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2016 United States presidential election in Iowa

The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against the Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

2016 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout72.77%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 800,983 653,669
Percentage 51.15% 41.74%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Trump won the state with 51.15% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.74% (a margin of 9.41%). Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1980. Trump, besides being the first Republican to carry the state since George W. Bush in 2004, won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican in Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972; and also won Dubuque County, which had last voted Republican in 1956.[2] Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win an outright majority of the state's vote since Reagan's historic 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment.[3][4]

Caucuses edit

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in 2008, running with U.S. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[5][6] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[7] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[8][9] Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[10]

President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[11]

Democratic caucuses edit

Procedure edit

There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.

 
Results of the Democratic caucuses by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie
e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Iowa
– Summary of results –
Candidate State delegate equivalents Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
  Hillary Clinton 700.47 49.84% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 696.92 49.59% 21 0 21
Martin O'Malley 7.63 0.54% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0.46 0.03% 0 1 1
Total 1,405.48 100% 44 7 51
Source: The Green Papers, Iowa Democrats

County Conventions edit

In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.

Republican caucuses edit

 
Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
  Tie between Cruz and Trump
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 51,666 27.64% 8 0 8
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3% 7 0 7
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.12% 7 0 7
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3% 3 0 3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.54% 1 0 1
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8% 1 0 1
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.86% 1 0 1
John Kasich 3,474 1.86% 1 0 1
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.79% 1 0 1
Chris Christie 3,284 1.76% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum 1,783 0.95% 0 0 0
Other 117 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 186,932 100.00% 30 0 30
Source: "Iowa". cnn.com. Retrieved November 23, 2016.

General election edit

Polling edit

Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 till election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night.[12] The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.[13]

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
CNN[14] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[15] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[16] Likely R (flip) November 8, 2016
NBC[17] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[18] Tossup November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[19] Tilt R (flip) November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016

Results edit

Chart of popular vote

  Trump (51.15%)
  Clinton (41.74%)
  Johnson (3.78%)
  Write-ins (1.13%)
  McMullin (0.79%)
  Stein (0.73%)
  Others (0.67%)
2016 United States presidential election in Iowa
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 800,983 51.15% 6
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 653,669 41.74% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 59,186 3.78% 0
Write-in Various Various 17,746 1.13% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 12,366 0.79% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 11,479 0.73% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 5,335 0.34% 0
New Independent Lynn Kahn Jay Stolba 2,247 0.14% 0
Legal Marijuana Now Dan Vacek Mark Elworth 2,246 0.14% 0
Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 451 0.03% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Dennis J. Banks 323 0.02% 0
Totals 1,566,031 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 72.0%
Source:

By county edit

County Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 2,461 64.58% 1,133 29.73% 217 5.69% 1,328 34.85% 3,811
Adams 1,395 66.24% 565 26.83% 146 6.93% 830 39.41% 2,106
Allamakee 4,093 59.12% 2,421 34.97% 409 5.91% 1,672 24.15% 6,923
Appanoose 4,033 65.73% 1,814 29.56% 289 4.71% 2,219 36.17% 6,136
Audubon 2,136 62.60% 1,080 31.65% 196 5.75% 1,056 30.95% 3,412
Benton 8,232 59.46% 4,678 33.79% 934 6.75% 3,554 25.67% 13,844
Black Hawk 27,476 42.66% 32,233 50.05% 4,696 7.29% -4,757 -7.39% 64,405
Boone 7,484 52.72% 5,541 39.03% 1,171 8.25% 1,943 13.69% 14,196
Bremer 7,208 53.24% 5,356 39.56% 974 7.20% 1,852 13.68% 13,538
Buchanan 5,510 53.75% 3,970 38.72% 772 7.53% 1,540 15.03% 10,252
Buena Vista 4,903 59.23% 2,856 34.50% 519 6.27% 2,047 24.73% 8,278
Butler 4,921 65.50% 2,157 28.71% 435 5.79% 2,764 36.79% 7,513
Calhoun 3,468 67.22% 1,398 27.10% 293 5.68% 2,070 40.12% 5,159
Carroll 6,638 62.96% 3,309 31.38% 597 5.66% 3,329 31.58% 10,544
Cass 4,761 66.82% 1,951 27.38% 413 5.80% 2,810 39.44% 7,125
Cedar 5,295 55.50% 3,599 37.72% 647 6.78% 1,696 17.78% 9,541
Cerro Gordo 11,621 50.60% 9,862 42.94% 1,482 6.46% 1,759 7.66% 22,965
Cherokee 4,192 66.99% 1,679 26.83% 387 6.18% 2,513 40.16% 6,258
Chickasaw 3,742 58.15% 2,266 35.21% 427 6.64% 1,476 22.94% 6,435
Clarke 2,713 60.91% 1,465 32.89% 276 6.20% 1,248 28.02% 4,454
Clay 5,877 68.20% 2,249 26.10% 491 5.70% 3,628 42.10% 8,617
Clayton 5,317 58.24% 3,237 35.46% 575 6.30% 2,080 22.78% 9,129
Clinton 11,276 48.88% 10,095 43.76% 1,696 7.36% 1,181 5.12% 23,067
Crawford 4,617 66.58% 1,991 28.71% 327 4.71% 2,626 37.87% 6,935
Dallas 19,339 50.56% 15,701 41.05% 3,212 8.39% 3,638 9.51% 38,252
Davis 2,723 70.14% 977 25.17% 182 4.69% 1,746 44.97% 3,882
Decatur 2,296 61.49% 1,201 32.16% 237 6.35% 1,095 29.33% 3,734
Delaware 5,694 61.62% 2,957 32.00% 590 6.38% 2,737 29.62% 9,241
Des Moines 9,529 49.88% 8,212 42.99% 1,362 7.13% 1,317 6.89% 19,103
Dickinson 6,753 65.22% 3,056 29.52% 545 5.26% 3,697 35.70% 10,354
Dubuque 23,460 47.18% 22,850 45.96% 3,411 6.86% 610 1.22% 49,721
Emmet 3,124 65.73% 1,357 28.55% 272 5.72% 1,767 37.18% 4,753
Fayette 5,620 56.34% 3,689 36.98% 666 6.68% 1,931 19.36% 9,975
Floyd 4,375 54.28% 3,179 39.44% 506 6.28% 1,196 14.84% 8,060
Franklin 3,163 63.67% 1,493 30.05% 312 6.28% 1,670 33.62% 4,968
Fremont 2,407 66.95% 963 26.79% 225 6.26% 1,444 40.16% 3,595
Greene 2,820 58.49% 1,691 35.08% 310 6.43% 1,129 23.41% 4,821
Grundy 4,527 65.88% 1,856 27.01% 489 7.11% 2,671 38.87% 6,872
Guthrie 3,628 63.10% 1,732 30.12% 390 6.78% 1,896 32.98% 5,750
Hamilton 4,463 58.01% 2,726 35.43% 505 6.56% 1,737 22.58% 7,694
Hancock 3,977 67.74% 1,587 27.03% 307 5.23% 2,390 40.71% 5,871
Hardin 5,254 61.57% 2,787 32.66% 492 5.77% 2,467 28.91% 8,533
Harrison 4,902 65.67% 2,131 28.55% 432 5.78% 2,771 37.12% 7,465
Henry 5,779 61.45% 2,904 30.88% 721 7.67% 2,875 30.57% 9,404
Howard 2,611 57.27% 1,677 36.78% 271 5.95% 934 20.49% 4,559
Humboldt 3,568 70.14% 1,252 24.61% 267 5.25% 2,316 45.53% 5,087
Ida 2,655 73.50% 792 21.93% 165 4.57% 1,863 51.57% 3,612
Iowa 5,205 58.46% 3,084 34.64% 615 6.90% 2,121 23.82% 8,904
Jackson 5,824 56.49% 3,837 37.22% 649 6.29% 1,987 19.27% 10,310
Jasper 10,560 55.48% 7,109 37.35% 1,365 7.17% 3,451 18.13% 19,034
Jefferson 3,748 45.95% 3,710 45.49% 698 8.56% 38 0.46% 8,156
Johnson 21,044 27.35% 50,200 65.25% 5,696 7.40% -29,156 -37.90% 76,940
Jones 5,720 56.45% 3,787 37.37% 626 6.18% 1,933 19.08% 10,133
Keokuk 3,390 68.00% 1,342 26.92% 253 5.08% 2,048 41.08% 4,985
Kossuth 5,653 65.68% 2,543 29.55% 411 4.77% 3,110 36.13% 8,607
Lee 8,803 54.50% 6,215 38.48% 1,133 7.02% 2,588 16.02% 16,151
Linn 48,390 41.32% 58,935 50.33% 9,773 8.35% -10,545 -9.01% 117,098
Louisa 3,069 61.28% 1,648 32.91% 291 5.81% 1,421 28.37% 5,008
Lucas 2,877 66.08% 1,239 28.46% 238 5.46% 1,638 37.62% 4,354
Lyon 5,192 81.42% 920 14.43% 265 4.15% 4,272 66.99% 6,377
Madison 5,360 62.07% 2,678 31.01% 598 6.92% 2,682 31.06% 8,636
Mahaska 7,432 69.90% 2,619 24.63% 581 5.47% 4,813 45.27% 10,632
Marion 10,962 61.53% 5,482 30.77% 1,372 7.70% 5,480 30.76% 17,816
Marshall 9,146 50.87% 7,652 42.56% 1,182 6.57% 1,494 8.31% 17,980
Mills 5,067 65.82% 2,090 27.15% 541 7.03% 2,977 38.67% 7,698
Mitchell 3,190 58.89% 1,888 34.85% 339 6.26% 1,302 24.04% 5,417
Monona 3,120 68.24% 1,247 27.27% 205 4.49% 1,873 40.97% 4,572
Monroe 2,638 68.25% 1,056 27.32% 171 4.43% 1,582 40.93% 3,865
Montgomery 3,436 68.12% 1,314 26.05% 294 5.83% 2,122 42.07% 5,044
Muscatine 9,584 49.32% 8,368 43.06% 1,482 7.62% 1,216 6.26% 19,434
O'Brien 5,752 77.67% 1,315 17.76% 339 4.57% 4,437 59.91% 7,406
Osceola 2,531 78.77% 552 17.18% 130 4.05% 1,979 61.59% 3,213
Page 4,893 69.46% 1,807 25.65% 344 4.89% 3,086 43.81% 7,044
Palo Alto 3,081 65.51% 1,398 29.73% 224 4.76% 1,683 35.78% 4,703
Plymouth 9,680 73.39% 2,885 21.87% 625 4.74% 6,795 51.52% 13,190
Pocahontas 2,702 69.91% 963 24.92% 200 5.17% 1,739 44.99% 3,865
Polk 93,492 40.38% 119,804 51.74% 18,259 7.88% -26,312 -11.36% 231,555
Pottawattamie 24,447 57.28% 15,355 35.98% 2,878 6.74% 9,092 21.30% 42,680
Poweshiek 4,946 50.30% 4,304 43.77% 583 5.93% 642 6.53% 9,833
Ringgold 1,824 67.38% 753 27.82% 130 4.80% 1,071 39.56% 2,707
Sac 3,703 71.05% 1,270 24.37% 239 4.58% 2,433 46.68% 5,212
Scott 39,149 45.41% 40,440 46.90% 6,631 7.69% -1,291 -1.49% 86,220
Shelby 4,362 68.48% 1,662 26.09% 346 5.43% 2,700 42.39% 6,370
Sioux 14,785 81.26% 2,300 12.64% 1,109 6.10% 12,485 68.62% 18,194
Story 19,458 38.40% 25,709 50.74% 5,500 10.86% -6,251 -12.34% 50,667
Tama 4,971 56.80% 3,196 36.52% 585 6.68% 1,775 20.28% 8,752
Taylor 2,111 69.69% 758 25.02% 160 5.29% 1,353 44.67% 3,029
Union 3,525 60.44% 1,922 32.96% 385 6.60% 1,603 27.48% 5,832
Van Buren 2,527 70.96% 845 23.73% 189 5.31% 1,682 47.23% 3,561
Wapello 8,715 57.53% 5,594 36.93% 840 5.54% 3,121 20.60% 15,149
Warren 14,814 54.26% 10,411 38.14% 2,075 7.60% 4,403 16.12% 27,300
Washington 6,173 56.48% 3,943 36.08% 813 7.44% 2,230 20.40% 10,929
Wayne 2,069 70.37% 719 24.46% 152 5.17% 1,350 45.91% 2,940
Webster 10,056 57.69% 6,305 36.17% 1,069 6.14% 3,751 21.52% 17,430
Winnebago 3,447 59.56% 1,931 33.37% 409 7.07% 1,516 26.19% 5,787
Winneshiek 5,344 47.03% 5,254 46.24% 764 6.73% 90 0.79% 11,362
Woodbury 24,727 56.56% 16,210 37.08% 2,781 6.36% 8,517 19.48% 43,718
Worth 2,453 57.62% 1,530 35.94% 274 6.44% 923 21.68% 4,257
Wright 3,800 63.06% 1,896 31.46% 330 5.48% 1,904 31.60% 6,026
Totals 800,983 51.15% 653,669 41.74% 111,379 7.11% 147,314 9.41% 1,566,031
 
