2012 United States Senate election in Ohio

The 2012 United States Senate election in Ohio took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican Josh Mandel, the Ohio State Treasurer. Brown was unopposed in the Democratic primary while Mandel won the Republican primary with 63% of the vote.^[2][3]

2012 United States Senate election in Ohio

← 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
Turnout	64.6% ^[1]
Nominee Sherrod Brown Josh Mandel Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,762,766 2,435,744 Percentage 50.70% 44.70%
County results Congressional district results Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Mandel:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election Sherrod Brown Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown Democratic

Democratic primary

Results

Democratic primary results^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Sherrod Brown (incumbent)	522,827	100.00%
Total votes			522,827	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Filed

• Russell Bliss
• David Dodt
• Donna Glisman, retired entrepreneur^[5]
• Eric LaMont Gregory, medical scientist^[6]
• Josh Mandel, Ohio State Treasurer^[7]
• Michael Pryce, surgeon^[8]

Withdrew

• Kevin Coughlin, former Ohio state senator (dropped out)^[9][10]

Endorsements

Josh Mandel was endorsed by Rob Portman, U.S. Senator (R-OH);^[11] Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (R-SC);^[12] Jim Jordan, U.S. Congressman (R-OH);^[13]Club for Growth;^[14] National Rifle Association of America;^[15] Tea Party Express;^[16] Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida;^{[citation needed]} John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ);^[17] Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (R-FL);^[18] Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey;^[19] Afghanistan & Iraq Veterans for Congress (AIVC);^[20] Buckeye Firearms Association^[21] National Right to Life Committee;^[22] Ohio Right to Life;^[23] and National Federation of Independent Business^[24]

Results

 

Results by county:

Mandel

•   Mandel—80–90%
•   Mandel—70–80%
•   Mandel—60–70%
•   Mandel—50–60%
•   Mandel—40–50%
•   Mandel—<40%

Republican primary results^[25]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Josh Mandel	580,525	63.00%
	Republican	Michael Pryce	130,370	14.15%
	Republican	Donna Glisman	114,183	12.39%
	Republican	David Dodt	47,278	5.13%
	Republican	Eric Gregory	47,123	5.11%
	Republican	Russell Bliss	1,927	0.21%
Total votes			921,406	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Sherrod Brown (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Josh Mandel (Republican), Ohio State Treasurer
• Scott Rupert February 1, 2016, at the Wayback Machine (Independent), truck driver^[26]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN

Campaign

In 2006, U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown defeated two-term incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mike DeWine 56%-44% 2006 election. Over the next six years, he established a very liberal, progressive, and populist record. The National Journal named Brown the most liberal U.S. Senator in the past two years.^[27] The Washington Post called him a "modern-day Paul Wellstone." One article said "Brown is way to the left of Ohio in general, but probably the only person who could outwork Brown is Portman."^[28] Brown is the only candidate the 60 Plus Association targeted in the 2012 election cycle.^[29]

Mandel, 34, was elected state treasurer in 2010. Before that, he was a Lyndhurst City Councilman and Ohio State Representative. He was criticized as Ohio Treasurer for not fulfilling his pledge to serve a four-year term and for not attending any of the Board of Deposit monthly meetings.^[30] However, Mandel raised a lot of money. He was called a rising star in the Republican Party and was called "the rock star of the party." He was also compared to Marco Rubio.^[31]

Mandel's campaign was singled out by the independent fact-checking group Politifact for its "casual relationship with the truth" and its tendency to "double down" after inaccuracies were pointed out. The fact-checking group wrote: "For all the gifts Mandel has, from his compelling personal narrative as an Iraq war veteran to a well-oiled fundraising machine, whoppers are fast becoming a calling card of his candidacy."^[32]

Mandel raised $7.2 million through the first quarter of 2012. He had $5.3 million cash on hand, trailing Brown's $6.3 million.^[33] However, Mandel benefited from massive support from conservative out-of-state superPACs, which raise unlimited amounts of money from anonymous donors. These outside groups, including Crossroads GPS, aired over $60 million in TV advertising supporting Mandel and attacking Brown,^[34] outspending Democratically aligned outside groups by more than five-to-one.^[35] Mandel's campaign was aided by over $1 million spent primarily on attack ads by a 501(c)(4) organization called the Government Integrity Fund. The group was funded by anonymous donors and run by lobbyist Tom Norris of Columbus, Ohio-based Cap Square Solutions.^[36]

Endorsements

Brown was endorsed by the Cleveland Plain Dealer,^[37] the Columbus Dispatch,^[38] the Toledo Blade,^[39] the Youngstown Vindicator,^[40] The Cincinnati Enquirer,^[41] and the Akron Beacon-Journal.^[42]

Mandel was endorsed by the Warren Tribune-Chronicle^[43] and the Marietta Times.^[44]

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Sherrod Brown (D)	$8,132,882	$3,379,775	$6,273,316	$0
Josh Mandel (R)	$7,286,390	$1,999,397	$5,286,993	$0
Scott Rupert (I)	$3,153	$2,594	$389	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[45]^[46]^[47]

Top contributors

^[48]

Sherrod Brown	Contribution	Josh Mandel	Contribution
JStreetPAC	$71,175	Club for Growth	$172,904
Ohio State University	$69,470	Senate Conservatives Fund	$114,400
Kohrman, Jackson & Krantz	$59,500	Suarez Corp	$90,000
Cleveland Clinic	$57,971	Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman	$41,600
Forest City Enterprises	$51,600	American Financial Group	$32,750
American Electric Power	$42,350	Cintas Corp	$30,000
Squire Sanders	$39,400	Sullivan & Cromwell	$25,475
Baker & Hostetler	$38,906	Susquehanna International Group	$22,500
Case Western Reserve University	$35,450	Timken Company	$22,500
Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease	$34,167	Crawford Group	$22,000

Top industries

^[49]

Sherrod Brown	Contribution	Josh Mandel	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$1,587,113	Retired	$480,900
Retired	$942,717	Financial Institutions	$397,140
Health Professionals	$536,954	Real Estate	$371,057
Real Estate	$435,066	Lawyers/Law Firms	$362,515
Lobbyists	$393,651	Leadership PACs	$320,050
Education	$369,722	Republican/Conservative	$278,924
Leadership PACs	$318,975	Manufacturing & Distributing	$276,600
Hospitals/Nursing Homes	$286,072	Misc Finance	$205,350
Insurance	$223,983	Retail Industry	$166,650
Financial Institutions	$204,350	Pro-Israel	$163,000

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[50]	Lean D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[51]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[52]	Lean D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[53]	Lean D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Josh Mandel (R)	Other	Undecided
	March 10–13, 2011	559	±4.1%	48%	32%	—	21%
Quinnipiac^[permanent dead link]	May 10–16, 2011	1,379	±2.6%	45%	31%	2%	21%
	May 19–22, 2011	565	±4.1%	48%	31%	—	21%
Quinnipiac	July 12–18, 2011	1,659	±4.1%	49%	34%	1%	16%
	August 11–14, 2011	792	±3.5%	48%	33%	—	19%
	September 20–25, 2011	1,301	±2.7%	49%	36%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	October 13–16, 2011	581	±4.1%	48%	40%	—	12%
	October 17–23, 2011	1,668	±2.4%	49%	34%	1%	14%
Public Policy Polling	November 4–6, 2011	1,421	±2.6%	48%	35%	—	14%
Quinnipiac February 3, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	January 9–16, 2012	1,610	±2.4%	47%	32%	1%	18%
Public Policy Polling	January 28–29, 2012	820	±3.4%	47%	36%	—	17%
Rasmussen Reports	February 8, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	40%	4%	12%
Quinnipiac September 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	February 7–12, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	35%	4%	17%
	February 29 – March 2, 2012	3,079	±1.8%	47%	37%	—	16%
Quinnipiac March 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	March 20–26, 2012	1,246	±2.8%	46%	36%	3%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	March 26, 2012	500	±4.5%	43%	43%	3%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	April 18, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	41%	3%	12%
Public Policy Polling	May 3–6, 2012	875	±3.3%	45%	37%	—	19%
Quinnipiac September 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	May 2–7, 2012	1,069	±3.0%	46%	40%	1%	13%
	May 17–20, 2012	1,103	±3.0%	51%	37%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports	May 29, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	42%	3%	7%
Public Policy Polling	June 21–24, 2012	673	±3.8%	46%	39%	—	15%
Quinnipiac October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	June 19–25, 2012	1,237	±2.8%	50%	34%	1%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	July 18, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	42%	4%	8%
Magellan Strategies	July 23–24, 2012	597	±4.0%	45%	38%	12%	5%
Quinnipiac August 1, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	July 24–30, 2012	1,193	±2.8%	51%	39%	1%	9%
Rasmussen Reports	August 13, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	44%	3%	9%
Quinnipiac September 27, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	August 15–21, 2012	1,253	±2.8%	48%	45%	1%	10%
Ohio Poll	August 16–21, 2012	847	±3.4%	48%	47%	—	5%
Columbus Dispatch	August 15–25, 2012	1,758	±2.1%	44%	44%	—	12%
Gravis Marketing	September 7–8, 2012	1,548	±2.7%	47%	42%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	September 7–9, 2012	1,072	±3.0%	48%	40%	—	11%
	September 9–11, 2012	979	±3.1%	49%	42%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	September 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	49%	41%	3%	7%
Ohio Newspaper Organization	September 13–18, 2012	861	±3.3%	52%	45%	1%	2%
	September 16–18, 2012	1,009	±3.0%	47%	40%	1%	9%
	September 21–22, 2012	594	±4.3%	44%	43%	—	13%
Washington Post	September 19–23, 2012	934	±4.0%	53%	41%	—	6%
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac	September 18–24, 2012	1,162	±4.0%	50%	40%	—	10%
	September 30 – October 1, 2012	931	±3.2%	50%	41%	1%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	October 4, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	46%	2%	6%
SurveyUSA	October 5–8, 2012	808	±3.5%	42%	38%	4%	16%
	October 7–9, 2012	994	±3.1%	52%	41%	1%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	October 10, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	46%	2%	4%
Public Policy Polling	October 12–13, 2012	880	±3.3%	49%	42%	—	9%
Survey USA	October 12–15, 2012	613	±4.0%	43%	38%	4%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	October 17, 2012	750	±4.0%	49%	44%	1%	5%
CBS News/Quinnipiac	October 17–20, 2012	1,548	±3.0%	51%	42%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	October 18–20, 2012	532	±4.3%	49%	44%	—	7%
	October 18–20, 2012	550	±4.2%	52%	45%	3%	—
Suffolk	October 18–21, 2012	600	unknown	46%	39%	6%	10%
	October 19–21, 2012	810	±3.4%	52%	41%	—	7%
SurveyUSA	October 20–22, 2012	725	±4.2%	43%	42%	3%	12%
Rasmussen Reports	October 23, 2012	750	±4.0%	48%	44%	2%	5%
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News	October 18–23, 2012	1,015	±3.1%	51%	47%	1%	2%
Gravis Marketing October 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	October 27, 2012	730	±3.6%	48%	47%	—	5%
CBS/Quinnipiac University	October 23–28, 2012	1,110	±3.0%	51%	42%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	October 26–28, 2012	718	±3.7%	53%	42%	—	6%
Pharos Research	October 26–28, 2012	765	±3.5%	53%	43%	—	7%
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2012	750	±4.0%	50%	48%	1%	1%
SurveyUSA	October 26–29, 2012	603	±4.1%	46%	41%	3%	10%
University of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll	October 25–30, 2012	1,182	±2.9%	49%	44%	4%	3%
Reuters/Ipsos	October 29–31, 2012	885	±3.8%	49%	41%	4%	6%
	October 31 – November 1, 2012	971	±3.1%	50%	45%	1%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	November 1, 2012	750	±4.0%	48%	48%	2%	2%
Columbus Dispatch	October 24 – November 3, 2012	1,501	±2.2%	51%	45%	4%	—
Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati	October 31 – November 4, 2012	901	±3.3%	51%	47%	3%	—
SurveyUSA	November 1–4, 2012	803	±3.5%	44%	41%	4%	9%
	November 2–4, 2012	572	±4.1%	52%	46%	2%	—
Public Policy Polling	November 3–4, 2012	1,000	±3.1%	54%	44%	—	3%
Rasmussen Reports	November 4, 2012	750	±4%	50%	48%	1%	1%

Hypothetical polling

Democratic primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown	Other/ Undecided
	January 23, 2012	1,600	±3%	77%	23%
	February 6, 2012	1,600	±3%	84%	16%
	February 13, 2012	1,600	±3%	81%	19%
	February 20–27, 2012	1,600	±3%	91%	9%

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kevin Coughlin	Josh Mandel	Other/ Undecided
Quinnipiac	July 12–18, 2011	563	±4.1%	12%	35%	46%
	August 11–14, 2011	400	±4.9%	12%	31%	57%
	September 20–25, 2011	423	±4.8%	12%	33%	53%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ken Blackwell	Kevin Coughlin	Josh Mandel	Other/ Undecided
Quinnipiac April 15, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	May 10–16, 2011	1,379	±2.6%	33%	5%	17%	46%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Ken Blackwell (R)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac^[permanent dead link]	May 10–16, 2011	1,379	±2.6%	44%	35%	2%	18%
	May 19–22, 2011	565	±4.1%	51%	33%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Drew Carey (R)	Other	Undecided
	March 10–13, 2011	559	±4.1%	49%	34%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Kevin Coughlin (R)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac^[permanent dead link]	May 10–16, 2011	1,379	±2.6%	44%	28%	3%	23%
	May 19–22, 2011	565	±4.1%	51%	30%	—	19%
Quinnipiac	July 12–18, 2011	1,659	±4.1%	50%	32%	1%	18%
	August 11–14, 2011	792	±3.5%	47%	33%	—	20%
	September 20–25, 2011	1,301	±2.7%	53%	32%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	October 13–16, 2011	581	±4.1%	48%	37%	—	15%
	October 17–23, 2011	1,668	±2.4%	51%	30%	1%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Mike DeWine (R)	Other	Undecided
	December 10–12, 2010	510	±4.3%	43%	43%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Jon Husted (R)	Other	Undecided
	December 10–12, 2010	510	±4.3%	43%	38%	—	18%
	March 10–13, 2011	559	±4.1%	49%	34%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Jim Jordan (R)	Other	Undecided
	December 10–12, 2010	510	±4.3%	43%	35%	—	22%
	March 10–13, 2011	559	±4.1%	49%	30%	—	21%
	May 19–22, 2011	565	±4.1%	49%	31%	—	21%
	August 11–14, 2011	792	±3.5%	47%	35%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Steve LaTourette (R)	Other	Undecided
	March 10–13, 2011	559	±4.1%	48%	30%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Mary Taylor (R)	Other	Undecided
	December 10–12, 2010	510	±4.3%	40%	38%	—	22%
	March 10–13, 2011	559	±4.1%	49%	30%	—	21%
	May 19–22, 2011	565	±4.1%	50%	31%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Jim Tressel (R)	Other	Undecided
	August 11–14, 2011	792	±3.5%	46%	34%	—	20%

Results

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012^[54]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Sherrod Brown (incumbent)	2,762,766	50.70%	-5.46%
	Republican	Josh Mandel	2,435,744	44.70%	+0.88%
	Independent	Scott Rupert	250,618	4.60%	N/A
Total votes			5,449,128	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Harrison (Largest city: Cadiz)
• Hocking (Largest city: Logan)
• Jackson (Largest city: Jackson)
• Lawrence (Largest city: Ironton)
• Noble (Largest city: Caldwell)
• Vinton (Largest city: McArthur)
• Seneca (Largest city: Tiffin)
• Huron (Largest city: Norwalk)
• Columbiana (Largest city: Salem)
• Carroll (Largest city: Carrollton)
• Tuscarawas (largest city: New Philadelphia)
• Guernsey (Largest city: Cambridge)
• Coshocton (Largest city: Coshocton)
• Geauga (Largest city: Chardon)
• Medina (Largest city: Medina)
• Morgan (Largest city: McConnelsville)
• Washington (Largest city: Marietta)
• Muskingum (Largest city: Zanesville)
• Perry (Largest city: New Lexington)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Hamilton (largest municipality: Cincinnati)

By congressional district

Brown won 6 of 16 congressional districts, including the 10th and 14th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.^[55]

District	Brown	Mandel	Representative
1st	47.20%	49.13%	Steve Chabot
2nd	44.52%	51.01%	Jean Schmidt (112th Congress)
			Brad Wenstrup (113th Congress)
3rd	68.41%	27.73%	Mike Turner (112th Congress)
			Joyce Beatty (113th Congress)
4th	40.48%	54.19%	Jim Jordan
5th	43.26%	51.76%	Bob Latta
6th	44.46%	49.92%	Bill Johnson
7th	44.18%	49.81%	Steve Austria (112th Congress)
			Bob Gibbs (113th Congress)
8th	36.53%	58.92%	John Boehner
9th	66.47%	28.93%	Marcy Kaptur
10th	48.52%	47.74%	Dennis Kucinich (112th Congress)
			Mike Turner (113th Congress)
11th	81.90%	15.71%	Marcia Fudge
12th	44.27%	51.09%	Pat Tiberi
13th	63.80%	30.99%	Betty Sutton (112th Congress)
			Tim Ryan (113th Congress)
14th	48.07%	47.14%	Steve LaTourette (112th Congress)
			Dave Joyce (113th Congress)
15th	46.15%	48.89%	Steve Stivers
16th	46.46%	48.47%	Jim Renacci

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio

References

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37. "Sherrod Brown has earned a second term in the Senate: editorial". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. October 6, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013. ],
38. "Brown's experience makes him the better choice for voters". dispatch.com. Columbus Dispatch (subscription). October 31, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
39. "Re-elect Senator Brown". toledoblade.com. The Toledo Blade. October 7, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
40. . vindy.com. The Youngstown Vindicator. October 8, 2012. Archived from the original on December 13, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
41. "Brown dedicated to Ohio's needs, problems". Cincinnati.com. Cincinnati Enquirer. October 27, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
42. "For the U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown". Ohio.com. Akron Beacon Journal. September 22, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
43. "Mandel best for economic future of Ohio". tribtoday.com. Tribune Chronicle (Warren, OH). October 21, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
44. "Vote for Mandel on Nov. 6". MariettaTimes.com. Marietta Times. October 13, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
48. OpenSecrets
49. Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
50. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
51. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
52. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
53. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
54. Election results. 2012
55. "Daily Kos".

External links

• Ohio Secretary of State - Elections July 26, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites