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2021 Canadian federal election

August 22, 2023

The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election.[2]

2021 Canadian federal election
← 2019 September 20, 2021 (2021-09-20) 45th →
338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout62.3%[1] ( 4.7 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Seats before 155 119 32
Seats won 160[a] 119 32
Seat change  5
Popular vote 5,556,629 5,747,410 1,301,615
Percentage 32.62% 33.74% 7.64%
Swing  0.50 pp  0.60 pp  0.01 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (lost) Ran in Beauce (lost)
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55% 0 seats, 1.62%
Seats before 24 2 0
Seats won 25 2 0
Seat change  1
Popular vote 3,036,348 396,988 840,993
Percentage 17.82% 2.33% 4.94%
Swing  1.84 pp  4.22 pp  3.32 pp
Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Trudeau won a third term as prime minister, his second minority government.[3] Though the Liberals were hoping to win a majority government to govern alone,[4] the results were mostly unchanged from the 2019 Canadian federal election.[5] The Liberals won the most seats at 160; as this fell short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, they formed a minority government with support from other parties.[6][7] The Liberals set a record for the lowest vote share of a party that would go on to form government, winning 32.6 per cent of the popular vote, while losing the popular vote to the Conservatives as they did in 2019.[8]

The Conservatives led by Erin O'Toole won 119 seats, two fewer than their result in 2019, and continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet won 32 seats, unchanged from the prior election. The New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh won 25 seats, a net increase of one seat, but nonetheless fell short of expectations.[9] The Green Party maintained two seats but party leader Annamie Paul was defeated for the third[b] time in her riding of Toronto Centre. The party received 2.3 per cent of the popular vote, approximately a third of what they won in 2019.[10][11][12] The People's Party did not win any seats, despite winning nearly 5 per cent of the popular vote, and party leader Maxime Bernier was defeated for the second time[c] in his riding of Beauce.

Following the election, Paul resigned as Green Party leader two months after the election,[13] and O'Toole was ousted as leader by his party's caucus in February 2022 over the poor showing in the election and other controversies ongoing at the time. In March 2022, the NDP formed a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals.[14]

Background

The 2019 Canadian federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs (twelve) for official party status, and no other party won any seats.[15][16]

In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 federal election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the 43rd Canadian Parliament.[17][18][19] Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th federal election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[20][21] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[22][23] On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[24] He stayed on until his successor Erin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[25][26]

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[2] The election was called on the same day as the fall of Kabul.[27]

Political parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented and seats held in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, at dissolution, and after the 2021 federal election. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

 
A polling station on election day
Name Ideology Position Leader 2019 result Seats at
dissolution 		2021 result
Votes (%) Seats Votes (%) Seats
Liberal
Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
33.12%
157 / 338
155 / 338
32.62%
160 / 338
Conservative
Centre-right to right-wing Erin O'Toole
34.34%
121 / 338
119 / 338
33.74%
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois
Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.63%
32 / 338
32 / 338
7.64%
32 / 338
New Democratic
Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
15.98%
24 / 338
24 / 338
17.82%
25 / 338
Green Green politics Annamie Paul
6.55%
3 / 338
2 / 338
2.33%
2 / 338
People's
Right-wing to far-right Maxime Bernier
1.62%
0 / 338
0 / 338
4.94%
0 / 338
Independents N/A
0.41%
1 / 338
5 / 338
0.19%
0 / 338
Vacant seats N/A –
0 / 338
1 / 338
 –
0 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

Below are the 31 MPs who chose not to run in the 2021 federal election.

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Will Amos[28] Pontiac Quebec August 8, 2021
  Larry Bagnell[29] Yukon Yukon August 5, 2021
  Navdeep Bains[30] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[31] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[32] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[33] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[34] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[35] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Karen McCrimmon[36] Kanata—Carleton Ontario August 8, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[37] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[38] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Gagan Sikand[citation needed] Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario August 15, 2021
  Adam Vaughan[39] Spadina—Fort York Ontario August 8, 2021
  Kate Young[40] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[41] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[42] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[43] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[44] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[45] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[46] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[47] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  David Yurdiga[48] Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Alberta August 14, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[49] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[49] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[50][51] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[52][53] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[54] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Yasmin Ratansi[d] Don Valley East Ontario No announcement
  Ramesh Sangha[d] Brampton Centre Ontario No announcement
  Marwan Tabbara[d] Kitchener South—Hespeler Ontario No announcement
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[55] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

Incumbent not renominated

One MP was not renominated by his party:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Michel Boudrias[56] Terrebonne Quebec August 4, 2021

Timeline

See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2020–2021)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[57] Marwan Tabbara █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1] █ Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[58] Bill Morneau █ Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien █ Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[59] Michael Levitt █ Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks █ Liberal
Don Valley East November 9, 2020[60] Yasmin Ratansi █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 4] █ Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington January 20, 2021[61][62] Derek Sloan █ Conservative Expelled from caucus[a 5] █ Independent
Brampton Centre January 25, 2021[63][64] Ramesh Sangha █ Liberal Expelled from caucus[a 6] █ Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk May 11, 2021[65] Diane Finley █ Conservative Resigned █ Vacant
Fredericton June 10, 2021[66] Jenica Atwin █ Green Changed affiliation █ Liberal
  1. ^ Laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
  2. ^ To pursue leadership of OECD
  3. ^ To become a non-profit executive
  4. ^ Revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
  5. ^ Accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
  6. ^ Made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement

2019

2020

  • August 23–24, 2020: Erin O'Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party.
  • October 3, 2020: Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party.

2021

  • August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped.[67]
  • September 2, 2021: First French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
  • September 8, 2021: Second French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
  • September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
  • September 20, 2021: Election Day.

Endorsements

Campaign

Early campaign (August 2021)

 
Election signs on the street in Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

The election call occurred at the same time as the fall of Kabul, on August 15.[87] Trudeau thus received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Canadians from Afghanistan, as well as Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War.[88]

Criticism of Trudeau's decision to call an early election, particularly amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, was a major theme of his opponents' campaigns, and commentators noted a lack of support for a snap election amongst the public.[89][90][91]

The beginning of the campaign proved difficult for the Liberals, who slightly fell behind the Conservatives in the polls of voting intentions.[88] The Conservative released their platform on the second day of the campaign. The party tried to change its image with this document by putting more focus on the environment, mental health, and LGBTQ+ rights issues.[92] Meanwhile, Trudeau attacked the new Conservative leader Erin O'Toole on the topics of compulsory vaccination for federal officials, abortion and the privatization of health care.[93]

On August 25, Minister for Women and Gender Equality Maryam Monsef referred to the Taliban as "our brothers". Many on social media shared the video of this statement, and saw this as an indication that she felt sympathetic to the terrorist group. Monsef said that this was false, and further stated that she only chose those words because Muslims tend to refer to each other as "brothers".[94]

On August 27, 2021, Trudeau was forced to cancel a campaign rally set for Bolton, Ontario, over security concerns arising from groups of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau. There were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies criticizing COVID-19 vaccines and public health measures.[95]

Issues on the campaign trail

Foreign policy

Foreign policy debates focused on China and the situation in Afghanistan. For Afghanistan, discussions focused on ways to mitigate the immediate humanitarian crisis facing the country.[96][97] The group Canadian Campaign for Afghan Peace launched an open letter on August 17 calling on political parties to take position of the new situation in Afghanistan.[98]

