2023 New South Wales state election

The 2023 New South Wales state election was held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

2023 New South Wales state election

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All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
First party Second party Third party   Leader Chris Minns Dominic Perrottet No leader Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens Leader since 4 June 2021 5 October 2021 N/A Leader's seat Kogarah Epping N/A Last election 36 seats, 33.31% 48 seats, 41.58% 3 seats, 9.57% Seats before 36^[a] 45^[b] 3 Seats won 45 36 3 Seat change 9 12 First-preference vote 1,738,081 1,663,215 455,960 Percentage 36.97% 35.37% 9.70% Swing 3.66 6.21 0.13 TPP 54.26% 45.74% TPP 6.29 6.29
Two candidate preferred margin within each electorate. Party gaining or holding each electorate.
Premier before election Dominic Perrottet Liberal Elected Premier Chris Minns Labor

The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, sought to win a fourth successive four-year term in office, though were defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents also contested the election. The outcome resulted in the first Labor government in the state in 12 years, ending the longest Coalition government in New South Wales history.^[1] It was also the first time since 1995 that Labor had won a New South Wales state election from opposition.^[2] The election also marked the second time in history that the Australian Labor Party gained control of the entirety of Mainland Australia at the federal and state levels simultaneously (leaving Tasmania as the only state with a Liberal government), a feat last achieved in 2007.^[3][4]

Though the Coalition was defeated, Labor were unable to win enough seats to govern in majority, resulting in a hung parliament. However, they will be able to govern with the support of independent MPs Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr, who will guarantee Labor confidence and supply.^[5] Piper also made an agreement with Labor to become the Speaker of the Lower House, a role which he had been preparing for by doing duty as a deputy speaker.^[6]

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

The online voting system iVote was not used in this election. The NSW Government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW Council elections saw five wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run.^[7]

Background

Previous election

See also: 2019 New South Wales state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Change of premiership, resignations and minority government

See also: Members of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, 2019–2023

Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.^[8] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.^[9]

On 1 October 2021, Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her personal relationship with the former member for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire.^[10] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.^[11] Findings about the case were not released prior to the election.^[12] Despite this, Berejiklian still recorded high approval ratings, with psephologist Antony Green even claiming that should she have remained Premier, the Coalition would have been the favourites to win the election.^[13]

The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.^[14] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.^[15][16] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.^[17] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.^[18]

In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.^[19] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.^[20] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election prompted concern from Liberal MPs Tim James and Matt Kean, and along with other concerns caused Perrotet to portray himself as increasingly moderate.^[21][22]

On 29 March 2022, the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party.^[23][24] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.

On 20 October 2022, Tania Mihailuk MP resigned from the NSW Labor Party^[25] and announced on 17 January 2023, that she would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham.^[26]

From a poll that followed the Nazi uniform scandal, 67% said it didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition.^[27]

Possibility of a hung parliament

It was widely predicted that the election would lead to a hung parliament, meaning that a party wishing to form government must obtain confidence and supply from crossbenchers. The Greens were almost certain to side with Labor, while the three ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party independents would have likely sided with the Coalition. Three other independents (Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr) had given confidence and supply to the Coalition. After the election, the three confirmed that they would give confidence and supply to Labor should it be required, as Labor only won 45 seats, two seats short of a majority.^[28]

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,^[29] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Campaign

On 12 January, Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage.^[30][31] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation.^[32][33] Robert Borsak, the leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident.^[34] On 5 March 2023, NSW Labor Party had their official campaign launch.^[35]

On 9 March a significant outage of the Sydney rail network caused by a communications failure saw Perrottet to apologise to customers and offer a fare-free day.^[36]

On 11 March, The Greens NSW had their campaign launch, where they listed their balance of power objectives.^[37]

On 12 March the Liberal Party had their official campaign launch.^[38][39]

On 14 March, confidential documents from KPMG and Clayton Utz consultants regarding the privatisation of Sydney Water were made public. Perrottet, who was the Treasurer at the time had previously declared in March 2020 that he had no plans to even do a study on privatisation, but the documents revealed that studies had taken place in January 2020 and later in November 2021, with the reporting making it clear the study was done due to direct pressure from the Government.^[40] The issue was widely discussed in Sydney newspapers and on right-wing talkback radio where commentators slammed the potential privatisation and declared that Perrottet was lying about his "lack of plans" to privatise Sydney Water.

