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IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

August 22, 2023

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. Three Working Groups (WGI, II, and III) covered the following topics: The Physical Science Basis (WGI); Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII); Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII). Of these, the first study was published in 2021, the second report February 2022, and the third in April 2022. The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023.

The first of the three working groups published its report on 9 August 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.[1][2] A total of 234 scientists from 66 countries contributed to this first working group (WGI) report.[3][4] The authors[5] built on more than 14,000 scientific papers to produce a 3,949-page report, which was then approved by 195 governments.[6] The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) document was drafted by scientists and agreed to line-by-line by the 195 governments in the IPCC during the five days leading up to 6 August 2021.[5]

According to the WGI report, it is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) or 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made.[1] In a front-page story, The Guardian described the report as "its starkest warning yet" of "major inevitable and irreversible climate changes",[7] a theme echoed by many newspapers[8] as well as political leaders and activists around the world.

Production

History

After the IPCC had been founded in 1988, the First Assessment Report (AR1) was published in 1990 and received an update in 1992.[9] In intervals of about six years, new editions of IPCC Assessment Report followed (see figure).

 
Page counts of the most recent 6 IPCC Assessment Reports

In April 2016, at the 43rd session which took place in Nairobi, Kenya, the topics for three Special Reports (SR) and one methodology report on Greenhouse Gases (GHG) inventories in the AR6 assessment cycle were decided.[10][11] These reports were completed in the interim phase since the finalisation of the Fifth Assessment Report and the publication of results from the Sixth Assessment Report.

Sequence of release dates:

Structure

The sixth assessment report is made up of the reports of three working groups (WG I, II, and III) and a synthesis report which concluded the assessment in early 2023.[2]

Leaks

During the preparation of the three main AR6 reports, a small group of scientists leaked some information on the results of Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change) through the organization Scientist Rebellion. As governments can change the summaries for policymakers (SPM) for IPCC reports, the scientists were afraid that politicians might dilute this information in the summary. According to the leaked information, humanity should cut GHG emissions by 50% by 2030 and completely by 2050 in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). These efforts require strong changes in lifestyle and economy.[15][16]

Geopolitics

Geopolitics has been included in climate models for the first time, in the form of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1 "Taking the Green Road", SSP2 "Middle of the Road", SSP3 "A Rocky Road", SSP4 "A Road Divided", and SSP5 "Taking the Highway", which have been published in 2016.

Those pathways assume that international cooperation and worldwide increase in GDP will facilitate adaptation to climate change. The geopolitical pathways served as one of the sources for the formation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in the report among with other sources.[17]: 1–98ff  One of the assumptions is that enough GDP and technology derived from fossil fuels development will permit to adapt even to 5.0 °C (9.0 °F) temperature rise. However, the report that is based on consensus science and was written by hundreds of scientists did not confirm the assumption about adaptation to 5 °C. Some experts assume, that while the odds for a worst-case scenario (5 °C) and the best base-case (1.5 °C) today seem lower, the most plausible outcome is around 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).[18]

The report explicitly says: "Each pathway is an internally consistent, plausible and integrated description of a socio-economic future, but these socio-economic futures do not account for the effects of climate change, and no new climate policies are assumed. ... By design, the evolution of drivers and emissions within the SSP scenarios do not take into account the effects of climate change."[17]: 1–100 

Participation

Like other major international scientific processes, the IPCC has been accused of not sufficiently including scholars from the Global South. For example, the biases were highlighted that prevent African scholars from participating, such as publication requirements and being an expert reviewer before joining the panel of contributors.[19] Similarly, the physical sciences report only had 28% women in its team of authors.[20]

The Physical Science Basis (Working Group 1 report)

 
Variation of annual observed global average temperature (1850–2019) relative to the 1850–1900 average (blue line), as reported in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM)[21]

A total of 234 scientists from 66 countries contributed to the first of three working group reports.[3][4] Working group 1 (WGI) published Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.[1][2] The report's authors[5] built on more than 14,000 scientific papers to produce a 3,949-page report, which was then approved by 195 governments.[6] The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) document was drafted by scientists and agreed to line-by-line by the 195 governments in the IPCC during the five days leading up to 6 August 2021.[5] It was published on Monday, 9 August 2021.

According to the report, it is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C or 2 °C if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made.[1] In a front-page story, The Guardian described the report as "its starkest warning yet" of "major inevitable and irreversible climate changes",[7] a theme echoed by many newspapers around the world.[8]

The Technical Summary (TS) provides a level of detail between the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) and the full report. In addition, an interactive atlas was made "for a flexible spatial and temporal analysis of both data-driven climate change information and assessment findings in the report".[22] Following IPCC protocol adopted in May 2011, errata were and are being compiled. Thirty-four questions were published as part of the FAQs section, with each one related to a chapter of the report. Regional fact sheets were made available for geographic regions of the globe, drawing on facts from the reports. The data for the SPM are being held and visible at the UK Centre for Environmental Data Analysis website. Computer slides were made available as part of the "Outreach Materials" , for press conferences and basic presentations.

Findings

The Working Group 1 (WGI) report, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis comprises thirteen chapters and is focused on the foundational consensus of the climate science behind the causes and effects of human greenhouse gas emissions. Compared with previous assessments, the report included much more detail on the regional effects of climate change,[6] although more research is needed on climate change in eastern and central North America.[23] Sea-level rise by 2100 is likely to be from half to one metre, but two to five metres is not ruled out, as ice sheet instability processes are still poorly understood.[23]

The report quantifies climate sensitivity as between 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) and 4.0 °C (7.2 °F) for each doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,[6] while the best estimate is 3 °C.[24]: SPM-11  In all the represented Shared Socioeconomic Pathways the temperature reaches the 1.5 °C warming limit, at least for some period of time in the middle of the 21st century. However, Joeri Rogelj, director of the Grantham Institute and a lead IPCC author, said that it is possible to completely avoid warming of 1.5 °C, but to achieve that the world would need to cut emissions by 50% by the year 2030 and by 100% by the year 2050. If the world does not begin to drastically cut emissions by the time of the next report of the IPCC, then it will no longer be possible to prevent 1.5 °C of warming.[25] SSP1-1.9 is a new pathway with a rather low radiative forcing of 1.9 W/m2 in 2100 to model how people could keep warming below the 1.5 °C threshold. But, even in this scenario, the global temperature peaks at 1.6 °C in the years 2041–2060 and declines after.[23]