The campaign took place during the extradition case of Meng Wanzhou, which had exacerbated tensions between Canada and China. O'Toole accused Trudeau of being "weak on China", and promised to scale up Canada's hostility towards the country if elected.[99][100]

According to Shadwick Martin, the tendency to relegate defence and foreign policy to minor appearances continued in 2021. He argues that the Liberals did not deviate from their government's existing foreign policy, while the Conservatives produced a lengthy list of reforms that one commentator described as "scattered and unfocused". The NDP's propositions were essentially unchanged from 2019.[101]

Climate change

As in 2019, Climate change was a major issue in the campaign. In March 2021, Conservative leader O'Toole announced a carbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberal carbon tax, despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax.[102] There was thus a broad consensus among all represented parties for policies to mitigate climate change, although they differed in the emissions targets, the level of the carbon tax, and the transition path to a clean economy. Only the People's Party opposed all climate change policies and vowed to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.[103]

COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic was a major campaign issue. The Liberal party sought to defend its pandemic response, while trying to tie Erin O'Toole to Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. O'Toole always sidestepped questions about his previous support for Kenney's pandemic response by saying he would work with any premier to face the pandemic regardless of their political stripes.[104] During the campaign, Alberta was experiencing its worst wave of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations.[105]

Meanwhile other parties explained what they would have done differently had they been in a similar situation. The Bloc Québecois criticized the amount of money invested in Federal aid for workers, especially the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB).[106] The NDP, on the other hand, criticized the government's "aggressive" crackdown on possibly fraudulent CERB claims, while calling for clawing back wage subsidy payments to companies who fired their workers while received this benefit.[107] The People's Party was the only party opposing vaccine passports, mask mandates and lockdowns.[108][109]

Gun control

In September 2021, O'Toole changed his position on gun control. Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau's May 2020 ban on assault weapons, he changed his stance on the issue, promising that he would not repeal the ban.[110] Political commentators and analysts described O'Toole's leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to the political centre.[111]

Implosion of the Green Party

The Green Party of Canada experienced a period of infighting beginning in June 2021, when Jenica Atwin, one of its three MPs, crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis.[112] Although there were calls for the party leader Annamie Paul to resign, she stayed on as leader through the federal election. She spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding of Toronto Centre, but failed to win the seat.[113]

Rise of the People's Party

The campaign was also marked by a rise in support for the People's Party of Canada. Before the election, Mainstreet Research gave the party more than 8 per cent of the vote,[114] and Abacus Data noted particularly high scores among Canadians under the age of 60.[115] Justin Trudeau and Yves-François Blanchet indirectly accused the Conservatives for the rise of the PPC, with Trudeau notably criticizing Erin O'Toole for not requiring his party's candidates to be vaccinated.[116]

Campaign slogans

Party English French (translation)
Liberal Party of Canada "Forward. For Everyone."[117] "Avançons ensemble." ("Let's move forward together.")
Conservative Party of Canada "Secure the Future"[118] "Agir pour l'avenir." ("Act for the Future.")
New Democratic Party "Fighting for You"[119] "Oser ensemble" ("Dare Together")
Bloc Québécois
N/A
 "Québécois" ("Quebec", in its adjective form)
Green Party of Canada "Be Daring."[120] "Faites le saut." ("Take the Leap.") and "Il faut de l'audace." ("It takes boldness.")
People's Party of Canada "Common Sense Policies that put Canadians First" "Des politiques fondées sur le gros bon sens qui priorisent des Canadiens" (as in English)

Policy platforms

Party Full platform
█ Liberal Forward. For Everyone.[121]
█ Conservative Canada's Recovery Plan[122]
█ New Democratic Ready for Better[123]
█ Bloc Québécois Québécois[124]
█ Green Platform 2021 - Be Daring[125]
█ People's [126]

Platform evaluations

The Parliamentary Budget Officer provides a service to all parties for evaluating the financial impact of any of their proposals, but does not release details until the requesting party has done so as well.[127] After the election, the PBO revealed that 130 requests had been received from all parties, of which only 72 were made public.[128][129] It did release a report outlining various baselines that were used in its costing exercises.[130]

The Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa announced that their analysis of fiscal credibility showed the Liberal party had the best grade, as shown by the following ratings:[131]

IFSD party platform rankings, 2021 (Good =  Y, Pass =  Y, Fail =  N)
Party Overall score Realistic economic and fiscal assumptions Responsible fiscal management Transparency
█ Liberal  Y  Y  Y  Y
█ Conservative  Y  Y  N  Y
█ New Democratic  Y  Y  Y  N

Leaders' debates

Main article: Canadian leaders' debates § 2021 debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[132][133] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates for every federal election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[132][133]

The English-language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that characterized Quebec's law on secularism as "discriminatory". He challenged her use of that word, and the response was seen by some as a turning point in the Bloc's campaign, which gained in the polls after the debate.[134]

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date Organizers Location Language Moderator  P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited Source
Trudeau O'Toole Blanchet Singh Paul Bernier
September 2, 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N N [135][136]
September 8, 2021 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P N [137][138]
September 9, 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P N [137][138]

On August 29, Ici Radio-Canada Télé hosted a special broadcast consisting of a series of solo interviews with each leader in turn, with questions posed by Patrice Roy, Céline Galipeau and Anne-Marie Dussault. This format was not attempted by any of the other broadcasters.[139]

Opinion polls

Main articles: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency
 
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
 
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Polls in key provinces

Voter intentions through the course of the campaign
  •  

    Alberta

  •  

    British Columbia

  •  

    Ontario

  •  

    Quebec

Results

See also: Results breakdown of the 2021 Canadian federal election and Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding

Timelines (1993-2021)

Graph of Canadian national election results by share of votes, 1993–2021; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2 per cent of the vote as well as those who campaigned intermittently.
Graph of Canadian national election results by seats won, 1993–2021; those of independent MPs are omitted.

Summary results

 
Pie chart of popular vote and seat counts

Full results

The Liberals maintained their status as largest party in the House of Commons. The results were very close to those of the 2019 federal election.[5]

