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Tendency of the rate of profit to fall

The tendency of the rate of profit to fall (TRPF) is a theory in the crisis theory of political economy, according to which the rate of profit—the ratio of the profit to the amount of invested capital—decreases over time. This hypothesis gained additional prominence from its discussion by Karl Marx in Chapter 13 of Capital, Volume III,[1] but economists as diverse as Adam Smith,[2] John Stuart Mill,[3] David Ricardo[4] and William Stanley Jevons[5] referred explicitly to the TRPF as an empirical phenomenon that demanded further theoretical explanation, although they differed on the reasons why the TRPF should necessarily occur.[6]

Geoffrey Hodgson stated that the theory of the TRPF "has been regarded, by most Marxists, as the backbone of revolutionary Marxism. According to this view, its refutation or removal would lead to reformism in theory and practice".[7] Stephen Cullenberg stated that the TRPF "remains one of the most important and highly debated issues of all of economics" because it raises "the fundamental question of whether, as capitalism grows, this very process of growth will undermine its conditions of existence and thereby engender periodic or secular crises."[8]

Causal explanations edit

Karl Marx edit

In Marx's critique of political economy, the value of a commodity is the medium amount of labour that is socially necessary to produce that commodity. Marx argued that technological innovation enabled more efficient means of production. In the short run, physical productivity would increase as a result, allowing the early adopting capitalists to produce greater use values (i.e., physical output). In the long run, if demand remains the same and the more productive methods are adopted across the entire economy, the amount of labour required (as a ratio to capital, i.e. the organic composition of capital) would decrease. Now, assuming value is tied to the amount of labor necessary, the value of the physical output would decrease relative to the value of production capital invested. In response, the average rate of industrial profit would therefore tend to decline in the longer term.

In the “unhindered” advance of capitalist production lurks a threat to capitalism that is much graver than crises. It is the threat of the constant fall of the rate of profit, resulting not from the contradiction between production and exchange, but from the growth of the productivity of labor itself.

Rosa Luxemburg, in her 1899 pamphlet Social Reform or Revolution?

It declined in the long run, Marx argued, paradoxically not because productivity decreased, but instead because it increased, with the aid of a bigger investment in equipment and materials.[9]

The central idea that Marx had was that overall technological progress has a long-term "labor-saving bias", and that the overall long-term effect of saving labor time in producing commodities with the aid of more and more machinery had to be a falling rate of profit on production capital, quite regardless of market fluctuations or financial constructions.[10]

Countertendencies edit

Marx regarded the TRPF as a general tendency in the development of the capitalist mode of production. Marx maintained that it was only a tendency, and that there are also "counteracting factors" operating which had to be studied as well. The counteracting factors were factors that would normally raise the rate of profit. In his draft manuscript edited by Friedrich Engels, Marx cited six of them:[11]

  • More intense exploitation of labor (raising the rate of exploitation of workers).
  • Reduction of wages below the value of labor power (the immiseration thesis).
  • Cheapening the elements of constant capital by various means.
  • The growth of a relative surplus population (the reserve army of labor) which remained unemployed.
  • Foreign trade reducing the cost of industrial inputs and consumer goods.
  • The increase in the use of share capital by joint-stock companies, which devolves part of the costs of using capital in production on others.[12]

Nevertheless, Marx thought the countervailing tendencies ultimately could not prevent the average rate of profit in industries from falling; the tendency was intrinsic to the capitalist mode of production.[13] In the end, none of the conceivable counteracting factors could stem the tendency toward falling profits from production.

Capital stock growth edit

In Adam Smith's TRPF theory, the falling tendency results from the growth of capital which is accompanied by increased competition. The growth of capital stock itself would drive down the average rate of profit.[14]

Other influences edit

There could also be several other factors involved in profitability which Marx and others did not discuss in detail,[15] including:

  • Reductions in the turnover time of industrial capital generally (and especially fixed capital investment).[16]
  • Accelerated depreciation and faster throughput.[17]
  • The level of price inflation for different types of goods and services.[18]
  • Taxes, levies, subsidies and credit policies of governments, interest and rent costs.[19]
  • Capital investment into areas of (previously) non-capitalist production, where a lower organic composition of capital prevailed.[20]
  • Military wars or military spending causing capital assets to be inoperative or destroyed, or spurring war production (see permanent arms economy).[21]
  • Demographic factors.[22]
  • Advances in technology and technological revolutions which rapidly reduce input costs.[23]
  • Particularly in the era of globalization, the national and international freight rate (shipping, trucking, railfreight, airfreight).
  • Substituted natural resource inputs, or marginal increased cost of non-substituted natural resource inputs.[24]
  • Consolidation of mature industries into an oligarchy of survivors.[25] Mature industries do not attract new capital because of low returns.[26] Mature companies with large amounts of capital invested and brand recognition can also try to block new competitors in their markets.[27] See also secular stagnation theory.
  • The use of credit instruments to reduce capital costs for new production.

The scholarly controversy about the TRPF among Marxists and non-Marxists has continued for a hundred years.[28] There exist nowadays several thousands of academic publications on the TRPF worldwide. No available book provides an exposition of all the different arguments that have been made. Professor Michael C. Howard [27] stated that "The connection between profit and economic theory is an intimate one. (...) However, a generally accepted theory of profit has not emerged at any stage in the history of economics... theoretical controversies remain intense."[29]

Dispute over existence edit

Okishio's theorem edit

Japanese economist Nobuo Okishio argued in 1961, "if the newly introduced technique satisfies the cost criterion [i.e. if it reduces unit costs, given current prices] and the rate of real wage remains constant", then the rate of profit would increase.[30]

Assuming constant real wages, technical change would lower the production cost per unit, thereby raising the innovator's rate of profit. The price of output would fall, and this would cause the other capitalists' costs to fall also. The new (equilibrium) rate of profit would therefore have to rise. By implication, the rate of profit could, in that case, fall if real wages rose in response to higher productivity, squeezing profits.

David Ricardo also claimed that a fall in the average rate of profit could ordinarily be brought about only by rising wages (one other scenario could be, that foreign competition would drive down the local market prices for outputs, causing falling profits).

Criticism to Okishio's Theorem edit

John E. Roemer criticized the absence of fixed capital in Okishio's model, and therefore modified Okishio's model, to include the effect of fixed capital. He concluded though that:

"... there is no hope for producing a falling rate of profit theory in a competitive, equilibrium environment with a constant real wage... this does not mean... that there cannot exist a theory of a falling rate of profit in capitalist economies. One must, however, relax some of the assumptions of the stark models discussed here, to achieve such a falling rate of profit theory."[31]

It is also possible to construct an alternative Okishio-type model, in which the rising cost of land rents (or property rents) lowers the industrial rate of profit.[32]

Michael Heinrich edit

 
Heinrich in June 2018

Heinrich calls into question Marxist theories giving a central place to the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, as Marx himself neglected to include the argument in his published theoretical work.[33] And at the level of the reasoning of the argument, the mathematician Heinrich demonstrates that "a long-lasting tendency for the rate of profit to fall cannot be substantiated at the general level" with the argument we're given. [34]: 153  In order to safely deduce a fall in profit as a general tendency, Marx's argument requires the presumption that the rate of surplus-value grows faster than the ratio of capital to value, which cannot be mathematically demonstrated from the concepts with which Marx is working. While the general direction of movement of both quantities may be known—both the rate of relative surplus-value, and the ratio of capital to value, are taken in ordinary capitalist conditions to increase— neither can grow without limit, and easy conclusions about their comparative rates of growth are not forthcoming. Marx, Heinrich argues, later became cognisant of this difficulty. Over a decade after he wrote the manuscript that became. in Engels' edition, the third volume of Capital, Marx composed a mathematical manuscript where he deals at length with the case of rising profit-rates under an increasing value-composition of capital.[33]

Along these lines, Heinrich challenges the identification of Marx's theories of crisis with the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall, a reading he attributes principally to Engels having edited the third volume of Capital so as to condense all the fragmentary discussion of crisis under the chapter title "Development of the Law's Internal Contradictions", suggesting all crisis for Marx flows from declining profit rates.[33] Instead, Heinrich suggests we ought to follow the direction of Marx's remarks on the role of crisis in mediating breakdowns of relationships between production and consumption, and extend these arguments through more careful attention to a theory of money and credit. Further, Heinrich is sceptical of the suggestion that crisis for Marx necessarily begets collapse, arguing that the collapse theory "has historically always had an excusatory function: regardless of how bad contemporary defeats were, the opponent's end was a certainty". Heinrich argues that such a theory is not found in Marx beyond a possible trace of one in the Grundrisse, one which is not taken up in Marx's later work. [34]: 176–178 

Competition edit

David Ricardo, interpreting Adam Smith's falling rate of profit theory to be that increased competition drives down the average rate of profit, argued that competition could only level out differences in profit rates on investments in production, but not lower the general profit rate (the grand-average profit rate) as a whole.[35] Apart from a few exceptional cases, Ricardo claimed, the average rate of profit could only fall if wages rose.[36]

In Capital, Karl Marx criticized Ricardo's idea. Marx argued that, instead, the tendency of the rate of profit to fall is "an expression peculiar to the capitalist mode of production of the progressive development of the social productivity of labor".[37] Marx never denied that profits could contingently fall for all kinds of reasons,[37] but he thought there was also a structural reason for the TRPF, regardless of current market fluctuations.