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report [2]: SPM-14 
SSP Scenario
 Estimated warming
(2041–2060)		 Estimated warming
(2081–2100)		 Very likely range in °C
(2081–2100)
SSP1-1.9 very low GHG emissions:
CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2050 		1.6 °C 1.4 °C 1.0 – 1.8
SSP1-2.6 low GHG emissions:
CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2075 		1.7 °C 1.8 °C 1.3 – 2.4
SSP2-4.5 intermediate GHG emissions:
CO2 emissions around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100 		2.0 °C 2.7 °C 2.1 – 3.5
SSP3-7.0 high GHG emissions:
CO2 emissions double by 2100 		2.1 °C 3.6 °C 2.8 – 4.6
SSP5-8.5 very high GHG emissions:
CO2 emissions triple by 2075 		2.4 °C 4.4 °C 3.3 – 5.7

The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios[2]: SPM-12  but a 2020 commentary described SSP5-8.5 as highly unlikely, SSP3-7.0 as unlikely, and SSP2-4.5 as likely.[26]

However, a report citing the above commentary shows that RCP8.5 is the best match to the cumulative emissions from 2005 to 2020. [27]

According to AR6 coauthors, the probable temperature rise is in the middle of the scenario spectrum that reaches from 1.5 °C to 5 °C, at about 3 °C at the end of the century.[18] It is likely that 1.5 °C will be reached before 2040.[23] The threats from compound impacts are rated higher than in previous IPCC reports.[23] The famous hockey stick graph has been extended.[23]

Extreme weather is expected to increase in line with temperature, and compound effects (such as heat and drought together) may impact more on society.[23] The report includes a major change from previous IPCC in the ability of scientists to attribute specific extreme weather events.[28]

The global carbon budget to keep below 1.5 °C is estimated at 500 billion more tonnes of greenhouse gas, which would need the whole world to be net zero before 2050.[5] Staying within this budget, if counting from the beginning of the year 2020, gives a 50% chance to stay below 1.5 °C. For having a 67% chance, the budget is 400 billion tonnes and for an 83% chance it is 300 billion tonnes.[24]: SPM-29f  The report says that rapidly reducing methane emissions is very important, to make short-term gains to buy time for carbon dioxide emission cuts to take effect.[5]

Any future warming will increase the occurrence of extreme weather events. Even in a 1.5 °C temperature rise there will be "an increasing occurrence of some extreme events unprecedented in the observational record". The likelihood of more rare events increases more.[24]: SPM-15 

The frequency, and the intensity of such events will considerably increase with warming, as described in the following table:[24]: SPM-18 

Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events with global warming
Name of event Climate in 1850–1900 1 °C warming 1.5 °C warming 2 °C warming 4 °C warming
1 in 10 years heatwave Normal 2.8 times more often, 1.2 °C hotter 4.1 times more often, 1.9 °C hotter 5.6 times more often, 2.6 °C hotter 9.4 times more often, 5.1 °C hotter
1 in 50 years heatwave Normal 4.8 times more often, 1.2 °C hotter 8.6 times more often, 2.0 °C hotter 13.9 times more often, 2.7 °C hotter 39.2 times more often, 5.3 °C hotter
1 in 10 years heavy precipitation event Normal 1.3 times more often, 6.7% wetter 1.5 times more often, 10.5% wetter 1.7 times more often, 14.0% wetter 2.7 times more often, 30.2% wetter
1 in 10 years drought Normal 1.7 times more often, 0.3 sd drier 2.0 times more often, 0.5 sd drier 2.4 times more often, 0.6 sd drier 4.1 times more often, 1.0 sd drier
 
Increase in frequency of extreme events with global warming in the Sixth Assessment Report's Summary for Policymakers[29]

Reception

In science

The publication of the report was during the Northern Hemisphere summer, where there was much extreme weather, such as a Western North America heat wave, flooding in Europe, extreme rainfall in India and China, and wildfires in several countries.[3][30] Some scientists are describing these extreme weather events as clear gaps in the models used for writing the report, with the lived experience proving more severe than the consensus science.[30][31]

In politics

After publication of the Working Group 1 report, EU Vice President Frans Timmermans said that it is not too late to prevent runaway climate change.[32] UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the next decade will be pivotal to the future of the planet.[33]

Rick Spinrad, administrator of the US's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, stated that his agency "will use the new insights from this IPCC report to inform the work it does with communities to prepare for, respond to, and adapt to climate change".[34]

NGO

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg said that the report "confirms what we already know from thousands [of] previous studies and reports—that we are in an emergency".[35]

In media

In a front-page story, dedicated to the report The Guardian described it as "starkest warning yet" of "major inevitable and irreversible climate changes".[7] This message was echoed by many media channels after the release of the report.[8]

According to CTXT, the publication that first posted the leaked materials from the report: "it showed that the global economy must be shifted rapidly away from a reliance on conventional GDP growth, but that the report underplays this."[15][16]

From the United Nations

The Secretary-General of the UN, António Guterres, called the report a "code red for humanity".[36]

Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability (Working Group 2 report)

The second part of the report, a contribution of working group II (WGII), was published on 28 February 2022. Entitled Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, the full report is 3675 pages, plus a 37-page summary for policymakers.[37] It contains information on the impacts of climate change on nature and human activity.[38] Topics examined included biodiversity loss, migration, risks to urban and rural activities, human health, food security, water scarcity, and energy. It also assesses ways to address these risks and highlights how climate resilient development can be part of a larger shift towards sustainability.[39]

The report found that climate impacts are at the high end of previous estimates, with all parts of the world being affected.[38] At least 3.3 billion people,[40] about 40% of the world population, now fall into the most serious category of "highly vulnerable", with the worst effects in the developing world.[41] If emissions continue on their current path, Africa will lose 30% of its maize cultivation territory and 50% of its land cultivated for beans.[41] One billion people face flooding due to sea level rise.[40] Climate change, together with other factors, also increases the risk of infectious diseases outbreaks like the COVID-19 pandemic.[42] The report also cites evidence that China will pay the highest financial cost if the temperature continue to rise. The impacts will include food insecurity, water scarcity, flooding, especially in coastal areas where most of the population lives due to higher than average sea level rise, and more powerful cyclones. At some point part of the country may face wet-bulb temperatures higher than humans and other mammals can tolerate more than six hours.[43] Overall, the report identified 127 different negative impacts of climate change, some of them irreversible.[40]

