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Extreme event attribution

February 15, 2024

Not to be confused with attribution of recent climate change.

Extreme event attribution, also known as attribution science, is a relatively new field of study in meteorology and climate science that tries to measure how ongoing climate change directly affects extreme events (rare events), for example extreme weather events.[1][2] Attribution science aims to determine which such recent events can be explained by or linked to a warming atmosphere and are not simply due to natural variations.[3]

History edit

Attribution science was first mentioned in a 2011 "State of the Climate" published by the American Meteorological Society which stated that climate change is linked to six extreme weather events that were studied.[4]

Purpose, methods and findings edit

German climatologist Friederike Otto posited that attribution science aims to answer the question, "did climate change play a role" in specific extreme events "within the news time frame – so within two weeks of the event".[5]

Attribution studies generally proceed in four steps: (1) measuring the magnitude and frequency of a given event based on observed data, (2) running computer models to compare with and verify observation data, (3) running the same models on a baseline "Earth" with no climate change, and (4) using statistics to analyze the differences between the second and third steps, thereby measuring the direct effect of climate change on the studied event.[3][5]

Heatwaves are the easiest weather events to attribute.[3]

Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of extreme weather differently, for example the 2010 Russia heat wave was made far more likely but not more intense.[3]

Applications and implications edit

Attribution science may affect climate change litigation, perhaps by increasing lawsuits against companies for causing and governments for not addressing climate change.[6][7]

Examples edit

  • A review summarized confidence, probabilities and costs-severities – such as economic costs, financial costs and number of early losses of life – of links to climate change and identified potential ways for the improvement of the field such as "improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts."[8][9]
  • Scientists of the international World Weather Attribution project publicized a study that found that human-caused climate change had an influence on the 2019–20 Australian wildfires by causing high-risk conditions that made widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely. They comment on the results, stating that climate change probably had more effects on the fires which couldn't be attributed using their climate simulations and that not all drivers of the fires showed imprints of anthropogenic climate change.[10][11]
  • The World Weather Attribution initiative has attributed the 2021 Western North America heat wave to climate change.[12]
  • The Climate Attribution Database contains scientific resources organized by theme.[13]
  • A study of 2020 storms of at least tropical storm-strength published in Nature Communications concluded that human-induced climate change increased extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates by 10%, and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts by 5%.[14] For hurricane-strength storms, the figures increased to 11% and 8%.[14]

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ NASEM (2016). Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-38094-2. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  2. ^ "The Science Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  3. ^ a b c d Zeng, Zubin (25 August 2021). "Is climate change to blame for extreme weather events? Attribution science says yes, for some – here's how it works". The Conversation. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  4. ^ Hu, Jane (19 December 2019). "The Decade of Attribution Science". Slate. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  5. ^ a b Sneed, Annie (2 January 2017). "Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  6. ^ Harvey, Chelsea (2 January 2018). "Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  7. ^ Schiermeier, Quirin (2021-09-08). "Climate science is supporting lawsuits that could help save the world". Nature. 597 (7875): 169–171. Bibcode:2021Natur.597..169S. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-02424-7. PMID 34497398. S2CID 237452741.
  8. ^ "Climate change is driving 2022 extreme heat and flooding". Thomson Reuters Foundation. Retrieved 19 July 2022.
  9. ^ Clarke, Ben; Otto, Friederike; Stuart-Smith, Rupert; Harrington, Luke (28 June 2022). "Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective". Environmental Research: Climate. 1 (1): 012001. doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d. hdl:10044/1/97290. S2CID 250134589.
  10. ^ Fountain, Henry (4 March 2020). "Climate Change Affected Australia's Wildfires, Scientists Confirm". The New York Times. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
  11. ^ Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Krikken, Folmer; Lewis, Sophie; Leach, Nicholas J.; Lehner, Flavio; Saunders, Kate R.; Weele, Michiel van; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Wallom, David; Sparrow, Sarah; Arrighi, Julie; Singh, Roop P.; Aalst, Maarten K. van; Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Vautard, Robert; Otto, Friederike E. L. (11 March 2020). "Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions: 1–46. doi:10.5194/nhess-2020-69. hdl:20.500.11850/475524.
  12. ^ "Extreme weather: How is it connected to climate change?". BBC News. 2021-08-09. Retrieved 2021-09-03.
  13. ^ Cho, Renee. "Attribution science: Linking climate change to extreme weather". phys.org. Columbia University. Retrieved 6 August 2022.
  14. ^ a b Reed, Kevin A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zarzycki, Colin M. (12 April 2022). "Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change". Nature Communications. 13 (1905): 1905. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13.1905R. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1. PMC 9005694. PMID 35414063.

External links edit

  • Climate Attribution
  • World Weather Attribution

February 15, 2024
extreme, event, attribution, confused, with, attribution, recent, climate, change, also, known, attribution, science, relatively, field, study, meteorology, climate, science, that, tries, measure, ongoing, climate, change, directly, affects, extreme, events, r. Not to be confused with attribution of recent climate change Extreme event attribution also known as attribution science is a relatively new field of study in meteorology and climate science that tries to measure how ongoing climate change directly affects extreme events rare events for example extreme weather events 1 2 Attribution science aims to determine which such recent events can be explained by or linked to a warming atmosphere and are not simply due to natural variations 3 Contents 1 History 2 Purpose methods and findings 3 Applications and implications 4 Examples 5 See also 6 References 7 External linksHistory editAttribution science was first mentioned in a 2011 State of the Climate published by the American Meteorological Society which stated that climate change is linked to six extreme weather events that were studied 4 Purpose methods and findings editGerman climatologist Friederike Otto posited that attribution science aims to answer the question did climate change play a role in specific extreme events within the news time frame so within two weeks of the event 5 Attribution studies generally proceed in four steps 1 measuring the magnitude and frequency of a given event based on observed data 2 running computer models to compare with and verify observation data 3 running the same models on a baseline Earth with no climate change and 4 using statistics to analyze the differences between the second and third steps thereby measuring the direct effect of climate change on the studied event 3 5 Heatwaves are the easiest weather events to attribute 3 Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of extreme weather differently for example the 2010 Russia heat wave was made far more likely but not more intense 3 Applications and implications editAttribution science may affect climate change litigation perhaps by increasing lawsuits against companies for causing and governments for not addressing climate change 6 7 Examples editA review summarized confidence probabilities and costs severities such as economic costs financial costs and number of early losses of life of links to climate change and identified potential ways for the improvement of the field such as improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non climate drivers of impacts 8 9 Scientists of the international World Weather Attribution project publicized a study that found that human caused climate change had an influence on the 2019 20 Australian wildfires by causing high risk conditions that made widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely They comment on the results stating that climate change probably had more effects on the fires which couldn t be attributed using their climate simulations and that not all drivers of the fires showed imprints of anthropogenic climate change 10 11 The World Weather Attribution initiative has attributed the 2021 Western North America heat wave to climate change 12 The Climate Attribution Database contains scientific resources organized by theme 13 A study of 2020 storms of at least tropical storm strength published in Nature Communications concluded that human induced climate change increased extreme 3 hourly storm rainfall rates by 10 and extreme 3 day accumulated rainfall amounts by 5 14 For hurricane strength storms the figures increased to 11 and 8 14 See also editClimate change mitigation Drivers of global warming Climate justice Economics of climate change Effects of climate changeReferences edit NASEM 2016 Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change Washington D C The National Academies Press ISBN 978 0 309 38094 2 Retrieved 3 September 2021 The Science Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change Union of Concerned Scientists Retrieved 3 September 2021 a b c d Zeng Zubin 25 August 2021 Is climate change to blame for extreme weather events Attribution science says yes for some here s how it works The Conversation Retrieved 3 September 2021 Hu Jane 19 December 2019 The Decade of Attribution Science Slate Retrieved 3 September 2021 a b Sneed Annie 2 January 2017 Yes Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change Scientific American Retrieved 3 September 2021 Harvey Chelsea 2 January 2018 Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change Scientific American Retrieved 3 September 2021 Schiermeier Quirin 2021 09 08 Climate science is supporting lawsuits that could help save the world Nature 597 7875 169 171 Bibcode 2021Natur 597 169S doi 10 1038 d41586 021 02424 7 PMID 34497398 S2CID 237452741 Climate change is driving 2022 extreme heat and flooding Thomson Reuters Foundation Retrieved 19 July 2022 Clarke Ben Otto Friederike Stuart Smith Rupert Harrington Luke 28 June 2022 Extreme weather impacts of climate change an attribution perspective Environmental Research Climate 1 1 012001 doi 10 1088 2752 5295 ac6e7d hdl 10044 1 97290 S2CID 250134589 Fountain Henry 4 March 2020 Climate Change Affected Australia s Wildfires Scientists Confirm The New York Times Retrieved 6 April 2020 Oldenborgh Geert Jan van Krikken Folmer Lewis Sophie Leach Nicholas J Lehner Flavio Saunders Kate R Weele Michiel van Haustein Karsten Li Sihan Wallom David Sparrow Sarah Arrighi Julie Singh Roop P Aalst Maarten K van Philip Sjoukje Y Vautard Robert Otto Friederike E L 11 March 2020 Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 1 46 doi 10 5194 nhess 2020 69 hdl 20 500 11850 475524 Extreme weather How is it connected to climate change BBC News 2021 08 09 Retrieved 2021 09 03 Cho Renee Attribution science Linking climate change to extreme weather phys org Columbia University Retrieved 6 August 2022 a b Reed Kevin A Wehner Michael F Zarzycki Colin M 12 April 2022 Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human induced climate change Nature Communications 13 1905 1905 Bibcode 2022NatCo 13 1905R doi 10 1038 s41467 022 29379 1 PMC 9005694 PMID 35414063 External links editClimate Attribution World Weather Attribution Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Extreme event attribution amp oldid 1193624680, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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