loss at least in the near term 120 Beyond 2050 climate change may be the major cause of biodiversity loss globally 120 Climate change interacts with other pressures These include habitat modification pollution and invasive species Through this interaction climate change increases the risk of extinction for many terrestrial and freshwater species 121 At 1 2 C 2 2 F of warming around 2023 122 some ecosystems are threatened by mass die offs of trees and from heatwaves 123 At 2 C 3 6 F of warming around 10 of species on land would become critically endangered This differs by group For instance insects and salamanders are more vulnerable 11 259 The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001 to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy 124 Rainfall on the Amazon rainforest is recycled when it evaporates back into the atmosphere instead of running off away from the rainforest This water is essential for sustaining the rainforest Due to deforestation the rainforest is losing this ability This effect is even worse because climate change brings more frequent droughts to the area The higher frequency of droughts in the first two decades of the 21st century and other data signal that a tipping point from rainforest to savanna might be close A 2019 study concluded that this ecosystem could begin a 50 year long collapse to a savanna around 2021 After that it would become increasingly and disproportionally more difficult to prevent or reverse this shift 125 126 127 Marine ecosystems Main articles Effects of climate change on oceans Impacts on marine life Ocean acidification and Ocean deoxygenation Marine heatwaves are happening more often They have widespread impacts on life in the oceans These include mass dying events and coral bleaching 128 Harmful algae blooms have increased This is in response to warming waters loss of oxygen and eutrophication 129 Melting sea ice destroys habitat including for algae that grows on its underside 130 Ocean acidification can harm marine organisms in various ways Shell forming organisms like oysters are particularly vulnerable Some phytoplankton and seagrass species may benefit However some of these are toxic to fish phytoplankton species Their spread poses risks to fisheries and aquaculture Fighting pollution can reduce the impact of acidification 131 Warm water coral reefs are very sensitive to global warming and ocean acidification Coral reefs provide a habitat for thousands of species They provide ecosystem services such as coastal protection and food The resilience of reefs can be improved by curbing local pollution and overfishing But 70 90 of today s warm water coral reefs will disappear even if warming is kept to 1 5 C 2 7 F 132 Coral reefs are framework organisms They build physical structures that form habitats for other sea creatures Other framework organisms are also at risk from climate change Mangroves and seagrass are considered to be at moderate risk from lower levels of global warming 133 Tipping points and irreversible impactsMain articles Tipping points in the climate system and Abrupt climate change Possible tipping elements in the climate systemFeedbacks that reinforce themselves can make climate change worse 134 The climate system exhibits threshold behaviour or tipping points when these feedbacks lead parts of the Earth system into a new state Examples are the runaway loss of ice sheets or the dieback of forests 135 136 Tipping behaviour is found in all parts of the climate system These include ecosystems ice sheets and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere 137 Tipping points are studied using data from Earth s distant past and by physical modelling 135 There is already moderate risk of global tipping points at 1 C 1 8 F above pre industrial temperatures That becomes a high risk at 2 5 C 4 5 F 138 It is possible that some tipping points are close or have already been crossed Examples are the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets the Amazon rainforest and warm water coral reefs 139 Tipping points are perhaps the most dangerous aspect of future climate change They would to irreversible impacts on society 140 A collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would likely halve rainfall in India It would probably lead to severe drops in temperature in Northern Europe 141 Many tipping points are interlinked This means triggering one may lead to a cascade of effects 142 This could happen even well below 2 C 3 6 F of warming 143 A 2018 study states that 45 of environmental problems including those caused by climate change are interconnected This makes the risk of a domino effect bigger 144 145 Further impacts may be irreversible at least over the timescale of many human generations 146 This includes warming of the deep ocean and acidification These are set to continue even when global temperatures stop rising 147 In biological systems the extinction of species would be an irreversible impact 146 In social systems unique cultures may be lost 146 Climate change could make it more likely that endangered languages disappear 148 Health food security and water securityHumans have a climate niche This is a certain range of temperatures in which they flourish Outside that niche conditions are less favourable This leads to negative effects on health food security and more This niche is a mean annual temperature above 29ºC As of May 2023 60 million people lived