2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.^[1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.^[2]

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →

Nominee John Hickenlooper Tom Tancredo Dan Maes Party Democratic Constitution Republican Running mate Joe Garcia Pat Miller Tambor Williams Popular vote 915,436 652,376 199,792 Percentage 51.05% 36.38% 11.14%

County results Congressional district results Hickenlooper:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Tancredo:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Maes:      30–40%

Governor before election Bill Ritter Democratic Elected Governor John Hickenlooper Democratic

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver^[3][4]

Declined

• Bill Ritter, incumbent Governor^[5]
• Ken Salazar, United States Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Senator^[6]
• Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (ran for U.S. Senate)^[7]

Results

Democratic primary results^[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Hickenlooper	303,245	100.00
Total votes			303,245	100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Dan Maes, businessman^[9]
• Scott McInnis, former U.S. Representative^[10]

Declined

• John Suthers, Colorado Attorney General^[11]
• Josh Penry, State Senator^[12]
• Tom Tancredo, former U.S. Representative^[13]

Pre-primary polling and developments

While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"^[14] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"^[15] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."^[16] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

Poll source	Dates administered	Dan Maes	Scott McInnis
Public Policy Polling	August 7–8, 2010	40%	41%
Survey USA 2012-06-14 at the Wayback Machine	August 1, 2010	43%	39%
Survey USA	June 15–17, 2010	29%	57%

Results

 

Results by county:

  Maes—60–70%

  Maes—50–60%

  McInnis—50–60%

  McInnis—60–70%

  McInnis—70–80%

Republican primary results^[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dan Maes	197,629	50.66
	Republican	Scott McInnis	192,479	49.34
Total votes			390,108	100.00

Libertarian Party

Candidates

• Jaimes Brown^[17]
• Dan "Kilo" Sallis, 2008 vice presidential candidate of the Boston Tea Party^[18]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jaimes Brown	1,438	64.03
	Libertarian	Dan Sallis	808	35.98
Total votes			2,246	100.00

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

• Tom Tancredo, former Republican U.S. Representative^[19]

General election

 

Tom Tancredo supporters

Candidates

• Tom Tancredo (ACP), former Republican U.S. Representative

• Running mate: Pat Miller, former State Representative and nominee for CO-02 in 1994 and 1996

• Jaimes Brown (L)

• Running mate: Ken Wyble

• Jason R. Clark (UAF)
• Paul Fiorino (I)

• Running mate: Heather McKibbin

• John Hickenlooper (D), Mayor of Denver

• Running mate: Joe Garcia, Colorado State University-Pueblo President

• Dan Maes (R), businessman

• Running mate: Tambor Williams, former State Representative

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[20]	Likely D	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[21]	Lean D	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[22]	Tossup	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[23]	Likely D	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[24]	Tossup	October 28, 2010

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Dates administered	John Hickenlooper (D)	Dan Maes (R)	Tom Tancredo (ACP)
Public Policy Polling	October 30–31, 2010	47%	8%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	October 29, 2010	49%	5%	42%
Public Policy Polling	October 21–23, 2010	47%	5%	44%
Magellan Strategies	October 22, 2010	44%	9%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	October 15, 2010	42%	12%	38%
Rasmussen Reports	October 3, 2010	43%	16%	35%
Public Policy Polling	September 30 – October 2, 2010	47%	13%	33%
Survey USA	September 28–30, 2010	46%	15%	34%
Fox News	September 25, 2010	44%	15%	34%
CNN/Time	September 17–21, 2010	47%	21%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2010	46%	21%	25%
Rasmussen Reports	August 29, 2010	36%	24%	14%
Ipsos/Reuters	August 20–22, 2010	41%	33%	16%
		45%	45%	––
Rasmussen Reports	August 11, 2010	43%	31%	18%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–8, 2010	48%	23%	22%
		50%	38%	––
Rasmussen Reports	August 2, 2010	42%	27%	24%
Survey USA^[permanent dead link]	July 27–29, 2010	46%	24%	24%
		50%	41%	––
Rasmussen Reports	July 15, 2010	46%	43%	––
Survey USA	June 15–17, 2010	44%	45%	––
Rasmussen Reports	June 14, 2010	41%	41%	––

Results

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election^[25]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Hickenlooper	915,436	51.05%	-5.93%
	Constitution	Tom Tancredo	652,376	36.38%	+35.76%
	Republican	Dan Maes	199,792	11.14%	-29.02%
	Libertarian	Jaimes Brown	13,365	0.75%	-0.75%
	Independent	Jason R. Clark	8,601	0.48%	—
	Independent	Paul Noel Fiorino	3,492	0.19%	—
	Write-ins		86	0.00%	—
Majority			263,060	14.67%	-2.15%
Turnout			1,793,148
	Democratic hold

Aftermath

American Constitution Party gets major party status

A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.^[26][27]

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.^[28]

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

See also

• Colorado Democratic Party
• Colorado Republican Party
• American Constitution Party
• Libertarian Party of Colorado

References

1. Fender, Jessica (6 January 2010). "Ritter ends re-election bid". The Denver Post. Retrieved 28 February 2019.
2. Moore, John (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post.
3. Bartels, Lynn (2010-01-12). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
4. Kraushaar, Josh (2010-01-12). "Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
5. Wilson, Reid (2008-12-08). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". The Hill. Retrieved 2009-01-03.
6. Weisman, Jonathan (2010-01-06). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog). Retrieved 2010-01-06.
7. Bartels, Lynn (2009-09-16). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
8. "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved January 6, 2018.
9. "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
10. Fender, Jessica (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". The Denver Post. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
11. Crummy, Karen E. (2009-01-26). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
12. . Firstread.msnbc.msn.com. Archived from the original on 2009-11-12. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
13. . CBS4 Denver. 2009-11-23. Archived from the original on 2009-11-25. Retrieved 2010-01-06.
14. "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
15. "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
16. "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
17. . Lpcolorado.org. Archived from the original on 2010-07-25. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
18. "TRACER – Candidate Detail". Tracer.sos.colorado.gov. Retrieved 2010-07-26.
19. Crummy, Karen E. (2010-07-22). "Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run". The Denver Post. Retrieved 2010-07-22.
20. . Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
21. "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
22. "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
23. "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
24. . CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
25. Gessler, Scott (2010). 2010 Abstract of Votes Cast (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.
26. Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
27. Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
28. John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.

External links

• Colorado Secretary of State – Elections Division
• Colorado Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Colorado Governor from Follow the Money
• from OurCampaigns.com
• 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial General Election: Dan Maes (R) vs John Hickenlooper (D) vs Tom Tancredo (i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Colorado Governor – McInnis vs. Hickenlooper from Real Clear Politics
• Race Profile in The New York Times
• Collected news and commentary at Election 2010 at The Denver Post

Debate

• Colorado Republican Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, July 29, 2010

Official campaign websites (Archived)