2016 United States presidential election in Maine
The 2016 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The last time it did so was in 1828.[2]
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| Turnout | 72.53% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Maine was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. It voted for the Democratic ticket only three times (1912, 1964, and 1968) from 1856 to 1988, but a Democrat has won the state's popular vote in every election since then. Although regarded as a safe blue state prior to the election, Maine shifted dramatically and unexpectedly towards the Republicans, with Clinton's 2.96% margin of victory the narrowest for a Democrat since 1988, when Republicans last won the state, and well down on Obama's 15.29% margin in 2012. As a measure of how Republican Maine once was at the presidential level, Trump is only the third Republican to win the White House without winning the popular vote in Maine after Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in both his 2000 and 2004 campaigns.
On election day, Clinton carried Maine's two at-large electoral votes with a plurality and won Maine's 1st congressional district, while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district, making him the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988[a] and also making him the first Republican to win an electoral vote from a New England state since George W. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000.
In addition to the historic electoral vote split in Maine, this marked the first time that such a split occurred after Maine began awarding electoral votes based on congressional districts in 1972. This was also the second time that a state split its Electoral College vote by congressional district since Nebraska in 2008.
Caucuses edit
Democratic caucuses edit
Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were on the ballot in Maine for the Democratic Presidential caucuses. Ahead of the caucuses, polling suggested that Sanders had a slight lead over Clinton.
| Maine Democratic caucuses, March 6, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | State convention delegates | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 2,226 | 64.17% | 17 | 1 | 18 |
| Hillary Clinton | 1,231 | 35.49% | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| Uncommitted | 12 | 0.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 3,469 | 100% | 25 | 5 | 30 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Sanders swept all of Maine's counties and also won a large share of the democratic caucus votes in New England.
Republican caucuses edit
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and John Kasich were all on the ballot for the 2016 Maine state Republican caucuses. The caucuses were held on March 5, 2016, in the following counties in Maine: Cumberland, Franklin, Piscataquis, Somerset, Aroostook, Androscoggin, Sagadahoc, Kennebec, Lincoln, Knox, Hancock, Waldo, Washington, York, Oxford, and Penobscot.
Ted Cruz won the caucus with 45.9% of the vote and was awarded 12 delegates, with Donald Trump in second, receiving 32.59% of the votes and 9 delegates.[3]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Ted Cruz | 8,550 | 45.90% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Donald Trump | 6,070 | 32.59% | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| John Kasich | 2,270 | 12.19% | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Marco Rubio | 1,492 | 8.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 132 | 0.71% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 31 | 0.17% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 17 | 0.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 10 | 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 18,627 | 100% | 23 | 0 | 23 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally.
Green caucuses edit
Maine held a series of caucuses throughout the state between February 27 and March 19. The Maine Green Independent Party didn't compile the results until the state convention on May 7, during which it then assigned delegates based on the results.[4][5]
On March 13, 2016, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the Maine Green Independent Party caucuses.[6]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | – | – | – |
| William Kreml | – | – | – |
| Kent Mesplay | – | – | – |
| Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry | – | – | – |
| Darryl Cherney | – | – | – |
| Uncommitted | – | – | – |
| Total | - | - | - |
Libertarian convention edit
The Libertarian Party nominated its ticket, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor William Weld for vice president, at its national convention in Orlando, Florida, on May 29, 2016.[7]
Until July 13, 2016, the Libertarian Party was not a legally recognized party in Maine. A 2013 change in the ballot access law permitted a party to gain recognition if they enroll 5,000 Maine voters in the party. The Libertarian Party of Maine turned approximately 6,500 signatures in to the Maine Secretary of State's office in 2015, but Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap invalidated 2,000 of them, bringing the total below the threshold required. The party then sued Dunlap, claiming Maine's ballot access requirements were unconstitutionally unreasonable. While losing an initial ruling by U.S. District Court Judge John Woodcock,[8] Woodcock later ordered that they be given until July 12 to collect the necessary signatures.[9] On July 13, Dunlap certified that 5,150 signatures had been validated, surpassing the threshold required to allow their candidates on the ballot. Maintenance of the status required obtaining 10,000 presidential votes in the general election.[10]
General election edit
Maine distributes 2 EVs based on the statewide vote and 1 EV for each congressional district's vote.
