2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout	60.4%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 756,764 539,398 Percentage 57.60% 41.06%
County Results Trump   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western Delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital and largest city of Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the White vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate. 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the Evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate.^[3] Biden managed to very narrowly flip Warren County, winning it with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%. Nonetheless, Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Chickasaw or Panola Counties since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Mississippi Republican primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts.^[4]

2020 Mississippi Republican primary^[5]

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	240,125	98.6%	40
Bill Weld	2,292	0.9%	0
Rocky De La Fuente	1,078	0.4%	0
Total	243,495	100%	40

Democratic primary

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race.^[6]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary § MSresults.[edit]

2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary^[7]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[8]
Joe Biden	222,160	80.96	34
Bernie Sanders	40,657	14.82	2
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	6,933	2.53
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	1,550	0.56
Tulsi Gabbard	1,003	0.37
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	562	0.20
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	450	0.16
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	440	0.16
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	378	0.14
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	258	0.09
Total	274,391	100%	36

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[9]	Safe R	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections^[10]	Safe R	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[11]	Safe R	July 14, 2020
Politico^[12]	Safe R	September 8, 2020
RCP^[13]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
Niskanen^[14]	Safe R	July 26, 2020
CNN^[15]	Safe R	August 3, 2020
The Economist^[16]	Likely R	September 2, 2020
CBS News^[17]	Likely R	August 16, 2020
270towin^[18]	Safe R	August 2, 2020
ABC News^[19]	Safe R	July 31, 2020
NPR^[20]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
NBC News^[21]	Safe R	August 6, 2020
538^[22]	Likely R	November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided ^[a]	Margin
270 to Win	October 17–27, 2020	November 3, 2020	40.0%	57.0%	3.0%	Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	39.6%	55.5%	4.9%	Trump +15.9
Average			39.8%	56.3%	3.9%	Trump +16.5

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,461 (LV)	± 4%	61%^[c]	37%	-	-	–	–
Data For Progress	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	562 (LV)	± 4.1%	55%	41%	2%	1%	1%^[d]	–
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 23–26, 2020	507 (LV)	± 5.3%	55%	41%	-	-	3%^[e]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,116 (LV)	–	62%	37%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	782 (LV)	–	55%	44%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	607 (LV)	–	61%	36%	-	-	–	3%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance^[A]	Aug 28–30, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	50%	40%	No voters	-	No voters^[f]	6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy^[B]	Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	53%^[g]	43%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	733 (LV)	–	59%	39%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	425 (LV)	–	63%	35%	-	-	–	2%
Chism Strategies (D)	Jun 2–4, 2020	568 (LV)	± 4.1%	50%	41%	-	-	6%^[h]	3%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College	Apr 8–9, 2020	508 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	38%	-	-	7%	7%
Mason-Dixon	Feb 26–28, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	56%	41%	-	-	–	3%

Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size^[b] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Mason-Dixon Feb 26–28, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 59% 36% 5%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi^[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	756,764	57.60%	-0.26%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	539,398	41.06%	+1.00%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	8,026	0.61%	-0.58%
	Independent	Kanye West Michelle Tidball	3,657	0.28%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	1,498	0.11%	-0.20%
	Prohibition	Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker	1,317	0.10%
	American Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	1,279	0.10%	-0.23%
	American Solidarity	Brian Carroll Amar Patel	1,161	0.09%
	Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard	659	0.05%
	Write-in
Total votes			1,313,759	100%

Results by county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Other votes		Total votes
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Adams	41.40%	5,696	57.54%	7,917	0.35%	48	0.71%	98	13,759
Alcorn	81.16%	12,818	17.62%	2,782	0.75%	118	0.47%	75	15,793
Amite	62.58%	4,503	36.41%	2,620	0.29%	21	0.72%	52	7,196
Attala	58.69%	5,178	40.15%	3,542	0.41%	36	0.76%	67	8,823
Benton	59.92%	2,570	39.15%	1,679	0.28%	12	0.65%	28	4,289
Bolivar	33.99%	4,671	64.78%	8,904	0.35%	48	0.88%	121	13,744
Calhoun	70.18%	4,625	28.86%	1,902	0.23%	15	0.73%	48	6,590
Carroll	68.83%	3,924	30.33%	1,729	0.25%	14	0.60%	34	5,701
Chickasaw	51.28%	4,175	46.80%	3,810	0.92%	75	0.99%	81	8,141
Choctaw	71.06%	3,001	28.06%	1,185	0.38%	16	0.50%	21	4,223
Claiborne	13.55%	603	84.78%	3,772	0.25%	11	1.41%	63	4,449
Clarke	64.97%	5,417	34.04%	2,838	0.34%	28	0.66%	55	8,338
Clay	41.03%	4,181	57.36%	5,844	0.47%	48	1.13%	116	10,189
Coahoma	27.94%	2,375	70.82%	6,020	0.24%	20	1.00%	86	8,501
Copiah	48.51%	6,250	50.22%	6,470	0.45%	58	0.81%	105	12,883
Covington	62.54%	5,854	36.50%	3,416	0.35%	33	0.61%	57	9,360
DeSoto	61.03%	46,462	37.13%	28,265	0.95%	722	0.89%	675	76,124
Forrest	54.62%	17,290	43.45%	13,755	1.04%	329	0.89%	280	31,654
Franklin	65.52%	2,923	33.18%	1,480	0.47%	21	0.83%	37	4,461
George	87.91%	9,713	11.02%	1,218	0.49%	54	0.58%	64	11,049
Greene	82.48%	4,794	16.62%	966	0.34%	20	0.55%	32	5,812
Grenada	55.73%	6,081	43.39%	4,734	0.35%	38	0.53%	58	10,911
Hancock	76.98%	16,132	21.49%	4,504	0.87%	183	0.66%	138	20,957
Harrison	61.70%	46,822	36.54%	27,728	0.96%	726	0.80%	609	75,885
Hinds	25.09%	25,141	73.40%	73,550	0.40%	396	1.12%	1,121	100,208
Holmes	16.87%	1,369	81.18%	6,588	0.32%	26	1.63%	132	8,115
Humphreys	26.69%	1,118	72.00%	3,016	0.24%	10	1.09%	45	4,189
Issaquena	45.56%	308	52.51%	355	0.74%	5	1.18%	8	676
Itawamba	87.24%	9,438	11.54%	1,249	0.73%	79	0.49%	53	10,819
Jackson	66.54%	36,295	31.86%	17,375	0.87%	474	0.73%	399	54,543
Jasper	49.24%	4,302	49.69%	4,341	0.34%	30	0.72%	63	8,736
Jefferson	13.59%	531	85.13%	3,327	0.36%	14	0.92%	36	3,908
Jefferson Davis	40.79%	2,534	57.93%	3,599	0.26%	16	1.03%	64	6,213
Jones	70.54%	21,226	28.30%	8,517	0.56%	169	0.59%	179	30,091
Kemper	37.77%	1,787	61.02%	2,887	0.21%	10	1.00%	47	4,731
Lafayette	55.28%	12,949	42.99%	10,070	1.03%	242	0.69%	162	23,423
Lamar	72.57%	20,704	25.73%	7,340	0.93%	264	0.78%	222	28,530
Lauderdale	57.50%	17,967	41.48%	12,960	0.48%	149	0.55%	171	31,247
Lawrence	64.80%	4,285	34.18%	2,260	0.29%	19	0.74%	49	6,613
Leake	56.83%	5,228	42.36%	3,897	0.21%	19	0.61%	56	9,200
Lee	65.51%	24,207	32.98%	12,189	0.79%	292	0.72%	266	36,954
Leflore	28.72%	3,129	70.21%	7,648	0.28%	31	0.78%	85	10,893
Lincoln	69.02%	11,596	30.00%	5,040	0.38%	64	0.60%	101	16,801
Lowndes	50.66%	13,800	48.04%	13,087	0.67%	182	0.63%	172	27,241
Madison	55.16%	31,091	43.36%	24,440	0.62%	351	0.85%	479	56,361
Marion	67.94%	8,273	31.10%	3,787	0.36%	44	0.60%	73	12,177
Marshall	47.83%	7,566	50.94%	8,057	0.30%	48	0.92%	146	15,817
Monroe	64.76%	11,177	34.03%	5,874	0.54%	93	0.67%	115	17,259
Montgomery	57.48%	2,917	41.79%	2,121	0.18%	9	0.56%	28	5,075
Neshoba	71.09%	8,320	27.86%	3,260	0.39%	46	0.66%	77	11,703
Newton	68.71%	6,997	30.20%	3,075	0.46%	47	0.62%	64	10,183
Noxubee	23.23%	1,240	75.67%	4,040	0.24%	13	0.85%	46	5,339
Oktibbeha	45.57%	9,004	52.13%	10,299	1.29%	255	1.01%	199	19,757
Panola	51.58%	8,060	47.37%	7,403	0.31%	48	0.74%	116	15,627
Pearl River	81.53%	19,595	17.26%	4,148	0.67%	160	0.54%	130	24,033
Perry	76.06%	4,500	23.02%	1,362	0.35%	21	0.56%	33	5,916
Pike	48.84%	8,479	49.80%	8,646	0.52%	91	0.84%	145	17,361
Pontotoc	80.43%	11,550	18.20%	2,614	0.72%	103	0.65%	94	14,361
Prentiss	78.64%	8,370	20.23%	2,153	0.66%	70	0.48%	51	10,644
Quitman	31.80%	1,026	66.65%	2,150	0.37%	12	1.18%	38	3,226
Rankin	71.89%	50,895	26.62%	18,847	0.78%	555	0.71%	502	70,799
Scott	58.56%	6,285	40.34%	4,330	0.35%	38	0.75%	80	10,733
Sharkey	31.52%	688	67.11%	1,465	0.41%	9	0.96%	21	2,183
Simpson	64.62%	7,635	34.17%	4,037	0.41%	49	0.79%	94	11,815
Smith	77.55%	6,458	21.51%	1,791	0.40%	33	0.54%	45	8,327
Stone	75.70%	5,964	22.87%	1,802	0.72%	57	0.70%	55	7,878
Sunflower	28.91%	2,799	70.04%	6,781	0.19%	18	0.84%	83	9,681
Tallahatchie	43.76%	2,488	54.62%	3,105	0.35%	20	1.27%	72	5,685
Tate	66.50%	8,707	31.95%	4,183	0.64%	84	0.91%	119	13,093
Tippah	79.73%	8,054	19.17%	1,937	0.43%	43	0.67%	68	10,102
Tishomingo	86.81%	7,933	11.59%	1,059	1.06%	97	0.54%	49	9,138
Tunica	25.97%	926	72.37%	2,580	0.25%	9	1.41%	50	3,565
Union	81.79%	10,373	17.03%	2,160	0.64%	81	0.54%	69	12,683
Walthall	59.28%	4,220	39.82%	2,835	0.27%	19	0.63%	45	7,119
Warren	49.23%	10,365	49.60%	10,442	0.44%	93	0.73%	153	21,053
Washington	29.39%	5,300	69.33%	12,503	0.29%	53	0.98%	178	18,034
Wayne	62.72%	6,307	36.04%	3,624	0.45%	45	0.80%	80	10,056
Webster	79.54%	4,291	19.33%	1,043	0.50%	27	0.63%	34	5,395
Wilkinson	32.08%	1,324	66.61%	2,749	0.29%	12	1.02%	42	4,127
Winston	55.35%	5,112	43.74%	4,040	0.44%	41	0.46%	43	9,236
Yalobusha	56.17%	3,671	42.62%	2,785	0.40%	26	0.81%	53	6,535
Yazoo	46.30%	4,832	52.66%	5,496	0.20%	21	0.85%	87	10,436

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)

Results by congressional district

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	64.8%	33.8%	Trent Kelly
2nd	35.2%	63.7%	Bennie Thompson
3rd	60.1%	38.6%	Michael Guest
4th	68.3%	30.3%	Steven Palazzo

Analysis

Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. Trump easily carried the state on election day by a 16.54% margin.

Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016. In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the simultaneous senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.

In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial previous one, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was rejected. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to get rid of the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.

This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississipians supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippians supported Biden.^[24]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Mississippi
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
4. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
5. "Someone else" with 3%
6. "Refused" with no voters
7. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
8. "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
2. Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 27, 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
4. Harrison, Bobby (February 27, 2020). "Who's on the ballot for Mississippi's March 10 primary?". Mississippi Today. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
5. "2020 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
6. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
7. . Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
8. "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
9. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
10. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
11. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
13. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
14. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
15. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
16. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
17. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
18. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
19. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
20. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
21. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
22. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
23. . Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 14, 2020. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
24. "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Mississippi

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Mississippi", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Mississippi: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Mississippi". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Mississippi at Ballotpedia