Productivity edit

By raising productivity, labor-saving technologies can increase the average industrial rate of profit rather than lowering it, insofar as fewer workers can produce vastly more output at a lower cost, enabling more sales in less time.[38] Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz stated: "Marx’s own proof of his law of the falling rate of profit errs principally in disregarding the mathematical relationship between the productivity of labour and the rate of surplus value."[39] Jürgen Habermas argued in 1973–74 that the TRPF might have existed in 19th century liberal capitalism, but no longer existed in late capitalism, because of the expansion of "reflexive labor" ("labor applied to itself with the aim of increasing the productivity of labor").[40] Michael Heinrich has also argued that Marx did not adequately demonstrate that the rate of profit would fall when increases in productivity are taken into account.[41]

Contingency edit

How exactly the average industrial rate of profit will evolve is either uncertain and unpredictable, or it is historically contingent; it all depends on the specific configuration of costs, sales and profit margins obtainable in fluctuating markets with given technologies.[42] This "indeterminacy" criticism revolves around the idea that technological change could have many different and contradictory effects. It could reduce costs, or it could increase unemployment; it could be labor-saving, or it could be capital-saving. Therefore, so the argument goes, it is impossible to infer definitely a theoretical principle that a falling rate of profit must always and inevitably result from an increase in productivity.

Perhaps the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall might be true in an abstract model, based on certain assumptions, but in reality no substantive, long-run empirical predictions can be made[?]. In addition, profitability itself can be influenced by an enormous array of different factors, going far beyond those which Marx specified[?]. So there are tendencies and counter-tendencies operating simultaneously, and no particular empirical result necessarily and always follows from them[?].

Labor theory of value edit

Steve Keen argues that if you assume the labor theory of value is wrong, then this obviates the bulk of the critique. Keen suggests that the TRPF was based on the idea that only labor can create new value (following the labor theory of value), and that there was a tendency over time for ratio of capital to labor (in value terms) to rise. If surplus can be produced by all production inputs, then he believes there is no reason why an increase in the ratio of capital to labor inputs should cause the overall rate of surplus to decline.[43]

Eugen Böhm von Bawerk[44] and his critic Ladislaus Bortkiewicz[45] (himself influenced by Vladimir Karpovich Dmitriev[46]) claimed that Marx's argument about the distribution of profits from newly produced surplus value is mathematically faulty.[47] This gave rise to a lengthy academic controversy.[48][49][50][51][52][53] Critics claimed that Marx failed to reconcile the law of value with the reality of the distribution of capital and profits, a problem that had already preoccupied David Ricardo – who himself inherited the problem from Adam Smith, yet failed to solve it.[54]

Marx was already aware of this theoretical problem when he wrote The Poverty of Philosophy (1847).[55] It gets a mention again in the Grundrisse (1858).[56] At the end of chapter 1 of his A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy (1859), he referred to it, and announced his intention to solve it.[57] In Theories of Surplus Value (1862–1863), he discusses the problem very clearly.[58] His first attempt at a solution occurs in a letter to Engels, dated 2 August 1862.[59] In Capital, Volume I (1867)[60] he noted that "many intermediate terms" were still needed in his progressing narrative, to arrive at the answer. Engels suggested that Marx had indeed solved the problem in the posthumously published Capital, Volume III, but critics alleged Marx never delivered a credible or definitive solution.

Specifically, critics claimed that Marx failed to prove that average labour requirements are the real regulator of product-prices within capitalist production, since Marx failed to demonstrate what exactly the causal or quantitative connection was between the two. As a corollary, Marx's theory of the TRPF was undermined as well, since it was based on a necessary long-term evolution of value-proportions between the composition of production capital and the yield of production capital.

Empirical research edit

Before 1970 edit

In the 1870s, Marx certainly wanted to test his theory of economic crises and profit-making econometrically,[61] but adequate macroeconomic statistical data and mathematical tools did not exist to do so.[62] Such scientific resources began to exist only half a century later.[63]

In 1894, Friedrich Engels did mention the research of the émigré socialist Georg Christian Stiebeling, who compared profit, income, capital and output data in the U.S. census reports of 1870 and 1880, but Engels claimed that Stiebeling explained the results "in a completely false way" (Stiebeling's defence against Engels's criticism included two open letters submitted to the New Yorker Volkszeitung and Die Neue Zeit).[64] Stiebeling's analysis represented "almost certainly the first systematic use of statistical sources in Marxian value theory."[65]

Although Eugen Varga[66][67] and the young Charles Bettelheim[68][69] already studied the topic, and Josef Steindl began to tackle the problem in his 1952 book,[70] the first major empirical analysis of long-term trends in profitability inspired by Marx was a 1957 study by Joseph Gillman.[71] This study, reviewed by Ronald L. Meek and H. D. Dickinson,[72] was extensively criticized by Shane Mage in 1963.[73] Mage's work provided the first sophisticated disaggregate analysis of official national accounts data performed by a Marxist scholar.

After 1970 edit

There have been a number of non-Marxist empirical studies of the long-term trends in business profitability.[74]

Particularly in the late 1970s and early 1980s, there were concerns among non-Marxist economists that the profit rate could be really falling.[75]

Various efforts have been conducted since the 1970s to empirically examine the TRPF. Studies supporting or arguing in favour of it include those by Michael Roberts,[76][77] Themistoklis Kalogerakos,[78] Minqi Li,[79] John Bradford,[80] and Deenpankar Basu (2012).[81] Studies critical or contradicting the TRPF include those by Òscar Jordà,[82] Marcelo Resende,[83] and Simcha Barkai.[84] Other studies, such as those by Basu (2013),[85] Elveren,[86] Thomas Weiß[87] and Ivan Trofimov,[88] report mixed results or argue that the answer is not yet certain due to conflicting findings and issues with appropriately measuring the TRPF.

From time to time, the research units of banks and government departments produce studies of profitability in various sectors of industry.[89] The Office for National Statistics releases company profitability statistics every quarter, showing increasing profits.[90] In the UK, Ernst & Young (EY) nowadays provide a Profit Warning Stress Index for quoted companies.[91] The Share Centre publishes the Profit Watch UK Report.[92] In the US, Yardeni Research provides a briefing on S&P 500 profit margin trends, including comparisons with NIPA data.[93]

