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2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross
Party Republican Independent[a]
Alliance Democratic[a]
Popular vote 191,112 146,068
Percentage 53.90% 41.19%

Sullivan:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Gross:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%      >80%
Tie:      40–50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Withdrawn edit

Endorsements edit

Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials
Individuals

Primary results edit

Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 65,257 100.00%
Total votes 65,257 100.00%

Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary edit

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[12]

Democratic candidates edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Disqualified from the ballot edit

  • Larry N. Barnes (independent)[8][b]

Withdrawn edit

  • David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[8]

Alaskan Independence candidates edit

Nominee edit

  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[14]

Endorsements edit

Primary results edit

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Al Gross 50,047 79.87%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 5,463 8.72%
Independence John Howe 4,165 6.65%
Independent Christopher Cumings 2,989 4.77%
Total votes 62,664 100.00%

Other candidates edit

Green Party edit

Nominee edit

Independent edit

Declared edit

Withdrawn edit

  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[31][32]

General election edit

Issues edit

Pebble Mine edit

Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay.[33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns.[34][35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition.[36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supports Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine.[37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition.[38]

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Lean R October 29, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[40] Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist[41] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[42] Lean R October 30, 2020
DDHQ[43] Lean R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[44] Lean R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP[46] Lean R October 23, 2020
Politico[47] Lean R November 2, 2020

Endorsements edit

Dan Sullivan (R)
U.S. Federal Officials
Organizations
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Al Gross (I)
U.S. senators
State executives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polls edit

Graphical summary
Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Al
Gross (I)
John
Howe (AI)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing October 26–28, 2020 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 19–20, 2020 800 (V) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 5% 10%
Change Research (I)[B] October 16–19, 2020 1,076 (LV) ± 4% 47% 44% 3% 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 9–14, 2020 423 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 37% 10% 2%[d] 7%[e]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] October 10–13, 2020 606 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) 46% 46%
Patinkin Research Strategies September 30 – October 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47% 2%[f] 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 26 – October 4, 2020 696 (LV) 48% 44% 8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[C] September 20–23, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4% 46% 45%
Public Policy Polling (D)[1] August 27–28, 2020 638 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[D] July 7–8, 2020 1,081 (V) ± 3.0% 39% 34% 27%
Alaska Survey Research June 23 – July 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 40% 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Forrest
Dunbar (D)
Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 500 (LV) 39% 39% 22%
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Forrest
Dunbar (I)
Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – June 4, 2019 500 (LV) 42% 40% 19%

