Scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) is an American English slang term meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field, based on experience and intuition. It is similar to the slang word guesstimate, a portmanteau of guess and estimate.[1]
The slang term "SWAG" is generally thought to have originated in the US military, either the Army[2] or the Air Force.[3] Journalist Melvin J. Lasky wrote that it was first used casually by US Army General William Westmoreland during the Vietnam War. Westmoreland would sometimes reply "SWAG" to reporters' questions about American failure to neutralize the enemy.[1] Westmoreland's use of the term was affirmed in court by Colonel John Frank Stewart in November 1984 during witness testimony for the lawsuit initiated by Westmoreland against CBS for their TV documentary The Uncounted Enemy: A Vietnam Deception. On the witness stand, Stewart explained that in Vietnam, the military intelligence branch that he commanded would deliver numbers of enemy strength to Westmoreland, the numbers derived from "the SWAG principle".[4] There was laughter in the court when Stewart explained what was meant by the acronym SWAG.[4]
An earlier use of term is mentioned by linguist J. Robert Dumouchel who wrote the 1975 book, Dictionary of Development Terminology. Dumouchel says he first encountered SWAG "in the vernacular of community development" in the US in the 1960s.[2]
Regardless of its origin, the term gained greater prominence in the first half of 1999 in connection with the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Reporter John F. Harris of The Washington Post was the first person to put the term into a newspaper article. Describing the factors that led to President Bill Clinton relying on the US Air Force in Kosovo instead of employing "200,000 NATO troops",[5] Harris wrote that NATO's estimate requiring 200,000 ground troops was regarded by American war planners as politically impossible to achieve; it was quickly removed from consideration. "NATO's analysis, officials said, was not a comprehensive study. Instead, it was an initial review that some officials called a 'SWAG'—military parlance for a 'scientific wild-ass guess.'"[4]
Use
SWAG is used to describe an estimate derived from a combination of factors including past experience, general impressions, and heuristic or approximate calculations rather than an exhaustive search, proof, or rigorous calculation. The SWAG is an educated guess but is not regarded as the best or most accurate estimate.[2] The SWAG is not computed or proven rigorously, but the proponent asserts his or her own judgement suffices to rationalize the estimate; and it may, in time, be viable to produce a rigorous forecast of increased precision.[6]
Various other backronyms of SWAG have been published, including "sophisticated wild-ass guess", "Silly Wild-Ass Guess", "Semi-Wild-Ass Guess", "Stupid Wild-Ass Guess", and "Scientific Wildly Aimed Guess".[7] "Scientific" implies that the "guess" can be justified if necessary or cost-effective.[3] A guess of lesser worth may be called the "Wild-Ass Guess" or "WAG". A slightly better estimate may be called "Back of the Envelope" (BOTE).[8]
^ abLasky, Melvin J. (2005). The Language of Journalism: Profanity, obscenity & the media. The Language of Journalism. Vol. 2. Transaction Publishers. p. 106. ISBN0765802201.
^ abcSafire, William (2004). No Uncertain Terms: More Writing from the Popular "On Language" Column in The New York Times Magazine. Simon and Schuster. pp. 95–96. ISBN0743258126.
^ abcSafire, William (April 25, 1999). "The Way We Live Now: 4-25-99 - On Language; Eye Roller". The New York Times Magazine.
^Harris, John F. (April 1, 1999). "Clinton Saw No Alternative to Airstrikes". Washington Post. p. A1.
^"searchsoftwarequality.techtarget.com". Retrieved July 21, 2012.
^Black, Ron (2005). The Complete Idiot's Guide To Project Management With Microsoft Project 2003. Penguin. p. 100. ISBN1592573088.
^Tracy, John A.; Tracy, Tage (2011). Cash Flow For Dummies. For Dummies. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 164–165. ISBN1118018508.
