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Theodore Modis

January 01, 1970

Not to be confused with Theodoros Modis.

Theodore Modis (born August 11, 1943) is a strategic business analyst, futurist, physicist, and international consultant. He specializes in applying fundamental scientific concepts to predicting social phenomena. In particular, he uses the law of natural growth in competition as expressed by the logistic function or S-curve to forecast markets, product sales, primary-energy substitutions, the diffusion of technologies, and generally any process that grows in competition.[1][2][3][4][5] He is a vehement critic of the concept of the Technological Singularity.[6][7][8][9][10] He has suggested a simple mathematical relationship between Entropy and Complexity as the latter being the time derivative of the former.[11]

Theodore Modis
Modis in 2020
Born (1943-08-11) August 11, 1943 (age 80)
Greece
NationalityGreek, Swiss
Alma materAnatolia College
Columbia University
Known forExpertise in S-Curve
Criticism of the Technological Singularity
Scientific career
FieldsPhysics, forecasting, business consulting
InstitutionsCERN
University of Geneva
Digital Equipment Corporation
Growth Dynamics
Academic advisorsJack Steinberger

He currently lives in Lugano, Switzerland.

Education edit

He went to Columbia University, New York, where he received a master's degree in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in High Energy Physics, (sponsor J. Steinberger). His secondary education was in Greece at Anatolia College in Thessaloniki, Greece.

Career edit

Modis carried out research in particle physics at Brookhaven National Laboratories and CERN before moving to work at Digital Equipment Corporation for more than a decade as the head of a management science consultants group. He has on occasion taught at Columbia University, the University of Geneva, Webster University, the European business schools INSEAD and IMD, and was a professor at DUXX Graduate School of Business Leadership in Monterrey, Mexico between 1998 and 2001. He has been in the advisory board of the international journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change since 1991.[12] He is also the founder of Growth Dynamics,[13] a Swiss-based organization specializing in business strategy, strategic forecasting and management consulting.[14]

Publications edit

He has published about one hundred articles in scientific and in business journals, as well as ten books: Predictions, Conquering Uncertainty, An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street (treating the New York Stock Exchange as an ecosystem), Predictions: 10 Years Later, Bestseller Driven, Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker, Decision-Making for a New World, An S-shaped Adventure: "Predictions" 20 Years Later, Fortune Favors the Bold: A Woman’s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century,[15] and Science with Street Value: A Physicist's Wanderings off the Beaten Track.[16] His books have appeared in a number of other languages; Predictions has been translated into German, Japanese, and Greek, and Conquering Uncertainty has been translated into Chinese Long Form, Chinese Short Form, Greek, and Dutch. Fortune Favors the Bold: A Woman’s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century has been translated into Greek and published under the title ΘΕΟΔΟΣΙΑ.

Distinctions edit

Praise for Predictions edit

  • "Interesting, well written, enjoyable, controversial, thought-provoking." - Simon van der Meer, Physicist, Nobel Prize 1984.[17]
  • "A lot of highly selective fun re-invoking much in my own past experiences." - George Wald, professor emeritus of biology at Harvard, Nobel Prize 1967.[17]
  • "You must read this book. It is the most delightful one on forecasting I have encountered in a very long time. Written for the enjoyment of both layperson and professional, it is fascinating and provocative." - Harold Linstone, Editor in Chief; Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 1992.[18]
  • "We have the technology now to forecast many social phenomena ... . I follow the work of Theodore Modis, who nicely sums up the case for utility and believability of predictions." - Kevin Kelly (editor), Executive Editor of WIRED.[19]
  • "A fascinating technique for making forecasts." - THE FUTURIST.[20]
  • "... he (Modis) does cite the relationship of his 'overall' 56-year cycles and evidence on the associated clustering of technological innovations to prior work by Kondratieff and Schumpeter (in my opinion, Modis’ evidence on these topics is more extensive and compelling than that of either of these scholars.)" - Kenneth Land, SCIENCE.[21]
  • "Can a well-known mathematical equation be used to predict a wide range of human activity? Maybe." - Vernon Church, NEWSWEEK.[22]

iPhone/iPad Applications edit

He has created two applications for iPhone/iPad, The S_Curve and Biorhythm_Science. Together with Vasco Almeida they created applications that forecast stock prices like species by treating the stock market as an ecosystem: Stock Fcsts and 2Stock Fcsts[23] for the iPhone and Stocks' Futures and 2Stocks' Future[24] for the iPad.[25]

Partial bibliography edit

  • An S-Shaped Adventure - "Predictions" 20 Years Later, Growth Dynamics, Lugano, Switzerland, November 2014.
  • An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street - Survival of the Fittest Reigns at the Stock Market, Growth Dynamics, Geneva, Switzerland, April 1999.
  • Conquering Uncertainty: Understanding Corporate Cycles and Positioning Your Company to Survive the Changing Environment BusinessWeek Books, McGraw-Hill, New York, June 1998.
  • Predictions - Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon & Schuster, New York, 1992.
  • Predictions: - 10 Years Later, Growth Dynamics, Geneva, Switzerland, October 2000.
  • Bestseller Driven, Growth Dynamics, Lugano, Switzerland, 2005.
  • Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker - How to Use Science-Based Methodologies to See more Clearly further into the Future, Growth Dynamics, Lugano, Switzerland, July 2013.
  • Decision-Making for a New World: Natural Laws of Evolution and Competition as a Road Map to Revolutionary New Management, Campus Verlag-edition MALIK, Frankfurt, July 2018.
  • Fortune Favors the Bold: A Woman’s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century, ibidem Press, Stuttgart, October 2018. Greek edition under the title ΘΕΟΔΟΣΙΑ, Livani Publishing Organizations, Athens, Greece, November 2020.
  • Science with Street Value: A Physicist’s Wanderings off the Beaten Track, ibidem Press, Stuttgart, October 2020.
  • Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, 2002 - an essay about the growth of complexity in the universe.

Personal life edit

Modis is the father of Yorgo Modis, the grandson of Theodoros Modis,[26] and nephew of Georgios Modis.

References edit

  1. ^ Modis, Theodore (2013). "Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth" (PDF). Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 80 (8): 1557. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.010. S2CID 55535180.
  2. ^ Modis, Theodore (1994). "Life Cycles - Forecasting the Rise and Fall of Almost Anything" (PDF). The Futurist. 28 (5): 20.
  3. ^ Modis, Theodore (July 1, 2013). Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker: How to Use Science-Based Methodologies to See more Clearly further into the Future (1 ed.). Lugano, Switzerland: Growth Dynamics. p. 246. ISBN 978-2970021681.
  4. ^ Modis, Theodore (2007). “Strengths and Weaknesses of S-Curves”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 74, (6): 866-872.
  5. ^ Debecker, Alain, and Modis, Theodore (1994). “Determination of the Uncertainties in S-curve Logistic Fits”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 46 (2): 153-173.
  6. ^ Modis, Theodore (2020). “Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update”. Published in Korotayev, Andrey; LePoire, David (Eds.) (January 3, 2020). The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures (1 ed.). Springer. p. 620. ISBN 978-3-030-33730-8. pp 101-104
  7. ^ Modis, Theodore (2012). “Why the Singularity Cannot Happen”. Published in Eden, Amnon H. et al (Eds.) (2012). Singularity Hypothesis (PDF). New York: Springer. p. 311. ISBN 978-3-642-32560-1. pp 311-339.
  8. ^ Modis, Theodore (2006). “The Singularity Myth”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 73 (2): 104-112.
  9. ^ Modis, Theodore (May–June 2003). “The Limits of Complexity and Change”. The Futurist. 37 (3): 26-32.
  10. ^ Modis, Theodore (2002). “Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 69 (4): 377-404.
  11. ^ Modis, Theodore (2022). "Links between entropy, complexity, and the technological singularity". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Volume 176, 2022-3, p. 121457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121457.
  12. ^ "Technological Forecasting and Social Change Editorial Board" – via www.journals.elsevier.com.
  13. ^ "Home". growth-dynamics.com.
  14. ^ http://ch.linkedin.com/pub/theodore-modis/0/222/140/ [self-published source]
  15. ^ Modis, Theodore (2018). Fortune Favors the Bold: A Woman's Odyssey through a Turbulent Century. ibidem Press. ISBN 978-3838211978.
  16. ^ Modis, Theodore (2020). Science with Street Value: A Physicist's Wanderings off the Beaten Track. ibidem Press. ISBN 978-3-8382-1447-4.
  17. ^ a b From the back cover in Modis, Theodore (1992). Predictions. New York: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0-671-75917-5.
  18. ^ Linstone, Harold (1992). "Editor-in-chief". Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 42 (3): 317–319. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(92)90040-Z.
  19. ^ Kelly, Kevin (1994). Out of Control. New York: Addison Wesley. pp. 436–437. ISBN 0-201-48340-8.
  20. ^ "A fascinating technique for making forecasts". The Futurist. November–December 1992.
  21. ^ Land, Kenneth C. (1993). "S-Curves Everywhere". Science. 259 (26 February 1993): 1349–50. doi:10.1126/science.259.5099.1349. PMID 17732257.
  22. ^ Church, Vernon. "A New Kind of Crystal Ball". Newsweek (26 October 1992).
  23. ^ "iPhone Application". www.growth-dynamics.com.
  24. ^ "iPad Application". www.growth-dynamics.com.
  25. ^ "Stocks' Futures by Theodore Modis & Vasco Almeida" – via www.youtube.com.
  26. ^ "The funeral of the Theodoros Modi in the Monastir(FYROM) IN 1904". YouTube.

External links edit

  • Growth Dynamics
  • List of books by Theodore Modis
  • List of articles by Theodore Modis
  • iPad application

January 01, 1970
theodore, modis, confused, with, theodoros, modis, born, august, 1943, strategic, business, analyst, futurist, physicist, international, consultant, specializes, applying, fundamental, scientific, concepts, predicting, social, phenomena, particular, uses, natu. Not to be confused with Theodoros Modis Theodore Modis born August 11 1943 is a strategic business analyst futurist physicist and international consultant He specializes in applying fundamental scientific concepts to predicting social phenomena In particular he uses the law of natural growth in competition as expressed by the logistic function or S curve to forecast markets product sales primary energy substitutions the diffusion of technologies and generally any process that grows in competition 1 2 3 4 5 He is a vehement critic of the concept of the Technological Singularity 6 7 8 9 10 He has suggested a simple mathematical relationship between Entropy and Complexity as the latter being the time derivative of the former 11 Theodore ModisModis in 2020Born 1943 08 11 August 11 1943 age 80 GreeceNationalityGreek SwissAlma materAnatolia CollegeColumbia UniversityKnown forExpertise in S CurveCriticism of the Technological SingularityScientific careerFieldsPhysics forecasting business consultingInstitutionsCERNUniversity of GenevaDigital Equipment CorporationGrowth DynamicsAcademic advisorsJack Steinberger He currently lives in Lugano Switzerland Contents 1 Education 2 Career 3 Publications 4 Distinctions 5 Praise for Predictions 6 iPhone iPad Applications 7 Partial bibliography 8 Personal life 9 References 10 External linksEducation editHe went to Columbia University New York where he received a master s degree in Electrical Engineering and a Ph D in High Energy Physics sponsor J Steinberger His secondary education was in Greece at Anatolia College in Thessaloniki Greece Career editModis carried out research in particle physics at Brookhaven National Laboratories and CERN before moving to work at Digital Equipment Corporation for more than a decade as the head of a management science consultants group He has on occasion taught at Columbia University the University of Geneva Webster University the European business schools INSEAD and IMD and was a professor at DUXX Graduate School of Business Leadership in Monterrey Mexico between 1998 and 2001 He has been in the advisory board of the international journal Technological Forecasting amp Social Change since 1991 12 He is also the founder of Growth Dynamics 13 a Swiss based organization specializing in business strategy strategic forecasting and management consulting 14 Publications editHe has published about one hundred articles in scientific and in business journals as well as ten books Predictions Conquering Uncertainty An S Shaped Trail to Wall Street treating the New York Stock Exchange as an ecosystem Predictions 10 Years Later Bestseller Driven Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker Decision Making for a New World An S shaped Adventure Predictions 20 Years Later Fortune Favors the Bold A Woman s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century 15 and Science with Street Value A Physicist s Wanderings off the Beaten Track 16 His books have appeared in a number of other languages Predictions has been translated into German Japanese and Greek and Conquering Uncertainty has been translated into Chinese Long Form Chinese Short Form Greek and Dutch Fortune Favors the Bold A Woman s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century has been translated into Greek and published under the title 8EODOSIA Distinctions edit2017 Certificate of Outstanding Contribution in Reviewing by the international journal Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 1997 Outstanding Paper of the Year Award by the international journal Technological Forecasting amp Social Change Dean s List during undergraduate at Columbia University First in class during High School at Anatolia CollegePraise for Predictions edit Interesting well written enjoyable controversial thought provoking Simon van der Meer Physicist Nobel Prize 1984 17 A lot of highly selective fun re invoking much in my own past experiences George Wald professor emeritus of biology at Harvard Nobel Prize 1967 17 You must read this book It is the most delightful one on forecasting I have encountered in a very long time Written for the enjoyment of both layperson and professional it is fascinating and provocative Harold Linstone Editor in Chief Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 1992 18 We have the technology now to forecast many social phenomena I follow the work of Theodore Modis who nicely sums up the case for utility and believability of predictions Kevin Kelly editor Executive Editor of WIRED 19 A fascinating technique for making forecasts THE FUTURIST 20 he Modis does cite the relationship of his overall 56 year cycles and evidence on the associated clustering of technological innovations to prior work by Kondratieff and Schumpeter in my opinion Modis evidence on these topics is more extensive and compelling than that of either of these scholars Kenneth Land SCIENCE 21 Can a well known mathematical equation be used to predict a wide range of human activity Maybe Vernon Church NEWSWEEK 22 iPhone iPad Applications editHe has created two applications for iPhone iPad The S Curve and Biorhythm Science Together with Vasco Almeida they created applications that forecast stock prices like species by treating the stock market as an ecosystem Stock Fcsts and 2Stock Fcsts 23 for the iPhone and Stocks Futures and 2Stocks Future 24 for the iPad 25 Partial bibliography editAn S Shaped Adventure Predictions 20 Years Later Growth Dynamics Lugano Switzerland November 2014 An S Shaped Trail to Wall Street Survival of the Fittest Reigns at the Stock Market Growth Dynamics Geneva Switzerland April 1999 Conquering Uncertainty Understanding Corporate Cycles and Positioning Your Company to Survive the Changing Environment BusinessWeek Books McGraw Hill New York June 1998 Predictions Society s Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future Simon amp Schuster New York 1992 Predictions 10 Years Later Growth Dynamics Geneva Switzerland October 2000 Bestseller Driven Growth Dynamics Lugano Switzerland 2005 Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker How to Use Science Based Methodologies to See more Clearly further into the Future Growth Dynamics Lugano Switzerland July 2013 Decision Making for a New World Natural Laws of Evolution and Competition as a Road Map to Revolutionary New Management Campus Verlag edition MALIK Frankfurt July 2018 Fortune Favors the Bold A Woman s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century ibidem Press Stuttgart October 2018 Greek edition under the title 8EODOSIA Livani Publishing Organizations Athens Greece November 2020 Science with Street Value A Physicist s Wanderings off the Beaten Track ibidem Press Stuttgart October 2020 Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 69 No 4 2002 an essay about the growth of complexity in the universe Personal life editModis is the father of Yorgo Modis the grandson of Theodoros Modis 26 and nephew of Georgios Modis References edit Modis Theodore 2013 Long Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth PDF Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 80 8 1557 doi 10 1016 j techfore 2013 02 010 S2CID 55535180 Modis Theodore 1994 Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of Almost Anything PDF The Futurist 28 5 20 Modis Theodore July 1 2013 Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker How to Use Science Based Methodologies to See more Clearly further into the Future 1 ed Lugano Switzerland Growth Dynamics p 246 ISBN 978 2970021681 Modis Theodore 2007 Strengths and Weaknesses of S Curves Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 74 6 866 872 Debecker Alain and Modis Theodore 1994 Determination of the Uncertainties in S curve Logistic Fits Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 46 2 153 173 Modis Theodore 2020 Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change An Update Published in Korotayev Andrey LePoire David Eds January 3 2020 The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures 1 ed Springer p 620 ISBN 978 3 030 33730 8 pp 101 104 Modis Theodore 2012 Why the Singularity Cannot Happen Published in Eden Amnon H et al Eds 2012 Singularity Hypothesis PDF New York Springer p 311 ISBN 978 3 642 32560 1 pp 311 339 Modis Theodore 2006 The Singularity Myth Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 73 2 104 112 Modis Theodore May June 2003 The Limits of Complexity and Change The Futurist 37 3 26 32 Modis Theodore 2002 Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 69 4 377 404 Modis Theodore 2022 Links between entropy complexity and the technological singularity Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 176 2022 3 p 121457 https doi org 10 1016 j techfore 2021 121457 Technological Forecasting and Social Change Editorial Board via www journals elsevier com Home growth dynamics com http ch linkedin com pub theodore modis 0 222 140 self published source Modis Theodore 2018 Fortune Favors the Bold A Woman s Odyssey through a Turbulent Century ibidem Press ISBN 978 3838211978 Modis Theodore 2020 Science with Street Value A Physicist s Wanderings off the Beaten Track ibidem Press ISBN 978 3 8382 1447 4 a b From the back cover in Modis Theodore 1992 Predictions New York Simon amp Schuster ISBN 0 671 75917 5 Linstone Harold 1992 Editor in chief Technological Forecasting amp Social Change 42 3 317 319 doi 10 1016 0040 1625 92 90040 Z Kelly Kevin 1994 Out of Control New York Addison Wesley pp 436 437 ISBN 0 201 48340 8 A fascinating technique for making forecasts The Futurist November December 1992 Land Kenneth C 1993 S Curves Everywhere Science 259 26 February 1993 1349 50 doi 10 1126 science 259 5099 1349 PMID 17732257 Church Vernon A New Kind of Crystal Ball Newsweek 26 October 1992 iPhone Application www growth dynamics com iPad Application www growth dynamics com Stocks Futures by Theodore Modis amp Vasco Almeida via www youtube com The funeral of the Theodoros Modi in the Monastir FYROM IN 1904 YouTube External links editGrowth Dynamics List of books by Theodore Modis List of articles by Theodore Modis iPad application Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Theodore Modis amp oldid 1148669841, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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