 
 

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

[21]

By congressional district edit

Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[22]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 48% 45% Rod Blum
2nd 49% 44% Dave Loebsack
3rd 48% 45% David Young
4th 60% 33% Steve King

Analysis edit

The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012. This was also the first time since 1976 that Iowa voted to the right of Texas, which Trump won in this election by 8.99 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1980, and he flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most out of any state. [21] This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote. It was also the first time since 2004 (and only the second since 1984) that Iowa would vote for a Republican candidate. This is also the first election since 1980 in which a non-incumbent Republican won the state.

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  2. ^ "Iowa Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  3. ^ "Donald Trump wins Iowa on a wave of popular discontent". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 16, 2017.
  4. ^ Bash, Dana; Crutchfield, Abigail (November 2, 2016). "Can Trump turn Iowa red?". CNN. Retrieved January 16, 2017.
  5. ^ . Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  6. ^ "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  7. ^ "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. ^ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  9. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (June 15, 2016). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". The Hill. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  10. ^ Cohn, Nate (January 19, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  11. ^ "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  12. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton".
  13. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton".
  14. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  15. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  16. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  17. ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  18. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  19. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  20. ^ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  21. ^ a b Bentley, Chris (October 22, 2019). "Dozens Of Iowa Counties Flipped Red For Trump in 2016. Will They Stand By Him In 2020?". WBUR. from the original on October 22, 2019. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  22. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".

External links edit

  • RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  • Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

