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List of deadliest Storm Prediction Center days by outlook risk level

October 21, 2023

The Storm Prediction Center issues daily outlooks denoting the risk for severe weather and wildfires for specific regions in the United States. For severe weather, which includes the risk for thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and straight-line winds, there are five risk levels indicating the probability for these hazards: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high. For wildfires, there are three risk levels: elevated, critical, and extremely critical.[1]

Although outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center indicate the severity of a convective or wildfire threat, they do not always come to fruition. There have been many instances where a high risk outlook did not verify and only a few tornadoes occurred.[2] Conversely, there have been days where a lower risk level was issued and a major tornado outbreak occurred. Some of the deadliest severe weather and wildfire days in recent history did not have a high risk or extremely critical outlook issued. For example, the 2011 Joplin tornado, which killed 158 people occurred on a moderate risk day,[3] as did the tornado outbreak of December 10–11, 2021, which killed 89 people.[4] Furthermore, both the October 2017 Northern California wildfires, which killed 44 people,[5] and the 2023 Hawaii wildfires, which killed 99 people occurred under a critical fire weather outlook.[6]

The following are lists of the deadliest days in which various risk levels were issued for severe weather and wildfires.

Deadliest severe weather outlooks Edit

Note: Fatality totals include deaths that took place in regions outside of the delineated outlook zones. Furthermore, only direct tornadic fatalities that occurred on the day that the outlook was issued for are included.

Slight risk days Edit

Enhanced risk days Edit

Note: Enhanced risks have only been issued since October 22, 2014.

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
23 Tornado outbreak of March 3[17]   Southeastern U.S. March 3, 2019
13 Tornado outbreak of December 26–28[18]   Central U.S. December 26, 2015
10 Easter tornado outbreak[19]   Southeastern U.S. April 13, 2020
8 Tornado outbreak of January 12[20]   Southeastern U.S. January 12, 2023
7 Tornado outbreak of March 5–7[21]   Midwestern U.S. March 5, 2022
6 Tornado outbreak of January 10–11[22]   Southeastern U.S. January 11, 2020
Tornado outbreak of April 22–23[23]   Central U.S. April 22, 2020
5 Tornado outbreak of December 23–24[24]   Southeastern U.S. December 23, 2014
Tornado outbreak of April 4–5[25]   Ohio River Valley April 5, 2023
4 Tornado outbreak of April 28 – May 1[26]   Central U.S. April 29, 2017
Tornado outbreak sequence of June 20–26[27]   Central U.S. June 21, 2023

Moderate risk days Edit

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
159 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26[3]   Midwestern U.S. May 22, 2011
76 United States–Canada tornado outbreak[28]   Northeastern U.S., Great Lakes region May 31, 1985
72 Tornado outbreak of December 10–11[4]   Middle Mississippi River Valley December 10, 2021
42 Kissimmee tornado outbreak[29]   Southeastern U.S. February 22, 1998
29 Plainfield tornado[30]   Midwestern U.S., Great Lakes region August 28, 1990
28 Central Texas tornado outbreak[31]   Central U.S. May 27, 1997
27 March 1997 tornado outbreak[32]   Central U.S. March 1, 1997
Tornado outbreak of April 2[33]   Midwestern U.S. April 2, 2006
24 Tornado outbreak of May 18–21[34]   Central U.S. May 20, 2013
22 Easter tornado outbreak[35]   Southeastern U.S. April 12, 2020
Tornado outbreak of March 24–27[36]   Central U.S. March 24, 2023

High risk days Edit

Main article: List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days

Deadliest fire weather outlooks Edit

Note: Fatality totals include deaths that took place in regions outside of the delineated outlook zones. Furthermore, only direct wildfire fatalities that occurred on the day that the outlook was issued for are included.

