2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary took place on May 3 in the U.S. state of Indiana as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary

← 2008 May 3, 2016 (2016-05-03) 2020 →

Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Home state Vermont New York Delegate count 44 39 Popular vote 335,074^[1] 303,705 Percentage 52.46% 47.54%

Election results by county. Sanders   50 – 60%   60 – 70% Clinton   50 – 60% Tie   50%

The Republican Party held their own Indiana primary on the same day. Other primaries were not held that day.

Opinion polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries

List of polls

Main article: Indiana Democratic primary, 2016 Delegate count: 83 Pledged, 9 Unpledged Winner   Bernie Sanders Primary date May 3, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other Official Primary Results May 3, 2016 Bernie Sanders 52.5% Hillary Clinton 47.5% ARG^[2] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400 April 27–28, 2016 Hillary Clinton 51% Bernie Sanders 43% Others / Undecided 6% NBC/WSJ/Marist^[3] Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 645 April 26–28, 2016 Hillary Clinton 50% Bernie Sanders 46% Others / Undecided 4% IPFW/Mike Downs Center^[4] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 April 13–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton 55% Bernie Sanders 40% Others / Undecided 5% IPFW/Downs Center^[5] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 April 18–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton 54% Bernie Sanders 41% Others / Undecided 5% CBS/YouGov^[6] Margin of error: ± 8.2% Sample size: 439 April 20–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton 49% Bernie Sanders 44% Others / Undecided 7% FOX News^[7] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 603 April 18–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton 46% Bernie Sanders 42% Others / Undecided 12% WTHR News^[8] Margin of error: ± 4.47% Sample size: 500 April 18–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton 48% Bernie Sanders 45% Others / Undecided 7%

Results

See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Indiana Democratic primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	335,074	52.46%	44	0	44
Hillary Clinton	303,705	47.54%	39	7	46
Uncommitted	—		0	2	2
Total	638,779	100%	83	9	92
Source: The Green Papers - Official Primary Results

Analysis

Sanders managed a five-percentage point upset win in Indiana, despite not leading in a single poll ahead of the primary. He won men 57-43, tied women with Clinton 50-50, beat Clinton 68-32 among voters under the age of 45, and won a resounding 59-41 victory with white voters, who made up 71% of the Democratic electorate in Indiana. He also won self-identified Independents 72-28 and won across all income levels. Clinton performed best with African Americans who she won 74-26, and older voters who she won 60-40.

Sanders performed well statewide in Indiana, winning most of the rural counties. He performed well in Marion County, winning 51-49 according to exit polls. Marion contains the state capital and largest city of Indianapolis, and the Indianapolis Suburbs which he won 56-44. Sanders won Northeast Indiana, which is anchored in Allen County by Fort Wayne. Sanders carried East Central Indiana and Northern Indiana. He carried St. Joseph County which contains South Bend and University of Notre Dame by a wide margin, likely thanks to his support from younger voters. He also won Monroe County which contains the city of Bloomington which is home to Indiana University. Sanders also won Vanderburgh County which contains Evansville as well as Vigo County which contains Terre Haute.

Clinton won Lake County in Northwest Indiana (a region she won by a narrow 51-49) which contains the heavily African American city of Gary and is a part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area, and performed well in Southern Indiana along the Ohio River with neighboring Kentucky.

References

1. The Green Papers - Official Primary Results
2. "American Research Group, Inc". Retrieved April 29, 2016.
3. (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 8, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
4. "1) Cruz Ahead in Indiana 2) Clinton Leads 3) Young Edging Stutzman but Many Yet to Decide" (PDF). Retrieved April 30, 2016.
5. "IPFW poll: Hoosiers like Clinton". Retrieved April 29, 2016.
6. "Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana". CBS News. April 24, 2016. Retrieved April 24, 2016.
7. "Fox News Poll: Indiana Presidential Primaries". Fox News. April 22, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.
8. "Exclusive WTHR/HPI Poll: Trump, Clinton have small leads in Indiana, overall tight race". WTHR News. April 22, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.