2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[1]

2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Turnout	68%
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state New York New York Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Electoral vote 14 0 Popular vote 2,148,278 1,601,933 Percentage 55.45% 41.35%
County results Municipality Results Congressional district results Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80% Tie/No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Clinton won the state with 55.5% of the vote over Trump's 41.35%, or a 14-point margin. Despite her victory in the state, Clinton's vote share was slightly poorer than the vote shares President Barack Obama got from the state in 2008 and 2012. This was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Pennsylvania, and the first time since 1932 that New Jersey voted Democratic while Pennsylvania voted Republican. Donald Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Somerset County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primary elections

New Jersey's presidential primaries were on June 7, 2016, with the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties participating.^[2] Registered members of each party could only vote in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated could choose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

Main article: 2016 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:^[3]

• Bernie Sanders
• Hillary Clinton

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	566,247	63.32%	79	12	91
Bernie Sanders	328,058	36.68%	47	2	49
Uncommitted	—		0	0	0
Total	894,305	100%	126	16	142
Source: The Green Papers, New Jersey Democratic Primary Official Results - New Jersey Department of State

Republican primary

 

Republican primary results by county:

  Donald Trump

•   70–80%
•   80–90%

3 candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:^[3]

• Ted Cruz (withdrawn prior to primary)
• John Kasich (withdrawn prior to primary)
• Donald Trump

New Jersey Republican primary, June 7, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	360,212	80.41%	51	0	51
John Kasich (withdrawn)	59,866	13.36%	0	0	0
Ted Cruz (withdrawn)	27,874	6.22%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	447,952	100.00%	51	0	51
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times^[4]	Safe D	November 6, 2016
CNN^[5]	Safe D	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report^[6]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com^[7]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[8]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[9]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics^[10]	Likely D	November 8, 2016
Fox News^[11]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Candidate ballot access

^[12]

• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine, Democratic
• Donald Trump/Mike Pence, Republican
• Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley, Constitution
• Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg, American Delta Party
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld, Libertarian
• Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart, Socialist Workers Party
• Gloria La Riva/Eugene Puryear, Socialism and Liberation
• Monica Moorehead/Lamont Lilly, Workers World Party
• Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka, Green Party

Results

2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	2,148,278	55.45%
	Republican	Donald Trump	1,601,933	41.35%
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	72,477	1.87%
	Green	Jill Stein	37,772	0.98%
	Constitution	Darrell Castle	6,161	0.16%
	Socialist Workers	Alyson Kennedy	2,156	0.06%
	American Delta Party	Rocky De La Fuente	1,838	0.05%
	Workers World	Monica Moorehead	1,749	0.05%
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva	1,682	0.04%
Majority			546,345	14.10%
Turnout			3,874,046

Results by county

County	Hillary Clinton Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Atlantic	60,924	51.61%	52,690	44.64%	4,427	3.75%	8,234	6.97%	118,041
Bergen	231,211	54.76%	175,529	41.57%	15,473	3.67%	55,682	13.19%	422,213
Burlington	121,725	55.01%	89,272	40.34%	10,286	4.65%	32,453	14.67%	221,283
Camden	146,717	64.06%	72,631	31.71%	9,699	4.23%	74,086	32.35%	229,047
Cape May	18,750	38.07%	28,446	57.75%	2,061	4.18%	-9,696	-19.68%	49,257
Cumberland	27,771	51.11%	24,453	45.01%	2,107	3.88%	3,318	6.10%	54,331
Essex	240,837	76.97%	63,176	20.19%	8,871	2.84%	177,661	56.78%	312,884
Gloucester	66,870	47.34%	67,544	47.82%	6,840	4.84%	-674	-0.48%	141,254
Hudson	163,917	74.32%	49,043	22.24%	7,582	3.44%	114,874	52.08%	220,542
Hunterdon	28,898	40.33%	38,712	54.02%	4,050	5.65%	-9,814	-13.69%	71,660
Mercer	104,775	66.29%	46,193	29.23%	7,090	4.48%	58,582	37.06%	158,058
Middlesex	193,044	58.76%	122,953	37.42%	12,560	3.82%	70,091	21.34%	328,557
Monmouth	137,181	43.17%	166,723	52.47%	13,846	4.36%	-29,542	-9.30%	317,750
Morris	115,249	45.46%	126,071	49.72%	12,217	4.82%	-10,822	-4.26%	253,537
Ocean	87,150	31.49%	179,079	64.71%	10,496	3.80%	-91,929	-33.22%	276,725
Passaic	116,759	59.50%	72,902	37.15%	6,567	3.35%	43,857	22.35%	196,228
Salem	11,904	39.88%	16,381	54.87%	1,568	5.25%	-4,477	-14.99%	29,853
Somerset	85,689	54.55%	65,505	41.70%	5,898	3.75%	20,184	12.85%	157,092
Sussex	24,212	32.21%	46,658	62.08%	4,288	5.71%	-22,446	-29.87%	75,158
Union	147,414	65.94%	68,114	30.47%	8,042	3.59%	79,300	35.47%	223,570
Warren	17,281	34.78%	29,858	60.10%	2,544	5.12%	-12,577	-25.32%	49,683
Totals	2,148,278	54.99%	1,601,933	41.00%	156,512	4.01%	546,345	13.99%	3,906,723

 Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

 Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

 County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

^[14]

• Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
• Salem (largest city: Salem)

By congressional district

Clinton won 7 of 12 congressional districts. Trump and Clinton each won a district held by the other party.^[15]

District	Clinton	Trump	Representative
1st	60.6%	36.1%	Donald Norcross
2nd	46.0%	50.6%	Frank LoBiondo
3rd	45.2%	51.4%	Tom MacArthur
4th	41.0%	55.8%	Chris Smith
5th	47.7%	48.8%	Scott Garrett
			Josh Gottheimer
6th	56.2%	40.6%	Frank Pallone Jr.
7th	48.6%	47.5%	Leonard Lance
8th	75.7%	21.5%	Albio Sires
9th	64.3%	33.1%	Bill Pascrell
10th	85.2%	12.8%	Donald Payne Jr.
11th	47.9%	48.8%	Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th	65.0%	31.8%	Bonnie Watson Coleman

Analysis

Hillary Clinton's 55.5% of the vote was 2.9% less than Barack Obama's win in the state in 2012. Overall, the trend from 2012 to 2016 was that suburban areas of central and northern New Jersey voted more Democratic, while the shore and southern New Jersey voted more Republican. Clinton's most notable improvements over Obama in 2012 were seen in Union, Somerset, and Morris Counties. In Morris, Clinton came within 5% of winning the county, which had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Clinton's stronger performance in the suburban towns of north-central New Jersey, such as Summit, Westfield, and Bridgewater, helped her narrowly win the 7th congressional district.

On the other hand, southern New Jersey, especially Cumberland County and Salem County, voted significantly more Republican than they had in 2012. For example, even though Cumberland County voted Democratic in both 2012 and 2016, Clinton won it by just 6%, whereas Obama won it by nearly 24% in 2012. Additionally, the four shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May all voted more Republican than they had in 2012. While Mitt Romney had won these four counties collectively by around 6% in 2012, Trump won them by 17% in 2016.

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Jersey
• Presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey

References

1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
2. Green papers for 2016 primaries (D) (R). Retrieved 2016-04-05.
3. (PDF). NJ.gov. April 14, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 30, 2017. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
4. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
5. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
6. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
7. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
8. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
9. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
10. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
11. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
12. "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/08/2016 Election" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. August 12, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
13. (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. December 6, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 7, 2017. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
14. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
15. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com. Retrieved April 7, 2018.