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ It is also referred to by Marx as the "law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall" (LTRPF). As explained in the article, there are disputes about whether there is such a law or not. Other terms used include "the falling rate of profit" (FROP), the "falling tendency of the rate of profit" (FTRP), "decline of the rate of profit" (DROP), and the "tendential fall of the rate of profit" (TFRP). The average rate of profit on production capital is usually written as r = S/(C+V).
  2. ^ Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, Chapter 9. See also Philip Mirowski, "Adam Smith, Empiricism, and the Rate of Profit in Eighteenth-Century England." History of Political Economy, Vol. 14, No. 2, Summer 1982, pp. 178–198.
  3. ^ John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy (1848), Book 4, Chapter 4. Bela A. Balassa, "Karl Marx and John Stuart Mill." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Bd. 83 (1959), pp. 147–165.
  4. ^ David Ricardo, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, Chapter 6. Maurice Dobb, "The Sraffa system and critique of the neoclassical theory of distribution." In : E.K. Hunt & Jesse G. Schwartz, A Critique of Economic Theory. Penguin, 1972, p. 211–213.
  5. ^ W. Stanley Jevons (1871), The Theory of Political Economy. Harmondsworth, Penguin Books, 1970, pp. 243–244.
  6. ^ Aspromourgos, Tony, "Profits", in: James D. Wright (ed.), International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2015, 2nd edition, Vol. 19, pp. 111–116.
  7. ^ Geoffrey M. Hodgson, After Marx and Sraffa. Essays in political economy. New York: St Martin's Press, 1991, p.28.
  8. ^ Stephen Cullenberg, The Falling Rate of Profit: Recasting the Marxian Debate. London: Pluto Press, 1994, p.1.
  9. ^ Karl Marx, Capital, vol. 3, edited by Friedrich Engels. New York: International Publishers, 1967 (orig. ed. 1894). Chapter 2, "The Rate of Profit", and chapter 13, "The Law as Such". John Weeks, Capital and exploitation, chapter 8. Princeton University Press, 1980).
  10. ^ Ernest Mandel, "Economics", in: David McLellan (ed.), Marx – the First 100 Years. Fontana, 1983.
  11. ^ Karl Marx, Capital, Volume III, Penguin ed. 1981, p. 339f.
  12. ^ Marx regarded dividends as an ex post distribution from gross profit revenue (a fraction of surplus value), but he acknowledged that the specific pattern of distribution of portfolio capital between different types of placements could affect the overall average rate of return on capital investments. The overall yield on share capital is typically higher than the rate of interest, but lower than the gross profit rate on total enterprise capital (the latter rate which includes both distributed and undistributed profits, and tax). Hence, the larger the proportion of distributed profits (dividends) to shareholders in total gross profit, the lower the general profit rate on capital will be – "if" share capital is considered as a separate component in the total capital assets invested, rather than as a duplication of real capital assets in the form of notional "paper" assets, or "if" the average rate of profit is calculated as the weighted mean of rates of return on different types of business investment. Obviously, the more profit is distributed to shareholders, the less is available for reinvestment in the business, unless shareholders opt to reinvest their profits in the same business. In modern times, though, a very large chunk in the total distribution of stocks is held for less than one accounting year, or, at most, for around one and a half years (this is called "the increase in portfolio (or equity) turnovers", or "the decrease in average stock holding periods"). The investors are, in this case, primarily concerned with comparative risks, and with the net capital gain they can get from short-term positive changes in stock prices, as weighed against broker's fees and likely dividend yields (often the share parcels traded are large, which lowers the transaction costs per share). See: Marx, Capital, Volume III, Penguin 1981, pp. 347–348; Ernest Mandel, "Joint-stock company", in: Tom Bottomore (ed.), A Dictionary of Marxist Thought, 2nd edition. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1991, pp. 270–273; David Hunkar, "Average Stock Holding Period on NYSE 1929 To 2016". Topforeignstocks.com, 1 October 2017. [1]
  13. ^ Karl Marx, Capital, Volume III, Penguin ed. 1981, p. 356.
  14. ^ Michael Heinrich, "Begründungsprobleme. Zur Debatte über das Marxsche “Gesetz vom tendenziellen Fall der Profitrate", in Marx-Engels-Jahrbuch 2006, Berlin: Akademie Verlag 2006, p. 50. Lefteris Tsoulfidis & Dimitris Paitaridis, "Revisiting Adam Smith's theory of the falling rate of profit". International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 39 issue 5, 2012, pp. 304–313.
  15. ^ Ernest Mandel, Late Capitalism. London: NLB, 1975.
  16. ^ Ernest Mandel, Late Capitalism. London: NLB, 1975, chapter 7.
  17. ^ Ernest Mandel, ´´Late Capitalism´´. London: NLB, 1975, chapter 7.
  18. ^ Ernest Mandel, Late Capitalism. London: NLB, 1975, chapter 13.
  19. ^ Karl Marx, Grundrisse, Penguin 1973, p. 751.
  20. ^ Marx, Capital, Volume III, Penguin 1981, p. 320. Fritz Sternberg, Der imperialismus. Berlin: Malik-Verlag, 1926; Ernest Mandel, "Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution", in: A.R. Desai (ed.), Essays on Modernization of Underdeveloped Societies, Vol. 1, 1971 (Bombay: Thacker & Co.). Reprint as: "Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution", International Socialist Review, vol. 34, No. 2 (February 1973), 6–13.
  21. ^ Ernest Mandel, Late Capitalism. London: NLB, 1975, chapter 9.
  22. ^ [2][permanent dead link] Allin Cottrell and Paul Cockshott, "Demography and the falling rate of profit". Wake Forest University & Department of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, February 2007.[3]
  23. ^ Ernest Mandel, Late Capitalism. London: NLB, 1975, chapter 6.
  24. ^ Ernest Mandel, Late Capitalism. London: NLB, 1975, p. 542, 577.
  25. ^ Josef Steindl, Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism. New York: Monthly Review Press, 1952.
  26. ^ Harris, Seymour E. (1943). Postwar Economic Problems. New York, London: McGraw-Hill Book Co. pp. 67–70<Chapter IV Secular Stagnation by Alvin Sweeny.>{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  27. ^ Ayres, Robert U. (1998). Turning Point: The end of the Growth Paradigm. London: Earthscans Publications. p. 4. ISBN 9781853834394.
  28. ^ Ernest Mandel, "Economics", in: David McLellan (ed.), Marx – the First 100 Years. Fontana, 1983; M.C. Howard and J.E. King, A history of Marxian economics (2 vols). Princeton University Press, 1989.
  29. ^ Michael Howard, Profits in economic theory. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1983, p. 3.
  30. ^ Nobuo Okishio, "Technical Change and the Rate of Profit", Kobe University Economic Review, 7, 1961, p. 92. Shalom Groll & Ze'ev Orzech, "From Marx to the Okishio theorem: a genealogy". History of Political Economy, Vol. 21, Issue 2, 1989, pp. 253–272.[4]
  31. ^ John E. Roemer, Analytical Foundations of Marxian Economic Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981, p. 132.
  32. ^ Bill Gibson & Hadi Esfahani, "Nonproduced means of production: neo-Ricardians vs. Fundamentalists". Review of Radical Political Economics, vol. 15, issue 2, summer 1983, pp. 83–105.
  33. ^ a b c Heinrich, Michael (1 April 2013). "Crisis Theory, the Law of the Tendency of the Profit Rate to Fall, and Marx's Studies in the 1870s". Monthly Review. 64 (11): 15. doi:10.14452/MR-064-11-2013-04_2. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
  34. ^ a b Heinrich, Michael (2012). An introduction to the three volumes of Karl Marx's Capital. Alexander Locascio. New York: Monthly Review Press. ISBN 978-1-58367-291-4. OCLC 812923956.
  35. ^ Francisco Verdera, "Adam Smith on the falling rate of profit: a reappraisal." Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 39, No. 1, February 1992; cf. Karl Marx, Grundrisse, Penguin 1973, p. 751.
  36. ^ Heinrich, p. 51. See David Ricardo, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. In: Piero Sraffa (ed.), The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo. Vol. I. Cambridge, 1951, pp. 289–300.
  37. ^ a b Karl Marx, Capital, Volume III, Penguin 1981, p. 319.
  38. ^ Ronald L. Meek, "The Falling Rate of Profit", in R. L. Meek, Economics and Ideology and Other Essays (London: Chapman and Hall, 1967).
  39. ^ Ladislaus Bortkiewicz, "Value and Price in the Marxian System". International Economic Papers, no 2, 1952. London: MacMillan, 1952, p. 73.
  40. ^ Julius Sensat, Habermas and Marxism: an appraisal. London: Sage, 1979, p. 61, 125f. See: Jürgen Habermas, Legitimation Crisis. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1976, p. 56 and Jürgen Habermas & Boris Frankel, "Habermas talking: an interview", Theory and society, I, 1974, pp. 37–58, at p. 50.
