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Emerging technologies

Emerging technologies are technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized. These technologies are generally new but also include older technologies finding new applications. Emerging technologies are often perceived as capable of changing the status quo.

Emerging technologies are characterized by radical novelty (in application even if not in origins), relatively fast growth, coherence, prominent impact, and uncertainty and ambiguity. In other words, an emerging technology can be defined as "a radically novel and relatively fast growing technology characterised by a certain degree of coherence persisting over time and with the potential to exert a considerable impact on the socio-economic domain(s) which is observed in terms of the composition of actors, institutions and patterns of interactions among those, along with the associated knowledge production processes. Its most prominent impact, however, lies in the future and so in the emergence phase is still somewhat uncertain and ambiguous."[1]

Emerging technologies include a variety of technologies such as educational technology, information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, robotics, and artificial intelligence.[note 1]

New technological fields may result from the technological convergence of different systems evolving towards similar goals. Convergence brings previously separate technologies such as voice (and telephony features), data (and productivity applications) and video together so that they share resources and interact with each other, creating new efficiencies.

Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage;[2] converging technologies represent previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter-connection and similar goals. However, the opinion on the degree of the impact, status and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies varies.

History of emerging technologies Edit

In the history of technology, emerging technologies[3][4] are contemporary advances and innovation in various fields of technology.

Over centuries innovative methods and new technologies are developed and opened up. Some of these technologies are due to theoretical research, and others from commercial research and development.

Technological growth includes incremental developments and disruptive technologies. An example of the former was the gradual roll-out of DVD (digital video disc) as a development intended to follow on from the previous optical technology compact disc. By contrast, disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and makes it redundant, for example, the replacement of horse-drawn carriages by automobiles and other vehicles.

Emerging technology debates Edit

Many writers, including computer scientist Bill Joy,[5] have identified clusters of technologies that they consider critical to humanity's future. Joy warns that the technology could be used by elites for good or evil. They could use it as "good shepherds" for the rest of humanity or decide everyone else is superfluous and push for mass extinction of those made unnecessary by technology.[6]

Advocates of the benefits of technological change typically see emerging and converging technologies as offering hope for the betterment of the human condition. Cyberphilosophers Alexander Bard and Jan Söderqvist argue in The Futurica Trilogy that while Man himself is basically constant throughout human history (genes change very slowly), all relevant change is rather a direct or indirect result of technological innovation (memes change very fast) since new ideas always emanate from technology use and not the other way around.[7] Man should consequently be regarded as history's main constant and technology as its main variable. However, critics of the risks of technological change, and even some advocates such as transhumanist philosopher Nick Bostrom, warn that some of these technologies could pose dangers, perhaps even contribute to the extinction of humanity itself; i.e., some of them could involve existential risks.[8][9]

Much ethical debate centers on issues of distributive justice in allocating access to beneficial forms of technology. Some thinkers, including environmental ethicist Bill McKibben, oppose the continuing development of advanced technology partly out of fear that its benefits will be distributed unequally in ways that could worsen the plight of the poor.[10] By contrast, inventor Ray Kurzweil is among techno-utopians who believe that emerging and converging technologies could and will eliminate poverty and abolish suffering.[11]

Some analysts such as Martin Ford, author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future,[12] argue that as information technology advances, robots and other forms of automation will ultimately result in significant unemployment as machines and software begin to match and exceed the capability of workers to perform most routine jobs.

As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further, even many skilled jobs may be threatened. Technologies such as machine learning[13] may ultimately allow computers to do many knowledge-based jobs that require significant education. This may result in substantial unemployment at all skill levels, stagnant or falling wages for most workers, and increased concentration of income and wealth as the owners of capital capture an ever-larger fraction of the economy. This in turn could lead to depressed consumer spending and economic growth as the bulk of the population lacks sufficient discretionary income to purchase the products and services produced by the economy.[14]

Examples of emerging technologies Edit

 
 
Artificial neural network with chip
Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence Edit

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the sub intelligence exhibited by machines or software, and the branch of computer science that develops machines and software with animal-like intelligence. Major AI researchers and textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents," where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success. John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956, defines it as "the study of making intelligent machines".

The central functions (or goals) of AI research include reasoning, knowledge, planning, learning, natural language processing (communication), perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects. General intelligence (or "strong AI") is still among the field's long-term goals. Currently, popular approaches include deep learning, statistical methods, computational intelligence and traditional symbolic AI. There is an enormous number of tools used in AI, including versions of search and mathematical optimization, logic, methods based on probability and economics, and many others.

 
3D printer

3D printing Edit

3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, has been posited by Jeremy Rifkin and others as part of the third industrial revolution.[17]

Combined with Internet technology, 3D printing would allow for digital blueprints of virtually any material product to be sent instantly to another person to be produced on the spot, making purchasing a product online almost instantaneous.

Although this technology is still too crude to produce most products, it is rapidly developing and created a controversy in 2013 around the issue of 3D printed firearms.[18]

Gene therapy Edit

Gene therapy was first successfully demonstrated in late 1990/early 1991 for adenosine deaminase deficiency, though the treatment was somatic – that is, did not affect the patient's germ line and thus was not heritable. This led the way to treatments for other genetic diseases and increased interest in germ line gene therapy – therapy affecting the gametes and descendants of patients.

Between September 1990 and January 2014, there were around 2,000 gene therapy trials conducted or approved.[19]

Cancer vaccines Edit

A cancer vaccine is a vaccine that treats existing cancer or prevents the development of cancer in certain high-risk individuals. Vaccines that treat existing cancer are known as therapeutic cancer vaccines. There are currently no vaccines able to prevent cancer in general.