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[11] | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[12] | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[13] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[14] | Likely D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[15] | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[17] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[18] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
Polling edit
Statewide, Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll but one with margins ranging from 3 to 11 points. The average of the last two polls showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump 46.5% to 41% statewide.[19]
Statewide Polls edit
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Hillary Clinton (D) | Donald Trump (R) | Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center[20] | November 2–3, 2016 | 450 | 4.7% | 49% | 35% | 11% | 5% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[21] | October 24–26, 2016 | 429 | 4.7% | 45% | 33% | 13% | 9% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[22] | October 14–15, 2016 | 469 | 4.5% | 46% | 36% | 12% | 7% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[23] | October 7–9, 2016 | 468 | 4.5% | 49% | 32% | 11% | 8% |
| University of New Hampshire[24] | September 15–20, 2016 | 50% | 28% | 14% | — | ||
| Maine People's Resource Center[25] | September 15–17, 2016 | 440 | 4.7% | 41% | 30% | 17% | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire[26] | June 15–21, 2016 | 48% | 33% | 16% | 3% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Hillary Clinton (D) | Donald Trump (R) | Gary Johnson (L) | Jill Stein (G) | Lead margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center[20] | November 2–3, 2016 | 49% | 35% | 7% | 4% | 6 | 450 | ± 3.4% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[21] | October 24–26, 2016 | 45% | 33% | 9% | 4% | 12 | 429 | ± 4.7% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[22] | October 14–15, 2016 | 45.5% | 35.5% | 7.9% | 4% | 10 | 469 | ± 4.5% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[23] | October 7–9, 2016 | 48.7% | 32.3% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 16.4 | 468 | ± 4.5% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[25] | September 15–17, 2016 | 41% | 30% | 12% | 5% | 11 | 440 | ± 4.7% |
| Colby College/Boston Globe[27] | September 4–10, 2016 | 49% | 31% | 9% | 5% | 18 | 382 | ± 5.3% |
| Emerson College[28] | September 2–5, 2016 | 52% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 22 | 404 |
1st congressional district edit
Hillary Clinton won every poll in the 1st Congressional District. The average of the last three polls had her leading 49% to 36%.[29]
2nd congressional district edit
Donald Trump won most of the polls conducted in Maine's 2nd district. He was ahead anywhere from 3 to 11 points, although Hillary Clinton won the last poll 44% to 42%. An average of the last two polls showed Trump leading Hillary Clinton 41.5% to 41%.[30]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Hillary Clinton (D) | Donald Trump (R) | Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center[20] | November 2–3, 2016 | 405 | 4.9% | 41% | 43% | 10% | 6% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[21] | October 24–26, 2016 | 382 | 5% | 38% | 41% | 11% | 9% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[22] | October 14–15, 2016 | 420 | 4.8% | 38% | 37% | 14% | 11% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[23] | October 7–9, 2016 | 424 | 4.8% | 39% | 40% | 13% | 8% |
| University of New Hampshire[24] | September 15–20, 2016 | 34% | 48% | 16% | — | ||
| Maine People's Resource Center[25] | September 15–17, 2016 | 396 | 4.9% | 33% | 44% | 14% | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[26] | June 15–21, 2016 | 36% | 37% | 23% | 4% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Hillary Clinton (D) | Donald Trump (R) | Gary Johnson (L) | Jill Stein (G) | Lead margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center[20] | November 2–3, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 8% | 3% | 2 | 405 | ± 4.9% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[21] | October 24–26, 2016 | 38% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 3 | 382 | ± 5% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[22] | October 14–15, 2016 | 38% | 37% | 11% | 4% | 1 | 420 | ± 4.8% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[23] | October 7–9, 2016 | 39% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 1 | 424 | ± 4.8% |
| Maine People's Resource Center[25] | September 15–17, 2016 | 33% | 44% | 10% | 4% | 11 | 396 | ± 4.9% |
| Colby College/Boston Globe[27] | September 4–10, 2016 | 37% | 47% | 8% | 5% | 10 | 397 | ± 5.0% |
| Emerson College[28] | September 2–5, 2016 | 36% | 41% | 14% | 1% | 5 | 399 |
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | 357,735 | 47.83% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | 335,593 | 44.87% | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 38,105 | 5.09% | |
| Green | Jill Stein | 14,251 | 1.91% | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) | 1,887 | 0.25% | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle (write-in) | 333 | 0.04% | |
| Independent | Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in) | 16 | 0.00% | |
| Independent | Cherunda Lynn Fox (write-in) | 7 | 0.00% | |
| Invalid or blank votes | 23,965 | 3.10%[32] | ||
| Majority | 22,142 | 2.96% | ||
| Total votes | 771,892 | 100.00% | ||
| Turnout | {{{votes}}} | 72.53 | ||
| Democratic win | ||||
County results edit
| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Androscoggin | 23,009 | 41.38% | 28,227 | 50.77% | 4,365 | 7.85% | -5,218 | -9.39% | 55,601 |
| Aroostook | 13,386 | 38.14% | 19,419 | 55.33% | 2,292 | 6.53% | -6,033 | -17.19% | 35,097 |
| Cumberland | 102,981 | 59.94% | 57,709 | 33.59% | 11,128 | 6.47% | 45,272 | 26.35% | 171,818 |
| Franklin | 7,016 | 42.55% | 7,918 | 48.02% | 1,554 | 9.43% | -902 | -5.47% | 16,488 |
| Hancock | 16,117 | 50.16% | 13,705 | 42.65% | 2,308 | 7.19% | 2,412 | 7.51% | 32,130 |
| Kennebec | 29,302 | 44.26% | 31,675 | 47.84% | 5,231 | 7.90% | -2,373 | -3.58% | 66,208 |