People can protect themselves to some degree from the effects of climate change, which is known as adaptation. Overall, progress on adaptation has been made in all sectors and regions, although this progress is unevenly distributed and many initiatives prioritise immediate risks over longer-term transformational changes.[39] Still, there are feasible and effective adaptation options available and many adaption actions have benefits beyond reducing climate risks, including positive effects on the Sustainable Development Goals.[44]: Figure SPM.4  For example, the majority of current adaptations address water-related risks; adaptations like improved water management, water storage and irrigation reduce vulnerability and can also provide economic and ecological benefits.[44]: SPM.C.2.1  Similarly, adaptation actions like agroforestry, farm- and landscape diversification and urban agriculture can increase food availability, while at the same time improving sustainability.[44]: SPM.C.2.2 

WGII further highlighted the need for conservation in order to maintain biodiversity, and mitigate the effects of climate change. The report reads, "Recent analyses, drawing on a range of lines of evidence, suggest that maintaining the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services at a global scale depends on effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30% to 50% of Earth's land, freshwater and ocean areas, including currently near-natural ecosystems."[39] The report was critical of technological approaches to carbon dioxide removal, instead indicating that urbanisation could help drive adoption of mitigation strategies such as public transport and renewable energy.[41] The report also warns there are high risks associated with strategies such as solar radiation management; planting forests in unnatural locations; or "poorly implemented bioenergy, with or without carbon capture and storage".[44]: SPM-19, 20 

The report puts considerable emphasis on adaptation limits. It states that some human and natural systems already reached "soft adaptation limits" including human systems in Australia, Small Islands, America, Africa and Europe and some natural systems reach even the "hard adaptation limits" like part of corals, wetland, rainforests, ecosystems in polar and mountain regions. If the temperature rise will reach 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) additional ecosystems and human systems will reach hard adaptation limits, including regions depending on glaciers and snow water and small islands. At 2 °C (3.6 °F) temperature rise, soft limits will be reached by many staple crops in many areas while at 3 °C (5.4 °F) hard limits will be reached by parts of Europe.[44]: SPM-26, 27 

In line with the emphasis on adaptation limits, the report also highlights loss and damage, meaning negative consequences of climate change that cannot be avoided through adaptation. The report states that such losses and damages are already widespread: droughts, floods and heatwaves are becoming more frequent, and a mass extinction is already underway.[38] Taking near-term actions to limit warming to below 1.5 °C would substantially reduce future losses and damages, but cannot eliminate them all.[39] Previously, rich countries have resisted taking responsibility for these lossess.[41]

The report states that even a temporary overshoot of the 1.5 degree limit will lead to negative effects on humans and ecosystems. According to the report: "Depending on the magnitude and duration of overshoot, some impacts will cause release of additional greenhouse gases (medium confidence) and some will be irreversible, even if global warming is reduced (high confidence)".[44]: SPM-20  Climate resilient development will be more difficult if the global temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, while if it will rise by more than 2 degrees it will become impossible "in some regions and sub-regions".[44]: SPM-32, 33, 35  Although the report's outlook is bleak, its conclusion argues that there is still time to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) by drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emission, but such action must be taken immediately.[41] Moreover, climate resilient development can have both adaptation and mitigation benefits, but it requires international cooperation and collaborations with local communities and organisations.[44]: SPM-32, 33, 35 

Reactions

Responding to the report, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, called it "an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership"[38] and "the facts are undeniable ... the world's biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home."[45] The United States special presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, said "We have seen the increase in climate-fuelled extreme events, and the damage that is left behind – lives lost and livelihoods ruined. The question at this point is not whether we can altogether avoid the crisis – it is whether we can avoid the worst consequences."[38]

Environmentalist Inger Andersen commented: "Nature can be our saviour ... but only if we save it first."[41]

The report was published during the first week of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[46] In the context of the conflict, the Ukrainian delegation connected the Russian aggression to the global dependency on oil, and a Russian official, Oleg Anisimov, apologized for the conflict despite the possible repercussions.[46][47] The Ukrainian delegation also called for news reporting on the war not to overshadow the WGII report.[40]

See also: Environmental impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group 3 report)

The report was presented on 4 April 2022.[48] The structure of the report was adopted in 2017.[49] Some observers are worried that the conclusions might be watered down, considering the way the reports are adopted.[50] According to The Observer, some countries "have sought to make changes that would weaken the final warnings".[50]

WGIII found that "net anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since 2010 across all major sectors globally. An increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas. Emissions reductions in CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes, due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings."[51]

Areas of focus

Matters covered by the report include:

  • Trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions;
  • Emission reduction pathways that match up with long-term net-zero goals;
  • Shorter-term pathways for emission reductions and their compatibility with "national development objectives" for job creation, competitiveness, poverty, sustainable development, and more;
  • Social aspects of greenhouse gas emission reductions, including objectives to meet human needs under the UN Sustainable Development Goals;
  • Energy systems;
  • Agriculture, forestry, and other land uses;
  • Cities and other human settlements;
  • Buildings;
  • Transportation;
  • Industry;
  • Costs and opportunities across different economic sectors;
  • National and sub-national policies and institutions;
  • International cooperation;
  • Investment and finance;
  • Innovation, technology, and technological transfer;
  • Connections between sustainable development and the response to climate change.

Important findings

The report uses some new approaches like to include different social aspects, the participation of youth, indigenous people, cities, businesses in the solution.[52]: SPM-2, 3  It states that "International cooperation is a critical enabler for achieving ambitious climate change mitigation goals."[52]: SPM-62  International cooperation has positive and measurable effect on climate mitigation. It provides critical support for many mitigation measures. Participation in international agreements leads to adoption of climate policies. For preventing global temperature from rising more than 2 degrees above the preindustrial level, international cooperation needs to be much stronger than now as many developing countries need support from other countries higher than present for strong climate action.[53]

According to the report demand side mitigation measures can reduce GHG emissions by 40–70% by the year 2050 compared to scenarios in which countries will fulfill its national pledges given before 2020. For being implemented successfully those measures should be linked "with improving basic wellbeing for all".[52]: SPM-44 

The report concluded that in order to achieve net zero emissions, it is necessary to employ carbon dioxide removal technologies, stating "All global pathways that limit warming to 1.5 °C ... with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2 °C... involve rapid and deep and in most cases immediate GHG emission reductions in all sectors. Modelled mitigation strategies to achieve these reductions include transitioning from fossil fuels without CCS to very low- or zero-carbon energy sources, such as renewables or fossil fuels with CCS, demand side measures and improving efficiency, reducing non-CO2 emissions, and deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods to counterbalance residual GHG emissions",[54][55] reiterating the finding of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C released in October 2018 that stated "All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 °C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 GtCO2 over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5 °C...".[56][57] The report compares different methods of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) including agroforestry, reforestation, blue carbon management, restoration of peatland and others.[52]: SPM-47 

