2016 United States presidential election in Utah

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

2016 United States presidential election in Utah

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout	57.7% ^[1]
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Evan McMullin Party Republican Democratic Independent Home state New York New York Utah Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Mindy Finn Electoral vote 6 0 0 Popular vote 515,231 310,676 243,690 Percentage 45.54% 27.46% 21.54%
County results Precinct results Trump   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Clinton   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% McMullin   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   90–100% Johnson   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color

Treemap of the popular vote by county

On March 22, 2016,^[2] in the presidential primaries, Utah voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. The state uses a system of semi-closed primaries, meaning that voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of one party of their choosing. Utah was won by Trump, who won the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Clinton received 27.5 percent of the vote, and Republican-turned-independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21.5 percent.^[3] This was the only time since 1992 that the Republican presidential nominee failed to win a majority of the vote in Utah.

Trump's 18.08 point margin was the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won by 9.73%.^[a] However, this was due to McMullin's strong third-party showing limiting Trump to under 50% of the vote; Clinton received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than five other Democrats in this same time period (Barack Obama in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1996, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Hubert Humphrey in 1968).

This was one of only three states, the others being Idaho and Vermont, where the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson did not obtain third place, as McMullin beat him in Idaho and Utah, and write-in votes for Bernie Sanders (who was no longer running for president) beat him in Vermont. Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Salt Lake or Summit Counties since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900, respectively. The state was one of 11 (along with the District of Columbia) that shifted towards the Democrats, and the largest of any of the state that did so.

Caucus elections

Utah held its presidential caucuses on March 22, 2016.

Democratic caucus

Main article: 2016 Utah Democratic presidential caucuses

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential caucus ballot:

• Hillary Clinton
• Bernie Sanders
• Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)

Utah Democratic caucuses, March 22, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	62,992	79.21%	27	2	29
Hillary Clinton	16,166	20.33%	6	2	8
Others	34	0.04%
Uncommitted	334	0.42%	0	0	0
Total	79,526	100%	33	4	37
Source: Utah Democratic Party

Republican caucus

 

Republican caucus results by county:

  Cruz

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential caucus ballot:

• Ted Cruz
• John Kasich
• Donald Trump

Utah Republican caucus, March 22, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Ted Cruz	132,904	69.46%	40	0	40
John Kasich	31,992	16.72%	0	0	0
Donald Trump	26,434	13.82%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	191,330	100.00%	40	0	40
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Voting history

Main article: Political party strength in Utah

The state of Utah has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket in every election year since 1968 and only once voted for a Democratic candidate in elections since 1952 (in 1964). The state has a majority of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) population, which on the national level voted 78 percent to 21 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012.^[4] This very heavily contributed to Mitt Romney winning the state by a margin of 73 percent to 25 percent in the 2012 election. However, Donald Trump's criticism of Romney's faith on the campaign trail in 2016 angered many Republican voters.^[5] Polls suggested that Utah might be a strong state for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson as a protest vote against Trump.^[6] As a result, Larry Sabato's online election forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball, downgraded their rating of the Utah contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on June 23.^[7]

Evan McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, had also been viewed by voters in Utah as another alternative, given that it is also his home state. According to one poll released on October 12, Trump and Clinton were seen as virtually tied in Utah at 26%, with McMullin polling at 22%.^[8] McMullin's rise was the result of further Republican backlash against Trump following the release of a controversial video from 2005 showing Trump bragging about obscene sexual conduct with women.^[9] In a HeatStreet poll conducted from October 15–16, McMullin was polled in second place with 29% of likely voters, coming behind Trump who polled at 30%, and ahead of Clinton who polled at 28 percent.^[10] In a poll conducted by Emerson College from October 17–19 with a sample size of 700 people, McMullin placed first with 31 percent ahead of Trump by a 4 percent margin, who had 27 percent of support, while Clinton polled in third at 24 percent.^[11] This was the first conducted statewide opinion poll of the 2016 election where a third-party candidate has placed first.

Had McMullin won Utah, he would have become the first nationally nonpartisan candidate since George Washington to win a state in 224 years since Washington's reelection in 1792,^[b] and ultimately the first nonpartisan candidate to win a state west of the Mississippi River.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times^[13]	Likely R	November 6, 2016
CNN^[14]	Lean R	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[15]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[16]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[17]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[18]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[19]	Likely R	November 8, 2016
Fox News^[20]	Lean R	November 7, 2016

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Utah

Donald Trump won almost every poll, except for one poll showing him tied with Hillary Clinton and Evan McMullin, and another showing McMullin with 31% of the vote, ahead of Trump's 27% and Clinton's 24%. The polling was close due to the large percentage of people polled who were voting for McMullin. The final RCP average showed Trump with 37% to Clinton's 27%, Evan McMullin's 25% and Gary Johnson with 3.5%.^[21]

Candidates on the ballot

The following candidates were listed on the ballot:

• Donald Trump & Mike Pence (Republican Party)
• Evan McMullin & Nathan Johnson (Not affiliated with any Party)
• Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine (Democratic Party)
• Gary Johnson & William Weld (Libertarian Party)
• Darrell Castle & Scott N. Bradley (Constitution Party)
• Jill Stein & Ajamu Baraka (Green Party)
• Rocky De La Fuente & Michael Steinberg (Reform Party)
• Rocky Giordani & Farley Anderson (Independent American Party)
• Alyson Kennedy & Osborne Hart (Socialist Workers Party)
• Monica Moorehead & Lamont Lilly (Workers World Party)

Candidates not on the ballot

The following were certified by the state as "write-in candidates", which means that votes given to these persons would be counted:

• Stephen Paul Parks
• Mike Smith & Daniel White
• Laurence Kotlikoff & Edward Leamer
• Tom Hoefling & Steve Schulin
• David Limbaugh & Bo Gingrich
• Dustin Baird & Brandon Russell
• Andrew D. Basiago & Karen D. Kinnison
• Emidio Soltysik & Angela Nicole Walker
• Tony Valdivia & Aaron Roy Barriere
• Cherunda Fox & Roger Kushner
• Sheila "Samm" Tittle & R. Charles Casper-Kacprowicz
• Robert L. Buchanan & Jason A. Washington
• Marshall Schoenke & James Creighton Mitchell Jr.
• Janet Reid & John E. Reid
• Jamin Burton & Victor Neves

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Utah^[22]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	515,231	45.54%	-27.08%
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine	310,676	27.46%	+2.77%
	Independent	Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson	243,690	21.54%	N/A
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson Bill Weld	39,608	3.50%	+2.27%
	Independent	Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka	9,438	0.83%	+0.46%
	Constitution	Darrell Castle Scott Bradley	8,032	0.71%	+0.43%
	Independent American	Rocky Giordani Farley Anderson	2,752	0.24%
	Independent	Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg	883	0.08%
	Independent	Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly	544	0.05%
	Independent	Alyson Kennedy Osborne Hart	521	0.05%
	Write-in		55	0.00%
Total votes			1,131,430	100.00%

Results by county

County^[23]	Donald Trump Republican		Hillary Clinton Democratic		Evan McMullin Unaffiliated		Gary Johnson Libertarian		Jill Stein Unaffiliated		Darrell Castle Constitution		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Beaver	1,838	73.37%	264	10.54%	323	12.89%	36	1.44%	10	0.40%	12	0.48%	22	0.88%	1,515^[c]	60.48%	2,505
Box Elder	12,230	61.53%	2,282	11.48%	4,257	21.42%	591	2.97%	76	0.38%	210	1.06%	232	1.17%	7,973^[c]	40.11%	19,878
Cache	21,139	45.25%	8,563	18.33%	13,695	29.31%	1,630	3.49%	330	0.71%	669	1.43%	692	1.48%	7,444^[c]	15.94%	46,718
Carbon	5,275	65.95%	1,717	21.47%	615	7.69%	191	2.39%	41	0.51%	47	0.59%	113	1.42%	3,558	44.48%	7,999
Daggett	331	69.39%	77	16.14%	44	9.22%	17	3.56%	0	0.00%	4	0.84%	4	0.84%	254	53.25%	477
Davis	62,219	44.35%	28,776	20.51%	39,735	28.32%	5,390	3.84%	864	0.62%	883	0.63%	2,421	1.72%	22,484^[c]	16.03%	140,288
Duchesne	5,508	78.82%	500	7.16%	730	10.45%	107	1.53%	18	0.26%	68	0.97%	57	0.82%	4,778^[c]	68.37%	6,988
Emery	3,425	79.37%	380	8.81%	362	8.39%	71	1.65%	3	0.07%	15	0.35%	59	1.37%	3,045	70.56%	4,315
Garfield	1,606	67.96%	358	15.15%	286	12.10%	61	2.58%	16	0.68%	3	0.13%	33	1.39%	1,248	52.81%	2,363
Grand	1,975	42.93%	1,960	42.60%	281	6.11%	180	3.91%	109	2.37%	10	0.22%	86	1.87%	15	0.33%	4,601
Iron	11,561	64.84%	2,450	13.74%	2,752	15.43%	540	3.03%	102	0.57%	173	0.97%	253	1.41%	8,809^[c]	49.41%	17,831
Juab	2,827	66.97%	442	10.47%	762	18.05%	72	1.71%	14	0.33%	44	1.04%	60	1.42%	2,065^[c]	48.92%	4,221
Kane	2,265	64.02%	741	20.94%	352	9.95%	86	2.43%	31	0.88%	15	0.42%	48	1.35%	1,524	43.08%	3,538
Millard	3,860	73.26%	431	8.18%	719	13.65%	108	2.05%	6	0.11%	99	1.88%	46	0.86%	3,141^[c]	59.61%	5,269
Morgan	3,188	61.05%	577	11.05%	1,198	22.94%	142	2.72%	11	0.21%	68	1.30%	38	0.73%	1,990^[c]	38.11%	5,222
Piute	626	85.75%	47	6.44%	36	4.93%	11	1.51%	1	0.14%	5	0.68%	4	0.55%	579	79.31%	730
Rich	797	71.29%	104	9.30%	174	15.56%	21	1.88%	1	0.09%	10	0.89%	11	0.99%	623^[c]	55.73%	1,118
Salt Lake	138,043	32.58%	175,863	41.50%	79,880	18.85%	16,306	3.85%	4,965	1.17%	2,047	0.48%	6,639	1.57%	−37,820	−8.92%	423,743
San Juan	2,645	47.80%	2,042	36.90%	486	8.78%	165	2.98%	47	0.85%	45	0.81%	104	1.88%	603	10.90%	5,534
Sanpete	6,673	65.12%	1,061	10.35%	2,038	19.89%	186	1.82%	30	0.29%	139	1.36%	120	1.17%	4,635^[c]	45.23%	10,247
Sevier	6,740	77.52%	695	7.99%	916	10.53%	175	2.01%	29	0.33%	67	0.77%	73	0.84%	5,824^[c]	66.99%	8,695
Summit	7,333	35.11%	10,503	50.29%	1,786	8.55%	756	3.62%	170	0.81%	44	0.21%	293	1.40%	−3,170	−15.18%	20,885
Tooele	11,169	50.79%	4,573	20.79%	4,769	21.69%	783	3.56%	182	0.83%	191	0.87%	202	0.92%	6,400^[c]	29.10%	21,992
Uintah	9,810	76.26%	995	7.73%	1,496	11.63%	275	2.14%	43	0.33%	129	1.00%	116	0.90%	8,314^[c]	64.63%	12,864
Utah	102,182	50.18%	28,522	14.01%	60,532	29.72%	6,437	3.16%	1,030	0.51%	1,994	0.98%	2,945	1.44%	41,650^[c]	20.46%	203,642
Wasatch	6,115	49.85%	3,063	24.97%	2,315	18.87%	409	3.33%	70	0.57%	103	0.84%	191	1.56%	3,052	24.88%	12,266
Washington	42,650	68.38%	10,288	16.49%	6,565	10.53%	1,473	2.36%	290	0.46%	459	0.74%	646	1.04%	32,362	51.89%	62,371
Wayne	966	67.74%	271	19.00%	135	9.47%	18	1.26%	12	0.84%	14	0.98%	10	0.70%	695	48.74%	1,426
Weber	40,235	46.78%	23,131	26.89%	16,451	19.13%	3,371	3.92%	937	1.09%	465	0.54%	1,416	1.64%	17,104	19.89%	86,006
Totals	515,231	45.05%	310,676	27.16%	243,690	21.31%	39,608	3.46%	9,438	0.83%	8,032	0.70%	17,057	1.49%	204,555	17.89%	1,143,732

 

County Flips:

Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

^[24]

• Salt Lake (largest city: Salt Lake City)
• Summit (largest city: Park City)

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.^[25]

District	Trump	Clinton	McMullin	Representative
1st	49.7%	22.4%	22.3%	Rob Bishop
2nd	46.0%	32.0%	16.9%	Chris Stewart
3rd	47.2%	23.3%	24.5%	Jason Chaffetz
4th	39.1%	32.4%	22.5%	Mia Love

Analysis

Utah gave the Republican nominee a 45 percent plurality and thus awarded him six electoral votes. This was the lowest percent of the vote Trump received in a state he won in 2016.^[26][27] Trump received a much lower percentage of the vote in Utah than did Mitt Romney in 2012.^[28] In particular, Trump underperformed Romney by over 30 percentage points in the Provo-Orem, Logan, and Ogden metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Clinton improved on Obama's performance in all of these areas.^[29] Trump received only 45 percent of the vote among Utah members of the LDS Church, barely half the proportion that Romney won in 2012. This was also much lower than the 61 percent of the LDS Church's vote Trump received nationally.^[30]

Evan McMullin's 21.3 percent of the vote is the strongest third-party performance in any state since Ross Perot during the 1992 presidential election.^[d][31][32] He finished second ahead of Clinton in fifteen of Utah's twenty-nine counties, becoming the first third-party candidate since Perot to outpoll a major party candidate in any county nationwide, and only the fifth since 1928 to do so in any non-Southern county.^[e] In Utah County, he received almost thirty percent of the vote, about twice as much as Clinton and more than any non-Republican presidential candidate since 1968.^[33]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Utah
• Presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

Notes

1. In 1992, George H. W. Bush won Utah by only 16.02 points; however, this was ahead of Ross Perot. Bill Clinton lost Utah by 18.71 points in that election.
2. Robert Marion La Follette senior in 1924 did win his home state of Wisconsin under an “Independent” banner,^[12] and exceeded McMullin performance under a similar “Independent” banner in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nevada and Oregon. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt also exceeded McMullin’s vote share under the “Independent” banner in Kansas, as did James B. Weaver in South Dakota in 1892.
3. In counties where McMullin placed second, ahead of Clinton, the Margin given is Trump's vote and percentage minus McMullin's vote and percentage.
4. Perot exceeded McMullin’s Utah performance in twenty-six of the fifty states in 1992, with his best performance being 30.44 percent in Maine.
5. The other four were William Lemke in the North Dakota counties of Burke, Divide, Williams, Mountrail and Towner in 1936, George Wallace in Utah’s own Kane County in 1968, John G. Schmitz in the four Idaho counties of Fremont, Jefferson, Lemhi and Madison in 1972, and Perot in numerous counties in 1992 and a few in 1996.

References

1. "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
2. "2016 Primary Schedule – 2016 Election Central". Uspresidentialelectionnews.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
3. "2016 General Election Results" (PDF). November 28, 2016. Retrieved April 23, 2017.
4. Bickel, Joshua (November 7, 2012). "How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis". Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
5. Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
6. Azari, Julia (July 6, 2016). "The States That Love (And Hate) Third-Party Candidates". FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
7. Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "The Electoral College: Map No. 2". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
8. "UT Statewide Presidential Polling October 2016 Memo - Y2.pdf" (PDF). Dropbox. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
9. Dennis Romboy (October 11, 2016). "Poll: Trump falls into tie with Clinton among Utah voters". Deseret News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
10. Mensch, Louise (October 17, 2016). "EXCLUSIVE: Evan McMullin Utah Poll: Independent Conservative Ties Trump". Heatst.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
11. "Emerson College Polls: Utah breaking for third-party candidate McMullin. Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on" (PDF). Media.wix.com. Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
12. Dave Leip. "1924 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin". Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas.
13. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
14. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
15. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
16. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
17. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
18. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
19. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
20. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
21. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin".
22. "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
23. "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
24. "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
25. "Trump, Clinton underperformed in Utah's four Congressional Districts in 2016". Utah Policy. March 28, 2017.
26. "2016 election results: Utah". edition.cnn.com.
27. Roche, Lisa Riley (September 26, 2018). "Poll: Majority of Utahns don't want second term for Trump". KSL. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
28. "See a Map That Shows Exactly Why Trump Won". Time. December 1, 2016. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
29. Florida, Richard (December 7, 2016). "The Metro Areas That Swung for Trump and Clinton". Citylab. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
30. Gehrke, Robert (November 18, 2016). "While Mormons nationally stuck with Trump, in Utah he lagged". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
31. "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
32. McCombs, Brady (November 9, 2016). "Trump wins Utah to extend GOP's 5-decade winning streak". Associated Press. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
33. England, Katie (November 28, 2016). "Utah County gave Evan McMullin highest percentage of votes of any non-Republican since 1968". Daily Herald. Retrieved May 5, 2019.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Official final canvass