outside this niche With every additional 0 1 degree of warming 140 million people will be pushed out of it 149 Health This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on human health edit The effects of climate change on human health are increasingly well studied and quantified 150 151 Direct effects include heat waves and extreme weather events Indirect effects take place through changes in the biosphere Examples are changes in water and air quality food security and displacement Factors such as age gender or socioeconomic status influence to what extent these effects become wide spread risks to human health 152 1867 Health risks are unevenly distributed across the world 152 Disadvantaged populations are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts 153 15 For example young children and older people are the most vulnerable to extreme heat 154 The relationship between health and heat includes several aspects 153 One is the exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves Another is heat related mortality Reduced labour capacity for outdoor workers and impacts on mental health are others Extreme weather events have a big impact on health These include floods hurricanes droughts and wildfires They cause injuries diseases and air pollution in the case of wildfires Other indirect health impacts from climate change may be rising food insecurity undernutrition and water insecurity 153 A range of climate sensitive infectious diseases may increase in some regions These include mosquito borne diseases zoonoses cholera and some waterborne diseases 153 Climate change will also impact where infectious diseases are likely to be able to spread in the future Many infectious diseases will spread to new geographic areas where people do not yet have suitable immune systems This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on mental health edit The effects of climate change on mental health and wellbeing are documented This is especially the case for vulnerable populations and those with pre existing serious mental illness 155 There are three broad pathways by which these effects can take place directly indirectly or via awareness 156 The direct pathway includes stress related conditions caused by exposure to extreme weather events These include post traumatic stress disorder PTSD Scientific studies have linked mental health to several climate related exposures These include heat humidity rainfall drought wildfires and floods 157 The indirect pathway can be disruption to economic and social activities An example is when an area of farmland is less able to produce food 157 The third pathway can be of mere awareness of the climate change threat even by individuals who are not otherwise affected by it 156 Mental health outcomes have been measured in several studies These use indicators such as psychiatric hospital admissions mortality self harm and suicide rates People with pre existing mental illness Indigenous peoples migrants and refugees and children and adolescents are all vulnerable The emotional responses to the threat of climate change can include eco anxiety ecological grief and eco anger 158 159 Such emotions can be rational responses to the degradation of the natural world and lead to adaptive action 160 Food security Main articles Effects of climate change on agriculture Climate change and fisheries and Effects of climate change on livestock Climate change will affect agriculture and food production around the world The reasons include the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere Higher temperatures and altered precipitation and transpiration regimes are also factors Increased frequency of extreme events and modified weed pest and pathogen pressure are other factors 161 Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture for livestock 162 Loss and poor growth of livestock cause milk yield and meat production to decrease 163 The rate of soil erosion is 10 20 times higher than the rate of soil accumulation in agricultural areas that use no till farming In areas with tilling it is 100 times higher Climate change worsens this type of land degradation and desertification 9 5 Climate change is projected to negatively affect all four pillars of food security It will affect how much food is available It will also affect how easy food is to access through prices food quality and how stable the food system is 164 Climate change is already affecting the productivity of wheat and other staples 165 166 In many areas fisheries catches are already decreasing because of global warming and changes in biochemical cycles In combination with overfishing warming waters decrease the amount of fish in the ocean 3 12 Per degree of warming ocean biomass is expected to decrease by about 5 Tropical and subtropical oceans are most affected while there may be more fish in polar waters 167 Water security Water resources can be affected by climate change in various ways The total amount of freshwater available can change for instance due to dry spells or droughts Heavy rainfall and flooding can have an impact on water quality They can transport pollutants into water bodies through increased surface runoff In coastal regions more salt may find its way into water resources due to higher sea levels and more intense storms Higher temperatures also directly degrade water quality This is because warm water contains less oxygen 168 Changes in the water cycle threaten existing and future water infrastructure It will be harder to plan investments for water infrastructure This is because there are significant uncertainties about future variability of the water cycle 169 Between 1 5 and 2 5 billion people live in areas with regular water security issues If global warming reaches 4 C 7 2 F water insecurity would affect about twice as many people 168 Water resources are likely to decrease in most dry subtropical regions and mid latitudes But they will increase in high latitudes However variable streamflow means even regions with increased water resources can experience additional short term shortages 170 In the arid regions of India China the US and Africa dry spells and drought are already affecting water availability 168 Human settlementThe Arctic Africa small islands Asian megadeltas and the Middle East are regions that are likely to be especially affected by climate change 171 172 Low latitude less developed regions are at most risk of experiencing negative impacts due to climate change 13 The ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN are among the most vulnerable in the world to the negative effects of climate change however ASEAN s climate mitigation efforts are not in proportion to the climate change threats the region faces 173 Impacts from heat Further information Climate change and cities Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat in a high emission scenario 174 Regions inhabited by a third of the human population could become as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara within 50 years without a change in patterns of population growth and without migration if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow rapidly The projected average temperature of above 29 C 84 F for these regions would be outside the human temperature niche a suggested range for climate biologically suitable for humans based on historical data of mean annual temperatures and the most affected regions have little adaptive capacity 175 176 Increased extreme heat exposure from both climate change and the urban heat island effect threatens urban settlements 177 This is made worse by the loss of shade from urban trees that cannot withstand the heat stress 178 In 2019 the Crowther Lab from ETH Zurich paired the climatic conditions of 520 major cities worldwide with the predicted climatic conditions of cities in 2050 22 of the major cities are predicted to have climatic conditions that do not exist in any city today For instance 2050 London will have a climate similar to 2019 Melbourne in Australia Athens and Madrid like Fez in Morocco and Nairobi in Kenya like Maputo in Mozambique The Indian city Pune will be like Bamako in Mali Bamako will be like Niamey in Niger Brasilia will be like Goiania both in Brazil 179 180 Low lying coastal regions Further information Effects of climate change on small island countriesLow lying cities and other settlements near the sea face multiple simultaneous risks from climate change Besides flooding risks from sea level rise they may face impacts from more severe storms ocean acidification and salt intrusion into the groundwater Societal changes increase the risks that these regions face such as continued development in exposed areas 181 Floodplains and low lying coastal areas will flood more frequently due to climate change like this area of Myanmar which was submerged by Cyclone Nargis Given high coastal population density estimates of the number of people at risk of coastal flooding from climate driven sea level rise varies from 190 million 182 to 300 million or even 640 million in a worst case scenario related to the instability of the Antarctic ice sheet 183 184 The most people affected are in the densely populated and low lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa 185 Small islands developing states are especially vulnerable They are expected to experience more intense storm surges salt water intrusion and coastal destruction 186 Low lying small islands in the Pacific Indian and Caribbean regions are at risk of permanent inundation and population displacement 187 188 189 On the islands of Fiji Tonga and western Samoa concentrations of migrants from outer islands inhabit low and unsafe areas along the coasts 189 Small atoll nations such as Kiribati Maldives the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu are at risk of entire population displacement 190 187 A loss of these island could lead to issues of statelessness 191 Vulnerability is increased by small size isolation from other land low financial resources and lack of protective infrastructure 187 Impacts on societiesClimate change impacts health the availability of drinking water and food inequality and economic growth The effects of climate change are often interlinked and can exacerbate each other as well as existing vulnerabilities 192 193 194 Some areas may become too hot for humans to live in 195 196 People in some areas may be displaced within their countries or to other countries due to climate related changes or disasters The effects of climate change in combination with the sustained increases in greenhouse gas emissions have led some scientists to call it a climate emergency or climate crisis 197 198 Some climate researchers 199 200 and activists 201 have called it an existential threat to civilization Some define these threats under the field of climate