Critical days Edit

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
99 2023 Hawaii wildfires[6]   Hawaii August 8, 2023
31 October 2017 Northern California wildfires[5]   Western U.S. October 8, 2017
19 Yarnell Hill Fire[48]   Southwestern U.S. June 30, 2013
16 North Complex Fire[49]   Northwestern and Southwestern U.S. September 9, 2020
13 October 2017 Northern California wildfires[50]   Southwestern U.S. October 9, 2017
12 Cedar Fire[51]   Southwestern U.S. October 25, 2003

Extremely critical days Edit

Main article: List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical days
Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
85 Camp Fire[52]   Southwestern U.S. November 8, 2018
12 Texas–Oklahoma wildfires[53]   Great Plains region March 12, 2006
10[54] September 2020 Labor Day wildfires[55]   Northwestern U.S. September 8, 2020
7 March 2017 Great Plains wildfires[56]   Great Plains region March 6, 2017
4 April 2009 Texas wildfires[57]   Great Plains region April 9, 2009

See also Edit

References Edit

  1. ^ Chris Hayes Novy (March 25, 2010). "SPC and its Products: Convective Outlooks". Storm Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
  2. ^ Henson, Bob. "What Happened—and Didn't Happen—with the May 20–21 High-Risk Outbreak". Weather Underground. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
  3. ^ a b Storm Prediction Center May 22, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  4. ^ a b Storm Prediction Center December 10, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  5. ^ a b Storm Prediction Center October 8, 2017 0657 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  6. ^ a b NWS Honolulu (August 7, 2023). "Red Flag Warning". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Iowa State University. from the original on August 10, 2023. Retrieved August 10, 2023.
  7. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 22, 1987". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  8. ^ Storm Prediction Center November 6, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  9. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 3, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  10. ^ Storm Prediction Center February 2, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  11. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 11, 2021 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  12. ^ Storm Prediction Center February 6, 2008 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  13. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 31, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  14. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 20, 2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  15. ^ Storm Prediction Center November 16, 2006 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  16. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 15, 1984 1918 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  17. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 3, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  18. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 26, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  19. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 13, 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  20. ^ Storm Prediction Center January 12, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  21. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 5, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  22. ^ Storm Prediction Center January 11, 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  23. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 22, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  24. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 23, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  25. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 5, 2023 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  26. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 29, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  27. ^ Storm Prediction Center June 21, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  28. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 31, 1985". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  29. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook February 22, 1998". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  30. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook August 28, 1990". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  31. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 27, 1997". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  32. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook March 1, 1997". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  33. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 2, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  34. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 20, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  35. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 12, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  36. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 24, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  37. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 27, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  38. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook March 28, 1984". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  39. ^ Storm Prediction Center February 5, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  40. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 3, 1999". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  41. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 2, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  42. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook March 27, 1994". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  43. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 4, 2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  44. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook April 8, 1998". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  45. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook November 10, 2002". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  46. ^ "Notable Weather Events of 2022". National Weather Service. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  47. ^ Weiss, Steven; Wilson, Larry; Edwards, Roger (December 22, 2020). "In Memoriam: Robert H. Johns 1942 – 2020". National Weather Association. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  48. ^ Storm Prediction Center June 30, 2013 0815 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  49. ^ Storm Prediction Center September 9, 2020 1658 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  50. ^ Storm Prediction Center October 9, 2017 0621 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  51. ^ Storm Prediction Center October 25, 2003 0941 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  52. ^ Storm Prediction Center November 8, 2018 1200 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  53. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 12, 2006 0950 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  54. ^ Mass, Clifford; Ovens, David; Conrick, Robert; Saltenberger, John (2021). "The September 2020 Wildfires over the Pacific Northwest". Weather and Forecasting. American Meteorological Society. 36 (5): 1843–1865. Bibcode:2021WtFor..36.1843M. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-21-0028.1. S2CID 238699028. Retrieved January 1, 2023.
  55. ^ Storm Prediction Center September 8, 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  56. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 6, 2017 0558 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  57. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 9, 2009 0856 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

October 21, 2023
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The Storm Prediction Center issues daily outlooks denoting the risk for severe weather and wildfires for specific regions in the United States For severe weather which includes the risk for thunderstorms tornadoes hail and straight line winds there are five risk levels indicating the probability for these hazards marginal slight enhanced moderate and high For wildfires there are three risk levels elevated critical and extremely critical 1 Although outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center indicate the severity of a convective or wildfire threat they do not always come to fruition There have been many instances where a high risk outlook did not verify and only a few tornadoes occurred 2 Conversely there have been days where a lower risk level was issued and a major tornado outbreak occurred Some of the deadliest severe weather and wildfire days in recent history did not have a high risk or extremely critical outlook issued For example the 2011 Joplin tornado which killed 158 people occurred on a moderate risk day 3 as did the tornado outbreak of December 10 11 2021 which killed 89 people 4 Furthermore both the October 2017 Northern California wildfires which killed 44 people 5 and the 2023 Hawaii wildfires which killed 99 people occurred under a critical fire weather outlook 6 The following are lists of the deadliest days in which various risk levels were issued for severe weather and wildfires Contents 1 Deadliest severe weather outlooks 1 1 Slight risk days 1 2 Enhanced risk days 1 3 Moderate risk days 1 4 High risk days 2 Deadliest fire weather outlooks 2 1 Critical days 2 2 Extremely critical days 3 See also 4 ReferencesDeadliest severe weather outlooks EditNote Fatality totals include deaths that took place in regions outside of the delineated outlook zones Furthermore only direct tornadic fatalities that occurred on the day that the outlook was issued for are included Slight risk days Edit Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date30 Saragosa tornado 7 nbsp Central and Midwestern U S May 22 198724 Evansville tornado outbreak 8 nbsp Midwestern U S November 6 2005Tornado outbreak of March 2 3 9 nbsp Middle Mississippi River Valley March 3 202021 Groundhog Day tornado outbreak 10 nbsp Southeastern U S February 2 200717 Tornado outbreak of December 10 11 11 nbsp Eastern U S December 11 20219 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak 12 nbsp Eastern U S February 6 2008New Year s Eve tornado outbreak 13 nbsp Mississippi River Valley December 31 20108 Tornado outbreak of April 20 14 nbsp Midwestern U S April 20 2004Tornado outbreak of November 14 16 15 nbsp Southeastern U S November 16 20067 Tornado outbreak of March 15 16 nbsp Midwestern U S March 15 1984Enhanced risk days Edit Note Enhanced risks have only been issued since October 22 2014 Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date23 Tornado outbreak of March 3 17 nbsp Southeastern U S March 3 201913 Tornado outbreak of December 26 28 18 nbsp Central U S December 26 201510 Easter tornado outbreak 19 nbsp Southeastern U S April 13 20208 Tornado outbreak of January 12 20 nbsp Southeastern U S January 12 20237 Tornado outbreak of March 5 7 21 nbsp Midwestern U S March 5 20226 Tornado outbreak of January 10 11 22 nbsp Southeastern U S January 11 2020Tornado outbreak of April 22 23 23 nbsp Central U S April 22 20205 Tornado outbreak of December 23 24 24 nbsp Southeastern U S December 23 2014Tornado outbreak of April 4 5 25 nbsp Ohio River Valley April 5 20234 Tornado outbreak of April 28 May 1 26 nbsp Central U S April 29 2017Tornado outbreak sequence of June 20 26 27 nbsp Central U S June 21 2023Moderate risk days Edit Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date159 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21 26 3 nbsp Midwestern U S May 22 201176 United States Canada tornado outbreak 28 nbsp Northeastern U S Great Lakes region May 31 198572 Tornado outbreak of December 10 11 4 nbsp Middle Mississippi River Valley December 10 202142 Kissimmee tornado outbreak 29 nbsp Southeastern U S February 22 199829 Plainfield tornado 30 nbsp Midwestern U S Great Lakes region August 28 199028 Central Texas tornado outbreak 31 nbsp Central U S May 27 199727 March 1997 tornado outbreak 32 nbsp Central U S March 1 1997Tornado outbreak of April 2 33 nbsp Midwestern U S April 2 200624 Tornado outbreak of May 18 21 34 nbsp Central U S May 20 201322 Easter tornado outbreak 35 nbsp Southeastern U S April 12 2020Tornado outbreak of March 24 27 36 nbsp Central U S March 24 2023High risk days Edit Main article List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date316 Super Outbreak 37 nbsp Southeastern U S April 27 201157 Carolinas tornado outbreak 38 nbsp Southeastern U S March 28 198448 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak 39 nbsp Middle Mississippi River Valley February 5 200846 Oklahoma tornado outbreak 40 nbsp Central U S May 3 199941 Tornado outbreak of March 2 3 41 nbsp Ohio River Valley March 2 201240 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak 42 nbsp Southeastern U S March 27 199438 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003 43 nbsp Central U S May 4 200335 Tornado outbreak of April 6 9 44 nbsp Southeastern U S April 8 199834 Tornado outbreak of November 9 11 45 nbsp Southeastern U S Ohio River Valley November 10 200227 Tornado outbreak of April 2 3 46 47 nbsp Central and Midwestern U S April 2 1982Deadliest fire weather outlooks EditNote Fatality totals include deaths that took place in regions outside of the delineated outlook zones Furthermore only direct wildfire fatalities that occurred on the day that the outlook was issued for are included Critical days Edit Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date99 2023 Hawaii wildfires 6 nbsp Hawaii August 8 202331 October 2017 Northern California wildfires 5 nbsp Western U S October 8 201719 Yarnell Hill Fire 48 nbsp Southwestern U S June 30 201316 North Complex Fire 49 nbsp Northwestern and Southwestern U S September 9 202013 October 2017 Northern California wildfires 50 nbsp Southwestern U S October 9 201712 Cedar Fire 51 nbsp Southwestern U S October 25 2003Extremely critical days Edit Main article List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical days Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date85 Camp Fire 52 nbsp Southwestern U S November 8 201812 Texas Oklahoma wildfires 53 nbsp Great Plains region March 12 200610 54 September 2020 Labor Day wildfires 55 nbsp Northwestern U S September 8 20207 March 2017 Great Plains wildfires 56 nbsp Great Plains region March 6 20174 April 2009 Texas wildfires 57 nbsp Great Plains region April 9 2009See also EditList of United States tornado emergencies List of Storm Prediction Center meso gamma mesoscale discussionsReferences Edit Chris Hayes Novy March 25 2010 SPC and its Products Convective Outlooks Storm Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Retrieved December 26 2022 Henson Bob What Happened and Didn t Happen with the May 20 21 High Risk Outbreak Weather Underground Retrieved December 26 2022 a b Storm Prediction Center May 22 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook a b Storm Prediction Center December 10 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook a b Storm Prediction Center October 8 2017 0657 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook a b NWS Honolulu August 7 2023 Red Flag Warning Iowa Environmental Mesonet Iowa State University Archived from the original on August 10 2023 Retrieved August 10 2023 SPC Convective Outlook May 22 1987 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 Storm Prediction Center November 6 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 3 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center February 2 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center December 11 2021 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center February 6 2008 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center December 31 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 20 2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center November 16 2006 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 15 1984 1918 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 3 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center December 26 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 13 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center January 12 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 5 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center January 11 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 22 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center December 23 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 5 2023 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 29 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center June 21 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC Convective Outlook May 31 1985 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 SPC Convective Outlook February 22 1998 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 SPC Convective Outlook August 28 1990 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 SPC Convective Outlook May 27 1997 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 SPC Convective Outlook March 1 1997 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 Storm Prediction Center April 2 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center May 20 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 12 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 24 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 27 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC Convective Outlook March 28 1984 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 Storm Prediction Center February 5 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC Convective Outlook May 3 1999 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 Storm Prediction Center March 2 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC Convective Outlook March 27 1994 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 Storm Prediction Center May 4 2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC Convective Outlook April 8 1998 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 SPC Convective Outlook November 10 2002 Iowa Environmental Mesonet Retrieved December 27 2022 Notable Weather Events of 2022 National Weather Service Retrieved January 3 2023 Weiss Steven Wilson Larry Edwards Roger December 22 2020 In Memoriam Robert H Johns 1942 2020 National Weather Association Retrieved January 3 2023 Storm Prediction Center June 30 2013 0815 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center September 9 2020 1658 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center October 9 2017 0621 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center October 25 2003 0941 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center November 8 2018 1200 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 12 2006 0950 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Mass Clifford Ovens David Conrick Robert Saltenberger John 2021 The September 2020 Wildfires over the Pacific Northwest Weather and Forecasting American Meteorological Society 36 5 1843 1865 Bibcode 2021WtFor 36 1843M doi 10 1175 WAF D 21 0028 1 S2CID 238699028 Retrieved January 1 2023 Storm Prediction Center September 8 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center March 6 2017 0558 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center April 9 2009 0856 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title List of deadliest Storm Prediction Center days by outlook risk level amp oldid 1181173199, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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