The Kaya identity is a mathematical identity stating that the total emission level of the greenhouse gascarbon dioxide can be expressed as the product of four factors: human population, GDPper capita, energy intensity (per unit of GDP), and carbon intensity (emissions per unit of energy consumed).[1][2] It is a concrete form of the more general I = PAT equation[3] relating factors that determine the level of human impact on climate. Although the terms in the Kaya identity would in theory cancel out, it is useful in practice to calculate emissions in terms of more readily available data, namely population, GDP per capita, energy per unit GDP, and emissions per unit energy. It furthermore highlights the elements of the global economy on which one could act to reduce emissions, notably the energy intensity per unit GDP and the emissions per unit energy.
Kaya Identity: drivers of CO₂ emissions in the World. Percentage change in the four parameters of the Kaya Identity, which determine total CO₂ emissions.
The Kaya identity was developed by Japanese energy economist Yoichi Kaya.[1] It is the subject of his book Environment, Energy, and Economy: strategies for sustainability co-authored with Keiichi Yokobori as the output of the Conference on Global Environment, Energy, and Economic Development (1993 : Tokyo, Japan). It is a mathematically more consistent variation of Paul R. Ehrlich & John Holdren's I=PAT formula that describes the factors of environmental impact.
The Kaya identity plays a core role in the development of future emissions scenarios in the IPCCSpecial Report on Emissions Scenarios. The scenarios set out a range of assumed conditions for future development of each of the four inputs. Population growth projections are available independently from demographic research; GDP per capita trends are available from economic statistics and econometrics; similarly for energy intensity and emission levels. The projected carbon emissions can drive carbon cycle and climate models to predict future CO2 concentration and global warming.[3]
Other usesedit
Bill Gates used a form of the Identity, without attribution, at a TED Talk called Innovating to zero!. Writing in ThinkProgress, Joseph J. Romm disputed the validity of Gates' arguments, as well as clarifying the key idea behind the identity.[5]
^ abKaya, Yoichi; Yokoburi, Keiichi (1997). Environment, energy, and economy : strategies for sustainability. Tokyo [u.a.]: United Nations Univ. Press. ISBN9280809113.
^Yamaji, Matsuhashi; Nagata, Kaya (1993). "A study on economic measures for CO2 reduction in Japan". Energy Policy. 21 (2): 123–132. doi:10.1016/0301-4215(93)90134-2.
^ abNakicenovic, Nebojsa; Swart, Rob, eds. (2000). "Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces, 3.1. Introduction". IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.
^"The "Kaya Identity"". PennState Department of Meteorology. Meteo 469, From Meteorology to Mitigation: Understanding Global Warming. Retrieved 27 November 2015.
^Why Bill Gates’ Math Error About Climate Change Matters ThinkProgress May 2, 2016.
External linksedit
Jancovici, Jean-Marc. "What is Kaya's equation?". jancovici.com. Retrieved 2022-08-29.
"RealClimate: Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate". RealClimate. June 22, 2005. Retrieved 2022-08-29.
"Online KAYA IDENTITY Calculator". climatemodels.uchicago.edu. Retrieved 2022-08-29.
Pielke, Jr., Roger (29 August 2022). "What should the "average CEO" do on ESG related to carbon emissions?". rogerpielkejr.substack.com. Retrieved 2022-08-29.
kaya, identity, mathematical, identity, stating, that, total, emission, level, greenhouse, carbon, dioxide, expressed, product, four, factors, human, population, capita, energy, intensity, unit, carbon, intensity, emissions, unit, energy, consumed, concrete, f. The Kaya identity is a mathematical identity stating that the total emission level of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide can be expressed as the product of four factors human population GDP per capita energy intensity per unit of GDP and carbon intensity emissions per unit of energy consumed 1 2 It is a concrete form of the more general I PAT equation 3 relating factors that determine the level of human impact on climate Although the terms in the Kaya identity would in theory cancel out it is useful in practice to calculate emissions in terms of more readily available data namely population GDP per capita energy per unit GDP and emissions per unit energy It furthermore highlights the elements of the global economy on which one could act to reduce emissions notably the energy intensity per unit GDP and the emissions per unit energy Kaya Identity drivers of CO emissions in the World Percentage change in the four parameters of the Kaya Identity which determine total CO emissions F P G P E G F E displaystyle F P times frac G P times frac E G times frac F E Contents 1 Overview 2 Use in IPCC reports 3 Other uses 4 See also 5 References 6 External linksOverview editThe Kaya identity was developed by Japanese energy economist Yoichi Kaya 1 It is the subject of his book Environment Energy and Economy strategies for sustainability co authored with Keiichi Yokobori as the output of the Conference on Global Environment Energy and Economic Development 1993 Tokyo Japan It is a mathematically more consistent variation of Paul R Ehrlich amp John Holdren s I PAT formula that describes the factors of environmental impact Kaya identity is expressed in the form F P G P E G F E displaystyle F P cdot frac G P cdot frac E G cdot frac F E nbsp Where F is global CO2 emissions from human sources P is global population G is world GDP E is global energy consumption 4 And G P is the GDP per capita E G is the energy intensity of the GDP F E is the emission intensity of energyUse in IPCC reports editThe Kaya identity plays a core role in the development of future emissions scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios The scenarios set out a range of assumed conditions for future development of each of the four inputs Population growth projections are available independently from demographic research GDP per capita trends are available from economic statistics and econometrics similarly for energy intensity and emission levels The projected carbon emissions can drive carbon cycle and climate models to predict future CO2 concentration and global warming 3 Other uses editBill Gates used a form of the Identity without attribution at a TED Talk called Innovating to zero Writing in ThinkProgress Joseph J Romm disputed the validity of Gates arguments as well as clarifying the key idea behind the identity 5 See also editEco economic decoupling Eco efficiency Eco sufficiency Global carbon reward Industrial ecology I PAT Life cycle analysisReferences edit a b Kaya Yoichi Yokoburi Keiichi 1997 Environment energy and economy strategies for sustainability Tokyo u a United Nations Univ Press ISBN 9280809113 Yamaji Matsuhashi Nagata Kaya 1993 A study on economic measures for CO2 reduction in Japan Energy Policy 21 2 123 132 doi 10 1016 0301 4215 93 90134 2 a b Nakicenovic Nebojsa Swart Rob eds 2000 Chapter 3 Scenario Driving Forces 3 1 Introduction IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios The Kaya Identity PennState Department of Meteorology Meteo 469 From Meteorology to Mitigation Understanding Global Warming Retrieved 27 November 2015 Why Bill Gates Math Error About Climate Change Matters ThinkProgress May 2 2016 External links editJancovici Jean Marc What is Kaya s equation jancovici com Retrieved 2022 08 29 Pendergast Duane Beyond Kyoto greenhouse gas sink management www computare org Retrieved 2022 08 29 RealClimate Make your own forecasts of future energy carbon emissions and climate RealClimate June 22 2005 Retrieved 2022 08 29 Online KAYA IDENTITY Calculator climatemodels uchicago edu Retrieved 2022 08 29 Pielke Jr Roger 29 August 2022 What should the average CEO do on ESG related to carbon emissions rogerpielkejr substack com Retrieved 2022 08 29 Portal nbsp Environment Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Kaya identity amp oldid 1169675234, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