On April 14, 2009, The Dendreon Corporation announced that their Phase III clinical trial of Provenge, a cancer vaccine designed to treat prostate cancer, had demonstrated an increase in survival. It received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for use in the treatment of advanced prostate cancer patients on April 29, 2010.[20] The approval of Provenge has stimulated interest in this type of therapy.[21]

Cultured meat Edit

Cultured meat, also called in vitro meat, clean meat, cruelty-free meat, shmeat, and test-tube meat, is an animal-flesh product that has never been part of a living animal with exception of the fetal calf serum taken from a slaughtered cow. In the 21st century, several research projects have worked on in vitro meat in the laboratory.[22] The first in vitro beefburger, created by a Dutch team, was eaten at a demonstration for the press in London in August 2013.[23] There remain difficulties to be overcome before in vitro meat becomes commercially available.[24] Cultured meat is prohibitively expensive, but it is expected that the cost could be reduced to compete with that of conventionally obtained meat as technology improves.[25][26] In vitro meat is also an ethical issue. Some argue that it is less objectionable than traditionally obtained meat because it doesn't involve killing and reduces the risk of animal cruelty, while others disagree with eating meat that has not developed naturally.[citation needed]

Nanotechnology Edit

Nanotechnology (sometimes shortened to nanotech) is the manipulation of matter on an atomic, molecular, and supramolecular scale. The earliest widespread description of nanotechnology[27][28] referred to the particular technological goal of precisely manipulating atoms and molecules for fabrication of macroscale products, also now referred to as molecular nanotechnology. A more generalized description of nanotechnology was subsequently established by the National Nanotechnology Initiative, which defines nanotechnology as the manipulation of matter with at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometers. This definition reflects the fact that quantum mechanical effects are important at this quantum-realm scale, and so the definition shifted from a particular technological goal to a research category inclusive of all types of research and technologies that deal with the special properties of matter that occur below the given size threshold.

Robotics Edit

Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots,[29] as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing. These technologies deal with automated machines that can take the place of humans in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes, or resemble humans in appearance, behavior, and/or cognition. A good example of a robot that resembles humans is Sophia, a social humanoid robot developed by Hong Kong-based company Hanson Robotics which was activated on April 19, 2015. Many of today's robots are inspired by nature contributing to the field of bio-inspired robotics.

 
Self-replicating 3D printer

Stem-cell therapy Edit

Stem cell therapy is an intervention strategy that introduces new adult stem cells into damaged tissue in order to treat disease or injury. Many medical researchers believe that stem cell treatments have the potential to change the face of human disease and alleviate suffering.[30] The ability of stem cells to self-renew and give rise to subsequent generations with variable degrees of differentiation capacities[31] offers significant potential for generation of tissues that can potentially replace diseased and damaged areas in the body, with minimal risk of rejection and side effects.

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-modified T cells have raised among other immunotherapies for cancer treatment, being implemented against B-cell malignancies. Despite the promising outcomes of this innovative technology, CAR-T cells are not exempt from limitations that must yet to be overcome in order to provide reliable and more efficient treatments against other types of cancer.[32]

Distributed ledger technology Edit

Distributed ledger or blockchain technology provides a transparent and immutable list of transactions. A wide range of uses has been proposed for where an open, decentralised database is required, ranging from supply chains to cryptocurrencies.

Smart contracts are self-executing transactions which occur when pre-defined conditions are met. The aim is to provide security that is superior to traditional contract law, and to reduce transaction costs and delays. The original idea was conceived by Nick Szabo in 1994,[33] but remained unrealised until the development of blockchains.[34][35]

Augmented reality Edit

This type of technology where digital graphics are loaded onto live footage has been around since the 20th century, but thanks to the arrival of more powerful computing hardware and the implementation of open source, this technology has been able to do things that we never thought were possible. Some ways in which we have used this technology can be through apps such as Pokémon Go, Snapchat and Instagram filters and other apps that create fictional things in real objects.[36]

Multi-use rockets Edit

This technology can be attributed to Elon Musk and the space company SpaceX, where instead of creating single use rockets that have no purpose after their launch, they are now able to land safely in a pre-specified place where they can recover them and use them again in later launches.[36] This technology is believed to be one of the most important factors for the future of space travel, making it more accessible and also less polluting for the environment.[dubious ].

Development of emerging technologies Edit

As innovation drives economic growth, and large economic rewards come from new inventions, a great deal of resources (funding and effort) go into the development of emerging technologies. Some of the sources of these resources are described below.

Research and development Edit

Research and development is directed towards the advancement of technology in general, and therefore includes development of emerging technologies. See also List of countries by research and development spending.

Applied research is a form of systematic inquiry involving the practical application of science. It accesses and uses some part of the research communities' (the academia's) accumulated theories, knowledge, methods, and techniques, for a specific, often state-, business-, or client-driven purpose.

Science policy is the area of public policy which is concerned with the policies that affect the conduct of the science and research enterprise, including the funding of science, often in pursuance of other national policy goals such as technological innovation to promote commercial product development, weapons development, health care and environmental monitoring.

Patents Edit

 
Top 30 AI patent applicants in 2016

Patents provide inventors with a limited period of time (minimum of 20 years, but duration based on jurisdiction) of exclusive right in the making, selling, use, leasing or otherwise of their novel technological inventions. Artificial intelligence, robotic inventions, new material, or blockchain platforms may be patentable, the patent protecting the technological know-how used to create these inventions.[37] In 2019, WIPO reported that AI was the most prolific emerging technology in terms of number of patent applications and granted patents, the Internet of things was estimated to be the largest in terms of market size. It was followed, again in market size, by big data technologies, robotics, AI, 3D printing and the fifth generation of mobile services (5G).[38] Since AI emerged in the 1950s, 340000 AI-related patent applications were filed by innovators and 1.6 million scientific papers have been published by researchers, with the majority of all AI-related patent filings published since 2013. Companies represent 26 out of the top 30 AI patent applicants, with universities or public research organizations accounting for the remaining four.[39]

DARPA Edit

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is an agency of the U.S. Department of Defense responsible for the development of emerging technologies for use by the military.

