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Simulation hypothesis

The simulation hypothesis proposes that all of our existence is a simulated reality, such as a computer simulation.[1][2][3]

The simulation hypothesis bears a close resemblance to various other skeptical scenarios from throughout the history of philosophy. The hypothesis was popularized in its current form by Nick Bostrom.[4] The suggestion that such a hypothesis is compatible with all human perceptual experiences is thought to have significant epistemological consequences in the form of philosophical skepticism. Versions of the hypothesis have also been featured in science fiction, appearing as a central plot device in many stories and films.[5] The hypothesis popularized by Bostrom is very disputed, with, for example, theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder, who called it pseudoscience[6] and cosmologist George F. R. Ellis, who stated that "[the hypothesis] is totally impracticable from a technical viewpoint" and that "protagonists seem to have confused science fiction with science. Late-night pub discussion is not a viable theory."[7]

Origins

There is a long philosophical and scientific history to the underlying thesis that reality is an illusion. This skeptical hypothesis can be traced back to antiquity; for example, to the "Butterfly Dream" of Zhuangzi,[8] or the Indian philosophy of Maya, or in Ancient Greek philosophy Anaxarchus and Monimus likened existing things to a scene-painting and supposed them to resemble the impressions experienced in sleep or madness.[9]

Aztec philosophical texts theorized that the world was a painting or book written by the Teotl.[10]

In philosophy

 
Nick Bostrom in 2014

Nick Bostrom's premise:

Many works of science fiction as well as some forecasts by serious technologists and futurologists predict that enormous amounts of computing power will be available in the future. Let us suppose for a moment that these predictions are correct. One thing that later generations might do with their super-powerful computers is run detailed simulations of their forebears or of people like their forebears. Because their computers would be so powerful, they could run a great many such simulations. Suppose that these simulated people are conscious (as they would be if the simulations were sufficiently fine-grained and if a certain[which?] quite widely accepted position in the philosophy of mind is correct). Then it could be the case that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by the advanced descendants of an original race.

Nick Bostrom's conclusion:

It is then possible to argue that, if this were the case, we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones.
Therefore, if we don't think that we are currently living in a computer simulation, we are not entitled to believe that we will have descendants who will run lots of such simulations of their forebears.

— Nick Bostrom, Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?, 2003[11]

The simulation argument

In 2003, philosopher Nick Bostrom proposed a trilemma that he called "the simulation argument". Despite the name, Bostrom's "simulation argument" does not directly argue that humans live in a simulation; instead, Bostrom's trilemma argues that one of three unlikely-seeming propositions is almost certainly true:

  1. "The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero", or
  2. "The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running simulations of their evolutionary history, or variations thereof, is very close to zero", or
  3. "The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one."

The trilemma points out that a technologically mature "posthuman" civilization would have enormous computing power; if even a tiny percentage of them were to run "ancestor simulations" (that is, "high-fidelity" simulations of ancestral life that would be indistinguishable from reality to the simulated ancestor), the total number of simulated ancestors, or "Sims", in the universe (or multiverse, if it exists) would greatly exceed the total number of actual ancestors.

Bostrom goes on to use a type of anthropic reasoning to claim that, if the third proposition is the one of those three that is true, and almost all people live in simulations, then humans are almost certainly living in a simulation.

Bostrom claims his argument goes beyond the classical ancient "skeptical hypothesis", claiming that "...we have interesting empirical reasons to believe that a certain disjunctive claim about the world is true", the third of the three disjunctive propositions being that we are almost certainly living in a simulation. Thus, Bostrom, and writers in agreement with Bostrom such as David Chalmers, argue there might be empirical reasons for the "simulation hypothesis", and that therefore the simulation hypothesis is not a skeptical hypothesis but rather a "metaphysical hypothesis". Bostrom states he personally sees no strong argument as to which of the three trilemma propositions is the true one: "If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one's credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3)... I note that people who hear about the simulation argument often react by saying, 'Yes, I accept the argument, and it is obvious that it is possibility #n that obtains.' But different people pick a different n. Some think it obvious that (1) is true, others that (2) is true, yet others that (3) is true."

As a corollary to the trilemma, Bostrom states that "Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation."[11][12][13][14]

Criticism of Bostrom's anthropic reasoning

Bostrom argues that if "the fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one", then it follows that humans probably live in a simulation. Some philosophers disagree, proposing that perhaps "Sims" do not have conscious experiences the same way that unsimulated humans do, or that it can otherwise be self-evident to a human that they are a human rather than a Sim.[12][15] Philosopher Barry Dainton modifies Bostrom's trilemma by substituting "neural ancestor simulations" (ranging from literal brains in a vat, to far-future humans with induced high-fidelity hallucinations that they are their own distant ancestors) for Bostrom's "ancestor simulations", on the grounds that every philosophical school of thought can agree that sufficiently high-tech neural ancestor simulation experiences would be indistinguishable from non-simulated experiences. Even if high-fidelity computer Sims are never conscious, Dainton's reasoning leads to the following conclusion: either the fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage and are able and willing to run large numbers of neural ancestor simulations is close to zero, or some kind of (possibly neural) ancestor simulation exists.[16]

Some scholars categorically reject—or are uninterested in—anthropic reasoning, dismissing it as "merely philosophical", unfalsifiable, or inherently unscientific.[12]

Some critics propose that the simulation could be in the first generation, and all the simulated people that will one day be created do not yet exist.[12]

The cosmologist Sean M. Carroll argues that the simulation hypothesis leads to a contradiction: if humans are typical, as it is assumed, and not capable of performing simulations, this contradicts the arguer's assumption that it is easy for us to foresee that other civilizations can most likely perform simulations.[17]

Physicist Frank Wilczek raises an empirical objection, saying that the laws of the universe have hidden complexity which is "not used for anything" and the laws are constrained by time and location – all of this being unnecessary and extraneous in a simulation. He further argues that the simulation argument amounts to "begging the question," due to the "embarrassing question" of the nature of the underlying reality in which this universe is simulated. "Okay if this is a simulated world, what is the thing in which it is simulated made out of? What are the laws for that?"[18]

It has been argued that humans cannot be the ones being simulated, since the simulation argument uses its descendants as the ones running the simulations.[19] In other words, it has been argued that the probability that humans live in a simulated universe is not independent of the prior probability that is assigned to the existence of other universes.[20]

Arguments, within the trilemma, against the simulation hypothesis

Simulation down to molecular level of very small sample of matter

Some scholars accept the trilemma, and argue that the first or second of the propositions are true, and that the third proposition (the proposition that humans live in a simulation) is false. Physicist Paul Davies uses Bostrom's trilemma as part of one possible argument against a near-infinite multiverse. This argument runs as follows: if there were a near-infinite multiverse, there would be posthuman civilizations running ancestor simulations, which would lead to the untenable and scientifically self-defeating conclusion that humans live in a simulation; therefore, by reductio ad absurdum, existing multiverse theories are likely false. (Unlike Bostrom and Chalmers, Davies (among others) considers the simulation hypothesis to be self-defeating.)[12][21]

Some point out that there is currently no proof of technology that would facilitate the existence of sufficiently high-fidelity ancestor simulation. Additionally, there is no proof that it is physically possible or feasible for a posthuman civilization to create such a simulation, and therefore for the present, the first proposition must be taken to be true.[12] Additionally there are limits of computation.[11][22]

Physicist Marcelo Gleiser objects to the notion that posthumans would have a reason to run simulated universes: "...being so advanced they would have collected enough knowledge about their past to have little interest in this kind of simulation. ...They may have virtual-reality museums, where they could go and experience the lives and tribulations of their ancestors. But a full-fledged, resource-consuming simulation of an entire universe? Sounds like a colossal waste of time." Gleiser also points out that there is no plausible reason to stop at one level of simulation, so that the simulated ancestors might also be simulating their ancestors, and so on, creating an infinite regress akin to the "problem of the First Cause."[23]

In physics

In physics, the view of the universe and its workings as the ebb and flow of information was first observed by Wheeler.[24] Consequently, two views of the world emerged: the first one proposes that the universe is a quantum computer,[25] while the other one proposes that the system performing the simulation is distinct from its simulation (the universe).[26] Of the former view, quantum-computing specialist Dave Bacon wrote,

In many respects this point of view may be nothing more than a result of the fact that the notion of computation is the disease of our age—everywhere we look today we see examples of computers, computation, and information theory and thus we extrapolate this to our laws of physics. Indeed, thinking about computing as arising from faulty components, it seems as if the abstraction that uses perfectly operating computers is unlikely to exist as anything but a platonic ideal. Another critique of such a point of view is that there is no evidence for the kind of digitization that characterizes computers nor are there any predictions made by those who advocate such a view that have been experimentally confirmed.[27]

Advocates

Elon Musk firmly believes in the simulation hypothesis.[28] In a podcast with Joe Rogan, Musk said "If you assume any rate of improvement at all, games will eventually be indistinguishable from reality" before concluding "that it's most likely we're in a simulation."[29] He also stated in a 2016 interview that "there's a one in billions chance we're in base reality".[28]

Another high-profile proponent of the hypothesis is astrophysicist Neil Degrasse Tyson, who said in an NBC News interview that the hypothesis is correct, giving "better than 50-50 odds" and adding, "I wish I could summon a strong argument against it, but I can find none."[30]

However, in a subsequent interview with Chuck Nice on a YouTube episode of StarTalk, Tyson shares that his friend J. Richard Gott, a professor of astrophysical sciences at Princeton University, made him aware of a strong objection to the simulation hypothesis. The objection points out that the common trait that all hypothetical high-fidelity simulated universes possess is the ability to produce high-fidelity simulated universes. And being that our current world does not possess this ability, it would mean that either we are the real universe, and therefore simulated universes have not yet been created, or we are the last in a very long chain of simulated universes, an observation that makes the simulation hypothesis seem less probable. Regarding this objection, Tyson remarked "that changes my life."[31]

Testing the hypothesis physically

A method to test one type of simulation hypothesis was proposed in 2012 in a joint paper by physicists Silas R. Beane from the University of Bonn (now at the University of Washington, Seattle), and Zohreh Davoudi and Martin J. Savage from the University of Washington, Seattle.[32] Under the assumption of finite computational resources, the simulation of the universe would be performed by dividing the continuum space-time into a discrete set of points, which may result in observable effects. In analogy with the mini-simulations that lattice-gauge theorists run today to build up nuclei from the underlying theory of strong interactions (known as quantum chromodynamics), several observational consequences of a grid-like space-time have been studied in their work. Among proposed signatures is an anisotropy in the distribution of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays that, if observed, would be consistent with the simulation hypothesis according to these physicists.[33] In 2017, Campbell et al. proposed several experiments aimed at testing the simulation hypothesis in their paper "On Testing the Simulation Theory".[34]

In 2019, philosopher Preston Greene suggested that it may be best not to find out if we're living in a simulation since, if it were found to be true, such knowing might end the simulation.[35]

Other uses in philosophy

Besides attempting to assess whether the simulation hypothesis is true or false, philosophers have also used it to illustrate other philosophical problems, especially in metaphysics and epistemology. David Chalmers has argued that simulated beings might wonder whether their mental lives are governed by the physics of their environment, when in fact these mental lives are simulated separately (and are thus, in fact, not governed by the simulated physics).[36] Chalmers claims that they might eventually find that their thoughts fail to be physically caused, and argues that this means that Cartesian dualism is not necessarily as problematic of a philosophical view as is commonly supposed, though he does not endorse it.[37] Similar arguments have been made for philosophical views about personal identity that say that an individual could have been another human being in the past, as well as views about qualia that say that colors could have appeared differently than they do (the inverted spectrum scenario). In both cases, the claim is that all this would require is hooking up the mental lives to the simulated physics in a different way.[38]

Economist Robin Hanson argues that a self-interested occupant of a high-fidelity simulation should strive to be entertaining and praiseworthy in order to avoid being turned off or being shunted into a non-conscious low-fidelity part of the simulation. Hanson additionally speculates that someone who is aware that he might be in a simulation might care less about others and live more for today: "your motivation to save for retirement, or to help the poor in Ethiopia, might be muted by realizing that in your simulation, you will never retire and there is no Ethiopia."[39]

Brain in a vat and parsimony

Skeptical arguments have historically played a role in the evolution of philosophical discussion, particularly in the fields of ontology, metaphysics, the theory of knowledge and the philosophy of science. The fallibility of perception, knowledge and thought have been made obvious employing several arguments.[40] Solipsist scenarios, a common ground of debate in these fields, are extreme cases prompting these dilemmas for further discussion.

