2020 United States presidential election in Florida

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.^[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout	77.17% (of registered voters)^[1] 2.69 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 29 0 Popular vote 5,668,731 5,297,045 Percentage 51.22% 47.86%
County Results Congressional District Results Precinct Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Votes
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.^[a]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.^[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen.^[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016.^[7] Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won the state by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012.^[8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.^[9][10] In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election since 1992 that Florida backed the losing Republican incumbent as well as the loser of the election overall. Despite this, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.

Primary election

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]

2020 Florida Republican presidential primary^[11][12]

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	1,162,984	93.79	122
Bill Weld	39,319	3.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)	25,464	2.05
Rocky De La Fuente	12,172	0.98
Total	1,239,939	100%	122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.^[13][14][15]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.^[16]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]

 

Popular vote share by county

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

  Biden—60–70%

  Biden—70–80%

  Biden—80–90%

2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary^[17]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[18]
Joe Biden	1,077,375	61.95	162
Bernie Sanders	397,311	22.84	57
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)^[b]	146,544	8.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	39,886	2.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)^[b]	32,875	1.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	17,276	0.99
Tulsi Gabbard	8,712	0.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	5,286	0.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	4,244	0.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	2,510	0.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	1,744	0.10
John Delaney (withdrawn)	1,583	0.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	1,507	0.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn)	1,036	0.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)	664	0.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	661	0.04
Total	1,739,214	100%	219

