Cardiff North (UK Parliament constituency)

Not to be confused with Cardiff North (Senedd constituency).

Cardiff North (Welsh: Gogledd Caerdydd) is a constituency^{[n 1]} represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2017 by Anna McMorrin of the Labour Party.^{[n 2]}

Cardiff North
Borough constituency for the House of Commons
Boundary of Cardiff North in Wales
Preserved county	South Glamorgan
Population	88,114 (2011 census)^[1]
Electorate	67,194 (December 2010)^[2]
Current constituency
Created	1950
Member of Parliament	Anna McMorrin (Labour)
Seats	One
Created from	Cardiff Central
Overlaps
Senedd	Cardiff North, South Wales Central

The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 8% of the vote since the 14.3% majority won in that year. The seat has changed political allegiance twice since that year.

The constituency is to retain its name and gain wards, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies and under the June 2023 final recommendations of the Boundary Commission for Wales for the next United Kingdom general election.^[3]

History

This seat is the residential quarter of Wales' capital, over half of northern Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing, with a higher number of a middle class population than other sections. Historically it has mainly elected Conservative MPs, but with new housing development Welsh Labour has overturned the nominal majority more recently, turning the seat into a national target swing-constituency. By 2004, the Conservatives held a majority of councillors within the district (13, against five Liberal Democrats, three independents and no Labour), but in the following 2005 general election Welsh Labour's Julie Morgan retained the seat but with a reduced majority.

BBC News political editor Nick Robinson profiled the constituency as part of the BBC's build-up to the 2010 general election:^[4] saying:

The Tories are hopeful of winning the seat, having topped the Euro poll not just here but in Wales as a whole. They have 13 councillors in this constituency as against Labour's none and the Lib Dems' five – even though in Cardiff as a whole, the Lib Dems control the city council. Labour hopes depend on stressing the independence and hard work of the local MP – Julie (wife of Rhodri) Morgan – and persuading those Lib Dems not to switch to the Tories.

Morgan stood again for Welsh Labour in 2010, whilst the Conservatives chose Jonathan Evans MEP, who had previously been the MP for Brecon and Radnor. Evans won by 194 votes.

In 2015, Labour attempted to take the seat back but new candidate, Craig Williams, took it with a majority of 2,137. Many had expected it to be very close run again.^[who?] Labour retook the seat in 2017 on a 6.1% swing, producing a majority of 4,174; this was the first time in the seat's history it had voted for a Labour candidate in an election they did not win and the first time it elected an MP who is not a member of the largest party in the House of Commons since October 1974. In 2019, the seat bucked the trend by swinging to Labour despite their heavy defeat nationally.

Boundaries

 

Map of current boundaries

1950–1974: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Gabalfa, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1974–1983: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1983–2010: The City of Cardiff wards of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane and St Mellons, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

2010–present: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau and Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

Cardiff city centre was in this constituency from its creation in 1950 until 1983, since when it has been in Cardiff Central.

Members of Parliament

Election		Member^[5]^[6]	Party
	1950	David Llewellyn	Conservative
	1959	Donald Box	Conservative
	1966	Ted Rowlands	Labour
	1970	Michael Roberts	Conservative
	Feb 1974	Ian Grist	Conservative
	1983	Gwilym Jones	Conservative
	1997	Julie Morgan	Labour
	2010	Jonathan Evans	Conservative
	2015	Craig Williams	Conservative
	2017	Anna McMorrin	Labour

Elections

Elections in the 1950s

General election 1950: Cardiff North^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	David Llewellyn	23,988	46.9	N/A
	Labour	William Howlett	21,081	41.3	N/A
	Liberal	Douglas Arthur Jones	6,017	11.8	N/A
Majority			2,907	5.6	N/A
Turnout			51,086	84.4	N/A
Registered electors			60,543
	Conservative win (new seat)

General election 1951: Cardiff North^[8][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	David Llewellyn	29,408	56.6	+9.7
	Labour Co-op	John Evans	22,600	43.4	+2.1
Majority			6,808	13.2	+7.6
Turnout			52,008	85.6	+1.2
Registered electors			60,767
	Conservative hold		Swing

General election 1955: Cardiff North^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	David Llewellyn	29,409	59.3	+2.7
	Labour	Leo Abse	20,224	40.7	–2.7
Majority			9,185	18.6	+5.4
Turnout			49,633	80.9	–4.7
Registered electors			61,352
	Conservative hold		Swing

General election 1959: Cardiff North ^[9][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Donald Box	28,737	57.8	–1.5
	Labour	George S. Viner	18,054	36.3	–4.4
	Plaid Cymru	Emrys Roberts	2,553	5.1	N/A
	Independent	Stanley G. Worth	408	0.8	N/A
Majority			10,683	21.5	+3.0
Turnout			49,752	82.9	+2.0
Registered electors			59,986
	Conservative hold		Swing

Elections in the 1960s

General election 1964: Cardiff North^[10][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Donald Box	21,837	44.6	–13.2
	Labour	John A. Reynolds	18,215	37.2	+0.9
	Liberal	Denis G. Rees	7,806	16.0	N/A
	Plaid Cymru	Emrys Roberts	1,058	2.2	–2.9
Majority			3,622	7.4	–14.1
Turnout			48,916	80.7	–2.2
Registered electors			60,632
	Conservative hold		Swing

General election 1966: Cardiff North^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Ted Rowlands	23,669	50.7	+13.5
	Conservative	Donald Box	22,997	49.3	+4.7
Majority			672	1.4	N/A
Turnout			46,666	79.0	–1.7
Registered electors			59,092
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing

Elections in the 1970s

General election 1970: Cardiff North ^[11][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Michael Roberts	21,983	46.9	–2.4
	Labour	Ted Rowlands	20,207	43.2	–7.5
	Liberal	Howard M. O'Brien	2,701	5.8	N/A
	Plaid Cymru	Brian Morgan Edwards	1,927	4.1	N/A
Majority			1,776	3.7	N/A
Turnout			46,818	76.6	–2.4
Registered electors			61,057
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing

General election February 1974: Cardiff North^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Ian Grist	14,659	42.9	–4.0
	Labour	J. Collins	10,806	31.6	–11.6
	Liberal	T A D Thomas	7,139	20.9	+15.1
	Plaid Cymru	P Richards	1,586	4.6	+0.5
Majority			3,853	11.3	+7.6
Turnout			34,190	78.6	+2.0
Registered electors			43,511
	Conservative hold		Swing

General election October 1974: Cardiff North^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Ian Grist	13,480	41.9	–1.0
	Labour	J Collins	11,479	35.7	+4.1
	Liberal	Mike German	5,728	17.8	–3.1
	Plaid Cymru	P. Richards	1,464	4.6	±0.0
Majority			2,001	6.2	–5.1
Turnout			32,151	73.3	–5.3
Registered electors			43,858
	Conservative hold		Swing

General election 1979: Cardiff North^[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Ian Grist	17,181	47.3	+5.4
	Labour	M D Petrou	13,133	36.2	+0.5
	Liberal	Mike German	4,921	13.5	–4.3
	Plaid Cymru	Owen John Thomas	1,081	3.0	–1.6
Majority			4,048	11.1	+4.9
Turnout			36,316	75.7	+2.4
Registered electors			47,973
	Conservative hold		Swing

Elections in the 1980s

General election 1983: Cardiff North^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Gwilym Jones	19,433	47.1	–0.2
	SDP	Anthony Jeremy	12,585	30.5	+17.0
	Labour	Jane Hutt	8,256	20.0	–16.2
	Plaid Cymru	Dafydd J. L. Huws	974	2.4	–0.6
Majority			6,848	16.6	+5.5
Turnout			41,248	77.3	+1.6
Registered electors			53,377
	Conservative hold		Swing

General election 1987: Cardiff North^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Gwilym Jones	20,061	45.3	–1.8
	Labour	Stephen Tarbet	11,827	26.7	+6.7
	SDP	Anthony Jeremy	11,725	26.5	–4.0
	Plaid Cymru	Eluned Bush	692	1.5	–0.9
Majority			8,234	18.6	+2.0
Turnout			44,305	81.0	+3.7
Registered electors			54,704
	Conservative hold		Swing

