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Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey

February 16, 2024

Coal, cars and lorries vent more than a third of Turkey's six hundred million tonnes[2] of annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are mostly carbon dioxide and part of the cause of climate change in Turkey. The nation's coal-fired power stations emit the most carbon dioxide, and other significant sources are road vehicles running on petrol or diesel. After coal[3] and oil the third most polluting fuel is fossil gas; which is burnt in Turkey's gas-fired power stations, homes and workplaces. Much methane is belched by livestock; cows alone produce half of the greenhouse gas from agriculture in Turkey.

Coal-fired power stations, such as the ZETES power stations, are the largest source of greenhouse gas.[1]: 459 

Economists say that major reasons for Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions are subsidies for coal-fired power stations,[4]: 18  and the lack of a price on carbon pollution.[5]: 1  The 2022 National Energy Plan forecast that 1.7 GW more local coal power would be connected to the grid by 2030.[6]: 15  Even without a carbon price renewable electricity in Turkey is cheaper than electricity generated by coal and gas,[7] so the Chamber of Engineers says that without subsidies coal-fired power stations would be gradually shutdown. The Right to Clean Air Platform argues that there should be a legal limit on fine airborne dust, much of which comes from car and lorry exhaust. Low-emission zones in cities would both reduce local air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions.

Turkey's share of current global greenhouse gas emissions is 1.3%.[8] Annual per person emissions since the late-2010s have varied around six and a half tonnes,[9] which is about the global average.[10] Although greenhouse gas totals are reported some details, such as the split between cars and lorries, are not published. Turkey has not yet sent a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.[11]

The government supports reforestation, electric vehicle manufacturing and low-carbon electricity generation; and is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053. But it has no plan for coal phase out, and its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement on limiting climate change is not to reduce emissions but instead an increase of over 30% by 2030.[12] Unless Turkey's climate and energy policies are changed the 2053 net zero target will be missed[13] and exporters of high carbon products, such as cement and electricity, will have to pay carbon tariffs.[14] In 2023 there was misinformation about a draft climate law which aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting carbon emission trading.[15]

Estimates ahead of official inventory edit

The EU Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research has estimated 2022 GHG to be 688 million tonnes.[8]

 
As in most countries carbon dioxide, mostly from burning fossil fuels, is the main long-term GHG

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are by far the biggest part of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.[16] Climate Trace use space-based measurements of carbon dioxide to quantify large emission sources, like major coal-fired power stations in Turkey.[17] According to them 730 million tonnes of GHG was emitted in 2022.[18]

Monitoring, reporting and verification edit

 
Burning coal, petrol, diesel and natural gas is putting far more carbon dioxide into the air than forests can take out. There is some correlation with the economic history of Turkey, such as a dip during the 2001 economic crisis.

Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) includes sharing information and lessons learned, which strengthens the trust of international climate finance donors.[19] The Turkish government's Statistical Institute (Turkstat) follows the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines, so uses production-based GHG accounting to compile the country's greenhouse gas inventory. As of 2015, using consumption-based accounting would give a total over 10% higher,[20] as manufacturing the products imported to Turkey emits more GHG than manufacturing its exports.[21] Turkstat sends the data and accompanying report to the UNFCCC each April, about 15 months after the end of the reported year.[22][a] Emissions from fuels sold in the country for international aviation and shipping are accounted separately in reports to the UNFCCC, and are not included in a country's total.[1]: 46  In 2021 jet kerosene, supplied at Turkish airports and burnt by international flights, emitted 8.39 Mt CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent);[1]: 60  and diesel oil and residual fuel oil from Turkish ports powering international shipping 1.89 Mt CO2e.[1]: 62 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines three methodological tiers to measure emissions. Tier 1 uses global defaults and simplified assumptions, so is the easiest but least accurate. Tier 2 uses country specific values and more detailed data. Tier 3 uses the most detailed data and modelling, so is the most difficult to compile but the most accurate. To make best use of human resources each nation may decide to only use higher tiers to estimate its particular "key categories". Turkstat selects these categories depending on either the absolute level of emissions from that category, or whether it is trending, or uncertain.[1]: 439  For example, N2O from wastewater treatment and discharge was a key category for 2021 solely because of its quickly rising emissions.[1]: 440  Nevertheless, most of the key categories selected in 2021 are the largest emitting sectors, cement production for example. Turkey uses Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology for some key categories, for example a power plant might analyse the lignite it burns, which differs from mine to mine.[1]: 72  Although road transport is a key category, it is not split between cars and lorries as is done in some countries. In 2021 the UNFCCC asked Turkey why it reported negligible indirect GHGs (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds and sulfur oxides) in 2018.[24]: 12 

Greenhouse gas sources edit

 
Coal-fired power stations emit the most, followed by cars and lorries.

Turkey emitted 524 Mt of GHG in 2020,[16] which is higher than would be sustainable under a global carbon budget.[25][26] Per-person gross emissions are above the world average,[27] at 6.3 t in 2020.[16] Turkey's cumulative CO2 emissions are estimated at around 11 Gt, which is less than 1% of the world's cumulative total (Turkey's population is about 1% of world population).[21] Turkey's emissions can be looked at from different perspectives to the standard IPCC classification: for example a 2021 study by Izmir University of Economics estimated that food, "from farm to fork", accounts for about a third of national emissions.[28] This is similar to the global emissions share of food.[29]

Fossil fuels edit

See also: Energy in Turkey
 
Emissions from gas increased, but remain far below coal. Emissions from oil products, such as petrol and diesel, increased more slowly than gas and coal.

Burning coal in Turkey was the largest contributor to fossil-fuel emissions in 2021, followed by oil and natural gas.[1]: 57  That year, Turkey's energy sector emitted over 70% of the country's GHG,[16] mostly through electricity generation, followed by transport.[b][1]: 43  In contrast agriculture contributed 13% of emissions and industrial processes and product use (IPPU) also 13%.[9] Carbon capture and storage is not economically viable, since the country has no carbon pricing.[30] The GHG emission intensity of energy consumption is higher than in the EU.[31]

From 2023 Turkey expects to greatly increase gas production.[32] In 2021, IEA head Fatih Birol called for fossil-fuel producing countries to include limits on methane leaks in their climate pledges,[33] for example the United States is doing this.[34]

Production of public heat and electricity emitted 148 megatonnes of CO2e in 2021,[35]: table 1s1 cell B10  mainly through coal burning.[c] In 2020, emission intensity was about 440 gCO2/kWh,[37] around the average for G20 countries.[38] Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal.[39]: 10 

 
Pollution over Ankara. Coal is still burnt to heat older buildings in cities.

Subsidised coal burnt by poor families gives off black carbon (a contributor to climate change) and other local air pollution. Residential fuel, such as natural gas and coal, contributed 50 Mt CO2e in 2021.[1]: 135  Burning fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas to heat commercial and institutional buildings emitted 14 Mt CO2e in 2021.[1]: 133  According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, "Our country aims to use our energy resources efficiently, effectively and in a way that has a minimum impact on the environment within the scope of the sustainable development objectives."[40][d]

Coal-fired power stations edit

 
Some old power stations like Yatağan pollute but are subsidized.

Turkey's coal-fired power stations are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey at 103 Mt (about 20% of national emissions – see pie chart) in 2021.[35]: table 1.A(a)s1 cell G26 "solid fuels"  Over a kilogram of CO2 is emitted for every KWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal-fired power stations.[41]: 177  If operated at the targeted capacity factor, planned units at Afşin Elbistan would add over 60 Mt CO2 per year,[42]: 319  more than one-tenth of the country's entire emissions.[43][e][f]

Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local lignite or imported bituminous (hard) coal. Coal analysis of Turkish lignite shows that it is high in ash and moisture, low in energy value and high in emission intensity.[44] So Turkish lignite emits more CO2 than other countries' lignites.[44] Although imported hard coal has a lower emission intensity when burnt, because it is transported much further its life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions are similar to lignite.[41]: 177  When carbon dioxide (CO2) from coal used by industry and buildings, and methane emissions from coal mining, are added to those from coal-fired electricity generation, over 30% of Turkey's annual emissions come from coal. In 2021, burning coal emitted 153 Mt CO2 in total.[1]: 57  Methane leaks from coal mines in 2021 were equivalent to 6 Mt CO2.[1]: 141  Eren Holding (via Eren Enerji's coal-fired ZETES power stations) emits over 2% of Turkey's GHG, and İÇDAŞ emits over 1% from its Bekirli coal-fired power stations.[45] Emissions of black carbon are not published for individual power stations,[46]: 2  as Turkey has not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol on air pollution.[47]

Gas-fired power stations edit

Gas-fired power stations emitted 46 Mt CO2e in 2021.[35]: table 1.A(a)s1 cell G27  It is difficult for them to compete with coal partly due to the lack of a carbon price.[48] Electricity generation from gas tends to increase when hydropower is limited by droughts.[49] Import costs for natural gas are expected to fall during the mid-2020s with the start of production from the Sakarya Gas Field in the Black Sea.[50]

Transport fuel edit

 
A traffic jam in Istanbul, one of the few major European cities without a low-emission zone.[51]

Transport emitted 91 Mt of CO2e in 2021,[1]: 104  a bit over one tonne per person. Road transport in the country dominated emissions with 86 Mt (including agricultural vehicles).[1]: 105  Over three-quarters of Turkey's road-transport emissions come from diesel fuel.[1]: 108  Average emissions of new cars in 2016 were about 120 g CO2/km[52]: 17  Although the EU has a 2021 target of 95 g of CO2/km, Turkey has no target.[52]: 17 In 2018, Turkey had no measures in place to reduce the well-to-wheel impact of petrol and diesel vehicles,[53] except for a requirement for 3% ethanol in fuel (compared to 10% in the EU).[54] However more use of biofuels may not be sustainable.[54] Fuel quality and emissions standards for new cars are less strict than those in the EU;[55]: 102  and in 2019 about 45% of cars were over 10 years old and energy-inefficient.[52]: 16  The market share of electric vehicles was below world average in 2020.[56]: 113  Domestic flights[g] emitted 3 Mt of CO2e in 2021[1]: 112  and their VAT rate was cut to 1%.[57]

Industry edit

In 2021, Turkey's industrial sector emitted 75 Mt (13%) of GHG.[9] But, as of 2019, estimates of the effects of government policy on industrial emissions are lacking.[58]: 28  IEA head Fatih Birol has said that the country has a lot of potential for renewable energy.[59] Some sugar factories, such as some owned by Türkşeker[60] and Konya Seker, burn coal for the heat needed to make sugar and sometimes to generate electricity.[61] Some industrial companies reach the Global Reporting Initiative GRI 305 emissions standard.[62]

Iron and steel edit

The European steel industry has complained that steel imports from Turkey are unfair competition, because they are not subject to a carbon tax,[63] and alleges that the natural gas used to produce some steel is subsidised.[64] Turkish steel, primarily from minimills, averages about one tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel produced.[65] Although this average is less polluting than China,[65] three steelworks—Erdemir, İsdemir and Kardemir—use blast furnaces and thus emit more than those using electric arc furnaces.[66] The future Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in the European Green Deal may include a carbon tariff on Turkish steel produced in blast furnaces,[67] but the CBAM could help arc furnaces compete against products such as Chinese steel.[68]

Cement edit

Turkey is the sixth-largest cement producer in the world and the largest in Europe.[69] In 2020 Turkey exported 30 million tonnes, worth almost US$1 billion,[69] and was the largest source of EU cement imports.[70] Cement (clinker) production in 2021 emitted 44 Mt CO2, 8% of the country's total GHG.[1]: 155  Climate Trace has estimated the contributions of individual factories, sometimes from kiln heat visible from satellites,[71] and says that Gönen and Silifke cement plants emitted more than 1.5 Mt each in 2022.[72]

Turkey's construction sector contracted at the end of 2018[73] and so used less cement.[74] Cement producers in the EU have to buy EU carbon credits, and say the CBAM is needed to protect them from unfair competition from Turkish companies as they pay no carbon price.[75] The CBAM could be up to 50% on the cement price.[76]

Other edit

The offial estimate for 2021 soda ash production was under 1 Mt but the emission factor used in the calculation is confidential.[1]: 190  Climate Trace estimated 2022 at over 3 Mt,[18] but have very low confidence in the accuracy of their estimate.[77] Kazan Soda Elektrik and Eti Soda have published figures for 2019 and 2021 respectively.