| Knox | 12,443 | 53.76% | 9,148 | 39.52% | 1,556 | 6.72% | 3,295 | 14.24% | 23,147 |
| Lincoln | 10,241 | 47.63% | 9,727 | 45.24% | 1,535 | 7.13% | 514 | 2.39% | 21,503 |
| Oxford | 12,172 | 39.01% | 16,210 | 51.95% | 2,819 | 9.04% | -4,038 | -12.94% | 31,201 |
| Penobscot | 32,838 | 40.77% | 41,622 | 51.68% | 6,080 | 7.55% | -8,784 | -10.91% | 80,540 |
| Piscataquis | 3,098 | 33.74% | 5,406 | 58.88% | 678 | 7.38% | -2,308 | -25.14% | 9,182 |
| Sagadahoc | 10,664 | 49.33% | 9,304 | 43.04% | 1,648 | 7.63% | 1,360 | 6.29% | 21,616 |
| Somerset | 9,092 | 34.88% | 15,001 | 57.55% | 1,971 | 7.57% | -5,909 | -22.67% | 26,064 |
| Waldo | 10,440 | 45.98% | 10,378 | 45.70% | 1,889 | 8.32% | 62 | 0.28% | 22,707 |
| Washington | 6,075 | 37.12% | 9,093 | 55.56% | 1,197 | 7.32% | -3,018 | -18.44% | 16,365 |
| York | 55,844 | 48.87% | 50,403 | 44.11% | 8,027 | 7.02% | 5,441 | 4.76% | 114,274 |
| Total | 357,735 | 47.83% | 335,593 | 44.87% | 54,599 | 7.30% | 22,142 | 2.96% | 747,927 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit
- Androscoggin (largest city: Lewiston)
- Aroostook (largest city: Presque Isle)
- Franklin (largest town: Farmington)
- Kennebec (largest city: Augusta)
- Oxford (largest town: Rumford)
- Penobscot (largest city: Bangor)
- Somerset (largest town: Skowhegan)
- Washington (largest city: Calais)
By congressional district edit
Clinton won the southern 1st district while Trump carried the more rural 2nd district.[34]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39.15% | 53.96% | Chellie Pingree |
| 2nd | 51.26% | 40.97% | Bruce Poliquin |
See also edit
Notes edit
- ^ Bush won the entire state of Maine in addition to the 2nd district, not on a split vote.
References edit
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
- ^ "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. from the original on September 10, 2018. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
- ^ "Maine Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. from the original on March 9, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
- ^ . Maine Green Independent Party. January 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ^ . Maine Green Independent Party. January 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ^ "Maine Green Independent Party holds caucuses". WCSH6.com.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Libertarian Party Selects Gary Johnson to be 2016 Nominee". C-SPAN.org. from the original on March 9, 2021. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ Cousins, Christopher (April 25, 2016). "Judge rejects Libertarians' appeal to become Maine political party". The Bangor Daily News. from the original on July 1, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Federal judge hands Maine libertarians a partial victory – The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". May 27, 2016. from the original on July 4, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Libertarians become Maine's fourth political party | State & Capitol". July 13, 2016. from the original on October 7, 2021. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. from the original on June 9, 2019. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. from the original on April 18, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. from the original on August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. from the original on December 22, 2017. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps – Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. from the original on December 31, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. from the original on September 29, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Maine: Trump vs. Clinton". from the original on June 7, 2017. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
- ^ a b c d "MPRC November 2016 Poll" (PDF). (PDF) from the original on May 6, 2020. Retrieved April 20, 2018.
- ^ a b c d "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. November 1, 2016. (PDF) from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. October 21, 2016. (PDF) from the original on October 22, 2016. Retrieved October 22, 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. October 12, 2016. (PDF) from the original on October 12, 2016. Retrieved October 12, 2016.
- ^ a b "For the first time, it looks like Maine's electoral votes will be split". University of New Hampshire. Portland Press Herald. September 25, 2016. from the original on September 26, 2016. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. September 20, 2016. (PDF) from the original on September 22, 2016. Retrieved September 20, 2016.
- ^ a b "Charts: Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram poll results". University of New Hampshire. Portland Press Herald. July 7, 2016. from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
- ^ a b "Colby College/Boston Globe Election Poll". Colby College. September 13, 2016. from the original on September 14, 2016. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
- ^ a b "Polls: Trump Threatens to Flip New Jersey, Rhode Island; Clinton Leads in New England States". www.peoplespunditdaily.com. September 7, 2016. from the original on September 8, 2016. Retrieved September 7, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Maine CD1: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". from the original on September 10, 2020. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Maine CD2: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". from the original on September 10, 2020. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
- ^ "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. from the original on July 1, 2017. Retrieved August 25, 2017.
- ^ Percentage of total ballots cast
- ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. from the original on August 3, 2020. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
- ^ LePage, Paul R. "Maine Certificate of Ascertainment 2016" (PDF). (PDF) from the original on October 19, 2020. Retrieved January 11, 2020.
External links edit
- RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
- Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
- State of Maine – Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions – Elections & Voting – Election Results