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report^[19]	Tossup
Inside Elections^[20]	Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[21]	Lean R
Politico^[22]	Tossup
RCP^[23]	Tossup
Niskanen^[24]	Tossup
CNN^[25]	Tossup
The Economist^[26]	Lean D (flip)
CBS News^[27]	Tossup
270towin^[28]	Tossup
ABC News^[29]	Tossup
NPR^[30]	Tossup
NBC News^[31]	Lean D (flip)
538^[32]	Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided^[c]	Margin
270 to Win	October 24 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	48.7%	46.0%	5.3%	Biden +2.7
Real Clear Politics	October 28 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	47.9%	47.0%	5.1%	Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	49.1%	46.6%	4.3%	Biden +2.5
Average			48.6%	46.5%	4.9%	Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[d]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35	Nov 1–2, 2020^[e]	400 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	47%	2%	-	–	3%
Trafalgar Group	Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020	1,054 (LV)	± 2.94%	49%	47%	2%	-	1%^[f]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	8,792 (LV)	± 1.5%	49%^[g]	49%	-	-	–	–
AYTM/Aspiration	Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020	517 (LV)	–	43%	45%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020	806 (LV)	± 3.45%	48%	51%	0%	0%	–	1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness^[A]	Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	46%	2%	-	2%^[h]	3%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2020	1,657 (LV)	± 2.4%	42%	47%	-	-	1%^[f]	9%
Swayable November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	1,261 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	53%	1%	1%	–	–
Data for Progress	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	1,202 (LV)	± 2.8%	48%	51%	1%	1%	0%^[i]	–
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	670 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%^[j]	50%	1%	0%	1%^[k]	–
				46%^[l]	50%	-	-	2%^[m]	2%
				47%^[n]	51%	-	-	2%^[o]	–
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere^[B]	Oct 30–31, 2020	768 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	51%	-	-	–	–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	Oct 29–31, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	-	-	3%^[p]	–
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 27–31, 2020	1,451 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	47%	2%	1%	0%^[q]	6%^[r]
Morning Consult	Oct 22–31, 2020	4,451 (LV)	± 2%	45%	52%	-	-	–	–
St. Pete Polls	Oct 29–30, 2020	2,758 (LV)	± 1.9%	48%	49%	1%	-	–	2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 28–30, 2020	1,200 (LV)	± 2.8%	47%^[j]	51%	-	-	2%^[o]	0%
				45%^[s]	52%	-	-	2%^[o]	0%
				48%^[t]	49%	-	-	2%^[o]	0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart	Oct 25–30, 2020	1,027 (LV)	–	47%	51%	-	-	2%^[u]	–
AtlasIntel	Oct 28–29, 2020	786 (LV)	± 3%	48.5%	48.5%	-	-	–	3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020^[C]	Oct 28–29, 2020	941 (V)	–	45%	52%	-	-	–	3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill	Oct 26–29, 2020	1,148 (LV)	± >=3%	47%	50%	-	-	–	3%
ABC/Washington Post	Oct 24–29, 2020	824 (LV)	± 4%	50%	48%	1%	0%	0%^[v]	0%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 27–28, 2020	1,587 (LV)	–	46%	50%	1%	0%	0%	3%
Trafalgar Group	Oct 25–28, 2020	1,088 (LV)	± 2.89%	50%	47%	2%	-	1%^[f]	1%
Monmouth University	Oct 24–28, 2020	509 (RV)	± 4.7%	45%	50%	1%	0%	1%^[w]	2%
		509 (LV)		45%^[x]	51%	-	-	–	–
				46%^[y]	50%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	14,571 (LV)	–	50%	48%	-	-	–	–
Marist College/NBC	Oct 25–27, 2020	743 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	51%	-	-	1%	1%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 23–27, 2020	1,324 (LV)	± 2.7%	42%	45%	-	-	1%^[f]	11%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 21–27, 2020	704 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%^[j]	48%	1%	1%	2%^[z]	–
				47%^[l]	49%	-	-	3%^[aa]	2%
Swayable	Oct 23–26, 2020	605 (LV)	± 5.4%	51%	46%	2%	1%	–	–
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University	Oct 16–26, 2020	1,200 (LV)	± 3.2%	46%	48%	-	-	–	6%
Wick Surveys	Oct 24–25, 2020	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	50%	47%	-	-	–	–
Florida Atlantic University	Oct 24–25, 2020	937 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	50%	-	-	2%^[ab]	–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness^[A]	Oct 23–25, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	44%	2%	-	3%^[ac]	3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	Oct 17–25, 2020	743 (RV)	± 3.56%	46%	49%	-	-	2%^[ab]	3%
Ryan Tyson (R)	Released Oct 24, 2020	– (V)^[ad]	–	47%	45%	-	-	3%^[ae]	4%
Gravis Marketing	Oct 24, 2020	665 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	47%	-	-	–	5%
YouGov/CBS	Oct 20–23, 2020	1,228 (LV)	± 3.6%	48%	50%	-	-	2%^[af]	0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	Oct 21–22, 2020	2,527 (LV)	± 2%	47%	49%	-	-	2%^[ag]	2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 20–22, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%^[j]	50%	-	-	1%^[ah]	1%
				46%^[s]	52%	-	-	1%^[ah]	1%