  41. ^ Michael Heinrich, "Crisis Theory, the Law of the Tendency of the Profit Rate to Fall, and Marx’s Studies in the 1870s", Monthly Review, Volume 64, Issue 11, April 2013.
  42. ^ Bob Rowthorn & Donald J. Harris, "The organic composition of capital and capitalist development". In: Stephen Resnick & Richard Wolff (eds.), Rethinking Marxism: Essays for Harry Magdoff & Paul Sweezy. New York: Autonomedia, 1985, p. 356.
  43. ^ Steve Keen, "Use-Value, Exchange Value, and the Demise of Marx's Labor Theory of Value", Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Volume 15, Issue 1, Spring 1993, pages 107–121
  44. ^ Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, Karl Marx and the Close of his System. London, T.F. Unwin, 1898 (various reprints).
  45. ^ Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz, "Wertrechnung und Preisrechnung im Marxschen System", in: 1906/7, Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, XXIII-1 (1906) pp. 1–50, XXV-1 (1907) pp. 10–51, XXV-2 (1907) pp. 445–488. This article was translated into English in 1952 as "Value and Price in the Marxian System", International Economic Papers, no. 2, 1952.[5] A translation of Bortkiewicz’s follow-up article "On the Correction of Marx's Fundamental Theoretical Construction in the Third Volume of Capital" (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, July 1907) is provided in Paul Sweezy (ed.), Karl Marx and the Close of his System by Eugen von Bohm Bawerk (New York: Kelley, 1949), pp. 199–221.
  46. ^ Kenji Mori, "Charasoff and Dmitriev: An Analytical Characterisation of Origins of Linear Economics". Discussion Paper No. 249. Graduate school of economics and management, Tohoku University, January 2010.[6] Eduardo Crespo and Marcus Cardoso, "The evolution of the theory of value from Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz to Charasoff" (Rio the Janeiro: Federal University of Rio the Janeiro, 2000).
  47. ^ Bruce Philp, Reduction, Rationality and Game Theory in Marxian Economics. Abingdon: Routledge, 2005, p. 42f.
  48. ^ Richard B. Day and Daniel F. Gaido, Responses to Marx's Capital from Rudolf Hilferding to Isaak Illich Rubin. Leiden: Brill, October 2017.
  49. ^ Josef Winternitz [in German] (June 1948). "Value and Prices: A Solution of the So-Called Transformation Problem". The Economic Journal. 58 (230): 276–280. doi:10.2307/2225953. JSTOR 2225953.
  50. ^ Francis Seton (June 1957). (PDF). Review of Economic Studies. 24 (3): 149–160. doi:10.2307/2296064. JSTOR 2296064. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 August 2017. Retrieved 14 June 2017.
  51. ^ Michio Morishima, Marx's Economics: A Dual Theory of Value and Growth. Cambridge University Press, 1973.
  52. ^ Michio Morishima & George Catephores, Value, exploitation and growth. London: McGraw-Hill, 1978.
  53. ^ Ian Steedman (1977). Marx after Sraffa. Humanities Press. ISBN 978-0-902308-49-7.
  54. ^ Ronald L. Meek, Smith, Marx, & After. London: Chapman & Hall, 1977, p. 98.
  55. ^ Ronald L. Meek, Smith, Marx, & After. London: Chapman & Hall, 1977, p. 99.
  56. ^ Karl Marx, Grundrisse. Penguin, 1973, p. 560f.
  57. ^ Karl Marx, A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy. Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1971.
  58. ^ Karl Marx, Theories of Surplus Value, Part 3, chapter 20 (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1971, p. 69-71.
  59. ^ Karl Marx & Frederick Engels, Letters on Capital. London, New Park, 1983, pp. 74–78.
  60. ^ Karl Marx, Capital, Volume I, Penguin 1976, p. 421.
  61. ^ Zoltan Kenessey, "Why Das Kapital remained unfinished". In: William Barber (ed.), Themes in Pre-Classical, Classical and Marxian Economics. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1991, pp. 119–133.
  62. ^ Marx, "Letter to Engels, 31 May 1873". Marx-Engels Werke Vol. 33, p. 821. English: Karl Marx & Friedrich Engels, Letters on Capital. London: New Park, 1983, p. 176 or Marx Engels Collected Works, Vol. 44, p. 504.
  63. ^ Paul Studenski, The Income of Nations: Theory, Measurement and Analysis, Past and Present. Washington Square: New York University Press, 1958.
  64. ^ Karl Marx, Capital, Volume III, Penguin 1981, p. 110. G. C. Stiebeling, Das Werthgesetz und die Profitrate. New York: John Heinrich, 1890. See the German Wikipedia article on Georg Christian Stiebeling. [7] [8]
  65. ^ M. C. Howard & J. E. King, A History of Marxian Economics, Vol. 1. Princeton University Press, 1989, p. 29.
  66. ^ Eugen Varga, The Great Crisis and its Political Consequences. London: Modern Books Limited, 1935
  67. ^ André Mommen, Stalin's Economist. The Economic Contributions of Jenö Varga. London: Routledge, 2011, chapter 7; Jelle Versieren, "Eugen Varga and the Calamity of Stalinist Economics." Critique: Journal of Socialist Theory, Volume 41 Issue 1, 31 May 2013.
  68. ^ e.g. C. Bettelheim, L'economie Allemande sous le nazisme. Un aspect de la décadence du capitalisme, Paris: P.U.F., 1946, p. 45.
  69. ^ C. Bettelheim, Bilan de l'économie française (1919–1946). Paris : P.U.F., 1947; C. Bettelheim, Revenu national, épargne et investissements chez Marx et chez Keynes. Paris: Librairie du Recueil Sirey, 1948; C. Bettelheim, "Variation du taux de profit et accroissement de la productivité du travail." Économique Appliquée. Bulletin de l'Institut de Science Économique Appliquée, N° 1–2, 1959.
  70. ^ Josef Steindl, Maturity and stagnation in American Capitalism. New York: Monthly Review Press, 1952.
  71. ^ Joseph Gillman, The Falling Rate of Profit. London, Dennis Dobson, 1957.
  72. ^ Ronald L. Meek, "The Falling Rate of Profit: Marx's Law and its Significance to Twentieth-century Capitalism, by Joseph M. Gillman." The Economic Journal, Vol. 69 No. 273, March 1959, pp. 132–134. H. D. Dickinson, "Falling rate of profit". New Left Review I/1, January–February 1960.[9] Cf. Howard C Petith; "Meek, Dickinson and Marx's falling rate of profit". Barcelona : Economics Department discussion paper, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 1997.[10]
  73. ^ Shane Mage, The Law of the Falling Tendency of the Rate of Profit; Its Place in the Marxian Theoretical System and Relevance to the US Economy. Phd Thesis, Columbia University, 1963.
  74. ^ For example, J. L. Walker, "Estimating companies’ rate of return on capital employed". Economic Trends (London: HMSO), November 1974; T.P. Hill, Profits and rates of return. Paris: OECD, 1979; James H. Chan-Lee and Helen Sutch, "Profits and rates of return in OECD countries", OECD Economic and Statistics Department Working Paper N°20, 1985. [11]; Daniel M. Holland (ed.) Measuring profitability and capital costs : an international study. Lexington, Mass. : Lexington Books, c1984.; Dennis C. Mueller, Profits in the Long Run. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986; Dennis C. Mueller, (ed.) The Dynamics of Company Profits: An International Comparison. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; James Poterba, "The rate of return to corporate capital and factor shares: new estimates using revised national income accounts and capital stock data". Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 48, June 1998, pp. 211–246; Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, The Millennium Book, A century of Investment Returns. London: London Business School and ABN AMRO, 2000; Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press 2002; Paul Gomme et al., "The return to capital and the business cycle." Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 14, Issue 2, April 2011, pp. 262–278; Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook. Zurich: Credit Suisse Research Institute, 2018.
  75. ^ M. Panic & R. E. Close, "Profitability of British manufacturing industry". Lloyds Bank Review #109, July 1973, pp. 17–30; Martin Feldstein & Lawrence Summers, "Is the rate of profit falling?". Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1977; William Nordhaus, "The falling share of profits". Brookings papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 1974, pp. 169–217. (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015. Retrieved 19 August 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link). Jeffrey D. Sachs, "Wages, profits, and macroeconomic adjustment: a comparative study." [with comments by William H. Branston and Robert J. Gordon] Brookings papers of economic activity, No.2, 1979, pp. 269–319 [12]; Thomas R. Michl, "Why is the Rate of Profit Still Falling?" New York: Jerome Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper no. 7, September 1988.[13]
  76. ^ Michael Roberts, "A world rate of profit". Paper presented to AHE/IPPE/WEA Conference, Paris July 2012 [14]; Michael Roberts. "Revisiting a world rate of profit". Paper for the 2015 Conference of the Association of Heterodox Economists, Southampton Solent University, July 2015.[15]
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  91. ^ EY Profit Warning Stress Index
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  93. ^ Yardeni stock market briefing on profit margins [25] [26].


tendency, rate, profit, fall, tendency, rate, profit, fall, trpf, theory, crisis, theory, political, economy, according, which, rate, profit, ratio, profit, amount, invested, capital, decreases, over, time, this, hypothesis, gained, additional, prominence, fro. The tendency of the rate of profit to fall TRPF is a theory in the crisis theory of political economy according to which the rate of profit the ratio of the profit to the amount of invested capital decreases over time This hypothesis gained additional prominence from its discussion by Karl Marx in Chapter 13 of Capital Volume III 1 but economists as diverse as Adam Smith 2 John Stuart Mill 3 David Ricardo 4 and William Stanley Jevons 5 referred explicitly to the TRPF as an empirical phenomenon that demanded further theoretical explanation although they differed on the reasons why the TRPF should necessarily occur 6 Geoffrey Hodgson stated that the theory of the TRPF has been regarded by most Marxists as the backbone of revolutionary Marxism According to this view its refutation or removal would lead to reformism in theory and practice 7 Stephen Cullenberg stated that the TRPF remains one of the most important and highly debated issues of all of economics because it raises the fundamental question of whether as capitalism grows this very process of growth will undermine its conditions of existence and thereby engender periodic or secular crises 8 Contents 1 Causal explanations 1 1 Karl Marx 1 1 1 Countertendencies 1 2 Capital stock growth 1 3 Other influences 2 Dispute over existence 2 1 Okishio s theorem 2 1 1 Criticism to Okishio s Theorem 2 2 Michael Heinrich 2 3 Competition 2 4 Productivity 2 5 Contingency 2 6 Labor theory of value 3 Empirical research 3 1 Before 1970 3 2 After 1970 4 See also 5 ReferencesCausal explanations editKarl Marx editIn Marx s critique of political economy the value of a commodity is the medium amount of labour that is socially necessary to produce that commodity Marx argued that technological innovation enabled more efficient means of production In the short run physical productivity would increase as a result allowing the early adopting capitalists to produce greater use values i e physical output In the long run if demand remains the same and the more productive methods are adopted across the entire economy the amount of labour required as a ratio to capital i e the organic composition of capital would decrease Now assuming value is tied to the amount of labor necessary the value of the physical output would decrease relative to the value of production capital invested In response the average rate of industrial profit would therefore tend to decline in the longer term In the unhindered advance of capitalist production lurks a threat to capitalism that is much graver than crises It is the threat of the constant fall of the rate of profit resulting not from the contradiction between production and exchange but from the growth of the productivity of labor itself Rosa Luxemburg in her 1899 pamphlet Social Reform or Revolution It declined in the long run Marx argued paradoxically not because productivity decreased but instead because it increased with the aid of a bigger investment in equipment and materials 9 The central idea that Marx had was that overall technological progress has a long term labor saving bias and that the overall long term effect of saving labor time in producing commodities with the aid of more and more machinery had to be a falling rate of profit on production capital quite regardless of market fluctuations or financial constructions 10 Countertendencies edit Marx regarded the TRPF as a general tendency in the development of the capitalist mode of production Marx maintained that it was only a tendency and that there are also counteracting factors operating which had to be studied as well The counteracting factors were factors that would normally raise the rate of profit In his draft manuscript edited by Friedrich Engels Marx cited six of them 11 More intense exploitation of labor raising the rate of exploitation of workers Reduction of wages below the value of labor power the immiseration thesis Cheapening the elements of constant capital by various means The growth of a relative surplus population the reserve army of labor which remained unemployed Foreign trade reducing the cost of industrial inputs and consumer goods The increase in the use of share capital by joint stock companies which devolves part of the costs of using capital in production on others 12 Nevertheless Marx thought the countervailing tendencies ultimately could not prevent the average rate of profit in industries from falling the tendency was intrinsic to the capitalist mode of production 13 In the end none of the conceivable counteracting factors could stem the tendency toward falling profits from production Capital stock growth edit In Adam Smith s TRPF theory the falling tendency results from the growth of capital which is accompanied by increased competition The growth of capital stock itself would drive down the average rate of profit 14 Other influences edit There could also be several other factors involved in profitability which Marx and others did not discuss in detail 15 including Reductions in the turnover time of industrial capital generally and especially fixed capital investment 16 Accelerated depreciation and faster throughput 17 The level of price inflation for different types of goods and services 18 Taxes levies subsidies and credit policies of governments interest and rent costs 19 Capital investment into areas of previously non capitalist production where a lower organic composition of capital prevailed 20 Military wars or military spending causing capital assets to be inoperative or destroyed or spurring war production see permanent arms economy 21 Demographic factors 22 Advances in technology and technological revolutions which rapidly reduce input costs 23 Particularly in the era of globalization the national and international freight rate shipping trucking railfreight airfreight Substituted natural resource inputs or marginal increased cost of non substituted natural resource inputs 24 Consolidation of mature industries into an oligarchy of survivors 25 Mature industries do not attract new capital because of low returns 26 Mature companies with large amounts of capital invested and brand recognition can also try to block new competitors in their markets 27 See also secular stagnation theory The use of credit instruments to reduce capital costs for new production The scholarly controversy about the TRPF among Marxists and non Marxists has continued for a hundred years 28 There exist nowadays several thousands of academic publications on the TRPF worldwide No available book provides an exposition of all the different arguments that have been made Professor Michael C Howard 27 stated that The connection between profit and economic theory is an intimate one However a generally accepted theory of profit has not emerged at any stage in the history of economics theoretical controversies remain intense 29 Dispute over existence editOkishio s theorem edit Main article Okishio s theorem Japanese economist Nobuo Okishio argued in 1961 if the newly introduced technique satisfies the cost criterion i e if it reduces unit costs given current prices and the rate of real wage remains constant then the rate of profit would increase 30 Assuming constant real wages technical change would lower the production cost per unit thereby raising the innovator s rate of profit The price of output would fall and this would cause the other capitalists costs to fall also The new equilibrium rate of profit would therefore have to rise By implication the rate of profit could in that case fall if real wages rose in response to higher productivity squeezing profits David Ricardo also claimed that a fall in the average rate of profit could ordinarily be brought about only by rising wages one other scenario could be that foreign competition would drive down the local market prices for outputs causing falling profits Criticism to Okishio s Theorem edit John E Roemer criticized the absence of fixed capital in Okishio s model and therefore modified Okishio s model to include the effect of fixed capital He concluded though that there is no hope for producing a falling rate of profit theory in a competitive equilibrium environment with a constant real wage this does not mean that there cannot exist a theory of a falling rate of profit in capitalist economies One must however relax some of the assumptions of the stark models discussed here to achieve such a falling rate of profit theory 31 It is also possible to construct an alternative Okishio type model in which the rising cost of land rents or property rents lowers the industrial rate of profit 32 Michael Heinrich edit This section is an excerpt from Michael Heinrich Tendency of the rate of profit to fall and crisis theory edit nbsp Heinrich in June 2018 Heinrich calls into question Marxist theories giving a central place to the tendency of the rate of profit to fall as Marx himself neglected to include the argument in his published theoretical work 33 And at the level of the reasoning of the argument the mathematician Heinrich demonstrates that a long lasting tendency for the rate of profit to fall cannot be substantiated at the general level with the argument we re given 34 153 In order to safely deduce a fall in profit as a general tendency Marx s argument requires the presumption that the rate of surplus value grows faster than the ratio of capital to value which cannot be mathematically demonstrated from the concepts with which Marx is working While the general direction of movement of both quantities may be known both the rate of relative surplus value and the ratio of capital to value are taken in ordinary capitalist conditions to increase neither can grow without limit and easy conclusions about their comparative rates of growth are not forthcoming Marx Heinrich argues later became cognisant of this difficulty Over a decade after he wrote the manuscript that became in Engels edition the third volume of Capital Marx composed a mathematical manuscript where he deals at length with the case of rising profit rates under an increasing value composition of capital 33 Along these lines Heinrich challenges the identification of Marx s theories of crisis with the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall a reading he attributes principally to Engels having edited the third volume of Capital so as to condense all the fragmentary discussion of crisis under the chapter title Development of the Law s Internal Contradictions suggesting all crisis for Marx flows from declining profit rates 33 Instead Heinrich suggests we ought to follow the direction of Marx s remarks on the role of crisis in mediating breakdowns of relationships between production and consumption and extend these arguments through more careful attention to a theory of money and credit Further Heinrich is sceptical of the suggestion that crisis for Marx necessarily begets collapse arguing that the collapse theory has historically always had an excusatory function regardless of how bad contemporary defeats were the opponent s end was a certainty Heinrich argues that such a theory is not found in Marx beyond a possible trace of one in the Grundrisse one which is not taken up in Marx s later work 34 176 178 Competition edit David Ricardo interpreting Adam Smith s falling rate of profit theory to be that increased competition drives down the average rate of profit argued that competition could only level out differences in profit rates on investments in production but not lower the general profit rate the grand average profit rate as a whole 35 Apart from a few exceptional cases Ricardo claimed the average rate of profit could only fall if wages rose 36 In Capital Karl Marx criticized Ricardo s idea Marx argued that instead the tendency of the rate of profit to fall is an expression peculiar to the capitalist mode of production of the progressive development of the social productivity of labor 37 Marx never denied that profits could contingently fall for all kinds of reasons 37 but he thought there was also a structural reason for the TRPF regardless of current market fluctuations Productivity edit By raising productivity labor saving technologies can increase the average industrial rate of profit rather than lowering it insofar as fewer workers can produce vastly more output at a lower cost enabling more sales in less time 38 Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz stated Marx s own proof of his law of the falling rate of profit errs principally in disregarding the mathematical relationship between the productivity of labour and the rate of surplus value 39 Jurgen Habermas argued in 1973 74 that the TRPF might have existed in 19th century liberal capitalism but no longer existed in late capitalism because of the expansion of reflexive labor labor applied to itself with the aim of increasing the productivity of labor 40 Michael Heinrich has also argued that Marx did not adequately demonstrate that the rate of profit would fall when increases in productivity are taken into account 41 Contingency edit How exactly the average industrial rate of profit will evolve is either uncertain and unpredictable or it is historically contingent it all depends on the specific configuration of costs sales and profit margins obtainable in fluctuating markets with given technologies 42 This indeterminacy criticism revolves around the idea that technological change could have many different and contradictory effects It could reduce costs or it could increase unemployment it could be labor saving or it could be capital saving Therefore so the argument goes it is impossible to infer definitely a theoretical principle that a falling rate of profit must always and inevitably result from an increase in productivity Perhaps the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall might be true in an abstract model based on certain assumptions but in reality no substantive long run empirical predictions can be made In addition profitability itself can be influenced by an enormous array of different factors going far beyond those which Marx specified So there are tendencies and counter tendencies operating simultaneously and no particular empirical result necessarily and always follows from them Labor theory of value edit Steve Keen argues that if you assume the labor theory of value is wrong then this obviates the bulk of the critique Keen suggests that the TRPF was based on the idea that only labor can create new value following the labor theory of value and that there was a tendency over time for ratio of capital to labor in value terms to rise If surplus can be produced by all production inputs then he believes there is no reason why an increase in the ratio of capital to labor inputs should cause the overall rate of surplus to decline 43 Eugen Bohm von Bawerk 44 and his critic Ladislaus Bortkiewicz 45 himself influenced by Vladimir Karpovich Dmitriev 46 claimed that Marx s argument about the distribution of profits from newly produced surplus value is mathematically faulty 47 This gave rise to a lengthy academic controversy 48 49 50 51 52 53 Critics claimed that Marx failed to reconcile the law of value with the reality of the distribution of capital and profits a problem that had already preoccupied David Ricardo who himself inherited the problem from Adam Smith yet failed to solve it 54 Marx was already aware of this theoretical problem when he wrote The Poverty of Philosophy 1847 55 It gets a mention again in the Grundrisse 1858 56 At the end of chapter 1 of his A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy 1859 he referred to it and announced his intention to solve it 57 In Theories of Surplus Value 1862 1863 he discusses the problem very clearly 58 His first attempt at a solution occurs in a letter to Engels dated 2 August 1862 59 In Capital Volume I 1867 60 he noted that many intermediate terms were still needed in his progressing narrative to arrive at the answer Engels suggested that Marx had indeed solved the problem in the posthumously published Capital Volume III but critics alleged Marx never delivered a credible or definitive solution Specifically critics claimed that Marx failed to prove that average labour requirements are the real regulator of product prices within capitalist production since Marx failed to demonstrate what exactly the causal or quantitative connection was between the two As a corollary Marx s theory of the TRPF was undermined as well since it was based on a necessary long term evolution of value proportions between the composition of production capital and the yield of production capital Empirical research editBefore 1970 edit In the 1870s Marx certainly wanted to test his theory of economic crises and profit making econometrically 61 but adequate macroeconomic statistical data and mathematical tools did not exist to do so 62 Such scientific resources began to exist only half a century later 63 In 1894 Friedrich Engels did mention the research of the emigre socialist Georg Christian Stiebeling who compared profit income capital and output data in the U S census reports of 1870 and 1880 but Engels claimed that Stiebeling explained the results in a completely false way Stiebeling s defence against Engels s criticism included two open letters submitted to the New Yorker Volkszeitung and Die Neue Zeit 64 Stiebeling s analysis represented almost certainly the first systematic use of statistical sources in Marxian value theory 65 Although Eugen Varga 66 67 and the young Charles Bettelheim 68 69 already studied the topic and Josef Steindl began to tackle the problem in his 1952 book 70 the first major empirical analysis of long term trends in profitability inspired by Marx was a 1957 study by Joseph Gillman 71 This study reviewed by Ronald L Meek and H D Dickinson 72 was extensively criticized by Shane Mage in 1963 73 Mage s work provided the first sophisticated disaggregate analysis of official national accounts data performed by a Marxist scholar After 1970 edit There have been a number of non Marxist empirical studies of the long term trends in business profitability 74 Particularly in the late 1970s and early 1980s there were concerns among non Marxist economists that the profit rate could be really falling 75 Various efforts have been conducted since the 1970s to empirically examine the TRPF Studies supporting or arguing in favour of it include those by Michael Roberts 76 77 Themistoklis Kalogerakos 78 Minqi Li 79 John Bradford 80 and Deenpankar Basu 2012 81 Studies critical or contradicting the TRPF include those by Oscar Jorda 82 Marcelo Resende 83 and Simcha Barkai 84 Other studies such as those by Basu 2013 85 Elveren 86 Thomas Weiss 87 and Ivan Trofimov 88 report mixed results or argue that the answer is not yet certain due to conflicting findings and issues with appropriately measuring the TRPF From time to time the research units of banks and government departments produce studies of profitability in various sectors of industry 89 The Office for National Statistics releases company profitability statistics every quarter showing increasing profits 90 In the UK Ernst amp Young EY nowadays provide a Profit Warning Stress Index for quoted companies 91 The Share Centre publishes the Profit Watch UK Report 92 In the US Yardeni Research provides a briefing on S amp P 500 profit margin trends including comparisons with NIPA data 93 See also editCrisis theory Critique of political economy Financial crisis Internal rate of return Steady state economy the stationary state in classical economicsReferences edit It is also referred to by Marx as the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall LTRPF As explained in the article there are disputes about whether there is such a law or not Other terms used include the falling rate of profit FROP the falling tendency of the rate of profit FTRP decline of the rate of profit DROP and the tendential fall of the rate of profit TFRP The average rate of profit on production capital is usually written as r S C V Adam Smith The Wealth of Nations Chapter 9 See also Philip Mirowski Adam Smith Empiricism and the Rate of Profit in Eighteenth Century England History of Political Economy Vol 14 No 2 Summer 1982 pp 178 198 John Stuart Mill Principles of Political Economy 1848 Book 4 Chapter 4 Bela A Balassa Karl Marx and John Stuart Mill Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Bd 83 1959 pp 147 165 David Ricardo Principles of Political Economy and Taxation Chapter 6 Maurice Dobb The Sraffa system and critique of the neoclassical theory of distribution In E K Hunt amp Jesse G Schwartz A Critique of Economic Theory Penguin 1972 p 211 213 W Stanley Jevons 1871 The Theory of Political Economy Harmondsworth Penguin Books 1970 pp 243 244 Aspromourgos Tony Profits in James D Wright ed International Encyclopedia of the Social amp Behavioural Sciences Amsterdam Elsevier 2015 2nd edition Vol 19 pp 111 116 Geoffrey M Hodgson After Marx and Sraffa Essays in political economy New York St Martin s Press 1991 p 28 Stephen Cullenberg The Falling Rate of Profit Recasting the Marxian Debate London Pluto Press 1994 p 1 Karl Marx Capital vol 3 edited by Friedrich Engels New York International Publishers 1967 orig ed 1894 Chapter 2 The Rate of Profit and chapter 13 The Law as Such John Weeks Capital and exploitation chapter 8 Princeton University Press 1980 Ernest Mandel Economics in David McLellan ed Marx the First 100 Years Fontana 1983 Karl Marx Capital Volume III Penguin ed 1981 p 339f Marx regarded dividends as an ex post distribution from gross profit revenue a fraction of surplus value but he acknowledged that the specific pattern of distribution of portfolio capital between different types of placements could affect the overall average rate of return on capital investments The overall yield on share capital is typically higher than the rate of interest but lower than the gross profit rate on total enterprise capital the latter rate which includes both distributed and undistributed profits and tax Hence the larger the proportion of distributed profits dividends to shareholders in total gross profit the lower the general profit rate on capital will be if share capital is considered as a separate component in the total capital assets invested rather than as a duplication of real capital assets in the form of notional paper assets or if the average rate of profit is calculated as the weighted mean of rates of return on different types of business investment Obviously the more profit is distributed to shareholders the less is available for reinvestment in the business unless shareholders opt to reinvest their profits in the same business In modern times though a very large chunk in the total distribution of stocks is held for less than one accounting year or at most for around one and a half years this is called the increase in portfolio or equity turnovers or the decrease in average stock holding periods The investors are in this case primarily concerned with comparative risks and with the net capital gain they can get from short term positive changes in stock prices as weighed against broker s fees and likely dividend yields often the share parcels traded are large which lowers the transaction costs per share See Marx Capital Volume III Penguin 1981 pp 347 348 Ernest Mandel Joint stock company in Tom Bottomore ed A Dictionary of Marxist Thought 2nd edition Oxford Basil Blackwell 1991 pp 270 273 David Hunkar Average Stock Holding Period on NYSE 1929 To 2016 Topforeignstocks com 1 October 2017 1 Karl Marx Capital Volume III Penguin ed 1981 p 356 Michael Heinrich Begrundungsprobleme Zur Debatte uber das Marxsche Gesetz vom tendenziellen Fall der Profitrate in Marx Engels Jahrbuch 2006 Berlin Akademie Verlag 2006 p 50 Lefteris Tsoulfidis amp Dimitris Paitaridis Revisiting Adam Smith s theory of the falling rate of profit International Journal of Social Economics Vol 39 issue 5 2012 pp 304 313 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 chapter 7 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 chapter 7 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 chapter 13 Karl Marx Grundrisse Penguin 1973 p 751 Marx Capital Volume III Penguin 1981 p 320 Fritz Sternberg Der imperialismus Berlin Malik Verlag 1926 Ernest Mandel Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution in A R Desai ed Essays on Modernization of Underdeveloped Societies Vol 1 1971 Bombay Thacker amp Co Reprint as Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution International Socialist Review vol 34 No 2 February 1973 6 13 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 chapter 9 2 permanent dead link Allin Cottrell and Paul Cockshott Demography and the falling rate of profit Wake Forest University amp Department of Computing Science University of Glasgow February 2007 3 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 chapter 6 Ernest Mandel Late Capitalism London NLB 1975 p 542 577 Josef Steindl Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism New York Monthly Review Press 1952 Harris Seymour E 1943 Postwar Economic Problems New York London McGraw Hill Book Co pp 67 70 lt Chapter IV Secular Stagnation by Alvin Sweeny gt a href Template Cite book html title Template Cite book cite book a CS1 maint postscript link Ayres Robert U 1998 Turning Point The end of the Growth Paradigm London Earthscans Publications p 4 ISBN 9781853834394 Ernest Mandel Economics in David McLellan ed Marx the First 100 Years Fontana 1983 M C Howard and J E King A history of Marxian economics 2 vols Princeton University Press 1989 Michael Howard Profits in economic theory New York St Martin s Press 1983 p 3 Nobuo Okishio Technical Change and the Rate of Profit Kobe University Economic Review 7 1961 p 92 Shalom Groll amp Ze ev Orzech From Marx to the Okishio theorem a genealogy History of Political Economy Vol 21 Issue 2 1989 pp 253 272 4 John E Roemer Analytical Foundations of Marxian Economic Theory Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 p 132 Bill Gibson amp Hadi Esfahani Nonproduced means of production neo Ricardians vs Fundamentalists Review of Radical Political Economics vol 15 issue 2 summer 1983 pp 83 105 a b c Heinrich Michael 1 April 2013 Crisis Theory the Law of the Tendency of the Profit Rate to Fall and Marx s Studies in the 1870s Monthly Review 64 11 15 doi 10 14452 MR 064 11 2013 04 2 Retrieved 6 March 2023 a b Heinrich Michael 2012 An introduction to the three volumes of Karl Marx s Capital Alexander Locascio New York Monthly Review Press ISBN 978 1 58367 291 4 OCLC 812923956 Francisco Verdera Adam Smith on the falling rate of profit a reappraisal Scottish Journal of Political Economy Vol 39 No 1 February 1992 cf Karl Marx Grundrisse Penguin 1973 p 751 Heinrich p 51 See David Ricardo On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation In Piero Sraffa ed The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo Vol I Cambridge 1951 pp 289 300 a b Karl Marx Capital Volume III Penguin 1981 p 319 Ronald L Meek The Falling Rate of Profit in R L Meek Economics and Ideology and Other Essays London Chapman and Hall 1967 Ladislaus Bortkiewicz Value and Price in the Marxian System International Economic Papers no 2 1952 London MacMillan 1952 p 73 Julius Sensat Habermas and Marxism an appraisal London Sage 1979 p 61 125f See Jurgen Habermas Legitimation Crisis Cambridge Polity Press 1976 p 56 and Jurgen Habermas amp Boris Frankel Habermas talking an interview Theory and society I 1974 pp 37 58 at p 50 Michael Heinrich Crisis Theory the Law of the Tendency of the Profit Rate to Fall and Marx s Studies in the 1870s Monthly Review Volume 64 Issue 11 April 2013 Bob Rowthorn amp Donald J Harris The organic composition of capital and capitalist development In Stephen Resnick amp Richard Wolff eds Rethinking Marxism Essays for Harry Magdoff amp Paul Sweezy New York Autonomedia 1985 p 356 Steve Keen Use Value Exchange Value and the Demise of Marx s Labor Theory of Value Journal of the History of Economic Thought Volume 15 Issue 1 Spring 1993 pages 107 121 Eugen von Bohm Bawerk Karl Marx and the Close of his System London T F Unwin 1898 various reprints Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz Wertrechnung und Preisrechnung im Marxschen System in 1906 7 Archiv fur Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik XXIII 1 1906 pp 1 50 XXV 1 1907 pp 10 51 XXV 2 1907 pp 445 488 This article was translated into English in 1952 as Value and Price in the Marxian System International Economic Papers no 2 1952 5 A translation of Bortkiewicz s follow up article On the Correction of Marx s Fundamental Theoretical Construction in the Third Volume of Capital Jahrbucher fur