security The consequences of climate change and the failure to address it can draw focus and resources from tackling its root causes leading to what researchers have termed a climate doom loop 202 Displacement and migration Further information Climate change adaptation Added migration pressures and Climate migrant Climate change affects displacement of people in several ways Firstly involuntary displacement may increase due to more frequent and severe weather related disasters which destroy homes and habitats Effects of climate change such as desertification and rising sea levels gradually erode livelihood and force communities to abandon traditional homelands Other forms of migration are adaptive and voluntary based on individual or household decisions 203 1079 On the other hand some households may fall further into poverty due to climate change limiting their ability to move to areas less affected 204 Migration due to climate and weather is usually national but long distance Slow onset disasters such as droughts and heat are more likely to induce long term migration than weather disasters like floods 204 Migration due to desertification and reduced soil fertility is likely to be predominantly from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities 205 109 According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre in 2020 approximately 30 million people were displaced by extreme weather events In the same year approximately 10 million were displaced by violence and wars there may have been a contribution of climate change to these conflicts 206 207 In 2018 the World Bank estimated that climate change will cause internal migration of between 31 and 143 million people by 2050 as they escape crop failures water scarcity and sea level rise The study only included Sub Saharan Africa South Asia and Latin America 208 209 Sea level rise at the Marshall Islands reaching the edge of a village from the documentary One Word Conflict Main article Climate security Overlap between state fragility extreme heat and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards 174 Climate change can worsen water conflicts and tensions over other limited resources Climate change also has the potential to cause large population dislocations and migration which can also lead to increased tensions 210 211 However factors other than climate change were judged to be substantially more important in affecting conflict over the last century These factors include intergroup inequality and low socio economic development 212 In some cases climate change can even lead to more peaceful relationships between groups as environmental problems require common policy to be developed 213 Global warming has been described as a threat multiplier 214 Conditions in certain places make it more likely that climate change impacts conflict ethnic exclusion an economy dependent on agriculture insufficient infrastructure poor local governance and low levels of development 213 A spike in wheat prices following crop losses from a period of drought may have contributed to the onset of the Arab Spring protests and revolutions in 2010 215 213 Economic impacts Main article Economic impacts of climate change Business activities affected by climate changed as found in the European Investment Bank Investment Survey 2020Economic forecasts of the impact of global warming vary considerably but are worse if there is only limited adaptation 216 Economic modelling may underrate the impact of potentially catastrophic climatic changes When estimating losses economists choose a discount rate which determines how much one prefers to have a good or cash now compared to at a future date Choosing a high discount rate may understate economic losses as losses for future generations weigh less heavily 217 Total economic impacts increase for higher temperature rise 218 For instance total damages are estimated to be 90 less if global warming is limited to 1 5 C 2 7 F compared to 3 66 C 6 59 F a warming level chosen to represent no mitigation 219 One study found a 3 5 reduction in global GDP by the end of the century if warming is limited to 3 C 5 4 F excluding the potential effect of tipping points Another study noted that global economic impact is underestimated by a factor of two to eight when tipping points are excluded from consideration 219 In a study on a high emission scenario a temperature rise of 2 C 3 6 F by 2050 would reduce global GDP by 2 5 7 5 By 2100 in this scenario the temperature would rise by 4 C 7 2 F which could reduce the global GDP by 30 in the worst case 220 Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather events since the 1970s 221 Socio economic factors have contributed to the observed trend of global losses such as population growth and increased wealth 222 Part of the growth is also related to regional climatic factors such as changes in precipitation and flooding events It is difficult to quantify the relative impact of socio economic factors and climate change on the observed trend 223 The trend does however suggest increasing vulnerability of social systems to climate change 223 Economic inequality Rich nations have done the most to fuel climate change 224 Climate change has contributed towards global economic inequality Wealthy countries in colder regions have either felt little overall economic impact from climate change or possibly benefited whereas poor hotter countries very likely