				48%^[t]	46%	-	-	1%^[ah]	1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	Oct 20–21, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	-	-	3%^[ai]	3%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 14–21, 2020	662 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%^[j]	51%	1%	0%	2%^[z]	–
				46%^[l]	50%	-	-	1%^[aj]	3%
Citizen Data	Oct 17–20, 2020	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	50%	1%	0%	1%	4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 17–20, 2020	863 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	51%	-	-	1%^[f]	1%
CNN/SSRS	Oct 15–20, 2020	847 (LV)	± 4%	46%	50%	1%	1%	0%^[ak]	1%
Morning Consult	Oct 11–20, 2020	4,685 (LV)	± 1.4%	45%	52%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 16–19, 2020	547 (LV)^[e]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida	Oct 12–16, 2020	863 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	48%	-	-	1%^[f]	3%
HarrisX/The Hill[1]	Oct 12–15, 2020	965 (LV)	–	48%	48%	-	-	–	4%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 7–14, 2020	653 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%^[j]	50%	0%	0%	2%^[al]	–
				47%^[l]	49%	-	-	1%^[aj]	3%
Trafalgar Group	Oct 11–13, 2020	1,051 (LV)	± 2.94%	48%	46%	2%	1%	1%^[f]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 10–13, 2020	1,519 (LV)	–	44%^[e]	50%	1%	0%	–	–
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	Oct 11–12, 2020	2,215 (LV)	± 2.1%	47%	49%	-	-	1%^[am]	2%
Emerson College	Oct 10–12, 2020	690 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%^[an]	51%	-	-	1%^[f]	–
Mason-Dixon	Oct 8–12, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4%	45%	48%	-	-	1%^[ao]	6%
Clearview Research	Oct 7–12, 2020	550 (LV)	± 4.18%	40%^[j]	47%	-	-	4%^[ap]	9%
				39%^[aq]	48%	-	-	4%^[ap]	9%
				41%^[ar]	46%	-	-	4%^[ap]	9%
Morning Consult	Oct 2–11, 2020	4,785 (LV)	± 1.4%	46%	51%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 9–10, 2020	750 (LV)	–	42%^[e]	53%	1%	0%	–	–
Florida Atlantic University	Oct 9–10, 2020	644 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	51%	-	-	2%^[ab]	–
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 4–8, 2020	800 (LV)	–	46%^[j]	48%	1%	1%	1%	4%
				44%^[s]	50%	1%	1%	1%	4%
				47%^[t]	46%	1%	1%	1%	4%
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R)	Oct 6–7, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	46%	1%	-	–	10%
YouGov/CCES November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020	3,755 (LV)	–	47%	49%	-	-	–	–
Ipsos/Reuters	Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020	678 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	49%	-	-	1%^[aj]	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 4–6, 2020	998 (LV)	± 3.1%	44%	49%	1%	0%	1%^[as]	6%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 1–5, 2020	1,256 (LV)	± 2.8%	40%	51%	-	-	1%^[f]	7%
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 2–4, 2020	560 (LV)	–	46%	50%	-	-	–	–
Suffolk University/USA Today[2]	Oct 1–4, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%^[j]	45%	2%	0%^[at]	2%^[au]	6%
				46%^[av]	45%	-	-	2%^[aw]	7%
University of North Florida	Oct 1–4, 2020	3,134 (LV)	± 1.8%	45%	51%	-	-	1%^[f]	3%^[r]
St. Leo University	Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020	489 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020	710 (LV)	± 4.2%	42%	47%	2%	1%	0%^[q]	8%^[r]
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	12,962 (LV)	–	47%	51%	-	-	–	2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce	Sep 23–29, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	44%^[e]	49%	-	-	–	–
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness^[A]	Sep 23–26, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	43%	46%	3%	-	–	8%^[r]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Sep 23–25, 2020	1,073 (LV)	± 2.99%	43%	48%	1%	1%	1%^[as]	7%
St. Pete Polls	Sep 21–22, 2020	2,906 (LV)	± 1.8%	47%	50%	-	-	2%^[ag]	2%
Data For Progress^[D]	Sep 15–22, 2020	620 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	46%	-	-	–	11%
Change Research/CNBC	Sep 18–20, 2020	702 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
ABC/Washington Post	Sep 15–20, 2020	613 (LV)	± 4.5%	51%	47%	-	-	1%^[ax]	1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign^[permanent dead link]^[E]	Sep 17–19, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	51%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS	Sep 15–18, 2020	1,205 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	48%	-	-	1%^[ay]	5%
Ipsos/Reuters	Sep 11–17, 2020	586 (LV)	± 4.6%	47%	47%	-	-	2%^[m]	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Sep 12–14, 2020	1,158 (LV)	± 2.88%	44%	47%	1%	1%	1%^[as]	6%
Monmouth University	Sep 10–13, 2020	428 (RV)	± 4.7%	45%	50%	2%	0%	1%^[az]	3%
		428 (LV)		45%^[ba]	50%	-	-	1%^[bb]	3%
				46%^[bc]	49%	-	-	1%^[bb]	3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report	Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020	1,009 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	43%	-	-	4%^[bd]	11%
Florida Atlantic University	Sep 11–12, 2020	631 (LV)	± 3.8%	50%	50%	-	-	0%^[be]	–