Elections in the 1990s

General election 1992: Cardiff North^[17][18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Gwilym Jones	21,547	45.1	–0.2
	Labour	Julie Morgan	18,578	38.9	+12.2
	Liberal Democrats	Eve Warlow	6,487	13.6	–12.9
	Plaid Cymru	Eluned Bush	916	1.9	+0.4
	BNP	John Morse	121	0.3	N/A
	Natural Law	David Palmer	86	0.2	N/A
Majority			2,969	6.2	–12.4
Turnout			47,735	84.1	+3.1
Registered electors			56,721
	Conservative hold		Swing	–6.2

General election 1997: Cardiff North^[19][20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Julie Morgan	24,460	50.4	+11.5
	Conservative	Gwilym Jones	16,334	33.7	–11.4
	Liberal Democrats	Robyn Rowland	5,294	10.9	–2.7
	Plaid Cymru	Colin Palfrey	1,201	2.5	+0.6
	Referendum	Edward J. Litchfield	1,199	2.5	N/A
Majority			8,126	16.7	N/A
Turnout			48,488	80.2	–3.9
Registered electors			60,468
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	–11.5

Elections in the 2000s

General election 2001: Cardiff North^[21][22]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Julie Morgan	19,845	45.9	–4.5
	Conservative	Alastair Watson	13,680	31.6	–2.1
	Liberal Democrats	John Dixon	6,631	15.3	+4.4
	Plaid Cymru	Sion Jobbins	2,471	5.7	+3.2
	UKIP	Don Hulston	613	1.4	N/A
Majority			6,165	14.3	–2.4
Turnout			43,240	69.0	–11.2
Registered electors			62,634
	Labour hold		Swing

General election 2005: Cardiff North^[23][24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Julie Morgan	17,707	39.0	–6.9
	Conservative	Jonathan Morgan	16,561	36.5	+4.9
	Liberal Democrats	John Dixon	8,483	18.7	+3.4
	Plaid Cymru	John Rowlands	1,936	4.3	–1.4
	UKIP	Don Hulston	534	1.2	–0.2
	Forward Wales	Alison Hobbs	138	0.3	N/A
	Rainbow Dream Ticket	Catherine Taylor-Dawson	1	0.0	N/A
Majority			1,146	2.5	–11.8
Turnout			45,360	70.5	+1.5
Registered electors			64,390
	Labour hold		Swing	–5.9

Elections in the 2010s

General election 2010: Cardiff North^[25][26][27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Jonathan Evans	17,860	37.5	+1.0
	Labour	Julie Morgan	17,666	37.1	–1.9
	Liberal Democrats	John Dixon	8,724	18.3	–0.4
	Plaid Cymru	Llywelyn Rhys	1,588	3.3	–1.0
	UKIP	Lawrence Gwynn	1,130	2.4	+1.2
	Green	Christopher von Ruhland	362	0.8	N/A
	Christian	Derek Thomson	300	0.6	N/A
Majority			194	0.4	N/A
Turnout			47,630	72.7	+2.2
Registered electors			65,553
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	+1.5

General election 2015: Cardiff North^[28][29][30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Craig Williams	21,709	42.4	+4.9
	Labour	Mari Williams	19,572	38.3	+1.2
	UKIP	Ethan R Wilkinson	3,953	7.7	+5.3
	Plaid Cymru	Elin Jones	2,301	4.5	+1.2
	Liberal Democrats	Elizabeth Clark	1,953	3.8	–14.5
	Green	Ruth Osner	1,254	2.5	+1.7
	Christian	Jeff Green	331	0.6	±0.0
	Alter Change	Shaun Jenkins	78	0.2	N/A
Rejected ballots			80
Majority			2,137	4.1	+3.7
Turnout			51,151	76.1	+3.4
Registered electors			67,196
	Conservative hold		Swing	+1.8

Of the 80 rejected ballots:

• 64 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.^[29]
• 14 voted for more than one candidate.^[29]
• 2 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.^[29]

See also: Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15 § Cardiff North

General election 2017: Cardiff North^[31][32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Anna McMorrin	26,081	50.1	+11.8
	Conservative	Craig Williams	21,907	42.1	–0.3
	Plaid Cymru	Steffan Webb	1,738	3.3	–1.2
	Liberal Democrats	Matt Hemsley	1,714	3.3	–0.5
	UKIP	Gary Oldfield	582	1.1	–6.6
Rejected ballots			98
Majority			4,174	8.0	N/A
Turnout			52,022	77.4	+1.3
Registered electors			67,220
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	+6.1

Of the 98 rejected ballots:

• 77 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.^[32]
• 21 voted for more than one candidate.^[32]

General election 2019: Cardiff North^[33][34]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Anna McMorrin	26,064	49.5	–0.6
	Conservative	Mo Ali	19,082	36.2	–5.9
	Liberal Democrats	Rhys Taylor	3,580	6.8	+3.5
	Plaid Cymru	Steffan Webb	1,606	3.0	–0.3
	Brexit Party	Chris Butler	1,311	2.5	N/A
	Green	Michael Cope	820	1.6	N/A
	Independent	Richard Jones	203	0.4	N/A
Rejected ballots			111
Majority			6,982	13.3	+5.3
Turnout			52,666	76.9	―0.5
Registered electors			68,438
	Labour hold		Swing	+2.8

Of the 111 rejected ballots:

• 86 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.^[34]
• 22 voted for more than one candidate.^[34]
• 3 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.^[34]

See also

• Cardiff North (Senedd constituency)
• List of parliamentary constituencies in South Glamorgan
• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election in individual constituencies
• List of parliamentary constituencies in Wales

Notes

1. A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
2. As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

References

1. . Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Archived from the original on 21 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
2. "Beyond 20/20 WDS – Table view". 2011 Electorate Figures. StatsWales. 1 December 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
3. 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies - The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies in Wales (PDF). Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023.
4. "BBC - Nick Robinson's Newslog: Taking The Pulse: Cardiff". www.bbc.co.uk.
5. "Cardiff North 1950–". Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Retrieved 2 February 2015.
7. Craig, F. W. S. (1971). British parliamentary election results 1950-1970 (1 ed.). Chichester: Political Reference Publications. ISBN 9780900178023. Page 554
8. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1951.
9. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1959.
10. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1964.
11. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1970.
12. . Election February 1974. Politics Resources. 28 February 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
13. . Election October 1974. Politics Resources. 10 October 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
14. . Election 1979. Politics Resources. 3 May 1979. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
15. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
16. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
17. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
18. . Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
19. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
20. "BBC NEWS>VOTE 2001>Results and Constituencies>Cardiff North". Vote 2001. BBC News. 1 May 1997. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
21. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
22. "BBC NEWS > Cardiff North". Vote 2001. BBC News. 7 June 2001. Retrieved 22 January 2011.
23. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
24. "Cardiff North parliamentary constituency - Election 2005" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
25. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
26. Cardiff North 9 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine Cardiff County Council – candidates Cardiff North
27. Cardiff North BBC Election – Cardiff North
28. . Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
29. "Cardiff North result". Election results for Cardiff North. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
30. "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". Election 2015. BBC News. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
31. "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". Election 2017 Results. BBC. Retrieved 8 June 2017.
32. "Results". Cardiff Council. Cardiff Council. Retrieved 12 January 2020.
33. "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
34. "Election results for Cardiff North". Cardiff Council. Cardiff Council. Retrieved 12 January 2020.

External links

• nomis Constituency Profile for Cardiff North – presenting data from the ONS annual population survey and other official statistics.
• (Election results from 1922 onwards)
• Electoral Calculus (Election results from 1955 onwards)
• 2017 Election House Of Commons Library 2017 Election report
• A Vision Of Britain Through Time (Constituency elector numbers)

51°31′01″N 3°12′11″W / 51.517°N 3.203°W / 51.517; -3.203