Cities have great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Without any action, cities are supposed to emit 65 GtCO2-eq by the year 2050. With full scale mitigation action the emissions could be brought down to near zero, with the worst-case scenario assuming a non-mitigatable remainder of 3 GtCO2-eq. City planning, supporting mixed use of space, transit, walking, cycling and sharing vehicles can reduce urban emissions by 23–26%. Urban forests, lakes and other blue and green infrastructure can reduce emissions directly and indirectly (e.g. by reducing the energy demand for cooling).[58]

Buildings received significant attention. Buildings emitted 21% of global GHG emissions in the year 2019. 80–90% of their emissions can be cut while helping to achieve other Sustainable Development Goals. The report introduces a new scheme for reducing GHG emissions in buildings: SER = Sufficiency, Efficiency, Renewable. Sufficiency measures do not need very complex technology, energy supply, maintenance or replacement during the life of the building. Those include, natural ventilation, green roofs, white walls, mixed use of spaces, collective use of devices etc.[59] There are multiple links between emissions from buildings and emissions from other sectors including those discussed in chapters 6, 7, 8, 10 and 11. Reducing GHG emissions from buildings is linked to sharing economy and circular economy.[60]

The report found that there is no evidence that sustainable development requires fossil fuels.[61] Climate journalist Amy Westervelt reacting to the report, described this finding as one of the most radical, debunking a common refrain by energy poverty advocates, that development requires use of fossil fuels.[61]

The IPCC found that decent living standards could be achieved using less energy than prior consensus assumed. According to the report for reaching well being for all, the required energy consumption is "between 20 and 50 GJ cap-1 yr-1 depending on context." More equitable income distribution can lower emissions. Mitigation pathways based on low demand and high efficiency can achieve decent living standards and well being for all. Pathways based on reducing consumption, involving sustainable development have less negative outcomes than pathways based on high consumption and narrow mitigation. Table TS.29 shows that mitigation measures in the urban, buildings, AFOLU and transport sectors have considerably more synergies and less trade offs with sustainable development goals than measures in the energy sector while the latter (less trade offs) also holds true for the industry sector. According to table TS30, narrow mitigation can increase habitat loss by 600%, while avoiding habitat degradation by around 95%. Mitigation with sustainable development did not harm forest cover and biodiversity.[62]

International cooperation gives the possibility to achieve climate change mitigation without compromising sustainable development goals.[63]

The report mentions some improvement in global climate action. For example, the rate of deforestation slowed after 2010 and the total forest cover increased in the latest years due to reforestation in Europe, Asia and North America.[64]

Responses

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, said the report described "litany of broken climate promises [by policy makers]" and in his remarks called for more action, saying "Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals. But, the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels."[65]

AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023

The synthesis report which summarises the entire document was finalised at the 58th plenary meeting of the panel at Interlaken in March 2023 and was published on 20 March 2023. It includes a summary for policymakers and is the basis for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai.[66]

Main findings

In the report, there are guidelines for both responses in the near term and in the long-term. According to the report, the main source of the increase in global warming is due to the increase in CO2 emissions, stating that it is likely or very likely to exceed 1.5 °C under higher emission scenarios.[67]

The panel published a longer report,[68] a summary for policymakers[69] a presentation[70] and a short "Headline Statements" document,[71] summarizing its findings in 3-4 pages. Among other it contains the next points:

  • Climate change is a threat to humans and planet. There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure Sustainability. Climate action is enabled by international cooperation (including access to required financing, particularly for vulnerable groups), inclusive governance and coordinated policies. Clear goals, diverse knowledge, finance, technology are enablers for climate action. For achieving climate goals, financing need to increase many-fold. There is sufficient global capital, but there are barriers for redirecting it to climate action. Choices made in next years will have impacts for thousands of years.
  • Humans, mainly through emissions of greenhouse gases, certainly caused global warming. Those emissions continue to rise, coming from unsustainable energy use, land use, consumption, with unequal contributions between regions, countries, and individuals. Global temperature rose by 1.1 °C from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020. Human-caused climate change caused widespread and fast changes all over the world, what has led to severe negative impacts on nature and people. Communities who have contributed the least to climate change are disproportionately affected.
  • Adaptation has increased, but adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rate of action. Some ecosystems and regions have reached their adaptation limits. Maladaptation can be avoided by good planning and implementation, with co-benefits. Current financing is insufficient for adaptation, especially in low income countries.
  • Mitigation has increased, but even if NDCs announced by October 2021 will be met, warming will likely exceed 1.5 °C in the 21st century and it is hard to limit warming to 2 °C. There are gaps between really implemented policies and NDCs. Financing is insufficient to meet mitigation goals.
  • More greenhouse gas emissions will cause more global warming, reaching the 1.5 °C limit in the near term. More warming will intensify many concurrent negative impacts. With more warming, long-term negative impacts are many times higher than current, there is more likelihood of abrupt and/or irreversible changes, risks, low-likelihood events with very large negative impacts, losses and damages, climatic and non-climatic impacts, increasingly interacting, compound and cascading, more complex and difficult to manage. Adaptation options will become less effective, more human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits.
  • Projected CO2 emissions from currently existing fossil fuel infrastructure would exceed the carbon budget for 1.5 °C. For limiting warming to 1.5 °C and to 2 °C, we need rapid, deep, in most cases, immediate GHG emissions reductions in all sectors by 2030 and reaching net zero CO2 emissions in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.
  • If warming exceeds 1.5 °C, it could be reduced again by negative emissions, but this would require additional use of carbon dioxide removal, with bigger feasibility and sustainability problems. The overshoot would result in negative impacts, some irreversible, additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of the overshoot.
  • Fast, far-reaching system transitions in all sectors and systems including significant upscaling of mitigation and adaptation options (that are available) are necessary to secure sustainability. Climate action in the needed scale in this decade would reduce losses and damages for humans and ecosystems, and deliver many co-benefits. Near-term actions need potentially disruptive changes but they can be softened by enabling policies.
  • Accelerated and equitable climate action is critical to sustainable development and have more synergies than trade-offs with it. Equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition enable climate action. Adaptation requires increased support to people vulnerable to climate change. There are many possibilities for reducing emission-intensive consumption, including through lifestyle changes, with co-benefits.

In the presentation (page 9) the panel called to cut GHG emissions by 50% by the year 2030.[70] In the Longer Report at pages 68–70 are presented different possibilities for climate action and potential for emissions reduction from demand side measures which can reduce GHG by 40%-70% in some sectors considering that some groups need more resources and energy.[68]

References

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External links

  • IPCC website
    • Official IPCC Sixth Assessment Report website
      • Official IPCC AP6 WG1 Report website
        • IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas
      • Official IPCC AP6 WG2 Report website
      • Official IPCC AP6 WG3 Report website
      • Official IPCC AP6 Synthesis Report website
  • IPCC-related news from The Guardian newspaper

August 22, 2023
ipcc, sixth, assessment, report, sixth, assessment, report, united, nations, intergovernmental, panel, climate, change, ipcc, sixth, series, reports, which, assess, scientific, technical, socio, economic, information, concerning, climate, change, three, workin. The Sixth Assessment Report AR6 of the United Nations UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific technical and socio economic information concerning climate change Three Working Groups WGI II and III covered the following topics The Physical Science Basis WGI Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability WGII Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Of these the first study was published in 2021 the second report February 2022 and the third in April 2022 The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023 The first of the three working groups published its report on 9 August 2021 Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis 1 2 A total of 234 scientists from 66 countries contributed to this first working group WGI report 3 4 The authors 5 built on more than 14 000 scientific papers to produce a 3 949 page report which was then approved by 195 governments 6 The Summary for Policymakers SPM document was drafted by scientists and agreed to line by line by the 195 governments in the IPCC during the five days leading up to 6 August 2021 5 According to the WGI report it is only possible to avoid warming of 1 5 C 2 7 F or 2 0 C 3 6 F if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made 1 In a front page story The Guardian described the report as its starkest warning yet of major inevitable and irreversible climate changes 7 a theme echoed by many newspapers 8 as well as political leaders and activists around the world Contents 1 Production 1 1 History 1 2 Structure 1 3 Leaks 1 4 Geopolitics 1 5 Participation 2 The Physical Science Basis Working Group 1 report 2 1 Findings 2 2 Reception 2 2 1 In science 2 2 2 In politics 2 2 3 NGO 2 2 4 In media 2 2 5 From the United Nations 3 Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation amp Vulnerability Working Group 2 report 3 1 Reactions 4 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group 3 report 4 1 Areas of focus 4 2 Important findings 4 3 Responses 5 AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023 5 1 Main findings 6 References 7 External linksProduction EditHistory Edit After the IPCC had been founded in 1988 the First Assessment Report AR1 was published in 1990 and received an update in 1992 9 In intervals of about six years new editions of IPCC Assessment Report followed see figure Page counts of the most recent 6 IPCC Assessment ReportsIn April 2016 at the 43rd session which took place in Nairobi Kenya the topics for three Special Reports SR and one methodology report on Greenhouse Gases GHG inventories in the AR6 assessment cycle were decided 10 11 These reports were completed in the interim phase since the finalisation of the Fifth Assessment Report and the publication of results from the Sixth Assessment Report Sequence of release dates Special Report on Global Warming of 1 5 C SR15 in October 2018 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories in May 2019 Special Report on Climate Change and Land SRCCL in August 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate SROCC in September 2019Structure Edit The sixth assessment report is made up of the reports of three working groups WG I II and III and a synthesis report which concluded the assessment in early 2023 2 The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change in August 2021 12 13 WGI contribution Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability in February 2022 WGII contribution Mitigation of Climate Change in April 2022 WGIII contribution Synthesis Report in March 2023 14 Leaks Edit During the preparation of the three main AR6 reports a small group of scientists leaked some information on the results of Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change through the organization Scientist Rebellion As governments can change the summaries for policymakers SPM for IPCC reports the scientists were afraid that politicians might dilute this information in the summary According to the leaked information humanity should cut GHG emissions by 50 by 2030 and completely by 2050 in order to limit warming to 1 5 C 2 7 F These efforts require strong changes in lifestyle and economy 15 16 Geopolitics Edit Geopolitics has been included in climate models for the first time in the form of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1 Taking the Green Road SSP2 Middle of the Road SSP3 A Rocky Road SSP4 A Road Divided and SSP5 Taking the Highway which have been published in 2016 Those pathways assume that international cooperation and worldwide increase in GDP will facilitate adaptation to climate change The geopolitical pathways served as one of the sources for the formation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in the report among with other sources 17 1 98ff One of the assumptions is that enough GDP and technology derived from fossil fuels development will permit to adapt even to 5 0 C 9 0 F temperature rise However the report that is based on consensus science and was written by hundreds of scientists did not confirm the assumption about adaptation to 5 C Some experts assume that while the odds for a worst case scenario 5 C and the best base case 1 5 C today seem lower the most plausible outcome is around 3 0 C 5 4 F 18 The report explicitly says Each pathway is an internally consistent plausible and integrated description of a socio economic future but these socio economic futures do not account for the effects of climate change and no new climate policies are assumed By design the evolution of drivers and emissions within the SSP scenarios do not take into account the effects of climate change 17 1 100 Participation Edit Like other major international scientific processes the IPCC has been accused of not sufficiently including scholars from the Global South For example the biases were highlighted that prevent African scholars from participating such as publication requirements and being an expert reviewer before joining the panel of contributors 19 Similarly the physical sciences report only had 28 women in its team of authors 20 The Physical Science Basis Working Group 1 report Edit Variation of annual observed global average temperature 1850 2019 relative to the 1850 1900 average blue line as reported in the Summary for Policymakers SPM 21 A total of 234 scientists from 66 countries contributed to the first of three working group reports 3 4 Working group 1 WGI published Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis 1 2 The report s authors 5 built on more than 14 000 scientific papers to produce a 3 949 page report which was then approved by 195 governments 6 The Summary for Policymakers SPM document was drafted by scientists and agreed to line by line by the 195 governments in the IPCC during the five days leading up to 6 August 2021 5 It was published on Monday 9 August 2021 According to the report it is only possible to avoid warming of 1 5 C or 2 C if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made 1 In a front page story The Guardian described the report as its starkest warning yet of major inevitable and irreversible climate changes 7 a theme echoed by many newspapers around the world 8 The Technical Summary TS provides a level of detail between the Summary for Policymakers SPM and the full report In addition an interactive atlas was made for a flexible spatial and temporal analysis of both data driven climate change information and assessment findings in the report 22 Following IPCC protocol adopted in May 2011 errata were and are being compiled Thirty four questions were published as part of the FAQs section with each one related to a chapter of the report Regional fact sheets were made available for geographic regions of the globe drawing on facts from the reports The data for the SPM are being held and visible at the UK Centre for Environmental Data Analysis website Computer slides were made available as part