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Wikipedia

Progress in artificial intelligence

January 28, 2023

See also: History of artificial intelligence and Timeline of artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence applications have been used in a wide range of fields including medical diagnosis, stock trading, robot control, law, scientific discovery, video games, and toys. However, many AI applications are not perceived as AI: "A lot of cutting edge AI has filtered into general applications, often without being called AI because once something becomes useful enough and common enough it's not labeled AI anymore."[1][2] "Many thousands of AI applications are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of every industry."[3] In the late 1990s and early 21st century, AI technology became widely used as elements of larger systems,[3][4] but the field was rarely credited for these successes at the time.

Progress in machine classification of images
The error rate of AI by year. Red line - the error rate of a trained human on a particular task.

Kaplan and Haenlein structure artificial intelligence along three evolutionary stages: 1) artificial narrow intelligence – applying AI only to specific tasks; 2) artificial general intelligence – applying AI to several areas and able to autonomously solve problems they were never even designed for; and 3) artificial super intelligence – applying AI to any area capable of scientific creativity, social skills, and general wisdom.[2]

To allow comparison with human performance, artificial intelligence can be evaluated on constrained and well-defined problems. Such tests have been termed subject matter expert Turing tests. Also, smaller problems provide more achievable goals and there are an ever-increasing number of positive results.

Current performance

Game Champion year[5] Legal states (log10)[6] Game tree complexity (log10)[6] Game of perfect information? Ref
Draughts (checkers) 1994 21 31 Perfect [7]
Othello (reversi) 1997 28 58 Perfect [8]
Chess 1997 46 123 Perfect
Scrabble 2006 [9]
Shogi 2017 71 226 Perfect [10]
Go 2016 172 360 Perfect
2p no-limit hold 'em 2017 Imperfect [11]
StarCraft - 270+ Imperfect [12]
StarCraft II 2019 Imperfect [13]

There are many useful abilities that can be described as showing some form of intelligence. This gives better insight into the comparative success of artificial intelligence in different areas.

AI, like electricity or the steam engine, is a general purpose technology. There is no consensus on how to characterize which tasks AI tends to excel at.[14] Some versions of Moravec's paradox observe that humans are more likely to outperform machines in areas such as physical dexterity that have been the direct target of natural selection.[15] While projects such as AlphaZero have succeeded in generating their own knowledge from scratch, many other machine learning projects require large training datasets.[16][17] Researcher Andrew Ng has suggested, as a "highly imperfect rule of thumb", that "almost anything a typical human can do with less than one second of mental thought, we can probably now or in the near future automate using AI."[18]

Games provide a high-profile benchmark for assessing rates of progress; many games have a large professional player base and a well-established competitive rating system. AlphaGo brought the era of classical board-game benchmarks to a close when Artificial Intelligence proved their competitive edge over humans in 2016. Deep Mind’s AlphaGo AI software program defeated the world’s best professional Go Player Lee Sedol.[19] Games of imperfect knowledge provide new challenges to AI in the area of game theory; the most prominent milestone in this area was brought to a close by Libratus' poker victory in 2017.[20][21] E-sports continue to provide additional benchmarks; Facebook AI, Deepmind, and others have engaged with the popular StarCraft franchise of videogames.[22][23]

Broad classes of outcome for an AI test may be given as:

  • optimal: it is not possible to perform better (note: some of these entries were solved by humans)
  • super-human: performs better than all humans
  • high-human: performs better than most humans
  • par-human: performs similarly to most humans
  • sub-human: performs worse than most humans

Optimal

See also: Solved game

Super-human

High-human

Par-human

Sub-human

Proposed tests of artificial intelligence

In his famous Turing test, Alan Turing picked language, the defining feature of human beings, for its basis.[65] The Turing test is now considered too exploitable to be a meaningful benchmark.[66]

The Feigenbaum test, proposed by the inventor of expert systems, tests a machine's knowledge and expertise about a specific subject.[67] A paper by Jim Gray of Microsoft in 2003 suggested extending the Turing test to speech understanding, speaking and recognizing objects and behavior.[68]

Proposed "universal intelligence" tests aim to compare how well machines, humans, and even non-human animals perform on problem sets that are generic as possible. At an extreme, the test suite can contain every possible problem, weighted by Kolmogorov complexity; however, these problem sets tend to be dominated by impoverished pattern-matching exercises where a tuned AI can easily exceed human performance levels.[69][70][71][72]

Competitions

Main article: Competitions and prizes in artificial intelligence

Many competitions and prizes, such as the Imagenet Challenge, promote research in artificial intelligence. The most common areas of competition include general machine intelligence, conversational behavior, data-mining, robotic cars, and robot soccer as well as conventional games.[73]

Past and current predictions

An expert poll around 2016, conducted by Katja Grace of the Future of Humanity Institute and associates, gave median estimates of 3 years for championship Angry Birds, 4 years for the World Series of Poker, and 6 years for StarCraft. On more subjective tasks, the poll gave 6 years for folding laundry as well as an average human worker, 7–10 years for expertly answering 'easily Googleable' questions, 8 years for average speech transcription, 9 years for average telephone banking, and 11 years for expert songwriting, but over 30 years for writing a New York Times bestseller or winning the Putnam math competition.[74][75][76]

Chess

 
Deep Blue at the Computer History Museum

An AI defeated a grandmaster in a regulation tournament game for the first time in 1988; rebranded as Deep Blue, it beat the reigning human world chess champion in 1997 (see Deep Blue versus Garry Kasparov).[77]

Estimates when computers would exceed humans at Chess
Year prediction made Predicted year Number of Years Predictor Contemporaneous source
1957 1967 or sooner 10 or less Herbert A. Simon, economist[78]
1990 2000 or sooner 10 or less Ray Kurzweil, futurist Age of Intelligent Machines[79]

Go

AlphaGo defeated a European Go champion in October 2015, and Lee Sedol in March 2016, one of the world's top players (see AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol). According to Scientific American and other sources, most observers had expected superhuman Computer Go performance to be at least a decade away.[80][81][82]

Estimates when computers would exceed humans at Go
Year prediction made Predicted year Number of years Predictor Affiliation Contemporaneous source
1997 2100 or later 103 or more Piet Hutt, physicist and Go fan Institute for Advanced Study New York Times[83][84]
2007 2017 or sooner 10 or less Feng-Hsiung Hsu, Deep Blue lead Microsoft Research Asia IEEE Spectrum[85][86]
2014 2024 10 Rémi Coulom, Computer Go programmer CrazyStone Wired[86][87]

Human-level artificial general intelligence (AGI)

AI pioneer and economist Herbert A. Simon inaccurately predicted in 1965: "Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do". Similarly, in 1970 Marvin Minsky wrote that "Within a generation... the problem of creating artificial intelligence will substantially be solved."[88]

Four polls conducted in 2012 and 2013 suggested that the median estimate among experts for when AGI would arrive was 2040 to 2050, depending on the poll.[89][90]

The Grace poll around 2016 found results varied depending on how the question was framed. Respondents asked to estimate "when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers" gave an aggregated median answer of 45 years and a 10% chance of it occurring within 9 years. Other respondents asked to estimate "when all occupations are fully automatable. That is, when for any occupation, machines could be built to carry out the task better and more cheaply than human workers" estimated a median of 122 years and a 10% probability of 20 years. The median response for when "AI researcher" could be fully automated was around 90 years. No link was found between seniority and optimism, but Asian researchers were much more optimistic than North American researchers on average; Asians predicted 30 years on average for "accomplish every task", compared with the 74 years predicted by North Americans.[74][75][76]