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP	Sep 7–8, 2020	2,689 (LV)	± 1.9%	47%	50%	-	-	2%^[ag]	2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP	Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020	1,600 (LV)	± 2.5%	46%	48%	-	-	2%^[bf]	4%
Morning Consult	Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020	3,914 (LV)	± (2%-4%)	43%^[bg]	50%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Sep 4–6, 2020	1,144 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	4%^[bh]	–
Marist College/NBC	Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020	760 (LV)	± 4.5%	48%	48%	-	-	1%	2%
Trafalgar Group	Sep 1–3, 2020	1,022 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	2%	-	1%^[bi]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020	1,093 (LV)	± 2.96%	43%	48%	1%	1%	1%^[as]	6%
GQR Research (D)	Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	51%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac September 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020	1,235 (LV)	± 2.8%	45%	48%	-	-	1%^[f]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	12,286 (LV)	–	50%	48%	-	-	–	2%
Morning Consult	Aug 21–30, 2020	3,790 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	47%	49%	-	-	–	–
Opinium/The Guardian[3]	Aug 21–26, 2020	684 (LV)	–	43%	50%	-	-	1%	6%
Change Research/CNBC	Aug 21–23, 2020	1,262 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
PPP	Aug 21–22, 2020	671 (V)	± 3.8%	44%	48%	-	-	–	7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	Aug 16, 2020	1,280 (LV)	–	41%	49%	1%	-	1%^[as]	7%
Morning Consult	Aug 7–16, 2020	3,484 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance^[F]	Aug 11–15, 2020	750 (LV)	± 4%	44%	46%	2%	-	1%^[bj]	6%
Change Research/CNBC	Aug 7–9, 2020	469 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action^[G]	Aug 2–4, 2020	400 (LV)	–	49%	49%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	13,945 (LV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	2%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 24–26, 2020	685 (LV)	–	45%	48%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26, 2020	3,760 (LV)	± 1.6%	46%^[bg]	49%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	Jul 16–25, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
CNN/SSRS	Jul 18–24, 2020	880 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	51%	-	-	2%^[bk]	2%
Zogby Analytics	Jul 21–23, 2020	811 (RV)	± 3.4%	43%	43%	3%	2%	–	9%
Mason-Dixon	Jul 20–23, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	50%	-	-	–	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jul 19–21, 2020	1,121 (LV)	–	41%	48%	1%	1%	1%^[as]	8%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 16–20, 2020	924 (RV)	± 4.3%	38%	51%	-	-	6%^[bl]	5%
Morning Consult	Jul 6–15, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls	Jul 13–14, 2020	3,018 (RV)	± 1.8%	44%	50%	-	-	2%^[bm]	3%
Gravis Marketing	Jul 13, 2020	513 (LV)	± 4.3%	43%	53%	-	-	–	4%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 10–12, 2020	1,128 (LV)	–	43%	50%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS	Jul 7–10, 2020	1,206 (LV)	± 3.6%	42%	48%	-	-	2%^[bn]	8%
Morning Consult	Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
Trafalgar Group	Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020	1,072 (LV)	± 2.91%	46%	46%	-	-	5%^[bo]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	5,663 (LV)	–	51%	47%	-	-	–	2%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 26–28, 2020	951 (LV)^[e]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	Jun 16–25, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
Fox News	Jun 20–23, 2020	1,010 (RV)	± 3%	40%	49%	-	-	6%^[bp]	6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Jun 8–18, 2020	651 (RV)	± 4.6%	41%	47%	-	-	4%^[bq]	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jun 14–15, 2020	1,079 (LV)	± 2.98%	41%	45%	1%	1%	1%^[as]	11%
Morning Consult	Jun 6–15, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 12–14, 2020	713 (LV)^[e]	–	43%	50%	-	-	3%^[br]	–
Gravis Marketing/OANN	Released Jun 11, 2020	– (V)^[ad]	–	50%	50%	-	-	–	–
TIPP/American Greatness PAC June 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine^[A]	Jun 9–11, 2020	875 (LV)	–	40%	51%	-	-	4%^[bs]	5%
Morning Consult	May 27 – Jun 5, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	48%	47%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	May 29–31, 2020	1,186 (LV)^[e]	–	45%	48%	-	-	2%	4%
Cygnal (R)	May 18–30, 2020	881 (LV)	± 3.3%	43.8%	47%	-	-	3.3%^[bt]	5.9%
St. Pete Polls	May 26–27, 2020	4,763 (RV)	± 1.4%	46.7%	47.5%	-	-	2.7%^[bu]	3.1%
Morning Consult	May 17–26, 2020	3,593 (LV)	–	48%^[bg]	47%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	May 16–25, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	48%	47%	-	-	–	–
Point Blank Political	May 14–17, 2020	2,149 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	45%	1%^[bv]	<1%^[bw]	2%	8%
Point Blank Political	May 14–17, 2020	2,149 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	52%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	May 6–15, 2020	– (LV)^[ad]	–	50%	45%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 10–14, 2020	1,014 (LV)	± 3.1%	43%	45%	-	-	3%^[bx]	10%
Florida Atlantic University	May 8–12, 2020	928 (RV)	± 3.1%	47%	53%	-	-	–	–