Nationalokonomie und Statistik July 1907 is provided in Paul Sweezy ed Karl Marx and the Close of his System by Eugen von Bohm Bawerk New York Kelley 1949 pp 199 221 Kenji Mori Charasoff and Dmitriev An Analytical Characterisation of Origins of Linear Economics Discussion Paper No 249 Graduate school of economics and management Tohoku University January 2010 6 Eduardo Crespo and Marcus Cardoso The evolution of the theory of value from Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz to Charasoff Rio the Janeiro Federal University of Rio the Janeiro 2000 Bruce Philp Reduction Rationality and Game Theory in Marxian Economics Abingdon Routledge 2005 p 42f Richard B Day and Daniel F Gaido Responses to Marx s Capital from Rudolf Hilferding to Isaak Illich Rubin Leiden Brill October 2017 Josef Winternitz in German June 1948 Value and Prices A Solution of the So Called Transformation Problem The Economic Journal 58 230 276 280 doi 10 2307 2225953 JSTOR 2225953 Francis Seton June 1957 The Transformation Problem PDF Review of Economic Studies 24 3 149 160 doi 10 2307 2296064 JSTOR 2296064 Archived from the original PDF on 9 August 2017 Retrieved 14 June 2017 Michio Morishima Marx s Economics A Dual Theory of Value and Growth Cambridge University Press 1973 Michio Morishima amp George Catephores Value exploitation and growth London McGraw Hill 1978 Ian Steedman 1977 Marx after Sraffa Humanities Press ISBN 978 0 902308 49 7 Ronald L Meek Smith Marx amp After London Chapman amp Hall 1977 p 98 Ronald L Meek Smith Marx amp After London Chapman amp Hall 1977 p 99 Karl Marx Grundrisse Penguin 1973 p 560f Karl Marx A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy Moscow Progress Publishers 1971 Karl Marx Theories of Surplus Value Part 3 chapter 20 Moscow Progress Publishers 1971 p 69 71 Karl Marx amp Frederick Engels Letters on Capital London New Park 1983 pp 74 78 Karl Marx Capital Volume I Penguin 1976 p 421 Zoltan Kenessey Why Das Kapital remained unfinished In William Barber ed Themes in Pre Classical Classical and Marxian Economics Aldershot Edward Elgar 1991 pp 119 133 Marx Letter to Engels 31 May 1873 Marx Engels Werke Vol 33 p 821 English Karl Marx amp Friedrich Engels Letters on Capital London New Park 1983 p 176 or Marx Engels Collected Works Vol 44 p 504 Paul Studenski The Income of Nations Theory Measurement and Analysis Past and Present Washington Square New York University Press 1958 Karl Marx Capital Volume III Penguin 1981 p 110 G C Stiebeling Das Werthgesetz und die Profitrate New York John Heinrich 1890 See the German Wikipedia article on Georg Christian Stiebeling 7 8 M C Howard amp J E King A History of Marxian Economics Vol 1 Princeton University Press 1989 p 29 Eugen Varga The Great Crisis and its Political Consequences London Modern Books Limited 1935 Andre Mommen Stalin s Economist The Economic Contributions of Jeno Varga London Routledge 2011 chapter 7 Jelle Versieren Eugen Varga and the Calamity of Stalinist Economics Critique Journal of Socialist Theory Volume 41 Issue 1 31 May 2013 e g C Bettelheim L economie Allemande sous le nazisme Un aspect de la decadence du capitalisme Paris P U F 1946 p 45 C Bettelheim Bilan de l economie francaise 1919 1946 Paris P U F 1947 C Bettelheim Revenu national epargne et investissements chez Marx et chez Keynes Paris Librairie du Recueil Sirey 1948 C Bettelheim Variation du taux de profit et accroissement de la productivite du travail Economique Appliquee Bulletin de l Institut de Science Economique Appliquee N 1 2 1959 Josef Steindl Maturity and stagnation in American Capitalism New York Monthly Review Press 1952 Joseph Gillman The Falling Rate of Profit London Dennis Dobson 1957 Ronald L Meek The Falling Rate of Profit Marx s Law and its Significance to Twentieth century Capitalism by Joseph M Gillman The Economic Journal Vol 69 No 273 March 1959 pp 132 134 H D Dickinson Falling rate of profit New Left Review I 1 January February 1960 9 Cf Howard C Petith Meek Dickinson and Marx s falling rate of profit Barcelona Economics Department discussion paper Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona 1997 10 Shane Mage The Law of the Falling Tendency of the Rate of Profit Its Place in the Marxian Theoretical System and Relevance to the US Economy Phd Thesis Columbia University 1963 For example J L Walker Estimating companies rate of return on capital employed Economic Trends London HMSO November 1974 T P Hill Profits and rates of return Paris OECD 1979 James H Chan Lee and Helen Sutch Profits and rates of return in OECD countries OECD Economic and Statistics Department Working Paper N 20 1985 11 Daniel M Holland ed Measuring profitability and capital costs an international study Lexington Mass Lexington Books c1984 Dennis C Mueller Profits in the Long Run Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1986 Dennis C Mueller ed The Dynamics of Company Profits An International Comparison Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1990 James Poterba The rate of return to corporate capital and factor shares new estimates using revised national income accounts and capital stock data Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Vol 48 June 1998 pp 211 246 Elroy Dimson Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton The Millennium Book A century of Investment Returns London London Business School and ABN AMRO 2000 Elroy Dimson Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton Triumph of the Optimists 101 Years of Global Investment Returns Princeton N J Princeton University Press 2002 Paul Gomme et al The return to capital and the business cycle Review of Economic Dynamics Vol 14 Issue 2 April 2011 pp 262 278 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook Zurich Credit Suisse Research Institute 2018 M Panic amp R E Close Profitability of British manufacturing industry Lloyds Bank Review 109 July 1973 pp 17 30 Martin Feldstein amp Lawrence Summers Is the rate of profit falling Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 1977 William Nordhaus The falling share of profits Brookings papers on Economic Activity No 1 1974 pp 169 217 Archived copy PDF Archived from the original PDF on 24 September 2015 Retrieved 19 August 2014 a href Template Cite web html title Template Cite web cite web a CS1 maint archived copy as title link Jeffrey D Sachs Wages profits and macroeconomic adjustment a comparative study with comments by William H Branston and Robert J Gordon Brookings papers of economic activity No 2 1979 pp 269 319 12 Thomas R Michl Why is the Rate of Profit Still Falling New York Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper no 7 September 1988 13 Michael Roberts A world rate of profit Paper presented to AHE IPPE WEA Conference Paris July 2012 14 Michael Roberts Revisiting a world rate of profit Paper for the 2015 Conference of the Association of Heterodox Economists Southampton Solent University July 2015 15 Roberts Michael UK profit rate and British economic history 2015 accessed 21 03 2018 Themistoklis Kalogerakos Technology distribution and long run profit rate dynamics in the U S manufacturing sector 1948 2011 evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model VECM Master s Thesis Lund University August 2014 16 Minqi Li Feng Xiao Andong Zhu Long waves institutional changes and historical trends a study of the long term movement of the profit rate in the capitalist world economy Journal of World System Research Number 1 2007 17 John Hamilton Bradford The Falling Rate of Profit Thesis Reassessed Masters thesis University of Tennessee Knoxville 2007 18 Deenpankar Basu amp Panayiotis Manolakos Is there a tendency for the rate of profit to fall Econometric evidence for the U S 1948 2007 Review of Radical Political Economics Vol 45 2012 pp 76 91 Jorda Oscar Katharina Knoll Dmitry Kuvshinov Moritz Schularick and Alan M Taylor The rate of return on everything 1870 2015 The Quarterly Journal of Economics 134 no 3 2019 1225 1298 Marcelo Resende Profit rate in the US 1949 2007 a Markov switching assessment Applied Economics Letters Volume 25 Issue 9 2018 19 Barkai Simcha Declining labor and capital shares The Journal of Finance 2016 Basu D Vasudevan R Technology distribution and the rate of profit in the US economy understanding the current crisis Cambridge Journal of Economics 37 2013 pp 57 89 Adem Y Elveren amp Sara Hsu Military Expenditures and Profit Rates Evidence from OECD Countries Working Paper 374 Political Economy Research Institute 2015 p 3 et seq 20 Thomas Weiss The rate of return on capital in Germany an empirical study Paper presented at the 19th FMM Conference The Spectre of Stagnation Europe in the World Economy Berlin Steglitz 22 24 October 2015 21 Ivan Trofimov Profit rates in developed capitalist economies a time series investigation Munich Personal RePEc Archive 5 06 2017 accessed 19 03 2018 For example Palle S Andersen Profit shares investment and output capacity Bank of International Settlements BIS Working Papers No 12 July 1987 Luci Ellis and Kathryn Smith The global upward trend in the profit share Working paper Monetary and Economic Department Bank of International Settlements July 2007 Angela Monaghan UK companies at their most profitable since 1998 The Guardian 14 November 2014 22 The ONS quarterly data are titled Profitability of UK companies 23 EY Profit Warning Stress Index Profit Watch UK Report 24 Yardeni stock market briefing on profit margins 25 26 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Tendency of the rate of profit to fall amp oldid 1216883253, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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