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2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout68.67%
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 501,614 401,894
Percentage 54.29% 43.50%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[4] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.[5][6]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[7] He also won over Native Americans, garnering 60–90% of the vote.[8][9] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created.[10][11] This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.[12] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. President after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.

Primary elections Edit

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary Edit

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[13]

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 144,067 91.25 22
Uncommitted 13,809 8.75 0
Total 157,876 100% 22

Democratic primary Edit

2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary[14]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 181,700 73.30 30
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 37,435 15.10 4
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,552 5.87
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,026 1.62
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 2,735 1.10
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 971 0.39
Uncommitted Delegate 6,461 2.61
Total 247,880 100% 34

Libertarian primary Edit

2020 New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary
 
June 2, 2020 2024 →
← NE
       
Candidate Jo Jorgensen
(nominee)[a]
Uncommitted Lincoln Chafee
(withdrawn)
Home state South Carolina N/A Wyoming
Popular vote 520 330 158
Percentage 33.12% 21.02% 10.06%

       
Candidate Jacob Hornberger
(lost)[a]
Adam Kokesh
(lost)[a]
Sam Robb
(lost)[a]
Home state Virginia Indiana Pennsylvania
Popular vote 154 124 90
Percentage 9.81% 7.90% 5.73%

 
Election results by county
  Jo Jorgensen
  Uncommitted
  Tie
  No votes
New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020[18]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jo Jorgensen (nominee)[a] 520 33.12%
Uncommitted 330 21.02%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) 158 10.06%
Jacob Hornberger (lost)[a] 154 9.81%
Adam Kokesh (lost)[a] 124 7.90%
Sam Robb (lost)[a] 90 5.73%
John Monds (lost)[a] 63 4.01%
Dan Behrman (lost)[a] 58 3.69%
Arvin Vohra (lost)[a] 39 2.48%
James Ogle (lost)[a] 34 2.17%
Total 1,557 100%

General election Edit

Final predictions Edit

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[19] Solid D
Inside Elections[20] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Likely D
Politico[22] Likely D
RCP[23] Lean D
Niskanen[24] Safe D
CNN[25] Solid D
The Economist[26] Safe D
CBS News[27] Likely D
270towin[28] Likely D
ABC News[29] Solid D
NPR[30] Likely D
NBC News[31] Likely D
538[32] Solid D

Polling Edit

Graphical summary Edit

Aggregate polls Edit

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.5% 40.5% 6.0% Biden +13.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.8% 42.3% 3.9% Biden +11.5
Average 53.7% 41.4% 4.9% Biden +12.3

Polls Edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,481 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[d] 56%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal Oct 23–29, 2020 1,180 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% 3%[e] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,719 (LV) 46% 52%
GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[A] Oct 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 54%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 53% 2% 2%[f] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,015 (LV) 44% 54% 1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 39% 54%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,087 (LV) 43% 56% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 904 (LV) 48% 49% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 506 (LV) 50% 49% 1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report Jun 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% 8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute April 25, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] Apr 20–21, 2020 1,091 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 52%
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 55%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 59%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%

Results Edit

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico[33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
501,614 54.29 +6.03
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
401,894 43.50 +3.46
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
12,585 1.36 −7.98
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
4,426 0.48 −0.76
Constitution Sheila "Samm" Tittle[g]
David Sandige
1,806 0.20 +0.01
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
1,640 0.18 +0.04
Total votes 923,965 100%
Democratic win