 
Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissol. 2021 Change
from 2019 		% seats Votes Vote
change 		% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[e] 157 155 160[f]   3 47.34% 5,556,629   462,099 32.62%   0.50pp 32.62%
Conservative Erin O'Toole 337[g] 121 119 119   2 35.21% 5,747,410   491,817 33.74%   0.60pp 33.83%
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 78 32 32 32   9.47% 1,301,615   85,415 7.64%   0.01pp 32.11%
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338[h] 24 24 25   1 7.40% 3,036,348   132,626 17.82%   1.84pp 17.82%
Green Annamie Paul 252[i] 3 2 2   1 0.59% 396,988   792,619 2.33%   4.22pp 3.07%
People's Maxime Bernier 312 – – – 840,993   546,901 4.94%   3.32pp 5.31%
Free Michel Leclerc 59 — – – 47,252 — 0.28% — 1.49%
Maverick Jay D. Hill (interim) 29 — – – 35,178 — 0.21% — 2.30%
  Independent and No Affiliation 91 1 5 –   1 32,481   41,810 0.19%   0.22pp 0.69%
Christian Heritage Rodney L. Taylor 25 – – – 8,985   9,916 0.05%   0.05pp 0.67%
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 27 – – – 6,085   3,453 0.04%   0.01pp 0.41%
Libertarian Jacques Boudreau 13 – – – 4,765   3,602 0.03%   0.02pp 0.71%
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 26 – – – 4,700   795 0.03%   0.01pp 0.36%
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 36 – – – 4,532   408 0.03%   0.01pp 0.26%
Pour l'Indépendance du Québec (D) Michel Blondin 10 – – – 2,934   881 0.02%   0.51%
Animal Protection Liz White 10 – – – 2,546   1,862 0.01%   0.01pp 0.48%
Marijuana Blair T. Longley 9 – – – 2,031   1,111 0.01%   0.42%
Veterans Coalition (D) Randy David Joy 7 – – – 1,246   5,054 0.01%   0.02pp 0.30%
Centrist A.Q. Rana 4 — – – 648 — 0.00% — 0.40%
National Citizens Alliance (D) Stephen J. Garvey 4 – – – 476   34 0.00%   0.22%
Patriote (D) Carl Brochu 2 — – – 244 — 0.00% — 0.21%
Canada's Fourth Front[j] (D) Partap Dua 2 – – – 105   577 0.00%   0.09%
Canadian Nationalist (D) Gus Stefanis 1 – – – 52   229 0.00%   0.14%
  Vacant 1 —
Total valid votes 17,034,243   1,136,637 100.00% – –
Total rejected ballots 175,568   3,697 1.02%   0.04pp –
Total 2,010 338 338 338 – 100.00% 17,209,811   1,140,334 100.00% – 100.00%
Electorate/turnout 27,366,297   6,761 62.89%   4.14pp –
Source: House of Commons,[147] validated and judicial recount results;[148] full results spreadsheet[149] (D) indicates a party deregistered before the next election

Results by province

+Distribution of seats and popular vote %, by party by province/territory (2021)
Province Seats Vote share (%) Change (pp)
Lib CPC BQ NDP Grn Lib CPC BQ NDP Grn PPC Lib CPC BQ NDP Grn PPC Major swing
BC 15 13   13 1 27.0 33.2   29.2 5.3 4.9 +0.8 -0.8   +4.8 -7.2 +3.2  →  6.0
AB 2 30 2 – 15.5 55.3 19.1 0.9 7.4 +1.7 -13.7 +7.5 -1.9 +5.2  →  10.6
SK – 14 – – 10.6 59.0 21.1 1.1 6.6 -1.1 -5.0 +1.5 -1.5 +4.8  →  4.9
MB 4 7 3 – 27.9 39.2 23.0 1.7 7.6 +1.4 -6.0 +2.2 -3.4 +5.9  →  6.0
ON 78 37 5 1 39.3 34.9 17.8 2.2 5.5 -2.3 +1.8 +1.0 -4.0 +3.9  →  4.0
QC 35 10 32 1 – 33.6 18.6 32.1 9.8 1.5 2.7 -0.7 +2.6 -0.3 -1.0 -3.0 +1.2  →  2.8
NB 6 4   – – 42.4 33.6   11.9 5.2 6.1 +4.9 +0.8   +2.5 -12.0 +4.1  →  8.5
NS 8 3 – – 42.3 29.4 22.1 1.9 4.0 +0.9 +3.7 +3.2 -9.1 +2.8  →  6.4
PE 4 – – – 46.2 31.6 9.2 9.6 3.2 +2.5 +4.3 +1.6 -11.3 +3.2  →  7.8
NL 6 1 – – 47.7 32.5 17.4 – 2.4 +2.8 +4.6 -6.3 -3.1 +2.3  →  5.5
Territories[a 1] 2 – 1 – 35.5 20.4 30.3 2.9 – +0.4 -8.5 +4.4 -5.9 -1.2  →  9.7
Total 160 119 32 25 2 32.6 33.7 7.6 17.8 2.3 4.9 -0.5 -0.6 – +1.8 -4.2 +3.3  →  3.8
  1. ^ Independent candidates received 10.9% of the popular vote

Special ballots in the election

Special ballot voting kits issued and returned[150]
Reason Issued Returned
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from inside their riding 1,014,708 899,819
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from outside their riding 199,629 151,117
Living outside of Canada 55,700 27,253
Total 1,270,037 1,078,189

Judicial recounts

In a federal election, a judicial recount is automatically ordered in a riding where the margin of victory is less than 0.1 per cent (one one-thousandth) of the votes cast. In cases where there is a larger but still narrow margin of victory, an elector can request a judicial recount. While no validated results triggered an automatic recount in this election, judicial recounts were requested in four ridings: Brome—Missisquoi, Davenport, Châteauguay—Lacolle and Trois-Rivières. Only Châteauguay—Lacolle saw its initial result overturned: the recount had Liberal incumbent MP Brenda Shanahan proclaimed the ultimate winner over Bloc candidate Patrick O'Hara, by a margin of only 12 votes.[151] It was the first time validated results were reversed by a judicial recount since the 2008 election.[152] Recounts in Brome—Missiquoi and Davenport began on October 12; however, in both ridings the early count appeared to confirm the initial validated results, leading both challengers to concede defeat and the recount to be terminated.[153][154]

Riding Initial validated results, first and second place Recount date Judicially certified results, first and second place
Candidate Votes % Candidate Votes %
Châteauguay—Lacolle, Quebec[155]   Patrick O'Hara, BQ 18,028 36.98% October 4, 2021   Brenda Shanahan, Liberal 18,029 37.03%
  Brenda Shanahan, Liberal 17,742 36.39%   Patrick O'Hara, BQ 18,017 37.01%
Trois-Rivières, Quebec[156][157]   René Villemure, BQ 17,119 29.51% October 5, 2021   René Villemure, BQ 17,136 29.49%
  Yves Lévesque, Conservative 17,027 29.35%   Yves Lévesque, Conservative 17,053 29.35%
Brome—Missisquoi, Quebec[158]   Pascale St-Onge, Liberal 21,488 34.96% October 12, 2021 (terminated)[159] Judicial recount terminated at the request of the candidate who had requested it
  Marilou Alarie, BQ 21,291 34.64%
Davenport, Ontario[160]   Julie Dzerowicz, Liberal 19,930 42.13% October 12, 2021 (terminated)[161]
  Alejandra Bravo, NDP 19,854 41.97%

Initially, the preliminary results of Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley in the province of Manitoba were so close that the Liberal former MP Doug Eyolfson had just 24 votes fewer than the Conservative incumbent MP Marty Morantz, a margin small enough to trigger an automatic recount.[162] On September 28, Eyolfson conceded after the validated results had widened the gap to 460 votes, which is approximately 1 per cent of the total vote.[163]

10 closest ridings

Incumbents are denoted in bold and followed by (I).

