2016 United States presidential election in Oregon

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[3]

2016 United States presidential election in Oregon

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout	70.26% (eligible voters) ^[1]^[2]
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state New York New York Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 1,002,106 782,403 Percentage 50.07% 39.09%
County Results Congressional District Results Precinct Results Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes

Treemap of the popular vote by county

The Democratic presidential candidate has won Oregon in every election since 1988. Clinton continued this tradition, carrying the state with 50% of the vote, a slightly reduced margin from Barack Obama in 2012, but with a slightly higher raw vote total, becoming only the second presidential candidate to win more than a million votes in the process. Trump received 39% of the vote, a smaller proportion of the vote compared to that of Mitt Romney in 2012. However, he did achieve a notable feat in carrying Columbia County, becoming the first Republican to do so since Herbert Hoover in 1928.^[4] In addition, this was also the first presidential election since 1976 in which Clackamas County backed the losing candidate, with Trump becoming the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying the county.

Primaries and Caucuses

Oregon held its presidential primaries on May 17, 2016.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2016 Oregon Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

• Bernie Sanders
• Hillary Clinton

The 74 delegates from Oregon were allocated in this way. 41 delegates were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district with district 2 split (district 2 was split because of its size with district 2a including the northern part of the district and 2b containing the southern part of the district). Another 20 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. The state also had 13 super delegates.^[5]

Oregon Democratic primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	360,829	56.24%	36	3	39
Hillary Clinton	269,846	42.06%	25	7	32
Misc.	10,920	1.70%	0	0	0
(available)	—		0	3	3
Total	641,595	100%	61	13	74
Source: The Green Papers, Oregon Secretary of State - Official Election Results

Republican primary

Main article: 2016 Oregon Republican presidential primary

Six candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

• Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
• Ben Carson (withdrawn)
• Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
• John Kasich (withdrawn)
• Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
• Donald Trump

The 28 delegates from Oregon were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote.^[6]

Oregon Republican primary, May 17, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	252,748	64.16%	18	0	18
Ted Cruz (withdrawn)	65,513	16.63%	5	0	5
John Kasich (withdrawn)	62,248	15.80%	5	0	5
Write-in	13,411	3.40%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	393,920	100.00%	28	0	28
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary

This state's Green Party held its presidential preference vote on May 21.

On May 22, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the preference vote.^[7]

Oregon Green Party presidential convention, April 17, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	-	-	6
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry	-	-	1
Uncommitted	-	-	1
Total	-	-	8

Libertarian primary

The Oregon primary was completed on May 27, 2016, the last day to receive mail-in ballots.

Oregon Libertarian presidential primary, May 27, 2016^[8][9]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Gary Johnson	422	57%
John McAfee	105	14%
Merry Susan Nehls	34	5%
Austin Petersen (write-in)	25	3%
Darryl Perry	21	3%
Keenan Dunham	18	2%
Derrick Michael Reid	10	1%
Rhett Smith	6	1%
NOTA (write-in)	2	0%
Other write-ins	91	12%
Total	742	100%

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party held a primary election on July 18. The party's ballot included Bernie Sanders (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Donald Trump (R), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), Gary Johnson (L), Jill Stein (G) and a "none of these candidates" choice.^[10] Bernie Sanders won the primary election with 31.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating Donald Trump's 30.08%. Hillary Clinton came in third, with 24.02% of the vote. Members were allowed to select one or more candidates.^[11]

Independent Party Presidential Ballot, July 18, 2016

Candidate	Party	Percentage
Bernie Sanders	Democrat	31.5%
Donald Trump	Republican	30.08%
Hillary Clinton	Democrat	24.02%
None of the above	N/A	9.17%
Gary Johnson	Libertarian	16.07%
Jill Stein	Green	9.49%
Ted Cruz	Republican	5.68%
John Kasich	Republican	12.27%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times^[12]	Safe D	November 6, 2016
CNN^[13]	Safe D	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[14]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[15]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[16]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[17]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[18]	Lean D	November 8, 2016
Fox News^[19]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Voting History

Main article: Political party strength in Oregon

Besides Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, the Republican party's candidate won Oregon in every year from 1948 through 1984. Since then, however, the Democratic candidate has carried the state in every election, including a narrow victory in the 2000 election. The last statewide election won by a Republican candidate was in the 2002 Senate election, all statewide elected officials as of election day were Democrats, and Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 12.09% in the 2012 election. Generally, Eastern Oregon is more conservative, while Western Oregon is more liberal.

Polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Oregon

Democrat Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted in the state except one and led by margins of 7 to 13 points in most polls. The average of the final 3 polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 44% to 36%.^[20]

Results

2016 U.S. presidential election in Oregon^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	1,002,106	50.07%
	Republican	Donald Trump	782,403	39.09%
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	94,231	4.71%
	Pacific Green Party/Progressive	Jill Stein	50,002	2.50%
		write-ins	72,594	3.63%
Total votes			2,001,336	100.00%

Hillary Clinton carried the state, lengthening the Democratic streak in Oregon to 8 straight contests.

Results by county

County	Hillary Clinton Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Baker	1,797	20.47%	6,218	70.83%	764	8.70%	-4,421	-50.36%	8,779
Benton	29,193	59.88%	13,445	27.58%	6,115	12.54%	15,748	32.30%	48,753
Clackamas	102,095	47.70%	88,392	41.30%	23,552	11.00%	20,703	6.40%	214,039
Clatsop	9,252	47.05%	8,138	41.39%	2,274	11.56%	1,114	5.66%	19,664
Columbia	10,167	38.20%	13,217	49.65%	3,234	12.15%	-3,050	-11.45%	26,618
Coos	10,448	33.37%	17,865	57.05%	3,000	9.58%	-7,417	-23.68%	31,313
Crook	2,637	21.66%	8,511	69.92%	1,024	8.42%	-5,874	-48.26%	12,172
Curry	4,300	34.10%	7,212	57.19%	1,099	8.71%	-2,912	-23.09%	12,611
Deschutes	42,444	43.07%	45,692	46.36%	10,421	10.57%	-3,248	-3.29%	98,557
Douglas	14,096	26.34%	34,582	64.61%	4,843	9.05%	-20,486	-38.27%	53,521
Gilliam	239	23.45%	671	65.85%	109	10.70%	-432	-42.40%	1,019
Grant	739	17.03%	3,210	73.96%	391	9.01%	-2,471	-56.93%	4,340
Harney	683	17.19%	2,912	73.28%	379	9.53%	-2,229	-56.09%	3,974
Hood River	6,510	59.67%	3,272	29.99%	1,128	10.34%	3,238	29.68%	10,910
Jackson	44,447	40.66%	53,870	49.27%	11,010	10.07%	-9,423	-8.61%	109,327
Jefferson	2,980	31.50%	5,483	57.97%	996	10.53%	-2,503	-26.47%	9,459
Josephine	13,453	30.19%	26,923	60.42%	4,184	9.39%	-13,470	-30.23%	44,560
Klamath	7,210	23.63%	20,435	66.98%	2,862	9.39%	-13,225	-43.35%	30,507
Lake	639	16.26%	3,022	76.90%	269	6.84%	-2,383	-60.64%	3,930
Lane	102,753	53.53%	67,141	34.98%	22,056	11.49%	35,612	18.55%	191,950
Lincoln	12,501	49.50%	10,039	39.75%	2,716	10.75%	2,462	9.75%	25,256
Linn	17,995	30.65%	33,488	57.03%	7,236	12.32%	-15,493	-26.38%	58,719
Malheur	2,246	21.52%	7,194	68.94%	995	9.54%	-4,948	-47.42%	10,435
Marion	57,788	42.23%	63,377	46.31%	15,675	11.46%	-5,589	-4.08%	136,840
Morrow	1,017	24.41%	2,721	65.30%	429	10.29%	-1,704	-40.89%	4,167
Multnomah	292,561	73.30%	67,954	17.03%	38,588	9.67%	224,607	56.27%	399,103
Polk	16,420	40.75%	18,940	47.00%	4,935	12.25%	-2,520	-6.25%	40,295
Sherman	202	19.86%	732	71.98%	83	8.16%	-530	-52.12%	1,017
Tillamook	5,768	41.79%	6,538	47.37%	1,497	10.84%	-770	-5.58%	13,803
Umatilla	7,673	27.80%	17,059	61.81%	2,865	10.39%	-9,386	-34.01%	27,597
Union	3,249	25.05%	8,431	65.01%	1,288	9.94%	-5,182	-39.96%	12,968
Wallowa	1,116	25.56%	2,848	65.23%	402	9.21%	-1,732	-39.67%	4,366
Wasco	4,781	39.96%	5,833	48.75%	1,350	11.29%	-1,052	-8.79%	11,964
Washington	153,251	56.92%	83,197	30.90%	32,784	12.18%	70,054	26.02%	269,232
Wheeler	155	18.95%	591	72.25%	72	8.80%	-436	-53.30%	818
Yamhill	19,301	39.59%	23,250	47.69%	6,202	12.72%	-3,949	-8.10%	48,753
Total	1,002,106	50.07%	782,403	39.09%	216,827	10.84%	219,703	10.98%	2,001,336

 Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

 County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
• Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)

By congressional district

Clinton won 4 of 5 congressional districts.^[22]

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
1st	33%	55%	Suzanne Bonamici
2nd	55%	35%	Greg Walden
3rd	22%	68%	Earl Blumenauer
4th	46%	46.1%	Peter DeFazio
5th	42%	46%	Kurt Schrader

See also

• United States presidential elections in Oregon
• Presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

References

1. Oregon State Elections Division (2016). "[PARTICIPATION] STATISTICAL SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 8, 2016, GENERAL ELECTION". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
2. Betsy Hammond (December 12, 2016). "Oregon voters shattered previous participation rates in November 2016". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 24, 2020.
4. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
5. "Oregon Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
6. "Oregon Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
7. "Stein wins six Oregon delegates, Moyowasifza-Curry one – Green Party Watch". Retrieved June 18, 2016.
8. . The Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on 27 March 2016. Retrieved 19 March 2016.
9. "Oregon Libertarian Primary Raw Results". Independent Political Report. June 8, 2016. Retrieved June 8, 2016.
10. "Independent Party of Oregon". Retrieved July 23, 2016.
11. (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 4, 2016. Retrieved July 31, 2016.
12. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
13. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
14. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
15. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
16. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
17. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
18. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
19. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
20. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Oregon: Trump vs. Clinton".
21. "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 9, 2016.
22. David Nir. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008". The Daily Kos. Retrieved September 30, 2020.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions