2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[3] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[4]

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout	71% ^[1]
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 16 0 Popular vote 2,804,040 2,649,852 Percentage 50.62% 47.84%
County Results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%
Municipality Results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90-100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90-100% Tie
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.^[5] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.^[6] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.

Biden ultimately carried Michigan by a 2.78% margin. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters.^[7] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but it was not enough to win. Michigan marks Biden's strongest performance in a state that Trump carried in 2016, even voting to the left of Nevada which Trump failed to carry in said election.

Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay or Gogebic Counties, the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Lake County, the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Calhoun, Isabella, Manistee, Shiawassee, or Van Buren Counties, and the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 to win without winning Macomb or Eaton Counties, respectively.

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.

Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.6% more Republican than the nation-at-large.

Primary elections

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.^[8]

2020 Michigan Republican primary^[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	640,552	93.7%	73
Uncommitted	32,743	4.8%	0
Bill Weld	6,099	0.9%	0
Mark Sanford (withdrawn)	4,258	0.6%	0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)	4,067	0.6%	0
Total	683,431	100%	73

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.^[10]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)

2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary^[11]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[12]
Joe Biden	840,360	52.93	73
Bernie Sanders	576,926	36.34	52
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)^[a]	73,464	4.63
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)^[a]	26,148	1.65
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)^[b]	22,462	1.41
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)^[b]	11,018	0.69
Tulsi Gabbard	9,461	0.60
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)^[c]	2,380	0.15
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)^[b]	1,732	0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)^[c]	1,536	0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	840	0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)	757	0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	719	0.05
John Delaney (withdrawn)^[d]	464	0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	306	0.02
Uncommitted	19,106	1.20
Total	1,587,679	100%	125

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report^[13]	Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections^[14]	Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[15]	Lean D (flip)
Politico^[16]	Lean D (flip)
RCP^[17]	Tossup
Niskanen^[18]	Likely D (flip)
CNN^[19]	Lean D (flip)
The Economist^[20]	Likely D (flip)
CBS News^[21]	Lean D (flip)
270towin^[22]	Lean D (flip)
ABC News^[23]	Lean D (flip)
NPR^[24]	Lean D (flip)
NBC News^[25]	Lean D (flip)
538^[26]	Solid D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided ^[e]	Margin
270 to Win	October 22 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	49.9%	44.4%	5.7%	Biden +5.5
Real Clear Politics	October 29 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	50.0%	45.8%	4.2%	Biden +4.2
FiveThirtyEight	until November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	51.2%	43.2%	5.6%	Biden +7.9
Average			50.4%	44.5%	5.1%	Biden +5.9

2020 polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[f]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2	4,549 (LV)	± 2%	46%^[g]	52%	-	-	–	–
Research Co.	Oct 31 – Nov 1	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	43%	50%	-	-	2%^[h]	5%
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 29 – Nov 1	383 (LV)	± 5.01%	44%	51%	3%	1%	–	1%
Swayable November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Oct 27 – Nov 1	413 (LV)	± 6.5%	45%	54%	1%	0%	–	–
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 27 – Nov 1	654 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%^[i]	53%	1%	0%	2%^[j]	–
				42%^[k]	52%	-	-	3%^[l]	3%
				45%^[m]	53%	-	-	2%^[n]	–
Trafalgar Group	Oct 30–31	1,033 (LV)	± 2.97%	48%	46%	2%	-	1%	3%
AtlasIntel	Oct 30–31	686 (LV)	± 4%	46%	48%	-	-	6%	–
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness^[A]	Oct 30–31	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	49%	2%	-	–	3%
Morning Consult	Oct 22–31	1,736 (LV)	± 2.0%	44.5%	52%	-	-	–	–
Emerson College	Oct 29–30	700 (LV)	± 3.4%	45%^[o]	52%	-	-	3%^[p]	–
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan^[B]	Oct 29–30	745 (V)	± 3.6%	44%	54%	1%	0%	–	1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart	Oct 25–30	993 (LV)	–	39%	53%	-	-	8%^[q]	–
CNN/SSRS	Oct 23–30	907 (LV)	± 3.8%	41%	53%	2%	1%	1%^[r]	2%
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS	Oct 29	817 (LV)	± 3.43%	45%	52%	1%	1%	0%^[s]	0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 27–29	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%^[i]	51%	-	-	3%	2%
				42%^[t]	53%	-	-	3%	2%
				45%^[u]	50%	-	-	3%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 26–29	1,212 (LV)	–	41%	54%	1%	0%	1%	4%
EPIC-MRA	Oct 25–28	600 (LV)	± 4%	41%	48%	-	-	5%^[v]	6%^[w]
Trafalgar Group	Oct 25–28	1,058 (LV)	± 2.93%	49%	47%	2%	-	1%^[x]	1%
Kiaer Research	Oct 21–28	669 (LV)	± 5.6%	41%	54%	-	-	2%^[y]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	7,541 (LV)	–	45%	53%	-	-	–	–
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS	Oct 25–27	759 (LV)	± 3.56%	42%	52%	3%	0%	0%^[z]	2%
Swayable	Oct 23–26, 2020	394 (LV)	± 6.7%	40%	59%	2%	0%	–	–
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 23–26	856 (LV)	± 3.8%	41%	49%	2%	1%	0%^[aa]	6%^[w]
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 20–26	652 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%^[i]	53%	1%	0%	2%^[j]	–
				43%^[k]	52%	-	-	3%^[l]	3%
Wick Surveys	Oct 24–25	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	48%	-	-	–	–
Glengariff Group/Detroit News	Oct 23–25	600 (LV)	± 4%	42%	49%	-	-	2%^[ab]	4%
ABC/Washington Post	Oct 20–25	789 (LV)	± 4%	44%	51%	3%	0%	0%^[ac]	1%
Gravis Marketing	Oct 24	679 (LV)	± 3.8%	42%	55%	-	-	–	3%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC^[C]	Oct 21–22	804 (V)	–	43%	50%	-	-	–	6%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison	Oct 13–21	681 (LV)	± 4.2%	42%	52%	-	-	5%^[ad]	–
Citizen Data	Oct 17–20	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	41%	50%	1%	0%	1%	7%
Fox News	Oct 17–20	1,032 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	52%	3%	0%	2%^[ae]	3%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 14–20	686 (LV)	± 4.3%	44%^[i]	52%	2%	0%	2%^[j]	–
				44%^[k]	51%	-	-	3%^[l]	2%
Morning Consult	Oct 11–20	1,717 (LV)	± 2.4%	44%	52%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 16–19	718 (LV)^[af]	–	44%	51%	-	-	–	–
EPIC-MRA	Oct 15–19	600 (LV)	± 4%	39%	48%	-	-	5%^[ag]	8%^[w]
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS	Oct 18	900 (LV)	± 3.27%	41%	51%	3%	1%	1%^[x]	3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC^[D]	Oct 15–18	1,034 (LV)	± 2.97%	47%	45%	3%	2%	2%^[h]	2%
Data For Progress	Oct 15–18	830 (LV)	± 3.4%	45%	50%	2%	0%	–	3%
Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News	Oct 11–18	2,851 (LV)	± 2.5%	49%	45%	-	-	2%	3%
HarrisX/The Hill	Oct 12–15	1,289 (LV)	–	43%	54%	-	-	–	–
Trafalgar Group	Oct 11–14	1,025 (LV)	± 2.97%	47%	46%	3%	2%	2%^[h]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 10–13	972 (LV)	–	42%^[af]	51%	1%	0%	–	–
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 8–13	800 (LV)	–	42%^[i]	48%	2%	1%	1%	5%
				39%^[t]	51%	2%	1%	1%	5%
				44%^[u]	46%	2%	1%	1%	5%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 7–13	620 (LV)	± 4.5%	44%^[i]	51%	2%	1%	2%^[ah]	–
				43%^[k]	51%	-	-	3%^[l]	2%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press	Oct 8–12	600 (LV)	± 4%	39%	48%	-	-	4%^[ai]	9%^[w]
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising^[E]	Oct 8–11	543 (LV)	± 4.6%	43%	52%	-	-	4%^[aj]	2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 6–11	614 (LV)	± 4.6%	40%	48%	1%	1%	1%^[ak]	8%^[w]
Morning Consult	Oct 2–11	1,710 (LV)	± 2.4%	44%	51%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 9–10	827 (LV)	–	41%^[af]	51%	2%	1%	–	–
YouGov/CBS	Oct 6–9	1,190 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	52%	-	-	2%^[al]	0%
Baldwin Wallace University	Sep 30 – Oct 8	1,134 (LV)	± 3.2%	43%	50%	1%	1%	0%^[am]	4%
Emerson College	Oct 6–7	716 (LV)	± 3.6%	43%^[o]	54%	-	-	2%^[h]	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 4–6	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	50%	1%	0%	1%^[an]	6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum^[F]	Oct 3–6	800 (LV)	± 3.46%	44%^[o]	52%	-	-	2%	3%
Ipsos/Reuters	Sep 29 – Oct 6	709 (LV)	± 4.2%	43%	51%	-	-	2%^[ao]	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 2–4	676 (LV)	–	43%	51%	-	-	–	–
Glengariff Group/Detroit News	Sep 30 – Oct 3	600 (LV)	± 4%	39%	48%	-	-	5%^[ap]	7%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan^[B]	Sep 30 – Oct 1	746 (V)	–	44%	50%	2%	1%	–	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30	3,297 (LV)	–	44%	53%	-	-	–	3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC^[D]	Sep 26–28	1,042 (LV)	± 2.95%	47%	49%	2%	0%	1%^[x]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Sep 23–26	785 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	51%	1%	0%	0%^[aq]	6%
Marist College/NBC	Sep 19–23	799 (LV)	± 4.3%	44%	52%	-	-	1%	3%
ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare^[G]	Sep 17–23	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	52%	-	-	–	–
Trafalgar Group	Sep 20–22	1,015 (LV)	± 2.99%	46.7%	46.0%	2.1%	0.8%	1.2%^[ar]	3.2%
Baldwin Wallace University	Sep 9–22	1,001 (LV)	± 3.6%	42%	50%	1%	0%	1%^[as]	6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research Center/Wisconsin State Journal	Sep 10–21	641 (LV)	–	45%	51%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Sep 18–20	568 (LV)	–	43%	51%	-	-	–	–
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign^[H]	Sep 17–19	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Data for Progress (D)	Sep 14–19	455 (LV)	± 4.6%	42%^[i]	48%	1%	0%	–	9%
				44%^[at]	50%	-	-	–	6%
MRG	Sep 14–19	600 (LV)	± 4%	41%	46%	-	-	8%^[au]	5%
Ipsos/Reuters	Sep 11–16	637 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	49%	-	-	2%^[ao]	4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising^[E]	Sep 11–15	517 (RV)	–	42%	53%	-	-	3%^[p]	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Sep 12–14	930 (LV)	± 3.21%	39%	49%	2%	1%	0%^[aq]	9%
EPIC-MRA	Sep 10–15	600 (LV)	± 4%	40%	48%	-	-	5%^[ag]	7%^[w]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP	Aug 28 – Sep 8	1,600 (LV)	± 2.5%	43%	50%	-	-	1%^[av]	5%
Morning Consult	Aug 29 – Sep 7	1,455 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	42%^[aw]	52%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Sep 4–6	876 (LV)	–	43%	49%	-	-	7%^[ax]	–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1]	Sep 2–3	1,000 (LV)	± 3%	44%^[o]	53%	-	-	3%^[ay]	–
Glengariff Group	Sep 1–3	600 (LV)	± 4%	42%	47%	-	-	4%^[az]	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Aug 30 – Sep 3	967 (LV)	± 3.15%	40%	51%	1%	0%	1%^[an]	7%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum^[F]	Aug 30 – Sep 2	802 (LV)	± 3.46%	44%^[o]	51%	2%	1%	0%^[ba]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31	2,962 (LV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	3%
Morning Consult	Aug 21–30	1,424 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	42%	52%	-	-	–	–
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan^[B]	Aug 28–29	897 (V)	–	44%	48%	3%	1%	–	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Aug 21–23	809 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
Trafalgar Group	Aug 14–23	1,048 (LV)	± 2.98%	47%	45%	3%	-	1%^[bb]	4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	Aug 16–19	812 (LV)	–	38%	50%	1%	1%	1%^[bc]	9%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising^[E]	Aug 13–17	631 (RV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	3%^[p]	1%
Morning Consult	Aug 7–16	1,212 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC^[D]	Aug 11–15	600 (LV)	–	41%	52%	-	-	–	7%
Change Research/CNBC	Aug 7–9	413 (LV)	–	43%	48%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison	Jul 27 – Aug 6	761 (RV)	± 5.1%	43%	47%	-	-	5%^[bd]	6%
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC^[I]	Jul 30 – Aug 4	1,245 (LV)	–	43%	52%	-	-	–	–
David Binder Research	Jul 30–31	200 (LV)	–	41%	51%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31	3,083 (LV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	2%
EPIC-MRA	Jul 25–30	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	40%	51%	3%	-	-	6%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan^[B]	Jul 28–29	876 (V)	–	43%	49%	-	-	6%^[be]	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 24–26	413 (LV)	–	42%	46%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26	1,320 (LV)	± 2.7%	42%	52%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS	Jul 21–24	1,156 (LV)	± 3.4%	42%	48%	-	-	2%^[bf]	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jul 19–24	811 (LV)	–	37%	49%	1%	1%	2%^[bg]	10%
CNN/SSRS	Jul 18–24	927 (RV)	± 3.8%	40%	52%	-	-	5%^[bh]	2%
Gravis Marketing	Jul 22	754 (RV)	± 3.6%	42%	51%	-	-	–	7%
Fox News	Jul 18–20	756 (RV)	± 3.5%	40%	49%	-	-	4%^[bi]	7%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC^[D]	Jul 13–16	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	53%	-	-	–	7%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project^[J]	Jul 11–16	600 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	45%	-	-	–	5%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 10–12	824 (LV)	–	42%	48%	-	-	–	–
Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)^[K]	Jul 9–10	1,041 (V)	± 3.2%	44%	51%	-	-	–	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30	1,238 (LV)	–	46%	51%	-	-	–	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 26–28	699 (LV)^[af]	–	43%	48%	-	-	–	–
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)^[B]	Jun 26–27	1,237 (V)	–	44%	50%	-	-	5%^[bj]	1%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	Jun 17–20	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	38%	56%	-	-	2%^[bk]	7%
Trafalgar Group	Jun 16–18	1,101 (LV)	± 2.95%	45%	46%	-	-	5%^[ag]	4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Jun 8–17	610 (RV)	± 4.3%	36%	47%	-	-	8%^[bl]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jun 14–16	826 (LV)	± 3.41%	36%	47%	2%	1%	2%^[bm]	12%
	Jun 11–16	1,000 (A)	–	33%	49%	-	-	4%^[bn]	14%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 12–14	353 (LV)^[af]	–	45%	47%	-	-	3%^[bo]	–
TIPP/American Greatness PAC June 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine^[A]	Jun 9–12	859 (LV)	–	38%	51%	-	-	4%^[bp]	7%
Kiaer Research	May 31 – Jun 7	543 (LV)	± 6.4%	35%	50%	-	-	6%^[bq]	8%
EPIC-MRA	May 31 – Jun 4	600 (LV)	± 4%	39%	55%	-	-	–	–
EPIC-MRA	May 30 – Jun 3	600 (LV)	± 4%	41%	53%	-	-	–	6%^[w]
Change Research/CNBC	May 29–31	620 (LV)^[af]	–	46%	48%	-	-	3%	3%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan^[B]	May 29–30	1,582 (V)	± 2.5%	44%	50%	-	-	4%^[br]	2%
Morning Consult	May 17–26	1,325 (LV)	–	42%	50%	-	-	–	–
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care^[L]	May 18–19	1,234 (V)	± 2.8%	45%	51%	-	-	–	5%
Change Research/Crooked Media	May 11–17	3,070 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 10–14	970 (LV)	± 3.2%	39%	47%	-	-	3%^[bs]	11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	May 1–5	600 (LV)	± 3%	42%	50%	-	-	–	8%
Public Policy Polling^[M]	Apr 28–29	1,270 (V)	–	42%	50%	-	-	–	8%
Public Policy Polling^[N]	Apr 20–21	1,277 (RV)	–	44%	51%	-	-	–	5%
Fox News	Apr 18–21	801 (RV)	± 3.5%	41%	49%	-	-	3%	6%
Ipsos/Reuters	Apr 15–20	612 (RV)	± 5.0%	38%	46%	-	-	–	–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	Apr 9–11	600 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	-	-	–	–
Hart Research/CAP Action^[O]	Apr 6–8	303 (RV)	–	41%	50%	-	-	4%	5%
Public Policy Polling	Mar 31 – Apr 1	1,019 (RV)	± 3.1%	45%	48%	-	-	–	7%
SPRY Strategies	Mar 30 – Apr 1	602 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	-	-	–	8%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes	Mar 17–25	997 (RV)	± 3.7%	42%	47%	-	-	–	11%
Change Research	Mar 21–23	510 (LV)	–	47%	48%	-	-	5%
Marketing Resource Group	Mar 16–20	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	44%	-	-	9%^[bt]	6%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	Mar 12–16	600 (RV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
AtlasIntel	Mar 7–9	1,100 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	44%	-	-	10%	–
YouGov/Yahoo News	Mar 6–8	566 (RV)	–	41%	45%	-	-	6%^[bu]	7%
Monmouth University	Mar 5–8	977 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	48%	-	-	2%	9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine	Mar 5–7	550 (RV)	± 5.3%	46%	44%	-	-	–	–
YouGov	Feb 11–20	1,249 (RV)	± 4.0%	43%	47%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac University May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Feb 12–18	845 (RV)	± 3.4%	43%	47%	-	-	6%^[bv]	3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute	Feb 6–18	500 (RV)	–	43%	43%	-	-	–	14%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[4]	Jan 9–12	600 (LV)	± 4%	44%	50%	-	-	–	6%
Glengariff Group Inc.	Jan 3–7	600 (LV)	± 4%	43%	50%	-	-	–	5%

2017–2019 polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[f]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other	Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine	Dec 3–5, 2019	551 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%	41%	8% ^[bw]	5% ^[w]
Emerson College	Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019	1,051 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	56%	–	–
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 13–25, 2019	501 (LV)	± 5.1%	44%	45%	–	–
Target Insyght	Sep 24–26, 2019	800 (LV)	–	35%	54%	–	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Sep 7–9, 2019	529 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	42%	17%	–
EPIC-MRA	Aug 17–21, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	51%	–	8%
	Jul 14–17, 2019	820 (RV)	± 4.0%	36%	49%	5%^[bx]	10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Jun 11–13, 2019	587 (LV)	± 4.2%	43%	46%	11%	–
EPIC-MRA	Jun 8–12, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	52%	–	7%
Glengariff Group	May 28–30, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	53%	–	4%
WPA Intelligence	Apr 27–30, 2019	200 (LV)	± 6.9%	42%	45%	–	12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Mar 19–21, 2019	530 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	45%	4%	–
Emerson College	Mar 7–10, 2019	743 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	54%	–	–
Glengariff Group April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine	Jan 24–26, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	40%	53%	–	5%
EPIC-MRA	Apr 28–30, 2018	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	52%	–	9%
Zogby Analytics	Sep 2017	800 (V)	–	35%	52%	–	13%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 47% 7%^[by] 4% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 41% 46% – 13% EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[5] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% – 9% Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 47% – 10% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8% ^[bw] 7% ^[w] Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Cory Booker (D) Other Undecided Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%^[bz] 16% Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 41% 47% – – Quinnipiac University May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 45% 8%^[ca] 3% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 44% – 15% EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[6] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 47% – 10% Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% – 10% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8% ^[cb] 6% ^[w] Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%^[bz] 16% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 40% 16% – Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 47% – 11% Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11% Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 6%^[cc] 14% Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 9% Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – – Glengariff Group April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% – 10% Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% – – Quinnipiac University May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 45% 6%^[bv] 4% Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% – – Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other Undecided Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 39% 8% – Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 45% – 13% Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 12–16, 2020 600 (RV) – 44% 49% – – AtlasIntel Mar 7–9, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11% – YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 566 (RV) – 42% 43% 7%^[cd] 8% Monmouth University Mar 5–8, 2020 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 46% 2% 9% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7, 2020 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 48% 41% – – YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 48% – – Quinnipiac University May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 7%^[by] 3% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 42% 46% – 12% EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[7] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 50% – 5% Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 49% – 5% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 42% 6% ^[ce] 5% ^[w] Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 57% – – NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 42% 46% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17% – EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8% Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 47% 4%^[cf] 11% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 44% 12% – Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 5% Tulchin Research (D)^[P] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 52% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 6% – Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% – – Glengariff Group April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 6% Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 36% 54% – 10% Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 46% – – Quinnipiac University May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 45% 7%^[cg] 4% EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[8] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% – 7% Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% – 8% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 8% ^[ch] 6% ^[w] Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54% – – NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 40% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17% – EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% – 8% Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 6%^[cc] 12% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 41% 16% – Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% – 9% Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – – Glengariff Group April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 10% Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 37% 46% – 17% Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 51% – 14%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Joe Biden (D) Justin Amash (L) Undecided Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 10% 6% with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Joe Biden (D) Howard Schultz (I) Undecided Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% 4% – with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Howard Schultz (I) Undecided Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% 6% – with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 43.2%^[ci] 54.0% 2.9%^[cj] Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 50% 11% Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8-20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 36.4%^[ci] 50.3% 13.3% KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 767 (RV) ± 4% 27% 39% 25% with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[f] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided EPIC-MRA Jul 25 - 30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 37% 49%^[ck] 14% EPIC-MRA May 31 – Jun 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 33% 51%^[ck] 13%^[cl] EPIC-MRA[9] May 30 – Jun 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 38% 51%^[ck] 8%^[cl] EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[10] Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 34% 44%^[ck] 22%^[cm] EPIC-MRA Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 32% 45%^[cn] 23%^[co] EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Mar 3–7, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 49%^[cp] 20%^[cq] [11] Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 53% 15%^[cr]

General election results

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan^[27][28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	2,804,040	50.62%	+3.35%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	2,649,852	47.84%	+0.34%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	60,381	1.09%	-2.50%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	13,718	0.25%	-0.82%
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	7,235	0.13%	N/A
	Natural Law	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	2,986	0.05%	N/A
	Write-in	Brian T. Carroll	963	0.02%	+0.01%
	Write-in	Jade Simmons	89	<0.01%	N/A
	Write-in	Tom Hoefling	32	<0.01%	N/A
	Write-in		6	<0.01%	N/A
Total votes			5,539,302	100.00%

By county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Other votes		Total votes
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Alcona	30.32%	2,142	68.63%	4,848	0.71%	50	0.34%	23	7,063
Alger	39.98%	2,053	58.70%	3,014	0.80%	41	0.53%	27	5,135
Allegan	36.39%	24,449	61.60%	41,392	1.40%	943	0.61%	298	67,082
Alpena	35.32%	6,000	62.91%	10,686	1.30%	220	0.48%	81	16,987
Antrim	37.32%	5,960	61.03%	9,748	1.18%	189	0.47%	75	15,972
Arenac	31.38%	2,774	67.07%	5,928	1.10%	97	0.45%	40	8,839
Baraga	36.52%	1,478	62.07%	2,512	0.77%	31	0.64%	26	4,047
Barry	32.80%	11,797	65.27%	23,471	1.33%	479	0.60%	214	35,961
Bay	43.34%	26,151	54.90%	33,125	1.14%	688	0.61%	369	60,333
Benzie	44.69%	5,480	53.83%	6,601	1.04%	128	0.43%	53	12,262
Berrien	45.34%	37,438	52.71%	43,519	1.29%	1,062	0.66%	546	82,565
Branch	29.94%	6,159	68.36%	14,064	1.05%	216	0.65%	134	20,573
Calhoun	43.57%	28,877	54.65%	36,221	1.34%	890	0.44%	293	66,281
Cass	34.79%	9,130	63.63%	16,699	1.09%	286	0.48%	127	26,242
Charlevoix	40.75%	6,939	57.79%	9,841	0.94%	160	0.53%	90	17,030
Cheboygan	34.22%	5,437	64.10%	10,186	1.23%	196	0.45%	71	15,890
Chippewa	37.62%	6,648	60.44%	10,681	1.32%	233	0.62%	109	17,671
Clare	31.91%	5,199	66.65%	10,861	0.99%	162	0.45%	73	16,295
Clinton	45.84%	21,968	52.37%	25,098	1.38%	659	0.42%	202	47,927
Crawford	33.99%	2,672	64.71%	5,087	0.88%	69	0.42%	33	7,861
Delta	35.93%	7,606	62.39%	13,207	1.18%	249	0.50%	105	21,167
Dickinson	32.46%	4,744	65.80%	9,617	1.28%	187	0.46%	67	14,615
Eaton	48.66%	31,299	49.43%	31,798	1.39%	895	0.52%	335	64,327
Emmet	43.50%	9,662	54.64%	12,135	1.28%	284	0.58%	128	22,209
Genesee	53.84%	119,390	44.51%	98,714	1.01%	2,234	0.64%	1,426	221,764
Gladwin	30.95%	4,524	67.69%	9,893	0.97%	142	0.38%	56	14,615
Gogebic	43.14%	3,570	55.58%	4,600	0.81%	67	0.47%	39	8,276
Grand Traverse	47.53%	28,683	50.54%	30,502	1.32%	796	0.62%	372	60,353
Gratiot	34.95%	6,693	63.20%	12,102	1.25%	240	0.59%	113	19,148
Hillsdale	25.25%	5,883	73.11%	17,037	1.12%	261	0.52%	121	23,302
Houghton	41.82%	7,750	56.00%	10,378	1.54%	285	0.64%	120	18,533
Huron	29.77%	5,490	69.03%	12,731	0.79%	145	0.41%	76	18,442
Ingham	65.18%	94,212	32.96%	47,639	1.30%	1,873	0.58%	826	144,550
Ionia	33.84%	10,901	64.13%	20,657	1.52%	490	0.50%	161	32,209
Iosco	34.92%	5,373	63.42%	9,759	0.99%	152	0.67%	103	15,387
Iron	36.69%	2,493	62.05%	4,216	0.79%	54	0.47%	32	6,795
Isabella	47.74%	14,072	50.26%	14,815	1.24%	365	0.76%	224	29,476
Jackson	39.49%	31,995	58.47%	47,372	1.37%	1,113	0.66%	534	81,014
Kalamazoo	58.22%	83,686	39.53%	56,823	1.44%	2,064	0.81%	1,173	143,746
Kalkaska	28.24%	3,002	69.95%	7,436	1.34%	142	0.48%	51	10,631
Kent	51.91%	187,915	45.78%	165,741	1.52%	5,495	0.79%	2,880	362,031
Keweenaw	43.16%	672	55.36%	862	1.09%	17	0.39%	6	1,557
Lake	36.13%	2,288	62.32%	3,946	1.03%	65	0.52%	33	6,332
Lapeer	31.04%	16,367	67.29%	35,482	1.09%	573	0.59%	310	52,732
Leelanau	52.04%	8,795	46.84%	7,916	0.79%	134	0.33%	55	16,900
Lenawee	39.13%	20,918	59.01%	31,541	1.29%	690	0.57%	303	53,452
Livingston	37.91%	48,220	60.52%	76,982	1.19%	1,511	0.38%	484	127,197
Luce	28.00%	842	70.14%	2,109	0.90%	27	0.97%	29	3,007
Mackinac	37.47%	2,632	61.27%	4,304	0.80%	56	0.47%	33	7,025
Macomb	45.31%	223,952	53.39%	263,863	0.90%	4,462	0.40%	1,979	494,256
Manistee	41.60%	6,107	56.69%	8,321	1.05%	154	0.66%	97	14,679
Marquette	54.50%	20,465	43.37%	16,286	1.36%	511	0.77%	288	37,550
Mason	39.36%	6,802	59.06%	10,207	0.83%	143	0.76%	131	17,283
Mecosta	34.98%	7,375	62.93%	13,267	1.44%	303	0.65%	136	21,081
Menominee	34.20%	4,316	64.31%	8,117	0.99%	125	0.50%	63	12,621
Midland	41.67%	20,493	56.28%	27,675	1.43%	701	0.62%	306	49,175
Missaukee	22.47%	1,967	75.93%	6,648	1.27%	111	0.33%	29	8,755
Monroe	37.78%	32,980	60.39%	52,722	1.24%	1,086	0.59%	511	87,299
Montcalm	30.19%	9,703	67.88%	21,815	1.33%	428	0.60%	192	32,138
Montmorency	27.77%	1,628	71.14%	4,171	0.65%	38	0.44%	26	5,863
Muskegon	49.37%	45,643	48.82%	45,133	1.32%	1,219	0.48%	449	92,444
Newaygo	28.95%	7,873	69.33%	18,857	1.22%	331	0.50%	136	27,197
Oakland	56.24%	434,148	42.22%	325,971	0.94%	7,282	0.59%	4,590	771,991
Oceana	35.11%	4,944	63.15%	8,892	1.18%	166	0.55%	78	14,080
Ogemaw	29.15%	3,475	69.23%	8,253	1.12%	134	0.49%	59	11,921
Ontonagon	36.51%	1,391	61.89%	2,358	0.79%	30	0.81%	31	3,810
Osceola	26.05%	3,214	72.35%	8,928	1.09%	135	0.51%	63	12,340
Oscoda	27.50%	1,342	71.02%	3,466	0.80%	39	0.68%	33	4,880
Otsego	32.10%	4,743	66.19%	9,779	1.20%	177	0.51%	76	14,775
Ottawa	38.35%	64,705	59.81%	100,913	1.37%	2,315	0.46%	780	168,713
Presque Isle	34.84%	2,911	63.94%	5,342	0.84%	70	0.38%	32	8,355
Roscommon	34.36%	5,166	64.32%	9,670	0.80%	121	0.51%	77	15,034
Saginaw	49.37%	51,088	49.08%	50,785	0.97%	1,007	0.58%	603	103,483
Sanilac	26.58%	5,966	72.15%	16,194	0.95%	213	0.33%	73	22,446
Schoolcraft	33.49%	1,589	65.12%	3,090	0.84%	40	0.55%	26	4,745
Shiawassee	39.05%	15,347	58.90%	23,149	1.33%	524	0.71%	281	39,301
St. Clair	34.02%	31,363	64.19%	59,185	1.20%	1,109	0.59%	545	92,202
St. Joseph	33.10%	9,262	64.78%	18,127	1.49%	416	0.63%	176	27,981
Tuscola	29.55%	8,712	68.85%	20,297	1.11%	327	0.49%	143	29,479
Van Buren	42.92%	16,803	55.16%	21,591	1.29%	504	0.63%	248	39,146
Washtenaw	72.44%	157,136	25.93%	56,241	0.90%	1,956	0.74%	1,598	216,931
Wayne	68.32%	597,170	30.27%	264,553	0.75%	6,567	0.65%	5,728	874,018
Wexford	31.92%	5,838	66.16%	12,102	1.42%	259	0.51%	93	18,292

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Leelanau (largest municipality: Greilickville)
• Kent (largest municipality: Grand Rapids)
• Saginaw (largest municipality: Saginaw)

By congressional district

Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	57.9%	40.6%	Jack Bergman
2nd	55%	43.2%	Bill Huizenga
3rd	50.7%	47.4%	Justin Amash
			Peter Meijer
4th	61.1%	37.2%	John Moolenaar
5th	47.1%	51.4%	Dan Kildee
6th	51.3%	46.8%	Fred Upton
7th	56.7%	41.6%	Tim Walberg
8th	49.6%	48.8%	Elissa Slotkin
9th	42.7%	55.9%	Andy Levin
10th	64.2%	34.4%	Paul Mitchell
			Lisa McClain
11th	47.1%	51.6%	Haley Stevens
12th	34.4%	64.2%	Debbie Dingell
13th	20%	78.8%	Rashida Tlaib
14th	19.6%	79.5%	Brenda Lawrence

Analysis

Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasts a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's collapse in the northern industrial states.^[29][30]

Biden would carry the state by about 2.8%; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.2% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.^[31]

While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a fairly sizable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.^[31] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.^[32]

Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.^[32] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,^[33] and flipped back Saginaw County.^[34]

Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.^[35] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.^[36][37]

Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.^[38] African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.^[39] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.^[40]

 

The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown).

 

The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality.

In Oakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy.^[41]

The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.^[42] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.^[43]

Aftermath

On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.^[44] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why", "when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.^[45]

In Antrim County, human error led to a miscount of an unofficial tally of votes for the presidential candidates. The error was caused by a worker using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, therefore mismatched results were produced. The errors were spotted and rectified, thus the unofficial tally was changed from a Biden victory in the county to a Trump victory.^[46]

Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.^[47]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Michigan
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 Michigan elections
• 2020 United States elections
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
2. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
3. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
4. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
5. Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
6. The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
7. The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
8. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
9. Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
10. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
11. Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
12. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
13. Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
15. CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
16. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign

Voter samples and additional candidates

1. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
2. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
3. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
4. Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
6. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
8. "Someone else" with 2%
9. Standard VI response
10. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
11. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
12. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
13. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
14. "Some other candidate" with 2%
15. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
16. "Someone else" with 3%
17. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
18. "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
19. "Someone else" with no voters
20. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
21. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
22. "Third party" with 5%
23. Includes "Refused"
24. "Someone else" with 1%
25. "Other/third party" with 2%
26. "Someone else" with 0%
27. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
28. "Third party" with 2%
29. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
30. Includes Undecided
31. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
32. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
33. "Third party candidate" with 5%
34. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
35. "Third party candidate" with 4%
36. "Someone else" with 4%
37. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
38. "Other third party" with 2%
39. "Another candidate" with 0%
40. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
41. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
42. "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
43. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
44. "Someone else" with 1.2%
45. "Another candidate" with 1%
46. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
47. "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
48. Would not vote with 1%
49. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
50. "Other/not sure" with 7%
51. "Some other candidate" with 3%
52. "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
53. Would not vote with 0%
54. "Another party candidate" with 1%
55. "Another third party/write-in" 1%
56. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
57. "Third party" with 6%
58. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
59. "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
60. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
61. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
62. "Would vote third party" with 5%
63. "Refused" with 2%
64. "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
65. "other" with 2%
66. "Refused/no answer" with 4%
67. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
68. "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
69. "A different candidate" with 6%
70. "Third party" with 4%
71. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
72. "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
73. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
74. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
75. A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
76. Would not vote with 5%
77. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
78. Would not vote with 7%
79. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
80. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
81. Would not vote with 6%
82. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
83. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
84. Would not vote with 4%
85. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
86. A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
87. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
88. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
89. Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
90. Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
91. 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
92. "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
93. "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
94. "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
95. "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
96. "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%

References

1. "Record 5.5M voted in Michigan; highest percentage in decades". Associated Press. November 5, 2020.
2. "Michigan Presidential Election Results 2020". NBC News. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
3. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
5. Shepard, Steven. "Michigan certifies Trump as winner". POLITICO. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
6. Coleman, Justine (September 9, 2020). "Biden unveils plan to penalize companies that offshore jobs ahead of Michigan visit". TheHill. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
7. "Michigan Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
8. "Michigan Will Keep Mark Sanford's Name on the Republican Presidential Primary Unless he Sends in a Withdrawal Letter | Ballot Access News".
9. "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. April 30, 2020. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
10. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
11. "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
12. "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
13. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
14. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
15. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
16. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
17. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
18. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
19. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
20. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
21. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
22. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
23. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
24. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
25. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
26. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
27. "2020 Michigan Official General Election Results – 11/03/2020". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
28. "2020 Presidential General Election Results - Michigan". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
29. Alter, Charlotte (September 15, 2020). "Joe Biden is Running an Invisible Digital Campaign in All-Important Michigan. That's Making Some Democrats Nervous". Time. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
30. Emmrich, Stuart (October 28, 2020). "Letter From Michigan: Trying to Win a Key Battleground State for Joe Biden, One Door at a Time". Vogue. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
31. Spangler, Todd (November 6, 2020). "Here's how Biden beat Trump in Michigan — and it wasn't corruption". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
32. Bartkowiak, Dave (November 11, 2020). "Biden wins big in Wayne, Oakland counties while Trump holds onto Macomb County". ClickOnDetroit. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
33. Simpson-Mersha, Isis (November 8, 2020). "See how Genesee County in 2020 voted compared to past elections". MLive. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
34. Johnson, Bob (November 4, 2020). "Biden narrowly wins Saginaw County". MLive. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
35. "US elections 2020: Trump's support dips among Caucasian evangelical Christians, exit polls show". Middle East Eye. November 6, 2020. Retrieved December 15, 2020.
36. Davis, Gabriel (January 19, 2021). "How Arab Americans Helped Decide the U.S. Election". Jadaliyya. from the original on January 18, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021.
37. Ramey, Elisse (November 7, 2020). "Muslim vote helps secure Michigan for Biden/Harris ticket". ABC12. from the original on November 7, 2020. Retrieved November 16, 2021.
38. Peters, Jeremy W. (November 4, 2020). "The view in Michigan: Amid ballot-counting, Biden's team is buoyed by high Detroit turnout". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
39. Warikoo, Niraj (November 6, 2020). "Black voters in Detroit key for Joe Biden and Gary Peters' victories, advocates say". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
40. Garrison, Joey (November 13, 2020). "Donald Trump keeps baselessly claiming voter fraud in cities. But suburbs actually lost him the election". USA Today. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
41. Bartkowiak, Dave Jr. (November 10, 2020). "How Detroit's Oakland County suburbs voted in 2020 presidential election". Click on Detroit. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
42. Ruble, Kayla (November 23, 2020). "Detroit had more vote errors in 2016 when Trump won Michigan by a narrow margin. He didn't object then". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
43. "Michigan board certifies Nov. 3 election, cementing Biden victory".
44. Egan, Paul (November 5, 2020). "Judge throws out Trump lawsuit over counting of Michigan ballots". Detroit Free Press. from the original on November 8, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
45. Herb, Jeremy; Polantz, Katelyn (November 7, 2020). "'Democracy plain and simple': How the 2020 election defied fraud claims and pandemic fears". CNN. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
46. Perlroth, Nicole; Nicas, Jack (November 9, 2020). "No, Software Glitches Are Not Affecting Vote Counts". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 10, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
47. Mauger, Craig; Nann Burke, Melissa (November 23, 2020). "Michigan board certifies Nov. 3 election, cementing Biden victory". The Detroit News. Retrieved November 23, 2020.

Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 9, 2020), , Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 9, 2020, retrieved September 7, 2020. (Describes 2016 political geography of Detroit; Detroit suburbs; the Middle; the Thumb; the West; Upper Peninsula and North)
• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Michigan
• David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (Describes bellwether Kent County, Michigan)
• Jennifer Steinhauer (October 17, 2020), "In Kalamazoo, Old High School Classmates Reckon With a Divided Country", The New York Times

External links

• "League of Women Voters of Michigan". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Michigan", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Michigan: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• Michigan at Ballotpedia