grew less than if global warming had not occurred 225 226 Highly affected sectors Economic sectors directly affected by weather are more impacted by climate change than other sectors 227 For instance the agriculture fisheries and forestry sectors are all heavily affected 228 but also the tourism and energy sectors 227 Agriculture and forestry have suffered economic losses due to droughts and extreme heat for instance in Europe 229 If global warming surpasses 1 5 degrees there may be limits to adaptation for existing tourism and for outdoor work 230 In the energy sector thermal power plants depend on water to cool them Climate change can increase the likelihood of drought and fresh water shortages In addition higher operating temperatures reduces their efficiency and hence their output 231 Hydropower is affected by changes in the water cycle such as river flows The result of diminished river flow can be a power shortage in areas that depend heavily on hydroelectric power Brazil in particular is vulnerable due to its reliance on hydroelectricity as rising temperatures lower water flow and alterations in rainfall could reduce total energy production by 7 annually by the end of the century 231 Oil and natural gas infrastructure is affected by climate change and the increased risk of disasters such as storms cyclones flooding and rising sea levels 232 The insurance and financial services sectors are impacted by global warming 233 Insurance is an important tool to manage risks but often unavailable to poorer households Due to climate change premiums are going up for certain types of insurance such as flood insurance Poor adaptation to climate change further widens the gap between what people can afford and the costs of insurance as risks increase 234 In 2019 Munich Re noted that climate change could cause home insurance to become unaffordable for households at or below average incomes 235 Social impacts on vulnerable groups Climate change does not impact people within communities in the same way Vulnerable groups such as women the elderly religious minorities and refugees may be more impacted by climate change than others 236 People living in poverty Climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low income communities and developing countries around the world Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill effects of climate change due to their increased exposure and vulnerability 237 A 2020 World Bank paper estimated that between 32 million to 132 million additional people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change 238 Women Climate change increases gender inequality 239 reduces women s ability to be financially independent 240 and has an overall negative impact on the social and political rights of women especially in economies that are heavily based on agriculture 239 Indigenous peoples Indigenous communities tend to rely more on the environment for food and other necessities which makes them more vulnerable to disturbances in ecosystems 241 Indigenous communities across the globe generally have economic disadvantages that are not as prevalent in non indigenous communities due to the oppression they have experienced These disadvantages include less access to education and jobs and higher rates of poverty which add to their vulnerability to climate change 242 Children The Lancet review on health and climate change lists children among the worst affected by global warming 243 Children are 14 44 percent more likely to die from environmental factors 244 Possibility of societal collapse Further information Global catastrophe scenarios Climate change and Climate apocalypse Climate change has long been described as a severe risk to humans Climate change as an existential threat has emerged as a key theme in the climate movement discourse the theme is also used by people from Small Island Nations The topic has not been researched extensively The research community on existential risks typically defines existential risks as threats that could cause the extinction of humanity or destroy the potential of intelligent life on Earth 245 Key risks of climate change do not fit that definition However some key climate risks do impact survivability For instance areas may become too hot to survive or sea level rise makes it impossible to live at a specific location 246 247 245 This section is an excerpt from Climate apocalypse Apocalyptic impacts of climate change and ecological breakdown edit Severe impacts of climate change can combine including with climate unrelated concurrent risks such as worldwide pollution fragility resource depletion political disenchantment poverty or wealth inequality and biotechnology risk to result in a confluence of developments that cause a drastically aggravated impact on societies or humanity such multiple concurrent crises are sometimes referred to as a perfect storm 248 249 Climate change may also be considered as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends tensions and instability 250 Climate related factors of a potential collapse may include famine crop loss drought extreme weather hurricanes floods war co caused by scarce resources and conflict systemic risk relating to migration famine or conflict and disease 174 See also Climate change portal Ecology portal Environment portal World portalAnthropocene Global catastrophic risk Politics 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