Fox News	Apr 18–21, 2020	1,004 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	-	-	3%	7%
Quinnipiac University	Apr 16–20, 2020	1,385 (RV)	± 2.6%	42%	46%	-	-	3%	7%
St. Pete Polls	Apr 16–17, 2020	5,659 (RV)	± 1.3%	48%	48%	-	-	–	4%
University of North Florida	Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020	3,244 (RV)	± 1.7%	40%	46%	-	-	–	8%
AtlasIntel	Mar 14–16, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	-	-	10%	–
Univision	Mar 6–12, 2020	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	45%	-	-	–	7%
Florida Atlantic University	Mar 5–7, 2020	1,216 (RV)	± 2.7%	51%	49%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida	Feb, 2020	696 (LV)	–	45%	45%	-	-	–	10%^[r]
Saint Leo University	Feb 17–22, 2020	900 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	51%	-	-	–	8%
University of North Florida	Feb 10–18, 2020	668 (RV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	3%
Florida Atlantic University	Jan 9–12, 2020	1,285 (RV)	± 2.6%	49%	51%	-	-	–	–
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce^[H]	Jan 3–12, 2020	608 (LV)	± 4%	49%	45%	-	-	–	–
Mason-Dixon	Dec 11–16, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	-	-	–	8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 13–26, 2019	650 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	46%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida	Oct 14–20, 2019	643 (RV)	± 3.8%	43%	48%	-	-	6%^[by]	3%
Florida Atlantic University	Sep 12–15, 2019	934 (RV)	± 3.1%	50.5%	49.5%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Jun 12–17, 2019	1,279 (RV)	± 3.3%	41%	50%	-	-	1%	6%
St. Pete Polls	Jun 15–16, 2019	3,095 (LV)	± 1.8%	47%	47%	-	-	–	6%
Florida Atlantic University	May 16–19, 2019	1,007 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	50%	-	-	–	–
WPA Intelligence	Apr 27–30, 2019	200 (LV)	± 6.9%	48%	44%	-	-	–	7%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% – 12% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) – 44% 50% – 6% Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce^[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44% – – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% – 15% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) – 49% 45% – 7% Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50% – – Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce^[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 6% University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%^[bz] 9% Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%^[ca] 7% Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48% – – Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47% – – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% – 16% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) – 48% 44% – 8% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7% Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11% – Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% – 8% Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47% – – Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) – 48% 48% – 4% Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – 7% Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – – Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% – – Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% – 14% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) – 47% 47% – 6% Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% – – Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce^[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7% Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%^[by] 6% Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – – Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – – Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% – 14%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Oprah Winfrey (D) Other Undecided Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13% with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling (D)^[I] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6% Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9% with Donald Trump and generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%^[cb] 18%^[cc] with Mike Pence and Joe Biden Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Joe Biden (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%^[ca] 5% with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) ± 3.0% 46.8% 46.7% 6.5% with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[d] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%^[ca] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida^[33]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	5,668,731	51.22%	+2.20%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	5,297,045	47.86%	+0.04%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	70,324	0.64%	−1.56%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	14,721	0.13%	−0.55%
	Reform	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	5,966	0.05%	−0.05%
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	5,712	0.05%	N/A
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	3,902	0.04%	−0.13%
	Write-in		1,055	0.01%	−0.26%
Total votes			11,067,456	100.00%

