The surprisingly popular answer is a wisdom of the crowd technique that taps into the expert minority opinion within a crowd.[1] For a given question, a group is asked both "What do you think the right answer is?" and "What do you think the popular answer will be?" The answer that maximizes the average difference between the "right" answer and the "popular" answer is the "surprisingly popular" answer.[2] The term "surprisingly popular" was coined in a 2017 paper published in Nature entitled "A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem", which outlined the technique.[2][3]
Suppose the question to be determined is: Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania? The two questions asked of the group, and the numbers of responses, are:
Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania?
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
What do you think most people will respond to that question?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
The difference between the answers to the right question and the popular question:
Yes: 65% − 75% = −10%
No: 35% − 25% = 10%
Thus, the No answer is surprisingly popular (10% > −10%). Because of the relatively high margin of 10%, there can be high confidence that the correct answer is No. (The capital is indeed not Philadelphia, but Harrisburg.)
An illustrative breakdown of this follows. There are four groups of people.
A – "Philadelphia is the capital, and others will agree." (This group answers yes/yes.)
B – "Philadelphia is the capital, but most others won't know that". (This group answers yes/no.)
C – "Philadelphia is not the capital, and others will agree." (This group answers no/no.)
D – "Philadelphia is not the capital, but most others won't know that." (This group answers no/yes.)
This technique causes groups A and C to be eliminated from consideration and measures the difference in size between groups B and D.
Both groups B and D think they know something others do not, but B is wrong and D is right. In cases where people feel like they have "inside" knowledge, it is more often the case that it is because they are correct and knowledgeable (group D), not because they are misled (group B).[3]
^Akst, Daniel (February 16, 2017). "The Wisdom of Even Wiser Crowds". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 16 May 2018.
^ abDizikes, Peter (January 25, 2017). "Better wisdom from crowds". MIT News. Retrieved 16 May 2018.
^ abPrelec, Dražen; Seung, H. Sebastian; McCoy, John (2017). "A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem". Nature. 541 (7638): 532–535. Bibcode:2017Natur.541..532P. doi:10.1038/nature21054. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 28128245. S2CID 4452604.
Further readingedit
Prelec, Dražen; Seung, H. Sebastian; McCoy, John (25 January 2017). "A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem". Nature. 541 (7638): 532–535. Bibcode:2017Natur.541..532P. doi:10.1038/nature21054. PMID 28128245. S2CID 4452604.
January 01, 1970
surprisingly, popular, surprisingly, popular, answer, wisdom, crowd, technique, that, taps, into, expert, minority, opinion, within, crowd, given, question, group, asked, both, what, think, right, answer, what, think, popular, answer, will, answer, that, maxim. The surprisingly popular answer is a wisdom of the crowd technique that taps into the expert minority opinion within a crowd 1 For a given question a group is asked both What do you think the right answer is and What do you think the popular answer will be The answer that maximizes the average difference between the right answer and the popular answer is the surprisingly popular answer 2 The term surprisingly popular was coined in a 2017 paper published in Nature entitled A solution to the single question crowd wisdom problem which outlined the technique 2 3 Contents 1 Example 2 See also 3 References 4 Further readingExample editSuppose the question to be determined is Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania The two questions asked of the group and the numbers of responses are Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania Yes 65 No 35 What do you think most people will respond to that question Yes 75 No 25 The difference between the answers to the right question and the popular question Yes 65 75 10 No 35 25 10 Thus the No answer is surprisingly popular 10 gt 10 Because of the relatively high margin of 10 there can be high confidence that the correct answer is No The capital is indeed not Philadelphia but Harrisburg An illustrative breakdown of this follows There are four groups of people A Philadelphia is the capital and others will agree This group answers yes yes B Philadelphia is the capital but most others won t know that This group answers yes no C Philadelphia is not the capital and others will agree This group answers no no D Philadelphia is not the capital but most others won t know that This group answers no yes This technique causes groups A and C to be eliminated from consideration and measures the difference in size between groups B and D Both groups B and D think they know something others do not but B is wrong and D is right In cases where people feel like they have inside knowledge it is more often the case that it is because they are correct and knowledgeable group D not because they are misled group B 3 See also editKeynesian beauty contest Guess 2 3 of the average Family Feud Focal point game theory also known as Schelling pointReferences edit Akst Daniel February 16 2017 The Wisdom of Even Wiser Crowds The Wall Street Journal Retrieved 16 May 2018 a b Dizikes Peter January 25 2017 Better wisdom from crowds MIT News Retrieved 16 May 2018 a b Prelec Drazen Seung H Sebastian McCoy John 2017 A solution to the single question crowd wisdom problem Nature 541 7638 532 535 Bibcode 2017Natur 541 532P doi 10 1038 nature21054 ISSN 1476 4687 PMID 28128245 S2CID 4452604 Further reading editPrelec Drazen Seung H Sebastian McCoy John 25 January 2017 A solution to the single question crowd wisdom problem Nature 541 7638 532 535 Bibcode 2017Natur 541 532P doi 10 1038 nature21054 PMID 28128245 S2CID 4452604 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Surprisingly popular amp oldid 1179418219, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