External links
The dictionary definition of SWAG at Wiktionary
December 26, 2022
scientific, wild, guess, other, uses, swag, disambiguation, swag, american, english, slang, term, meaning, rough, estimate, made, expert, field, based, experience, intuition, similar, slang, word, guesstimate, portmanteau, guess, estimate, contents, history, a. For other uses see Swag disambiguation Scientific wild ass guess SWAG is an American English slang term meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field based on experience and intuition It is similar to the slang word guesstimate a portmanteau of guess and estimate 1 Contents 1 History 2 Use 3 See also 4 References 5 External linksHistory EditThe slang term SWAG is generally thought to have originated in the US military either the Army 2 or the Air Force 3 Journalist Melvin J Lasky wrote that it was first used casually by US Army General William Westmoreland during the Vietnam War Westmoreland would sometimes reply SWAG to reporters questions about American failure to neutralize the enemy 1 Westmoreland s use of the term was affirmed in court by Colonel John Frank Stewart in November 1984 during witness testimony for the lawsuit initiated by Westmoreland against CBS for their TV documentary The Uncounted Enemy A Vietnam Deception On the witness stand Stewart explained that in Vietnam the military intelligence branch that he commanded would deliver numbers of enemy strength to Westmoreland the numbers derived from the SWAG principle 4 There was laughter in the court when Stewart explained what was meant by the acronym SWAG 4 An earlier use of term is mentioned by linguist J Robert Dumouchel who wrote the 1975 book Dictionary of Development Terminology Dumouchel says he first encountered SWAG in the vernacular of community development in the US in the 1960s 2 Regardless of its origin the term gained greater prominence in the first half of 1999 in connection with the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia Reporter John F Harris of The Washington Post was the first person to put the term into a newspaper article Describing the factors that led to President Bill Clinton relying on the US Air Force in Kosovo instead of employing 200 000 NATO troops 5 Harris wrote that NATO s estimate requiring 200 000 ground troops was regarded by American war planners as politically impossible to achieve it was quickly removed from consideration NATO s analysis officials said was not a comprehensive study Instead it was an initial review that some officials called a SWAG military parlance for a scientific wild ass guess 4 Use EditSWAG is used to describe an estimate derived from a combination of factors including past experience general impressions and heuristic or approximate calculations rather than an exhaustive search proof or rigorous calculation The SWAG is an educated guess but is not regarded as the best or most accurate estimate 2 The SWAG is not computed or proven rigorously but the proponent asserts his or her own judgement suffices to rationalize the estimate and it may in time be viable to produce a rigorous forecast of increased precision 6 Various other backronyms of SWAG have been published including sophisticated wild ass guess Silly Wild Ass Guess Semi Wild Ass Guess Stupid Wild Ass Guess and Scientific Wildly Aimed Guess 7 Scientific implies that the guess can be justified if necessary or cost effective 3 A guess of lesser worth may be called the Wild Ass Guess or WAG A slightly better estimate may be called Back of the Envelope BOTE 8 See also EditBack of the envelope calculation Guesstimate Heuristic Rule of thumbReferences Edit a b Lasky Melvin J 2005 The Language of Journalism Profanity obscenity amp the media The Language of Journalism Vol 2 Transaction Publishers p 106 ISBN 0765802201 a b c Safire William 2004 No Uncertain Terms More Writing from the Popular On Language Column in The New York Times Magazine Simon and Schuster pp 95 96 ISBN 0743258126 a b Acronym Finder Retrieved July 21 2012 a b c Safire William April 25 1999 The Way We Live Now 4 25 99 On Language Eye Roller The New York Times Magazine Harris John F April 1 1999 Clinton Saw No Alternative to Airstrikes Washington Post p A1 searchsoftwarequality techtarget com Retrieved July 21 2012 Black Ron 2005 The Complete Idiot s Guide To Project Management With Microsoft Project 2003 Penguin p 100 ISBN 1592573088 Tracy John A Tracy Tage 2011 Cash Flow For Dummies For Dummies John Wiley amp Sons pp 164 165 ISBN 1118018508 External links Edit The dictionary definition of SWAG at Wiktionary Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Scientific wild ass guess amp oldid 1101826832, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,