Maps

Elections Canada 2021 results[1]
 
Map showing results by riding
 
Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal-area ridings

Analysis and aftermath

The remarkable similarity of the results and those of the 2019 federal election may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre results have left their mark on the electorate. A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77 per cent of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever, and 52 per cent feel that Canada's democratic system is broken.[164]

Political parties

Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results. Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC's better performance, compared to the 2019 federal election, contributed to the Conservatives under Erin O'Toole losing to the Liberals. Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi and University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings.[165][166][167] The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc; however, it has been described as not a simple generalization, as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.[168]

Important vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significant Chinese-Canadian populations, with especially large ones arising in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre.[169] This was predicted early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research, which observed that they "were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections."[169] While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China-Canada issues,[169] others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese-language media.[170][171]

Even before the mail-in ballots were counted, the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33.1 per cent to 32.3 per cent. Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Trudeau, praised the result as a "smart campaign" that prioritized "vote efficiency"; this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign.[172] Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit, commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since the Unite the Right movement and the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003.[173]

Had he not been ousted by his caucus, O'Toole would have faced a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023. A member of the national council quickly called for a petition to accelerate the process.[174] Other Conservatives urged continued support of O'Toole, and called for the party to unify around him.[175] Most party and caucus members seemed to have appeared to favour a post-mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the 2004 federal election.[176]

The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3 per cent, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May has called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it.[177] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27.[178]

Calls for electoral reform

Commentators at The Conversation noted that for a second election in a row the Liberals won the greatest number of seats but lost the popular vote to the Conservatives under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system.[179] During the campaign, Trudeau said he remains open to getting rid of Canada's FPTP if re-elected, provided there is consensus on the issue; he also expressed his preference for ranked voting over proportional representation. Trudeau had promised during the 2015 campaign that the 2015 federal election would be the last federal election to use FPTP.[180][179]

Candidates elected

Forty-nine MPs were elected for the first time, and two more (Randy Boissonnault and John Aldag) returned after having been defeated in 2019. The number of female MPs—103, up from 100 in 2019—is a record high for the House, and 22 of the first-time MPs are women.[181]

Kevin Vuong, whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed, still won the riding of Spadina—Fort York. Vuong announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in.[182] Adam Vaughan, the previous incumbent, called on Vuong to resign as his victory was "compromised".[183] In a radio interview in November, Vuong apologized to his supporters, and he later said, "Of the many, many people who have reached out since my interview, they've encouraged me to move forward. And that's what I'm going to be doing."[184]

George Chahal, elected in Calgary Skyview, was the subject of several complaints concerning the removal of campaign flyers of another candidate, substituting them with his own. In January 2022, he accepted and paid a $500 administrative monetary penalty assessed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections in the matter,[185] saying, "It's just a late night on an election campaign. Call it a dumb mistake or brain fog—it really doesn't matter why I did what I did. I think what matters is I did it. And I acknowledged it fully, openly, publicly."[186]

Retrospective allegations of Chinese interference

See also: Allegations of Chinese interference in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections

A year following the election, Conservative Party politicians including former leader Erin O'Toole blamed Chinese government interference as a factor behind the loss for the party. In a 2022 interview on the UnCommons podcast with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, O'Toole opined that media outfits linked to the Chinese Communist Party could have cost the Conservatives up to "eight or nine seats.".[187]

O'Toole's beliefs were supported by Conservative MP and foreign affairs critic Michael Chong who stated that while the party was initially hesitant to blame China for influencing the vote due to inconclusive evidence at the time, he now believed "The communist leadership in Beijing did interfere in the last federal election by spreading disinformation through proxies on Chinese-language social media platforms that contributed to the defeat of a number of Conservative MPs" citing a report by McGill University. Similar views were shared by O'Toole's director of parliamentary affairs Mitch Heimpel who claimed Canadian national security officers had contacted the Conservatives around election day to express concerns about potential foreign interference. Heimpel also cited the example of former Conservative MP Kenny Chiu who had been targeted by a misinformation campaign by the Chinese social media platform WeChat. Research into alleged electoral interference by McGill University indicated that there was no specific riding specific data to draw a full conclusion on the impact of potential interference and noted "Canadian-Chinese issues were not central to the campaign nor were they top of mind for voters" but concurred researchers had found Chinese state media had worked "with an apparent aim to convince Canadians of Chinese origin to vote against the Conservative Party."[188][189]

In February 2023, The Globe and Mail published a series of articles, reporting that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, in several classified documents, advised that China had employed disinformation campaigns and undisclosed donations to support preferred candidates during the campaign, all with the aim of ensuring that the Liberals would win again, but only with a minority.[190][191] Other illegal tactics under the Canada Elections Act were also revealed, such as directing international students to work for preferred candidates (ostensibly as volunteers, but being paid by sympathetic business owners),[190] and arranging for sympathetic donors to contribute to such campaigns, with the difference between their payments and the resulting tax credits being returned to them.[190][191] The Procedure and House Affairs Committee of the House of Commons met to discuss these reports,[191] and voted to expand their current inquiry into the 2019 election to include the 2021 election as well.[192]

See also

Notes and references

Notes

  1. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He was not seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. ^ Annamie Paul lost the by-election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election.
  3. ^ Maxime Bernier was unseated in 2019.
  4. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Liberal banner
  5. ^ Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini who withdrew, and Spadina—Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate, both after the deadline for candidate registration, and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals.[140][141]
  6. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal and is still counted as a Liberal until sworn in. Vuong has announced that he will sit as an independent when parliament convenes.[142]
  7. ^ Includes Beaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative.[143] The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline.[144]
  8. ^ Includes Toronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats.[145]
  9. ^ Includes Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Green.[146]
  10. ^ Canada's Fourth Front changed its name to Direct Democracy Party of Canada shortly after the election.

