Polling for United States presidential elections

Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.^[1] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner.^[2] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012.^[2] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party. Third parties, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party, were included in some polls.^[3]

Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016

1936

 

1936 Presidential Election Polls

1936^[3]

Month	Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) %	Alf Landon (R) %
July	49%	45%
August	49%	45%
	49%	45%
	49%	44%
September	49%	45%
	50%	44%
October	51%	44%
	51%	44%
	56%	44%
Actual result	60.80%	36.54%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+4.80%	-7.46%

After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.

The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed. Roosevelt won 57 percent of Literary Digest readers who received the poll.^[4] Roosevelt won in the largest landslide since the uncontested 1820 election, winning every state except Maine and Vermont, since his New Deal programs were popular with the American people (apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll). Although Landon said that the New Deal was costly and ineffective and Roosevelt was slowly molding the United States into a dictatorship, his attacks gained little traction.^[5]

1940

 

1940 Presidential Polling

1940^[3]

Month	Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) %	Wendell Willkie (R)%
July	48%	42%
	44%	43%
August	45%	43%
	46%	44%
September	49%	40%
October	50%	40%
	51%	42%
	52%	48%
Actual result	54.74%	44.78%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+2.74%	-3.22%

Throughout his campaign, Roosevelt promised to continue the New Deal and not bring the United States into any new wars if he was given another term. Willkie unsuccessfully attacked Roosevelt for seeking a third term and accused him of trying to turn the United States into a dictatorship by refusing to leave office. Roosevelt led in all polls, and was re-elected by a large margin.^[6]

1944

 

1944 Presidential Polling

1944^[3]

Month	Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) %	Thomas E. Dewey (R) %
March	55%	41%
	53%	42%
April	48%	46%
May	48%	47%
	50%	45%
June	51%	45%
	51%	44%
July	46%	45%
	49%	41%
August	47%	42%
	47%	45%
September	47%	42%
	50%	45%
	48%	41%
	47%	45%
October	48%	47%
	50%	47%
November	51%	48%
Actual result	53.39%	45.89%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+2.39%	-2.11%

Roosevelt actively campaigned in this election against medical advice to counter Republican claims that he was near death. Roosevelt maintained a consistent (although sometimes narrow) lead in the polls, and won a solid victory due to American success in World War II and his continued popularity.^[7]

1948

 

1948 Presidential Polling

1948^[3]

Month	Harry S. Truman (D) %	Thomas E. Dewey (R) %	Henry A. Wallace (Progressive) %	Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) %
December 1947/January 1948	46%	41%	7%
February/March	39%	47%	7%
April/May
June/July	38%	49%	6%
	37%	48%	5%
August/September	37%	48%	4%	2%
	36%	49%	5%	3%
	39%	47%	3%	2%
	39%	47%	3%	2%
	40%	46%	4%	2%
October^[8]	45%	50%	4%	2%
Actual result	49.55%	45.07%	2.37%	2.41%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+4.55%	-4.93%	-1.63%	+0.41%

While incumbent President Truman's popularity was low at the end of 1946, it improved with his attack on the "Do-Nothing" Republican Congress of 1947–1948 and his association of Dewey with it. Truman also energized segments of the Democratic base by ending segregation in the military and recognizing Israel.^[9] Gallup and other polling organizations stopped polling in mid-October, believing that Dewey would win the election, and failed to predict Truman's comeback or his subsequent victory.^[1]

1952

 

1952 Presidential Polling

1952^[3]

Month	Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) %	Adlai Stevenson II (D) %
June	59%	31%
July	50%	43%
August
September	55%	40%
	55%	41%
October	53%	41%
	51%	38%
	48%	39%
	48%	39%
	51%	49%
Actual result	55.18%	44.33%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+4.18%	-4.67%

Dissatisfaction with the Korean War, corruption and the threat of Communism (the K1c2 formula) allowed World War II hero Eisenhower to win the election in a landslide after consistently leading in the polls, mostly by large margins.^[10]

1956

 

1956 Presidential Polling

1956^[3]

Month	Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) %	Adlai Stevenson II (D) %
December 1955/January 1956	61%	35%
February/March	63%	33%
April/May	61%	37%
	62%	33%
	62%	35%
June/July	62%	35%
	61%	37%
August/September	52%	41%
	52%	41%
	52%	40%
October/November	51%	41%
	59%	40%
Actual result	57.37%	41.97%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-1.63%	+1.97%

After consistently leading in the polls by large margins, incumbent President Eisenhower was easily re-elected due to economic prosperity at home and the end of the Korean War abroad.^[11][12]