By county Edit

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico by county[34]
County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
% # % # % # % # #
Bernalillo 61.01% 193,757 36.57% 116,135 2.42% 7,698 24.44% 77,622 317,590
Catron 25.58% 595 73.00% 1,698 1.42% 33 -47.42% -1,103 2,326
Chaves 28.43% 6,381 69.76% 15,656 1.81% 406 -41.33% -9,275 22,443
Cibola 53.30% 4,745 44.65% 3,975 2.05% 183 8.65% 770 8,903
Colfax 43.40% 2,611 54.37% 3,271 2.23% 134 -10.97% -660 6,016
Curry 28.52% 4,307 69.16% 10,444 2.32% 350 -40.64% -6,137 15,101
De Baca 25.64% 231 72.81% 656 1.55% 14 -47.17% -425 901
Doña Ana 58.03% 47,957 39.69% 32,802 2.28% 1,882 18.34% 15,155 82,641
Eddy 23.36% 5,424 75.16% 17,454 1.48% 344 -51.80% -12,030 23,222
Grant 52.58% 7,590 45.4% 6,553 2.02% 292 7.18% 1,037 14,435
Guadalupe 56.37% 1,234 41.89% 917 1.74% 38 14.48% 317 2,189
Harding 35.45% 179 63.17% 319 1.38% 7 -27.72% -140 505
Hidalgo 41.69% 823 56.74% 1,120 1.57% 31 -15.05% -297 1,974
Lea 19.41% 4,061 79.03% 16,531 1.56% 326 -59.62% -12,470 20,918
Lincoln 30.99% 3,194 67.36% 6,942 1.65% 170 -36.37% -3,748 10,306
Los Alamos 61.45% 7,554 34.80% 4,278 3.75% 461 26.65% 3,276 12,293
Luna 43.97% 3,563 54.40% 4,408 1.63% 132 -10.43% -845 8,103
McKinley 68.07% 18,029 29.45% 7,801 2.48% 656 38.62% 10,228 26,486
Mora 64.97% 1,745 33.62% 903 1.41% 38 31.35% 842 2,686
Otero 36.00% 8,485 61.60% 14,521 2.40% 565 -25.60% -6,036 23,571
Quay 29.60% 1,170 68.00% 2,634 1.78% 69 -38.40% -1,464 3,873
Rio Arriba 66.09% 10,990 32.52% 5,408 1.38% 230 33.57% 5,582 16,628
Roosevelt 27.27% 1,802 70.13% 4,634 2.60% 172 -42.86% -2,832 6,608
Sandoval 53.01% 40,588 44.64% 34,174 2.35% 1,800 8.37% 6,414 76,562
San Juan 34.58% 18,083 62.86% 32,874 2.56% 1,337 -28.28% -14,791 52,294
San Miguel 68.41% 7,888 29.66% 3,421 1.93% 222 38.75% 4,467 11,531
Santa Fe 76.05% 62,530 22.29% 18,329 1.66% 1,368 53.76% 44,201 82,227
Sierra 38.10% 2,265 59.58% 3,542 2.32% 138 -21.48% -1,277 5,945
Socorro 51.98% 3,722 45.46% 3,255 1.86% 183 6.52% 467 7,160
Taos 76.37% 13,121 21.63% 3,715 2.00% 345 54.74% 9,406 17,181
Torrance 32.19% 2,344 65.54% 4,772 2.27% 165 -33.35% -2,428 7,281
Union 21.41% 383 77.59% 1,388 1.00% 18 -56.18% -1,005 1,789
Valencia 44.19% 14,263 53.8% 17,364 2.01% 650 -9.61% -3,101 32,277
Totals 54.29% 501,614 43.50% 401,894 2.21% 20,457 10.79% 99,720 923,965
 
 

By congressional district Edit

Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 37.4% 60.2% Deb Haaland
2nd 54.9% 43.1% Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
3rd 40.1% 57.7% Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

Analysis Edit

The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, the Land of Enchantment has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.[35]

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).

Aftermath Edit

On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit.[36][37] Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith[38] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.[39]

See also Edit

Notes Edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Jorgensen was nominated at the 2020 Libertarian National Convention on May 23,[16] ten days before the New Mexico primary, which was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[17]
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  6. ^ "other" with 2%
  7. ^ The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship for President with William Mohr as his running mate, but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Ben Ray Luján's campaign for the 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Majority Institute, a communications firm which supports the Democratic Party

References Edit

  1. ^ "New Mexico Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "New Mexico Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  5. ^ "New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  6. ^ Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumhil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (November 21, 2020). "New Mexico President: General Election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  7. ^ "New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ Caldera, Camille. "Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  9. ^ "Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue, defying national rural trend". Navajo Times. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  10. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Colfax County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  11. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Hidalgo County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  12. ^ Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau. "Valencia County's 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  13. ^ "New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Primary Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  15. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  16. ^ Doherty, Brian (May 23, 2020). "Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Party Presidential Nomination". Reason. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  17. ^ Saul, Stephanie; Corasaniti, Nick (May 27, 2020). "16 States Have Postponed Primaries During the Pandemic. Here's a List". The New York Times. Retrieved July 18, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Primary Election Results Statewide Summary" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Link under "2020 Primary Election Results". July 28, 2020. p. 12. Retrieved June 7, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: location (link)
  19. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  23. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  24. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  25. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  26. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  29. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  30. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  31. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  33. ^ "Federal". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  34. ^ "Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
  35. ^ Silver, Nate (March 8, 2016). "Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  36. ^ . MSN. Archived from the original on January 21, 2021. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  37. ^ "Complaint" (PDF). UnAmericanBar. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  38. ^ "Complaint". UnAmericanBar. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  39. ^ "Trump asks to drop voting allegations in New Mexico, for now". Associated Press. April 20, 2021.