On 21 March, it was reported that Perrottet had been accused of seeking special treatment via the health minister when requesting ambulance services.^[41][42][43]

Labor recommended its supporters preference the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to counter One Nation in some seats.^[44]

Policies

In the 2023 New South Wales election campaign, Chris Minns and Labor made election promises to invest further into public services.^[45]

Minns has been criticised for being reluctant to promise reform on money laundering in gambling,^[46] however on 16 January Minns released a plan to reform gambling, banning donations from clubs (gambling organisations) to political parties and promising a cashless gaming card trial, which would last for 12 months and cover 500 of the approximately 86,480 (0.58%) pokies machines (slots).^[47][48] Dominic Perrottet and the Liberals announced plans to introduce a cashless gaming card for pokie machines in clubs and pubs in NSW,^[49] but a transition period where non-metropolitan pokies may be excluded from the pilot program has been discussed.^[50]

One Nation ran on a platform of nuclear power and parental rights.^[51]

NSW Labor pledged to enshrine government ownership of Sydney Water in the NSW state constitution,^[52][53] a similar move that the Victorian government was doing with the state's SEC.

Leaders' debates

The first leaders' debate was held on Thursday, 9 February 2023 on 2GB. Perrottet was declared the winner, with the support 65% of voters in an online poll following the debate.^[54]

A Channel 7 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 8 March 2023.^[55]

A Channel 9 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 15 March 2023.^[56][57]

A Sky News Australia leaders debate was held on 22 March 2023.^[58]

2023 New South Wales state election debates
Date	Organizers	Moderators	P  Present		References
			Perrottet	Minns
9 February 05:30 AEDT	2GB Radio Sydney	Ben Fordham	P	P	^[59]
8 March 12:00 AEDT	Seven News/Channel 7	Amelia Brace	P	P	^[55]
15 March 12:00 AEDT	Nine News/Channel 9 Sydney Morning Herald	Peter Overton	P	P
22 March 19:30 AEDT	Sky News Australia Daily Telegraph	Kieran Gilbert	P	P	^[60]

Redistribution

 

Comparison between the old and new electoral district boundaries, coloured by party vote in the 2019 state election

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.^[61]

In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries were released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.^[62]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba was abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney was created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.^[62]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:^[62]

• Mulgoa – to be renamed Badgerys Creek
• Baulkham Hills – to be renamed Kellyville
• Ku-ring-gai – to be renamed Wahroonga
• Seven Hills – to be renamed Winston Hills

The Liberal-held Heathcote took in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and became a notionally marginal Labor seat.^[63]

Current seat	2019 election				New seat	2021 redistribution
	Party		Member	Margin		Party		Member	Margin*
Baulkham Hills		Liberal	David Elliott	18.68	Kellyville		Liberal	Notional	23.1
Heathcote		Liberal	Lee Evans	4.96	Heathcote		Labor	Notional	1.7
Ku-ring-gai		Liberal	Alister Henskens	20.52	Wahroonga		Liberal	Notional	19.0
Lakemba		Labor	Jihad Dib	22.42	Abolished
New seat					Leppington		Labor	Notional	1.5
Mulgoa		Liberal	Tanya Davies	10.13	Badgerys Creek		Liberal	Notional	9.7
Seven Hills		Liberal	Mark Taylor	6.36	Winston Hills		Liberal	Notional	5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fifteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).^[64] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Animal Justice Party Australian Labor Party Elizabeth Farrelly Independents The Greens NSW Informed Medical Options Party

Legalise Cannabis NSW Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Party of Australia National Party of Australia Pauline Hanson's One Nation

Public Education Party Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party Small Business Party Socialist Alliance Sustainable Australia

Results

Legislative Assembly

Main article: Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly)

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)^{[65][66][67][68]}

Party			Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Labor		1,738,081	36.97	+3.66	45	9
		Liberal	1,259,253	26.78	–5.21	25	10
		National	403,962	8.59	–1.00	11	2
	Coalition total		1,663,215	35.37	–6.21	36	12
	Greens		455,960	9.70	+0.13	3
	Sustainable Australia		104,697	2.23	+0.69	0
	One Nation		84,683	1.80	+0.70	0
	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers		73,359	1.56	–1.90	0	3
	Legalise Cannabis		60,057	1.28	+1.28	0
	Animal Justice		51,548	1.10	–0.42	0
	Liberal Democrats		39,480	0.84	+0.61	0
	Informed Medical Options		11,529	0.25	+0.25	0
	Public Education		4,150	0.09	+0.09	0
	Small Business		2,025	0.04	−0.03	0
	Socialist Alliance		1,464	0.03	+0.00	0
	Independents		411,682	8.76	+3.98	9	6
Formal votes			4,701,930	96.72	+0.18	–	–
Informal votes			159,218	3.28	−0.18	–	–
Total			4,861,148	–	–	93	–
Registered voters / turnout			5,521,688	88.04	−2.96	–	–
Two-party-preferred vote
	Labor		2,202,922	54.27	+6.29
	Coalition		1,856,227	45.73	–6.29

Seats changing hands

Italics denotes MPs who did not contest at this election.

Seat	Pre-election				Swing	Post-election
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Bankstown		One Nation	Tania Mihailuk^[c]	20.5	–0.1 to LIB	20.3	Jihad Dib	Labor
Camden		Liberal	Peter Sidgreaves	7.3	10.3	3.0	Sally Quinnell	Labor
Drummoyne		Independent	John Sidoti^[d]	13.6	–12.6 to ALP	1.0	Stephanie Di Pasqua	Liberal
East Hills		Liberal	Wendy Lindsay	0.1	1.8	1.7	Kylie Wilkinson	Labor
Heathcote^[e]		Liberal	Lee Evans	−1.7	8.3	9.9	Maryanne Stuart	Labor
Monaro		National	Nichole Overall	11.6	13.9	2.3	Steve Whan	Labor
Parramatta		Liberal	Geoff Lee	6.5	15.0	8.6	Donna Davis	Labor
Penrith		Liberal	Stuart Ayres	0.6	2.2	1.6	Karen McKeown	Labor
Riverstone		Liberal	Kevin Conolly	6.2	9.9	3.7	Warren Kirby	Labor
South Coast		Liberal	Shelley Hancock	10.6	14.3	3.8	Liza Butler	Labor
Wakehurst		Liberal	Brad Hazzard	21.9	N/A	4.5	Michael Regan	Independent
Wollondilly		Liberal	Nathaniel Smith	6.0	7.6	1.5	Judy Hannan	Independent

The statewide swing against the Coalition (and the swing to Labor) was highly concentrated in Sydney (particularly in Western Sydney) and on the South Coast. The Nationals, however, lost just one seat (Monaro) and had swings against them in several National strongholds on the Mid North Coast and in the New South Wales countryside. No seats north of the Central Coast changed hands. Both Coalition parties ran candidates in the electorates of Port Macquarie (held by National-turned-Liberal MP Leslie Williams) and Wagga Wagga (held by independent member Joe McGirr). In Port Macquarie (which is a conservative seat even by regional standards), both Coalition parties made the two-party-preferred contest and Williams was re-elected as a Liberal. In Wagga Wagga, McGirr easily defeated the Nationals in the two-party-preferred contest.

Ultimately, Labor gained four seats from the Coalition (Camden, Monaro, Parramatta and South Coast) due to swings of over 10% towards Labor and one seat (Riverstone) due to a swing of over 10% against the Coalition on first preference votes. On two-party-preferred measures, Labor received a swing against them in five of their own seats (Bankstown, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Shellharbour and Summer Hill), as well as in eight Coalition-held seats (Albury, Badgerys Creek, Bathurst, Coffs Harbour, Cootamundra, Dubbo, Myall Lakes and Upper Hunter). The swing in Liverpool was 9.0% to the Liberals, bucking the trend set by several other Sydney seats where swings against the Liberals were close to or larger than this.

Despite winning many federal seats in Sydney in 2022, only one teal independent (Judy Hannan in Wollondilly) won a seat at this election. This is likely due to optional preferential voting in New South Wales, meaning voters only need to number one box on the ballot paper (but can choose to number more), as preferences were vital for teal successes at the federal election. However, independents not affiliated with Climate 200 did win several seats; Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan gained the seat of Wakehurst from the Liberal Party and several other independents retained their seats (including the SFF-turned-independent members for Barwon, Orange and Murray, as well as the independent members of Lake Macquarie, Sydney and Wagga Wagga). Gareth Ward, a suspended Liberal MP turned independent, successfully held on to his seat of Kiama. The seat of Drummoyne (held by fellow suspended-Liberal-turned-independent John Sidoti, who did not seek re-election) was won by the Liberal challenger Stephanie Di Pasqua, technically retaining the seat for the Coalition,^[f] despite a 12.1% swing to Labor on two-party-preferred preferences.

All three seats held by the Greens were retained, although the party did not gain any seats. They did, however, finish second to Labor in Summer Hill. The seat of Balmain had a swing to Labor on two-party-preferred measures, while the Greens had swings to them in the two-party-preferred contests in their other two seats; Ballina (against the Nationals) and Newtown (against Labor).

One Nation, despite having a statewide swing to them, failed to win as many votes as predicted. However, the party finished second to Labor in Cessnock, a seat where the National Party candidate was disendorsed during the campaign for sexist and racist social media posts.^[69]

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party had a statewide swing against them. While they did formerly hold three seats (Barwon, Orange and Murray), the members for these seats defected and became independents over disagreements with the party's leader, Robert Borsak.

On 8 April, two weeks after the election, Liberal Jordan Lane was declared the winner in Ryde, by just 50 votes over Labor candidate Lyndal Howison.^[70] This was the last seat to be called, while also ending up as the most marginal seat post-election, sitting at just 0.01% for the Coalition. A recount was held on 15 April 2023, increasing the Liberal lead to 54 votes.^[71]

Legislative Council

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Council) § Results.[edit]

Legislative Council (STV) – Quota 209,858 – (CV)^{[72][73][74][75]}

Party			Votes	%	Swing	2023 seats	2019 seats	Total seats	Change
	Labor		1,690,445	36.61	+6.93	8	7	15	1
	Liberal/National joint ticket		1,374,857	29.78	–5.04	7	8	15	2
	Greens		419,346	9.08	–0.64	2	2	4	1
	One Nation		273,496	5.92	–0.97	1	2	3	1
	Legalise Cannabis		169,482	3.67	+3.67	1	0	1	1
	Liberal Democrats		162,755	3.53	+1.35	1	0	1	1
	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers		144,043	3.12	–2.42	1	1	2
	Animal Justice		101,183	2.19	+0.24	0	1	1	1
	Elizabeth Farrelly Independents		61,163	1.32	−0.51	0	0	0
	Group A^[g]		58,361	1.26	+1.26	0	0	0
	Sustainable Australia		42,902	0.93	–0.53	0	0	0
	Group U		35,888	0.78	+0.78	0	0	0
	Public Education		34,523	0.75	+0.75	0	0	0
	Informed Medical Options		21,362	0.46	+0.46	0	0	0
	Socialist Alliance		17,056	0.37	+0.05	0	0	0
	Group B^[h]		3,891	0.08	+0.08	0	0	0
	Group G		2,507	0.05	+0.05	0	0	0	1
	Group P – (Danny Lim)		1,356	0.03	+0.03	0	0	0
	Ungrouped		965	0.02	+0.02	0	0	0	1
	Group E		722	0.02	+0.02	0	0	0
	Group T		306	0.01	+0.01	0	0	0
	Group K^[i]		249	0.01	+0.01	0	0	0
Formal votes			4,616,858	94.31	+0.66	–	–	–	–
Informal votes			278,477	5.69	−0.66	–	–	–	–
Total			4,895,335	100.00	–	21	21	42	–
Registered voters / turnout			5,521,688	88.66	−0.78	–	–	–	–

Electoral pendulums

Pre-election pendulum

Main article: Pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

This is an excerpt of the pre-election pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.^[76] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
Marginal
East Hills	Wendy Lindsay	LIB	0.1%
Upper Hunter	Dave Layzell^[j]	NAT	0.5%^[k]
Penrith	Stuart Ayres	LIB	0.6%
Goulburn	Wendy Tuckerman	LIB	3.1%
Tweed	Geoff Provest	NAT	5.0%
Winston Hills	Mark Taylor	LIB	5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy	Melanie Gibbons	LIB	6.0%
Riverstone	Kevin Conolly	LIB	6.2%
Parramatta	Geoff Lee	LIB	6.5%
Oatley	Mark Coure	LIB	6.8%
Camden	Peter Sidgreaves	LIB	7.3%
Ryde	Victor Dominello	LIB	8.9%
Myall Lakes	Stephen Bromhead	NAT	9.3%
Badgerys Creek	Tanya Davies	LIB	9.7%
Safe
South Coast	Shelley Hancock	LIB	10.6%
Coffs Harbour	Gurmesh Singh	NAT	10.8%
Epping	Dominic Perrottet	LIB	11.3%
Monaro	Nichole Overall^[l]	NAT	11.6%^[m]
Kiama	Gareth Ward (IND)	LIB	12.0%
Terrigal	Adam Crouch	LIB	12.3%
Drummoyne	John Sidoti (IND)	LIB	13.6%

Labor seats (38)
Marginal
Kogarah	Chris Minns	ALP	0.1%
Leppington	new seat	ALP	1.5%
Heathcote	Lee Evans (LIB)	ALP	1.7%
Lismore	Janelle Saffin	ALP	2.0%
Coogee	Marjorie O'Neill	ALP	2.3%
Londonderry	Prue Car	ALP	3.0%
Bega	Michael Holland^[n]	ALP	5.1%^[o]
Strathfield	Jason Yat-Sen Li^[p]	ALP	5.2%^[q]
The Entrance	David Mehan	ALP	5.3%
Port Stephens	Kate Washington	ALP	5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford	Liesl Tesch	ALP	7.1%
Maroubra	Michael Daley	ALP	8.3%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray	Helen Dalton (IND)	SFF	2.8% v NAT
Ballina	Tamara Smith	GRN	4.9% v NAT
Barwon	Roy Butler (IND)	SFF	6.6% v NAT
Balmain	Jamie Parker	GRN	10.0% v ALP
Newtown	Jenny Leong	GRN	11.4% v ALP
Sydney	Alex Greenwich	IND	11.8% v LIB
Orange	Philip Donato (IND)	SFF	15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga	Joe McGirr	IND	15.5% v NAT
Lake Macquarie	Greg Piper	IND	23.2% v ALP

Post-election pendulum

Main article: Post-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

This is an excerpt of the post-election pendulum, based on the preliminary results of the election.

Labor seats (45)
Seat	Member	Party	Margin
Marginal
Penrith	Karen McKeown	ALP	1.6%
East Hills	Kylie Wilkinson	ALP	1.8%
Monaro	Steve Whan	ALP	2.4% v NAT
Camden	Sally Quinell	ALP	2.9%
South Coast	Liza Butler	ALP	3.7%
Riverstone	Warren Kirby	ALP	3.7%
Fairly safe
The Entrance	David Mehan	ALP	7.8%
Liverpool	Charishma Kaliyanda	ALP	8.4%
Parramatta	Donna Davis	ALP	8.5%
Leppington	Nathan Hagarty	ALP	8.7%
Prospect	Hugh McDermott	ALP	8.8%
Heathcote	Maryanne Stuart	ALP	9.9%
Safe
Bega	Michael Holland	ALP	10.4%
Cabramatta	Tri Vo	ALP	11.8%

Liberal/National seats (36)
Seat	Member	Party	Margin
Marginal
Ryde	Jordan Lane	LIB	0.1%^[r]
Holsworthy	Tina Ayyad	LIB	0.4%
Pittwater	Rory Amon	LIB	0.7% v IND
Oatley	Mark Coure	LIB	0.8%
Terrigal	Adam Crouch	LIB	1.2%
Goulburn	Wendy Tuckerman	LIB	1.3%
Drummoyne	Stephanie Di Pasqua	LIB	1.3%
Winston Hills	Mark Taylor	LIB	1.8%
Miranda	Eleni Petinos	LIB	2.3%
Willoughby	Tim James	LIB	2.6% v IND
Tweed	Geoff Provest	NAT	3.6%
Upper Hunter	Dave Layzell	NAT	3.8%
Manly	James Griffin	LIB	4.8% v IND
Epping	Dominic Perrottet	LIB	4.8%
Lane Cove	Anthony Roberts	LIB	5.5%
North Shore	Felicity Wilson	LIB	5.6% v IND

Crossbench seats (12)
Seat	Member	Party	Margin
Marginal
Wollondilly	Judy Hannan	IND	1.8% v LIB
Kiama	Gareth Ward	IND	1.8% v ALP
Balmain	Kobi Shetty	GRN	1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst	Michael Regan	IND	4.4% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina	Tamara Smith	GRN	7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown	Jenny Leong	GRN	12.1% v ALP
Sydney	Alex Greenwich	IND	15.8% v LIB
Murray	Helen Dalton	IND	16.0% v NAT
Barwon	Roy Butler	IND	16% v NAT
Very safe
Orange	Philip Donato	IND	22.0% v NAT
Wagga Wagga	Joe McGirr	IND	22.2% v NAT
Lake Macquarie	Greg Piper	IND	24.3% v ALP

Notes

1. Labor won the Liberal-held seat of Bega in February 2022, putting their total at 37 seats. In October 2022 Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party (later joining One Nation), bringing the total Labor seats back to 36.
2. Since the previous election the Liberal Party has had two sitting MPs resign from the party (John Sidoti, Gareth Ward) and lost the 2022 Bega by-election.
3. Mihailuk resigned from the Labor Party in 2022, becoming an independent. She later joined One Nation to contest the Legislative Council.
4. Sidoti was sacked from the Liberal Party in 2021 and was suspended from parliament for corruption.
5. Heathcote was notionally a marginal Labor seat following a redistribution.
6. Sidoti ran and won as the Liberal nominee in 2019 before being suspended.
7. Endorsed by unregistered Family First Party.
8. Endorsed by unregistered United Australia Party.
9. Endorsed by unregistered Socialist Equality Party.
10. Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
11. While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
12. Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
13. While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
14. Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
15. The margin used in the pendulum is Labor’s winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
16. Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
17. While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
18. Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.

Candidates and retiring MPs

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Retiring MPs.[edit]

The following members announced they would not be contesting the 2023 election:

Labor

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Labor.[edit]

• Walt Secord MLC – announced 19 August 2022^[77]
• Adam Searle MLC – lost preselection 15 September 2022^[78][79][80]
• Shaoquett Moselmane MLC – did not nominate for endorsement^[78][79][80]
• Guy Zangari MP (Fairfield) – announced 17 October 2022^[81]
• Paul Lynch MP (Liverpool) – not preselected November 2022^[82]
• Nick Lalich MP (Cabramatta) – announced 24 December 2022^[83][84]

Liberal

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Liberal.[edit]

• Shelley Hancock MP (South Coast) – announced 18 December 2021^[85]
• Gabrielle Upton MP (Vaucluse) – announced 6 July 2022^[86]
• Kevin Conolly MP (Riverstone) – announced 15 August 2022^[87]
• Victor Dominello MP (Ryde) – announced 17 August 2022^[88]
• Geoff Lee MP (Parramatta) – announced 22 August 2022^[89]
• Jonathan O'Dea MP (Davidson) – announced 6 September 2022^[90]
• Rob Stokes MP (Pittwater) – announced 30 September 2022^[91]
• David Elliott MP (Baulkham Hills) – announced 22 October 2022^[92]
• Brad Hazzard MP (Wakehurst) – announced 24 October 2022^[93]
• Matthew Mason-Cox MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022^[94]
• Lou Amato MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022^[94]
• Shayne Mallard MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022^[94]
• Peter Poulos MLC – disendorsed 18 February 2023^[95]
• Scott Farlow MLC – not preselected^[a]

Nationals

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Nationals.[edit]

• Stephen Bromhead^[b] MP (Myall Lakes) – announced 17 August 2022^[97]
• Chris Gulaptis MP (Clarence) – announced 22 August 2022^[98]
• Melinda Pavey MP (Oxley) – announced 28 August 2022^[99]

Independent

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Independent.[edit]

• Justin Field MLC – announced 17 October 2022^[100]
• John Sidoti MP (Drummoyne) – announced 24 November 2022^[101]

Other

This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Other.[edit]

• Jamie Parker MP (Balmain, Greens) – announced 14 October 2022^[102]
• Mark Pearson MLC (Animal Justice Party)^[103]

Polling

Voting intention

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the 2019 election. Local regression trends for each party.

Primary vote

 

Two party preferred

 

Opinion polls

Legislative Assembly polling

Date	Firm	Primary vote								TPP vote^[c]
		LIB	NAT	ALP	GRN	SFF	ONP	OTH	UND	L/NP	ALP
24 March 2023	Newspoll^[104]	35%*		38%	11%	—	—	16%	—	45.5%	54.5%
22 March 2023	Freshwater Strategy^[105]	37%*		37%	10%	—	—	16%	—	47%	53%
19 March 2023	Resolve Strategic^[106]	38%*		38%	8%	—	—	16%	—	—	—
10–14 March 2023	Roy Morgan^[107]	34%*		34%	13%	—	2%	17%	—	46.5%	53.5%
24–28 February 2023	Roy Morgan^[108]	32.5%*		33.5%	11%	—	8.5%	14.5%	—	47.5%	52.5%
28 February 2023	Resolve Strategic^[109]	32%*		38%	11%	—	—	20%	—	—	—
27 February 2023	Freshwater Strategy^[110]	37%*		39%	10%	1%	—	13%	—	47%	53%
26 February 2023	Newspoll^[111]	37%*		36%	12%	—	—	15%	—	48%	52%
21 February 2023	Roy Morgan^[112]	35%*		32.5%	9.5%	1.5%	6.5%	15%^[d]	—	48%	52%
31 January 2023	Roy Morgan^[113]	33.5%*		33.5%	12%	1%	4.5%	15.5%^[e]	—	45%	55%
22 January 2023	Resolve Strategic^[114]	34%*		37%	12%	2%	—	16%	—	—	—
14–17 January 2023	YouGov^[115]	33%*		39%	11%	—	—	17%	—	44%	56%
20 December 2022	Roy Morgan^[116]	37%*		35%	11.5%	1.5%	5%	10%^[f]	—	48%	52%
16 November 2022	Private polling^[117]^[g]	33%	4%	40%	9%	1%	6%	7%^[h]	—	—	—
October 2022	Roy Morgan^[116]	32%*		36.5%	9.5%	1%	5.5%	13%^[i]	—	43%	57%
30 October 2022	Resolve Strategic^[118]	35%*		38%	11%	1%	—	15%	—	—	—
13–16 October 2022	Freshwater Strategy^[119]	36%*		37%	11%	1%	—	15%	—	46%	54%
September 2022	Roy Morgan^[116]	34%*		34%	12.5%	1%	3.5%	15.5%^[j]	—	47%	53%
23 September 2022	Newspoll^[120]	35%*		40%	12%	—	—	13%	—	46%	54%
18 September 2022	Resolve Strategic^[121]	30%*		43%	10%	2%	—	15%	—	—	—
12 September 2022	Essential^[122]	36.4%*		32%	8.5%	—	—	—	13%	—	—
2 July 2022	Essential^[123]	37%*		33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20 February 2022	Resolve Strategic^[124]	37%*		34%	8%	2%	—	19%	—	—	—
25 November 2021	Resolve Strategic^[125]	41%*		31%	10%	2%	—	16%	—	—	—
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier
23 September 2021	Resolve Strategic^[126]	41%*		30%	11%	2%	—	16%	—	—	—
18 July 2021	Resolve Strategic^[127]	43%*		28%	12%	1%	—	16%	—	—	—
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021	Resolve Strategic^[128]	44%*		28%	12%	4%	—	12%	—	—	—
March 2021	Redbridge^[129]^[130]^[131]	37.0%	3.1%	23.9%	6.7%	0.8%	4.3%	5.3%	18.9%	59%	41%^[132]
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election		32.0%	9.6%	33.3%	9.6%	3.5%	1.1%	11.0%	–	52.0%	48.0%
22 March 2019	Newspoll	41%*		35%	10%	—	—	14%	—	51%	49%^[k]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.^[133]
Farlow is set to assume the casual vacancy created by Natasha Maclaren-Jones.^[96] Bromhead died on 16 March 2023. Resolve Strategic and Essential do not calculate TPP vote. "teal independents" 0.5%, Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties/independents 11.5% UAP 1.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties 10.5% Animal Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis 0.5%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Independents 5.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2% Polling was conducted by an unnamed industry group. Includes "teal independents" at 4% Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Liberal Democrats 1%, UAP 1%, Independents 8.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Other parties 1.5% Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 2%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 1%, Independents 7.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2% Preference allocation based on previous election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Graphical summary

Better Premier

Perrottet approval rating

Minns approval rating

Polling

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*

Date	Firm	Better Premier			Perrottet		Minns
		Perrottet	Minns		Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
24 March 2023	Newspoll^[104]	39%	41%		44%	47%	47%	33%
22 March 2023	Freshwater Strategy^[105]	46%	40%		not asked		not asked
21 March 2023	Essential^[134]	36%	33%		not asked		not asked
19 March 2023	Resolve Strategic^[106]	40%	34%		52%	32%	46%	26%
28 February 2023	Resolve Strategic^[109]	38%	34%		45%	40%	43%	28%
27 February 2023	Freshwater Strategy^[110]	46%	34%		not asked		not asked
26 February 2023	Newspoll^[111]	43%	33%		50%	41%	41%	33%
21 February 2023	Essential^[135]	not asked			45%	42%	37%	26%
1–6 February 2023	SEC Newgate^[136]	34%	27%		not asked			not asked
7 February 2023	Essential^[137]	not asked			51%	33%	38%	25%
24 January 2023	Essential^[138]	not asked			47%	36%	38%	27%
22 January 2023	Resolve Strategic^[114]	33%	29%		not asked			not asked
16 November 2022	Private polling^[117]	not asked			39%	47%	42%	27%
30 October 2022	Resolve Strategic^[118]	30%	29%		not asked		not asked
13–16 October 2022	Freshwater Strategy^[119]	38%	41%		37%	35%	26%	15%
23 September 2022	Newspoll^[120]	39%	35%		47%	41%	42%	27%
18 September 2022	Resolve Strategic^[121]	28%	28%		not asked		not asked
2 July 2022	Essential^[123]	not asked			49%	35%	39%	22%
20 February 2022	Resolve Strategic^[124]	29%	32%		not asked		not asked
25 November 2021	Resolve Strategic^[125]	34%	23%		not asked		not asked
20–24 October 2021	Essential^[139]	not asked			47%	28%	not asked
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier		Berejiklian	Minns		Berejiklian		Minns
23 September 2021	Resolve Strategic^[126]	48%	21%		not asked		not asked
15–18 September 2021	Newspoll^[140]	not asked			56%	40%	not asked
28 July 2021	Utting Research^[141]	not asked			56%	33%	not asked
18 July 2021	Resolve Strategic^[127]	55%	16%		not asked		not asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader		Berejiklian	McKay		Berejiklian		McKay
16 May 2021	Resolve Strategic^[128]	57%	17%		50%	17%	13%	21%
11–16 November 2020	Essential^[142]	not asked			75%	17%	not asked
28 October – 2 November 2020	Essential^[143]	not asked			68%	21%	not asked
21–23 October 2020	Ipsos^[144]^[145]	58%	19%		64%	16%	22%	25%
14–19 October 2020	Essential^[146]	not asked			67%	22%	not asked
16–17 October 2020	YouGov^[147]	not asked			68%	26%	not asked
15–18 July 2020	Newspoll^[148]	not asked			64%	30%	not asked
24–28 June 2020	Newspoll^[149]	not asked			68%	26%	not asked
21–26 April 2020	Newspoll^[150]	not asked			69%	23%	not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader		Berejiklian	Daley		Berejiklian		Daley
23 March 2019 election		–	–		–	–	–	–
22 March 2019	Newspoll	43%	35%		43%	42%	32%	49%
19 March 2019	YouGov–Galaxy^[151]	38%	36%		not asked
10 March 2019	Newspoll^[152]	41%	34%		44%	38%	37%	38%
10 March 2019	UComms–ReachTEL^[153]^[154]	46.7%	53.3%		not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". † Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.^[133]

Electorate polling

Date	Brand	Electorate	Voting intention						2cp vote
			L/NP	ALP	GRN	PHON	SFF	IND	L/NP	ALP	IND
March 2023	Freshwater Strategy	Riverstone	—	—	—	—	—	—	46%	54%	—
March 2023	Climate 200	North Shore	—	—	—	—	—	—	50.7%	—	49.3%
27 February - 2 March 2023	Redbridge Group	Parramatta	—	—	—	—	—	—	46%	54%	—
		Penrith	—	—	—	—	—	—	51%	49%	—
January 2023	Internal polling^[155]	Holsworthy	—	—	—	—	—	—	51%	49%	—
		Londonderry	—	—	—	—	—	—	49%	51%	—
		Penrith	—	—	—	—	—	—	50%	50%	—
		Riverstone	—	—	—	—	—	—	52%	48%	—
		Winston Hills	—	—	—	—	—	—	45%	55%	—
March 2023	Sky News^[156]^[157]	Goulburn	35%	33%	9%	5%	13%	—	—	—	—
		Hornsby	37%	21%	—	15%	—	—	58%	42%	—
		Leppington	32%	40%	7%	16%	—	—	48%	52%	—
		North Shore	34%	10%	12%	—	—	28%	46%	—	54%
		Penrith	—	—	—	—	—	—	51%	49%	—
		Wakehurst	41%	11%	3%	—	—	37%	50%	—	50%
		Winston Hills	—	—	—	—	—	—	59%	41%	—

Newspaper endorsements

In the lead-up to elections, many newspapers publish editorial endorsements. The Coalition received support from several newspapers during the 2023 campaign which has been the case since the 2011 election. Nine Entertainment's Sydney Morning Herald endorsed the Coalition, stating that they believed the Coalition leader, Dominic Perrottet, should be given the opportunity to demonstrate his abilities to the people of NSW. The Daily Telegraph did not publish an editorial, but one of its columnists, Vikki Campion, warned that a Labor victory could result in "wasted money and efforts on feasibility studies, planning, and designs for safer roads and better dams." The Australian and The Australian Financial Review, both national mastheads, also endorsed the Coalition, with the latter citing their belief that the Coalition offered the best chance for getting "New South Wales through the national economic downturn and into a new phase of growth." Meanwhile, the Illawarra Mercury did not explicitly endorse a party but emphasised to readers, "there's a very real chance of a change of government on Saturday, and you might want to play your part."^{[158][159][160][161][162]}

Newspaper	City	Owner	Endorsement
Illawarra Mercury	Wollongong	Australian Community Media		Change of government^[159]
The Daily Telegraph	Sydney	News Corp		Coalition^[158]
The Australian	Sydney	News Corp		Coalition^[160]
The Australian Financial Review	Sydney	Nine Entertainment		Coalition^[161]
The Sydney Morning Herald	Sydney	Nine Entertainment		Coalition^[162]

See also

• Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election

References

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Notes