Estimates of when AGI will arrive
Year prediction made Predicted year Number of years Predictor Contemporaneous source
1965 1985 or sooner 20 or less Herbert A. Simon The shape of automation for men and management[88][91]
1993 2023 or sooner 30 or less Vernor Vinge, science fiction writer "The Coming Technological Singularity"[92]
1995 2040 or sooner 45 or less Hans Moravec, robotics researcher Wired[93]
2008 Never / Distant future[note 1] Gordon E. Moore, inventor of Moore's Law IEEE Spectrum[94]
2017 2029 12 Ray Kurzweil Interview[95]

See also

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Notes

  1. ^ IEEE Spectrum attributes to Moore both "Never" and "I don't believe this kind of thing is likely to happen, at least for a long time"

External links

  • MIRI database of predictions about AGI

January 28, 2023
progress, artificial, intelligence, also, history, artificial, intelligence, timeline, artificial, intelligence, artificial, intelligence, applications, have, been, used, wide, range, fields, including, medical, diagnosis, stock, trading, robot, control, scien. See also History of artificial intelligence and Timeline of artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence applications have been used in a wide range of fields including medical diagnosis stock trading robot control law scientific discovery video games and toys However many AI applications are not perceived as AI A lot of cutting edge AI has filtered into general applications often without being called AI because once something becomes useful enough and common enough it s not labeled AI anymore 1 2 Many thousands of AI applications are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of every industry 3 In the late 1990s and early 21st century AI technology became widely used as elements of larger systems 3 4 but the field was rarely credited for these successes at the time Progress in machine classification of images The error rate of AI by year Red line the error rate of a trained human on a particular task Kaplan and Haenlein structure artificial intelligence along three evolutionary stages 1 artificial narrow intelligence applying AI only to specific tasks 2 artificial general intelligence applying AI to several areas and able to autonomously solve problems they were never even designed for and 3 artificial super intelligence applying AI to any area capable of scientific creativity social skills and general wisdom 2 To allow comparison with human performance artificial intelligence can be evaluated on constrained and well defined problems Such tests have been termed subject matter expert Turing tests Also smaller problems provide more achievable goals and there are an ever increasing number of positive results Contents 1 Current performance 1 1 Optimal 1 2 Super human 1 3 High human 1 4 Par human 1 5 Sub human 2 Proposed tests of artificial intelligence 3 Competitions 4 Past and current predictions 4 1 Chess 4 2 Go 4 3 Human level artificial general intelligence AGI 5 See also 6 References 7 Notes 8 External linksCurrent performance EditGame Champion year 5 Legal states log10 6 Game tree complexity log10 6 Game of perfect information RefDraughts checkers 1994 21 31 Perfect 7 Othello reversi 1997 28 58 Perfect 8 Chess 1997 46 123 PerfectScrabble 2006 9 Shogi 2017 71 226 Perfect 10 Go 2016 172 360 Perfect2p no limit hold em 2017 Imperfect 11 StarCraft 270 Imperfect 12 StarCraft II 2019 Imperfect 13 There are many useful abilities that can be described as showing some form of intelligence This gives better insight into the comparative success of artificial intelligence in different areas AI like electricity or the steam engine is a general purpose technology There is no consensus on how to characterize which tasks AI tends to excel at 14 Some versions of Moravec s paradox observe that humans are more likely to outperform machines in areas such as physical dexterity that have been the direct target of natural selection 15 While projects such as AlphaZero have succeeded in generating their own knowledge from scratch many other machine learning projects require large training datasets 16 17 Researcher Andrew Ng has suggested as a highly imperfect rule of thumb that almost anything a typical human can do with less than one second of mental thought we can probably now or in the near future automate using AI 18 Games provide a high profile benchmark for assessing rates of progress many games have a large professional player base and a well