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National Bureau of Economic Research

March 24, 2023

"NBER" redirects here. For the railroad, see Nittany and Bald Eagle Railroad.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community".[3] The NBER is known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

National Bureau of Economic Research
The building in Cambridge, Massachusetts that contains the NBER main offices.[1]
AbbreviationNBER
Founded1920; 103 years ago (1920)
FounderWesley Clair Mitchell
TypeNonprofit organization
Location
LeaderJames M. Poterba
Revenue (2015)
$33,263,297[2]
Expenses (2015)$33,988,867[2]
Websitenber.org

Many chairpersons of the Council of Economic Advisers were previously NBER Research Associates, including the former NBER president and Harvard Professor, Martin Feldstein. The NBER's president and CEO is James M. Poterba of MIT.

History

The NBER was founded in 1920. Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Clair Mitchell. He was succeeded by Malcolm C. Rorty in 1922.[citation needed]

The Russian American economist Simon Kuznets, a student of Mitchell, was working at the NBER when the U.S. government recruited him to oversee the production of the first official estimates of national income, published in 1934.[citation needed]

In the early 1940s, Kuznets's work on national income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity.[4] The NBER is currently located in Cambridge, Massachusetts with a branch office in New York City.[citation needed]

Research

The NBER's research activities are mostly identified by 20 research programs on different subjects and 14 working groups. The research programs are: Aging, Asset Pricing, Behavioral/Macro, Capital Markets and the Economy, Children, Corporate Finance, Development of the American Economy, Economics of Education, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Energy and the Environment, Health Care, Health Economics, Industrial Organization, International Finance and Macroeconomics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies, Law and Economics, Monetary Economics, Political Economy, Productivity, and Public Economics.[5] From this research come the NBER's Working Papers.[citation needed]

Conferences

The NBER convenes over 120 meetings each year at which researchers share and discuss their latest findings and launch new projects. The Summer Institute, a collection of nearly 50 smaller meetings, is held annually in July.[6]

Notable members

Winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences

(In descending chronological order and by last name)

Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairs

(In descending chronological order)

Other notable members

(In alphabetical order by last name)

Funding

According to the NBER, they are funded by grants from government agencies, private foundations, by corporate and individual contributions, and by income from the NBER's investment portfolio. The largest donators currently are the National Institute of Health, the National Science Foundation, the Social Security Administration, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.[7] In 2015, NBER's annual revenue was about $33 million.[citation needed]

Policy impact

In a 2010 report by the University of Pennsylvania, the NBER was ranked as the second most influential domestic economic policy think tank (the first was the Brookings Institution).[8]

Recession markers

The NBER is also known for its start and end dates of US recessions. The NBER is claimed by some to serve the role as an arbiter of whether the U.S. is in a recession or not.[9] The origins of this role can be traced to the 1960s when the Commerce Department began publishing a digest that relied on NBER's analysis of the business cycle.[9] The recession markers are made by the Business Cycle Dating Committee, whose eight members are selected by the president of the NBER. The eight members tend to be highly distinguished economists.[9] The committee's meetings are held on the third floor of NBER's headquarters.[9] The meetings are neither publicized nor on a fixed schedule.[9] The board's decisions are not always unanimous, but the disagreements within the committee tend not to be about the presence of a recession; rather they are about the specific start and end points of the recession.[9]

The NBER uses a broader definition of a recession than commonly appears in the media. A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".[10] Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee. Typically, these dates correspond to peaks and troughs in real GDP, although not always so.[11]

The NBER prefers this method for a variety of reasons. First, they feel by measuring a wide range of economic factors, rather than just GDP, a more accurate assessment of the health of an economy can be gained. For instance, the NBER considers not only the product-side estimates like GDP, but also income-side estimates such as the gross domestic income (GDI). Second, since the NBER wishes to measure the duration of economic expansion and recession at a fine grain, they place emphasis on monthly—rather than quarterly—economic indicators. Finally, by using a looser definition, they can take into account the depth of decline in economic activity. For example, the NBER may declare not a recession simply because of two quarters of very slight negative growth, but rather an economic stagnation.[12] However, they do not precisely define what is meant by "a significant decline", but rather determine if one has existed on a case by case basis after examining their catalogued factors which have no defined grade scale or weighting factors. The subjectivity of the determination has led to criticism and accusations committee members can "play politics" in their determinations.[13]