of the Outreach Materials for press conferences and basic presentations Findings Edit The Working Group 1 WGI report Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis comprises thirteen chapters and is focused on the foundational consensus of the climate science behind the causes and effects of human greenhouse gas emissions Compared with previous assessments the report included much more detail on the regional effects of climate change 6 although more research is needed on climate change in eastern and central North America 23 Sea level rise by 2100 is likely to be from half to one metre but two to five metres is not ruled out as ice sheet instability processes are still poorly understood 23 The report quantifies climate sensitivity as between 2 5 C 4 5 F and 4 0 C 7 2 F for each doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 6 while the best estimate is 3 C 24 SPM 11 In all the represented Shared Socioeconomic Pathways the temperature reaches the 1 5 C warming limit at least for some period of time in the middle of the 21st century However Joeri Rogelj director of the Grantham Institute and a lead IPCC author said that it is possible to completely avoid warming of 1 5 C but to achieve that the world would need to cut emissions by 50 by the year 2030 and by 100 by the year 2050 If the world does not begin to drastically cut emissions by the time of the next report of the IPCC then it will no longer be possible to prevent 1 5 C of warming 25 SSP1 1 9 is a new pathway with a rather low radiative forcing of 1 9 W m2 in 2100 to model how people could keep warming below the 1 5 C threshold But even in this scenario the global temperature peaks at 1 6 C in the years 2041 2060 and declines after 23 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 2 SPM 14 vte SSP Scenario Estimated warming 2041 2060 Estimated warming 2081 2100 Very likely range in C 2081 2100 SSP1 1 9 very low GHG emissions CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2050 1 6 C 1 4 C 1 0 1 8SSP1 2 6 low GHG emissions CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2075 1 7 C 1 8 C 1 3 2 4SSP2 4 5 intermediate GHG emissions CO2 emissions around current levels until 2050 then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100 2 0 C 2 7 C 2 1 3 5SSP3 7 0 high GHG emissions CO2 emissions double by 2100 2 1 C 3 6 C 2 8 4 6SSP5 8 5 very high GHG emissions CO2 emissions triple by 2075 2 4 C 4 4 C 3 3 5 7The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios 2 SPM 12 but a 2020 commentary described SSP5 8 5 as highly unlikely SSP3 7 0 as unlikely and SSP2 4 5 as likely 26 However a report citing the above commentary shows that RCP8 5 is the best match to the cumulative emissions from 2005 to 2020 27 According to AR6 coauthors the probable temperature rise is in the middle of the scenario spectrum that reaches from 1 5 C to 5 C at about 3 C at the end of the century 18 It is likely that 1 5 C will be reached before 2040 23 The threats from compound impacts are rated higher than in previous IPCC reports 23 The famous hockey stick graph has been extended 23 Extreme weather is expected to increase in line with temperature and compound effects such as heat and drought together may impact more on society 23 The report includes a major change from previous IPCC in the ability of scientists to attribute specific extreme weather events 28 The global carbon budget to keep below 1 5 C is estimated at 500 billion more tonnes of greenhouse gas which would need the whole world to be net zero before 2050 5 Staying within this budget if counting from the beginning of the year 2020 gives a 50 chance to stay below 1 5 C For having a 67 chance the budget is 400 billion tonnes and for an 83 chance it is 300 billion tonnes 24 SPM 29f The report says that rapidly reducing methane emissions is very important to make short term gains to buy time for carbon dioxide emission cuts to take effect 5 Any future warming will increase the occurrence of extreme weather events Even in a 1 5 C temperature rise there will be an increasing occurrence of some extreme events unprecedented in the observational record The likelihood of more rare events increases more 24 SPM 15 The frequency and the intensity of such events will considerably increase with warming as described in the following table 24 SPM 18 Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events with global warming Name of event Climate in 1850 1900 1 C warming 1 5 C warming 2 C warming 4 C warming1 in 10 years heatwave Normal 2 8 times more often 1 2 C hotter 4 1 times more often 1 9 C hotter 5 6 times more often 2 6 C hotter 9 4 times more often 5 1 C hotter1 in 50 years heatwave Normal 4 8 times more often 1 2 C hotter 8 6 times more often 2 0 C hotter 13 9 times more often 2 7 C hotter 39 2 times more often 5 3 C hotter1 in 10 years heavy precipitation event Normal 1 3 times more often 6 7 wetter 1 5 times more often 10 5 wetter 1 7 times more often 14 0 wetter 2 7 times more often 30 2 wetter1 in 10 years drought Normal 1 7 times more often 0 3 sd drier 2 0 times more often 0 5 sd drier 2 4 times more often 0 6 sd drier 4 1 times more often 1 0 sd drier Increase in frequency of extreme events with global warming in the Sixth Assessment Report s Summary for Policymakers 29 Reception Edit In science Edit The publication of the report was during the Northern Hemisphere summer where there was much extreme weather such as a Western North America heat wave flooding in Europe extreme rainfall in India and China and wildfires in several countries 3 30 Some scientists are describing these extreme weather events as clear gaps in the models used for writing the report with the lived experience proving more severe than the consensus science 30 31 In politics Edit After publication of the Working Group 1 report EU Vice President Frans Timmermans said that it is not too late to prevent runaway climate change 32 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the next decade will be pivotal to the future of the planet 33 Rick Spinrad administrator of the US s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that his agency will use the new insights from this IPCC report to inform the work it does with communities to prepare for respond to and adapt to climate change 34 NGO Edit Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg said that the report confirms what we already know from thousands of previous studies and reports that we are in an emergency 35 In media Edit In a front page story dedicated to the report The Guardian described it as starkest warning yet of major inevitable and irreversible climate changes 7 This message was echoed by many media channels after the release of the report 8 According to CTXT the publication that first posted the leaked materials from the report it showed that the global economy must be shifted rapidly away from a reliance on conventional GDP growth but that the report underplays this 15 16 From the United Nations Edit The Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres called the report a code red for humanity 36 Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation amp Vulnerability Working Group 2 report EditThe second part of the report a contribution of working group II WGII was published on 28 February 2022 Entitled Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation amp Vulnerability the full report is 3675 pages plus a 37 page summary for policymakers 37 It contains information on the impacts of climate change on nature and human activity 38 Topics examined included biodiversity loss migration risks to urban and rural activities human health food security water scarcity and energy It also assesses ways to address these risks and highlights how climate resilient development can be part of a larger shift towards sustainability 39 The report found that climate impacts are at the high end of previous estimates with all parts of the world being affected 38 At least 3 3 billion people 40 about 40 of the world population now fall into the most serious category of highly vulnerable with the worst effects in the developing world 41 If emissions continue on their current path Africa will lose 30 of its maize cultivation territory and 50 of its land cultivated for beans 41 One billion people face flooding due to sea level rise 40 Climate change together with other factors also increases the risk of infectious diseases outbreaks like the COVID 19 pandemic 42 The report also cites evidence that China will pay the highest financial cost if the temperature continue to rise The impacts will include food insecurity water scarcity flooding especially in coastal areas where most of the population lives due to higher than average sea level rise and more powerful cyclones At some point part of the country may face wet bulb temperatures higher than humans and other mammals can tolerate more than six hours 43 Overall the report identified 127 different negative impacts of climate change some