Results edit

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska[62]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 191,112 53.90% +5.94%
Independent Al Gross[a] 146,068 41.19% −4.64%
Independence John Howe 16,806 4.74% N/A
Write-in 601 0.17% −0.32%
Total votes 354,587 100.0%
Republican hold
By state house district
District[63] Dan Sullivan
Republican
Al Gross
Independent
John Howe
Independence
Write-in Margin Total
votes
Representative
# % # % # % # % # %
District 1 3,487 48.36 3,293 45.67 414 5.74 16 0.22 194 2.69 7,210 Bart LeBon
District 2 3,379 59.75 1,895 33.51 372 6.58 9 0.16 1,484 26.24 5,655 Steve M. Thompson
District 3 6,004 72.32 1,810 21.80 480 5.78 8 0.10 4,194 50.52 8,302 Mike Prax
District 4 4,817 45.69 5,301 50.28 407 3.86 17 0.16 -484 -4.59 10,542 Grier Hopkins
District 5 4,188 48.49 4,104 47.52 332 3.84 13 0.15 84 0.97 8,637 Adam Wool
District 6 5,601 60.87 3,068 33.34 518 5.63 15 0.16 2,533 16.66 9,202 Mike Cronk
District 7 6,752 70.90 2,185 22.94 563 5.91 23 0.24 4,567 47.96 9,523 Christopher Kurka
District 8 7,253 73.86 1,980 20.16 574 5.84 13 0.13 5,273 53.70 9,820 Kevin J. McCabe
District 9 7,582 69.53 2,786 25.55 519 4.76 17 0.16 4,796 43.98 10,904 George Rauscher
District 10 7,735 69.72 2,742 24.71 598 5.39 20 0.18 4,993 45.00 11,095 David Eastman
District 11 7,051 66.63 3,047 28.79 476 4.50 8 0.08 4,004 37.84 10,582 DeLena Johnson
District 12 7,877 70.73 2,824 25.36 425 3.82 11 0.10 5,053 45.37 11,137 Cathy Tilton
District 13 4,684 62.75 2,400 32.15 372 4.98 8 0.11 2,284 30.60 7,464 Ken McCarty
District 14 7,114 62.23 3,894 34.06 415 3.63 9 0.08 3,220 28.17 11,432 Kelly Merrick
District 15 2,613 48.61 2,449 45.56 308 5.73 5 0.09 164 3.05 5,375 David Nelson
District 16 3,545 43.87 4,110 50.87 410 5.07 15 0.19 -565 -6.99 8,080 Ivy Spohnholz
District 17 2,903 40.42 3,951 55.01 315 4.39 13 0.18 -1,048 -14.59 7,182 Andy Josephson
District 18 2,807 36.63 4,553 59.41 289 3.77 14 0.18 -1,746 -22.78 7,663 Harriet Drummond
District 19 1,876 35.73 3,046 58.01 310 5.90 19 0.36 -1,170 -22.28 5,251 Geran Tarr
District 20 2,526 33.95 4,657 62.59 243 3.27 14 0.19 -2,131 -28.64 7,440 Zack Fields
District 21 3,980 42.21 5,141 54.52 296 3.14 12 0.13 -1,161 -12.31 9,429 Matt Claman
District 22 4,977 52.16 4,202 44.04 336 3.52 26 0.27 775 7.91 9,541 Sara Rasmussen
District 23 3,734 48.38 3,638 47.14 335 4.34 11 0.14 96 1.24 7,718 Chris Tuck
District 24 5,835 55.87 4,363 41.78 238 2.28 7 0.07 1,472 14.10 10,443 Thomas McKay
District 25 4,556 49.07 4,367 47.03 350 3.77 12 0.13 189 2.04 9,285 Calvin Schrage
District 26 5,651 55.95 4,172 41.31 267 2.64 10 0.10 1,479 14.64 10,100 Laddie Shaw
District 27 4,534 47.76 4,608 48.54 342 3.60 9 0.09 -74 -0.78 9,493 Liz Snyder
District 28 6,753 52.83 5,776 45.18 244 1.91 10 0.08 977 7.64 12,783 James D. Kaufman
District 29 7,237 67.86 2,923 27.41 497 4.66 7 0.07 4,314 40.45 10,664 Ben Carpenter
District 30 7,034 70.06 2,502 24.92 485 4.83 19 0.19 4,532 45.14 10,040 Ron Gillham
District 31 6,763 54.84 5,049 40.94 498 4.04 23 0.19 1,714 13.90 12,333 Sarah Vance
District 32 4,309 52.49 3,449 42.01 438 5.34 13 0.16 860 10.48 8,209 Louise Stutes
District 33 3,074 28.20 7,463 68.47 341 3.13 21 0.19 -4,389 -40.27 10,899 Sara Hannan
District 34 4,667 43.57 5,608 52.35 427 3.99 10 0.09 -941 -8.78 10,712 Andi Story
District 35 4,388 43.84 5,004 49.99 598 5.97 20 0.20 -616 -6.15 10,010 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
District 36 5,005 54.42 3,679 40.00 495 5.38 18 0.20 1,326 14.42 9,197 Dan Ortiz
District 37 2,393 47.17 2,303 45.40 366 7.21 11 0.22 90 1.77 5,073 Bryce Edgmon
District 38 1,698 32.07 2,972 56.13 610 11.52 15 0.28 -1,274 -24.06 5,295 Tiffany Zulkosky
District 39 2,403 41.03 2,701 46.12 699 11.93 54 0.92 -298 -5.09 5,857 Neal Foster
District 40 2,275 49.56 1,706 37.17 594 12.94 15 0.33 569 12.40 4,590 Josiah Patkotak
Totals 191,112 53.90 146,068 41.19 16,806 4.74 601 0.17 45,044 12.70 354,587

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party, and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee.[1]
  2. ^ Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^ Includes "Refused"
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ^ Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References edit