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Other votes		Margin		Total votes
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Alachua	35.63%	50,972	62.71%	89,704	0.97%	1,390	0.69%	981	-27.08%	-38,732	143,047
Baker	84.58%	11,911	14.47%	2,037	0.66%	93	0.29%	41	70.11%	9,874	14,082
Bay	70.91%	66,097	27.48%	25,614	1.08%	1,004	0.53%	498	43.43%	40,483	93,213
Bradford	75.71%	10,334	23.15%	3,160	0.81%	110	0.34%	46	52.56%	7,174	13,650
Brevard	57.48%	207,883	41.08%	148,549	0.88%	3,178	0.56%	2,043	16.40%	59,334	361,653
Broward	34.74%	333,409	64.48%	618,752	0.32%	3,114	0.45%	4,365	-29.74%	-285,343	959,640
Calhoun	80.68%	5,274	18.49%	1,209	0.44%	29	0.38%	25	62.19%	4,065	6,537
Charlotte	62.84%	73,243	36.27%	42,273	0.48%	565	0.41%	477	26.57%	30,970	116,558
Citrus	69.98%	65,352	29.01%	27,092	0.59%	548	0.42%	396	40.97%	38,260	93,388
Clay	67.77%	84,480	30.74%	38,317	1.03%	1,286	0.46%	577	37.03%	46,163	124,660
Collier	61.91%	128,950	37.27%	77,621	0.43%	889	0.40%	825	24.64%	51,329	208,285
Columbia	72.03%	23,836	26.94%	8,914	0.68%	224	0.36%	118	45.09%	14,922	33,092
DeSoto	65.58%	8,313	33.60%	4,259	0.41%	52	0.41%	52	31.98%	4,054	12,676
Dixie	82.70%	6,759	16.70%	1,365	0.33%	27	0.27%	22	66.00%	5,394	8,173
Duval	47.30%	233,762	51.11%	252,556	0.97%	4,788	0.62%	3,055	-3.81%	-18,794	494,161
Escambia	56.58%	96,674	41.51%	70,929	1.26%	2,146	0.64%	1,107	15.07%	25,745	170,856
Flagler	59.90%	43,043	39.19%	28,161	0.50%	359	0.42%	300	20.71%	14,882	71,863
Franklin	68.16%	4,675	30.91%	2,120	0.39%	27	0.54%	37	37.25%	2,555	6,859
Gadsden	31.42%	7,465	67.98%	16,153	0.40%	96	0.20%	48	-36.56%	-8,688	23,762
Gilchrist	81.37%	7,895	17.52%	1,700	0.63%	61	0.47%	46	63.85%	6,195	9,702
Glades	72.69%	3,782	26.62%	1,385	0.40%	21	0.29%	15	46.07%	2,397	5,203
Gulf	74.80%	6,113	24.29%	1,985	0.59%	48	0.32%	26	50.51%	4,128	8,172
Hamilton	65.33%	3,815	33.61%	1,963	0.57%	33	0.50%	29	31.72%	1,852	5,840
Hardee	72.01%	6,122	27.03%	2,298	0.47%	40	0.49%	42	44.98%	3,824	8,502
Hendry	61.02%	7,906	38.04%	4,929	0.50%	65	0.43%	56	22.98%	2,977	12,956
Hernando	64.51%	70,412	34.37%	37,519	0.63%	686	0.49%	533	30.14%	32,893	109,150
Highlands	66.75%	34,873	32.42%	16,938	0.43%	223	0.40%	209	34.33%	17,935	52,243
Hillsborough	45.85%	327,398	52.71%	376,367	0.79%	5,665	0.65%	4,638	-6.86%	-48,969	714,068
Holmes	89.01%	8,080	10.18%	924	0.53%	48	0.29%	26	78.83%	7,156	9,078
Indian River	60.23%	58,872	38.72%	37,844	0.55%	534	0.50%	490	21.51%	21,028	97,740
Jackson	68.97%	15,488	30.13%	6,766	0.52%	116	0.38%	86	38.84%	8,722	22,456
Jefferson	52.89%	4,479	46.02%	3,897	0.54%	46	0.54%	46	6.87%	382	8,468
Lafayette	85.42%	3,128	13.93%	510	0.38%	14	0.27%	10	71.49%	2,618	3,662
Lake	59.56%	125,859	39.52%	83,505	0.66%	1,385	0.27%	565	20.04%	42,354	211,314
Lee	59.09%	233,247	39.95%	157,695	0.51%	2,016	0.46%	1,800	19.14%	75,552	394,758
Leon	35.14%	57,453	63.32%	103,517	0.82%	1,344	0.72%	1,162	-28.18%	-46,064	163,476
Levy	72.24%	16,749	26.76%	6,205	0.57%	131	0.43%	100	45.48%	10,544	23,185
Liberty	79.83%	2,846	19.47%	694	0.39%	14	0.31%	11	60.36%	2,152	3,565
Madison	59.36%	5,576	39.89%	3,747	0.34%	32	0.40%	38	19.47%	1,829	9,393
Manatee	57.47%	124,987	41.46%	90,166	0.59%	1,287	0.47%	1,032	16.01%	34,821	217,472
Marion	62.44%	127,826	36.57%	74,858	0.58%	1,180	0.42%	852	25.87%	52,968	204,716
Martin	61.82%	61,168	37.29%	36,893	0.45%	448	0.44%	433	24.53%	24,275	98,942
Miami-Dade	45.98%	532,833	53.31%	617,864	0.29%	3,329	0.42%	4,892	-7.33%	-85,031	1,158,918
Monroe	53.38%	25,693	45.46%	21,881	0.72%	348	0.44%	213	7.92%	3,812	48,135
Nassau	72.25%	42,566	26.42%	15,564	0.97%	569	0.37%	216	45.83%	27,002	58,915
Okaloosa	68.35%	79,798	29.34%	34,248	1.61%	1,881	0.70%	816	39.01%	45,550	116,743
Okeechobee	71.76%	11,470	27.46%	4,390	0.41%	66	0.36%	58	44.30%	7,080	15,984
Orange	37.80%	245,398	60.85%	395,014	0.72%	4,685	0.62%	4,060	-23.05%	-149,616	649,157
Osceola	42.53%	73,480	56.31%	97,297	0.56%	964	0.60%	1,043	-13.78%	-23,817	172,784
Palm Beach	43.21%	334,711	55.97%	433,572	0.39%	3,040	0.42%	3,274	-12.76%	-98,861	774,597
Pasco	59.36%	179,621	39.35%	119,073	0.75%	2,265	0.55%	1,662	20.01%	60,548	302,621
Pinellas	49.22%	276,209	49.44%	277,450	0.76%	4,268	0.58%	3,234	-0.22%	-1,241	561,161
Polk	56.56%	194,586	42.16%	145,049	0.75%	2,595	0.52%	1,796	14.40%	49,537	344,026
Putnam	70.05%	25,514	28.90%	10,527	0.62%	226	0.43%	155	41.15%	14,987	36,422
Santa Rosa	72.19%	77,385	25.76%	27,612	1.53%	1,645	0.52%	556	46.43%	49,773	107,198
Sarasota	54.71%	148,370	44.29%	120,110	0.56%	1,507	0.44%	1,182	10.42%	28,260	271,169
Seminole	47.89%	125,241	50.67%	132,528	0.85%	2,215	0.60%	1,549	-2.78%	-7,287	261,533
St. Johns	62.66%	110,946	36.06%	63,850	0.80%	1,413	0.47%	838	26.60%	47,096	177,047
St. Lucie	50.38%	86,831	48.82%	84,137	0.45%	768	0.36%	613	1.56%	2,694	172,349
Sumter	67.76%	62,761	31.68%	29,341	0.29%	269	0.27%	253	36.08%	33,420	92,624
Suwannee	77.84%	16,410	21.27%	4,485	0.56%	119	0.33%	69	56.57%	11,925	21,083
Taylor	76.45%	7,751	22.68%	2,299	0.51%	52	0.36%	36	53.77%	5,452	10,138
Union	82.11%	5,133	16.85%	1,053	0.67%	42	0.37%	23	65.26%	4,080	6,251
Volusia	56.42%	173,821	42.38%	130,575	0.70%	2,156	0.51%	1,557	14.04%	43,246	308,109
Wakulla	69.79%	12,874	29.01%	5,351	0.73%	135	0.48%	88	40.78%	7,523	18,448
Walton	75.23%	32,947	23.61%	10,338	0.77%	336	0.40%	174	51.62%	22,609	43,795
Washington	80.06%	9,876	19.03%	2,347	0.56%	69	0.35%	43	61.03%	7,529	12,335

 Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

 Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

 County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
• Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
• Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.^[34]

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	65.9%	32.4%	Matt Gaetz
2nd	67%	32%	Neal Dunn
3rd	56%	42.8%	Ted Yoho
			Kat Cammack
4th	59.9%	38.9%	John Rutherford
5th	36.2%	62.7%	Al Lawson
6th	58.3%	40.8%	Michael Waltz
7th	44.2%	54.6%	Stephanie Murphy
8th	58.3%	40.6%	Bill Posey
9th	46%	52.9%	Darren Soto
10th	37%	62%	Val Demings
11th	65.4%	33.8%	Daniel Webster
12th	57.9%	41%	Gus Bilirakis
13th	47.4%	51.5%	Charlie Crist
14th	41.6%	57.2%	Kathy Castor
15th	53.7%	45.2%	Ross Spano
			Scott Franklin
16th	53.6%	45.5%	Vern Buchanan
17th	63.3%	35.9%	Greg Steube
18th	53.9%	45.5%	Brian Mast
19th	59.7%	39.6%	Francis Rooney
			Byron Donalds
20th	22.1%	77.3%	Alcee Hastings
21st	41.2%	58.2%	Lois Frankel
22nd	42.3%	57.2%	Ted Deutch
23rd	41.2%	58.3%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th	24%	75.4%	Frederica Wilson
25th	61.2%	38.2%	Mario Díaz-Balart
26th	52.5%	46.9%	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
			Carlos Giménez
27th	48.1%	51.3%	Donna Shalala
			Maria Elvira Salazar

Analysis

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004.^[35]

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.^[36][37] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying St. Lucie County since Bill Clinton in 1992, the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884.^[38]

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes.^[39] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.^[40]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican.^[41] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.^[42] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.^[43] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.^[44] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.^[45]

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.^[42]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Florida
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
2. Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
4. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
5. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
6. "Someone else" with 1%
7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
8. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
9. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
10. Standard VI response
11. West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
12. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
13. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
14. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
15. "Some other candidate" with 2%
16. "Someone else" with 3%
17. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
18. Includes "Refused"
19. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
20. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
21. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
22. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
23. "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
24. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
25. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
26. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
27. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
28. "Someone else" with 2%
29. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
30. Not yet released
31. "Refused" with 3%
32. "Other third party" with 2%
33. "Third party" with 2%
34. "Some other candidate" with 1%
35. "Some other candidate" with 3%
36. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
37. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
38. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
39. "Third party" with 1%
40. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
41. "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
42. "Someone else" with 4%
43. Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
44. Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
45. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
46. No voters
47. "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
48. With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
49. "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
50. "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
51. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
52. "No one" with 1%
53. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
54. "Other" with 1%
55. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
56. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
57. "Someone else" with 0%
58. Would not vote with 2%
59. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
60. "Other/not sure" with 4%
61. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
62. "Refused" with 1%
63. "Other" and "Neither" 1%
64. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
65. "Third-party candidate" with 2%
66. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
67. "Other party candidate" with 5%
68. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
69. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
70. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
71. "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
72. "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
73. "Third party" with 2.7%
74. "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
75. "Green nominee" with 0.4%
76. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
77. Would not vote with 6%
78. Would not vote with 7%
79. Would not vote with 8%
80. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
81. "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%

Partisan clients

1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
2. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
4. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
5. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
6. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
7. Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
8. Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
9. Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

References

1. November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
5. "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
6. Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
7. Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
8. Nagourney, Adam; Goldmacher, Shane; Thrush, Glenn (November 4, 2020). "Big gains among Latinos in the Miami area power Trump to victory in Florida". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
9. "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
10. "Florida 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
11. "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
12. "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
13. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
14. Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
15. Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
16. "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
17. "March 17, 2020 Primary Election: Democratic Primary". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
18. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
19. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
20. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
21. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
22. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
23. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
24. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
25. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
26. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
27. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
28. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
29. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
30. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
31. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
32. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
33. "November 3, 2020 General Election Official Results". Florida Department of State. November 17, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
34. Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
35. "Florida Presidential Election Voting History".
36. "The Political Graveyard: Duval County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
37. "The Political Graveyard: Seminole County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
38. "The Political Graveyard: Monroe County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
39. "Initiative Information". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
40. Mazzei, Patricia (September 11, 2020). "Court Ruling Deals Blow to Ex-Felons' Voting Rights in Florida". The New York Times.
41. Viteri, Amy; Torres, Andrea (November 6, 2020). "Presidential election: Here is why eastern Miami-Dade is celebrating and western Miami-Dade is not". Local 10 Miami. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
42. Daugherty, Alex; Smiley, David; Padró Ocasio, Bianca; Wieder, Ben (November 6, 2020). "How non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami helped deliver Florida for Donald Trump". Miami Herald. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
43. Smiley, David (September 21, 2020). "Why some Cuban-Americans in Florida are supporting Biden over Trump". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
44. "Cuban Americans show strong support for Trump". University of Miami. October 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
45. Gomez Licon, Adriana (October 30, 2020). "With salsa, caravans, Cubans make last push to reelect Trump". Associated Press. Retrieved November 8, 2020.

Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 30, 2020), , Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 7, 2020, retrieved September 7, 2020
• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington, D.C.: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Florida
• Nick Corasaniti; Stephanie Saul; Patricia Mazzei (September 13, 2020), , The New York Times, archived from the original on September 13, 2020, Both parties are waging legal battles around the country over who gets to vote and how
• Jonathan Martin; Patricia Mazzei (September 14, 2020), , The New York Times, archived from the original on September 14, 2020
• David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (describes bellwether Pinellas County, Florida)

Videos

• "Conservative Cubans, Venezuelans in Miami on why they voted for Trump". The Washington Post. November 4, 2020. Archived from the original on November 14, 2021.

External links

• Florida Elections Commission government website
• "League of Women Voters of Florida". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Florida at Ballotpedia
• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Florida", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Florida: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA