2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Wisconsin voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican Party nominee Donald Trump against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.

2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout	67.34% ^[1]
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,405,284 1,382,536 Percentage 47.22% 46.45%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90-100% Clinton   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes

Treemap of the popular vote by county

On April 5, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Wisconsin voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican Parties' respective nominees for president in an open primary; voters were allowed to vote in either party's primary regardless of their own party affiliation. Bernie Sanders prevailed in Wisconsin's Democratic primary, while Ted Cruz won Wisconsin's Republican primary.

In the general election, Donald Trump unexpectedly won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of 0.77%, with 47.22% of the total votes over the 46.45% of Hillary Clinton. Wisconsin emerged as the tipping-point state in the 2016 election.

Trump's victory in Wisconsin was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all.^[2][3][4]

By winning Wisconsin, Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. He also became the first Republican to win a majority in Iron County since 1920.^[a] Wisconsin weighed in for this election as 2.9% more Republican than the nation-at-large, the first time it voted to the right of the nation since 2000.^[5] Wisconsin was also one of eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton which Hillary Clinton lost. This is the only election since 1960 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without Wisconsin, and only the third since the Great Depression (the other being 1944).

Primaries

Wisconsin held its presidential primaries on April 5, 2016.

Democratic primary

Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016

Main article: 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums

The Democratic Party held its sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was hosted by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff; it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Democratic primary, April 2016

Main article: 2016 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary

 

Election results by county.

  Bernie Sanders

  Hillary Clinton

Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	570,192	56.59%	48	1	49
Hillary Clinton	433,739	43.05%	38	9	47
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	1,732	0.17%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (write-in)	18	0.00%
Scattering	431	0.04%
Uncommitted	1,488	0.15%	0	0	0
Total	1,007,600	100%	86	10	96
Source: The Green Papers, Wisconsin Secretary of State

Republican primary

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015

Main article: 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

The Republican Party held its fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015, in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal, who ended his campaign a week after the debate.

Republican primary, April 2016

Main article: 2016 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

 

Election results by county.

  Ted Cruz

  Donald Trump

Wisconsin Republican primary, April 5, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Ted Cruz	533,079	48.20%	36	0	36
Donald Trump	387,295	35.02%	6	0	6
John Kasich	155,902	14.10%	0	0	0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)	10,591	0.96%	0	0	0
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	5,660	0.51%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	3,054	0.28%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	2,519	0.23%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	2,281	0.21%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	1,424	0.13%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,191	0.11%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	772	0.07%	0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	511	0.05%	0	0	0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)	245	0.02%	0	0	0
Victor Williams (write-in)	39	<0.01%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	1,105,944	100.00%	42	0	42
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party presidential preference convention

The Wisconsin Green Party held its presidential preference vote at its annual state convention in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 16.^[6]

Wisconsin Green Party presidential convention, April 13, 2016^[7]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	–	–	7
William Kreml	–	–	1
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry	–	–	–
Darryl Cherney	–	–	–
Kent Mesplay	–	–	–
Total	-	100.00%	8

General Election

Voting history

Wisconsin joined the Union in May 1848 and has participated in all elections from 1848 onwards. Since 1900, Wisconsin has been won by the Democrats and Republicans the same number of times.^[8] Republican-turned-Progressive Robert M. La Follette Sr. carried the state in the 1924 presidential election.

The state voted for the Democratic nominee in the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, although sometimes by small margins, as it was in 1992, 2000, and 2004. There were other occasions, in contrast, when the margin of victory was substantial, such as 1996, 2008, and 2012.^[8]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times^[9]	Likely D	November 6, 2016
CNN^[10]	Lean D	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[11]	Lean D	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[12]	Likely D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[13]	Tilt D	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[14]	Likely D	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[15]	Lean D	November 8, 2016
Fox News^[16]	Lean D	November 7, 2016

Polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Wisconsin

Polls consistently showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading by a margin of two to eight points in a four-way race.^[17] The last poll published prior to the election was by SurveyMonkey and had Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Donald Trump.^[17] Clinton never visited the state during the general election campaign, while Trump visited six times.^[18] On election day, Trump ended up carrying the state by less than a point, a difference of an average of five to six points from most pre-election polling.^[17] Prior to the election, many major news networks and professional and election analysts predicted the state as either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin's unexpected swing to Trump, along with two other Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan), was the deciding factor in his win of 306–232 over Clinton, despite her garnering a plurality of the votes. Clinton referenced the loss in her memoir What Happened: "If there's one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end. They also looked good for the Democrat running for Senate, Russ Feingold."^[19] Interestingly, Trump did not win Wisconsin unlike the other states that he flipped by finding new voters, rather retaining more of Romney's vote, as the total votes cast in Wisconsin declined from 2012.

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	Donald Trump	Mike Pence	1,405,284	47.22%	10
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	Tim Kaine	1,382,536	46.45%	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	William Weld	106,674	3.58%	0
	Green	Jill Stein	Ajamu Baraka	31,072	1.04%	0
	Constitution	Darrell Castle	Scott Bradley	12,162	0.41%	0
	Independent (write-in votes)	Evan McMullin	Nathan Johnson	11,855	0.40%	0
	Workers World	Monica Moorehead	Lamont Lilly	1,770	0.06%	0
	Independent	Rocky De La Fuente	Michael Steinberg	1,502	0.05%	0
	Others / Write-In Votes	-	-	23,295	0.78%	0
Totals				2,976,150	100.00%	10
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

By congressional districts

 

District results showing number of votes by size and candidate by color.^[20]

Donald Trump won 6 of the 8 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.^[20]

District	Trump	Clinton	others	Representative
1st	52%	42%	6%	Paul Ryan
2nd	29%	65%	6%	Mark Pocan
3rd	49%	44%	7%	Ron Kind
4th	22%	73%	5%	Gwen Moore
5th	57%	37%	7%	Jim Sensenbrenner
6th	55%	38%	7%	Glenn Grothman
7th	58%	37%	6%	Sean Duffy
8th	57%	37%	6%	Mike Gallagher

Results by county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Hillary Clinton Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	5,966	58.89%	3,745	36.97%	419	4.14%	2,221	21.92%	10,130
Ashland	3,303	41.12%	4,226	52.61%	503	6.27%	-923	-11.49%	8,032
Barron	13,614	60.05%	7,889	34.80%	1,168	5.15%	5,725	25.25%	22,671
Bayfield	4,124	42.90%	4,953	51.53%	535	5.57%	-829	-8.63%	9,612
Brown	67,210	52.10%	53,382	41.38%	8,419	6.52%	13,828	10.72%	129,011
Buffalo	4,048	57.99%	2,525	36.17%	408	5.84%	1,523	21.82%	6,981
Burnett	5,410	61.91%	2,949	33.75%	379	4.34%	2,461	28.16%	8,738
Calumet	15,367	57.78%	9,642	36.25%	1,586	5.97%	5,725	21.53%	26,595
Chippewa	17,916	56.75%	11,887	37.66%	1,765	5.59%	6,029	19.09%	31,568
Clark	8,652	63.28%	4,221	30.87%	800	5.85%	4,431	32.41%	13,673
Columbia	14,163	47.69%	13,528	45.55%	2,007	6.76%	635	2.14%	29,698
Crawford	3,836	49.64%	3,419	44.24%	473	6.12%	417	5.40%	7,728
Dane	71,275	23.04%	217,697	70.37%	20,382	6.59%	-146,422	-47.33%	309,354
Dodge	26,635	61.83%	13,968	32.42%	2,475	5.75%	12,667	29.41%	43,078
Door	8,580	48.77%	8,014	45.55%	998	5.68%	566	3.22%	17,592
Douglas	9,661	42.87%	11,357	50.39%	1,518	6.74%	-1,696	-7.52%	22,536
Dunn	11,486	51.96%	9,034	40.87%	1,586	7.17%	2,452	11.09%	22,106
Eau Claire	23,331	42.40%	27,340	49.69%	4,354	7.91%	-4,009	-7.29%	55,025
Florence	1,898	71.46%	665	25.04%	93	3.50%	1,233	46.42%	2,656
Fond du Lac	31,022	59.89%	17,387	33.57%	3,387	6.54%	13,635	26.32%	51,796
Forest	2,787	61.32%	1,579	34.74%	179	3.94%	1,208	26.58%	4,545
Grant	12,350	50.68%	10,051	41.25%	1,967	8.07%	2,289	9.43%	24,368
Green	8,693	45.79%	9,122	48.05%	1,170	6.16%	-429	-2.26%	18,985
Green Lake	6,216	66.02%	2,693	28.60%	507	5.38%	3,523	37.42%	9,416
Iowa	4,809	39.18%	6,669	54.33%	797	6.49%	-1,860	-15.15%	12,275
Iron	2,081	59.24%	1,275	36.29%	157	4.47%	806	22.95%	3,513
Jackson	4,906	52.94%	3,818	41.20%	543	5.86%	1,088	11.74%	9,267
Jefferson	23,417	54.32%	16,569	38.44%	3,123	7.24%	6,848	15.88%	43,109
Juneau	7,130	60.76%	4,073	34.71%	532	4.53%	3,057	26.05%	11,735
Kenosha	36,037	47.23%	35,799	46.92%	4,468	5.85%	238	0.31%	76,304
Kewaunee	6,618	61.47%	3,627	33.69%	522	4.84%	2,991	27.78%	10,767
La Crosse	26,378	41.43%	32,406	50.89%	4,890	7.68%	-6,028	-9.46%	63,674
Lafayette	3,977	51.91%	3,288	42.91%	397	5.18%	689	9.00%	7,662
Langlade	6,478	63.60%	3,250	31.91%	458	4.49%	3,228	31.69%	10,186
Lincoln	8,401	57.10%	5,371	36.51%	940	6.39%	3,030	20.59%	14,712
Manitowoc	23,244	56.99%	14,538	35.64%	3,004	7.37%	8,706	21.35%	40,786
Marathon	39,014	56.12%	26,481	38.09%	4,023	5.79%	12,533	18.03%	69,518
Marinette	13,122	64.50%	6,409	31.50%	812	4.00%	6,713	33.00%	20,343
Marquette	4,709	59.68%	2,808	35.58%	374	4.74%	1,901	24.10%	7,891
Menominee	267	20.41%	1,002	76.61%	39	2.98%	-735	-56.20%	1,308
Milwaukee	126,069	28.58%	288,822	65.48%	26,162	5.94%	-162,753	-36.90%	441,053
Monroe	11,356	57.65%	7,052	35.80%	1,291	6.55%	4,354	21.85%	19,699
Oconto	13,345	66.04%	5,940	29.40%	921	4.56%	7,405	36.64%	20,206
Oneida	12,132	56.35%	8,109	37.66%	1,290	5.99%	4,023	18.69%	21,531
Outagamie	49,879	53.10%	38,068	40.53%	5,986	6.37%	11,811	12.57%	93,933
Ozaukee	30,464	55.84%	20,170	36.97%	3,926	7.19%	10,204	18.87%	54,560
Pepin	2,206	59.06%	1,344	35.98%	185	4.96%	862	23.08%	3,735
Pierce	11,272	52.73%	8,399	39.29%	1,705	7.98%	2,873	13.44%	21,376
Polk	13,810	60.72%	7,565	33.26%	1,370	6.02%	6,245	27.46%	22,745
Portage	17,305	44.84%	18,529	48.02%	2,755	7.14%	-1,224	-3.18%	38,589
Price	4,559	60.24%	2,667	35.24%	342	4.52%	1,892	25.00%	7,568
Racine	46,681	49.50%	42,641	45.22%	4,980	5.28%	4,040	4.28%	94,302
Richland	4,013	49.73%	3,569	44.23%	487	6.04%	444	5.50%	8,069
Rock	31,493	41.40%	39,339	51.71%	5,242	6.89%	-7,846	-10.31%	76,074
Rusk	4,564	64.39%	2,171	30.63%	353	4.98%	2,393	33.76%	7,088
Sauk	14,799	47.20%	14,690	46.85%	1,868	5.95%	109	0.35%	31,357
Sawyer	5,185	56.75%	3,503	38.34%	449	4.91%	1,682	18.41%	9,137
Shawano	12,769	64.46%	6,068	30.63%	973	4.91%	6,701	33.83%	19,810
Sheboygan	32,514	54.40%	23,000	38.48%	4,252	7.12%	9,514	15.92%	59,766
St. Croix	26,222	55.19%	17,482	36.80%	3,804	8.01%	8,740	18.39%	47,508
Taylor	6,579	69.46%	2,393	25.27%	499	5.27%	4,186	44.19%	9,471
Trempealeau	7,366	53.82%	5,636	41.18%	685	5.00%	1,730	12.64%	13,687
Vernon	7,004	49.06%	6,371	44.63%	900	6.31%	633	4.43%	14,275
Vilas	8,166	60.00%	4,770	35.05%	675	4.95%	3,396	24.95%	13,611
Walworth	28,863	56.16%	18,710	36.41%	3,818	7.43%	10,153	19.75%	51,391
Washburn	5,436	59.13%	3,282	35.70%	475	5.17%	2,154	23.43%	9,193
Washington	51,740	67.41%	20,852	27.17%	4,165	5.42%	30,888	40.24%	76,757
Waukesha	142,543	59.99%	79,224	33.34%	15,826	6.67%	63,319	26.65%	237,593
Waupaca	16,209	62.12%	8,451	32.39%	1,435	5.49%	7,758	29.73%	26,095
Waushara	7,667	63.50%	3,791	31.40%	616	5.10%	3,876	32.10%	12,074
Winnebago	43,445	49.86%	37,047	42.52%	6,643	7.62%	6,398	7.34%	87,135
Wood	21,498	56.85%	14,225	37.61%	2,095	5.54%	7,273	19.24%	37,818
Totals	1,405,284	47.22%	1,382,536	46.45%	188,330	6.33%	22,748	0.77%	2,976,150

 

County Flips:

Democratic   Hold

Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Adams (largest city: Adams)
• Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
• Columbia (largest city: Portage)
• Crawford (largest city: Prairie du Chien)
• Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
• Dunn (largest city: Menomonie)
• Forest (largest city: Crandon)
• Grant (largest city: Platteville)
• Jackson (largest city: Black River Falls)
• Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
• Kenosha (largest city: Kenosha)
• Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
• Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
• Marquette (largest city: Montello)
• Pepin (largest city: Durand)
• Price (largest city: Park Falls)
• Racine (largest city: Racine)
• Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
• Sauk (largest city: Baraboo)
• Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
• Trempealeau (largest city: Arcadia)
• Vernon (largest city: Viroqua)
• Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)

Recount

On November 25, 2016, with 90 minutes remaining on the deadline to petition for a recount to the state's electoral body, 2016 Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein filed for a recount of the election results in Wisconsin. She signaled she intended to file for similar recounts in the subsequent days in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.^[21] On November 26, the Clinton campaign announced that they were joining the recount effort in Wisconsin.^[22] Trump filed a lawsuit to halt the process, but it was rejected by a federal judge.^[23]

The final result of the recount confirmed Trump's victory in Wisconsin, where he gained a net 131 votes.^[24] Trump gained 837 additional votes, while Clinton gained 706 additional votes.^[25]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Wisconsin
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2016 United States presidential election recounts

Notes

1. Republicans Richard Nixon in 1972, George W. Bush in 2000, and Mitt Romney in 2012 also all won Iron County, however, they only received pluralities.

References

1. "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics – Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov.
2. "White working-class voters flipped Wisconsin red". Retrieved March 10, 2017.
3. Cohn, Nate (November 9, 2016). "Why Trump Won: Working-Class Whites". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
4. "NBC News Exit Poll in Wisconsin: Trump Energizes White Working Class". NBC News. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
5. "2016 National Popular Vote Tracker: Overall Vote".
6. "WIGP Spring Gathering & Presidential Nominating Convention Sat. 4/16 in Madison". Wisconsin Green Party. April 1, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
7. "Happy to report that I received a delegate in... – William P. Kreml". Retrieved April 20, 2016.
8. . usaelections-2016.com. Archived from the original on October 19, 2016. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
9. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
10. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
11. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
12. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
13. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
14. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
15. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
16. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
17. 2016 Wisconsin election forecast (538), accessed October 20, 2020
18. Trump Out-Campaigned Clinton by 50 Percent in Key Battleground States in Final Stretch. NBC News. 13 November 2016.
19. Hillary Clinton was caught by surprise by Wisconsin loss, she says in her book, 'What Happened'. Journal Sentinel. 12 September 2017
20. PresidentContest RecountResult WardByWard withDistricts.xlsx (Microsoft Excel), Wisconsin Elections Commission, December 12, 2016
21. Adam Howard (November 25, 2016). "Election recount process to begin in Wisconsin after Green Party petition". nbcnews.com.
22. Scott, Eugene. "Clinton to join recount that Trump calls 'scam'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
23. Presidential recount in Wauwatosa yields little change. Article by Chris Barlow from 13 December 2016 for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
24. Levy, Marc. . ABC News. Archived from the original on December 12, 2016. Retrieved December 12, 2016.
25. Matthew DeFour, Wisconsin State Journal. "Completed Wisconsin recount widens Donald Trump's lead by 131 votes". madison.com.

Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 16, 2020), , The Washington Post, archived from the original on September 17, 2020

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• FoxNews full election coverage, Wisconsin