  1. ^ a b "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  2. ^ Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  3. ^ . www.elections.alaska.gov. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  4. ^ Burns, Katelyn (October 22, 2020). "Al Gross is hoping to ride Alaska's independent streak to the Senate". Vox. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  5. ^ Nat Herz [@Nat_Herz] (October 18, 2020). "New Alaska poll by Patinkin Research Strategies (not sure who paid but they are doing work for Yes on 2 in AK) has Al Gross up 47–46 and Trump up 49–46 Unclear how exactly they included 3rd party candidates, which may account for difference bw this+recent NYT poll. #AKleg #AKsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  6. ^ "SULLIVAN, DAN – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  7. ^ McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). . TheWell News. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  8. ^ a b c d e "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  9. ^ a b "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
  10. ^ a b "Mark Levin Audio Rewind – 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  11. ^ a b "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF).
  12. ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  13. ^ "Alaska – Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  14. ^ "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
  15. ^ a b "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
  16. ^ a b c d . Humanity Forward. Archived from the original on June 28, 2020. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  17. ^ a b . 314 Action. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
  18. ^ a b . Archived from the original on September 19, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  19. ^ a b Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). . KTVA. Archived from the original on October 14, 2019. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  20. ^ a b "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  21. ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  22. ^ a b . J Street PAC. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. ^ a b . Archived from the original on July 26, 2020. Retrieved July 26, 2020.
  24. ^ a b "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
  25. ^ a b . www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2020.
  26. ^ a b "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project. July 29, 2020.
  27. ^ a b "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  28. ^ a b "Alaska". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  29. ^ a b c . www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  30. ^ Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
  31. ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  32. ^ "Identification Number: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  33. ^ Ruskin, Liz (November 25, 2020). "Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska". NPR. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  34. ^ Laine, Welch (June 30, 2020). "Alaska salmon: Bristol Bay opens with Pebble Mine decision pending". National Fisherman. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  35. ^ DeMarban, Alex (August 24, 2020). "Pebble mine would cause 'significant degradation' in Bristol Bay region and can't be permitted as proposed, Trump administration says". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  36. ^ DeMarban, Alex (September 22, 2020). "In recordings, Pebble executives discuss influence with Gov. Mike Dunleavy and one day expanding the mine". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  37. ^ DeMarban, Alex; Wieber, Aubrey (September 25, 2020). "Sen. Sullivan says 'No Pebble mine' following release of secretly recorded videos of company executives and criticism by Gross". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  38. ^ Wieber, Aubrey (October 11, 2020). "Sullivan and Gross battled it out on fisheries, Pebble Mine and Outside money in debut U.S. Senate debate". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved January 1, 2024.
  39. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  40. ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  41. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  42. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  43. ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  44. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  45. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  46. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
  47. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  48. ^ Senator Murkowski: More Than Ever
  49. ^ Sweeney, Tara (October 25, 2020). "Sullivan has been a champion for rural Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  50. ^ . Calista Corporation. Archived from the original on September 21, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  51. ^ "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate". Bering Straits. August 18, 2020.
  52. ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
  53. ^ . dansullivanforalaska.com. Archived from the original on August 9, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  54. ^ Anchorage Daily News editorial board (October 31, 2020). "Sen. Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska's interests". Anchorage Daily News.
  55. ^ Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
  56. ^ . Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  57. ^ Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
  58. ^ "DUH/PEP website". duh4all.org.
  59. ^ "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
  60. ^ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
  61. ^ . NEA-Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  62. ^ "2020 General Election – Election Summary Report – Official Results" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  63. ^ "Alaska Senate Election Results 2020". National Election Pool. NBC News. March 31, 2021. Retrieved January 23, 2022.

Further reading edit

  • Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com

External links edit

Official campaign websites
  • Al Gross (I) for Senate
  • John Howe (AI) for Senate
  • Dan Sullivan (R) for Senate

2020, united, states, senate, election, alaska, also, 2020, united, states, senate, elections, confused, with, 2020, alaska, senate, election, held, november, 2020, elect, member, united, states, senate, represent, state, alaska, concurrently, with, nationwide. See also 2020 United States Senate elections Not to be confused with 2020 Alaska Senate election The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3 2020 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska concurrently with the nationwide presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re election to a second term in office defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross the son of Avrum Gross who ran as an independent candidate 2 John Wayne Howe the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party was also on the ballot and finished a distant third 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska 2014 November 3 2020 2026 Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross Party Republican Independent a Alliance Democratic a Popular vote 191 112 146 068 Percentage 53 90 41 19 State house district resultsBorough and census area resultsPrecinct resultsSullivan 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 Gross 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 gt 80 Tie 40 50 No votesU S senator before election Dan Sullivan Republican Elected U S Senator Dan Sullivan Republican Both primaries took place on August 18 2020 3 Some pundits considered this to be a potential dark horse flip for the Democrats as Gross did unexpectedly well 4 in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold even leading in some polls 5 However this lead did not materialize Sullivan won re election by a margin of 12 7 triple his average lead in the pre election polling Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50 of the vote Contents 1 Republican primary 1 1 Candidates 1 1 1 Nominee 1 1 2 Withdrawn 1 1 3 Endorsements 1 2 Primary results 2 Libertarian Democratic Independence primary 2 1 Democratic candidates 2 1 1 Nominee 2 1 2 Eliminated in primary 2 1 3 Disqualified from the ballot 2 1 4 Withdrawn 2 2 Alaskan Independence candidates 2 2 1 Nominee 2 3 Endorsements 2 4 Primary results 3 Other candidates 3 1 Green Party 3 1 1 Nominee 3 2 Independent 3 2 1 Declared 3 2 2 Withdrawn 4 General election 4 1 Issues 4 1 1 Pebble Mine 4 2 Predictions 4 2 1 Endorsements 4 3 Polls 4 4 Results 4 4 1 Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican 5 Notes 6 References 7 Further reading 8 External linksRepublican primary editCandidates edit Nominee edit Dan Sullivan incumbent U S senator 6 Withdrawn edit Adam Master Newman 7 8 Endorsements edit Dan SullivanU S federal officials Donald Trump 45th president of the United States 9 Individuals Mark Levin conservative talk radio host 10 Primary results edit Republican primary results 11 Party Candidate Votes Republican Dan Sullivan incumbent 65 257 100 00 Total votes 65 257 100 00 Libertarian Democratic Independence primary editCandidates from the Alaska Democratic Party the Alaska Libertarian Party and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot with the highest placed candidate from each party receiving that party s nomination In October 2017 the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018 12 Democratic candidates edit Nominee edit Al Gross independent orthopedic surgeon commercial fisherman and son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross 1 Eliminated in primary edit Edgar Blatchford Democratic Democratic candidate in the 2016 election for the U S Senate founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers Inc former mayor of Seward 1999 2003 and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce Community and Economic Development 8 Chris Cumings independent Democratic candidate in the 2018 election for Alaska s at large congressional district and ex bank employee 13 8 Disqualified from the ballot edit Larry N Barnes independent 8 b Withdrawn edit David Darden independent nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election 8 Alaskan Independence candidates edit Nominee edit John Howe Alaskan Independence machinist 14 Endorsements edit Al GrossLocal officials Pete Buttigieg 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend Indiana 2012 2020 15 Individuals Andrew Yang Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship 2015 2017 2020 Democratic presidential candidate 16 Organizations 314 Action 17 Alaska Center 18 Alaska Democratic Party 19 DSCC 20 End Citizens United 21 Humanity Forward 16 J Street PAC 22 Jewish Democratic Council of America 23 Orthopaedic PAC 24 Planned Parenthood Action Fund 25 The Lincoln Project 26 Union Communications Workers of America 27 Primary results edit Democratic Libertarian Independence primary results 11 Party Candidate Votes Independent Al Gross 50 047 79 87 Democratic Edgar Blatchford 5 463 8 72 Independence John Howe 4 165 6 65 Independent Christopher Cumings 2 989 4 77 Total votes 62 664 100 00 Other candidates editGreen Party edit Nominee edit Jed Whittaker Green nominee in the 1996 United States Senate election in Alaska and salvage company owner write in candidate 28 29 Independent edit Declared edit Sidney Sid Hill Independent write in candidate for the 2018 election in Alaska s at large congressional district Independent write in candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska and LaRouchite write in candidate 28 29 30 Karen Nanouk write in candidate 29 Withdrawn edit David Matheny wildfire technician 31 32 General election editIssues edit Pebble Mine edit Before the election the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine a copper gold and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay 33 Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020 citing environmental concerns 34 35 In September 2020 recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska s senators including Sullivan would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition 36 Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan claiming that Sullivan actually supports Pebble Mine In response Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine 37 The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10 In the debate Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine while Sullivan defended his opposition 38 Predictions edit Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report 39 Lean R October 29 2020 FiveThirtyEight 40 Likely R November 2 2020 Economist 41 Lean R November 2 2020 Daily Kos 42 Lean R October 30 2020 DDHQ 43 Lean R November 3 2020 Inside Elections 44 Lean R October 28 2020 Sabato s Crystal Ball 45 Lean R November 2 2020 RCP 46 Lean R October 23 2020 Politico 47 Lean R November 2 2020 Endorsements edit Dan Sullivan R U S Federal Officials Donald Trump 45th president of the United States 9 Lisa Murkowski U S senator from Alaska 2002 present 48 Tara Sweeney Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs 49 Organizations Calista Corporation 50 Bering Straits Native Corporation 51 United States Chamber of Commerce 52 Individuals Mark Levin conservative talk radio host 10 Labor unions International Union of Operating Engineers 53 Newspapers Anchorage Daily News 54 Al Gross I U S senators Kamala Harris U S senator from California 2017 present Democratic Party s nominee for vice president in the 2020 election 55 Chuck Schumer U S senator from New York 1999 present Senate Majority Leader 2020 present Senate Minority Leader 2017 2020 Member of the U S House of Representatives from New York s 9th congressional district 1993 1999 New York s 10th congressional district 1983 1993 New York s 16th congressional district 1981 1983 56 State executives Tony Knowles Governor of Alaska 1994 2002 Mayor of Anchorage 1981 1987 57 Local officials Pete Buttigieg 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend Indiana 2012 2020 15 Individuals Andrew Yang Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship 2015 2017 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate 16 Organizations 314 Action 17 Alaska Center 18 Alaska Democratic Party 19 Demand Universal Healthcare 58 Democratic Majority for Israel 59 DSCC 20 End Citizens United 21 J Street PAC 22 Jewish Democratic Council of America 23 Humanity Forward 16 Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund 60 Orthopaedic PAC 24 Planned Parenthood Action Fund 25 The Lincoln Project 26 Unions Communications Workers of America 27 National Education Association of Alaska 61 Polls edit Graphical summary Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki org Polling Poll source Date s administered Samplesize c Marginof error DanSullivan R AlGross I JohnHowe AI Other Undecided Gravis Marketing October 26 28 2020 770 LV 3 5 48 45 7 Public Policy Polling D A October 19 20 2020 800 V 3 5 44 41 5 10 Change Research I B October 16 19 2020 1 076 LV 4 47 44 3 5 Siena College NYT Upshot October 9 14 2020 423 LV 5 7 45 37 10 2 d 7 e Harstad Strategic Research Inc I B October 10 13 2020 606 LV 4 46 47 Harstad Strategic Research Inc I B October 2 6 2020 600 LV 46 46 Patinkin Research Strategies September 30 October 4 2020 600 LV 4 46 47 2 f 5 Alaska Survey Research September 26 October 4 2020 696 LV 48 44 8 Harstad Strategic Research Inc I C September 20 23 2020 602 LV 4 46 45 Public Policy Polling D 1 August 27 28 2020 638 V 3 9 43 43 14 Public Policy Polling D July 7 8 2020 1 081 V 3 0 39 34 27 Alaska Survey Research June 23 July 7 2020 663 LV 3 8 53 40 7 Hypothetical pollingwith Forrest Dunbar Poll source Date s administered Samplesize c Marginof error DanSullivan R ForrestDunbar D Undecided Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 Jun 4 2019 500 LV 39 39 22 with Forrest Dunbar as an independent Poll source Date s administered Samplesize c Marginof error DanSullivan R ForrestDunbar I Undecided Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 June 4 2019 500 LV 42 40 19 Results edit 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska 62 Party Candidate Votes Republican Dan Sullivan incumbent 191 112 53 90 5 94 Independent Al Gross a 146 068 41 19 4 64 Independence John Howe 16 806 4 74 N A Write in 601 0 17 0 32 Total votes 354 587 100 0 Republican hold By state house district District 63 Dan SullivanRepublican Al GrossIndependent John HoweIndependence Write in Margin Totalvotes Representative District 1 3 487 48 36 3 293 45 67 414 5 74 16 0 22 194 2 69 7 210 Bart LeBon District 2 3 379 59 75 1 895 33 51 372 6 58 9 0 16 1 484 26 24 5 655 Steve M Thompson District 3 6 004 72 32 1 810 21 80 480 5 78 8 0 10 4 194 50 52 8 302 Mike Prax District 4 4 817 45 69 5 301 50 28 407 3 86 17 0 16 484 4 59 10 542 Grier Hopkins District 5 4 188 48 49 4 104 47 52 332 3 84 13 0 15 84 0 97 8 637 Adam Wool District 6 5 601 60 87 3 068 33 34 518 5 63 15 0 16 2 533 16 66 9 202 Mike Cronk District 7 6 752 70 90 2 185 22 94 563 5 91 23 0 24 4 567 47 96 9 523 Christopher Kurka District 8 7 253 73 86 1 980 20 16 574 5 84 13 0 13 5 273 53 70 9 820 Kevin J McCabe District 9 7 582 69 53 2 786 25 55 519 4 76 17 0 16 4 796 43 98 10 904 George Rauscher District 10 7 735 69 72 2 742 24 71 598 5 39 20 0 18 4 993 45 00 11 095 David Eastman District 11 7 051 66 63 3 047 28 79 476 4 50 8 0 08 4 004 37 84 10 582 DeLena Johnson District 12 7 877 70 73 2 824 25 36 425 3 82 11 0 10 5 053 45 37 11 137 Cathy Tilton District 13 4 684 62 75 2 400 32 15 372 4 98 8 0 11 2 284 30 60 7 464 Ken McCarty District 14 7 114 62 23 3 894 34 06 415 3 63 9 0 08 3 220 28 17 11 432 Kelly Merrick District 15 2 613 48 61 2 449 45 56 308 5 73 5 0 09 164 3 05 5 375 David Nelson District 16 3 545 43 87 4 110 50 87 410 5 07 15 0 19 565 6 99 8 080 Ivy Spohnholz District 17 2 903 40 42 3 951 55 01 315 4 39 13 0 18 1 048 14 59 7 182 Andy Josephson District 18 2 807 36 63 4 553 59 41 289 3 77 14 0 18 1 746 22 78 7 663 Harriet Drummond District 19 1 876 35 73 3 046 58 01 310 5 90 19 0 36 1 170 22 28 5 251 Geran Tarr District 20 2 526 33 95 4 657 62 59 243 3 27 14 0 19 2 131 28 64 7 440 Zack Fields District 21 3 980 42 21 5 141 54 52 296 3 14 12 0 13 1 161 12 31 9 429 Matt Claman District 22 4 977 52 16 4 202 44 04 336 3 52 26 0 27 775 7 91 9 541 Sara Rasmussen District 23 3 734 48 38 3 638 47 14 335 4 34 11 0 14 96 1 24 7 718 Chris Tuck District 24 5 835 55 87 4 363 41 78 238 2 28 7 0 07 1 472 14 10 10 443 Thomas McKay District 25 4 556 49 07 4 367 47 03 350 3 77 12 0 13 189 2 04 9 285 Calvin Schrage District 26 5 651 55 95 4 172 41 31 267 2 64 10 0 10 1 479 14 64 10 100 Laddie Shaw District 27 4 534 47 76 4 608 48 54 342 3 60 9 0 09 74 0 78 9 493 Liz Snyder District 28 6 753 52 83 5 776 45 18 244 1 91 10 0 08 977 7 64 12 783 James D Kaufman District 29 7 237 67 86 2 923 27 41 497 4 66 7 0 07 4 314 40 45 10 664 Ben Carpenter District 30 7 034 70 06 2 502 24 92 485 4 83 19 0 19 4 532 45 14 10 040 Ron Gillham District 31 6 763 54 84 5 049 40 94 498 4 04 23 0 19 1 714 13 90 12 333 Sarah Vance District 32 4 309 52 49 3 449 42 01 438 5 34 13 0 16 860 10 48 8 209 Louise Stutes District 33 3 074 28 20 7 463 68 47 341 3 13 21 0 19 4 389 40 27 10 899 Sara Hannan District 34 4 667 43 57 5 608 52 35 427 3 99 10 0 09 941 8 78 10 712 Andi Story District 35 4 388 43 84 5 004 49 99 598 5 97 20 0 20 616 6 15 10 010 Jonathan Kreiss Tomkins District 36 5 005 54 42 3 679 40 00 495 5 38 18 0 20 1 326 14 42 9 197 Dan Ortiz District 37 2 393 47 17 2 303 45 40 366 7 21 11 0 22 90 1 77 5 073 Bryce Edgmon District 38 1 698 32 07 2 972 56 13 610 11 52 15 0 28 1 274 24 06 5 295 Tiffany Zulkosky District 39 2 403 41 03 2 701 46 12 699 11 93 54 0 92 298 5 09 5 857 Neal Foster District 40 2 275 49 56 1 706 37 17 594 12 94 15 0 33 569 12 40 4 590 Josiah Patkotak Totals 191 112 53 90 146 068 41 19 16 806 4 74 601 0 17 45 044 12 70 354 587 Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit Aleutians East Borough largest city Akutan Aleutians West Census Area largest city Unalaska Anchorage Denali Borough largest city Healy Nome Census Area largest city Nome North Slope Borough largest city Utqiaġvik Northwest Arctic Borough largest city Kotzebue Prince of Wales Hyder Census Area largest city Craig Notes edit a b c Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee 1 Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline a b c Key A all adultsRV registered votersLV likely votersV unclear Would not vote with 1 Someone else with 0 Includes Refused Someone else with 2 Partisan clients Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care a pro Affordable Care Act organization a b c Poll conducted for Gross campaign Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC which has supported Al Gross s campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll s sampling period Polling s funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter References edit a b Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat Associated Press June 2 2019 Taylor Jessica June 12 2020 Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican The Cook Political Report Retrieved August 29 2020 Alaska Division of Elections www elections alaska gov Archived from the original on December 23 2020 Retrieved August 20 2020 Burns Katelyn October 22 2020 Al Gross is hoping to ride Alaska s independent streak to the Senate Vox Retrieved April 30 2021 Nat Herz Nat Herz October 18 2020 New Alaska poll by Patinkin Research Strategies not sure who paid but they are doing work for Yes on 2 in AK has Al Gross up 47 46 and Trump up 49 46 Unclear how exactly they included 3rd party candidates which may account for difference bw this recent NYT poll AKleg AKsen Tweet via Twitter SULLIVAN DAN Candidate overview FEC gov McCue Dan May 1 2020 Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map TheWell News Archived from the original on September 13 2020 Retrieved May 15 2020 a b c d e Alaska Division of Elections www elections alaska gov June 5 2020 Retrieved June 2 2020 a b President Trump endorses Sullivan re election as US senator for Alaska KTUU December 18 2019 Retrieved December 30 2019 a b Mark Levin Audio Rewind 10 20 20 Apple Podcasts Retrieved November 1 2020 a b Alaska Secretary of State s office Election Summary Report Official Results PDF Hertz Nathaniel April 4 2018 Independents can run in party primaries Alaska Supreme Court says opening door for Gov Walker Anchorage Daily News Alaska Senate FEC Retrieved May 17 2020 John Wayne Howe Alaskan Independence Party runs for U S Senate KTVF News July 6 2020 a b AK Sen Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr Al Gross I Take Away Moscow Mitch s Majority Daily Kos a b c d Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements Humanity Forward Archived from the original on June 28 2020 Retrieved August 13 2020 a b Endorsed Candidates 314actionfund 314 Action Archived from the original on April 4 2020 Retrieved November 27 2019 a b Endorsed Candidates 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections Archived from the original on September 19 2020 Retrieved August 20 2020 a b Quinn Steve October 11 2019 Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate KTVA Archived from the original on October 14 2019 Retrieved October 14 2019 a b DSCC Endorses Dr Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race DSCC December 3 2019 a b Muller Tiffany January 21 2020 End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision End Citizens United a b Al Gross I AK Sen J Street PAC Archived from the original on September 13 2020 Retrieved August 6 2020 a b 2020 Endorsements Archived from the original on July 26 2020 Retrieved July 26 2020 a b AAOS Now October 2019 OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross MD for U S Senate www aaos org a b 2020 Endorsements www plannedparenthoodaction org Archived from the original on April 12 2020 Retrieved March 29 2020 a b Al Gross For The Great Land The Lincoln Project Al Gross For The Great Land The Lincoln Project July 29 2020 a b Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross AK for US Senate Communications Workers of America June 11 2020 a b Alaska Politics1 Retrieved May 17 2020 a b c November 3 2020 General Election Candidate List www elections alaska gov October 29 2020 Archived from the original on October 28 2020 Retrieved October 30 2020 Maguire Sean August 14 2020 Meet Alaska s candidates for the U S Senate ahead of the Aug 18 primaries KTUU Retrieved August 21 2020 Downing Suzanne May 11 2019 Sen Sullivan has his first challenger a Bernie supporter Must Read Alaska Retrieved May 15 2020 Identification Number C00705293 PDF FEC May 29 2019 Retrieved June 2 2020 Ruskin Liz November 25 2020 Trump Administration Rejects Pebble Mine Project In Alaska NPR Retrieved January 1 2024 Laine Welch June 30 2020 Alaska salmon Bristol Bay opens with Pebble Mine decision pending National Fisherman Retrieved January 1 2024 DeMarban Alex August 24 2020 Pebble mine would cause significant degradation in Bristol Bay region and can t be permitted as proposed Trump administration says Anchorage Daily News Retrieved January 1 2024 DeMarban Alex September 22 2020 In recordings Pebble executives discuss influence with Gov Mike Dunleavy and one day expanding the mine Anchorage Daily News Retrieved January 1 2024 DeMarban Alex Wieber Aubrey September 25 2020 Sen Sullivan says No Pebble mine following release of secretly recorded videos of company executives and criticism by Gross Anchorage Daily News Retrieved January 1 2024 Wieber Aubrey October 11 2020 Sullivan and Gross battled it out on fisheries Pebble Mine and Outside money in debut U S Senate debate Anchorage Daily News Retrieved January 1 2024 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29 2020 The Cook Political Report Retrieved March 11 2021 Silver Nate September 18 2020 Forecasting the race for the Senate FiveThirtyEight Retrieved September 18 2020 Forecasting the US elections The Economist November 2 2020 Retrieved March 13 2021 2020 Senate Race Ratings Daily Kos Elections Retrieved March 13 2021 2020 Senate Elections Model Decision Desk HQ September 2 2020 Retrieved September 2 2020 2020 Senate Ratings Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report Retrieved March 11 2021 2020 Senate race ratings Sabato s Crystal Ball Retrieved March 12 2021 Battle for the Senate 2020 RCP October 23 2020 2020 Election Forecast Politico November 19 2019 Senator Murkowski More Than Ever Sweeney Tara October 25 2020 Sullivan has been a champion for rural Alaska Anchorage Daily News Retrieved October 16 2021 PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election Calista Corporation Archived from the original on September 21 2020 Retrieved August 23 2020 BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate Bering Straits August 18 2020 U S Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U S Senate Representing Alaska U S Chamber of Commerce July 20 2020 Press Release International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re election Dan Sullivan for Alaska dansullivanforalaska com Archived from the original on August 9 2020 Retrieved August 23 2020 Anchorage Daily News editorial board October 31 2020 Sen Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska s interests Anchorage Daily News Buxton Matt August 12 2020 Before joining Democratic ticket Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U S Senate The Midnight Sun Home AL GROSS FIGHTING TO FLIP ALASKA BLUE Archived from the original on December 5 2020 Retrieved August 16 2021 Knowles Tony October 19 2020 Dr Al Gross Independent for U S Senator Mat Su Valley Frontiersman DUH PEP website duh4all org Our Endorsements DMFI PAC NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House Senate nrdcactionfund org September 3 2020 PACE Recommendations NEA Alaska Archived from the original on November 1 2020 Retrieved October 30 2020 2020 General Election Election Summary Report Official Results PDF Alaska Division of Elections Retrieved December 2 2020 Alaska Senate Election Results 2020 National Election Pool NBC News March 31 2021 Retrieved January 23 2022 Further reading editAmber Phillips October 9 2020 The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November Washingtonpost comExternal links editGovernment Documents Round Table of the American Library Association Alaska Voting amp Elections Toolkits Alaska Election Tools Deadlines Dates Rules and Links Vote org Oakland CA League of Women Voters of Alaska State affiliate of the U S League of Women Voters Alaska at Ballotpedia Official campaign websites Al Gross I for Senate John Howe AI for Senate Dan Sullivan R for Senate Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska amp oldid 1193103244, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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