1960

 

1960 Presidential Polling

1960^[3]

Month	John F. Kennedy (D) %	Richard Nixon (R) %
December 1959/January 1960	43%	48%
February/March	48%	48%
	50%	45%
April/May	51%	44%
	48%	47%
	47%	49%
June/July	50%	46%
August/September	44%	50%
	47%	47%
	48%	47%
	46%	47%
October/November	49%	46%
	49%	45%
	51%	49%
Actual result	49.72%	49.55%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-1.28%	+0.55%

Polls throughout the campaign indicated a very close race. Incumbent Vice President Nixon initially led, but then had problems (a poor image in the first television debate and a knee injury which prevented him from campaigning) which gave Kennedy the lead in the polls for most of the campaign. In the end, Kennedy had an extremely close victory.^[13]

1964

 

1964 Presidential Polling

1964^[3]

Month	Lyndon B. Johnson (D) %	Barry Goldwater (R) %
June	77%	18%
	76%	20%
July	62%	26%
	59%	31%
August	65%	29%
September	65%	29%
	62%	32%
October	64%	29%
	64%	36%
Actual result	61.05%	38.47%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-2.95%	+2.47%

Incumbent President Johnson maintained a large lead in the polls and won in a landslide due to popular sympathy after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, a good economy, lack of severe foreign problems, and an effective campaign to portray Goldwater as a dangerous, out-of-touch extremist.

1968

 

1968 Presidential Polling

1968^[3]

Month	Richard Nixon (R) %	Hubert Humphrey (D) %	George Wallace (American Independent) %
April	43%	34%	9%
May	39%	36%	14%
	36%	42%	14%
June	37%	42%	14%
July	35%	40%	16%
	40%	38%	16%
August	45%	29%	18%
September	43%	31%	19%
	43%	28%	21%
	44%	29%	20%
October	44%	36%	15%
November	43%	42%	15%
Actual result	43.42%	42.72%	13.53%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+0.42%	+0.72%	-1.47%

The campaign was always close according to the polls, but after the tumultuous 1968 Democratic Convention Nixon established and maintained a lead. American Independent candidate George Wallace ran in opposition to civil rights and in support of segregation and received considerable support in the South. Humphrey began catching up to Nixon in the polls late in the campaign, but ran out of time as Nixon won a narrow victory.

1972

 

1972 Presidential Polling

1972^[3]

Month	Richard Nixon (R) %	George McGovern (D) %
May	53%	34%
June	53%	37%
July	56%	37%
August	57%	31%
	64%	30%
September	61%	33%
October	60%	34%
	59%	36%
November	62%	38%
Actual result	60.67%	37.52%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-1.33%	-0.48%

Incumbent President Nixon was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Massachusetts after maintaining a large poll lead due to the economic recovery from the 1969–1970 recession and his portrayal of McGovern as a foreign-policy lightweight and social radical ("amnesty, abortion, and acid"). McGovern was also hurt by his change of vice-presidential candidates in mid-campaign, raising questions about his judgement.^[14]

1976

 

1976 Presidential Election

1976^[3]

Month	Jimmy Carter (D) %	Gerald Ford (R) %
March	47%	42%
	48%	46%
	48%	46%
April	48%	43%
May	52%	42%
	53%	40%
June	55%	37%
	53%	36%
July	62%	29%
August	54%	32%
	51%	36%
September	51%	40%
October	47%	45%
	47%	41%
	48%	49%
Actual result	50.08%	48.02%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+2.08%	-0.98%

Carter opened up a large lead over incumbent President Ford due to dissatisfaction with Watergate, Ford's pardon of Nixon and the sluggish economy. Ford closed the gap near the end of the campaign with good debate performances, among other things. He was hurt by his comment that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and ran out of time to close the polling gap with Carter, who won by a narrow margin.