2016, united, states, presidential, election, iowa, main, article, 2016, united, states, presidential, election, held, tuesday, november, 2016, part, 2016, united, states, presidential, election, which, states, plus, district, columbia, participated, iowa, vot. Main article 2016 United States presidential election The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday November 8 2016 as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party s nominee businessman Donald Trump and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against the Democratic Party nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College 1 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa 2012 November 8 2016 2020 Turnout72 77 Nominee Donald Trump Hillary ClintonParty Republican DemocraticHome state New York New YorkRunning mate Mike Pence Tim KaineElectoral vote 6 0Popular vote 800 983 653 669Percentage 51 15 41 74 County resultsCongressional district resultsPrecinct resultsTrump 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 100 Clinton 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 Tie President before electionBarack ObamaDemocratic Elected President Donald TrumpRepublicanTreemap of the popular vote by countyTrump won the state with 51 15 of the vote while Clinton received 41 74 a margin of 9 41 Clinton s performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1980 Trump besides being the first Republican to carry the state since George W Bush in 2004 won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket won two counties that had last voted Republican in Richard Nixon s landslide victory in 1972 and also won Dubuque County which had last voted Republican in 1956 2 Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980 and he was the first Republican to win an outright majority of the state s vote since Reagan s historic 1984 landslide Trump enjoyed the support of working class whites in the agricultural industry as well as the endorsement of Iowa s GOP establishment 3 4 Contents 1 Caucuses 1 1 Democratic caucuses 1 1 1 Procedure 1 1 2 County Conventions 1 2 Republican caucuses 2 General election 2 1 Polling 2 2 Predictions 3 Results 3 1 By county 3 1 1 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican 3 2 By congressional district 4 Analysis 5 See also 6 References 7 External linksCaucuses editFurther information United States presidential election The incumbent President of the United States Barack Obama a Democrat and former U S Senator from Illinois was first elected to the presidency in 2008 running with U S Senator Joe Biden of Delaware Defeating the Republican nominee Senator John McCain of Arizona with 52 9 of the popular vote and 68 of the electoral vote 5 6 Obama succeeded two term Republican President George W Bush the former Governor of Texas Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51 1 of the popular vote and 61 7 of electoral votes 7 Although Barack Obama s approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year 8 9 Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate and vice versa 10 President Obama was not eligible to be re elected after having served two terms Obama s running mate and two term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either 11 Democratic caucuses edit Main article 2016 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses Procedure edit Further information Walking subcaucus There is no ballot instead a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton Martin O Malley and Bernie Sanders The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates nbsp Results of the Democratic caucuses by county Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Tiee d 2016 Democratic Party s presidential nominating process in Iowa Summary of results Candidate State delegate equivalents Estimated delegatesCount Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total nbsp Hillary Clinton 700 47 49 84 23 6 29Bernie Sanders 696 92 49 59 21 0 21Martin O Malley 7 63 0 54 0 0 0Uncommitted 0 46 0 03 0 1 1Total 1 405 48 100 44 7 51Source The Green Papers Iowa DemocratsCounty Conventions edit In early March the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions Republican caucuses edit Main article 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses This section should include a summary of 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses See Wikipedia Summary style for information on how to incorporate it into this article s main text July 2016 nbsp Election results by county Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Tie between Cruz