Further reading Edit

External links Edit

2020, united, states, presidential, election, mexico, main, article, 2020, united, states, presidential, election, held, tuesday, november, 2020, part, 2020, united, states, presidential, election, which, states, plus, district, columbia, participated, mexico,. Main article 2020 United States presidential election The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday November 3 2020 as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated 2 New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party s nominee incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College 3 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico 2016 November 3 2020 2024 Turnout68 67 Nominee Joe Biden Donald TrumpParty Democratic RepublicanHome state Delaware FloridaRunning mate Kamala Harris Mike PenceElectoral vote 5 0Popular vote 501 614 401 894Percentage 54 29 43 50 County resultsPrecinct resultsBiden 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 100 Trump 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 100 Tie No Data President before electionDonald TrumpRepublican Elected President Joe BidenDemocraticNew Mexico was won by Biden by a 10 79 margin of victory Prior to the election most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win or a safe blue state Biden scored victories in all of the state s three largest counties Bernalillo Dona Ana and Santa Fe counties home to Albuquerque Las Cruces and Santa Fe respectively all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points 4 Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double digits in the state 5 6 Per exit polls by the Associated Press much of Biden s strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters from whom he garnered 61 of the vote These included 54 of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70 of Spanish Americans Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian white voters in the state 49 to Trump s 48 7 He also won over Native Americans garnering 60 90 of the vote 8 9 53 of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID 19 pandemic and these voters broke for Biden by 75 23 This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County or Hidalgo County since 1920 when it was created 10 11 This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate 12 Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U S President after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state s history Contents 1 Primary elections 1 1 Republican primary 1 2 Democratic primary 1 3 Libertarian primary 2 General election 2 1 Final predictions 2 2 Polling 2 2 1 Graphical summary 2 2 2 Aggregate polls 2 2 3 Polls 2 3 Results 2 3 1 By county 2 4 By congressional district 3 Analysis 4 Aftermath 5 See also 6 Notes 7 References 8 Further reading 9 External linksPrimary elections EditThe primary elections were held on June 2 2020 Republican primary Edit Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary and thus received all of the state s 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention 13 2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary Candidate Votes EstimateddelegatesDonald Trump 144 067 91 25 22Uncommitted 13 809 8 75 0Total 157 876 100 22Democratic primary Edit This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary NMresults edit 2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary 14 Candidate Votes Delegates 15 Joe Biden 181 700 73 30 30Bernie Sanders withdrawn 37 435 15 10 4Elizabeth Warren withdrawn 14 552 5 87Andrew Yang withdrawn 4 026 1 62Tulsi Gabbard withdrawn 2 735 1 10Deval Patrick withdrawn 971 0 39Uncommitted Delegate 6 461 2 61Total 247 880 100 34 Libertarian primary Edit Main article 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries 2020 New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary nbsp June 2 2020 2024 NE nbsp nbsp nbsp Candidate Jo Jorgensen nominee a Uncommitted Lincoln Chafee withdrawn Home state South Carolina N A WyomingPopular vote 520 330 158Percentage 33 12 21 02 10 06 nbsp nbsp nbsp Candidate Jacob Hornberger lost a Adam Kokesh lost a Sam Robb lost a Home state Virginia Indiana PennsylvaniaPopular vote 154 124 90Percentage 9 81 7 90 5 73 nbsp Election results by county Jo Jorgensen Uncommitted Tie No votesNew Mexico Libertarian presidential primary June 2 2020 18 Candidate Votes PercentageJo Jorgensen nominee a 520 33 12 Uncommitted 330 21 02 Lincoln Chafee withdrawn 158 10 06 Jacob Hornberger lost a 154 9 81 Adam Kokesh lost a 124 7 90 Sam Robb lost a 90 5 73 John Monds lost a 63 4 01 Dan Behrman lost a 58 3 69 Arvin Vohra lost a 39 2 48 James Ogle lost a 34 2 17 Total 1 557 100 General election EditFinal predictions Edit Source RankingThe Cook Political Report 19 Solid DInside Elections 20 Solid DSabato s Crystal Ball 21 Likely DPolitico 22 Likely DRCP 23 Lean DNiskanen 24 Safe DCNN 25 Solid DThe Economist 26 Safe DCBS News 27 Likely D270towin 28 Likely DABC News 29 Solid DNPR 30 Likely DNBC News 31 Likely D538 32 Solid DPolling Edit Graphical summary Edit Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues Aggregate polls Edit Source of pollaggregation Dates administered Dates updated JoeBidenDemocratic DonaldTrumpRepublican Other Undecided b Margin270 to Win October 6 November 1 2020 November 3 2020 53 5 40 5 6 0 Biden 13 0FiveThirtyEight until November 2 2020 November 3 2020 53 8 42 3 3 9 Biden 11 5Average 53 7 41 4 4 9 Biden 12 3Polls Edit Poll source Date s administered Samplesize c Marginof error DonaldTrumpRepublican JoeBidenDemocratic JoJorgensenLibertarian HowieHawkinsGreen Other UndecidedSurveyMonkey Axios Oct 20 Nov 2 2020 1 481 LV 3 5 42 d 56 Research amp Polling Inc Albuquerque Journal Oct 23 29 2020 1 180 LV 2 9 42 54 3 e 1 SurveyMonkey Axios Oct 1 28 2020 2 719 LV 46 52 GBAO Strategies Ben Ray Lujan D A Oct 14 17 2020 600 LV 4 0 41 54 Public Policy Polling NM Political Report Sep 30 Oct 1 2020 886 LV 3 3 39 53 2 2 f 4 SurveyMonkey Axios Sep 1 30 2020 1 015 LV 44 54 1 Research amp Polling Inc Albuquerque Journal Aug 26 Sep 2 2020 1 123 LV 2 9 39 54 SurveyMonkey Axios Aug 1 31 2020 1 087 LV 43 56 2 SurveyMonkey Axios Jul 1 31 2020 904 LV 48 49 2 SurveyMonkey Axios Jun 8 30 2020 506 LV 50 49 1 Public Policy Polling NM Political Report Jun 12 13 2020 740 V 3 6 39 53 8 Public Policy Polling The Majority Institute Archived April 25 2020 at the Wayback Machine B Apr 20 21 2020 1 091 RV 3 1 40 52 Emerson College Jan 3 6 2020 967 RV 3 1 46 54 Former candidatesDonald Trump vs Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date s administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump R PeteButtigieg D Emerson College Jan 3 6 2020 967 RV 3 1 45 55 Donald Trump vs Bernie Sanders Poll source Date s administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump R BernieSanders D Emerson College Jan 3 6 2020 967 RV 3 1 41 59 Donald Trump vs Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date s administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump R ElizabethWarren D Emerson College Jan 3 6 2020 967 RV 3 1 46 54 Results Edit 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico 33 Party Candidate Votes Democratic Joe BidenKamala Harris 501 614 54 29 6 03Republican Donald TrumpMike Pence 401 894 43 50 3 46Libertarian Jo JorgensenSpike Cohen 12 585 1 36 7 98Green Howie HawkinsAngela Walker 4 426 0 48 0 76Constitution Sheila Samm Tittle g David Sandige 1 806 0 20 0 01Socialism and Liberation Gloria La RivaSunil Freeman 1 640 0 18 0 04Total votes 923 965 100 Democratic winBy county Edit 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico by county 34 County Joe BidenDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total Bernalillo 61 01 193 757 36 57 116 135 2 42 7 698 24 44 77 622 317 590Catron 25 58 595 73 00 1 698 1 42 33 47 42 1 103 2 326Chaves 28 43 6 381 69 76 15 656 1 81 406 41 33 9 275 22 443Cibola 53 30 4 745 44 65 3 975 2 05 183 8 65 770 8 903Colfax 43 40 2 611 54 37 3 271 2 23 134 10 97 660 6 016Curry 28 52 4 307 69 16 10 444 2 32 350 40 64 6 137 15 101De Baca 25 64 231 72 81 656 1 55 14 47 17 425 901Dona Ana 58 03 47 957 39 69 32 802 2 28 1 882 18 34 15 155 82 641Eddy 23 36 5 424 75 16 17 454 1 48 344 51 80 12 030 23 222Grant 52 58 7 590 45 4 6 553 2 02 292 7 18 1 037 14 435Guadalupe 56 37 1 234 41 89 917 1 74 38 14 48 317 2 189Harding 35 45 179 63 17 319 1 38 7 27 72 140 505Hidalgo 41 69 823 56 74 1 120 1 57 31 15 05 297 1 974Lea 19 41 4 061 79 03 16 531 1 56 326 59 62 12 470 20 918Lincoln 30 99 3 194 67 36 6 942 1 65 170 36 37 3 748 10 306Los Alamos 61 45 7 554 34 80 4 278 3 75 461 26 65 3 276 12 293Luna 43 97 3 563 54 40 4 408 1 63 132 10 43 845 8 103McKinley 68 07 18 029 29 45 7 801 2 48 656 38 62 10 228 26 486Mora 64 97 1 745 33 62 903 1 41 38 31 35 842 2 686Otero 36 00 8 485 61 60 14 521 2 40 565 25 60 6 036 23 571Quay 29 60 1 170 68 00 2 634 1 78 69 38 40 1 464 3 873Rio Arriba 66 09 10 990 32 52 5 408 1 38 230 33 57 5 582 16 628Roosevelt 27 27 1 802 70 13 4 634 2 60 172 42 86 2 832 6 608Sandoval 53 01 40 588 44 64 34 174 2 35 1 800 8 37 6 414 76 562San Juan 34 58 18 083 62 86 32 874 2 56 1 337 28 28 14 791 52 294San Miguel 68 41 7 888 29 66 3 421 1 93 222 38 75 4 467 11 531Santa Fe 76 05 62 530 22 29 18 329 1 66 1 368 53 76 44 201 82 227Sierra 38 10 2 265 59 58 3 542 2 32 138 21 48 1 277 5 945Socorro 51 98 3 722 45 46 3 255 1 86 183 6 52 467 7 160Taos 76 37 13 121 21 63 3 715 2 00 345 54 74 9 406 17 181Torrance 32 19 2 344 65 54 4 772 2 27 165 33 35 2 428 7 281Union 21 41 383 77 59 1 388 1 00 18 56 18 1 005 1 789Valencia 44 19 14 263 53 8 17 364 2 01 650 9 61 3 101 32 277Totals 54 29 501 614 43 50 401 894 2 21 20 457 10 79 99 720 923 965 nbsp Swing by countyLegend Democratic 5 7 5 Democratic 2 5 5 Democratic 0 2 5 Republican 0 2 5 Republican 2 5 5 Republican 5 7 5 Republican 7 5 10 Republican 10 12 5 Republican 12 5 15 nbsp Trend relative to the state by countyLegend Democratic 5 7 5 Democratic 2 5 5 Democratic 0 2 5 Republican 0 2 5 Republican 2 5 5 Republican 5 7 5 Republican 7 5 10 Republican 10 12 5 Republican 12 5 15 By congressional district Edit Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts District Trump Biden Representative1st 37 4 60 2 Deb Haaland2nd 54 9 43 1 Xochitl Torres SmallYvette Herrell3rd 40 1 57 7 Ben Ray LujanTeresa Leger FernandezAnalysis EditThe state used to be quite competitive voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W Bush in 2004 by 5 988 votes However the Land of Enchantment has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic Native American and urban voters to deliver victories 35 On the other hand Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3 46 earning 43 5 of the vote share and over 400 000 votes in total Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson who earned 9 34 of the vote in his home state Johnson did not run in 2020 That said Trump s 43 5 represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016 but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 42 84 and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 41 78 Aftermath EditOn December 14 2020 the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop boxes for the 2020 presidential election However on January 11 2021 five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden the campaign dropped the lawsuit 36 37 Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith 38 cited events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit in a three page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit Despite the withdrawal the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future 39 See also EditUnited States presidential elections in New Mexico 2020 New Mexico elections 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 United States electionsNotes Edit a b c d e f g h i j k l Jorgensen was nominated at the 2020 Libertarian National Convention on May 23 16 ten days before the New Mexico primary which was delayed due to the COVID 19 pandemic 17 Calculated by taking the difference of 100 and all other candidates combined Key A all adultsRV registered votersLV likely votersV unclear Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey Axios poll but more information available regarding sample size Other candidate with 3 other with 2 The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship for President with William Mohr as his running mate but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige Partisan clients Poll sponsored by Ben Ray Lujan s campaign for the 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico This poll was sponsored by the Majority Institute a communications firm which supports the Democratic PartyReferences Edit New Mexico Election Results 2020 The New York Times November 3 2020 Retrieved November 17 2020 Kelly Ben August 13 2018 US elections key dates When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign The Independent Archived from the original on August 2 2018 Retrieved January 3 2019 Distribution of Electoral Votes National Archives and Records Administration Retrieved January 3 2019 New Mexico Election Results The New York Times November 3 2020 ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 21 2020 New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls Biden vs Trump 270toWin com Retrieved November 21 2020 Bycoffe Aaron King Ritchie Koeze Ella Mehta Dhrumhil Mithani Jasmine Wolfe Julia November 21 2020 New Mexico President General Election Polls FiveThirtyEight Retrieved November 21 2020 New Mexico Voter Surveys How Different Groups Voted The New York Times November 3 2020 ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved November 9 2020 Caldera Camille Fact check There was strong Navajo support for Biden but numbers cited in claim have changed USA TODAY Retrieved November 12 2020 Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue defying national rural trend Navajo Times November 5 2020 Retrieved November 9 2020 The Political Graveyard Colfax County N M politicalgraveyard com Retrieved December 17 2020 The Political Graveyard Hidalgo County N M politicalgraveyard com Retrieved June 6 2022 Chief Dan Boyd Journal Capitol Bureau Valencia County s 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end www abqjournal com Retrieved December 17 2020 New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020 The Green Papers Retrieved June 3 2020 2020 Primary Election Results New Mexico Secretary of State Retrieved October 14 2020 Delegate Tracker interactives ap org Associated Press Retrieved June 3 2020 Doherty Brian May 23 2020 Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Party Presidential Nomination Reason Retrieved August 7 2020 Saul Stephanie Corasaniti Nick May 27 2020 16 States Have Postponed Primaries During the Pandemic Here s a List The New York Times Retrieved July 18 2020 2020 Primary Election Results Statewide Summary PDF New Mexico Secretary of State Link under 2020 Primary Election Results July 28 2020 p 12 Retrieved June 7 2021 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a CS1 maint location link 2020 POTUS Race ratings PDF The Cook Political Report Retrieved May 21 2019 POTUS Ratings Inside Elections insideelections com Retrieved May 21 2019 Larry J Sabato s Crystal Ball 2020 President crystalball centerforpolitics org Retrieved May 21 2019 2020 Election Forecast Politico November 19 2019 Battle for White House RCP April 19 2019 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23 2020 at the Wayback Machine Niskanen Center March 24 2020 retrieved April 19 2020 David Chalian Terence Burlij June 11 2020 Road to 270 CNN s debut Electoral College map for 2020 CNN Retrieved June 16 2020 Forecasting the US elections The Economist Retrieved July 7 2020 2020 Election Battleground Tracker CBS News July 12 2020 Retrieved July 13 2020 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map 270 to Win ABC News Race Ratings CBS News July 24 2020 Retrieved July 24 2020 Montanaro Domenico August 3 2020 2020 Electoral Map Ratings Trump Slides Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes NPR org Retrieved August 3 2020 Biden dominates the electoral map but here s how the race could tighten NBC News Retrieved August 6 2020 2020 Election Forecast FiveThirtyEight August 12 2020 Retrieved August 14 2020 Federal New Mexico Secretary of State Retrieved November 25 2020 Official Results New Mexico Secretary of State Retrieved December 13 2020 Silver Nate March 8 2016 Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump FiveThirtyEight Retrieved November 12 2020 President Donald Trump s campaign drops New Mexico election lawsuit MSN Archived from the original on January 21 2021 Retrieved January 15 2021 Complaint PDF UnAmericanBar Retrieved July 10 2021 Complaint UnAmericanBar Retrieved July 10 2021 Trump asks to drop voting allegations in New Mexico for now Associated Press April 20 2021 Further reading EditSummary State Laws on Presidential Electors PDF Washington DC National Association of Secretaries of State August 2020 New MexicoExternal links EditGovernment Documents Round Table of the American Library Association New Mexico Voting amp Elections Toolkits New Mexico Election Tools Deadlines Dates Rules and Links Vote org Oakland CA League of Women Voters of New Mexico state affiliate of the U S League of Women Voters New Mexico at Ballotpedia Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico amp oldid 1180102125, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, 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