1980

 

1980 Presidential Election

1980^[3]

Month	Ronald Reagan (R) %	Jimmy Carter (D) %	John B. Anderson (I) %
December 1979/January 1980	33%	62%
February/March	31%	60%
	33%	58%
	34%	40%	21%
April/May	34%	41%	18%
	32%	38%	21%
	32%	40%	21%
June/July	32%	39%	21%
	33%	35%	24%
	37%	32%	22%
	37%	34%	21%
August/September	45%	29%	14%
	38%	39%	13%
	39%	39%	14%
October/November	40%	44%	9%
	39%	45%	9%
	47%	44%	8%
Actual result	50.75%	41.01%	6.61%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+3.75%	-2.99%	-1.39%

During primary season, incumbent Jimmy Carter held a steady lead over Republican front-running California Governor Ronald Reagan. Reagan passed Carter in the polls after the primaries, winning over voters dissatisfied with Carter's handling of the economy, the energy crisis, and the Iran hostage crisis. As the race ended, Carter had apparently closed the gap with Reagan; some outlets gave him the lead. Reagan ran an upbeat campaign focused on fixing the economy and restoring America's image, diminished by Watergate and the war in Vietnam. Carter was more negative, attacking Reagan's record on civil rights and social issues, but Reagan easily defeated him.^[15]

1984

 

1984 Presidential Election

1984^[3]

Month	Ronald Reagan (R) %	Walter Mondale (D) %
December 1983/January 1984	48%	47%
	53%	43%
February/March	52%	42%
	50%	45%
	52%	44%
April/May	54%	41%
	52%	44%
	50%	46%
	53%	43%
June/July	53%	44%
	55%	38%
	51%	43%
	53%	39%
	53%	41%
August/September	52%	41%
	56%	37%
	58%	37%
	55%	39%
October/November	58%	38%
	56%	39%
	59%	41%
Actual result	58.77%	40.56%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-0.23%	-0.44%

Reagan had low approval ratings early in his first term,^[16] but by 1983 the economy had improved enough to give him a boost for re-election. His challenger was former Vice President Walter Mondale, who advocated a nuclear freeze, the Equal Rights Amendment and a balanced budget. Mondale benefited from a strong first debate (where the 73-year-old Reagan seemed slow), but the Reagan-Bush ticket had a resounding election victory. Reagan again cast himself as the candidate of optimism, taking credit for an improved economy and an increase in national pride after the social upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s. Mondale's unpopular proposal to raise taxes to reduce the deficit and association with the Carter administration's "malaise" largely doomed his campaign from the start.^[17]

1988

 

1988 Presidential Election

1988^[3]

Month	George H. W. Bush (R) %	Michael Dukakis (D) %
March	52%	40%
April	45%	43%
May	38%	54%
June	38%	52%
	41%	46%
July	41%	47%
	37%	54%
August	42%	49%
September	49%	41%
	47%	42%
October	50%	40%
November	56%	44%
Actual result	53.37%	45.65%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-2.63%	+1.65%

Although Dukakis took a large lead in the initial polls, Vice President Bush's campaign portrayed him as soft on crime and used the good economy, Reagan's popularity and Bush's no new taxes pledge to close the gap and eventually take a large lead. Bush easily won the general election.

1992

 

1992 Presidential Polls

1992^[3]

Month	Bill Clinton (D) %	George H. W. Bush (R) %	Ross Perot (I) %
March	25%	44%	24%
April	26%	41%	25%
May	29%	35%	30%
	25%	35%	35%
June	26%	30%	38%
	25%	31%	39%
	24%	24%	37%
	24%	32%	34%
	27%	33%	32%
July	40%	48%
	56%	34%
	56%	36%
	57%	32%
August	56%	37%
	50%	39%
	52%	42%
September	54%	39%
	51%	42%
	50%	40%
	54%	38%
	51%	35%	8%
October	47%	35%	10%
	50%	34%	9%
	51%	33%	10%
	46%	34%	13%
	47%	34%	14%
	47%	29%	15%
	44%	32%	17%
	41%	30%	20%
	42%	31%	19%
	40%	38%	16%
	41%	40%	14%
	43%	36%	15%
November	49%	37%	14%
Actual result	43.01%	37.45%	18.91%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-5.99%	+0.45%	+4.91%

The polls fluctuated during the spring and early summer, with incumbent President Bush and independent challenger Ross Perot trading the lead. Perot withdrew from the race in July, however, and Clinton took a consistent lead in the polls by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he would fix it ("It's the economy, stupid"). Although Perot returned to the race in September, he could not regain his previous support and Clinton won the general election by a comfortable margin.

1996

 

1996 Presidential Polls

1996^[3]

Month	Bill Clinton (D) %	Bob Dole (R) %	Ross Perot (Reform) %
January	43%	39%	16%
February
March	47%	34%	17%
April	49%	35%	15%
May	47%	32%	19%
	49%	35%	15%
June	49%	33%	17%
July	50%	33%	12%
	50%	35%	10%
August	52%	30%	12%
	48%	39%	7%
	50%	38%	7%
	51%	38%	7%
	55%	34%	6%
September	53%	36%	5%
	54%	36%	4%
	55%	34%	5%
	55%	34%	5%
	55%	32%	6%
	51%	34%	8%
	50%	36%	6%
	52%	36%	4%
	53%	34%	6%
	51%	38%	5%
	49%	39%	6%
	51%	37%	6%
	57%	32%	5%
October	53%	36%	6%
	51%	39%	5%
	55%	35%	5%
	55%	34%	6%
	51%	38%	5%
	56%	35%	4%
	48%	39%	5%
	51%	36%	8%
	54%	35%	6%
	52%	33%	8%
	53%	34%	6%
	54%	34%	7%
	49%	37%	7%
	51%	35%	10%
	50%	37%	7%
November	52%	41%	7%
Actual result	49.23%	40.72%	8.40%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-2.77%	-0.28%	+1.40%

Incumbent President Clinton held a comfortable lead in the polls throughout the campaign due to the good economy, stable international situation, and tying Dole to Newt Gingrich (the unpopular speaker of the House), easily winning the general election.

2000

 

2000 Presidential Polls

2000^[3]

Month	George W. Bush (R) %	Al Gore (D) %	Ralph Nader (Green) %
April	47%	41%	4%
May
June	46%	41%	6%
	50%	38%	6%
July	45%	43%	5%
	50%	39%	4%
August	54%	37%	4%
	55%	39%	2%
	46%	47%	3%
	46%	45%	3%
September	44%	47%	3%
	46%	45%	2%
	42%	49%	3%
	41%	49%	4%
	42%	49%	2%
	41%	49%	3%
	44%	48%	2%
	41%	51%	3%
	42%	50%	2%
	47%	44%	2%
	46%	44%	2%
	46%	44%	3%
	45%	45%	4%
October	41%	49%	2%
	40%	51%	2%
	48%	41%	4%
	50%	42%	4%
	45%	45%	2%
	45%	45%	3%
	48%	43%	2%
	47%	44%	3%
	51%	40%	4%
	44%	46%	4%
	49%	42%	3%
	52%	39%	4%
	49%	42%	3%
	47%	44%	3%
	47%	43%	4%
November	47%	43%	4%
	48%	46%	4%
Actual result	47.91%	48.42%	2.74%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-0.09%	+2.42%	-1.26%

The election was close throughout the campaign; Gore used the good economy to his advantage, but was hurt by being perceived as robotic and pompous. The Lewinsky scandal also might have hurt him, and helped Bush in the polls with voters concerned about moral values.

Despite multiple court challenges by the Gore campaign after a recount in Florida, the Supreme Court upheld the election; Bush won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by 0.51%.^[18]

2004

 

2004 Presidential Polls

2004^[3]

Month	George W. Bush (R) %	John Kerry (D) %
March	44%	50%
	49%	45%
April	47%	43%
	50%	44%
May	47%	47%
	47%	45%
	46%	47%
June	43%	49%
	48%	47%
July	45%	50%
	46%	47%
	51%	45%
August	48%	46%
	48%	46%
September	52%	45%
	52%	44%
October	49%	49%
	48%	49%
	52%	44%
	51%	46%
	49%	49%
Actual result	50.73%	48.27%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+1.73%	-0.73%

The election was closely contested, as dissatisfaction with the Bush administration’s handling of the Iraq War and a sluggish economy helped Kerry. Bush accused Kerry of flip-flopping, however,^[19] and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth accused Kerry of being unpatriotic.

A week before the election, al-Qaeda released a video warning Americans not to re-elect Bush. Bush's poll ratings in swing states then gave him a comfortable lead, and he was re-elected.^[3]

2008

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election

 

2008 Presidential Polls

2008^[3]

Month	Barack Obama (D) %	John McCain (R) %
March	46%	44%
	43%	47%
April	46%	43%
	45%	45%
May	42%	48%
	47%	43%
	44%	47%
June	48%	41%
	45%	45%
July	48%	42%
	45%	44%
	49%	40%
	44%	44%
August	48%	42%
	45%	45%
	50%	42%
September	44%	49%
	50%	44%
	46%	46%
October	52%	41%
	49%	43%
	52%	42%
	53%	40%
	53%	42%
Actual result	52.91%	45.64%
Difference between actual result and final poll	-0.09%	+3.64%

The campaign was close during the spring and summer, with Obama and McCain trading the lead. The economy went into recession in December 2007,^[20] but Obama was initially hurt in the polls by Hillary Clinton supporters.^[21] The Republicans attacked him for being inexperienced,^[22] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after choosing Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee. The financial crisis allowed Obama to open a consistent, comfortable lead in the polls at the beginning of October, however, and he won the election by a comfortable margin.^[3]

2012

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election

 

2012 Presidential Polls

2012^[23]

Month	Barack Obama (D) %	Mitt Romney (R) %
February	48%	44%
	49%	43%
	49%	44%
March	47%	45%
	48%	44%
April	48%	43%
	49%	43%
	47%	44%
	48%	44%
May	47%	44%
	46%	46%
	47%	45%
	46%	44%
June	48%	45%
	46%	45%
	47%	44%
July	46%	45%
	47%	45%
	46%	45%
	47%	45%
August	48%	44%
	47%	45%
	47%	46%
September	47%	47%
	49%	45%
	48%	45%
	49%	45%
October	49%	46%
	47%	48%
	47%	47%
	47%	48%
November	49%	48%
Actual result	51.07%	47.20%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+2.07%	-0.80%

President Obama and his campaign aired early negative ads calling Republican challenger Mitt Romney an out-of-touch, plutocratic, wealthy job destroyer since his days as CEO at Bain Capital. Romney bounced back in the polls after strong performances in the primaries and because the economy was still recovering from the 2007–2009 recession.

In April, after Obama publicly expressed his support of same-sex marriage and a story was published about Romney bullying a high-school classmate who was thought to be gay, Obama took larger leads in the polls. Romney and the Republicans attacked him for claiming that the economy was doing well, for welfare waivers, and China's unfair trade practices. The polls were close during most of the summer as Romney made several gaffes on a trip to Europe and Israel during the Olympics. He was also hurt by the release of a speech he delivered at a campaign fundraiser in which suggested that 47 percent of Americans, who did not pay federal income taxes, would "vote for the President, no matter what" because they felt "entitled to health care, to food, to housing - you name it."

After the conventions, Obama had a clear lead until he did poorly in the first debate. Romney took the lead, and the polls were tied in early and mid-October. The Democrats then regained their momentum; Obama won re-election by a closer margin in the popular vote, but by a large margin in the Electoral College.

2016

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

 

2016 Presidential Polls

2016^[24]

Month	Donald Trump (R) %	Hillary Clinton (D) %	Gary Johnson (L) %	Jill Stein (G) %
June	36%	41%	7%	4%
	37%	42%	8%	5%
July	37%	41%	7%	4%
	38%	41%	9%	4%
	40%	40%	7%	3%
August	38%	42%	7%	3%
	36%	44%	9%	4%
	37%	44%	9%	3%
	37%	42%	9%	3%
	38%	42%	8%	3%
September	39%	41%	8%	3%
	40%	42%	9%	3%
	40%	41%	8%	3%
	42%	43%	7%	2%
October	41%	44%	7%	3%
	39%	44%	7%	2%
	39%	46%	7%	2%
	40%	45%	6%	2%
November	43%	45%	5%	2%
	42%	46%	5%	2%
Actual result	46.09%	48.18%	3.28%	1.13%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+4.09%	+2.18%	-1.72%	-0.87%

Political outsider and businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were seen unfavorably by many pollsters and pundits, and it was predicted that Trump would lose by a large margin to Democratic opponent Clinton. Trump won over many white, blue-collar workers in the Great Lakes and Rust Belt regions (former Democratic strongholds), enabling him to win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by slightly over two percent.^[25]

2020

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election

 

2020 Presidential Polls

2020^[26]

Month	Joe Biden (D) %	Donald Trump (R) %
February	50%	45%
	50%	46%
March	50%	44%
	51%	44%
	50%	44%
April	47%	42%
	48%	42%
May	47%	43%
	49%	44%
	48%	42%
June	49%	42%
	50%	42%
	51%	41%
	50%	40%
July	50%	41%
	49%	40%
	50%	41%
	51%	42%
August	49%	42%
	50%	42%
September	49%	43%
	50%	43%
	49%	43%
October	51%	42%
	52%	42%
	51%	43%
November	51%	44%
Actual result	51.31%	46.86%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+0.31%	+2.86%

Former Vice President Joe Biden had been leading in most national polls, but President Donald Trump believed that the polls would underestimate him again. Although the polls had underestimated Trump's strength nationally and in Ohio, Florida, and Iowa, Biden won back the blue Midwestern states and made inroads in the Sun Belt to win the election.

See also

• Nationwide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election
• Nationwide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election
• Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election
• Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election

References

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