and TrumpIowa Republican precinct caucuses February 1 2016 Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate countBound Unbound TotalTed Cruz 51 666 27 64 8 0 8Donald Trump 45 427 24 3 7 0 7Marco Rubio 43 165 23 12 7 0 7Ben Carson 17 395 9 3 3 0 3Rand Paul 8 481 4 54 1 0 1Jeb Bush 5 238 2 8 1 0 1Carly Fiorina 3 485 1 86 1 0 1John Kasich 3 474 1 86 1 0 1Mike Huckabee 3 345 1 79 1 0 1Chris Christie 3 284 1 76 0 0 0Rick Santorum 1 783 0 95 0 0 0Other 117 0 06 0 0 0Jim Gilmore 12 0 01 0 0 0Unprojected delegates 0 0 0Total 186 932 100 00 30 0 30Source Iowa cnn com Retrieved November 23 2016 General election editPolling edit See also Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election Iowa Up until late August 2016 the election was close with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead In September 2016 Trump gained momentum by winning a poll 44 to 39 in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5 From late September 2016 till election day Trump won every poll but one The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44 to 41 with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night 12 The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46 to 39 13 Predictions edit Source Ranking As ofCNN 14 Lean R flip November 4 2016Cook Political Report 15 Lean R flip November 7 2016Electoral vote com 16 Likely R flip November 8 2016NBC 17 Lean R flip November 7 2016RealClearPolitics 18 Tossup November 7 2016Rothenberg Political Report 19 Tilt R flip November 7 2016Sabato s Crystal Ball 20 Lean R flip November 7 2016Results editChart of popular vote Trump 51 15 Clinton 41 74 Johnson 3 78 Write ins 1 13 McMullin 0 79 Stein 0 73 Others 0 67 2016 United States presidential election in IowaParty Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votesRepublican Donald Trump Mike Pence 800 983 51 15 6Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 653 669 41 74 0Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 59 186 3 78 0Write in Various Various 17 746 1 13 0Independent Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 12 366 0 79 0Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 11 479 0 73 0Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 5 335 0 34 0New Independent Lynn Kahn Jay Stolba 2 247 0 14 0Legal Marijuana Now Dan Vacek Mark Elworth 2 246 0 14 0Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 451 0 03 0Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Dennis J Banks 323 0 02 0Totals 1 566 031 100 00 6Voter turnout Voting age population 72 0 Source Iowa Secretary of StateBy county edit County Donald TrumpRepublican Hillary ClintonDemocratic Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total Adair 2 461 64 58 1 133 29 73 217 5 69 1 328 34 85 3 811Adams 1 395 66 24 565 26 83 146 6 93 830 39 41 2 106Allamakee 4 093 59 12 2 421 34 97 409 5 91 1 672 24 15 6 923Appanoose 4 033 65 73 1 814 29 56 289 4 71 2 219 36 17 6 136Audubon 2 136 62 60 1 080 31 65 196 5 75 1 056 30 95 3 412Benton 8 232 59 46 4 678 33 79 934 6 75 3 554 25 67 13 844Black Hawk 27 476 42 66 32 233 50 05 4 696 7 29 4 757 7 39 64 405Boone 7 484 52 72 5 541 39 03 1 171 8 25 1 943 13 69 14 196Bremer 7 208 53 24 5 356 39 56 974 7 20 1 852 13 68 13 538Buchanan 5 510 53 75 3 970 38 72 772 7 53 1 540 15 03 10 252Buena Vista 4 903 59 23 2 856 34 50 519 6 27 2 047 24 73 8 278Butler 4 921 65 50 2 157 28 71 435 5 79 2 764 36 79 7 513Calhoun 3 468 67 22 1 398 27 10 293 5 68 2 070 40 12 5 159Carroll 6 638 62 96 3 309 31 38 597 5 66 3 329 31 58 10 544Cass 4 761 66 82 1 951 27 38 413 5 80 2 810 39 44 7 125Cedar 5 295 55 50 3 599 37 72 647 6 78 1 696 17 78 9 541Cerro Gordo 11 621 50 60 9 862 42 94 1 482 6 46 1 759 7 66 22 965Cherokee 4 192 66 99 1 679 26 83 387 6 18 2 513 40 16 6 258Chickasaw 3 742 58 15 2 266 35 21 427 6 64 1 476 22 94 6 435Clarke 2 713 60 91 1 465 32 89 276 6 20 1 248 28 02 4 454Clay 5 877 68 20 2 249 26 10 491 5 70 3 628 42 10 8 617Clayton 5 317 58 24 3 237 35 46 575 6 30 2 080 22 78 9 129Clinton 11 276 48 88 10 095 43 76 1 696 7 36 1 181 5 12 23 067Crawford 4 617 66 58 1 991 28 71 327 4 71 2 626 37 87 6 935Dallas 19 339 50 56 15 701 41 05 3 212 8 39 3 638 9 51 38 252Davis 2 723 70 14 977 25 17 182 4 69 1 746 44 97 3 882Decatur 2 296 61 49 1 201 32 16 237 6 35 1 095 29 33 3 734Delaware 5 694 61 62 2 957 32 00 590 6 38 2 737 29 62 9 241Des Moines 9 529 49 88 8 212 42 99 1 362 7 13 1 317 6 89 19 103Dickinson 6 753 65 22 3 056 29 52 545 5 26 3 697 35 70 10 354Dubuque 23 460 47 18 22 850 45 96 3 411 6 86 610 1 22 49 721Emmet 3 124 65 73 1 357 28 55 272 5 72 1 767 37 18 4 753Fayette 5 620 56 34 3 689 36 98 666 6 68 1 931 19 36 9 975Floyd 4 375 54 28 3 179 39 44 506 6 28 1 196 14 84 8 060Franklin 3 163 63 67 1 493 30 05 312 6 28 1 670 33 62 4 968Fremont 2 407 66 95 963 26 79 225 6 26 1 444 40 16 3 595Greene 2 820 58 49 1 691 35 08 310 6 43 1 129 23 41 4 821Grundy 4 527 65 88 1 856 27 01 489 7 11 2 671 38 87 6 872Guthrie 3 628 63 10 1 732 30 12 390 6 78 1 896 32 98 5 750Hamilton 4 463 58 01 2 726 35 43 505 6 56 1 737 22 58 7 694Hancock 3 977 67 74 1 587 27 03 307 5 23 2 390 40 71 5 871Hardin 5 254 61 57 2 787 32 66 492 5 77 2 467 28 91 8 533Harrison 4 902 65 67 2 131 28 55 432 5 78 2 771 37 12 7 465Henry 5 779 61 45 2 904 30 88 721 7 67 2 875 30 57 9 404Howard 2 611 57 27 1 677 36 78 271 5 95 934 20 49 4 559Humboldt 3 568 70 14 1 252 24 61 267 5 25 2 316 45 53 5 087Ida 2 655 73 50 792 21 93 165 4 57 1 863 51 57 3 612Iowa 5 205 58 46 3 084 34 64 615 6 90 2 121 23 82 8 904Jackson 5 824 56 49 3 837 37 22 649 6 29 1 987 19 27 10 310Jasper 10 560 55 48 7 109 37 35 1 365 7 17 3 451 18 13 19 034Jefferson 3 748 45 95 3 710 45 49 698 8 56 38 0 46 8 156Johnson 21 044 27 35 50 200 65 25 5 696 7 40 29 156 37 90 76 940Jones 5 720 56 45 3 787 37 37 626 6 18 1 933 19 08 10 133Keokuk 3 390 68 00 1 342 26 92 253 5 08 2 048 41 08 4 985Kossuth 5 653 65 68 2 543 29 55 411 4 77 3 110 36 13 8 607Lee 8 803 54 50 6 215 38 48 1 133 7 02 2 588 16 02 16 151Linn 48 390 41 32 58 935 50 33 9 773 8 35 10 545 9 01 117 098Louisa 3 069 61 28 1 648 32 91 291 5 81 1 421 28 37 5 008Lucas 2 877 66 08 1 239 28 46 238 5 46 1 638 37 62 4 354Lyon 5 192 81 42 920 14 43 265 4 15 4 272 66 99 6 377Madison 5 360 62 07 2 678 31 01 598 6 92 2 682 31 06 8 636Mahaska 7 432 69 90 2 619 24 63 581 5 47 4 813 45 27 10 632Marion 10 962 61 53 5 482 30 77 1 372 7 70 5 480 30 76 17 816Marshall 9 146 50 87 7 652 42 56 1 182 6 57 1 494 8 31 17 980Mills 5 067 65 82 2 090 27 15 541 7 03 2 977 38 67 7 698Mitchell 3 190 58 89 1 888 34 85 339 6 26 1 302 24 04 5 417Monona 3 120 68 24 1 247 27 27 205 4 49 1 873 40 97 4 572Monroe 2 638 68 25 1 056 27 32 171 4 43 1 582 40 93 3 865Montgomery 3 436 68 12 1 314 26 05 294 5 83 2 122 42 07 5 044Muscatine 9 584 49 32 8 368 43 06 1 482 7 62 1 216 6 26 19 434O Brien 5 752 77 67 1 315 17 76 339 4 57 4 437 59 91 7 406Osceola 2 531 78 77 552 17 18 130 4 05 1 979 61 59 3 213Page 4 893 69 46 1 807 25 65 344 4 89 3 086 43 81 7 044Palo Alto 3 081 65 51 1 398 29 73 224 4 76 1 683 35 78 4 703Plymouth 9 680 73 39 2 885 21 87 625 4 74 6 795 51 52 13 190Pocahontas 2 702 69 91 963 24 92 200 5 17 1 739 44 99 3 865Polk 93 492 40 38 119 804 51 74 18 259 7 88 26 312 11 36 231 555Pottawattamie 24 447 57 28 15 355 35 98 2 878 6 74 9 092 21 30 42 680Poweshiek 4 946 50 30 4 304 43 77 583 5 93 642 6 53 9 833Ringgold 1 824 67 38 753 27 82 130 4 80 1 071 39 56 2 707Sac 3 703 71 05 1 270 24 37 239 4 58 2 433 46 68 5 212Scott 39 149 45 41 40 440 46 90 6 631 7 69 1 291 1 49 86 220Shelby 4 362 68 48 1 662 26 09 346 5 43 2 700 42 39 6 370Sioux 14 785 81 26 2 300 12 64 1 109 6 10 12 485 68 62 18 194Story 19 458 38 40 25 709 50 74 5 500 10 86 6 251 12 34 50 667Tama 4 971 56 80 3 196 36 52 585 6 68 1 775 20 28 8 752Taylor 2 111 69 69 758 25 02 160 5 29 1 353 44 67 3 029Union 3 525 60 44 1 922 32 96 385 6 60 1 603 27 48 5 832Van Buren 2 527 70 96 845 23 73 189 5 31 1 682 47 23 3 561Wapello 8 715 57 53 5 594 36 93 840 5 54 3 121 20 60 15 149Warren 14 814 54 26 10 411 38 14 2 075 7 60 4 403 16 12 27 300Washington 6 173 56 48 3 943 36 08 813 7 44 2 230 20 40 10 929Wayne 2 069 70 37 719 24 46 152 5 17 1 350 45 91 2 940Webster 10 056 57 69 6 305 36 17 1 069 6 14 3 751 21 52 17 430Winnebago 3 447 59 56 1 931 33 37 409 7 07 1 516 26 19 5 787Winneshiek 5 344 47 03 5 254 46 24 764 6 73 90 0 79 11 362Woodbury 24 727 56 56 16 210 37 08 2 781 6 36 8 517 19 48 43 718Worth 2 453 57 62 1 530 35 94 274 6 44 923 21 68 4 257Wright 3 800 63 06 1 896 31 46 330 5 48 1 904 31 60 6 026Totals 800 983 51 15 653 669 41 74 111 379 7 11 147 314 9 41 1 566 031 nbsp Swing by countyLegend Democratic gt 15 Democratic 12 5 15 Democratic 10 12 5 Democratic 5 7 5 Democratic 2 5 5 Democratic 0 2 5 Republican 0 2 5 Republican 2 5 5 Republican 5 7 5 Republican 7 5 10 Republican 10 12 5 Republican 12 5 15 Republican gt 15 nbsp Trend relative to the state by countyLegend Democratic gt 15 Democratic 12 5 15 Democratic 10 12 5 Democratic 5 7 5 Democratic 2 5 5 Democratic 0 2 5 Republican 0 2 5 Republican 2 5 5 Republican 5 7 5 Republican 7 5 10 Republican 10 12 5 Republican 12 5 15 Republican gt 15 nbsp County flipsLegend Democratic Hold Republican Hold Gain from Democratic Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit 21 Allamakee largest city Waukon Boone largest city Boone Bremer largest city Waverly Buchanan largest city Independence Cedar largest city Tipton Cerro Gordo largest city Mason City Chickasaw largest city New Hampton Clarke largest city Osceola Clayton largest city Guttenberg Clinton largest city Clinton Des Moines largest city Burlington Dubuque largest city Dubuque Fayette largest city Oelwein Floyd largest city Charles City Howard largest city Cresco Jackson largest city Maquoketa Jasper largest city Newton Jefferson largest city Fairfield Jones largest city Anamosa Lee largest city Fort Madison Louisa largest city Wapello Marshall largest city Marshalltown Mitchell largest city Osage Muscatine largest city Muscatine Poweshiek largest city Grinnell Tama largest city Tama Union largest city Creston Wapello largest city Ottumwa Webster largest city Fort Dodge Winneshiek largest city Decorah Woodbury largest city Sioux City Worth largest city Northwood By congressional district edit Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts including one held by a Democrat 22 District Trump Clinton Representative1st 48 45 Rod Blum2nd 49 44 Dave Loebsack3rd 48 45 David Young4th 60 33 Steve KingAnalysis editThe difference of 9 4 points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012 This was also the first time since 1976 that Iowa voted to the right of Texas which Trump won in this election by 8 99 points Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties the most for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1980 and he flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012 the most out of any state 21 This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote It was also the first time since 2004 and only the second since 1984 that Iowa would vote for a Republican candidate This is also the first election since 1980 in which a non incumbent Republican won the state See also editUnited States presidential elections in Iowa 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries United States presidential electionReferences edit Distribution of Electoral Votes National Archives and Records Administration September 19 2019 Retrieved November 25 2020 Iowa Election Results 2016 The New York Times Retrieved November 10 2016 Donald Trump wins Iowa on a wave of popular discontent Des Moines Register Retrieved January 16 2017 Bash Dana Crutchfield Abigail November 2 2016 Can Trump turn Iowa red CNN Retrieved January 16 2017 United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8 2009 Clerk house gov Archived from the original on April 2 2012 Retrieved January 30 2009 Federal elections 2008 PDF Federal Election Commission Retrieved May 11 2015 President Map The New York Times November 29 2012 Retrieved May 11 2015 Election Other President Obama Job Approval RealClearPolitics Retrieved December 24 2015 Byrnes Jesse June 15 2016 Poll Obama approval rating highest since 2012 The Hill Retrieved June 19 2016 Cohn Nate January 19 2015 What a Rise in Obama s Approval Rating Means for 2016 The New York Times ISSN 0362 4331 Retrieved June 19 2016 Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race The Wall Street Journal Retrieved October 21 2015 RealClearPolitics Election 2016 Iowa Trump vs Clinton RealClearPolitics Election 2016 Iowa Trump vs Clinton Chalian David November 4 2016 Road to 270 CNN s new election map CNN Retrieved February 10 2019 2016 Electoral Scorecard The Cook Political Report November 7 2016 Retrieved February 10 2019 2016 Predicted Electoral Map Electoral vote com Retrieved February 10 2019 Todd Chuck November 7 2016 NBC s final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton NBC News Retrieved February 10 2019 2016 Election Maps Battle for White House RealClearPolitics Retrieved February 10 2019 Presidential Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report Retrieved August 16 2021 Sabato Larry November 7 2016 The Crystal Ball s 2016 Electoral College ratings University of Virginia Center for Politics Retrieved February 10 2019 a b Bentley Chris October 22 2019 Dozens Of Iowa Counties Flipped Red For Trump in 2016 Will They Stand By Him In 2020 WBUR Archived from the original on October 22 2019 Retrieved September 1 2020 Presidential Results by Congressional District 2000 2008 Swing State Project External links editRNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived November 8 2016 at the Wayback Machine Green papers for 2016 primaries caucuses and conventions Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa amp oldid 1201749857, wikipedia, wiki, 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