In virtue of computational simplicity, achieving this last kind of simulations with equal resolution seems much more undemanding than assembling a super simulator that runs a complete reality, including multiple participants. If humanity was being simulated, as noted by Lorenzo Pieri, it is more "likely to be one of such Brain-in-a-Vat or «solo players», as it is much easier to simulate the inputs to the brain than the full-blown reality".[41]

This probabilistic argument deferring to parsimony, is based on the idea that "if we randomly select the simulation (…) the likelihood of picking a given simulation is inversely correlated to the computational complexity of the simulation".[41]

Science fiction themes

Science fiction has highlighted themes such as virtual reality, artificial intelligence and computer gaming for more than fifty years.[42] Jokester (1956) by Isaac Asimov explores the idea that humor is actually a psychological study tool imposed from without by extraterrestrials studying mankind, similarly to how humans study mice. Simulacron-3 (1964) by Daniel F. Galouye (alternative title: Counterfeit World) tells the story of a virtual city developed as a computer simulation for market research purposes, in which the simulated inhabitants possess consciousness; all but one of the inhabitants are unaware of the true nature of their world. The book was made into a German made-for-TV film called World on a Wire (1973) directed by Rainer Werner Fassbinder. The film The Thirteenth Floor (1999) was also loosely based on this book. "We Can Remember It for You Wholesale" is a short story by American writer Philip K. Dick, first published in The Magazine of Fantasy & Science Fiction in April 1966, and was the basis for the 1990 film Total Recall and its 2012 remake. In Overdrawn at the Memory Bank, a 1983 television film, the main character pays to have his mind connected to a simulation.[citation needed]

The same theme was repeated in the 1999 film The Matrix, which depicted a world in which artificially intelligent robots enslaved humanity within a simulation set in the contemporary world. The 2012 play World of Wires was partially inspired by the Bostrom essay on the simulation hypothesis.[43]

The 2014 episode of the animated sitcom Rick and Morty , "M. Night Shaym-Aliens!", demonstrates a low-quality simulation that attempts to trap the two titular protagonists, but because the operation is less "realistic" than typically operated "reality", it becomes obvious. This implies one of two options for the hypothesis: either, our perceivable "reality" is an almost flawless, detailed and unnoticeably computed simulation that compares relatively highly, or it's relatively minimal but "reality" is all oneself would recognise and would have no comparative rival to differentiate between.

The 2022 Netflix epic period mystery-science fiction 1899 created by Jantje Friese and Baran bo Odar tells the unfinished story of a simulation scenario in which multiple persons find themselves in a circumstance of multiplicities and simultaneities. The storyline involves an amnesia, seemingly to protect the integrity of the simulation, as suggested would be necessary by the philosopher Preston Green.[35]