Agriculture and fishing edit

 
Almost half of agricultural emissions are from cows.

Agriculture accounted for 72 Mt which was 13% of Turkey's total 2021 GHG, including 61% of its methane emissions and 78% of its nitrous oxide emissions.[9] These are due primarily to enteric fermentation, agricultural soils, and fertilizer management.[78] Cattle emit almost half of the GHG from agriculture.[1]: 240, 257  - (Total 72 Mt: 27 Mt enteric fermentation 61% of 9 Mt manure management = 32 Mt).

About three quarters of red meat production in Turkey is beef.[79] Turks eat an average of 15 kilograms (33 lb) of beef per person each year (which is more than the world average[80]), and the country produced 1 million tonnes of beef in 2021.[81] There are about 18 million cattle (including 8 million dairy cattle and a few buffalo), 45 million sheep and 11 million goats in the country: livestock are subsidized[81] and some farmers are given "diesel payments".[82] US$411 million worth of cattle were imported in 2020.[83] VAT on meat and dairy is 1% like other "staple foods". Being ruminants sheep, goats and cattle belch methane. Fertilizers can emit the GHG nitrous oxide, but estimates of the effects of government policy on the agricultural and waste sectors' emissions are lacking.[58]: 28  Production of plastic, such as for in agriculture, may release significant GHG in future.[84] National GHG inventories do not yet include bottom trawling, as the IPCC has yet to issue accounting guidelines.[85]

Waste edit

The government says that waste sector contributed 15 Mt (3%) of Turkey's 2021 GHG.[9] However Climate Trace estimates that it was over 145 Mt (almost 20%) in 2022.[86] It is unclear why there is such an enormous difference.

Landfilling is the most common waste-disposal method.[87] Climate Trace estimate Odayeri (even though it has a biogas facility[88]) on the European side of Istanbul to be the biggest waste single emitter at over 6 Mt in 2022.[18] Organic waste sent to landfills emits methane, but the country is working to improve sustainable waste and resource management.[89] One third of organic waste is composted,[90] but others argue for incineration.[87]

Mitigation edit

 

Turkey's GHG emissions are not in line with the Paris Agreement objective to limit temperature rise to well below 2 °C. According to Climate Action Tracker, if all government targets were like Turkey's, global warming would exceed 4 °C by the end of the 21st century.[91]

A long-term climate change mitigation strategy is lacking as of 2023.[92]: 116  The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says a faster decarbonisation is needed, and emissions per person per year would need to be cut by more than half to about 2–2.5 t CO2e by 2030.[93]: XXV  The government intended to complete its review of long-term (2030 to 2050) policy,[94]: 42 [h] and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023,[97] but it did not.[98] Turkey argues that as a developing country it should be exempt from net emission reduction targets, but other countries do not agree.[97]: 59 

Unless Turkey's energy policy is changed, European Union (EU) emissions per person are forecast to fall below Turkey's during the 2020s.[93]: 22  Since the EU is Turkey's main trading partner, a comparison with targets in the European Green Deal is important to help Turkish businesses avoid future EU carbon tariffs on exports such as steel[99] and cement.[100] Public and private sector working groups discussed the European Green Deal,[101] and the Trade Ministry published an action plan in response to its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.[102]

Path to net zero edit

See also: Climate change litigation § Turkey
 
Greenhouse gas target
 
Greenhouse gas per person, before and after absorption by forests. The greater net dip in 2019 is because forest cover was resurveyed and found to be more than previously thought.

Turkey is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053.[103] But Climate Action Tracker said in 2021 that critical details on scope, target architecture and transparency are missing from the net zero goal.[104] The World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning.[105]

Turkey's Energy Efficiency Action Act, which came into force in 2018, commits nearly US$11 billion to efficiency and could significantly limit emissions.[106] And the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is investing in climate governance[107] and energy efficiency, for example in smaller companies.[108] In 2021 the government pledged to prepare a new plan for reducing emissions,[109] but as of 2022 there is no plan to reduce coal use.[110]

Later in 2021 Istanbul Policy Center, a thinktank which is part of Sabancı University, released a summary of their own plan.[111] The plan says that net zero by 2050 is possible and that the key to decarbonization is increasing the share of solar and wind in electricity generation. It says that CO2 emissions could be reduced by 32% from 2018 to 2030. And that the share of renewable resources other than hydroelectricity in installed power could be increased from 17 per cent in 2018 to 50 per cent in 2030 and 77 per cent in 2050. According to the plan, Turkey could increase the total wind/solar installed power to 35 GW by 2030 by constructing an average of 3 GW of solar and 2.5 GW of wind power plants every year.[112] The plan says that gross CO2 emissions could be reduced to 132 million tons by 2050.[113]

Energy edit

See also: Energy in Turkey § Energy transition

Emissions could be reduced considerably by switching from coal to existing gas-fired power stations:[114] as there is enough generating capacity to allow the decommissioning of all coal-fired power stations and still meet peak energy demand, as long as hydropower as well as gas is used to meet peaks in demand.[115] By the mid-2020s the gas price is forecast to have fallen considerably,[116] as Turkey's production from the Black Sea will be more than enough to meet national demand.[50] However, according to a 2021 study the electricity sector is financially unable to transform itself in response to the CBAM, and "to avoid market failure, the government must step in by designing a general decarbonization program for electricity production in Turkey".[117] A solar panel factory began production in 2020;[118] and solar and wind power are the cheapest generating technologies,[116] but are underdeveloped.[119] Fossil fuel subsidies risk carbon lock-in, but if they were scrapped wind and solar power could expand faster.[120]: 7  Relying simply on battery storage would be insufficient to decarbonise electricity, as periods of high and low demand last for two to three weeks.[121] Ramping down nuclear power in Turkey will be technically possible, at times when solar or wind increases or electricity demand drops, but would be expensive because of high fixed costs and lost sales revenue.[122]: 72  However, after upgrading,[123] repowering[124] and adding a small amount of pumped-storage hydroelectricity,[125] there are enough hydropower dams in Turkey to provide dispatchable generation to balance variable renewable energy, even allowing for more frequent droughts in Turkey in the future because of climate change.[120]: 7  Solar farms are being co-located with hydropower to maintain generation in case of drought.[126] Geothermal-electric capacity totalled 1.6 GW in 2020 and more is planned, but the lifetime CO2 emissions of some Turkish geothermal power is not yet clear.[127][128] National and international investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency are being made; for example, the EBRD is supporting the installation of smart meters.[129] Along with cement the electricity sector is forecast to be the hardest hit by the CBAM.[117] According to thinktank Ember building new wind and solar power is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal.[130] But they say that there are obstacles to building utility scale solar plants such as: lack of new capacity for solar power at transformers, a 50-MW cap for any single solar power plant's installed capacity, and large consumers being unable to sign long term power purchase agreements for new solar installations.[130]

Buildings edit

Buildings in Turkey are the largest energy consumers, and there are substantial opportunities for energy savings in both new build and renovations.[131] A typical residential building emits almost 50 kgCO2eq/m2/year, mostly due to the energy used by residents.[132] The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said that more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and that tax incentives offered for this would create jobs.[97]: 62  Turkey was a co-leader of the group discussing zero-carbon buildings at the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit, and the city of Eskişehir has pledged to convert all existing buildings to zero emissions by 2050.[133][134] Such energy efficiency improvements can be made in the same programme as increasing resilience to earthquakes in Turkey.[135] However, in 2020 gas was subsidized.[4]: 18  Increasing the proportion of passive houses has been suggested,[136] as has adopting some EU building standards.[137]

In rural areas without a piped gas supply, heat pumps could be an alternative to wood, coal and bottled gas: but buying a heat pump is rare as it is very expensive for householders as there is no subsidy.[138]: 29  However, owners of larger properties such as shopping centres, schools and government buildings have shown more interest.[139]

Direct geothermal heating (not to be confused with heat pumps) installed capacity totaled 3.5 GW thermal (GWt) in 2020, with the potential for 60 GWt, but it is unclear how much is low-carbon.[127] According to a 2020 report commissioned by the environment ministry and the EBRD further research on Turkish geothermal is needed: specifically how to limit carbon dioxide venting to the atmosphere.[140]: 283, 284 

There is no data on the carbon intensity of cement.[141]: 13  Emissions from cement production could be lessened by reducing its clinker content[142]—for example, by making Limestone Calcined Clay Cement, which is only half clinker. The second-largest reduction could be made by switching half the fuel from hard coal and petroleum coke (petcoke) to a mixture of rubber from waste tires, refuse-derived fuel and biomass.[143] Although the country has enough of these materials, most cement kilns (there are 54[1]: 156 ) use coal, petcoke or lignite as their primary energy source.[1]: 154  More cross-laminated timber could be used for building, instead of concrete.[144]

Further decarbonisation of cement production would depend heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS).[145][146]: 109  Despite Turkey's earthquake risk, CCS may be technically feasible in a salt dome near Lake Tuz[147] or in Diyarbakır Province.[148] Thinktank Ember suggest that rooftop solar should be mandatory on new buildings, and say that installation on apartment block roofs is hindered by bureaucracy.[149]

Transport edit

In the 2000s transport emission intensity improved, but this gain was partially lost in the 2010s due to the growing preference for sport utility vehicles.[150] Although Turkey has several manufacturers of electric buses[151] and many are exported,[152] fewer than 100 were in use in the country in 2021.[153] Ebikes are manufactured,[154] but cities could be improved to make cycling in Turkey safer.[155]

Although Turkey's ferries (unlike some other countries') are still fossil-fuelled,[156] the world's first all-electric tugboat began working in Istanbul's harbour in 2020,[157] electric lorries are manufactured,[158] and an electric excavator is planned for 2022.[159] Eti Mine Works produces small quantities of lithium carbonate locally, and plans to increase production for use in batteries. A battery factory is planned[160] by Aspilsan, which is part of Turkey's defence industry,[161] and Ford Otosan started making electric vans in 2022.[162] Over a quarter of a million charging stations are planned by 2030.[163] Building codes are being changed to mandate electric car charging points in new shopping centres and car parks.[164]