of them irreversible 40 People can protect themselves to some degree from the effects of climate change which is known as adaptation Overall progress on adaptation has been made in all sectors and regions although this progress is unevenly distributed and many initiatives prioritise immediate risks over longer term transformational changes 39 Still there are feasible and effective adaptation options available and many adaption actions have benefits beyond reducing climate risks including positive effects on the Sustainable Development Goals 44 Figure SPM 4 For example the majority of current adaptations address water related risks adaptations like improved water management water storage and irrigation reduce vulnerability and can also provide economic and ecological benefits 44 SPM C 2 1 Similarly adaptation actions like agroforestry farm and landscape diversification and urban agriculture can increase food availability while at the same time improving sustainability 44 SPM C 2 2 WGII further highlighted the need for conservation in order to maintain biodiversity and mitigate the effects of climate change The report reads Recent analyses drawing on a range of lines of evidence suggest that maintaining the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services at a global scale depends on effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30 to 50 of Earth s land freshwater and ocean areas including currently near natural ecosystems 39 The report was critical of technological approaches to carbon dioxide removal instead indicating that urbanisation could help drive adoption of mitigation strategies such as public transport and renewable energy 41 The report also warns there are high risks associated with strategies such as solar radiation management planting forests in unnatural locations or poorly implemented bioenergy with or without carbon capture and storage 44 SPM 19 20 The report puts considerable emphasis on adaptation limits It states that some human and natural systems already reached soft adaptation limits including human systems in Australia Small Islands America Africa and Europe and some natural systems reach even the hard adaptation limits like part of corals wetland rainforests ecosystems in polar and mountain regions If the temperature rise will reach 1 5 C 2 7 F additional ecosystems and human systems will reach hard adaptation limits including regions depending on glaciers and snow water and small islands At 2 C 3 6 F temperature rise soft limits will be reached by many staple crops in many areas while at 3 C 5 4 F hard limits will be reached by parts of Europe 44 SPM 26 27 In line with the emphasis on adaptation limits the report also highlights loss and damage meaning negative consequences of climate change that cannot be avoided through adaptation The report states that such losses and damages are already widespread droughts floods and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and a mass extinction is already underway 38 Taking near term actions to limit warming to below 1 5 C would substantially reduce future losses and damages but cannot eliminate them all 39 Previously rich countries have resisted taking responsibility for these lossess 41 The report states that even a temporary overshoot of the 1 5 degree limit will lead to negative effects on humans and ecosystems According to the report Depending on the magnitude and duration of overshoot some impacts will cause release of additional greenhouse gases medium confidence and some will be irreversible even if global warming is reduced high confidence 44 SPM 20 Climate resilient development will be more difficult if the global temperature will rise by 1 5 degrees above pre industrial levels while if it will rise by more than 2 degrees it will become impossible in some regions and sub regions 44 SPM 32 33 35 Although the report s outlook is bleak its conclusion argues that there is still time to limit warming to 1 5 C 2 7 F by drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emission but such action must be taken immediately 41 Moreover climate resilient development can have both adaptation and mitigation benefits but it requires international cooperation and collaborations with local communities and organisations 44 SPM 32 33 35 Reactions Edit Responding to the report Antonio Guterres Secretary General of the United Nations called it an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership 38 and the facts are undeniable the world s biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home 45 The United States special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry said We have seen the increase in climate fuelled extreme events and the damage that is left behind lives lost and livelihoods ruined The question at this point is not whether we can altogether avoid the crisis it is whether we can avoid the worst consequences 38 Environmentalist Inger Andersen commented Nature can be our saviour but only if we save it first 41 The report was published during the first week of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine 46 In the context of the conflict the Ukrainian delegation connected the Russian aggression to the global dependency on oil and a Russian official Oleg Anisimov apologized for the conflict despite the possible repercussions 46 47 The Ukrainian delegation also called for news reporting on the war not to overshadow the WGII report 40 See also Environmental impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of UkraineClimate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group 3 report EditThe report was presented on 4 April 2022 48 The structure of the report was adopted in 2017 49 Some observers are worried that the conclusions might be watered down considering the way the reports are adopted 50 According to The Observer some countries have sought to make changes that would weaken the final warnings 50 WGIII found that net anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since 2010 across all major sectors globally An increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas Emissions reductions in CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry energy supply transport agriculture and buildings 51 Areas of focus Edit Matters covered by the report include Trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions Emission reduction pathways that match up with long term net zero goals Shorter term pathways for emission reductions and their compatibility with national development objectives for job creation competitiveness poverty sustainable development and more Social aspects of greenhouse gas emission reductions including objectives to meet human needs under the UN Sustainable Development Goals Energy systems Agriculture forestry and other land uses Cities and other human settlements Buildings Transportation Industry Costs and opportunities across different economic sectors National and sub national policies and institutions International cooperation Investment and finance Innovation technology and technological transfer Connections between sustainable development and the response to climate change Important findings Edit The report uses some new approaches like to include different social aspects the participation of youth indigenous people cities businesses in the solution 52 SPM 2 3 It states that International cooperation is a critical enabler for achieving ambitious climate change mitigation goals 52 SPM 62 International cooperation has positive and measurable effect on climate mitigation It provides critical support for many mitigation measures Participation in international agreements leads to adoption of climate policies For preventing global temperature from rising more than 2 degrees above the preindustrial level international cooperation needs to be much stronger than now as many developing countries need support from other countries higher than present for strong climate action 53 According to the report demand side mitigation measures can reduce GHG emissions by 40 70 by the year 2050 compared to scenarios in which countries will fulfill its national pledges given before 2020 For being implemented successfully those measures should be linked with improving basic wellbeing for all 52 SPM 44 The report concluded that in order to achieve net zero emissions it is necessary to employ carbon dioxide removal technologies stating All global pathways that limit warming to 1 5 C with no or limited overshoot and those that limit warming to 2 C involve rapid and deep and in most cases immediate GHG emission reductions in all sectors Modelled mitigation strategies to achieve these reductions include transitioning from fossil fuels without CCS to very low or zero carbon energy sources such as renewables or fossil fuels with CCS demand side measures and improving efficiency reducing non CO2 emissions and deploying carbon dioxide removal CDR methods to counterbalance residual GHG emissions 54 55 reiterating the finding of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1 5 C released in October 2018 that stated All pathways that limit global warming to 1 5 C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal CDR on the order of 100 1000 GtCO2 over the 21st century CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and in most cases achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1 5 C 56 57 The report compares different methods of carbon dioxide removal CDR including agroforestry reforestation blue carbon management restoration of peatland and others 52 SPM 47 Cities have great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions Without any action cities are supposed to emit 65 GtCO2 eq by the year 2050 With full scale mitigation action the emissions could be brought down to near zero with the worst case scenario assuming a non mitigatable remainder of 3 GtCO2 eq City planning supporting mixed use of space transit walking cycling and sharing vehicles can reduce urban emissions by 23 26 Urban forests lakes and other blue and green infrastructure can reduce emissions directly and indirectly e g by reducing the energy demand for cooling 58 Buildings received significant attention Buildings emitted 21 of global GHG emissions in the year 2019 80 90 of their emissions can be cut while helping to achieve other Sustainable Development Goals The report introduces a new scheme for reducing GHG emissions in buildings SER Sufficiency Efficiency Renewable Sufficiency measures do not need very complex technology energy supply maintenance or replacement during the life of the building Those include natural ventilation green roofs white walls mixed use of spaces collective use of devices etc 59 There are multiple links between emissions from buildings and emissions from other sectors including those discussed in chapters 6 7 8 10 and 11 Reducing GHG emissions from buildings is linked to sharing economy and circular economy 60 The report found that there is no evidence that sustainable development requires fossil fuels 61 Climate journalist Amy Westervelt reacting to the report described this finding as one of the most radical debunking a common refrain by energy poverty advocates that development requires use of fossil fuels 61 The IPCC found that decent living standards could be achieved using less energy than prior consensus assumed According to the report for reaching well being for all the required energy consumption is between 20 and 50 GJ cap 1 yr 1 depending on context More equitable income distribution can lower emissions Mitigation pathways based on low demand and high efficiency can achieve decent living standards and well being for all Pathways based on reducing consumption involving sustainable development have less negative outcomes than pathways based on high consumption and narrow mitigation Table TS 29 shows that mitigation measures in the urban buildings AFOLU and transport sectors have considerably more synergies and less trade offs with sustainable development goals than measures in the energy sector while the latter less trade offs also holds true for the industry sector According to table TS30 narrow mitigation can increase habitat loss by 600 while avoiding habitat degradation by around 95 Mitigation with sustainable development did not harm forest cover and biodiversity 62 International cooperation gives the possibility to achieve climate change mitigation without compromising sustainable development goals 63 The report mentions some improvement in global climate action For example the rate of deforestation slowed after 2010 and the total forest cover increased in the latest years due to reforestation in Europe Asia and North America 64 Responses Edit The Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres said the report described litany of broken climate promises by policy makers and in his remarks called for more action saying Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels 65 AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023 EditThe synthesis report which summarises the entire document was finalised at the 58th plenary meeting of the panel at Interlaken in March 2023 and was published on 20 March 2023 It includes a summary for policymakers and is the basis for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP28 in Dubai 66 Main findings Edit In the report there are guidelines for both responses in the near term and in the long term According to the report the main source of the increase in global warming is due to the increase in CO2 emissions stating that it is likely or very likely to exceed 1 5 C under higher emission scenarios 67 The panel published a longer report 68 a summary for policymakers 69 a presentation 70 and a short Headline Statements document 71 summarizing its findings in 3 4 pages Among other it contains the next points Climate change is a threat to humans and planet There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure Sustainability Climate action is enabled by international cooperation including access to required financing particularly for vulnerable groups inclusive governance and coordinated policies Clear goals diverse knowledge finance technology are enablers for climate action For achieving climate goals financing need to increase many fold There is sufficient global capital but there are barriers for redirecting it to climate action Choices made in next years will have impacts for thousands of years Humans mainly through emissions of greenhouse gases certainly caused global warming Those emissions continue to rise coming from unsustainable energy use land use consumption with unequal contributions between regions countries and individuals Global temperature rose by 1 1 C from 1850 1900 to 2011 2020 Human caused climate change caused widespread and fast changes all over the world what has led to severe negative impacts on nature and people Communities who have contributed the least to climate change are disproportionately affected Adaptation has increased but adaptation gaps exist and will continue to grow at current rate of action Some ecosystems and regions have reached their adaptation limits Maladaptation can be avoided by good planning and implementation with co benefits Current financing is insufficient for adaptation especially in low income countries Mitigation has increased but even if NDCs announced by October 2021 will be met warming will likely exceed 1 5 C in the 21st century and it is hard to limit warming to 2 C There are gaps between really implemented policies and NDCs Financing is insufficient to meet mitigation goals More greenhouse gas emissions will cause more global warming reaching the 1 5 C limit in the near term More warming will intensify many concurrent negative impacts With more warming long term negative impacts are many times higher than current there is more likelihood of abrupt and or irreversible changes risks low likelihood events with very large negative impacts losses and damages climatic and non climatic impacts increasingly interacting compound and cascading more complex and difficult to manage Adaptation options will become less effective more human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits Projected CO2 emissions from currently existing fossil fuel infrastructure would exceed the carbon budget for 1 5 C For limiting warming to 1 5 C and to 2 C we need rapid deep in most cases immediate GHG emissions reductions in all sectors by 2030 and reaching net zero CO2 emissions in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s respectively If warming exceeds 1 5 C it could be reduced again by negative emissions but this would require additional use of carbon dioxide removal with bigger feasibility and sustainability problems The overshoot would result in negative impacts some irreversible additional risks for human and natural systems all growing with the magnitude and duration of the overshoot Fast far reaching system transitions in all sectors and systems including significant upscaling of mitigation and adaptation options that are available are necessary to secure sustainability Climate action in the needed scale in this decade would reduce losses and damages for humans and ecosystems and deliver many co benefits Near term actions need potentially disruptive changes but they can be softened by enabling policies Accelerated and equitable climate action is critical to sustainable development and have more synergies than trade offs with it Equity climate justice social justice inclusion and just transition enable climate action Adaptation requires increased support to people vulnerable to climate change There are many possibilities for reducing emission intensive consumption including through lifestyle changes with co benefits In the presentation page 9 the panel called to cut GHG emissions by 50 by the year 2030 70 In the Longer Report at pages 68 70 are presented 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