Though not listed by the NBER, another factor in favor of this alternate definition is that a long-term economic contraction may not always have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, as was the case in the recession following the bursting of the dot-com bubble.[12] For example, a repeated sequence of quarters with significant negative growth followed by a quarter of no or slight positive growth would not meet the traditional definition of a recession, even though the nation would be undergoing continuous economic decline.[citation needed]

Announcement of end of 2007–2009 recession

In September 2010, after a conference call with its Business Cycle Dating Committee, the NBER declared that the Great Recession in the United States had officially ended in 2009 and lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.[14][15] In response, a number of newspapers wrote that the majority of Americans did not believe the recession was over, mainly because they were still struggling and because the country still faced high unemployment.[16][17][18] However, the NBER release had noted that "In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle."[19]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Contact the NBER". National Bureau of Economic Research. 2022. Retrieved January 17, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "National Bureau of Economic Research Inc" (PDF). Foundation Center. Retrieved August 22, 2018.
  3. ^ "History of the NBER". The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  4. ^ Carson, Carol (1975). "The History of the United States National Income and Product Accounts: The Development of an Analytical Tool". Review of Income & Wealth. 21 (2): 153–181. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1975.tb00687.x.
  5. ^ "Major NBER Programs". The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  6. ^ "NBER Conferences". NBER Conferences. Retrieved September 14, 2021.
  7. ^ "Support & Funding".
  8. ^ McGann, James G. (2010). "The global "go-to think tanks" 2011. The leading public policy research organizations in the world". TTCSP Global Go to Think Tank Index Reports. doi:10.4324/9780203838273. ISBN 9780203838273. Retrieved November 24, 2019.
  9. ^ a b c d e f "The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved July 28, 2022.
  10. ^ "National slowdown dims New England economic outlook". The Boston Globe. May 30, 2008.
  11. ^ "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure". The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  12. ^ a b "The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions". The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  13. ^ Maggs, John (April 19, 2010). . National Journal. Archived from the original on April 23, 2010.
  14. ^ "Recession 'over,' but the mood is glum". Buffalo News. September 27, 2010.
  15. ^ "Economist who called recession's end sees recovery". Investment News. September 28, 2010.
  16. ^ "CNN Poll: Nearly three-fourths say recession not over". CNN. September 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Meaning of word 'recession' varies". Delmarva News. September 28, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  18. ^ The Daily Republic. September 28, 2010. Archived from the original on May 17, 2013.
  19. ^ "Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research". National Bureau of Economic Research. September 20, 2010.

External links

  • Official website

March 24, 2023
national, bureau, economic, research, nber, redirects, here, railroad, nittany, bald, eagle, railroad, nber, american, private, nonprofit, research, organization, committed, undertaking, disseminating, unbiased, economic, research, among, public, policymakers,. NBER redirects here For the railroad see Nittany and Bald Eagle Railroad The National Bureau of Economic Research NBER is an American private nonprofit research organization committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers business professionals and the academic community 3 The NBER is known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States National Bureau of Economic ResearchThe building in Cambridge Massachusetts that contains the NBER main offices 1 AbbreviationNBERFounded1920 103 years ago 1920 FounderWesley Clair MitchellTypeNonprofit organizationLocationCambridge Massachusetts42 22 11 N 71 06 46 W 42 3697 N 71 1127 W 42 3697 71 1127 Coordinates 42 22 11 N 71 06 46 W 42 3697 N 71 1127 W 42 3697 71 1127LeaderJames M PoterbaRevenue 2015 33 263 297 2 Expenses 2015 33 988 867 2 Websitenber wbr orgMany chairpersons of the Council of Economic Advisers were previously NBER Research Associates including the former NBER president and Harvard Professor Martin Feldstein The NBER s president and CEO is James M Poterba of MIT Contents 1 History 2 Research 3 Conferences 4 Notable members 4 1 Winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 4 2 Council of Economic Advisers CEA Chairs 4 3 Other notable members 5 Funding 6 Policy impact 7 Recession markers 8 Announcement of end of 2007 2009 recession 9 See also 10 References 11 External linksHistory EditThe NBER was founded in 1920 Its first staff economist director of research and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Clair Mitchell He was succeeded by Malcolm C Rorty in 1922 citation needed The Russian American economist Simon Kuznets a student of Mitchell was working at the NBER when the U S government recruited him to oversee the production of the first official estimates of national income published in 1934 citation needed In the early 1940s Kuznets s work on national income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity 4 The NBER is currently located in Cambridge Massachusetts with a branch office in New York City citation needed Research EditThe NBER s research activities are mostly identified by 20 research programs on different subjects and 14 working groups The research programs are Aging Asset Pricing Behavioral Macro Capital Markets and the Economy Children Corporate Finance Development of the American Economy Economics of Education Economic Fluctuations and Growth Energy and the Environment Health Care Health Economics Industrial Organization International Finance and Macroeconomics International Trade and Investment Labor Studies Law and Economics Monetary Economics Political Economy Productivity and Public Economics 5 From this research come the NBER s Working Papers citation needed Conferences EditThe NBER convenes over 120 meetings each year at which researchers share and discuss their latest findings and launch new projects The Summer Institute a collection of nearly 50 smaller meetings is held annually in July 6 Notable members EditWinners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Edit In descending chronological order and by last name Ben Bernanke 2022 Joshua Angrist 2021 David Card 2021 Guido Imbens 2021 Abhijit Banerjee 2019 Esther Duflo 2019 Michael Kremer 2019 William Nordhaus 2018 Paul Romer 2018 Richard Thaler 2017 Oliver Hart 2016 Bengt Holmstrom 2016 Angus Deaton 2015 Lars Peter Hansen 2013 Robert J Shiller 2013 Alvin E Roth 2012 Thomas J Sargent 2011 Christopher A Sims 2011 Peter Diamond 2010 Dale T Mortensen 2010 Paul Krugman 2008 Finn E Kydland 2004 Edward C Prescott 2004 Robert F Engle 2003 George Akerlof 2001 Joseph Stiglitz 2001 James Heckman 2000 Daniel McFadden 2000 Robert C Merton 1997 Myron Scholes 1997 Robert Lucas Jr 1995 Robert Fogel 1993 Gary Becker 1992 George Stigler 1982 Theodore Schultz 1979 Milton Friedman 1976 Wassily Leontief 1973 Simon Kuznets 1971 Council of Economic Advisers CEA Chairs Edit In descending chronological order Cecilia Rouse 2021 present Alan Krueger 2011 2013 Austan Goolsbee 2010 2011 Christina Romer 2009 2010 Edward Lazear 2006 2009 Ben Bernanke 2005 2006 Harvey S Rosen 2005 Greg Mankiw 2003 2005 Glenn Hubbard 2001 2003 Janet Yellen 1997 1999 Joseph Stiglitz 1995 1997 Michael Boskin 1989 1993 Martin Feldstein 1982 1984 Arthur F Burns 1953 1956 Other notable members Edit In alphabetical order by last name Daron Acemoglu Alberto Alesina Robert Barro Aaron Edlin John Lipsky Francis Longstaff Alan Marcus James A Robinson Richard N Rosett Anna Schwartz Eduardo Schwartz Andrei Shleifer Richard ZeckhauserFunding EditAccording to the NBER they are funded by grants from government agencies private foundations by corporate and individual contributions and by income from the NBER s investment portfolio The largest donators currently are the National Institute of Health the National Science Foundation the Social Security Administration and the Alfred P Sloan Foundation 7 In 2015 NBER s annual revenue was about 33 million citation needed Policy impact EditIn a 2010 report by the University of Pennsylvania the NBER was ranked as the second most influential domestic economic policy think tank the first was the Brookings Institution 8 Recession markers EditThe NBER is also known for its start and end dates of US recessions The NBER is claimed by some to serve the role as an arbiter of whether the U S is in a recession or not 9 The origins of this role can be traced to the 1960s when the Commerce Department began publishing a digest that relied on NBER s analysis of the business cycle 9 The recession markers are made by the Business Cycle Dating Committee whose eight members are selected by the president of the NBER The eight members tend to be highly distinguished economists 9 The committee s meetings are held on the third floor of NBER s headquarters 9 The meetings are neither publicized nor on a fixed schedule 9 The board s decisions are not always unanimous but the disagreements within the committee tend not to be about the presence of a recession rather they are about the specific start and end points of the recession 9 The NBER uses a broader definition of a recession than commonly appears in the media A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product GDP In contrast the NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months normally visible in real GDP real income employment industrial production and wholesale retail sales 10 Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee Typically these dates correspond to peaks and troughs in real GDP although not always so 11 The NBER prefers this method for a variety of reasons First they feel by measuring a wide range of economic factors rather than just GDP a more accurate assessment of the health of an economy can be gained For instance the NBER considers not only the product side estimates like GDP but also income side estimates such as the gross domestic income GDI Second since the NBER wishes to measure the duration of economic expansion and recession at a fine grain they place emphasis on monthly rather than quarterly economic indicators Finally by using a looser definition they can take into account the depth of decline in economic activity For example the NBER may declare not a recession simply because of two quarters of very slight negative growth but rather an economic stagnation 12 However they do not precisely define what is meant by a significant decline but rather determine if one has existed on a case by case basis after examining their catalogued factors which have no defined grade scale or weighting factors The subjectivity of the determination has led to criticism and accusations committee members can play politics in their determinations 13 Though not listed by the NBER another factor in favor of this alternate definition is that a long term economic contraction may not always have two consecutive quarters of negative growth as was the case in the recession following the bursting of the dot com bubble 12 For example a repeated sequence of quarters with significant negative growth followed by a quarter of no or slight positive growth would not meet the traditional definition of a recession even though the nation would be undergoing continuous economic decline citation needed Announcement of end of 2007 2009 recession EditIn September 2010 after a conference call with its Business Cycle Dating Committee the NBER declared that the Great Recession in the United States had officially ended in 2009 and lasted from December 2007 to June 2009 14 15 In response a number of newspapers wrote that the majority of Americans did not believe the recession was over mainly because they were still struggling and because the country still faced high unemployment 16 17 18 However the NBER release had noted that In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009 the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity Rather the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months normally visible in real GDP real income employment industrial production and wholesale retail sales The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle 19 See also EditEconomic Cycle Research InstituteReferences Edit Contact the NBER National Bureau of Economic Research 2022 Retrieved January 17 2022 a b National Bureau of Economic Research Inc PDF Foundation Center Retrieved August 22 2018 History of the NBER The National Bureau of Economic Research Carson Carol 1975 The History of the United States National Income and Product Accounts The Development of an Analytical Tool Review of Income amp Wealth 21 2 153 181 doi 10 1111 j 1475 4991 1975 tb00687 x Major NBER Programs The National Bureau of Economic Research NBER Conferences NBER Conferences Retrieved September 14 2021 Support amp Funding McGann James G 2010 The global go to think tanks 2011 The leading public policy research organizations in the world TTCSP Global Go to Think Tank Index Reports doi 10 4324 9780203838273 ISBN 9780203838273 Retrieved November 24 2019 a b c d e f The 8 economists who decide if the U S is in a recession Washington Post ISSN 0190 8286 Retrieved July 28 2022 National slowdown dims New England economic outlook The Boston Globe May 30 2008 The NBER s Recession Dating Procedure The National Bureau of Economic Research a b The NBER s Business Cycle Dating Procedure Frequently Asked Questions The National Bureau of Economic Research Maggs John April 19 2010 Who Decides When The Recession Ends National Journal Archived from the original on April 23 2010 Recession over but the mood is glum Buffalo News September 27 2010 Economist who called recession s end sees recovery Investment News September 28 2010 CNN Poll Nearly three fourths say recession not over CNN September 26 2010 Meaning of word recession varies Delmarva News September 28 2010 permanent dead link Editorial Too early to say recession has run its course in U S The Daily Republic September 28 2010 Archived from the original on May 17 2013 Business Cycle Dating Committee National Bureau of Economic Research National Bureau of Economic Research September 20 2010 External links EditOfficial website Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title National Bureau of Economic Research amp oldid 1143053186, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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