Partially due to high import tariffs, very few electric cars are sold.[165] Chinese EVs are subject to a 50% import tariff.[166] In early 2023 less than 3% of cars sold were electric.[167] Turkey's automotive industry makes electric cars locally,[168] which have incentives.[169] However the special consumption tax(Turkish) is 10% or more. As well as cutting GHG, creation of a domestic electric vehicle market by TOGG is hoped to reduce vehicle running costs,[170] create jobs,[52]: 76  and reduce oil imports.[171] Introducing smart charging is important to avoid overloading Turkish electricity distribution networks.[52]: 74 

Petrol and diesel taxes are lower than in the neighbouring EU[172]: 17  but higher than in oil-producing countries to the south.[173] The legality of ridesharing companies is unclear,[174][175] and taxis could be better integrated with public transport.[176] However Istanbul taxi regulations are politically deadlocked.[177] The central government has drafted enabling regulations for low-emission zones,[178] and at least one municipality is considering creating one.[179] According to Shura three-quarters of emissions in the transport sector come from road freight transport.[180] Sales of fossil-fuelled road vehicles will be banned from 2040.[181][182]

Using International Civil Aviation Organization methodology Turkish Airlines offers carbon offsets certified to Verified Carbon Standard and Gold Standard.[183] Turkey is participating in the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.[184]

Industry edit

As of 2022, hydrofluorocarbon smuggling from Turkey to the EU remains a problem.[185] Electric motors in small and medium-sized enterprises are becoming more efficient.[186] Low-carbon hydrogen could help with hard to decarbonise industries, such as cement and petrochemicals, but further research is needed.[121] As of 2021 there are almost no supporters of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, to provide information to investors about the risks of climate change to companies.[187] The Turkish Industry and Business Association has asked the EU for funding to help strengthen alignment with the CBAM.[188]

Agriculture and fishing edit

Climate-smart agriculture is being studied[189] and financed,[190][191] and agrivoltaics has been suggested as suitable for maize and some other shade-loving vegetables.[192] President Erdoğan has called for more marine protected areas in international waters.[193] There are no international waters adjacent to Turkey's territorial waters, of which about 4% is marine protected area.[194]

Carbon sinks edit

See also: Reforestation § Turkey
 
These existing trees are being added to by reforestation.

Turkey has 23 million hectares of forest covering quarter of the country, though over 40% is degraded woodland.[195] Turkey's forests are its main carbon sink and offset 34 Mt of the country's emissions in 2021.[1]: 287  The government said in 2015 that by 2050 "forests are envisioned to stretch across over four-fifths of the country's territory".[196] However warmer and drier air in the south and west may make it difficult to sustain the present forest cover.[197] But, despite regional variations, forests are expected to remain an overall carbon sink.[198] Almost all Turkey's forest land belongs to the state and cannot be privatised. Private afforestation permits have been issued however, to encourage tree planting in areas where tree density is low.[199] Civil society organizations, such as the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion and the Foresters' Association of Turkey, are also encouraging reforestation.[200] In 2019, an annual "National Forestation Day" every 11 November was established by President Erdoğan.[201] Junipers have been suggested for reforestation because of their hardiness, but are said to need help to regrow quickly.[202] But, according to Ege University associate professor Serdar Gökhan Senol, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry sometimes replants when it should wait for regrowth instead.[203]

Three-quarters of Turkey's land is deficient in soil organic matter.[204] This contains soil organic carbon, which is estimated to total 3.5 billion tonnes at 30 centimetres (12 in) soil depth, with 36 t/ha in agricultural fields.[205] Soil organic carbon has been mapped:[206][205] this is important because carbon emissions from soil are directly related to climate change, but vary according to soil interaction[207]: 107  with low levels of soil organic carbon increasing the risk of soil erosion.[208] Turkey is a major producer of marble; it has been suggested that waste from the industry could capture carbon by calcium looping.[209]

Economics edit

See also: Air pollution in Turkey § Economics
 
Recent economic growth emits less carbon dioxide

During the late 20th and early 21st centuries, growth of the Turkish economy, and to a lesser extent population, caused increased emissions from electricity generation,[210]: 10, 11  industry and construction,[211]: 59–62  as described by the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.[212] And from the 1990s to the 2010s they were correlated with electricity generation.[213] But during the 2010s economic growth and the increase in emissions decoupled somewhat.[97]: 59  Since the 1970s the energy intensity of economic growth has fluctuated around 1kWh per 2011 USD,[214] whereas the carbon intensity of energy has fallen from 300g per kWh to 200g per kWh.[215] In 2018, the government forecast that GHG emissions were expected to increase in parallel with GDP growth over the next decade.[216]: 30  Once economic growth resumes after the debt crisis that began in 2018 and the country's COVID-19 recession, energy demand is also expected to grow. Nevertheless, Carbon Tracker says that it will be possible to decouple economic growth and emissions, by expanding the country's renewable-energy capacity and investing in energy efficiency with a sustainable energy policy.[211]: 63 

On average the consumption-based CO2 emissions of one of the richest 10% of people in Turkey is more than double that of someone in the rest of the population,[217] as richer people tend to fly more and buy gasoline-fuelled SUVs.[218] Nevertheless 2019 studies disagree on whether Turkey's high income inequality causes higher CO2 emissions.[219][220]

While the government has pledged to buy 30,000 locally made electric cars,[221] there were few explicit green measures in the 2020 package designed to aid recovery from the country's COVID-19 recession. On the contrary the VAT rate for domestic aviation was cut, and oil and gas were discounted.[222] Almost all the stimulus was detrimental to the environment; according to a 2021 report, only Russia's was less green.[223] Turkey has received climate finance from the Global Environment Facility, the Clean Technology Fund, and various bilateral funding, but is not eligible for the Green Climate Fund because of its status as a developed country under the UNFCCC.[94]: 43 

Worldwide, marginal abatement cost studies show that improving the energy efficiency of buildings and replacing fossil fuelled power plants with renewables are usually the most cost-effective ways of reducing carbon emissions.[224] A 2017 study concluded that a US$50/tonne carbon price (similar to the 2021 EU price) would reduce emissions by about 20%, mainly by discouraging coal.[225] A more detailed 2020 study said that the electricity sector is key, and that low cost abatement is possible in the building sector.[226] The same study said that low levels of abatement in agriculture would be cheap, but high levels very expensive.[226] A 2021 study by Shura said that energy transition could increase national income by more than 1%, the largest part being wage increases due to higher skilled jobs,[227]: 8  such as in wind and solar power.[227]: 58  According to the study socioeconomic benefits, such as better health and wages, would be three times the financial cost.[227]: 15 

Turkey's carbon emissions are costly, even without carbon tariffs from other countries.[228] The short-term health co-benefits of climate change mitigation have been estimated at $800 million for Turkey in the year 2028 alone.[46]: 6  As of 2022 investment in green energy is far smaller than the country's potential.[110] Academics have estimated that if Turkey and other countries invested in accordance with the Paris Agreement, Turkey would break even around 2060.[229]: figure 4  A 2023 IMF working paper says that carbon pricing can be designed to support poor people.[230]

Fossil fuel subsidies edit

According to the OECD, fossil fuel subsidies in 2019 totalled over 25 billion lira (US$4.4 billion),[231] nearly 1% of GDP.[227]: 74  Economics professor Ebru Voyvoda has criticised growth policies based on the construction and real estate sectors, and said that moving from fossil fuels to electricity is important.[232] According to a 2020 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development: "Turkey also lacks transparency and continues to provide support for coal production and fossil fuel use, predominantly by foregoing tax revenue and providing state-owned enterprise investment."[233] A MWh of electricity from Turkish lignite emits over a tonne of CO2. Some electricity from these power stations is purchased by the state electricity company at a guaranteed price of US$50–55/MWh until the end of 2027,[94]: 176  despite coal power subsidies being economically irrational.[232] Coal miners' wages are subsidised.[94]: 178 

The Petroleum Market Law provides incentives for investors to explore for oil and produce it.[122]: 198  According to the OECD, in 2019 the fuel tax exemption for naphtha, petroleum coke and petroleum bitumen was a subsidy of 6.7 billion lira (US$1.2 billion), the largest of Turkey's fossil fuel subsidies that year.[234] Petcoke is used in cement production.[235] In other countries fossil fuel subsidies have been successfully scrapped by good communication from government, immediate cash transfers to poor people, energy price smoothing and energy transition support for households and firms.[236][237]

Carbon pricing edit

Boğaziçi University has developed a decision-support tool and integrated assessment model for Turkey's energy and environmental policy.[238] Over 400 (about 9%) of the world's voluntary carbon offset projects are in Turkey:[239] mostly wind, hydro, and landfill methane projects.[240][241] As elsewhere wildfires are a threat to forest carbon offsets.[242] The main standards are the Gold Standard and the Verified Carbon Standard.[243] Earlier academic assessment suggested a revenue-neutral carbon tax might be best for the Turkish economy,[244] but carbon emission trading is more likely to be accepted politically,[245] and technical work for a pilot emissions trading system (ETS) is ongoing.[94]: 48  The 12th Development Plan (2024 to 2028) says that there will be an ETS.[246]: 219  Without a carbon tax or emissions trading, the country is vulnerable to carbon tariffs imposed by the EU,[247] the UK and other export partners.[248] Turkey received by far the most EU climate-change financing in 2018:[249] also the EBRD is investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy,[250] and has offered to support an equitable transition from coal.[251] Although there is no carbon price, other taxes in 2021 covered 39% of emissions[252]: 10  and were equivalent to a carbon price of 22.50 euros.[252]: 13 

The International Monetary Fund says G20 countries should make their high-emitting companies pay a carbon price, which should rise to $75 per tonne of CO2 by 2030.[253] The OECD recommends carbon pricing for all sectors,[254] but road fuel is currently Turkey's only major carbon pricing.[97]: 60  Taxes meet the social cost of road-transport carbon but not, however, the social cost of the country's air pollution.[255][251] However, all other sectors have a large gap between the actual tax (€6 per tonne of CO2 in 2018) and the tax with this negative externality; thus emitters do not bear the actual cost of most GHG, violating the polluter pays principle.[255][251] Annual fossil fuel import cost savings of approximately $17 billion by meeting Paris Agreement goals have been estimated.[131]: 10  Turkish-American economist Daron Acemoğlu said in 2016 that carbon taxes alone do not generally act fast enough against dirty technologies, but that subsidising research into clean technologies is also necessary.[256]

Politics edit

Article 56 of the Turkish Constitution states:

Everyone has the right to live in a healthy and balanced environment. It is the duty of the State and citizens to improve the natural environment, to protect the environmental health and to prevent environmental pollution.[257]

A similar clause in the constitution of the US state of Montana has been used to declare laws that support fossil fuels unconstitutional.[258]

However, until production from large gas fields under the Black Sea begins in the mid-2020s, some in Turkey see burning local lignite as essential to lessen the high gas import bill.[259] Likewise, until local production of solar panels[118] and electric vehicles,[260] and mining lithium for batteries[160] all greatly increase, it is hard to avoid importing a lot of petroleum to make diesel and gasoline.[172]

2000s edit

The Justice and Development Party (AK Party), led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was elected to government in 2003 and has been in power almost continuously since then. Turkey ratified the UNFCCC in 2004, but says it is unfair that it is included amongst the Annex I (developed) countries.[261] When the treaty was signed in 1992 Turkey had much lower emissions per person, and no historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. So, the Foreign Ministry argue that Turkey should have been grouped with non-Annex developing countries, which can receive climate finance from the Green Climate Fund.[262] Turkey ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2009.[263]

2010s edit

In a 2011 dispute over air pollution in Turkey, the main opposition Republican People's Party criticised the government for prioritising fossil fuels.[264] The Climate Change and Air Management Coordination Board was created to coordinate government departments, and includes three business organisations.[265] The Environment Ministry chairs it, though other ministries have considerable influence over climate change policy. The Energy Ministry has an Environment and Climate Department (responsible for the GHG inventory) and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance leads on climate financing.[94]: 40 

Turkey signed the Paris Agreement in 2016 but did not ratify it.[263] In 2015 Turkey declared its intention to achieve "up to a 21% reduction in GHG emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030".[262] But because "Business as Usual" was assumed to be such a large increase, the "21% reduction" is an increase of over 7% per year[266] to around double the 2020 level.[267]

In 2019, Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change at Sabancı University, said that Turkey saw industrialised Western countries as solely responsible.[268]: 24  While discussing their limited actions on climate change, Turkey and other countries cited the forthcoming 2020 United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (not knowing at that time that the US would rejoin early the following year) .[269] Turkey was the 16th largest emitting country in 2019.[270][i]

During the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, Turkey co-led the coalition on the decarbonization of land transport.[271] Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said that Turkey planned to increase the share of renewables to two thirds of total electricity generation by 2023. Dönmez expressed Turkey's strong desire to add nuclear power to its energy mix, with Turkey's first nuclear power plant, expected to be partially operational by 2023.[272] As of 2019, the government aimed to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium and long term. This was explained, in part, because of Turkey's desire to have a diverse mix of energy sources. Rather than increase imports of gas, it wanted to retain domestic coal, albeit with safeguards to reduce the impact on human health and the environment.[58]: 20  İklim Haber (Climate News) and KONDA Research and Consultancy found in 2018 that public opinion on climate change prefers solar and wind power.[273]

2020s edit

Local politics and a just transition edit

See also: Coal in Turkey § Employment
 
Children's models commemorating the Soma mine disaster – "This is how they earn their daily bread"
 
Çatalağzı power station in Zonguldak: Turkey's first coal mining region would need help to give up.

Although the transition to clean energy increases employment in Turkey as a whole,[227] for example in wind and solar power[46]: 6  and energy efficiency of buildings,[274] lost jobs may be concentrated in certain locations and sectors.[131]: 48  For example, closing Şırnak Silopi power station and the coal mines in Şırnak Province could increase already high unemployment there.[275][276] A 2021 study estimated the mining sector would employ 21 thousand fewer people, 14% of total mining employment in 2018.[227]: 57  The study also forecast job losses in textiles, agriculture and food processing, because such labour-intensive sectors would not be able to keep up with efficiency gains in other sectors.[227]: 13  Because carbon pricing would be regressive economists say that poor people should be compensated.[5]: 6  Policy for a just transition from carbon-intensive assets, such as coal, is lacking.[277] Similarly, it is hard for livestock farmers to make a profit,[81] so a sudden removal of subsidies would be an economic shock. But, unlike in neighbouring Greece,[278] there have been no public debates about a just transition.[279] According to former Economy Minister Kemal Derviş, many people will benefit from the green transition, but the losses will be concentrated on specific groups, making them more visible and politically disruptive.[280]At the municipal level, Antalya, Bornova, Bursa, Çankaya, Eskişehir Tepebaşı, Gaziantep, İzmir, Kadıköy, Maltepe, Nilüfer and Seferihisar have sustainable energy and climate plans.[281] A 2021 academic study of local climate change politics said that "local climate action planning takes place independent from the national efforts yet with a commitment to international agreements" and that better co-ordination between local and national government would help planning for climate change adaptation.[282] Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021: according to Politico the country was persuaded by a 3.2 billion dollar loan from France and Germany for its energy transition, and Turkey's chief negotiator said the threat of the EU CBAM was a factor.[283]

National Politics edit

Some suggest that limiting emissions through directives to the state-owned gas and electricity companies would be less effective than a carbon price, but would be more politically acceptable.[284] Turkish citizens are taking individual and political action on climate change to the streets[285] and online,[286] including children demanding action[287] and petitioning the UN.[288][289]: 29  The Industrial Development Bank of Turkey says that it has implemented a sustainable business model, and sustainability-themed investments have a 74% share of the bank's loan portfolio.[290] Turkey's Green Party is calling for an end to coal burning[270] and the phasing out of all fossil-fuel use by 2050.[291] Electricity generated from lignite is often described by politicians and the media as generated from "local resources" and added to the renewables percentage.[292][293] TRT World calls natural gas "blue gold".

After the 2020/21 droughts, the Nationalist Movement Party (the smaller party in the governing coalition) said that climate change is a national security issue.[294] The threat of climate change had already been securitized by Environment Minister Murat Kurum back in 2019.[295] Also following on from the droughts, all parties in parliament, including smaller opposition parties like the Peoples' Democratic Party and the Good Party, agreed to set up a Parliamentary Research Commission to combat climate change and drought.[296] A draft climate law, including emissions trading, was considered in 2021[297] and a revised draft in 2023, but as of 2023 there is no emissions trading.[298] In 2023 there was misinformation about this draft, the draft aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting carbon emission trading.[15]

The national energy plan published in 2022 expected 1.7 GW more coal power to be built,[299] but the opposition CHP had already said that no more fossil fuel power plants should be built and that there should be carbon trading.[300] Businesses say the country needs to decarbonize so that money which would otherwise be lost to the CBAM remains in the country: NGOs and academics have such plans, however a February 2022 government-led "Climate Council" of all those groups and others issued over 200 recommendations,[301][302] but not one for coal phase out.[303] European Climate Action Network Turkey complained that civil society is not properly represented in decision making and in particular that there were no organizations such as theirs in the " Emission Reduction Commission" of the Climate Council.[304]

International politics edit

Murat Kurum has said that global cooperation is key to tackling climate change,[305] and US climate change envoy John Kerry has said that the top 20 emitting countries should reduce emissions immediately.[306] Turkey and some other member countries say the Energy Charter Treaty should be changed to help with decarbonization, but because changes must be unanimous this is unlikely to happen.[307] Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) is in discussions with private-sector companies about investment in Black Sea fossil gas.[50] China funded Emba Hunutlu coal-fired power station started up in 2022.

Ratification[308] of the Kigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which limits emissions of fluorinated gases,[309] has been approved by Parliament[310] and is awaiting presidential approval.[311] As of 2021 it has not been ratified,[312][313] but there are some restrictions on selling these gases,[314] and tightening of the 2018 regulation is being considered.[315]

The government says that, as a developing country having less than 1% responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey's position under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement is not fair at all.[316] However some academics say that low historical greenhouse gas emissions can only be used as a fairness justification under international environmental law by least developed countries and small island developing states.[317] They say that almost all G20 countries, including Turkey, should reduce their emissions below the 2010 level.[317] Nevertheless, the same academics say that countries with higher historical emissions should reduce emissions more.[317]

The Turkish Industry and Business Association lobbied for ratification of the Paris Agreement.[119] The non-ratification was used as an argument against approval of Woodhouse Colliery in the UK, as opponents said much of the coal would be exported to Turkey.[318] In 2021 Turkey again asked to be removed from Annex 1 (developed countries) of the UNFCCC, "in order to make our fight against climate change more effective and to have access to climate finance".[319] Some business people said that Turkey does not need more climate funding in order to meet its current commitments, so should ratify the Paris Agreement and stop building coal power in order to avoid the CBAM.[320][321] Environmental lawyers became more active in the 2020s,[322] but as of 2021, the European Court of Human Rights has not yet decided whether to hear the case of Duarte Agostinho and Others v. several countries including Turkey, brought by children and young adults.[323][324][325] The Paris Agreement was ratified by parliament shortly before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference.[326]

Hakan Mining and Generation Industry & Trade Inc. is constructing Gisagara peat-fired power station in Rwanda.

In 2022 the country promised, in its updated first nationally determined contribution(NDC), to cut greenhouse gas emissions 41% compared to business-as-usual by 2030: however this means Turkey's carbon footprint could increase to about 700 Mt by 2030,[327] with emissions peaking by 2038 or before.[3] Because the government says BAU is 1175 Mt CO2eq, whereas climate activists say that the NDC should have promised an immediate actual reduction.[328] Academics doubt that emissions could be reduced from a 2038 peak to zero by 2053,[327] and say that delaying Turkey's energy transition is more expensive than starting it at once.[329] The 2053 target was reportedly set without consulting the Energy Ministry, and as of 2023 that ministry has not published a decarbonization roadmap.[330]

Research and data access edit

Sabancı University's Shura Energy Transition Center is researching decarbonization pathways.[331] Linear regression, expert judgement and local integrated assessment modelling is used for non-energy projections.[24]: 8 [210]: 33  Emissions from industry have been modelled by the Energy Ministry and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey using TIMES-MACRO.[210]: 33  On 2021 trends the OECD expects emissions to double from 2015 to 2030.[97]: 59  A "Climate Change Platform" is planned to share studies and data.[94]: 46 

Although the OECD praised the government's monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system and said in 2021 that it covers half of total emissions,[97]: 61  unlike the public sharing of data in the EU emission trading system, much detailed emissions data in Turkey is not public.[332] Quantitative estimates of the impact of individual government policies on emissions have not been made or are not publicly available;[58]: 20  neither are projections of long-term policy impacts.[58]: 21  As of 2021, the most recent UNFCCC expert review noted that up-to-date GDP and population-growth forecasts have not been incorporated into models,[24]: 8  and assumptions such as future energy intensity, energy demand and electricity consumption were unknown,[24]: 8  and that no sensitivity analysis of GHG scenarios had been published.[24]: 11  The UNFCCC has asked for more details needed to understand emission projections, such as assumptions about future tax levels, fuel prices, energy demand and intensity, income and household size;[24]: 12  but Turkey has said that many such details are confidential.[58]: 27–28  Although a number of issues raised in greenhouse gas inventory reviews have been resolved, dozens more have been outstanding for over three years.[333]: 39  Space-based measurements of the signs of emissions has allowed public monitoring of the megacity of Istanbul and high emitting power plants since the early-2020s.[334][335]

Notes edit

  1. ^ Since "national communications" are required every four years, the fifth biennial report and eighth national communication may be combined as one document (as was the case previously).[23]
  2. ^ Under IPCC guidelines, the energy sector includes fuel for transport.
  3. ^ The carbon content (t/TJ), oxidation factor and CO2 emission intensity (t/TJ NCV), respectively, of lignite burnt in Turkish power stations in 2021 was as follows:[1]: 50 & 51, table 3.5, 3.6, 3.7  The extremely low-quality lignite is explained in detail in Coal in Turkey. The CO2 emission intensity (or emission factor) shown above is the mass of CO2 emitted for each unit of heat produced by burning a fuel. In contrast, the grid emission intensity is the mass of CO2e produced per unit of electricity supplied to the electrical grid. Because thermal power stations generally convert less than half of the heat energy into electrical energy,[36] their numbers for grid emission intensity are much greater than the emission intensity figures shown above.
  4. ^ The objectives they are referring to may be Sustainable Development Goal 7 and Sustainable Development Goal 13
  5. ^ 62 megatonnes would be emitted annually[42]: 319  if run at the targeted capacity factor, whereas Turkey's current annual emissions are 506 megatonnes. By simple arithmetic, 62 megatonnes is more than 10% of 506+62 megatonnes.
  6. ^ On average, somewhat over a million tonnes of CO2 was emitted for every TWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal-fired power stations in 2010.[41]: 177  This power station aims to generate just over 12.5 TWh (gross) per year.[42]: 346  The calculation in the EIA assumes an emission factor of 94.6 tCO2/TJ[42]: 319  Although the average is about 2,200, the net calorific value of Turkish lignite varies from 1,000 to 6,000 kcal/kg.[1]: 59 
  7. ^ Emissions from international trips are not included in a country's emissions total, but fuel sales for international aviation can be found in Common Reporting Format category 1.A.3.a.1A. Turkey has joined the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.
  8. ^ In 2015, Turkey submitted its emissions target to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), "up to 21 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030" and aiming to emit 929 Mt of CO2 (before subtracting CO2 absorbed by forests) in 2030.[95] The country will probably meet this "unambitious" Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) which it submitted to the UNFCCC.[96]
  9. ^ Overtaken by Greenhouse gas emissions by Australia

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February 16, 2024
greenhouse, emissions, turkey, coal, cars, lorries, vent, more, than, third, turkey, hundred, million, tonnes, annual, greenhouse, emissions, which, mostly, carbon, dioxide, part, cause, climate, change, turkey, nation, coal, fired, power, stations, emit, most. Coal cars and lorries vent more than a third of Turkey s six hundred million tonnes 2 of annual greenhouse gas emissions which are mostly carbon dioxide and part of the cause of climate change in Turkey The nation s coal fired power stations emit the most carbon dioxide and other significant sources are road vehicles running on petrol or diesel After coal 3 and oil the third most polluting fuel is fossil gas which is burnt in Turkey s gas fired power stations homes and workplaces Much methane is belched by livestock cows alone produce half of the greenhouse gas from agriculture in Turkey Coal fired power stations such as the ZETES power stations are the largest source of greenhouse gas 1 459 Economists say that major reasons for Turkey s greenhouse gas emissions are subsidies for coal fired power stations 4 18 and the lack of a price on carbon pollution 5 1 The 2022 National Energy Plan forecast that 1 7 GW more local coal power would be connected to the grid by 2030 6 15 Even without a carbon price renewable electricity in Turkey is cheaper than electricity generated by coal and gas 7 so the Chamber of Engineers says that without subsidies coal fired power stations would be gradually shutdown The Right to Clean Air Platform argues that there should be a legal limit on fine airborne dust much of which comes from car and lorry exhaust Low emission zones in cities would both reduce local air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions Turkey s share of current global greenhouse gas emissions is 1 3 8 Annual per person emissions since the late 2010s have varied around six and a half tonnes 9 which is about the global average 10 Although greenhouse gas totals are reported some details such as the split between cars and lorries are not published Turkey has not yet sent a long term strategy to the UNFCCC 11 The government supports reforestation electric vehicle manufacturing and low carbon electricity generation and is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053 But it has no plan for coal phase out and its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement on limiting climate change is not to reduce emissions but instead an increase of over 30 by 2030 12 Unless Turkey s climate and energy policies are changed the 2053 net zero target will be missed 13 and exporters of high carbon products such as cement and electricity will have to pay carbon tariffs 14 In 2023 there was misinformation about a draft climate law which aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting carbon emission trading 15 Contents 1 Estimates ahead of official inventory 2 Monitoring reporting and verification 3 Greenhouse gas sources 3 1 Fossil fuels 3 1 1 Coal fired power stations 3 1 2 Gas fired power stations 3 1 3 Transport fuel 3 2 Industry 3 2 1 Iron and steel 3 2 2 Cement 3 2 3 Other 3 3 Agriculture and fishing 3 4 Waste 4 Mitigation 4 1 Path to net zero 4 2 Energy 4 3 Buildings 4 4 Transport 4 5 Industry 4 6 Agriculture and fishing 5 Carbon sinks 6 Economics 6 1 Fossil fuel subsidies 6 2 Carbon pricing 7 Politics 7 1 2000s 7 2 2010s 7 3 2020s 7 3 1 Local politics and a just transition 7 3 2 National Politics 7 3 3 International politics 8 Research and data access 9 Notes 10 References 11 External linksEstimates ahead of official inventory editThe EU Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research has estimated 2022 GHG to be 688 million tonnes 8 nbsp As in most countries carbon dioxide mostly from burning fossil fuels is the main long term GHGCarbon dioxide CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are by far the biggest part of greenhouse gas GHG emissions 16 Climate Trace use space based measurements of carbon dioxide to quantify large emission sources like major coal fired power stations in Turkey 17 According to them 730 million tonnes of GHG was emitted in 2022 18 Monitoring reporting and verification edit nbsp Burning coal petrol diesel and natural gas is putting far more carbon dioxide into the air than forests can take out There is some correlation with the economic history of Turkey such as a dip during the 2001 economic crisis Monitoring reporting and verification MRV includes sharing information and lessons learned which strengthens the trust of international climate finance donors 19 The Turkish government s Statistical Institute Turkstat follows the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC reporting guidelines so uses production based GHG accounting to compile the country s greenhouse gas inventory As of 2015 update using consumption based accounting would give a total over 10 higher 20 as manufacturing the products imported to Turkey emits more GHG than manufacturing its exports 21 Turkstat sends the data and accompanying report to the UNFCCC each April about 15 months after the end of the reported year 22 a Emissions from fuels sold in the country for international aviation and shipping are accounted separately in reports to the UNFCCC and are not included in a country s total 1 46 In 2021 jet kerosene supplied at Turkish airports and burnt by international flights emitted 8 39 Mt CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent 1 60 and diesel oil and residual fuel oil from Turkish ports powering international shipping 1 89 Mt CO2e 1 62 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC defines three methodological tiers to measure emissions Tier 1 uses global defaults and simplified assumptions so is the easiest but least accurate Tier 2 uses country specific values and more detailed data Tier 3 uses the most detailed data and modelling so is the most difficult to compile but the most accurate To make best use of human resources each nation may decide to only use higher tiers to estimate its particular key categories Turkstat selects these categories depending on either the absolute level of emissions from that category or whether it is trending or uncertain 1 439 For example N2O from wastewater treatment and discharge was a key category for 2021 solely because of its quickly rising emissions 1 440 Nevertheless most of the key categories selected in 2021 are the largest emitting sectors cement production for example Turkey uses Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology for some key categories for example a power plant might analyse the lignite it burns which differs from mine to mine 1 72 Although road transport is a key category it is not split between cars and lorries as is done in some countries In 2021 the UNFCCC asked Turkey why it reported negligible indirect GHGs carbon monoxide nitrogen oxides non methane volatile organic compounds and sulfur oxides in 2018 24 12 Greenhouse gas sources edit nbsp Coal fired power stations emit the most followed by cars and lorries Turkey emitted 524 Mt of GHG in 2020 16 which is higher than would be sustainable under a global carbon budget 25 26 Per person gross emissions are above the world average 27 at 6 3 t in 2020 16 Turkey s cumulative CO2 emissions are estimated at around 11 Gt which is less than 1 of the world s cumulative total Turkey s population is about 1 of world population 21 Turkey s emissions can be looked at from different perspectives to the standard IPCC classification for example a 2021 study by Izmir University of Economics estimated that food from farm to fork accounts for about a third of national emissions 28 This is similar to the global emissions share of food 29 Fossil fuels edit See also Energy in Turkey nbsp Emissions from gas increased but remain far below coal Emissions from oil products such as petrol and diesel increased more slowly than gas and coal Burning coal in Turkey was the largest contributor to fossil fuel emissions in 2021 followed by oil and natural gas 1 57 That year Turkey s energy sector emitted over 70 of the country s GHG 16 mostly through electricity generation followed by transport b 1 43 In contrast agriculture contributed 13 of emissions and industrial processes and product use IPPU also 13 9 Carbon capture and storage is not economically viable since the country has no carbon pricing 30 The GHG emission intensity of energy consumption is higher than in the EU 31 From 2023 Turkey expects to greatly increase gas production 32 In 2021 IEA head Fatih Birol called for fossil fuel producing countries to include limits on methane leaks in their climate pledges 33 for example the United States is doing this 34 Production of public heat and electricity emitted 148 megatonnes of CO2e in 2021 35 table 1s1 cell B10 mainly through coal burning c In 2020 emission intensity was about 440 gCO2 kWh 37 around the average for G20 countries 38 Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal 39 10 nbsp Pollution over Ankara Coal is still burnt to heat older buildings in cities Subsidised coal burnt by poor families gives off black carbon a contributor to climate change and other local air pollution Residential fuel such as natural gas and coal contributed 50 Mt CO2e in 2021 1 135 Burning fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas to heat commercial and institutional buildings emitted 14 Mt CO2e in 2021 1 133 According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Our country aims to use our energy resources efficiently effectively and in a way that has a minimum impact on the environment within the scope of the sustainable development objectives 40 d Coal fired power stations edit nbsp Some old power stations like Yatagan pollute but are subsidized Turkey s coal fired power stations are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey at 103 Mt about 20 of national emissions see pie chart in 2021 35 table 1 A a s1 cell G26 solid fuels Over a kilogram of CO2 is emitted for every KWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal fired power stations 41 177 If operated at the targeted capacity factor planned units at Afsin Elbistan would add over 60 Mt CO2 per year 42 319 more than one tenth of the country s entire emissions 43 e f Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local lignite or imported bituminous hard coal Coal analysis of Turkish lignite shows that it is high in ash and moisture low in energy value and high in emission intensity 44 So Turkish lignite emits more CO2 than other countries lignites 44 Although imported hard coal has a lower emission intensity when burnt because it is transported much further its life cycle greenhouse gas emissions are similar to lignite 41 177 When carbon dioxide CO2 from coal used by industry and buildings and methane emissions from coal mining are added to those from coal fired electricity generation over 30 of Turkey s annual emissions come from coal In 2021 burning coal emitted 153 Mt CO2 in total 1 57 Methane leaks from coal mines in 2021 were equivalent to 6 Mt CO2 1 141 Eren Holding via Eren Enerji s coal fired ZETES power stations emits over 2 of Turkey s GHG and ICDAS emits over 1 from its Bekirli coal fired power stations 45 Emissions of black carbon are not published for individual power stations 46 2 as Turkey has not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol on air pollution 47 Gas fired power stations edit Gas fired power stations emitted 46 Mt CO2e in 2021 35 table 1 A a s1 cell G27 It is difficult for them to compete with coal partly due to the lack of a carbon price 48 Electricity generation from gas tends to increase when hydropower is limited by droughts 49 Import costs for natural gas are expected to fall during the mid 2020s with the start of production from the Sakarya Gas Field in the Black Sea 50 Transport fuel edit nbsp A traffic jam in Istanbul one of the few major European cities without a low emission zone 51 Transport emitted 91 Mt of CO2e in 2021 1 104 a bit over one tonne per person Road transport in the country dominated emissions with 86 Mt including agricultural vehicles 1 105 Over three quarters of Turkey s road transport emissions come from diesel fuel 1 108 Average emissions of new cars in 2016 were about 120 g CO2 km 52 17 Although the EU has a 2021 target of 95 g of CO2 km Turkey has no target 52 17 In 2018 Turkey had no measures in place to reduce the well to wheel impact of petrol and diesel vehicles 53 except for a requirement for 3 ethanol in fuel compared to 10 in the EU 54 However more use of biofuels may not be sustainable 54 Fuel quality and emissions standards for new cars are less strict than those in the EU 55 102 and in 2019 about 45 of cars were over 10 years old and energy inefficient 52 16 The market share of electric vehicles was below world average in 2020 56 113 Domestic flights g emitted 3 Mt of CO2e in 2021 1 112 and their VAT rate was cut to 1 57 Industry edit In 2021 Turkey s industrial sector emitted 75 Mt 13 of GHG 9 But as of 2019 update estimates of the effects of government policy on industrial emissions are lacking 58 28 IEA head Fatih Birol has said that the country has a lot of potential for renewable energy 59 Some sugar factories such as some owned by Turkseker 60 and Konya Seker burn coal for the heat needed to make sugar and sometimes to generate electricity 61 Some industrial companies reach the Global Reporting Initiative GRI 305 emissions standard 62 Iron and steel edit The European steel industry has complained that steel imports from Turkey are unfair competition because they are not subject to a carbon tax 63 and alleges that the natural gas used to produce some steel is subsidised 64 Turkish steel primarily from minimills averages about one tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel produced 65 Although this average is less polluting than China 65 three steelworks Erdemir Isdemir and Kardemir use blast furnaces and thus emit more than those using electric arc furnaces 66 The future Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM in the European Green Deal may include a carbon tariff on Turkish steel produced in blast furnaces 67 but the CBAM could help arc furnaces compete against products such as Chinese steel 68 Cement edit Turkey is the sixth largest cement producer in the world and the largest in Europe 69 In 2020 Turkey exported 30 million tonnes worth almost US 1 billion 69 and was the largest source of EU cement imports 70 Cement clinker production in 2021 emitted 44 Mt CO2 8 of the country s total GHG 1 155 Climate Trace has estimated the contributions of individual factories sometimes from kiln heat visible from satellites 71 and says that Gonen and Silifke cement plants emitted more than 1 5 Mt each in 2022 72 Turkey s construction sector contracted at the end of 2018 73 and so used less cement 74 Cement producers in the EU have to buy EU carbon credits and say the CBAM is needed to protect them from unfair competition from Turkish companies as they pay no carbon price 75 The CBAM could be up to 50 on the cement price 76 Other edit The offial estimate for 2021 soda ash production was under 1 Mt but the emission factor used in the calculation is confidential 1 190 Climate Trace estimated 2022 at over 3 Mt 18 but have very low confidence in the accuracy of their estimate 77 Kazan Soda Elektrik and Eti Soda have published figures for 2019 and 2021 respectively Agriculture and fishing edit nbsp Almost half of agricultural emissions are from cows Agriculture accounted for 72 Mt which was 13 of Turkey s total 2021 GHG including 61 of its methane emissions and 78 of its nitrous oxide emissions 9 These are due primarily to enteric fermentation agricultural soils and fertilizer management 78 Cattle emit almost half of the GHG from agriculture 1 240 257 Total 72 Mt 27 Mt enteric fermentation 61 of 9 Mt manure management 32 Mt About three quarters of red meat production in Turkey is beef 79 Turks eat an average of 15 kilograms 33 lb of beef per person each year which is more than the world average 80 and the country produced 1 million tonnes of beef in 2021 81 There are about 18 million cattle including 8 million dairy cattle and a few buffalo 45 million sheep and 11 million goats in the country livestock are subsidized 81 and some farmers are given diesel payments 82 US 411 million worth of cattle were imported in 2020 83 VAT on meat and dairy is 1 like other staple foods Being ruminants sheep goats and cattle belch methane Fertilizers can emit the GHG nitrous oxide but estimates of the effects of government policy on the agricultural and waste sectors emissions are lacking 58 28 Production of plastic such as for in agriculture may release significant GHG in future 84 National GHG inventories do not yet include bottom trawling as the IPCC has yet to issue accounting guidelines 85 Waste edit The government says that waste sector contributed 15 Mt 3 of Turkey s 2021 GHG 9 However Climate Trace estimates that it was over 145 Mt almost 20 in 2022 86 It is unclear why there is such an enormous difference Landfilling is the most common waste disposal method 87 Climate Trace estimate Odayeri even though it has a biogas facility 88 on the European side of Istanbul to be the biggest waste single emitter at over 6 Mt in 2022 18 Organic waste sent to landfills emits methane but the country is working to improve sustainable waste and resource management 89 One third of organic waste is composted 90 but others argue for incineration 87 Mitigation edit nbsp Turkey s GHG emissions are not in line with the Paris Agreement objective to limit temperature rise to well below 2 C According to Climate Action Tracker if all government targets were like Turkey s global warming would exceed 4 C by the end of the 21st century 91 A long term climate change mitigation strategy is lacking as of 2023 92 116 The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP says a faster decarbonisation is needed and emissions per person per year would need to be cut by more than half to about 2 2 5 t CO2e by 2030 93 XXV The government intended to complete its review of long term 2030 to 2050 policy 94 42 h and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023 97 but it did not 98 Turkey argues that as a developing country it should be exempt from net emission reduction targets but other countries do not agree 97 59 Unless Turkey s energy policy is changed European Union EU emissions per person are forecast to fall below Turkey s during the 2020s 93 22 Since the EU is Turkey s main trading partner a comparison with targets in the European Green Deal is important to help Turkish businesses avoid future EU carbon tariffs on exports such as steel 99 and cement 100 Public and private sector working groups discussed the European Green Deal 101 and the Trade Ministry published an action plan in response to its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 102 Path to net zero edit See also Climate change litigation Turkey nbsp Greenhouse gas target nbsp Greenhouse gas per person before and after absorption by forests The greater net dip in 2019 is because forest cover was resurveyed and found to be more than previously thought Turkey is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053 103 But Climate Action Tracker said in 2021 that critical details on scope target architecture and transparency are missing from the net zero goal 104 The World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits but has suggested government do far more detailed planning 105 Turkey s Energy Efficiency Action Act which came into force in 2018 commits nearly US 11 billion to efficiency and could significantly limit emissions 106 And the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD is investing in climate governance 107 and energy efficiency for example in smaller companies 108 In 2021 the government pledged to prepare a new plan for reducing emissions 109 but as of 2022 update there is no plan to reduce coal use 110 Later in 2021 Istanbul Policy Center a thinktank which is part of Sabanci University released a summary of their own plan 111 The plan says that net zero by 2050 is possible and that the key to decarbonization is increasing the share of solar and wind in electricity generation It says that CO2 emissions could be reduced by 32 from 2018 to 2030 And that the share of renewable resources other than hydroelectricity in installed power could be increased from 17 per cent in 2018 to 50 per cent in 2030 and 77 per cent in 2050 According to the plan Turkey could increase the total wind solar installed power to 35 GW by 2030 by constructing an average of 3 GW of solar and 2 5 GW of wind power plants every year 112 The plan says that gross CO2 emissions could be reduced to 132 million tons by 2050 113 Energy edit See also Energy in Turkey Energy transition Emissions could be reduced considerably by switching from coal to existing gas fired power stations 114 as there is enough generating capacity to allow the decommissioning of all coal fired power stations and still meet peak energy demand as long as hydropower as well as gas is used to meet peaks in demand 115 By the mid 2020s the gas price is forecast to have fallen considerably 116 as Turkey s production from the Black Sea will be more than enough to meet national demand 50 However according to a 2021 study the electricity sector is financially unable to transform itself in response to the CBAM and to avoid market failure the government must step in by designing a general decarbonization program for electricity production in Turkey 117 A solar panel factory began production in 2020 118 and solar and wind power are the cheapest generating technologies 116 but are underdeveloped 119 Fossil fuel subsidies risk carbon lock in but if they were scrapped wind and solar power could expand faster 120 7 Relying simply on battery storage would be insufficient to decarbonise electricity as periods of high and low demand last for two to three weeks 121 Ramping down nuclear power in Turkey will be technically possible at times when solar or wind increases or electricity demand drops but would be expensive because of high fixed costs and lost sales revenue 122 72 However after upgrading 123 repowering 124 and adding a small amount of pumped storage hydroelectricity 125 there are enough hydropower dams in Turkey to provide dispatchable generation to balance variable renewable energy even allowing for more frequent droughts in Turkey in the future because of climate change 120 7 Solar farms are being co located with hydropower to maintain generation in case of drought 126 Geothermal electric capacity totalled 1 6 GW in 2020 and more is planned but the lifetime CO2 emissions of some Turkish geothermal power is not yet clear 127 128 National and international investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency are being made for example the EBRD is supporting the installation of smart meters 129 Along with cement the electricity sector is forecast to be the hardest hit by the CBAM 117 According to thinktank Ember building new wind and solar power is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal 130 But they say that there are obstacles to building utility scale solar plants such as lack of new capacity for solar power at transformers a 50 MW cap for any single solar power plant s installed capacity and large consumers being unable to sign long term power purchase agreements for new solar installations 130 Buildings edit Buildings in Turkey are the largest energy consumers and there are substantial opportunities for energy savings in both new build and renovations 131 A typical residential building emits almost 50 kgCO2eq m2 year mostly due to the energy used by residents 132 The Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development OECD has said that more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and that tax incentives offered for this would create jobs 97 62 Turkey was a co leader of the group discussing zero carbon buildings at the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit and the city of Eskisehir has pledged to convert all existing buildings to zero emissions by 2050 133 134 Such energy efficiency improvements can be made in the same programme as increasing resilience to earthquakes in Turkey 135 However in 2020 gas was subsidized 4 18 Increasing the proportion of passive houses has been suggested 136 as has adopting some EU building standards 137 In rural areas without a piped gas supply heat pumps could be an alternative to wood coal and bottled gas but buying a heat pump is rare as it is very expensive for householders as there is no subsidy 138 29 However owners of larger properties such as shopping centres schools and government buildings have shown more interest 139 Direct geothermal heating not to be confused with heat pumps installed capacity totaled 3 5 GW thermal GWt in 2020 with the potential for 60 GWt but it is unclear how much is low carbon 127 According to a 2020 report commissioned by the environment ministry and the EBRD further research on Turkish geothermal is needed specifically how to limit carbon dioxide venting to the atmosphere 140 283 284 There is no data on the carbon intensity of cement 141 13 Emissions from cement production could be lessened by reducing its clinker content 142 for example by making Limestone Calcined Clay Cement which is only half clinker The second largest reduction could be made by switching half the fuel from hard coal and petroleum coke petcoke to a mixture of rubber from waste tires refuse derived fuel and biomass 143 Although the country has enough of these materials most cement kilns there are 54 1 156 use coal petcoke or lignite as their primary energy source 1 154 More cross laminated timber could be used for building instead of concrete 144 Further decarbonisation of cement production would depend heavily on carbon capture and storage CCS 145 146 109 Despite Turkey s earthquake risk CCS may be technically feasible in a salt dome near Lake Tuz 147 or in Diyarbakir Province 148 Thinktank Ember suggest that rooftop solar should be mandatory on new buildings and say that installation on apartment block roofs is hindered by bureaucracy 149 Transport edit In the 2000s transport emission intensity improved but this gain was partially lost in the 2010s due to the growing preference for sport utility vehicles 150 Although Turkey has several manufacturers of electric buses 151 and many are exported 152 fewer than 100 were in use in the country in 2021 153 Ebikes are manufactured 154 but cities could be improved to make cycling in Turkey safer 155 Although Turkey s ferries unlike some other countries are still fossil fuelled 156 the world s first all electric tugboat began working in Istanbul s harbour in 2020 157 electric lorries are manufactured 158 and an electric excavator is planned for 2022 159 Eti Mine Works produces small quantities of lithium carbonate locally and plans to increase production for use in batteries A battery factory is planned 160 by Aspilsan which is part of Turkey s defence industry 161 and Ford Otosan started making electric vans in 2022 162 Over a quarter of a million charging stations are planned by 2030 163 Building codes are being changed to mandate electric car charging points in new shopping centres and car parks 164 Partially due to high import tariffs very few electric cars are sold 165 Chinese EVs are subject to a 50 import tariff 166 In early 2023 less than 3 of cars sold were electric 167 Turkey s automotive industry makes electric cars locally 168 which have incentives 169 However the special consumption tax Turkish is 10 or more As well as cutting GHG creation of a domestic electric vehicle market by TOGG is hoped to reduce vehicle running costs 170 create jobs 52 76 and reduce oil imports 171 Introducing smart charging is important to avoid overloading Turkish electricity distribution networks 52 74 Petrol and diesel taxes are lower than in the neighbouring EU 172 17 but higher than in oil producing countries to the south 173 The legality of ridesharing companies is unclear 174 175 and taxis could be better integrated with public transport 176 However Istanbul taxi regulations are politically deadlocked 177 The central government has drafted enabling regulations for low emission zones 178 and at least one municipality is considering creating one 179 According to Shura three quarters of emissions in the transport sector come from road freight transport 180 Sales of fossil fuelled road vehicles will be banned from 2040 181 182 Using International Civil Aviation Organization methodology Turkish Airlines offers carbon offsets certified to Verified Carbon Standard and Gold Standard 183 Turkey is participating in the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation 184 Industry edit As of 2022 update hydrofluorocarbon smuggling from Turkey to the EU remains a problem 185 Electric motors in small and medium sized enterprises are becoming more efficient 186 Low carbon hydrogen could help with hard to decarbonise industries such as cement and petrochemicals but further research is needed 121 As of 2021 update there are almost no supporters of the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures to provide information to investors about the risks of climate change to companies 187 The Turkish Industry and Business Association has asked the EU for funding to help strengthen alignment with the CBAM 188 Agriculture and fishing edit Climate smart agriculture is being studied 189 and financed 190 191 and agrivoltaics has been suggested as suitable for maize and some other shade loving vegetables 192 President Erdogan has called for more marine protected areas in international waters 193 There are no international waters adjacent to Turkey s territorial waters of which about 4 is marine protected area 194 Carbon sinks editSee also Reforestation Turkey nbsp These existing trees are being added to by reforestation Turkey has 23 million hectares of forest covering quarter of the country though over 40 is degraded woodland 195 Turkey s forests are its main carbon sink and offset 34 Mt of the country s emissions in 2021 1 287 The government said in 2015 that by 2050 forests are envisioned to stretch across over four fifths of the country s territory 196 However warmer and drier air in the south and west may make it difficult to sustain the present forest cover 197 But despite regional variations forests are expected to remain an overall carbon sink 198 Almost all Turkey s forest land belongs to the state and cannot be privatised Private afforestation permits have been issued however to encourage tree planting in areas where tree density is low 199 Civil society organizations such as the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion and the Foresters Association of Turkey are also encouraging reforestation 200 In 2019 an annual National Forestation Day every 11 November was established by President Erdogan 201 Junipers have been suggested for reforestation because of their hardiness but are said to need help to regrow quickly 202 But according to Ege University associate professor Serdar Gokhan Senol the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry sometimes replants when it should wait for regrowth instead 203 Three quarters of Turkey s land is deficient in soil organic matter 204 This contains soil organic carbon which is estimated to total 3 5 billion tonnes at 30 centimetres 12 in soil depth with 36 t ha in agricultural fields 205 Soil organic carbon has been mapped 206 205 this is important because carbon emissions from soil are directly related to climate change but vary according to soil interaction 207 107 with low levels of soil organic carbon increasing the risk of soil erosion 208 Turkey is a major producer of marble it has been suggested that waste from the industry could capture carbon by calcium looping 209 Economics editSee also Air pollution in Turkey Economics nbsp Recent economic growth emits less carbon dioxideDuring the late 20th and early 21st centuries growth of the Turkish economy and to a lesser extent population caused increased emissions from electricity generation 210 10 11 industry and construction 211 59 62 as described by the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis 212 And from the 1990s to the 2010s they were correlated with electricity generation 213 But during the 2010s economic growth and the increase in emissions decoupled somewhat 97 59 Since the 1970s the energy intensity of economic growth has fluctuated around 1kWh per 2011 USD 214 whereas the carbon intensity of energy has fallen from 300g per kWh to 200g per kWh 215 In 2018 the government forecast that GHG emissions were expected to increase in parallel with GDP growth over the next decade 216 30 Once economic growth resumes after the debt crisis that began in 2018 and the country s COVID 19 recession energy demand is also expected to grow Nevertheless Carbon Tracker says that it will be possible to decouple economic growth and emissions by expanding the country s renewable energy capacity and investing in energy efficiency with a sustainable energy policy 211 63 On average the consumption based CO2 emissions of one of the richest 10 of people in Turkey is more than double that of someone in the rest of the population 217 as richer people tend to fly more and buy gasoline fuelled SUVs 218 Nevertheless 2019 studies disagree on whether Turkey s high income inequality causes higher CO2 emissions 219 220 While the government has pledged to buy 30 000 locally made electric cars 221 there were few explicit green measures in the 2020 package designed to aid recovery from the country s COVID 19 recession On the contrary the VAT rate for domestic aviation was cut and oil and gas were discounted 222 Almost all the stimulus was detrimental to the environment according to a 2021 report only Russia s was less green 223 Turkey has received climate finance from the Global Environment Facility the Clean Technology Fund and various bilateral funding but is not eligible for the Green Climate Fund because of its status as a developed country under the UNFCCC 94 43 Worldwide marginal abatement cost studies show that improving the energy efficiency of buildings and replacing fossil fuelled power plants with renewables are usually the most cost effective ways of reducing carbon emissions 224 A 2017 study concluded that a US 50 tonne carbon price similar to the 2021 EU price would reduce emissions by about 20 mainly by discouraging coal 225 A more detailed 2020 study said that the electricity sector is key and that low cost abatement is possible in the building sector 226 The same study said that low levels of abatement in agriculture would be cheap but high levels very expensive 226 A 2021 study by Shura said that energy transition could increase national income by more than 1 the largest part being wage increases due to higher skilled jobs 227 8 such as in wind and solar power 227 58 According to the study socioeconomic benefits such as better health and wages would be three times the financial cost 227 15 Turkey s carbon emissions are costly even without carbon tariffs from other countries 228 The short term health co benefits of climate change mitigation have been estimated at 800 million for Turkey in the year 2028 alone 46 6 As of 2022 update investment in green energy is far smaller than the country s potential 110 Academics have estimated that if Turkey and other countries invested in accordance with the Paris Agreement Turkey would break even around 2060 229 figure 4 A 2023 IMF working paper says that carbon pricing can be designed to support poor people 230 Fossil fuel subsidies edit According to the OECD fossil fuel subsidies in 2019 totalled over 25 billion lira US 4 4 billion 231 nearly 1 of GDP 227 74 Economics professor Ebru Voyvoda has criticised growth policies based on the construction and real estate sectors and said that moving from fossil fuels to electricity is important 232 According to a 2020 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development Turkey also lacks transparency and continues to provide support for coal production and fossil fuel use predominantly by foregoing tax revenue and providing state owned enterprise investment 233 A MWh of electricity from Turkish lignite emits over a tonne of CO2 Some electricity from these power stations is purchased by the state electricity company at a guaranteed price of US 50 55 MWh until the end of 2027 94 176 despite coal power subsidies being economically irrational 232 Coal miners wages are subsidised 94 178 The Petroleum Market Law provides incentives for investors to explore for oil and produce it 122 198 According to the OECD in 2019 the fuel tax exemption for naphtha petroleum coke and petroleum bitumen was a subsidy of 6 7 billion lira US 1 2 billion the largest of Turkey s fossil fuel subsidies that year 234 Petcoke is used in cement production 235 In other countries fossil fuel subsidies have been successfully scrapped by good communication from government immediate cash transfers to poor people energy price smoothing and energy transition support for households and firms 236 237 Carbon pricing edit Bogazici University has developed a decision support tool and integrated assessment model for Turkey s energy and environmental policy 238 Over 400 about 9 of the world s voluntary carbon offset projects are in Turkey 239 mostly wind hydro and landfill methane projects 240 241 As elsewhere wildfires are a threat to forest carbon offsets 242 The main standards are the Gold Standard and the Verified Carbon Standard 243 Earlier academic assessment suggested a revenue neutral carbon tax might be best for the Turkish economy 244 but carbon emission trading is more likely to be accepted politically 245 and technical work for a pilot emissions trading system ETS is ongoing 94 48 The 12th Development Plan 2024 to 2028 says that there will be an ETS 246 219 Without a carbon tax or emissions trading the country is vulnerable to carbon tariffs imposed by the EU 247 the UK and other export partners 248 Turkey received by far the most EU climate change financing in 2018 249 also the EBRD is investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy 250 and has offered to support an equitable transition from coal 251 Although there is no carbon price other taxes in 2021 covered 39 of emissions 252 10 and were equivalent to a carbon price of 22 50 euros 252 13 The International Monetary Fund says G20 countries should make their high emitting companies pay a carbon price which should rise to 75 per tonne of CO2 by 2030 253 The OECD recommends carbon pricing for all sectors 254 but road fuel is currently Turkey s only major carbon pricing 97 60 Taxes meet the social cost of road transport carbon but not however the social cost of the country s air pollution 255 251 However all other sectors have a large gap between the actual tax 6 per tonne of CO2 in 2018 and the tax with this negative externality thus emitters do not bear the actual cost of most GHG violating the polluter pays principle 255 251 Annual fossil fuel import cost savings of approximately 17 billion by meeting Paris Agreement goals have been estimated 131 10 Turkish American economist Daron Acemoglu said in 2016 that carbon taxes alone do not generally act fast enough against dirty technologies but that subsidising research into clean technologies is also necessary 256 Politics editArticle 56 of the Turkish Constitution states Everyone has the right to live in a healthy and balanced environment It is the duty of the State and citizens to improve the natural environment to protect the environmental health and to prevent environmental pollution 257 A similar clause in the constitution of the US state of Montana has been used to declare laws that support fossil fuels unconstitutional 258 However until production from large gas fields under the Black Sea begins in the mid 2020s some in Turkey see burning local lignite as essential to lessen the high gas import bill 259 Likewise until local production of solar panels 118 and electric vehicles 260 and mining lithium for batteries 160 all greatly increase it is hard to avoid importing a lot of petroleum to make diesel and gasoline 172 2000s edit The Justice and Development Party AK Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected to government in 2003 and has been in power almost continuously since then Turkey ratified the UNFCCC in 2004 but says it is unfair that it is included amongst the Annex I developed countries 261 When the treaty was signed in 1992 Turkey had much lower emissions per person and no historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions So the Foreign Ministry argue that Turkey should have been grouped with non Annex developing countries which can receive climate finance from the Green Climate Fund 262 Turkey ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2009 263 2010s edit In a 2011 dispute over air pollution in Turkey the main opposition Republican People s Party criticised the government for prioritising fossil fuels 264 The Climate Change and Air Management Coordination Board was created to coordinate government departments and includes three business organisations 265 The Environment Ministry chairs it though other ministries have considerable influence over climate change policy The Energy Ministry has an Environment and Climate Department responsible for the GHG inventory and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance leads on climate financing 94 40 Turkey signed the Paris Agreement in 2016 but did not ratify it 263 In 2015 Turkey declared its intention to achieve up to a 21 reduction in GHG emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030 262 But because Business as Usual was assumed to be such a large increase the 21 reduction is an increase of over 7 per year 266 to around double the 2020 level 267 In 2019 Umit Sahin who teaches climate change at Sabanci University said that Turkey saw industrialised Western countries as solely responsible 268 24 While discussing their limited actions on climate change Turkey and other countries cited the forthcoming 2020 United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement not knowing at that time that the US would rejoin early the following year 269 Turkey was the 16th largest emitting country in 2019 270 i During the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 Turkey co led the coalition on the decarbonization of land transport 271 Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said that Turkey planned to increase the share of renewables to two thirds of total electricity generation by 2023 Donmez expressed Turkey s strong desire to add nuclear power to its energy mix with Turkey s first nuclear power plant expected to be partially operational by 2023 272 As of 2019 update the government aimed to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium and long term This was explained in part because of Turkey s desire to have a diverse mix of energy sources Rather than increase imports of gas it wanted to retain domestic coal albeit with safeguards to reduce the impact on human health and the environment 58 20 Iklim Haber Climate News and KONDA Research and Consultancy found in 2018 that public opinion on climate change prefers solar and wind power 273 2020s edit Local politics and a just transition edit See also Coal in Turkey Employment nbsp Children s models commemorating the Soma mine disaster This is how they earn their daily bread nbsp Catalagzi power station in Zonguldak Turkey s first coal mining region would need help to give up Although the transition to clean energy increases employment in Turkey as a whole 227 for example in wind and solar power 46 6 and energy efficiency of buildings 274 lost jobs may be concentrated in certain locations and sectors 131 48 For example closing Sirnak Silopi power station and the coal mines in Sirnak Province could increase already high unemployment there 275 276 A 2021 study estimated the mining sector would employ 21 thousand fewer people 14 of total mining employment in 2018 227 57 The study also forecast job losses in textiles agriculture and food processing because such labour intensive sectors would not be able to keep up with efficiency gains in other sectors 227 13 Because carbon pricing would be regressive economists say that poor people should be compensated 5 6 Policy for a just transition from carbon intensive assets such as coal is lacking 277 Similarly it is hard for livestock farmers to make a profit 81 so a sudden removal of subsidies would be an economic shock But unlike in neighbouring Greece 278 there have been no public debates about a just transition 279 According to former Economy Minister Kemal Dervis many people will benefit from the green transition but the losses will be concentrated on specific groups making them more visible and politically disruptive 280 At the municipal level Antalya Bornova Bursa Cankaya Eskisehir Tepebasi Gaziantep Izmir Kadikoy Maltepe Nilufer and Seferihisar have sustainable energy and climate plans 281 A 2021 academic study of local climate change politics said that local climate action planning takes place independent from the national efforts yet with a commitment to international agreements and that better co ordination between local and national government would help planning for climate change adaptation 282 Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021 according to Politico the country was persuaded by a 3 2 billion dollar loan from France and Germany for its energy transition and Turkey s chief negotiator said the threat of the EU CBAM was a factor 283 National Politics edit Some suggest that limiting emissions through directives to the state owned gas and electricity companies would be less effective than a carbon price but would be more politically acceptable 284 Turkish citizens are taking individual and political action on climate change to the streets 285 and online 286 including children demanding action 287 and petitioning the UN 288 289 29 The Industrial Development Bank of Turkey says that it has implemented a sustainable business model and sustainability themed investments have a 74 share of the bank s loan portfolio 290 Turkey s Green Party is calling for an end to coal burning 270 and the phasing out of all fossil fuel use by 2050 291 Electricity generated from lignite is often described by politicians and the media as generated from local resources and added to the renewables percentage 292 293 TRT World calls natural gas blue gold After the 2020 21 droughts the Nationalist Movement Party the smaller party in the governing coalition said that climate change is a national security issue 294 The threat of climate change had already been securitized by Environment Minister Murat Kurum back in 2019 295 Also following on from the droughts all parties in parliament including smaller opposition parties like the Peoples Democratic Party and the Good Party agreed to set up a Parliamentary Research Commission to combat climate change and drought 296 A draft climate law including emissions trading was considered in 2021 297 and a revised draft in 2023 but as of 2023 update there is no emissions trading 298 In 2023 there was misinformation about this draft the draft aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting carbon emission trading 15 The national energy plan published in 2022 expected 1 7 GW more coal power to be built 299 but the opposition CHP had already said that no more fossil fuel power plants should be built and that there should be carbon trading 300 Businesses say the country needs to decarbonize so that money which would otherwise be lost to the CBAM remains in the country NGOs and academics have such plans however a February 2022 government led Climate Council of all those groups and others issued over 200 recommendations 301 302 but not one for coal phase out 303 European Climate Action Network Turkey complained that civil society is not properly represented in decision making and in particular that there were no organizations such as theirs in the Emission Reduction Commission of the Climate Council 304 International politics edit Murat Kurum has said that global cooperation is key to tackling climate change 305 and US climate change envoy John Kerry has said that the top 20 emitting countries should reduce emissions immediately 306 Turkey and some other member countries say the Energy Charter Treaty should be changed to help with decarbonization but because changes must be unanimous this is unlikely to happen 307 Turkish Petroleum Corporation TPAO is in discussions with private sector companies about investment in Black Sea fossil gas 50 China funded Emba Hunutlu coal fired power station started up in 2022 Ratification 308 of the Kigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol which limits emissions of fluorinated gases 309 has been approved by Parliament 310 and is awaiting presidential approval 311 As of 2021 update it has not been ratified 312 313 but there are some restrictions on selling these gases 314 and tightening of the 2018 regulation is being considered 315 The government says that as a developing country having less than 1 responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions Turkey s position under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement is not fair at all 316 However some academics say that low historical greenhouse gas emissions can only be used as a fairness justification under international environmental law by least developed countries and small island developing states 317 They say that almost all G20 countries including Turkey should reduce their emissions below the 2010 level 317 Nevertheless the same academics say that countries with higher historical emissions should reduce emissions more 317 The Turkish Industry and Business Association lobbied for ratification of the Paris Agreement 119 The non ratification was used as an argument against approval of Woodhouse Colliery in the UK as opponents said much of the coal would be exported to Turkey 318 In 2021 Turkey again asked to be removed from Annex 1 developed countries of the UNFCCC in order to make our fight against climate change more effective and to have access to climate finance 319 Some business people said that Turkey does not need more climate funding in order to meet its current commitments so should ratify the Paris Agreement and stop building coal power in order to avoid the CBAM 320 321 Environmental lawyers became more active in the 2020s 322 but as of 2021 update the European Court of Human Rights has not yet decided whether to hear the case of Duarte Agostinho and Others v several countries including Turkey brought by children and young adults 323 324 325 The Paris Agreement was ratified by parliament shortly before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference 326 Hakan Mining and Generation Industry amp Trade Inc is constructing Gisagara peat fired power station in Rwanda In 2022 the country promised in its updated first nationally determined contribution NDC to cut greenhouse gas emissions 41 compared to business as usual by 2030 however this means Turkey s carbon footprint could increase to about 700 Mt by 2030 327 with emissions peaking by 2038 or before 3 Because the government says BAU is 1175 Mt CO2eq whereas climate activists say that the NDC should have promised an immediate actual reduction 328 Academics doubt that emissions could be reduced from a 2038 peak to zero by 2053 327 and say that delaying Turkey s energy transition is more expensive than starting it at once 329 The 2053 target was reportedly set without consulting the Energy Ministry and as of 2023 that ministry has not published a decarbonization roadmap 330 Research and data access editSabanci University s Shura Energy Transition Center is researching decarbonization pathways 331 Linear regression expert judgement and local integrated assessment modelling is used for non energy projections 24 8 210 33 Emissions from industry have been modelled by the Energy Ministry and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey using TIMES MACRO 210 33 On 2021 trends the OECD expects emissions to double from 2015 to 2030 97 59 A Climate Change Platform is planned to share studies and data 94 46 Although the OECD praised the government s monitoring reporting and verification MRV system and said in 2021 that it covers half of total emissions 97 61 unlike the public sharing of data in the EU emission trading system much detailed emissions data in Turkey is not public 332 Quantitative estimates of the impact of individual government policies on emissions have not been made or are not publicly available 58 20 neither are projections of long term policy impacts 58 21 As of 2021 update the most recent UNFCCC expert review noted that up to date GDP and population growth forecasts have not been incorporated into models 24 8 and assumptions such as future energy intensity energy demand and electricity consumption were unknown 24 8 and that no sensitivity analysis of GHG scenarios had been published 24 11 The UNFCCC has asked for more details needed to understand emission projections such as assumptions about future tax levels fuel prices energy demand and intensity income and household size 24 12 but Turkey has said that many such details are confidential 58 27 28 Although a number of issues raised in greenhouse gas inventory reviews have been resolved dozens more have been outstanding for over three years 333 39 Space based measurements of the signs of emissions has allowed public monitoring of the megacity of Istanbul and high emitting power plants since the early 2020s 334 335 Notes edit Since national communications are required every four years the fifth biennial report and eighth national communication may be combined as one document as was the case previously 23 Under IPCC guidelines the energy sector includes fuel for transport The carbon content t TJ oxidation factor and CO2 emission intensity t TJ NCV respectively of lignite burnt in Turkish power stations in 2021 was as follows 1 50 amp 51 table 3 5 3 6 3 7 lignite 30 0 97 104 The extremely low quality lignite is explained in detail in Coal in Turkey The CO2 emission intensity or emission factor shown above is the mass of CO2 emitted for each unit of heat produced by burning a fuel In contrast the grid emission intensity is the mass of CO2e produced per unit of electricity supplied to the electrical grid Because thermal power stations generally convert less than half of the heat energy into electrical energy 36 their numbers for grid emission intensity are much greater than the emission intensity figures shown above The objectives they are referring to may be Sustainable Development Goal 7 and Sustainable Development Goal 13 62 megatonnes would be emitted annually 42 319 if run at the targeted capacity factor whereas Turkey s current annual emissions are 506 megatonnes By simple arithmetic 62 megatonnes is more than 10 of 506 62 megatonnes On average somewhat over a million tonnes of CO2 was emitted for every TWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal fired power stations in 2010 41 177 This power station aims to generate just over 12 5 TWh gross per year 42 346 The calculation in the EIA assumes an emission factor of 94 6 tCO2 TJ 42 319 Although the average is about 2 200 the net calorific value of Turkish lignite varies from 1 000 to 6 000 kcal kg 1 59 Emissions from international trips are not included in a country s emissions total but fuel sales for international aviation can be found in Common Reporting Format category 1 A 3 a 1A Turkey has joined the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation In 2015 Turkey submitted its emissions target to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC up to 21 percent reduction in greenhouse gas GhG emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030 and aiming to emit 929 Mt of CO2 before subtracting CO2 absorbed by forests in 2030 95 The country will probably 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