established competitive rating system AlphaGo brought the era of classical board game benchmarks to a close when Artificial Intelligence proved their competitive edge over humans in 2016 Deep Mind s AlphaGo AI software program defeated the world s best professional Go Player Lee Sedol 19 Games of imperfect knowledge provide new challenges to AI in the area of game theory the most prominent milestone in this area was brought to a close by Libratus poker victory in 2017 20 21 E sports continue to provide additional benchmarks Facebook AI Deepmind and others have engaged with the popular StarCraft franchise of videogames 22 23 Broad classes of outcome for an AI test may be given as optimal it is not possible to perform better note some of these entries were solved by humans super human performs better than all humans high human performs better than most humans par human performs similarly to most humans sub human performs worse than most humansOptimal Edit See also Solved game Tic tac toe Connect Four 1988 Checkers aka 8x8 draughts Weakly solved 2007 24 Rubik s Cube Mostly solved 2010 25 Heads up limit hold em poker Statistically optimal in the sense that a human lifetime of play is not sufficient to establish with statistical significance that the strategy is not an exact solution 2015 26 Super human Edit Othello aka reversi c 1997 8 Scrabble 27 28 2006 9 Backgammon c 1995 2002 29 30 Chess Supercomputer c 1997 Personal computer c 2006 31 Mobile phone c 2009 32 Computer defeats human computer c 2017 33 Jeopardy Question answering although the machine did not use speech recognition 2011 34 35 Arimaa 2015 36 37 Shogi c 2017 10 Go 2017 38 Heads up no limit hold em poker 2017 11 Six player no limit hold em poker 2019 39 Gran Turismo Sport 2022 40 High human Edit Crosswords c 2012 41 42 Freeciv 2016 43 Dota 2 2018 44 Bridge card playing According to a 2009 review the best programs are attaining expert status as bridge card players excluding bidding 45 StarCraft II 2019 46 Mahjong 2019 47 Stratego 2022 48 No Press Diplomacy 2022 49 Hanabi 2022 50 Natural language processing citation needed Par human Edit Optical character recognition for ISO 1073 1 1976 and similar special characters citation needed Classification of images 51 Handwriting recognition 52 Facial recognition 53 Visual question answering 54 SQuAD 2 0 English reading comprehension benchmark 2019 55 SuperGLUE English language understanding benchmark 2020 55 Some school science exams 2019 56 Some tasks based on Raven s Progressive Matrices 57 Many Atari 2600 games 2015 58 Sub human Edit This section needs additional citations for verification Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources Unsourced material may be challenged and removed December 2022 Learn how and when to remove this template message Optical character recognition for printed text nearing par human for Latin script typewritten text Object recognition clarification needed Various robotics tasks that may require advances in robot hardware as well as AI including Stable bipedal locomotion Bipedal robots can walk but are less stable than human walkers as of 2017 59 Humanoid soccer 60 Speech recognition nearly equal to human performance 2017 61 Explainability Current medical systems can diagnose certain medical conditions well but cannot explain to users why they made the diagnosis 62 Many tests of fluid intelligence 2020 57 Bongard visual cognition problems such as the Bongard LOGO benchmark 2020 57 63 Visual Commonsense Reasoning VCR benchmark as of 2020 55 Stock market prediction Financial data collection and processing using Machine Learning algorithms Angry Birds video game as of 2020 64 Various tasks that are difficult to solve without contextual knowledge including Translation Word sense disambiguationProposed tests of artificial intelligence EditThis section needs expansion You can help by adding to it October 2021 In his famous Turing test Alan Turing picked language the defining feature of human beings for its basis 65 The Turing test is now considered too exploitable to be a meaningful benchmark 66 The Feigenbaum test proposed by the inventor of expert systems tests a machine s knowledge and expertise about a specific subject 67 A paper by Jim Gray of Microsoft in 2003 suggested extending the Turing test to speech understanding speaking and recognizing objects and behavior 68 Proposed universal intelligence tests aim to compare how well machines humans and even non human animals perform on problem sets that are generic as possible At an extreme the test suite can contain every possible problem weighted by Kolmogorov complexity however these problem sets tend to be dominated by impoverished pattern matching exercises where a tuned AI can easily exceed human performance levels 69 70 71 72 Competitions EditMain article Competitions and prizes in artificial intelligence This section should include only a brief summary of another article See Wikipedia Summary style for information on how to properly incorporate it into this article s main text October 2021 Many competitions and prizes such as the Imagenet Challenge promote research in artificial intelligence The most common areas of competition include general machine intelligence conversational behavior data mining robotic cars and robot soccer as well as conventional games 73 Past and current predictions EditAn expert poll around 2016 conducted by Katja Grace of the Future of Humanity Institute and associates gave median estimates of 3 years for championship Angry Birds 4 years for the World Series of Poker and 6 years for StarCraft On more subjective tasks the poll gave 6 years for folding laundry as well as an average human worker 7 10 years for expertly answering easily Googleable questions 8 years for average speech transcription 9 years for average telephone banking and 11 years for expert songwriting but over 30 years for writing a New York Times bestseller or winning the Putnam math competition 74 75 76 Chess Edit Deep Blue at the Computer History Museum An AI defeated a grandmaster in a regulation tournament game for the first time in 1988 rebranded as Deep Blue it beat the reigning human world chess champion in 1997 see Deep Blue versus Garry Kasparov 77 Estimates when computers would exceed humans at Chess Year prediction made Predicted year Number of Years Predictor Contemporaneous source1957 1967 or sooner 10 or less Herbert A Simon economist 78 1990 2000 or sooner 10 or less Ray Kurzweil futurist Age of Intelligent Machines 79 Go Edit AlphaGo defeated a European Go champion in October 2015 and Lee Sedol in March 2016 one of the world s top players see AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol According to Scientific American and other sources most observers had expected superhuman Computer Go performance to be at least a decade away 80 81 82 Estimates when computers would exceed humans at Go Year prediction made Predicted year Number of years Predictor Affiliation Contemporaneous source1997 2100 or later 103 or more Piet Hutt physicist and Go fan Institute for Advanced Study New York Times 83 84 2007 2017 or sooner 10 or less Feng Hsiung Hsu Deep Blue lead Microsoft Research Asia IEEE Spectrum 85 86 2014 2024 10 Remi Coulom Computer Go programmer CrazyStone Wired 86 87 Human level artificial general intelligence AGI Edit AI pioneer and economist Herbert A Simon inaccurately predicted in 1965 Machines will be capable within twenty years of doing any work a man can do Similarly in 1970 Marvin Minsky wrote that Within a generation the problem of creating artificial intelligence will substantially be solved 88 Four polls conducted in 2012 and 2013 suggested that the median estimate among experts for when AGI would arrive was 2040 to 2050 depending on the poll 89 90 The Grace poll around 2016 found results varied depending on how the question was framed Respondents asked to estimate when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers gave an aggregated median answer of 45 years and a 10 chance of it occurring within 9 years Other respondents asked to estimate when all occupations are fully automatable That is when for any occupation machines could be built to carry out the task better and more cheaply than human workers estimated a median of 122 years and a 10 probability of 20 years The median response for when AI researcher could be fully automated was around 90 years No link was found between seniority and optimism but Asian researchers were much more optimistic than North American researchers on average Asians predicted 30 years on average for accomplish every task compared with the 74 years predicted by North Americans 74 75 76 Estimates of when AGI will arrive Year prediction made Predicted year Number of years Predictor Contemporaneous source1965 1985 or sooner 20 or less Herbert A Simon The shape of automation for men and management 88 91 1993 2023 or sooner 30 or less Vernor Vinge science fiction writer The Coming Technological Singularity 92 1995 2040 or sooner 45 or less Hans Moravec robotics researcher Wired 93 2008 Never Distant future note 1 Gordon E Moore inventor of Moore s Law IEEE Spectrum 94 2017 2029 12 Ray Kurzweil Interview 95 See also EditApplications of artificial intelligence List of artificial intelligence projects List of emerging technologiesReferences Edit AI set to exceed human brain power CNN com July 26 2006 a b Kaplan Andreas Haenlein Michael 2019 Siri Siri in my hand Who s the fairest in the land On the interpretations illustrations and implications of artificial intelligence Business Horizons 62 15 25 doi 10 1016 j bushor 2018 08 004 S2CID 158433736 a b Kurtzweil 2005 p 264harvnb error no target CITEREFKurtzweil2005 help National Research Council 1999 Developments in Artificial Intelligence Funding a Revolution Government Support for Computing Research National Academy Press ISBN 978 0 309 06278 7 OCLC 246584055 under Artificial Intelligence in the 90s Approximate year AI started beating top human experts a b van den Herik H Jaap Uiterwijk Jos W H M van Rijswijck Jack January 2002 Games solved Now and in the future Artificial Intelligence 134 1 2 277 311 doi 10 1016 S0004 3702 01 00152 7 Madrigal Alexis C 2017 How Checkers Was Solved The Atlantic Retrieved 6 May 2018 a b www othello club de berg earthlingz de Retrieved 2018 07 15 a b Webley Kayla 15 February 2011 Top 10 Man vs Machine Moments Time Retrieved 28 December 2017 a b Shogi prodigy breathes new life into the game The Japan Times The Japan Times Retrieved 2018 07 15 a b Brown Noam Sandholm Tuomas 2017 Superhuman AI for heads up no limit poker Libratus beats top professionals Science 359 6374 418 424 Bibcode 2018Sci 359 418B doi 10 1126 science aao1733 PMID 29249696 Facebook Quietly Enters StarCraft War for AI Bots and Loses WIRED 2017 Retrieved 6 May 2018 Sample Ian 30 October 2019 AI becomes grandmaster in fiendishly complex StarCraft II The Guardian Retrieved 28 February 2020 Brynjolfsson Erik Mitchell Tom 22 December 2017 What can machine learning do Workforce implications Science 358 6370 1530 1534 Bibcode 2017Sci 358 1530B doi 10 1126 science aap8062 Retrieved 7 May 2018 IKEA furniture and the limits of AI The Economist 2018 Retrieved 24 April 2018 Sample Ian 18 October 2017 It s able to create knowledge itself Google unveils AI that learns on its own the Guardian Retrieved 7 May 2018 The AI revolution in science Science AAAS 5 July 2017 Retrieved 7 May 2018 Will your job still exist in 10 years when the robots arrive South China 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self teaching neural nets Artificial Intelligence 134 1 2 181 199 doi 10 1016 S0004 3702 01 00110 2 at least two other neural net programs also appear to be capable of superhuman play Kramnik vs Deep Fritz Computer wins match by 4 2 Chess News 2006 12 05 Retrieved 2018 07 15 The Week in Chess 771 theweekinchess com Retrieved 2018 07 15 Nickel Arno May 2017 Zor Winner in an Exciting Photo Finish www infinitychess com Innovative Solutions Retrieved 2018 07 17 on third place the best centaur Watson beats Jeopardy grand champions https www nytimes com 2011 02 17 science 17jeopardy watson html Jackson Joab IBM Watson Vanquishes Human Jeopardy Foes PC World IDG News Retrieved 2011 02 17 The Arimaa Challenge arimaa com Retrieved 2018 07 15 Roeder Oliver 10 July 2017 The Bots Beat Us Now What FiveThirtyEight Retrieved 28 December 2017 AlphaGo beats Ke Jie again to wrap up three part match The Verge Retrieved 2018 07 15 Blair Alan Saffidine Abdallah 30 August 2019 AI surpasses humans at six 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August 2008 Vernor Vinge s View of the Future Is Technology That Outthinks Us a Partner or a Master The New York Times Retrieved 31 January 2018 Superhumanism WIRED 1995 Retrieved 31 January 2018 Tech Luminaries Address Singularity IEEE Spectrum Technology Engineering and Science News 2008 Retrieved 31 January 2018 Molloy Mark 17 March 2017 Expert predicts date when sexier and funnier humans will merge with AI machines The Telegraph Retrieved 31 January 2018 Notes Edit IEEE Spectrum attributes to Moore both Never and I don t believe this kind of thing is likely to happen at least for a long time External links EditMIRI database of predictions about AGI Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Progress in artificial intelligence amp oldid 1134917463, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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