2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,384,375 1,036,477 Percentage 56.81% 42.51%

County Results Bush   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Kerry   40-50%   50-60%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Tennessee was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 14.30% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. In the past 14 presidential elections, the Republican nominee won ten of them. The state trended more Republican by 10.43 points from Bush's performance in 2000. Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Third party and independent candidates made up just 0.68% of the vote.

As of 2020, this is the last time that the following counties have voted Democratic in a presidential election: Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County. This is also the last time that Tennessee has voted to the right of Arkansas, or to the left of Georgia.

Primaries

The 2004 Tennessee primary took place on February 10, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States Democratic presidential primaries. The delegate allocation is Proportional. the candidates are awarded delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes received and is open to anyone. A total of 69 (of 85) delegates are awarded proportionally. A 15 percent threshold is required to receive delegates. Frontrunner John Kerry won the primary with Senator John Edwards and former general Wesley Clark both obtaining over 20% and receiving delegates.

Kerry won most of the counties and all the congressional districts. Although, Kerry didn't do well in the middle of the state, winning the 4th, 5th, and 6th CDs with less than 40% of the vote. Edwards won 4 counties in the state. In Sullivan County, Tennessee Edwards obtained 42% of the vote but lost to Kerry with a small margin. Clark gained over 30% of the vote in just 2 counties, including his best performance in Montgomery County, TN. The largest turnout came from Shelby County and Davidson County.

United States presidential primary election in Tennessee, 2004^[1]^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
	Democratic	John Kerry	151,527	41.0%	31
	Democratic	John Edwards	97,914	26.5%	20
	Democratic	Wesley Clark	85,315	23.1%	18
	Democratic	Howard Dean	16,128	4.4%	0
	Democratic	Al Sharpton	6,107	1.7%	0
	Democratic	Joe Lieberman	3,213	0.9%	0
	Democratic	Uncommitted	2,727	0.7%	0
	Democratic	Carol Moseley-Braun	2,490	0.7%	0
	Democratic	Dennis Kucinich	2,279	0.6%	0
	Democratic	Richard Gephardt	1,402	0.4%	0
	Democratic	Lyndon Larouche	283	0.1%	0
Totals				-	100.00%	69
Voter turnout				%		—

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[3]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean R
Associated Press	Lean R
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Lean R
Newsweek	Solid R
New York Times	Solid R
Rasmussen Reports	Likely R
Research 2000	Solid R
Washington Post	Likely R
Washington Times	Solid R
Zogby International	Likely R
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 49%. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.^[4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,636,916.^[5] Kerry raised $1,187,742.^[6]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.^[7][8]

Analysis

While the Republicans control slightly more than half of the state, Democrats have strong support in the cities of Memphis and Nashville and in parts of Middle Tennessee and in West Tennessee north and east of Memphis^[9] The latter area includes a large rural African-American population.^[10]

Despite Tennessee being a swing state from the 1950s to the 2000s, it was not seriously contested in 2004. Vice President Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, lost his home state in 2000 albeit by a thin margin. The majority of voters support for Republican George W. Bush increased in 2004, with his margin of victory in the state increasing from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2004.^[11] Southern Democratic nominees (e.g., Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) usually fare better in Tennessee, especially among split-ticket voters outside the metropolitan areas.

As of the 2020 presidential election^[update], this is the last election in which Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County voted for the Democratic candidate, as John McCain would outperform Bush in the state four years later.

Results

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004^[12]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Dick Cheney	1,384,375	56.81%	11
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,036,477	42.51%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Peter Camejo	8,992	0.37%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	4,866	0.20%	0
	Constitution Party	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	2,570	0.11%	0
	Green Party	David Cobb	Pat LaMarche	33	0.00%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	Mary Alice Herbert	6	0.00%	0
Totals				2,437,919	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						54.8%