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External links

  • Elections Canada

August 22, 2023
2021, canadian, federal, election, held, september, 2021, elect, members, house, commons, 44th, canadian, parliament, writs, election, were, issued, governor, general, mary, simon, august, 2021, when, prime, minister, justin, trudeau, requested, dissolution, p. The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20 2021 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary Simon on August 15 2021 when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election 2 2021 Canadian federal election 2019 September 20 2021 2021 09 20 45th outgoing memberselected members 338 seats in the House of Commons170 seats needed for a majorityOpinion pollsTurnout62 3 1 4 7 pp First party Second party Third party Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O Toole Yves Francois BlanchetParty Liberal Conservative Bloc QuebecoisLeader since April 14 2013 August 24 2020 January 17 2019Leader s seat Papineau Durham Beloeil ChamblyLast election 157 seats 33 12 121 seats 34 34 32 seats 7 63 Seats before 155 119 32Seats won 160 a 119 32Seat change 5Popular vote 5 556 629 5 747 410 1 301 615Percentage 32 62 33 74 7 64 Swing 0 50 pp 0 60 pp 0 01 pp Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime BernierParty New Democratic Green People sLeader since October 1 2017 October 3 2020 September 14 2018Leader s seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre lost Ran in Beauce lost Last election 24 seats 15 98 3 seats 6 55 0 seats 1 62 Seats before 24 2 0Seats won 25 2 0Seat change 1Popular vote 3 036 348 396 988 840 993Percentage 17 82 2 33 4 94 Swing 1 84 pp 4 22 pp 3 32 ppResults by electoral district shaded by winners vote shareResults by electoral district holds and gainsResults by province and territoryPrime Minister before electionJustin TrudeauLiberal Prime Minister after election Justin TrudeauLiberalTrudeau won a third term as prime minister his second minority government 3 Though the Liberals were hoping to win a majority government to govern alone 4 the results were mostly unchanged from the 2019 Canadian federal election 5 The Liberals won the most seats at 160 as this fell short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons they formed a minority government with support from other parties 6 7 The Liberals set a record for the lowest vote share of a party that would go on to form government winning 32 6 per cent of the popular vote while losing the popular vote to the Conservatives as they did in 2019 8 The Conservatives led by Erin O Toole won 119 seats two fewer than their result in 2019 and continued as the Official Opposition The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves Francois Blanchet won 32 seats unchanged from the prior election The New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh won 25 seats a net increase of one seat but nonetheless fell short of expectations 9 The Green Party maintained two seats but party leader Annamie Paul was defeated for the third b time in her riding of Toronto Centre The party received 2 3 per cent of the popular vote approximately a third of what they won in 2019 10 11 12 The People s Party did not win any seats despite winning nearly 5 per cent of the popular vote and party leader Maxime Bernier was defeated for the second time c in his riding of Beauce Following the election Paul resigned as Green Party leader two months after the election 13 and O Toole was ousted as leader by his party s caucus in February 2022 over the poor showing in the election and other controversies ongoing at the time In March 2022 the NDP formed a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals 14 Contents 1 Background 1 1 Political parties and standings 1 2 Incumbents not running for re election 1 3 Incumbent not renominated 2 Timeline 2 1 2019 2 2 2020 2 3 2021 3 Endorsements 4 Campaign 4 1 Early campaign August 2021 4 2 Issues on the campaign trail 4 2 1 Foreign policy 4 2 2 Climate change 4 2 3 COVID 19 4 2 4 Gun control 4 2 5 Implosion of the Green Party 4 2 6 Rise of the People s Party 4 3 Campaign slogans 4 4 Policy platforms 4 5 Platform evaluations 4 6 Leaders debates 5 Opinion polls 5 1 Polls in key provinces 6 Results 6 1 Timelines 1993 2021 6 2 Summary results 6 3 Full results 6 4 Results by province 6 5 Special ballots in the election 6 6 Judicial recounts 6 7 10 closest ridings 6 8 Maps 7 Analysis and aftermath 7 1 Political parties 7 2 Calls for electoral reform 7 3 Candidates elected 7 4 Retrospective allegations of Chinese interference 8 See also 9 Notes and references 9 1 Notes 9 2 References 10 External linksBackground EditThe 2019 Canadian federal election resulted in the Liberals led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government The Conservatives who had gained seats and won the popular vote continued as the Official Opposition The Bloc Quebecois regained official party status and became the third party replacing the New Democrats in that role with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs twelve for official party status and no other party won any seats 15 16 In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 federal election all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the 43rd Canadian Parliament 17 18 19 Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th federal election and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4 2019 20 21 On November 6 2019 the members of the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party s next convention which was scheduled for April 2020 22 23 On December 12 Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader 24 He stayed on until his successor Erin O Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina Qu Appelle 25 26 On August 15 2021 after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20 2 The election was called on the same day as the fall of Kabul 27 Political parties and standings Edit The table below lists parties represented and seats held in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election at dissolution and after the 2021 federal election An expected by election in Haldimand Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election A polling station on election dayName Ideology Position Leader 2019 result Seats atdissolution 2021 resultVotes Seats Votes SeatsLiberal LiberalismSocial liberalism Centre to centre left Justin Trudeau 33 12 157 338 155 338 32 62 160 338Conservative ConservatismEconomic liberalismFiscal conservatism Centre right to right wing Erin O Toole 34 34 121 338 119 338 33 74 119 338Bloc Quebecois Quebec nationalismSocial democracy Centre left Yves Francois Blanchet 7 63 32 338 32 338 7 64 32 338New Democratic Social democracyDemocratic socialism Centre left to left wing Jagmeet Singh 15 98 24 338 24 338 17 82 25 338Green Green politics Annamie Paul 6 55 3 338 2 338 2 33 2 338People s Right wing populismCanadian nationalismConservatism Right wing to far right Maxime Bernier 1 62 0 338 0 338 4 94 0 338Independents N A 0 41 1 338 5 338 0 19 0 338Vacant seats N A 0 338 1 338 0 338Incumbents not running for re election Edit Below are the 31 MPs who chose not to run in the 2021 federal election Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced Will Amos 28 Pontiac Quebec August 8 2021 Larry Bagnell 29 Yukon Yukon August 5 2021 Navdeep Bains 30 Mississauga Malton Ontario January 12 2021 Lyne Bessette 31 Brome Missisquoi Quebec July 16 2021 Bob Bratina 32 Hamilton East Stoney Creek Ontario May 17 2021 Wayne Easter 33 Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14 2021 Pat Finnigan 34 Miramichi Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14 2021 Paul Lefebvre 35 Sudbury Ontario March 12 2021 Karen McCrimmon 36 Kanata Carleton Ontario August 8 2021 Catherine McKenna 37 Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27 2021 Geoff Regan 38 Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31 2021 Gagan Sikand citation needed Mississauga Streetsville Ontario August 15 2021 Adam Vaughan 39 Spadina Fort York Ontario August 8 2021 Kate Young 40 London West Ontario March 18 2021 Steven Blaney 41 Bellechasse Les Etchemins Levis Quebec July 14 2021 Peter Kent 42 Thornhill Ontario November 19 2020 Tom Lukiwski 43 Moose Jaw Lake Centre Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26 2021 Phil McColeman 44 Brantford Brant Ontario December 30 2020 Cathy McLeod 45 Kamloops Thompson Cariboo British Columbia February 4 2021 Bruce Stanton 46 Simcoe North Ontario June 25 2020 David Sweet 47 Flamborough Glanbrook Ontario January 4 2021 David Yurdiga 48 Fort McMurray Cold Lake Alberta August 14 2021 Louise Charbonneau 49 Trois Rivieres Quebec January 14 2021 Simon Marcil 49 Mirabel Quebec January 14 2021 Scott Duvall 50 51 Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5 2021 Jack Harris 52 53 St John s East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11 2021 Mumilaaq Qaqqaq 54 Nunavut Nunavut May 20 2021 Yasmin Ratansi d Don Valley East Ontario No announcement Ramesh Sangha d Brampton Centre Ontario No announcement Marwan Tabbara d Kitchener South Hespeler Ontario No announcement Jody Wilson Raybould 55 Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8 2021Incumbent not renominated Edit One MP was not renominated by his party Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced Michel Boudrias 56 Terrebonne Quebec August 4 2021Timeline EditSee also 43rd Canadian Parliament Changes in seats held 2020 2021 Seat Before ChangeDate Member Party Reason Date Member PartyKitchener South Hespeler June 6 2020 57 Marwan Tabbara Liberal Resigned from caucus a 1 IndependentToronto Centre August 17 2020 58 Bill Morneau Liberal Resigned a 2 October 26 2020 Marci Ien LiberalYork Centre September 1 2020 59 Michael Levitt Liberal Resigned a 3 October 26 2020 Ya ara Saks LiberalDon Valley East November 9 2020 60 Yasmin Ratansi Liberal Resigned from caucus a 4 IndependentHastings Lennox and Addington January 20 2021 61 62 Derek Sloan Conservative Expelled from caucus a 5 IndependentBrampton Centre January 25 2021 63 64 Ramesh Sangha Liberal Expelled from caucus a 6 IndependentHaldimand Norfolk May 11 2021 65 Diane Finley Conservative Resigned VacantFredericton June 10 2021 66 Jenica Atwin Green Changed affiliation Liberal Laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament To pursue leadership of OECD To become a non profit executive Revelation of nepotism in staff hiring Accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm Made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement 2019 Edit November 4 2019 Elizabeth May resigns as leader of the Green Party of Canada triggering a leadership election scheduled for October 2020 December 12 2019 Andrew Scheer announces his intention to step down as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada triggering a leadership election scheduled for August 2020 2020 Edit August 23 24 2020 Erin O Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party October 3 2020 Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party 2021 Edit August 15 2021 Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped 67 September 2 2021 First French language leaders debate organized by TVA Nouvelles September 8 2021 Second French language leaders debate organized by the Leaders Debate Commission September 9 2021 English language leaders debate organized by the Leaders Debate Commission September 10 13 2021 Advance polling September 14 2021 Last day to apply online for mail in voting Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office September 20 2021 Election Day Endorsements EditEndorsements received by each party Type Liberal Conservative New Democratic Bloc Quebecois Green People sMedia Toronto Star 68 National Post 69 Toronto Sun 70 Le Devoir 71 Public figures Hillary Clinton 72 Bruce Heyman 73 Andrew Leach 73 Hazel McCallion 74 Barack Obama 72 Andrew Weaver 75 Conrad Black 76 Celina Caesar Chavannes 77 Rick Hillier 78 Francois Legault 79 Brian Lilley 80 Mark Norman 81 Cindy Blackstock 82 Bernie Sanders 83 Rashida Tlaib 84 Brian Peckford 85 Unions and business associations United Steelworkers 86 Campaign EditEarly campaign August 2021 Edit Election signs on the street in Rosemont La Petite PatrieThe election call occurred at the same time as the fall of Kabul on August 15 87 Trudeau thus received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Canadians from Afghanistan as well as Afghans who supported Canada s military and diplomatic efforts during the War 88 Criticism of Trudeau s decision to call an early election particularly amidst the COVID 19 pandemic in Canada was a major theme of his opponents campaigns and commentators noted a lack of support for a snap election amongst the public 89 90 91 The beginning of the campaign proved difficult for the Liberals who slightly fell behind the Conservatives in the polls of voting intentions 88 The Conservative released their platform on the second day of the campaign The party tried to change its image with this document by putting more focus on the environment mental health and LGBTQ rights issues 92 Meanwhile Trudeau attacked the new Conservative leader Erin O Toole on the topics of compulsory vaccination for federal officials abortion and the privatization of health care 93 On August 25 Minister for Women and Gender Equality Maryam Monsef referred to the Taliban as our brothers Many on social media shared the video of this statement and saw this as an indication that she felt sympathetic to the terrorist group Monsef said that this was false and further stated that she only chose those words because Muslims tend to refer to each other as brothers 94 On August 27 2021 Trudeau was forced to cancel a campaign rally set for Bolton Ontario over security concerns arising from groups of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau There were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies criticizing COVID 19 vaccines and public health measures 95 Issues on the campaign trail Edit Foreign policy Edit Foreign policy debates focused on China and the situation in Afghanistan For Afghanistan discussions focused on ways to mitigate the immediate humanitarian crisis facing the country 96 97 The group Canadian Campaign for Afghan Peace launched an open letter on August 17 calling on political parties to take position of the new situation in Afghanistan 98 The campaign took place during the extradition case of Meng Wanzhou which had exacerbated tensions between Canada and China O Toole accused Trudeau of being weak on China and promised to scale up Canada s hostility towards the country if elected 99 100 According to Shadwick Martin the tendency to relegate defence and foreign policy to minor appearances continued in 2021 He argues that the Liberals did not deviate from their government s existing foreign policy while the Conservatives produced a lengthy list of reforms that one commentator described as scattered and unfocused The NDP s propositions were essentially unchanged from 2019 101 Climate change Edit As in 2019 Climate change was a major issue in the campaign In March 2021 Conservative leader O Toole announced a carbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberal carbon tax despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax 102 There was thus a broad consensus among all represented parties for policies to mitigate climate change although they differed in the emissions targets the level of the carbon tax and the transition path to a clean economy Only the People s Party opposed all climate change policies and vowed to withdraw from the Paris climate accord 103 COVID 19 Edit The COVID 19 pandemic was a major campaign issue The Liberal party sought to defend its pandemic response while trying to tie Erin O Toole to Alberta Premier Jason Kenney O Toole always sidestepped questions about his previous support for Kenney s pandemic response by saying he would work with any premier to face the pandemic regardless of their political stripes 104 During the campaign Alberta was experiencing its worst wave of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations 105 Meanwhile other parties explained what they would have done differently had they been in a similar situation The Bloc Quebecois criticized the amount of money invested in Federal aid for workers especially the Canada Emergency Response Benefit CERB 106 The NDP on the other hand criticized the government s aggressive crackdown on possibly fraudulent CERB claims while calling for clawing back wage subsidy payments to companies who fired their workers while received this benefit 107 The People s Party was the only party opposing vaccine passports mask mandates and lockdowns 108 109 Gun control Edit In September 2021 O Toole changed his position on gun control Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau s May 2020 ban on assault weapons he changed his stance on the issue promising that he would not repeal the ban 110 Political commentators and analysts described O Toole s leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to the political centre 111 Implosion of the Green Party Edit The Green Party of Canada experienced a period of infighting beginning in June 2021 when Jenica Atwin one of its three MPs crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the 2021 Israel Palestine crisis 112 Although there were calls for the party leader Annamie Paul to resign she stayed on as leader through the federal election She spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding of Toronto Centre but failed to win the seat 113 Rise of the People s Party Edit The campaign was also marked by a rise in support for the People s Party of Canada Before the election Mainstreet Research gave the party more than 8 per cent of the vote 114 and Abacus Data noted particularly high scores among Canadians under the age of 60 115 Justin Trudeau and Yves Francois Blanchet indirectly accused the Conservatives for the rise of the PPC with Trudeau notably criticizing Erin O Toole for not requiring his party s candidates to be vaccinated 116 Campaign slogans Edit Party English French translation Liberal Party of Canada Forward For Everyone 117 Avancons ensemble Let s move forward together Conservative Party of Canada Secure the Future 118 Agir pour l avenir Act for the Future New Democratic Party Fighting for You 119 Oser ensemble Dare Together Bloc Quebecois N A Quebecois Quebec in its adjective form Green Party of Canada Be Daring 120 Faites le saut Take the Leap and Il faut de l audace It takes boldness People s Party of Canada Common Sense Policies that put Canadians First Des politiques fondees sur le gros bon sens qui priorisent des Canadiens as in English Policy platforms Edit Party Full platform Liberal Forward For Everyone 121 Conservative Canada s Recovery Plan 122 New Democratic Ready for Better 123 Bloc Quebecois Quebecois 124 Green Platform 2021 Be Daring 125 People s 126 Platform evaluations Edit The Parliamentary Budget Officer provides a service to all parties for evaluating the financial impact of any of their proposals but does not release details until the requesting party has done so as well 127 After the election the PBO revealed that 130 requests had been received from all parties of which only 72 were made public 128 129 It did release a report outlining various baselines that were used in its costing exercises 130 The Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa announced that their analysis of fiscal credibility showed the Liberal party had the best grade as shown by the following ratings 131 IFSD party platform rankings 2021 Good Y Pass Y Fail N Party Overall score Realistic economic and fiscal assumptions Responsible fiscal management Transparency Liberal Y Y Y Y Conservative Y Y N Y New Democratic Y Y Y NLeaders debates Edit Main article Canadian leaders debates 2021 debates In June 2020 the Leaders Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates 132 133 The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates for every federal election It also called for the commission not the government to set the criteria for participation in future election debates 132 133 The English language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that characterized Quebec s law on secularism as discriminatory He challenged her use of that word and the response was seen by some as a turning point in the Bloc s campaign which gained in the polls after the debate 134 2021 Canadian general election debatesDate Organizers Location Language Moderator P Participant A Absent invited I Invited N Not invited SourceTrudeau O Toole Blanchet Singh Paul BernierSeptember 2 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N N 135 136 September 8 2021 Leaders Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P N 137 138 September 9 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P N 137 138 On August 29 Ici Radio Canada Tele hosted a special broadcast consisting of a series of solo interviews with each leader in turn with questions posed by Patrice Roy Celine Galipeau and Anne Marie Dussault This format was not attempted by any of the other broadcasters 139 Opinion polls EditMain articles Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election Trendlines are 25 poll local regressions with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election Trendlines are 30 poll local regressions with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals Polls in key provinces Edit Voter intentions through the course of the campaign Alberta British Columbia Ontario QuebecResults EditSee also Results breakdown of the 2021 Canadian federal election and Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding Timelines 1993 2021 Edit Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues Graph of Canadian national election results by share of votes 1993 2021 omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2 per cent of the vote as well as those who campaigned intermittently Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues Graph of Canadian national election results by seats won 1993 2021 those of independent MPs are omitted Summary results Edit Pie chart of popular vote and seat counts Full results Edit The Liberals maintained their status as largest party in the House of Commons The results were very close to those of the 2019 federal election 5 Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote2019 Dissol 2021 Change from 2019 seats Votes Votechange pp change whererunningLiberal Justin Trudeau 338 e 157 155 160 f 3 47 34 5 556 629 462 099 32 62 0 50pp 32 62 Conservative Erin O Toole 337 g 121 119 119 2 35 21 5 747 410 491 817 33 74 0 60pp 33 83 Bloc Quebecois Yves Francois Blanchet 78 32 32 32 9 47 1 301 615 85 415 7 64 0 01pp 32 11 New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338 h 24 24 25 1 7 40 3 036 348 132 626 17 82 1 84pp 17 82 Green Annamie Paul 252 i 3 2 2 1 0 59 396 988 792 619 2 33 4 22pp 3 07 People s Maxime Bernier 312 840 993 546 901 4 94 3 32pp 5 31 Free Michel Leclerc 59 47 252 0 28 1 49 Maverick Jay D Hill interim 29 35 178 0 21 2 30 Independent and No Affiliation 91 1 5 1 32 481 41 810 0 19 0 22pp 0 69 Christian Heritage Rodney L Taylor 25 8 985 9 916 0 05 0 05pp 0 67 Rhinoceros Sebastien CoRhino 27 6 085 3 453 0 04 0 01pp 0 41 Libertarian Jacques Boudreau 13 4 765 3 602 0 03 0 02pp 0 71 Communist Elizabeth Rowley 26 4 700 795 0 03 0 01pp 0 36 Marxist Leninist Anna Di Carlo 36 4 532 408 0 03 0 01pp 0 26 Pour l Independance du Quebec D Michel Blondin 10 2 934 881 0 02 0 51 Animal Protection Liz White 10 2 546 1 862 0 01 0 01pp 0 48 Marijuana Blair T Longley 9 2 031 1 111 0 01 0 42 Veterans Coalition D Randy David Joy 7 1 246 5 054 0 01 0 02pp 0 30 Centrist A Q Rana 4 648 0 00 0 40 National Citizens Alliance D Stephen J Garvey 4 476 34 0 00 0 22 Patriote D Carl Brochu 2 244 0 00 0 21 Canada s Fourth Front j D Partap Dua 2 105 577 0 00 0 09 Canadian Nationalist D Gus Stefanis 1 52 229 0 00 0 14 Vacant 1 Total valid votes 17 034 243 1 136 637 100 00 Total rejected ballots 175 568 3 697 1 02 0 04pp Total 2 010 338 338 338 100 00 17 209 811 1 140 334 100 00 100 00 Electorate turnout 27 366 297 6 761 62 89 4 14pp Source House of Commons 147 validated and judicial recount results 148 full results spreadsheet 149 D indicates a party deregistered before the next electionResults by province Edit Distribution of seats and popular vote by party by province territory 2021 Province Seats Vote share Change pp Lib CPC BQ NDP Grn Lib CPC BQ NDP Grn PPC Lib CPC BQ NDP Grn PPC Major swingBC 15 13 13 1 27 0 33 2 29 2 5 3 4 9 0 8 0 8 4 8 7 2 3 2 6 0AB 2 30 2 15 5 55 3 19 1 0 9 7 4 1 7 13 7 7 5 1 9 5 2 10 6SK 14 10 6 59 0 21 1 1 1 6 6 1 1 5 0 1 5 1 5 4 8 4 9MB 4 7 3 27 9 39 2 23 0 1 7 7 6 1 4 6 0 2 2 3 4 5 9 6 0ON 78 37 5 1 39 3 34 9 17 8 2 2 5 5 2 3 1 8 1 0 4 0 3 9 4 0QC 35 10 32 1 33 6 18 6 32 1 9 8 1 5 2 7 0 7 2 6 0 3 1 0 3 0 1 2 2 8NB 6 4 42 4 33 6 11 9 5 2 6 1 4 9 0 8 2 5 12 0 4 1 8 5NS 8 3 42 3 29 4 22 1 1 9 4 0 0 9 3 7 3 2 9 1 2 8 6 4PE 4 46 2 31 6 9 2 9 6 3 2 2 5 4 3 1 6 11 3 3 2 7 8NL 6 1 47 7 32 5 17 4 2 4 2 8 4 6 6 3 3 1 2 3 5 5Territories a 1 2 1 35 5 20 4 30 3 2 9 0 4 8 5 4 4 5 9 1 2 9 7Total 160 119 32 25 2 32 6 33 7 7 6 17 8 2 3 4 9 0 5 0 6 1 8 4 2 3 3 3 8 Independent candidates received 10 9 of the popular vote Special ballots in the election Edit Special ballot voting kits issued and returned 150 Reason Issued ReturnedVoting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from inside their riding 1 014 708 899 819Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from outside their riding 199 629 151 117Living outside of Canada 55 700 27 253Total 1 270 037 1 078 189Judicial recounts Edit In a federal election a judicial recount is automatically ordered in a riding where the margin of victory is less than 0 1 per cent one one thousandth of the votes cast In cases where there is a larger but still narrow margin of victory an elector can request a judicial recount While no validated results triggered an automatic recount in this election judicial recounts were requested in four ridings Brome Missisquoi Davenport Chateauguay Lacolle and Trois Rivieres Only Chateauguay Lacolle saw its initial result overturned the recount had Liberal incumbent MP Brenda Shanahan proclaimed the ultimate winner over Bloc candidate Patrick O Hara by a margin of only 12 votes 151 It was the first time validated results were reversed by a judicial recount since the 2008 election 152 Recounts in Brome Missiquoi and Davenport began on October 12 however in both ridings the early count appeared to confirm the initial validated results leading both challengers to concede defeat and the recount to be terminated 153 154 Riding Initial validated results first and second place Recount date Judicially certified results first and second placeCandidate Votes Candidate Votes Chateauguay Lacolle Quebec 155 Patrick O Hara BQ 18 028 36 98 October 4 2021 Brenda Shanahan Liberal 18 029 37 03 Brenda Shanahan Liberal 17 742 36 39 Patrick O Hara BQ 18 017 37 01 Trois Rivieres Quebec 156 157 Rene Villemure BQ 17 119 29 51 October 5 2021 Rene Villemure BQ 17 136 29 49 Yves Levesque Conservative 17 027 29 35 Yves Levesque Conservative 17 053 29 35 Brome Missisquoi Quebec 158 Pascale St Onge Liberal 21 488 34 96 October 12 2021 terminated 159 Judicial recount terminated at the request of the candidate who had requested it Marilou Alarie BQ 21 291 34 64 Davenport Ontario 160 Julie Dzerowicz Liberal 19 930 42 13 October 12 2021 terminated 161 Alejandra Bravo NDP 19 854 41 97 Initially the preliminary results of Charleswood St James Assiniboia Headingley in the province of Manitoba were so close that the Liberal former MP Doug Eyolfson had just 24 votes fewer than the Conservative incumbent MP Marty Morantz a margin small enough to trigger an automatic recount 162 On September 28 Eyolfson conceded after the validated results had widened the gap to 460 votes which is approximately 1 per cent of the total vote 163 10 closest ridings Edit Incumbents are denoted in bold and followed by I Riding Winner Runner up Vote differenceChateauguay Lacolle Brenda Shanahan I Patrick O Hara 12Davenport Julie Dzerowicz I Alejandra Bravo 76Trois Rivieres Rene Villemure Yves Levesque 83Brome Missisquoi Pascale St Onge Marilou Alarie 197Sault Ste Marie Terry Sheehan I Sonny Spina 247Coast of Bays Central Notre Dame Clifford Small Scott Simms I 281Vancouver Granville Taleeb Noormohamed Anjali Appadurai 431Charleswood St James Assiniboia Headingley Marty Morantz I Doug Eyolfson 460Fredericton Jenica Atwin I Andrea Johnson 502Kitchener Conestoga Tim Louis I Carlene Hawley 577Maps Edit Elections Canada 2021 results 1 Map showing results by riding Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal area ridingsAnalysis and aftermath EditThe remarkable similarity of the results and those of the 2019 federal election may have reinforced voters sentiments that the early election was unnecessary and its meagre results have left their mark on the electorate A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77 per cent of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever and 52 per cent feel that Canada s democratic system is broken 164 Political parties Edit Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC s better performance compared to the 2019 federal election contributed to the Conservatives under Erin O Toole losing to the Liberals Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi and University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings 165 166 167 The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings where the Conservative candidate was in second place 12 in Ontario five in BC two in Alberta one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland Of those seats 14 went to the Liberals six to the NDP and one to the Bloc however it has been described as not a simple generalization as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non Conservative voters 168 Important vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significant Chinese Canadian populations with especially large ones arising in Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre 169 This was predicted early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research which observed that they were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections 169 While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China Canada issues 169 others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese language media 170 171 Even before the mail in ballots were counted the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33 1 per cent to 32 3 per cent Gerald Butts former principal secretary to Trudeau praised the result as a smart campaign that prioritized vote efficiency this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign 172 Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since the Unite the Right movement and the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003 173 Had he not been ousted by his caucus O Toole would have faced a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023 A member of the national council quickly called for a petition to accelerate the process 174 Other Conservatives urged continued support of O Toole and called for the party to unify around him 175 Most party and caucus members seemed to have appeared to favour a post mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the 2004 federal election 176 The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2 3 per cent its lowest level since the 2000 federal election Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline and Elizabeth May has called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it 177 Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27 178 Calls for electoral reform Edit Commentators at The Conversation noted that for a second election in a row the Liberals won the greatest number of seats but lost the popular vote to the Conservatives under the first past the post FPTP voting system 179 During the campaign Trudeau said he remains open to getting rid of Canada s FPTP if re elected provided there is consensus on the issue he also expressed his preference for ranked voting over proportional representation Trudeau had promised during the 2015 campaign that the 2015 federal election would be the last federal election to use FPTP 180 179 Candidates elected Edit Forty nine MPs were elected for the first time and two more Randy Boissonnault and John Aldag returned after having been defeated in 2019 The number of female MPs 103 up from 100 in 2019 is a record high for the House and 22 of the first time MPs are women 181 Kevin Vuong whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed still won the riding of Spadina Fort York Vuong announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in 182 Adam Vaughan the previous incumbent called on Vuong to resign as his victory was compromised 183 In a radio interview in November Vuong apologized to his supporters and he later said Of the many many people who have reached out since my interview they ve encouraged me to move forward And that s what I m going to be doing 184 George Chahal elected in Calgary Skyview was the subject of several complaints concerning the removal of campaign flyers of another candidate substituting them with his own In January 2022 he accepted and paid a 500 administrative monetary penalty assessed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections in the matter 185 saying It s just a late night on an election campaign Call it a dumb mistake or brain fog it really doesn t matter why I did what I did I think what matters is I did it And I acknowledged it fully openly publicly 186 Retrospective allegations of Chinese interference Edit See also Allegations of Chinese interference in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections A year following the election Conservative Party politicians including former leader Erin O Toole blamed Chinese government interference as a factor behind the loss for the party In a 2022 interview on the UnCommons podcast with Nathaniel Erskine Smith O Toole opined that media outfits linked to the Chinese Communist Party could have cost the Conservatives up to eight or nine seats 187 O Toole s beliefs were supported by Conservative MP and foreign affairs critic Michael Chong who stated that while the party was initially hesitant to blame China for influencing the vote due to inconclusive evidence at the time he now believed The communist leadership in Beijing did interfere in the last federal election by spreading disinformation through proxies on Chinese language social media platforms that contributed to the defeat of a number of Conservative MPs citing a report by McGill University Similar views were shared by O Toole s director of parliamentary affairs Mitch Heimpel who claimed Canadian national security officers had contacted the Conservatives around election day to express concerns about potential foreign interference Heimpel also cited the example of former Conservative MP Kenny Chiu who had been targeted by a misinformation campaign by the Chinese social media platform WeChat Research into alleged electoral interference by McGill University indicated that there was no specific riding specific data to draw a full conclusion on the impact of potential interference and noted Canadian Chinese issues were not central to the campaign nor were they top of mind for voters but concurred researchers had found Chinese state media had worked with an apparent aim to convince Canadians of Chinese origin to vote against the Conservative Party 188 189 In February 2023 The Globe and Mail published a series of articles reporting that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service in several classified documents advised that China had employed disinformation campaigns and undisclosed donations to support preferred candidates during the campaign all with the aim of ensuring that the Liberals would win again but only with a minority 190 191 Other illegal tactics under the Canada Elections Act were also revealed such as directing international students to work for preferred candidates ostensibly as volunteers but being paid by sympathetic business owners 190 and arranging for sympathetic donors to contribute to such campaigns with the difference between their payments and the resulting tax credits being returned to them 190 191 The Procedure and House Affairs Committee of the House of Commons met to discuss these reports 191 and voted to expand their current inquiry into the 2019 election to include the 2021 election as well 192 See also EditList of Canadian federal general electionsNotes and references EditNotes Edit Includes Kevin Vuong who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign He was not seated as a member of the Liberal caucus Annamie Paul lost the by election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election Maxime Bernier was unseated in 2019 a b c Previously elected under the Liberal banner Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini who withdrew and Spadina Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate both after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals 140 141 Includes Kevin Vuong who was on the ballot as a Liberal and is still counted as a Liberal until sworn in Vuong has announced that he will sit as an independent when parliament convenes 142 Includes Beaches East York candidate Lisa Robinson who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative 143 The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline 144 Includes Toronto St Paul s candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats 145 Includes Renfrew Nipissing Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere who was removed as a candidate after 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