DARPA was created in 1958 as the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) by President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Its purpose was to formulate and execute research and development projects to expand the frontiers of technology and science, with the aim to reach beyond immediate military requirements.

Projects funded by DARPA have provided significant technologies that influenced many non-military fields, such as the Internet and Global Positioning System technology.

Technology competitions and awards Edit

There are awards that provide incentive to push the limits of technology (generally synonymous with emerging technologies). Note that while some of these awards reward achievement after-the-fact via analysis of the merits of technological breakthroughs, others provide incentive via competitions for awards offered for goals yet to be achieved.

The Orteig Prize was a $25,000 award offered in 1919 by French hotelier Raymond Orteig for the first nonstop flight between New York City and Paris. In 1927, underdog Charles Lindbergh won the prize in a modified single-engine Ryan aircraft called the Spirit of St. Louis. In total, nine teams spent $400,000 in pursuit of the Orteig Prize.

The XPRIZE series of awards, public competitions designed and managed by the non-profit organization called the X Prize Foundation, are intended to encourage technological development that could benefit mankind. The most high-profile XPRIZE to date was the $10,000,000 Ansari XPRIZE relating to spacecraft development, which was awarded in 2004 for the development of SpaceShipOne.

The Turing Award is an annual prize given by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) to "an individual selected for contributions of a technical nature made to the computing community." It is stipulated that the contributions should be of lasting and major technical importance to the computer field. The Turing Award is generally recognized as the highest distinction in computer science, and in 2014 grew to $1,000,000.

The Millennium Technology Prize is awarded once every two years by Technology Academy Finland, an independent fund established by Finnish industry and the Finnish state in partnership. The first recipient was Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web.

In 2003, David Gobel seed-funded the Methuselah Mouse Prize (Mprize) to encourage the development of new life extension therapies in mice, which are genetically similar to humans. So far, three Mouse Prizes have been awarded: one for breaking longevity records to Dr. Andrzej Bartke of Southern Illinois University; one for late-onset rejuvenation strategies to Dr. Stephen Spindler of the University of California; and one to Dr. Z. Dave Sharp for his work with the pharmaceutical rapamycin.

Role of science fiction Edit

Science fiction has often affected innovation and new technology - for example many rocketry pioneers were inspired by science fiction[40] - and the documentary How William Shatner Changed the World gives a number of examples of imagined technologies being actualized.

In the media Edit

The term bleeding edge has been used to refer to some new technologies, formed as an allusion to the similar terms "leading edge" and "cutting edge". It tends to imply even greater advancement, albeit at an increased risk because of the unreliability of the software or hardware.[41] The first documented example of this term being used dates to early 1983, when an unnamed banking executive was quoted to have used it in reference to Storage Technology Corporation.[42]

See also Edit

Notes Edit

  1. ^ Other examples of developments described as "emerging technologies" can be found here – O'Reilly Emerging Technology Conference 2008.

References Edit

Citations
  1. ^ Rotolo, Daniele; Hicks, Diana; Martin, Ben R. (December 2015). "What is an emerging technology?" (PDF). Research Policy. 44 (10): 1827–1843. arXiv:1503.00673. doi:10.1016/j.respol.2015.06.006. S2CID 15234961. SSRN 2564094.
  2. ^ International Congress Innovation and Technology XXI: Strategies and Policies Towards the XXI Century, & Soares, O. D. D. (1997). Innovation and technology: Strategies and policies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.[page needed]
  3. ^ Einsiedel, Edna F., ed. (2009). Emerging Technologies: From Hindsight to Foresight. UBC Press. ISBN 978-0-7748-5865-6.
  4. ^ Emerging technologies: where is the federal government on the high tech curve? : hearing before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology of the Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives, One Hundred Sixth Congress, second session, April 24, 2000
  5. ^ See: Wired Magazine, "Why the future doesn't need us",
  6. ^ Joy, Bill (2000). "Why the future doesn't need us". Wired. Retrieved November 14, 2005.
  7. ^ Bard, Alexander; Söderqvist, Jan (May 8, 2012). The Futurica Trilogy. Stockholm Text. ISBN 978-9187173240.
  8. ^ Bostrom, Nick (2002). "Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios". Journal of Evolution and Technology. 9 (1). Retrieved February 21, 2006.
  9. ^ Warwick, K: “March of the Machines”, University of Illinois Press, 2004
  10. ^ McKibben, Bill (2003). Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age. Times Books. ISBN 978-0-8050-7096-5.
  11. ^ Kurzweil, Raymond (2005). The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Viking Adult. ISBN 978-0-670-03384-3.
  12. ^ Ford, Martin R. (2009), The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, Acculant Publishing, ISBN 978-1448659814. (e-book available free online.)
  13. ^ Ford, Martin (April 14, 2011). "Machine Learning: A job killer?". econfuture. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  14. ^ Saenz, Aaron (December 15, 2009). "Martin Ford Asks: Will Automation Lead to Economic Collapse?". singularityhub.com. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  15. ^ Circuit boards began development in the 1960s. An example, among others, includes Stacked Printed Circuit Board by Victor F. Dahlgren et al. U.S. Patent 3,409,732. See also: System in Package (SiP) or Chip Stack MCM
  16. ^ This conceptual drawing measures in diameter 200+ m (660 ft.+).
  17. ^ . Office of Jeremy Rifkin. Archived from the original on February 25, 2017. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  18. ^ Estes, Adam Clark (January 6, 2015). "3D-Printed Guns Are Only Getting Better, and Scarier". Gizmodo. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  19. ^ "Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide". www.wiley.com. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  20. ^ . Food and Drug Administration. April 29, 2010. Archived from the original on July 23, 2017.
  21. ^ Dimond, Patricia Fitzpatrick (October 18, 2010). . genengnews.com. Archived from the original on August 14, 2016.
  22. ^ Siegelbaum, D.J. (April 23, 2008). . Time. Archived from the original on January 22, 2010. Retrieved April 30, 2009.
  23. ^ "World's first lab-grown burger is eaten in London". BBC News. August 5, 2013. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  24. ^ Fountain, Henry (May 12, 2013). "Engineering the $325,000 In Vitro Burger". The New York Times. Retrieved May 28, 2017.
  25. ^ Temple, James (February 23, 2009). "The Future of Food: The No-kill Carnivore". Portfolio.com. Retrieved August 7, 2009.
  26. ^ Preliminary Economics Study of Cultured Meat October 3, 2015, at the Wayback Machine, eXmoor Pharma Concepts, 2008
  27. ^ Drexler, K. Eric (1986). Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology. Doubleday. ISBN 978-0-385-19973-5.
  28. ^ Drexler, K. Eric (1992). Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation. New York: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-471-57547-4.
  29. ^ . Oxford Dictionaries. Archived from the original on May 18, 2011. Retrieved February 4, 2011.
  30. ^ Lindvall, O.; Kokaia, Z. (2006). "Stem cells for the treatment of neurological disorders". Nature. 441 (7097): 1094–1096. Bibcode:2006Natur.441.1094L. doi:10.1038/nature04960. PMID 16810245. S2CID 4425363.
  31. ^ Weissman IL (January 2000). "Stem cells: units of development, units of regeneration, and units in evolution". Cell. 100 (1): 157–68. doi:10.1016/S0092-8674(00)81692-X. PMID 10647940. S2CID 12414450. as cited in Gurtner GC; Callaghan MJ; Longaker MT (2007). "Progress and potential for regenerative medicine". Annu. Rev. Med. 58: 299–312. doi:10.1146/annurev.med.58.082405.095329. PMID 17076602.
  32. ^ Ureña-Bailén, Guillermo; Lamsfus-Calle, Andrés; Daniel-Moreno, Alberto; Raju, Janani; Schlegel, Patrick; Seitz, Christian; Atar, Daniel; Antony, Justin S; Handgretinger, Rupert; Mezger, Markus (May 20, 2020). "CRISPR/Cas9 technology: towards a new generation of improved CAR-T cells for anticancer therapies". Briefings in Functional Genomics. 19 (3): 191–200. doi:10.1093/bfgp/elz039. PMID 31844895.
  33. ^ Szabo, Nick (1996). "Smart Contracts: Building Blocks for Digital Markets". www.fon.hum.uva.nl. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
  34. ^ How blockchain technology could change our lives - European Parliamentary Research Service
  35. ^ Vincenzo, Morabito (2017). Business Innovation Through Blockchain: The B3 Perspective. pp. 101–124.
  36. ^ a b Angelo Young and Michael B. Sauter, Technology: 21 of the most important inventions in the 21st century so far, USA Today: Money, retrieved 11 February 2023.
  37. ^ S. Cadogan, Marsha. "Relationships, Issues Around Intellectual Property, Emerging Technologies". The Lawyer's Daily.
  38. ^ "Intellectual Property and Frontier Technologies". WIPO.
  39. ^ "WIPO Technology Trends 2019 - Artificial Intelligence" (PDF). WIPO. 2019.
  40. ^ Benson, Michael (July 20, 2019). "Opinion | Science Fiction Sent Man to the Moon". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 2, 2022.
  41. ^ Schommer, Ingo; Broschart, Steven (2010). SilverStripe: The Complete Guide to CMS Development. John Wiley & Sons. p. 22. ISBN 978-0-470-68270-8.
  42. ^ Hayes, Thomas C. (March 21, 1983). "Hope at Storage Technology". The New York Times. Retrieved September 10, 2013.

Further reading Edit

General
  • Giersch, H. (1982). Emerging technologies: Consequences for economic growth, structural change, and employment : symposium 1981. Tübingen: Mohr.
  • Jones-Garmil, K. (1997). The wired museum: Emerging technology and changing paradigms. Washington, DC: American Association of Museums.
  • Kaldis, Byron (2010). "Converging Technologies". Sage Encyclopedia of Nanotechnology and Society, Thousand Oaks: CA, Sage
  • Rotolo D.; Hicks D.; Martin B. R. (2015). "What is an emerging technology?". Research Policy. 44 (10): 1827–1843. arXiv:1503.00673. doi:10.1016/j.respol.2015.06.006. S2CID 15234961.
Law and policy
  • Branscomb, L. M. (1993). Empowering technology: Implementing a U.S. strategy. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
  • Raysman, R., & Raysman, R. (2002). Emerging technologies and the law: Forms and analysis. Commercial law intellectual property series. New York, N.Y.: Law Journal Press.
Information and learning
  • Hung, D., & Khine, M. S. (2006). Engaged learning with emerging technologies. Dordrecht: Springer.
  • Kendall, K. E. (1999). Emerging information technologies: Improving decisions, cooperation, and infrastructure. Thousand Oaks, Calif: Sage Publications.
Illustrated
  • Weinersmith, Kelly; Weinersmith, Zach (2017). Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything. Penguin Press. ISBN 978-0399563829.
Other
  • Cavin, R. K., & Liu, W. (1996). Emerging technologies: Designing low power digital systems. [New York]: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.

emerging, technologies, specific, emerging, technologies, list, emerging, technologies, technologies, whose, development, practical, applications, both, still, largely, unrealized, these, technologies, generally, also, include, older, technologies, finding, ap. For specific emerging technologies see the List of emerging technologies Emerging technologies are technologies whose development practical applications or both are still largely unrealized These technologies are generally new but also include older technologies finding new applications Emerging technologies are often perceived as capable of changing the status quo Emerging technologies are characterized by radical novelty in application even if not in origins relatively fast growth coherence prominent impact and uncertainty and ambiguity In other words an emerging technology can be defined as a radically novel and relatively fast growing technology characterised by a certain degree of coherence persisting over time and with the potential to exert a considerable impact on the socio economic domain s which is observed in terms of the composition of actors institutions and patterns of interactions among those along with the associated knowledge production processes Its most prominent impact however lies in the future and so in the emergence phase is still somewhat uncertain and ambiguous 1 Emerging technologies include a variety of technologies such as educational technology information technology nanotechnology biotechnology robotics and artificial intelligence note 1 New technological fields may result from the technological convergence of different systems evolving towards similar goals Convergence brings previously separate technologies such as voice and telephony features data and productivity applications and video together so that they share resources and interact with each other creating new efficiencies Emerging technologies are those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage 2 converging technologies represent previously distinct fields which are in some way moving towards stronger inter connection and similar goals However the opinion on the degree of the impact status and economic viability of several emerging and converging technologies varies Contents 1 History of emerging technologies 2 Emerging technology debates 3 Examples of emerging technologies 3 1 Artificial intelligence 3 2 3D printing 3 3 Gene therapy 3 4 Cancer vaccines 3 5 Cultured meat 3 6 Nanotechnology 3 7 Robotics 3 8 Stem cell therapy 3 9 Distributed ledger technology 3 10 Augmented reality 3 11 Multi use rockets 4 Development of emerging technologies 4 1 Research and development 4 2 Patents 4 3 DARPA 4 4 Technology competitions and awards 5 Role of science fiction 6 In the media 7 See also 8 Notes 9 References 10 Further readingHistory of emerging technologies EditMain article History of technology In the history of technology emerging technologies 3 4 are contemporary advances and innovation in various fields of technology Over centuries innovative methods and new technologies are developed and opened up Some of these technologies are due to theoretical research and others from commercial research and development Technological growth includes incremental developments and disruptive technologies An example of the former was the gradual roll out of DVD digital video disc as a development intended to follow on from the previous optical technology compact disc By contrast disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and makes it redundant for example the replacement of horse drawn carriages by automobiles and other vehicles Emerging technology debates EditSee also Technology and society Many writers including computer scientist Bill Joy 5 have identified clusters of technologies that they consider critical to humanity s future Joy warns that the technology could be used by elites for good or evil They could use it as good shepherds for the rest of humanity or decide everyone else is superfluous and push for mass extinction of those made unnecessary by technology 6 Advocates of the benefits of technological change typically see emerging and converging technologies as offering hope for the betterment of the human condition Cyberphilosophers Alexander Bard and Jan Soderqvist argue in The Futurica Trilogy that while Man himself is basically constant throughout human history genes change very slowly all relevant change is rather a direct or indirect result of technological innovation memes change very fast since new ideas always emanate from technology use and not the other way around 7 Man should consequently be regarded as history s main constant and technology as its main variable However critics of the risks of technological change and even some advocates such as transhumanist philosopher Nick Bostrom warn that some of these technologies could pose dangers perhaps even contribute to the extinction of humanity itself i e some of them could involve existential risks 8 9 Much ethical debate centers on issues of distributive justice in allocating access to beneficial forms of technology Some thinkers including environmental ethicist Bill McKibben oppose the continuing development of advanced technology partly out of fear that its benefits will be distributed unequally in ways that could worsen the plight of the poor 10 By contrast inventor Ray Kurzweil is among techno utopians who believe that emerging and converging technologies could and will eliminate poverty and abolish suffering 11 Some analysts such as Martin Ford author of The Lights in the Tunnel Automation Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future 12 argue that as information technology advances robots and other forms of automation will ultimately result in significant unemployment as machines and software begin to match and exceed the capability of workers to perform most routine jobs As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further even many skilled jobs may be threatened Technologies such as machine learning 13 may ultimately allow computers to do many knowledge based jobs that require significant education This may result in substantial unemployment at all skill levels stagnant or falling wages for most workers and increased concentration of income and wealth as the owners of capital capture an ever larger fraction of the economy This in turn could lead to depressed consumer spending and economic growth as the bulk of the population lacks sufficient discretionary income to purchase the products and services produced by the economy 14 See also Technological innovation system Technological utopianism and Techno progressivism See also Current research in evolutionary biology Bioconservatism Bioethics and Biopolitics Emerging technologies NASA Fuel cell stackDirect methanol cell Solid state air batteriesLi Air composition 3D IC components Master and the slave boards 15 The Semantic Web StackSemantic layer architecture RFID Transceivers Activates passive RFID chip DARPA Power armaturaElectromechanical exoskeleton Agri robot farming Cultivation bots and husbandry Atmo vortex engines 16 Vortex generators Electromagnetic weapons Hydrogen rf plasma dischargerExamples of emerging technologies EditMain article List of emerging technologies Artificial neural network with chipArtificial intelligenceArtificial intelligence Edit Main articles Artificial intelligence and Outline of artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence AI is the sub intelligence exhibited by machines or software and the branch of computer science that develops machines and software with animal like intelligence Major AI researchers and textbooks define the field as the study and design of intelligent agents where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success John McCarthy who coined the term in 1956 defines it as the study of making intelligent machines The central functions or goals of AI research include reasoning knowledge planning learning natural language processing communication perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects General intelligence or strong AI is still among the field s long term goals Currently popular approaches include deep learning statistical methods computational intelligence and traditional symbolic AI There is an enormous number of tools used in AI including versions of search and mathematical optimization logic methods based on probability and economics and many others 3D printer3D printing Edit Main article 3D printing 3D printing also known as additive manufacturing has been posited by Jeremy Rifkin and others as part of the third industrial revolution 17 Combined with Internet technology 3D printing would allow for digital blueprints of virtually any material product to be sent instantly to another person to be produced on the spot making purchasing a product online almost instantaneous Although this technology is still too crude to produce most products it is rapidly developing and created a controversy in 2013 around the issue of 3D printed firearms 18 Gene therapy Edit Main article Gene therapy See also Genetic engineering timeline Gene therapy was first successfully demonstrated in late 1990 early 1991 for adenosine deaminase deficiency though the treatment was somatic that is did not affect the patient s germ line and thus was not heritable This led the way to treatments for other genetic diseases and increased interest in germ line gene therapy therapy affecting the gametes and descendants of patients Between September 1990 and January 2014 there were around 2 000 gene therapy trials conducted or approved 19 Cancer vaccines Edit Main article Cancer vaccine A cancer vaccine is a vaccine that treats existing cancer or prevents the development of cancer in certain high risk individuals Vaccines that treat existing cancer are known as therapeutic cancer vaccines There are currently no vaccines able to prevent cancer in general On April 14 2009 The Dendreon Corporation announced that their Phase III clinical trial of Provenge a cancer vaccine designed to treat prostate cancer had demonstrated an increase in survival It received U S Food and Drug Administration FDA approval for use in the treatment of advanced prostate cancer patients on April 29 2010 20 The approval of Provenge has stimulated interest in this type of therapy 21 Cultured meat Edit Main article Cultured meat Cultured meat also called in vitro meat clean meat cruelty free meat shmeat and test tube meat is an animal flesh product that has never been part of a living animal with exception of the fetal calf serum taken from a slaughtered cow In the 21st century several research projects have worked on in vitro meat in the laboratory 22 The first in vitro beefburger created by a Dutch team was eaten at a demonstration for the press in London in August 2013 23 There remain difficulties to be overcome before in vitro meat becomes commercially available 24 Cultured meat is prohibitively expensive but it is expected that the cost could be reduced to compete with that of conventionally obtained meat as technology improves 25 26 In vitro meat is also an ethical issue Some argue that it is less objectionable than traditionally obtained meat because it doesn t involve killing and reduces the risk of animal cruelty while others disagree with eating meat that has not developed naturally citation needed Nanotechnology Edit Main articles Nanotechnology and Outline of nanotechnology Nanotechnology sometimes shortened to nanotech is the manipulation of matter on an atomic molecular and supramolecular scale The earliest widespread description of nanotechnology 27 28 referred to the particular technological goal of precisely manipulating atoms and molecules for fabrication of macroscale products also now referred to as molecular nanotechnology A more generalized description of nanotechnology was subsequently established by the National Nanotechnology Initiative which defines nanotechnology as the manipulation of matter with at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometers This definition reflects the fact that quantum mechanical effects are important at this quantum realm scale and so the definition shifted from a particular technological goal to a research category inclusive of all types of research and technologies that deal with the special properties of matter that occur below the given size threshold Robotics Edit Main articles Robotics and Outline of robotics Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design construction operation and application of robots 29 as well as computer systems for their control sensory feedback and information processing These technologies deal with automated machines that can take the place of humans in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes or resemble humans in appearance behavior and or cognition A good example of a robot that resembles humans is Sophia a social humanoid robot developed by Hong Kong based company Hanson Robotics which was activated on April 19 2015 Many of today s robots are inspired by nature contributing to the field of bio inspired robotics Self replicating 3D printerStem cell therapy Edit Main article Stem cell therapy Stem cell therapy is an intervention strategy that introduces new adult stem cells into damaged tissue in order to treat disease or injury Many medical researchers believe that stem cell treatments have the potential to change the face of human disease and alleviate suffering 30 The ability of stem cells to self renew and give rise to subsequent generations with variable degrees of differentiation capacities 31 offers significant potential for generation of tissues that can potentially replace diseased and damaged areas in the body with minimal risk of rejection and side effects Chimeric antigen receptor CAR modified T cells have raised among other immunotherapies for cancer treatment being implemented against B cell malignancies Despite the promising outcomes of this innovative technology CAR T cells are not exempt from limitations that must yet to be overcome in order to provide reliable and more efficient treatments against other types of cancer 32 Distributed ledger technology Edit Main articles Blockchain and Smart contracts Distributed ledger or blockchain technology provides a transparent and immutable list of transactions A wide range of uses has been proposed for where an open decentralised database is required ranging from supply chains to cryptocurrencies Smart contracts are self executing transactions which occur when pre defined conditions are met The aim is to provide security that is superior to traditional contract law and to reduce transaction costs and delays The original idea was conceived by Nick Szabo in 1994 33 but remained unrealised until the development of blockchains 34 35 Augmented reality Edit Main article Augmented reality This type of technology where digital graphics are loaded onto live footage has been around since the 20th century but thanks to the arrival of more powerful computing hardware and the implementation of open source this technology has been able to do things that we never thought were possible Some ways in which we have used this technology can be through apps such as Pokemon Go Snapchat and Instagram filters and other apps that create fictional things in real objects 36 Multi use rockets Edit This section is missing information about about anything other than Elon Musk Please expand the section to include this information Further details may exist on the talk page February 2023 Main article Reusable spacecraft This technology can be attributed to Elon Musk and the space company SpaceX where instead of creating single use rockets that have no purpose after their launch they are now able to land safely in a pre specified place where they can recover them and use them again in later launches 36 This technology is believed to be one of the most important factors for the future of space travel making it more accessible and also less polluting for the environment dubious discuss Development of emerging technologies EditAs innovation drives economic growth and large economic rewards come from new inventions a great deal of resources funding and effort go into the development of emerging technologies Some of the sources of these resources are described below Research and development Edit Research and development is directed towards the advancement of technology in general and therefore includes development of emerging technologies See also List of countries by research and development spending Applied research is a form of systematic inquiry involving the practical application of science It accesses and uses some part of the research communities the academia s accumulated theories knowledge methods and techniques for a specific often state business or client driven purpose Science policy is the area of public policy which is concerned with the policies that affect the conduct of the science and research enterprise including the funding of science often in pursuance of other national policy goals such as technological innovation to promote commercial product development weapons development health care and environmental monitoring Patents Edit Top 30 AI patent applicants in 2016Patents provide inventors with a limited period of time minimum of 20 years but duration based on jurisdiction of exclusive right in the making selling use leasing or otherwise of their novel technological inventions Artificial intelligence robotic inventions new material or blockchain platforms may be patentable the patent protecting the technological know how used to create these inventions 37 In 2019 WIPO reported that AI was the most prolific emerging technology in terms of number of patent applications and granted patents the Internet of things was estimated to be the largest in terms of market size It was followed again in market size by big data technologies robotics AI 3D printing and the fifth generation of mobile services 5G 38 Since AI emerged in the 1950s 340000 AI related patent applications were filed by innovators and 1 6 million scientific papers have been published by researchers with the majority of all AI related patent filings published since 2013 Companies represent 26 out of the top 30 AI patent applicants with universities or public research organizations accounting for the remaining four 39 DARPA Edit The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA is an agency of the U S Department of Defense responsible for the development of emerging technologies for use by the military DARPA was created in 1958 as the Advanced Research Projects Agency ARPA by President Dwight D Eisenhower Its purpose was to formulate and execute research and development projects to expand the frontiers of technology and science with the aim to reach beyond immediate military requirements Projects funded by DARPA have provided significant technologies that influenced many non military fields such as the Internet and Global Positioning System technology Technology competitions and awards Edit There are awards that provide incentive to push the limits of technology generally synonymous with emerging technologies Note that while some of these awards reward achievement after the fact via analysis of the merits of technological breakthroughs others provide incentive via competitions for awards offered for goals yet to be achieved The Orteig Prize was a 25 000 award offered in 1919 by French hotelier Raymond Orteig for the first nonstop flight between New York City and Paris In 1927 underdog Charles Lindbergh won the prize in a modified single engine Ryan aircraft called the Spirit of St Louis In total nine teams spent 400 000 in pursuit of the Orteig Prize The XPRIZE series of awards public competitions designed and managed by the non profit organization called the X Prize Foundation are intended to encourage technological development that could benefit mankind The most high profile XPRIZE to date was the 10 000 000 Ansari XPRIZE relating to spacecraft development which was awarded in 2004 for the development of SpaceShipOne The Turing Award is an annual prize given by the Association for Computing Machinery ACM to an individual selected for contributions of a technical nature made to the computing community It is stipulated that the contributions should be of lasting and major technical importance to the computer field The Turing Award is generally recognized as the highest distinction in computer science and in 2014 grew to 1 000 000 The Millennium Technology Prize is awarded once every two years by Technology Academy Finland an independent fund established by Finnish industry and the Finnish state in partnership The first recipient was Tim Berners Lee inventor of the World Wide Web In 2003 David Gobel seed funded the Methuselah Mouse Prize Mprize to encourage the development of new life extension therapies in mice which are genetically similar to humans So far three Mouse Prizes have been awarded one for breaking longevity records to Dr Andrzej Bartke of Southern Illinois University one for late onset rejuvenation strategies to Dr Stephen Spindler of the University of California and one to Dr Z Dave Sharp for his work with the pharmaceutical rapamycin Role of science fiction EditMain article Technology in science fiction Science fiction has often affected innovation and new technology for example many rocketry pioneers were inspired by science fiction 40 and the documentary How William Shatner Changed the World gives a number of examples of imagined technologies being actualized In the media Edit bleeding edge redirects here For other uses see bleeding edge disambiguation The term bleeding edge has been used to refer to some new technologies formed as an allusion to the similar terms leading edge and cutting edge It tends to imply even greater advancement albeit at an increased risk because of the unreliability of the software or hardware 41 The first documented example of this term being used dates to early 1983 when an unnamed banking executive was quoted to have used it in reference to Storage Technology Corporation 42 See also Edit Technology portal Philosophy portal Wikimedia Commons has media related to Emerging technologies List of emerging technologies Foresight Futures studies Future of Humanity Institute Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies Institute on Biotechnology and the Human Future Technological change Differential technological development Accelerating change Moore s law Innovation Technological revolution Transhumanism Technological singularity Upcoming softwareNotes Edit Other examples of developments described as emerging technologies can be found here O Reilly Emerging Technology Conference 2008 References EditCitations Rotolo Daniele Hicks Diana Martin Ben R December 2015 What is an emerging technology PDF Research Policy 44 10 1827 1843 arXiv 1503 00673 doi 10 1016 j respol 2015 06 006 S2CID 15234961 SSRN 2564094 International Congress Innovation and Technology XXI Strategies and Policies Towards the XXI Century amp Soares O D D 1997 Innovation and technology Strategies and policies Dordrecht Kluwer Academic page needed Einsiedel Edna F ed 2009 Emerging Technologies From Hindsight to Foresight UBC Press ISBN 978 0 7748 5865 6 Emerging technologies where is the federal government on the high tech curve hearing before the Subcommittee on Government Management Information and Technology of the Committee on Government Reform House of Representatives One Hundred Sixth Congress second session April 24 2000 See Wired Magazine Why the future doesn t need us Joy Bill 2000 Why the future doesn t need us Wired Retrieved November 14 2005 Bard Alexander Soderqvist Jan May 8 2012 The Futurica Trilogy Stockholm Text ISBN 978 9187173240 Bostrom Nick 2002 Existential risks analyzing human extinction scenarios Journal of Evolution and Technology 9 1 Retrieved February 21 2006 Warwick K March of the Machines University of Illinois Press 2004 McKibben Bill 2003 Enough Staying Human in an Engineered Age Times Books ISBN 978 0 8050 7096 5 Kurzweil Raymond 2005 The Singularity Is Near When Humans Transcend Biology Viking Adult ISBN 978 0 670 03384 3 Ford Martin R 2009 The Lights in the Tunnel Automation Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future Acculant Publishing ISBN 978 1448659814 e book available free online Ford Martin April 14 2011 Machine Learning A job killer econfuture Retrieved May 28 2017 Saenz Aaron December 15 2009 Martin Ford Asks Will Automation Lead to Economic Collapse singularityhub com Retrieved May 28 2017 Circuit boards began development in the 1960s An example among others includes Stacked Printed Circuit Board by Victor F Dahlgren et al U S Patent 3 409 732 See also System in Package SiP or Chip Stack MCM This conceptual drawing measures in diameter 200 m 660 ft Home Office of Jeremy Rifkin Office of Jeremy Rifkin Archived from the original on February 25 2017 Retrieved May 28 2017 Estes Adam Clark January 6 2015 3D Printed Guns Are Only Getting Better and Scarier Gizmodo Retrieved May 28 2017 Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide www wiley com Retrieved May 28 2017 Approval Letter Provenge Food and Drug Administration April 29 2010 Archived from the original on July 23 2017 Dimond Patricia Fitzpatrick October 18 2010 What Comes After Dendreon s Provenge genengnews com Archived from the original on August 14 2016 Siegelbaum D J April 23 2008 In Search of a Test Tube Hamburger Time Archived from the original on January 22 2010 Retrieved April 30 2009 World s first lab grown burger is eaten in London BBC News August 5 2013 Retrieved May 28 2017 Fountain Henry May 12 2013 Engineering the 325 000 In Vitro Burger The New York Times Retrieved May 28 2017 Temple James February 23 2009 The Future of Food The No kill Carnivore Portfolio com Retrieved August 7 2009 Preliminary Economics Study of Cultured Meat Archived October 3 2015 at the Wayback Machine eXmoor Pharma Concepts 2008 Drexler K Eric 1986 Engines of Creation The Coming Era of Nanotechnology Doubleday ISBN 978 0 385 19973 5 Drexler K Eric 1992 Nanosystems Molecular Machinery Manufacturing and Computation New York John Wiley amp Sons ISBN 978 0 471 57547 4 robotics Oxford Dictionaries Archived from the original on May 18 2011 Retrieved February 4 2011 Lindvall O Kokaia Z 2006 Stem cells for the treatment of neurological disorders Nature 441 7097 1094 1096 Bibcode 2006Natur 441 1094L doi 10 1038 nature04960 PMID 16810245 S2CID 4425363 Weissman IL January 2000 Stem cells units of development units of regeneration and units in evolution Cell 100 1 157 68 doi 10 1016 S0092 8674 00 81692 X PMID 10647940 S2CID 12414450 as cited in Gurtner GC Callaghan MJ Longaker MT 2007 Progress and potential for regenerative medicine Annu Rev Med 58 299 312 doi 10 1146 annurev med 58 082405 095329 PMID 17076602 Urena Bailen Guillermo Lamsfus Calle Andres Daniel Moreno Alberto Raju Janani Schlegel Patrick Seitz Christian Atar Daniel Antony Justin S Handgretinger Rupert Mezger Markus May 20 2020 CRISPR Cas9 technology towards a new generation of improved CAR T cells for anticancer therapies Briefings in Functional Genomics 19 3 191 200 doi 10 1093 bfgp elz039 PMID 31844895 Szabo Nick 1996 Smart Contracts Building Blocks for Digital Markets www fon hum uva nl Retrieved March 8 2018 How blockchain technology could change our lives European Parliamentary Research Service Vincenzo Morabito 2017 Business Innovation Through Blockchain The B3 Perspective pp 101 124 a b Angelo Young and Michael B Sauter Technology 21 of the most important inventions in the 21st century so far USA Today Money retrieved 11 February 2023 S Cadogan Marsha Relationships Issues Around Intellectual Property Emerging Technologies The Lawyer s Daily Intellectual Property and Frontier Technologies WIPO WIPO Technology Trends 2019 Artificial Intelligence PDF WIPO 2019 Benson Michael July 20 2019 Opinion Science Fiction Sent Man to the Moon The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved December 2 2022 Schommer Ingo Broschart Steven 2010 SilverStripe The Complete Guide to CMS Development John Wiley amp Sons p 22 ISBN 978 0 470 68270 8 Hayes Thomas C March 21 1983 Hope at Storage Technology The New York Times Retrieved September 10 2013 Further reading EditGeneralGiersch H 1982 Emerging technologies Consequences for economic growth structural change and employment symposium 1981 Tubingen Mohr Jones Garmil K 1997 The wired museum Emerging technology and changing paradigms Washington DC American Association of Museums Kaldis Byron 2010 Converging Technologies Sage Encyclopedia of Nanotechnology and Society Thousand Oaks CA Sage Rotolo D Hicks D Martin B R 2015 What is an emerging technology Research Policy 44 10 1827 1843 arXiv 1503 00673 doi 10 1016 j respol 2015 06 006 S2CID 15234961 Law and policyBranscomb L M 1993 Empowering technology Implementing a U S strategy Cambridge Mass MIT Press Raysman R amp Raysman R 2002 Emerging technologies and the law Forms and analysis Commercial law intellectual property series New York N Y Law Journal Press Information and learningHung D amp Khine M S 2006 Engaged learning with emerging technologies Dordrecht Springer Kendall K E 1999 Emerging information technologies Improving decisions cooperation and infrastructure Thousand Oaks Calif Sage Publications IllustratedWeinersmith Kelly Weinersmith Zach 2017 Soonish Ten Emerging Technologies That ll Improve and or Ruin Everything Penguin Press ISBN 978 0399563829 OtherCavin R K amp Liu W 1996 Emerging technologies Designing low power digital systems New York Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Emerging technologies amp oldid 1168970572, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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