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Anderson	40.7%	12,896	58.4%	18,510	0.9%	276
Bedford	38.4%	5,268	60.9%	8,351	0.6%	87
Benton	54.6%	3,869	44.6%	3,161	0.8%	60
Bledsoe	40.1%	1,927	59.2%	2,849	0.7%	33
Blount	30.9%	15,047	68.2%	33,241	0.9%	424
Bradley	26.5%	9,431	72.8%	25,951	0.7%	255
Campbell	43.7%	6,163	55.7%	7,859	0.7%	96
Cannon	45.9%	2,515	53.5%	2,931	0.6%	35
Carroll	43.1%	5,070	56.2%	6,605	0.7%	82
Carter	28.7%	6,395	70.7%	15,768	0.7%	150
Cheatham	37.7%	5,918	61.6%	9,676	0.7%	103
Chester	35.3%	2,242	64.3%	4,086	0.5%	29
Claiborne	38.3%	4,034	61.2%	6,448	0.6%	58
Clay	49.9%	1,675	49.2%	1,650	1.0%	32
Cocke	32.0%	3,935	67.4%	8,297	0.6%	79
Coffee	40.9%	8,243	58.5%	11,793	0.6%	131
Crockett	43.0%	2,459	56.7%	3,242	0.4%	21
Cumberland	35.2%	8,327	64.1%	15,144	0.7%	166
Davidson	54.8%	132,737	44.5%	107,839	0.7%	1,726
Decatur	46.5%	2,268	52.6%	2,566	0.9%	45
DeKalb	48.0%	3,445	51.4%	3,685	0.6%	43
Dickson	44.5%	8,597	54.8%	10,567	0.7%	134
Dyer	38.3%	5,287	61.2%	8,447	0.5%	75
Fayette	38.7%	5,696	60.8%	8,962	0.5%	79
Fentress	35.4%	2,371	64.1%	4,293	0.5%	36
Franklin	45.7%	7,800	53.5%	9,129	0.9%	148
Gibson	44.3%	8,511	55.1%	10,596	0.6%	114
Giles	45.7%	5,273	53.4%	6,163	0.9%	101
Grainger	34.1%	2,569	65.2%	4,907	0.7%	51
Greene	31.6%	7,635	67.7%	16,382	0.7%	177
Grundy	56.6%	2,789	42.7%	2,107	0.7%	33
Hamblen	33.3%	7,433	66.1%	14,742	0.6%	143
Hamilton	41.8%	57,302	57.4%	78,547	0.8%	1,087
Hancock	30.5%	777	68.8%	1,756	0.7%	18
Hardeman	54.3%	5,685	44.9%	4,704	0.7%	77
Hardin	38.5%	3,834	61.2%	6,087	0.3%	33
Hawkins	33.0%	6,684	66.5%	13,447	0.5%	102
Haywood	57.8%	4,359	41.6%	3,140	0.6%	49
Henderson	34.2%	3,448	65.2%	6,585	0.6%	63
Henry	43.5%	5,732	55.7%	7,340	0.8%	105
Hickman	49.2%	4,263	50.3%	4,359	0.6%	51
Houston	59.1%	2,126	40.0%	1,440	0.9%	32
Humphreys	57.6%	4,485	41.8%	3,261	0.6%	47
Jackson	59.3%	2,998	40.1%	2,026	0.6%	32
Jefferson	31.8%	5,469	67.5%	11,625	0.7%	121
Johnson	28.0%	1,812	71.5%	4,634	0.5%	34
Knox	37.0%	66,013	62.1%	110,803	0.9%	1,603
Lake	55.6%	2,634	43.8%	2,078	0.6%	28
Lauderdale	51.5%	4,474	48.0%	4,164	0.5%	44
Lawrence	39.6%	6,592	59.8%	9,959	0.6%	107
Lewis	43.4%	2,192	55.8%	2,819	0.9%	43
Lincoln	36.5%	4,546	62.8%	7,829	0.7%	82
Loudon	28.7%	5,708	70.7%	14,041	0.6%	115
McMinn	32.7%	5,891	66.5%	11,980	0.7%	132
McNairy	41.3%	4,101	58.3%	5,787	0.4%	36
Macon	36.8%	2,738	62.8%	4,670	0.3%	25
Madison	43.5%	16,840	56.1%	21,679	0.4%	156
Marion	48.3%	5,548	51.0%	5,862	0.7%	82
Marshall	44.5%	4,722	54.9%	5,825	0.6%	68
Maury	41.2%	12,379	58.3%	17,505	0.5%	159
Meigs	38.6%	1,595	60.5%	2,500	0.9%	37
Monroe	34.4%	5,354	65.0%	10,123	0.6%	91
Montgomery	41.0%	20,070	58.4%	28,627	0.6%	301
Moore	39.1%	1,084	60.1%	1,668	0.8%	22
Morgan	39.7%	2,924	59.8%	4,401	0.5%	35
Obion	41.0%	5,549	58.1%	7,859	0.9%	127
Overton	53.1%	4,518	46.3%	3,941	0.6%	51
Perry	50.1%	1,579	48.3%	1,522	1.6%	49
Pickett	39.1%	1,033	60.5%	1,600	0.5%	12
Polk	40.7%	2,724	58.6%	3,924	0.8%	52
Putnam	40.0%	10,566	59.1%	15,637	0.9%	239
Rhea	33.2%	3,665	66.0%	7,301	0.8%	88
Roane	37.3%	8,706	62.0%	14,467	0.7%	165
Robertson	39.0%	9,865	60.5%	15,331	0.5%	127
Rutherford	37.5%	31,647	61.8%	52,200	0.7%	562
Scott	40.5%	3,086	59.1%	4,509	0.4%	33
Sequatchie	39.9%	1,986	59.2%	2,951	0.9%	46
Sevier	27.8%	8,621	71.5%	22,143	0.7%	206
Shelby	57.5%	216,945	41.9%	158,137	0.6%	2,200
Smith	51.7%	4,044	47.8%	3,739	0.6%	45
Stewart	51.2%	2,860	47.9%	2,675	0.9%	48
Sullivan	31.3%	19,637	67.9%	42,555	0.7%	447
Sumner	34.6%	21,458	64.8%	40,181	0.5%	329
Tipton	34.0%	7,379	65.4%	14,178	0.6%	120
Trousdale	58.0%	1,851	41.2%	1,314	0.58%	26
Unicoi	31.8%	2,374	67.4%	5,030	0.8%	59
Union	37.6%	2,524	61.8%	4,145	0.6%	41
Van Buren	51.5%	1,209	47.7%	1,120	0.8%	18
Warren	47.3%	6,808	52.1%	7,503	0.6%	89
Washington	33.2%	14,944	66.1%	29,735	0.7%	327
Wayne	32.6%	1,951	66.8%	3,999	0.6%	34
Weakley	41.4%	5,588	57.9%	7,817	0.7%	91
White	43.7%	4,147	55.5%	5,269	0.8%	79
Williamson	27.3%	21,732	72.1%	57,451	0.6%	467
Wilson	34.4%	15,277	65.1%	28,924	0.6%	251

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Bedford (Largest city: Shelbyville)
• Cannon (Largest city: Woodbury)
• Crockett (Largest city: Bells)
• Decatur (Largest city: Parsons)
• DeKalb (Largest city: Smithville)
• Dickson (Largest city: Dickson)
• Franklin (Largest city: Winchester)
• Gibson (Largest city: Humboldt)
• Giles (Largest city: Pulaski)
• Henry (Largest city: Paris)
• Hickman (Largest city: Centerville)
• Lewis (Largest city: Hohenwald)
• Marion (Largest city: Jasper)
• Marshall (Largest city: Lewisburg)
• Robertson (Largest city: Springfield)
• Warren (Largest city: McMinnville)
• White (Largest city: Sparta)

By congressional district

Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.^[13]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	68%	31%	William L Jenkins
2nd	64%	35%	John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd	61%	38%	Zach Wamp
4th	58%	41%	Lincoln Davis
5th	48%	52%	Jim Cooper
6th	60%	40%	Bart Gordon
7th	66%	33%	Marsha Blackburn
8th	53%	47%	John S. Tanner
9th	30%	70%	Harold Ford Jr.

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:^[14]

1. Susan Anderson
2. Betty Cannon
3. Winfield Dunn
4. Geneva Williams Harrison
5. Brock Hill
6. Bruce Montgomery
7. Claude Ramsey
8. Bob Rial
9. John Ryder
10. Mark Tipps
11. Sally Wall

References

1. Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
2. "CNN.com 2004 Primaries". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
3. . dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 21 November 2010. Retrieved 17 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
4. . Archived from the original on 2008-11-28. Retrieved 2009-11-29.
5. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
6. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
7. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
8. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
9. . Archived from the original on 2009-01-03. Retrieved 2009-11-29.
10. Tennessee by County - GCT-PL. Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine U.S. Census Bureau
11. Tennessee: McCain Leads Both Democrats by Double Digits 2008-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Rasumussen Reports, April 6, 2008
12. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee".
13. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
14. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved 13 August 2018.