2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout	70.8% 3.6^[1]
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 13 0 Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742 Percentage 53.7% 45.5%
County and Independent City Results Bush   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Kerry   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except for 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

As of the 2020 presidential election^[update], the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election. This was also the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park, would vote Republican for president. As of 2020, this is the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Florida, which remained a traditional bellwether state as Virginia transitioned from safely red to safely blue; as well as the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Missouri or Ohio, two Midwestern bellwether states that were either in the process of becoming more safely red or would soon begin doing so.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Fairfax County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

• Virginia Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Solid R
Associated Press	Lean R
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Lean R
Newsweek	Lean R
New York Times	Lean R
Rasmussen Reports	Likely R
Research 2000	Solid R
Washington Post	Likely R
Washington Times	Solid R
Zogby International	Likely R
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386.^[4] Kerry raised $6,125,128.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.^[6][7]

Analysis

For about 80 years after the Civil War, Virginia was, like most other former Confederate states, a reliably Democratic state at the presidential level. After the passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s and the ensuing "Southern strategy," Virginia turned strongly Republican at the presidential level, being the only former Confederate state to vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976. Much of the Republican strength in the state was based in the large and growing Richmond- and Washington, D.C.-area suburbs of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Fairfax Counties. This trend would start to change in the 2000s; although Bush was widely expected to carry Virginia and did prevail in the state by over 8%, this election set the stage for the state to become more competitive on the presidential level in the future.

Though the state was uncontested by both campaigns, ^[8] John Kerry became the first Democrat since 1964 to carry Fairfax County, long a key Republican stronghold in the state and the largest county in the state. However, Bush managed to keep the margin in Virginia roughly unchanged with respect to 2000 by making further inroads in rural Virginia, particularly in southwest Virginia, a heavily unionized region that had traditionally been one of the Democratic strongholds in the state. Bush became the first Republican to carry Russell County since 1972 and expanded his margin by over 10% in Washington, Scott, Wise, Lee, and Smyth Counties. These countervailing trends would continue in subsequent elections, with Democrats expanding their support in Fairfax County while Republicans showed increasing support in rural Virginia.

Results

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004^[9]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (inc.)	Dick Cheney	1,716,959	53.73%	13
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,454,742	45.53%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	11,032	0.35%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	10,161	0.32%	0
	Independent (Write-in)	Ralph Nader (Write-in)	Peter Camejo	2,393	0.07%	0
	Green (Write-in)	David Cobb (Write-in)	Pat LaMarche	104	<0.01%	0
	Write-ins		-	24	<0.01%	0
Totals				3,195,415	100.00%	13
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					57.2%	—

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City	Kerry %	Kerry #	Bush %	Bush #	Other %	Other #
Accomack	41.3%	5,518	57.8%	7,726	0.8%	112
Albemarle	50.5%	22,088	48.5%	21,189	1.0%	449
Alleghany	44.5%	3,203	55.1%	3,962	0.4%	30
Amelia	34.5%	1,862	64.8%	3,499	0.7%	36
Amherst	38.3%	4,866	61.1%	7,758	0.6%	71
Appomattox	32.9%	2,191	65.6%	4,366	1.5%	98
Arlington	67.6%	63,987	31.3%	29,635	1.1%	1,028
Augusta	23.6%	7,019	74.4%	22,100	2.0%	585
Bath	36.3%	828	62.8%	1,432	1.0%	22
Bedford	29.0%	9,102	69.8%	21,925	1.2%	377
Bland	29.5%	846	68.5%	1,962	2.0%	57
Botetourt	30.4%	4,801	68.8%	10,865	0.8%	131
Brunswick	58.6%	4,062	41.2%	2,852	0.2%	12
Buchanan	53.7%	5,275	45.9%	4,507	0.5%	47
Buckingham	46.3%	2,789	52.8%	3,185	0.9%	53
Campbell	29.8%	6,862	69.1%	15,891	1.1%	244
Caroline	49.0%	4,878	50.2%	4,999	0.8%	77
Carroll	32.1%	3,888	67.4%	8,173	0.6%	67
Charles City	62.7%	2,155	36.5%	1,254	0.9%	30
Charlotte	40.9%	2,223	58.2%	3,166	0.9%	49
Chesterfield	36.9%	49,346	62.6%	83,745	0.5%	723
Clarke	41.5%	2,699	57.5%	3,741	1.0%	65
Craig	34.4%	901	65.1%	1,706	0.5%	14
Culpeper	35.1%	5,476	64.2%	10,026	0.7%	103
Cumberland	41.7%	1,721	57.6%	2,377	0.7%	28
Dickenson	50.8%	3,761	48.5%	3,591	0.7%	54
Dinwiddie	42.2%	4,569	57.1%	6,193	0.7%	77
Essex	46.2%	2,007	53.0%	2,304	0.8%	33
Fairfax	53.2%	245,671	45.9%	211,980	0.8%	3,728
Fauquier	35.8%	10,712	63.6%	19,011	0.6%	192
Floyd	36.9%	2,488	61.8%	4,162	1.2%	84
Fluvanna	40.3%	4,415	58.9%	6,458	0.8%	84
Franklin	36.0%	8,002	63.2%	14,048	0.8%	173
Frederick	31.0%	8,853	67.9%	19,386	1.1%	301
Giles	40.6%	3,047	57.6%	4,320	1.7%	131
Gloucester	31.3%	5,105	67.9%	11,084	0.9%	144
Goochland	34.7%	3,583	64.5%	6,668	0.8%	87
Grayson	34.0%	2,430	65.2%	4,655	0.7%	52
Greene	32.3%	2,240	65.9%	4,570	1.9%	129
Greensville	59.0%	2,514	40.7%	1,732	0.3%	12
Halifax	42.4%	6,220	57.1%	8,363	0.5%	73
Hanover	28.1%	13,941	71.4%	35,404	0.5%	266
Henrico	45.6%	60,864	53.8%	71,809	0.6%	745
Henry	42.0%	9,851	56.9%	13,358	1.1%	249
Highland	34.3%	522	64.6%	982	1.1%	16
Isle of Wight	37.0%	5,871	62.6%	9,929	0.4%	71
James City	38.4%	11,934	60.9%	18,949	0.7%	207
King and Queen	45.8%	1,506	52.9%	1,737	1.3%	43
King George	34.6%	2,739	64.7%	5,124	0.7%	58
King William	35.4%	2,436	64.0%	4,397	0.6%	39
Lancaster	39.8%	2,477	59.8%	3,724	0.5%	29
Lee	41.0%	4,005	58.0%	5,664	1.0%	101
Loudoun	43.6%	47,271	55.7%	60,382	0.7%	777
Louisa	40.2%	4,844	58.9%	7,083	0.9%	108
Lunenburg	45.0%	2,362	54.5%	2,858	0.5%	25
Madison	37.7%	2,176	61.6%	3,556	0.7%	40
Mathews	31.0%	1,589	68.2%	3,497	0.8%	43
Mecklenburg	41.4%	5,293	57.3%	7,319	1.3%	168
Middlesex	35.6%	1,914	62.0%	3,336	2.4%	127
Montgomery	44.8%	14,128	54.2%	17,070	1.0%	317
Nelson	49.6%	3,543	49.6%	3,539	0.8%	57
New Kent	30.7%	2,443	68.1%	5,414	1.1%	89
Northampton	50.5%	2,775	48.5%	2,669	1.0%	55
Northumberland	39.8%	2,548	59.8%	3,832	0.5%	29
Nottoway	43.7%	2,635	54.8%	3,303	1.5%	92
Orange	38.8%	5,015	59.9%	7,749	1.3%	164
Page	34.6%	3,324	64.8%	6,221	0.6%	58
Patrick	31.3%	2,572	67.0%	5,507	1.7%	136
Pittsylvania	33.8%	9,274	64.5%	17,673	1.7%	470
Powhatan	25.6%	3,112	73.6%	8,955	0.8%	96
Prince Edward	49.6%	3,632	48.8%	3,571	1.5%	113
Prince George	38.2%	5,066	61.3%	8,131	0.4%	57
Prince William	46.4%	61,271	52.8%	69,776	0.8%	1,016
Pulaski	37.3%	5,310	61.5%	8,769	1.2%	172
Rappahannock	45.4%	1,837	53.6%	2,172	1.0%	41
Richmond	37.0%	1,243	61.9%	2,082	1.1%	36
Roanoke	34.2%	16,082	65.1%	30,596	0.6%	295
Rockbridge	39.5%	3,627	58.9%	5,412	1.5%	142
Rockingham	24.9%	7,273	74.4%	21,737	0.7%	206
Russell	45.2%	5,167	53.2%	6,077	1.6%	179
Scott	33.4%	3,324	65.0%	6,479	1.6%	164
Shenandoah	30.2%	5,186	68.9%	11,820	0.8%	140
Smyth	33.6%	4,143	64.2%	7,906	2.2%	270
Southampton	45.8%	3,431	53.6%	4,018	0.6%	43
Spotsylvania	36.6%	16,623	62.8%	28,527	0.6%	295
Stafford	37.4%	17,208	62.0%	28,500	0.6%	278
Surry	55.5%	1,954	43.8%	1,543	0.7%	25
Sussex	55.7%	2,420	43.5%	1,890	0.8%	35
Tazewell	41.1%	7,184	57.4%	10,039	1.5%	257
Warren	37.3%	5,241	61.1%	8,600	1.6%	227
Washington	32.6%	7,339	65.5%	14,749	1.9%	426
Westmoreland	49.2%	3,370	50.1%	3,433	0.7%	45
Wise	40.5%	5,802	58.2%	8,330	1.3%	180
Wythe	31.0%	3,581	68.5%	7,911	0.5%	62
York	34.4%	10,276	64.9%	19,396	0.7%	208
Alexandria	66.8%	41,116	32.3%	19,844	0.9%	555
Bedford	41.0%	1,042	57.9%	1,472	1.1%	28
Bristol	35.7%	2,400	63.6%	4,275	0.7%	49
Buena Vista	39.2%	936	59.3%	1,417	1.5%	36
Charlottesville	71.8%	11,088	27.0%	4,172	1.2%	190
Chesapeake	42.3%	38,744	57.1%	52,283	0.6%	514
Colonial Heights	25.0%	2,061	74.5%	6,129	0.5%	41
Covington	51.2%	1,179	48.0%	1,104	0.8%	18
Danville	49.4%	9,436	49.2%	9,399	1.4%	277
Emporia	56.1%	1,247	43.7%	970	0.2%	4
Fairfax	51.2%	5,395	47.8%	5,045	1.0%	106
Falls Church	64.7%	3,944	34.0%	2,074	1.3%	80
Franklin	54.0%	1,910	45.6%	1,613	0.4%	13
Fredericksburg	54.2%	4,085	44.9%	3,390	0.9%	67
Galax	42.3%	987	57.2%	1,336	0.5%	12
Hampton	57.4%	32,016	42.0%	23,399	0.6%	326
Harrisonburg	42.8%	4,726	55.9%	6,165	1.3%	139
Hopewell	45.0%	3,573	53.6%	4,251	1.4%	112
Lexington	57.0%	1,340	41.8%	982	1.1%	27
Lynchburg	44.5%	11,727	54.7%	14,400	0.8%	213
Manassas	43.1%	5,562	56.2%	7,257	0.7%	84
Manassas Park	45.0%	1,498	54.2%	1,807	0.8%	27
Martinsville	54.2%	3,036	45.3%	2,538	0.5%	29
Newport News	52.0%	35,319	47.4%	32,208	0.6%	425
Norfolk	61.7%	43,518	37.4%	26,401	0.9%	651
Norton	48.2%	725	51.1%	768	0.7%	11
Petersburg	81.0%	9,682	18.7%	2,238	0.2%	29
Poquoson	22.0%	1,424	77.2%	5,004	0.8%	52
Portsmouth	61.0%	24,112	38.5%	15,212	0.5%	210
Radford	46.3%	2,244	52.9%	2,564	0.8%	37
Richmond	70.2%	52,167	29.1%	21,637	0.7%	521
Roanoke	52.4%	18,862	46.3%	16,661	1.3%	477
Salem	37.0%	4,254	62.0%	7,115	1.0%	115
Staunton	39.0%	3,756	60.3%	5,805	0.7%	68
Suffolk	47.3%	15,233	52.1%	16,763	0.6%	193
Virginia Beach	40.2%	70,666	59.1%	103,752	0.7%	1,269
Waynesboro	35.1%	2,792	63.9%	5,092	1.0%	79
Williamsburg	51.3%	2,216	47.8%	2,064	0.9%	40
Winchester	42.5%	3,967	56.5%	5,283	1.0%	93

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Caroline (largest municipality: Bowling Green)
• Russell (largest municipality: Lebanon)
• Southampton (largest municipality: Courtland)
• Norton (independent city)
• Suffolk (independent city)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Albemarle (largest municipality: Scottsville)
• Fairfax (largest municipality: Herndon)
• Nelson (largest municipality: Nellysford)
• Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
• Danville (independent city)
• Fairfax (independent city)
• Williamsburg (independent city)

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[10]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	60%	39%	Jo Ann Davis
2nd	58%	42%	Thelma Drake
3rd	33%	66%	Robert C. Scott
4th	57%	43%	Randy Forbes
5th	56%	43%	Virgil Goode
6th	63%	36%	Bob Goodlatte
7th	61%	38%	Eric Cantor
8th	35%	64%	Jim Moran
9th	60%	39%	Rick Boucher
10th	55%	44%	Frank Wolf
11th	50%	49%	Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
2. Loretta H. Tate
3. Theodore C. Brown
4. Woodrow Harris
5. Keith C. Drake
6. Wendell S. Walker
7. Peter E. Broadbent
8. Sean Michael Spicer
9. Lloyd C. Martin
10. Dorothy L. Simpson
11. Carlton John Davis
12. Charles E. Dane
13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

1. . Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on 2018-10-18. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
2. "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". www.dcpoliticalreport.com. 29 October 2004. Archived from the original on 29 July 2012. Retrieved 26 January 2022.
3. "2004 Presidential Election Polls". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Election.
4. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
5. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
6. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
7. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
8. Sabato, Larry J. "Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He? – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved 2021-11-08.
9. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004" (PDF).
10. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved 26 July 2017.