See also

References

  1. ^ Manjoo, Farhad (2022-01-26). "Opinion | We Might Be in a Simulation. How Much Should That Worry Us?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-02-10.
  2. ^ Paul Sutter (2022-01-21). "Do we live in a simulation? The problem with this mind-bending hypothesis". Space.com. Retrieved 2022-02-10.
  3. ^ Vopson, Melvin M. (22 November 2022). "Expert Proposes a Method For Telling if We All Live in a Computer Program". ScienceAlert. Retrieved 22 November 2022.
  4. ^ Overbye, Dennis (17 January 2023). "Are We Living in a Computer Simulation, and Can We Hack It? - A popular cosmological theory holds that the cosmos runs on quantum codes. So how hard could it be to tweak the supreme algorithm?". The New York Times. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
  5. ^ "The Matrix: Are we living in a simulation?". BBC Science Focus Magazine. Retrieved 2022-02-10.
  6. ^ Hossenfelder, Sabine (February 13, 2021). "The Simulation Hypothesis is Pseudoscience". BackReAction. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
  7. ^ Ellis, George (2012). "The multiverse: conjecture, proof, and science" (PDF). Retrieved April 18, 2021.
  8. ^ Grabianowski, Ed (7 May 2011). "You're living in a computer simulation, and the math proves it". Gizmodo. Retrieved 29 October 2016.
  9. ^ Sextus Empiricus Against the Logicians 1.88
  10. ^ Maffie, James. "Aztec Philosophy". Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved 19 April 2021.
  11. ^ a b c Bostrom, Nick (2003). "Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?". Philosophical Quarterly. 53 (211): 243–255. doi:10.1111/1467-9213.00309.
  12. ^ a b c d e f "The Simulation Argument Website FAQ".
  13. ^ Bostrom, Nick (2003). "The Simulation Argument: Why the Probability that You Are Living in a Matrix is Quite High".
  14. ^ Chalmers, Davis J. "The Matrix as Metaphysics".
  15. ^ Weatherson, Brian (2003). "Are You a Sim?". The Philosophical Quarterly. 53 (212): 425–431. doi:10.1111/1467-9213.00323. JSTOR 3543127.
  16. ^ Dainton, Barry (2012). "On singularities and simulations". Journal of Consciousness Studies. 19 (1): 42. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.374.7434.
  17. ^ Carroll, Sean (22 August 2016). "Maybe We Do Not Live in a Simulation: The Resolution Conundrum". PreposterousUniverse.com.
  18. ^ Sean Carroll (January 18, 2021). "SEAN CARROLL'S MINDSCAPE". Preposterousuniverse.com (Podcast). Sean Carroll. Event occurs at 0:53.37. The laws that we observe just don't look like a competently programmed simulation… They have a lot of hidden complexity. So when you dig deeper you find that there's a hidden structure that's not used for anything. Why would you do that, if you're simulating a world? Also, the laws are very constrained. They are local; they don't change in time; they don't change in place. In a programmed environment, there's no reason to obey any of those constraints… And then there's the embarrassing question of, okay if this is a simulated world, what is the thing in which it is simulated made out of? What are the laws for that? So it begs the question.
  19. ^ Eggleston, Brian. "Bostrom Review". stanford.edu. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
  20. ^ "Simulation Hypothesis: its appearance and meaning -- Simulation Hypothesis Definition and Articles". The Global Architect Institute. Retrieved 2022-02-10.
  21. ^ Davies, P. C. W. (2004). "Multiverse Cosmological Models". Modern Physics Letters A. 19 (10): 727–743. arXiv:astro-ph/0403047. Bibcode:2004MPLA...19..727D. doi:10.1142/S021773230401357X.
  22. ^ Jaeger, Gregg (2018). "Clockwork Rebooted: Is the Universe a Computer?". Quantum Foundations, Probability and Information. STEAM-H: Science, Technology, Engineering, Agriculture, Mathematics & Health: 71–91. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-74971-6_8. ISBN 978-3-319-74970-9.
  23. ^ Gleiser, Marcelo (March 9, 2017). "Why Reality Is Not a Video Game — and Why It Matters". Opinion. 13.7 Cosmos & Culture. NPR. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  24. ^ Wheeler, J.A. (1990) Information, Physics, Quantum. In: Zurek, W.H., Ed., Complexity, Entropy, and the Physics of Information, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 354-368.
  25. ^ Lloyd, Seth (2011-10-24). "The Universe as Quantum Computer". In Zenil, Hector (ed.). A Computable Universe. World Scientific. pp. 567–581. arXiv:1312.4455. doi:10.1142/9789814374309_0029. ISBN 978-981-4374-29-3. Retrieved 2021-04-13.
  26. ^ Campbell, T., Owhadi, H., Sauvageau, J. and Watkinson, D. (2017) On Testing the Simulation Theory.
  27. ^ Bacon, Dave (December 2010). "Ubiquity symposium 'What is computation?': Computation and Fundamental Physics". Ubiquity. 2010 (December): 1895419.1920826. doi:10.1145/1895419.1920826. ISSN 1530-2180. S2CID 14337268.
  28. ^ a b "Elon Musk Says There's a 'One in Billions' Chance Reality Is Not a Simulation - VICE". www.vice.com.
  29. ^ "Joe Rogan & Elon Musk - Are We in a Simulated Reality?". Archived from the original on 2021-12-15 – via www.youtube.com.
  30. ^ Powell, Corey S. "Elon Musk says we may live in a simulation. Here's how we might tell if he's right". www.nbcnews.com.
  31. ^ "Neil deGrasse Tyson Explains the Simulation Hypothesis". YouTube. Archived from the original on 2021-12-15.
  32. ^ Beane, Silas R.; Davoudi, Zohreh; J. Savage, Martin (2014). "Constraints on the universe as a numerical simulation". The European Physical Journal A. 50 (9): 148. arXiv:1210.1847. doi:10.1140/epja/i2014-14148-0. ISSN 1434-6001. S2CID 4236209.
  33. ^ Moskowitz, Clara (7 April 2016). "Are We Living in a Computer Simulation?". Scientific American.
  34. ^ Campbell, Tom; Owhadi, Houman; Sauvageau, Joe; Watkinson, David (June 17, 2017). "On Testing the Simulation Theory". International Journal of Quantum Foundations. 3 (3): 78–99.
  35. ^ a b Greene, Preston (10 August 2019). "Are We Living in a Computer Simulation? Let's Not Find Out - Experimental findings will be either boring or extremely dangerous". The New York Times. Retrieved 25 December 2022.
  36. ^ Chalmers, David (January 1990). "How Cartesian Dualism Might Have Been True".
  37. ^ "Reality+ by David J Chalmers review – are we living in a simulation?". The Guardian. 2022-01-19. Retrieved 2022-02-10.
  38. ^ Conitzer, Vincent (2019). "A Puzzle about Further Facts". Erkenntnis. 84 (3): 727–739. arXiv:1802.01161. doi:10.1007/s10670-018-9979-6. S2CID 36796226.
  39. ^ Hanson, Robin (2001). "How to live in a simulation" (PDF). Journal of Evolution and Technology. 7.
  40. ^ "Skepticism". Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Retrieved June 6, 2021.
  41. ^ a b Pieri, L. (2021). "The Simplicity Assumption and Some Implications of the Simulation Argument for our Civilization". OSF Preprints. doi:10.31219/osf.io/ca8se. S2CID 240660433. Retrieved June 6, 2021.
  42. ^ Guan, Chong; Mou, Jian; Jiang, Zhiying (2020-12-01). "Artificial intelligence innovation in education: A twenty-year data-driven historical analysis". International Journal of Innovation Studies. 4 (4): 134–147. doi:10.1016/j.ijis.2020.09.001. ISSN 2096-2487.
  43. ^ Brantley, Ben (January 16, 2012). "'World of Wires' at the Kitchen — Review". The New York Times.

Further reading

  • "Are We Living in a Simulation?" BBC Focus magazine, March 2013, pages 43–45. Interview with physicist Silas Beane of the University of Bonn discussing a proposed test for simulated reality evidence. Three pages, three photos, including one of Beane and a computer-generated scene from the film The Matrix. Publisher: Immediate Media Company, Bristol, UK.
  • Conitzer, Vincent. "A Puzzle About Further Facts". Open access version of article in Erkenntnis.
  • Campbell, Tom; Houman Owhadi, Joe Sauvageau, David Watkinson: "On testing the simulation theory". arXiv:1703.00058.
  • Lev, Gid'on. Life in the Matrix. Haaretz Magazine, April 25, 2019, page 6.
  • Merali, Zeeya. "Do We Live in the Matrix?" Discover, December 2013, pages 24–25. Subtitle: "Physicists have proposed tests to reveal whether we are part of a giant computer simulation."
  • Virk, Rizwan. The Simulation Hypothesis: An MIT Computer Scientist Shows Why AI, Quantum Physics, and Eastern Mystics All Agree We Are In a Video Game.

External links

  • Are We Living in a Computer Simulation?—Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument webpage
  • Techniques for programming a Simulation Universe at the Planck level
  • Our Universe Is A Massive Neural Network: Here's Why

simulation, hypothesis, simulation, hypothesis, proposes, that, existence, simulated, reality, such, computer, simulation, simulation, hypothesis, bears, close, resemblance, various, other, skeptical, scenarios, from, throughout, history, philosophy, hypothesi. The simulation hypothesis proposes that all of our existence is a simulated reality such as a computer simulation 1 2 3 The simulation hypothesis bears a close resemblance to various other skeptical scenarios from throughout the history of philosophy The hypothesis was popularized in its current form by Nick Bostrom 4 The suggestion that such a hypothesis is compatible with all human perceptual experiences is thought to have significant epistemological consequences in the form of philosophical skepticism Versions of the hypothesis have also been featured in science fiction appearing as a central plot device in many stories and films 5 The hypothesis popularized by Bostrom is very disputed with for example theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder who called it pseudoscience 6 and cosmologist George F R Ellis who stated that the hypothesis is totally impracticable from a technical viewpoint and that protagonists seem to have confused science fiction with science Late night pub discussion is not a viable theory 7 Contents 1 Origins 2 In philosophy 2 1 The simulation argument 2 2 Criticism of Bostrom s anthropic reasoning 2 3 Arguments within the trilemma against the simulation hypothesis 3 In physics 4 Advocates 5 Testing the hypothesis physically 6 Other uses in philosophy 6 1 Brain in a vat and parsimony 6 2 Science fiction themes 7 See also 8 References 9 Further reading 10 External linksOrigins EditThere is a long philosophical and scientific history to the underlying thesis that reality is an illusion This skeptical hypothesis can be traced back to antiquity for example to the Butterfly Dream of Zhuangzi 8 or the Indian philosophy of Maya or in Ancient Greek philosophy Anaxarchus and Monimus likened existing things to a scene painting and supposed them to resemble the impressions experienced in sleep or madness 9 Aztec philosophical texts theorized that the world was a painting or book written by the Teotl 10 In philosophy Edit Nick Bostrom in 2014 Nick Bostrom s premise Many works of science fiction as well as some forecasts by serious technologists and futurologists predict that enormous amounts of computing power will be available in the future Let us suppose for a moment that these predictions are correct One thing that later generations might do with their super powerful computers is run detailed simulations of their forebears or of people like their forebears Because their computers would be so powerful they could run a great many such simulations Suppose that these simulated people are conscious as they would be if the simulations were sufficiently fine grained and if a certain which quite widely accepted position in the philosophy of mind is correct Then it could be the case that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by the advanced descendants of an original race Nick Bostrom s conclusion It is then possible to argue that if this were the case we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones Therefore if we don t think that we are currently living in a computer simulation we are not entitled to believe that we will have descendants who will run lots of such simulations of their forebears Nick Bostrom Are You Living in a Computer Simulation 2003 11 The simulation argument Edit In 2003 philosopher Nick Bostrom proposed a trilemma that he called the simulation argument Despite the name Bostrom s simulation argument does not directly argue that humans live in a simulation instead Bostrom s trilemma argues that one of three unlikely seeming propositions is almost certainly true The fraction of human level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage that is one capable of running high fidelity ancestor simulations is very close to zero or The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running simulations of their evolutionary history or variations thereof is very close to zero or The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one The trilemma points out that a technologically mature posthuman civilization would have enormous computing power if even a tiny percentage of them were to run ancestor simulations that is high fidelity simulations of ancestral life that would be indistinguishable from reality to the simulated ancestor the total number of simulated ancestors or Sims in the universe or multiverse if it exists would greatly exceed the total number of actual ancestors Bostrom goes on to use a type of anthropic reasoning to claim that if the third proposition is the one of those three that is true and almost all people live in simulations then humans are almost certainly living in a simulation Bostrom claims his argument goes beyond the classical ancient skeptical hypothesis claiming that we have interesting empirical reasons to believe that a certain disjunctive claim about the world is true the third of the three disjunctive propositions being that we are almost certainly living in a simulation Thus Bostrom and writers in agreement with Bostrom such as David Chalmers argue there might be empirical reasons for the simulation hypothesis and that therefore the simulation hypothesis is not a skeptical hypothesis but rather a metaphysical hypothesis Bostrom states he personally sees no strong argument as to which of the three trilemma propositions is the true one If 1 is true then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity If 2 is true then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any individuals who desire to run ancestor simulations and are free to do so If 3 is true then we almost certainly live in a simulation In the dark forest of our current ignorance it seems sensible to apportion one s credence roughly evenly between 1 2 and 3 I note that people who hear about the simulation argument often react by saying Yes I accept the argument and it is obvious that it is possibility n that obtains But different people pick a different n Some think it obvious that 1 is true others that 2 is true yet others that 3 is true As a corollary to the trilemma Bostrom states that Unless we are now living in a simulation our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor simulation 11 12 13 14 Criticism of Bostrom s anthropic reasoning Edit Further information Anthropic principle Bostrom argues that if the fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one then it follows that humans probably live in a simulation Some philosophers disagree proposing that perhaps Sims do not have conscious experiences the same way that unsimulated humans do or that it can otherwise be self evident to a human that they are a human rather than a Sim 12 15 Philosopher Barry Dainton modifies Bostrom s trilemma by substituting neural ancestor simulations ranging from literal brains in a vat to far future humans with induced high fidelity hallucinations that they are their own distant ancestors for Bostrom s ancestor simulations on the grounds that every philosophical school of thought can agree that sufficiently high tech neural ancestor simulation experiences would be indistinguishable from non simulated experiences Even if high fidelity computer Sims are never conscious Dainton s reasoning leads to the following conclusion either the fraction of human level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage and are able and willing to run large numbers of neural ancestor simulations is close to zero or some kind of possibly neural ancestor simulation exists 16 Some scholars categorically reject or are uninterested in anthropic reasoning dismissing it as merely philosophical unfalsifiable or inherently unscientific 12 Some critics propose that the simulation could be in the first generation and all the simulated people that will one day be created do not yet exist 12 The cosmologist Sean M Carroll argues that the simulation hypothesis leads to a contradiction if humans are typical as it is assumed and not capable of performing simulations this contradicts the arguer s assumption that it is easy for us to foresee that other civilizations can most likely perform simulations 17 Physicist Frank Wilczek raises an empirical objection saying that the laws of the universe have hidden complexity which is not used for anything and the laws are constrained by time and location all of this being unnecessary and extraneous in a simulation He further argues that the simulation argument amounts to begging the question due to the embarrassing question of the nature of the underlying reality in which this universe is simulated Okay if this is a simulated world what is the thing in which it is simulated made out of What are the laws for that 18 It has been argued that humans cannot be the ones being simulated since the simulation argument uses its descendants as the ones running the simulations 19 In other words it has been argued that the probability that humans live in a simulated universe is not independent of the prior probability that is assigned to the existence of other universes 20 Arguments within the trilemma against the simulation hypothesis Edit source source source source source source source source source source source source Simulation down to molecular level of very small sample of matter Some scholars accept the trilemma and argue that the first or second of the propositions are true and that the third proposition the proposition that humans live in a simulation is false Physicist Paul Davies uses Bostrom s trilemma as part of one possible argument against a near infinite multiverse This argument runs as follows if there were a near infinite multiverse there would be posthuman civilizations running ancestor simulations which would lead to the untenable and scientifically self defeating conclusion that humans live in a simulation therefore by reductio ad absurdum existing multiverse theories are likely false Unlike Bostrom and Chalmers Davies among others considers the simulation hypothesis to be self defeating 12 21 Some point out that there is currently no proof of technology that would facilitate the existence of sufficiently high fidelity ancestor simulation Additionally there is no proof that it is physically possible or feasible for a posthuman civilization to create such a simulation and therefore for the present the first proposition must be taken to be true 12 Additionally there are limits of computation 11 22 Physicist Marcelo Gleiser objects to the notion that posthumans would have a reason to run simulated universes being so advanced they would have collected enough knowledge about their past to have little interest in this kind of simulation They may have virtual reality museums where they could go and experience the lives and tribulations of their ancestors But a full fledged resource consuming simulation of an entire universe Sounds like a colossal waste of time Gleiser also points out that there is no plausible reason to stop at one level of simulation so that the simulated ancestors might also be simulating their ancestors and so on creating an infinite regress akin to the problem of the First Cause 23 In physics EditIn physics the view of the universe and its workings as the ebb and flow of information was first observed by Wheeler 24 Consequently two views of the world emerged the first one proposes that the universe is a quantum computer 25 while the other one proposes that the system performing the simulation is distinct from its simulation the universe 26 Of the former view quantum computing specialist Dave Bacon wrote In many respects this point of view may be nothing more than a result of the fact that the notion of computation is the disease of our age everywhere we look today we see examples of computers computation and information theory and thus we extrapolate this to our laws of physics Indeed thinking about computing as arising from faulty components it seems as if the abstraction that uses perfectly operating computers is unlikely to exist as anything but a platonic ideal Another critique of such a point of view is that there is no evidence for the kind of digitization that characterizes computers nor are there any predictions made by those who advocate such a view that have been experimentally confirmed 27 Advocates EditElon Musk firmly believes in the simulation hypothesis 28 In a podcast with Joe Rogan Musk said If you assume any rate of improvement at all games will eventually be indistinguishable from reality before concluding that it s most likely we re in a simulation 29 He also stated in a 2016 interview that there s a one in billions chance we re in base reality 28 Another high profile proponent of the hypothesis is astrophysicist Neil Degrasse Tyson who said in an NBC News interview that the hypothesis is correct giving better than 50 50 odds and adding I wish I could summon a strong argument against it but I can find none 30 However in a subsequent interview with Chuck Nice on a YouTube episode of StarTalk Tyson shares that his friend J Richard Gott a professor of astrophysical sciences at Princeton University made him aware of a strong objection to the simulation hypothesis The objection points out that the common trait that all hypothetical high fidelity simulated universes possess is the ability to produce high fidelity simulated universes And being that our current world does not possess this ability it would mean that either we are the real universe and therefore simulated universes have not yet been created or we are the last in a very long chain of simulated universes an observation that makes the simulation hypothesis seem less probable Regarding this objection Tyson remarked that changes my life 31 Testing the hypothesis physically EditA method to test one type of simulation hypothesis was proposed in 2012 in a joint paper by physicists Silas R Beane from the University of Bonn now at the University of Washington Seattle and Zohreh Davoudi and Martin J Savage from the University of Washington Seattle 32 Under the assumption of finite computational resources the simulation of the universe would be performed by dividing the continuum space time into a discrete set of points which may result in observable effects In analogy with the mini simulations that lattice gauge theorists run today to build up nuclei from the underlying theory of strong interactions known as quantum chromodynamics several observational consequences of a grid like space time have been studied in their work Among proposed signatures is an anisotropy in the distribution of ultra high energy cosmic rays that if observed would be consistent with the simulation hypothesis according to these physicists 33 In 2017 Campbell et al proposed several experiments aimed at testing the simulation hypothesis in their paper On Testing the Simulation Theory 34 In 2019 philosopher Preston Greene suggested that it may be best not to find out if we re living in a simulation since if it were found to be true such knowing might end the simulation 35 Other uses in philosophy EditBesides attempting to assess whether the simulation hypothesis is true or false philosophers have also used it to illustrate other philosophical problems especially in metaphysics and epistemology David Chalmers has argued that simulated beings might wonder whether their mental lives are governed by the physics of their environment when in fact these mental lives are simulated separately and are thus in fact not governed by the simulated physics 36 Chalmers claims that they might eventually find that their thoughts fail to be physically caused and argues that this means that Cartesian dualism is not necessarily as problematic of a philosophical view as is commonly supposed though he does not endorse it 37 Similar arguments have been made for philosophical views about personal identity that say that an individual could have been another human being in the past as well as views about qualia that say that colors could have appeared differently than they do the inverted spectrum scenario In both cases the claim is that all this would require is hooking up the mental lives to the simulated physics in a different way 38 Economist Robin Hanson argues that a self interested occupant of a high fidelity simulation should strive to be entertaining and praiseworthy in order to avoid being turned off or being shunted into a non conscious low fidelity part of the simulation Hanson additionally speculates that someone who is aware that he might be in a simulation might care less about others and live more for today your motivation to save for retirement or to help the poor in Ethiopia might be muted by realizing that in your simulation you will never retire and there is no Ethiopia 39 Brain in a vat and parsimony Edit Skeptical arguments have historically played a role in the evolution of philosophical discussion particularly in the fields of ontology metaphysics the theory of knowledge and the philosophy of science The fallibility of perception knowledge and thought have been made obvious employing several arguments 40 Solipsist scenarios a common ground of debate in these fields are extreme cases prompting these dilemmas for further discussion In virtue of computational simplicity achieving this last kind of simulations with equal resolution seems much more undemanding than assembling a super simulator that runs a complete reality including multiple participants If humanity was being simulated as noted by Lorenzo Pieri it is more likely to be one of such Brain in a Vat or solo players as it is much easier to simulate the inputs to the brain than the full blown reality 41 This probabilistic argument deferring to parsimony is based on the idea that if we randomly select the simulation the likelihood of picking a given simulation is inversely correlated to the computational complexity of the simulation 41 Science fiction themes Edit Further information Simulated reality in fiction and Simulated consciousness science fiction Science fiction has highlighted themes such as virtual reality artificial intelligence and computer gaming for more than fifty years 42 Jokester 1956 by Isaac Asimov explores the idea that humor is actually a psychological study tool imposed from without by extraterrestrials studying mankind similarly to how humans study mice Simulacron 3 1964 by Daniel F Galouye alternative title Counterfeit World tells the story of a virtual city developed as a computer simulation for market research purposes in which the simulated inhabitants possess consciousness all but one of the inhabitants are unaware of the true nature of their world The book was made into a German made for TV film called World on a Wire 1973 directed by Rainer Werner Fassbinder The film The Thirteenth Floor 1999 was also loosely based on this book We Can Remember It for You Wholesale is a short story by American writer Philip K Dick first published in The Magazine of Fantasy amp Science Fiction in April 1966 and was the basis for the 1990 film Total Recall and its 2012 remake In Overdrawn at the Memory Bank a 1983 television film the main character pays to have his mind connected to a simulation citation needed The same theme was repeated in the 1999 film The Matrix which depicted a world in which artificially intelligent robots enslaved humanity within a simulation set in the contemporary world The 2012 play World of Wires was partially inspired by the Bostrom essay on the simulation hypothesis 43 The 2014 episode of the animated sitcom Rick and Morty M Night Shaym Aliens demonstrates a low quality simulation that attempts to trap the two titular protagonists but because the operation is less realistic than typically operated reality it becomes obvious This implies one of two options for the hypothesis either our perceivable reality is an almost flawless detailed and unnoticeably computed simulation that compares relatively highly or it s relatively minimal but reality is all oneself would recognise and would have no comparative rival to differentiate between The 2022 Netflix epic period mystery science fiction 1899 created by Jantje Friese and Baran bo Odar tells the unfinished story of a simulation scenario in which multiple persons find themselves in a circumstance of multiplicities and simultaneities The storyline involves an amnesia seemingly to protect the integrity of the simulation as suggested would be necessary by the philosopher Preston Green 35 See also EditAdvaita Vedanta Avatamsaka Sutra Boltzmann brain Brain in a vat Calculating Space Depersonalization derealization disorder Digital physics Fine tuned universe Holographic principle Interface theory Mathematical universe hypothesis Simulation video game Virtual reality ZhuangziReferences Edit Manjoo Farhad 2022 01 26 Opinion We Might Be in a Simulation How Much Should That Worry Us The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved 2022 02 10 Paul Sutter 2022 01 21 Do we live in a simulation The problem with this mind bending hypothesis Space com Retrieved 2022 02 10 Vopson Melvin M 22 November 2022 Expert Proposes a Method For Telling if We All Live in a Computer Program ScienceAlert Retrieved 22 November 2022 Overbye Dennis 17 January 2023 Are We Living in a Computer Simulation and Can We Hack It A popular cosmological theory holds that the cosmos runs on quantum codes So how hard could it be to tweak the supreme algorithm The New York Times Retrieved 17 January 2023 The Matrix Are we living in a simulation BBC Science Focus Magazine Retrieved 2022 02 10 Hossenfelder Sabine February 13 2021 The Simulation Hypothesis is Pseudoscience BackReAction Retrieved April 18 2021 Ellis George 2012 The multiverse conjecture proof and science PDF Retrieved April 18 2021 Grabianowski Ed 7 May 2011 You re living in a computer simulation and the math proves it Gizmodo Retrieved 29 October 2016 Sextus Empiricus Against the Logicians 1 88 Maffie James Aztec Philosophy Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy Retrieved 19 April 2021 a b c Bostrom Nick 2003 Are You Living in a Computer Simulation Philosophical Quarterly 53 211 243 255 doi 10 1111 1467 9213 00309 a b c d e f The Simulation Argument Website FAQ Bostrom Nick 2003 The Simulation Argument Why the Probability that You Are Living in a Matrix is Quite High Chalmers Davis J The Matrix as Metaphysics Weatherson Brian 2003 Are You a Sim The Philosophical Quarterly 53 212 425 431 doi 10 1111 1467 9213 00323 JSTOR 3543127 Dainton Barry 2012 On singularities and simulations Journal of Consciousness Studies 19 1 42 CiteSeerX 10 1 1 374 7434 Carroll Sean 22 August 2016 Maybe We Do Not Live in a Simulation The Resolution Conundrum PreposterousUniverse com Sean Carroll January 18 2021 SEAN CARROLL S MINDSCAPE Preposterousuniverse com Podcast Sean Carroll Event occurs at 0 53 37 The laws that we observe just don t look like a competently programmed simulation They have a lot of hidden complexity So when you dig deeper you find that there s a hidden structure that s not used for anything Why would you do that if you re simulating a world Also the laws are very constrained They are local they don t change in time they don t change in place In a programmed environment there s no reason to obey any of those constraints And then there s the embarrassing question of okay if this is a simulated world what is the thing in which it is simulated made out of What are the laws for that So it begs the question Eggleston Brian Bostrom Review stanford edu Retrieved April 18 2021 Simulation Hypothesis its appearance and meaning Simulation Hypothesis Definition and Articles The Global Architect Institute Retrieved 2022 02 10 Davies P C W 2004 Multiverse Cosmological Models Modern Physics Letters A 19 10 727 743 arXiv astro ph 0403047 Bibcode 2004MPLA 19 727D doi 10 1142 S021773230401357X Jaeger Gregg 2018 Clockwork Rebooted Is the Universe a Computer Quantum Foundations Probability and Information STEAM H Science Technology Engineering Agriculture Mathematics amp Health 71 91 doi 10 1007 978 3 319 74971 6 8 ISBN 978 3 319 74970 9 Gleiser Marcelo March 9 2017 Why Reality Is Not a Video Game and Why It Matters Opinion 13 7 Cosmos amp Culture NPR Retrieved January 18 2021 Wheeler J A 1990 Information Physics Quantum In Zurek W H Ed Complexity Entropy and the Physics of Information Addison Wesley Boston 354 368 Lloyd Seth 2011 10 24 The Universe as Quantum Computer In Zenil Hector ed A Computable Universe World Scientific pp 567 581 arXiv 1312 4455 doi 10 1142 9789814374309 0029 ISBN 978 981 4374 29 3 Retrieved 2021 04 13 Campbell T Owhadi H Sauvageau J and Watkinson D 2017 On Testing the Simulation Theory Bacon Dave December 2010 Ubiquity symposium What is computation Computation and Fundamental Physics Ubiquity 2010 December 1895419 1920826 doi 10 1145 1895419 1920826 ISSN 1530 2180 S2CID 14337268 a b Elon Musk Says There s a One in Billions Chance Reality Is Not a Simulation VICE www vice com Joe Rogan amp Elon Musk Are We in a Simulated Reality Archived from the original on 2021 12 15 via www youtube com Powell Corey S Elon Musk says we may live in a simulation Here s how we might tell if he s right www nbcnews com Neil deGrasse Tyson Explains the Simulation Hypothesis YouTube Archived from the original on 2021 12 15 Beane Silas R Davoudi Zohreh J Savage Martin 2014 Constraints on the universe as a numerical simulation The European Physical Journal A 50 9 148 arXiv 1210 1847 doi 10 1140 epja i2014 14148 0 ISSN 1434 6001 S2CID 4236209 Moskowitz Clara 7 April 2016 Are We Living in a Computer Simulation Scientific American Campbell Tom Owhadi Houman Sauvageau Joe Watkinson David June 17 2017 On Testing the Simulation Theory International Journal of Quantum Foundations 3 3 78 99 a b Greene Preston 10 August 2019 Are We Living in a Computer Simulation Let s Not Find Out Experimental findings will be either boring or extremely dangerous The New York Times Retrieved 25 December 2022 Chalmers David January 1990 How Cartesian Dualism Might Have Been True Reality by David J Chalmers review are we living in a simulation The Guardian 2022 01 19 Retrieved 2022 02 10 Conitzer Vincent 2019 A Puzzle about Further Facts Erkenntnis 84 3 727 739 arXiv 1802 01161 doi 10 1007 s10670 018 9979 6 S2CID 36796226 Hanson Robin 2001 How to live in a simulation PDF Journal of Evolution and Technology 7 Skepticism Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Retrieved June 6 2021 a b Pieri L 2021 The Simplicity Assumption and Some Implications of the Simulation Argument for our Civilization OSF Preprints doi 10 31219 osf io ca8se S2CID 240660433 Retrieved June 6 2021 Guan Chong Mou Jian Jiang Zhiying 2020 12 01 Artificial intelligence innovation in education A twenty year data driven historical analysis International Journal of Innovation Studies 4 4 134 147 doi 10 1016 j ijis 2020 09 001 ISSN 2096 2487 Brantley Ben January 16 2012 World of Wires at the Kitchen Review The New York Times Further reading Edit Are We Living in a Simulation BBC Focus magazine March 2013 pages 43 45 Interview with physicist Silas Beane of the University of Bonn discussing a proposed test for simulated reality evidence Three pages three photos including one of Beane and a computer generated scene from the film The Matrix Publisher Immediate Media Company Bristol UK Conitzer Vincent A Puzzle About Further Facts Open access version of article in Erkenntnis Campbell Tom Houman Owhadi Joe Sauvageau David Watkinson On testing the simulation theory arXiv 1703 00058 Lev Gid on Life in the Matrix Haaretz Magazine April 25 2019 page 6 Merali Zeeya Do We Live in the Matrix Discover December 2013 pages 24 25 Subtitle Physicists have proposed tests to reveal whether we are part of a giant computer simulation Virk Rizwan The Simulation Hypothesis An MIT Computer Scientist Shows Why AI Quantum Physics and Eastern Mystics All Agree We Are In a Video Game External links EditAre We Living in a Computer Simulation Nick Bostrom s Simulation Argument webpage Techniques for programming a Simulation Universe at the Planck level Our Universe Is A Massive Neural Network Here s Why Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Simulation hypothesis amp oldid 1134762326, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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