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Log-normal distribution

In probability theory, a log-normal (or lognormal) distribution is a continuous probability distribution of a random variable whose logarithm is normally distributed. Thus, if the random variable X is log-normally distributed, then Y = ln(X) has a normal distribution.[2][3] Equivalently, if Y has a normal distribution, then the exponential function of Y, X = exp(Y) , has a log-normal distribution. A random variable which is log-normally distributed takes only positive real values. It is a convenient and useful model for measurements in exact and engineering sciences, as well as medicine, economics and other topics (e.g., energies, concentrations, lengths, prices of financial instruments, and other metrics).

Log-normal distribution
Probability density function

Identical parameter but differing parameters
Cumulative distribution function

Notation
Parameters (logarithm of scale),
Support
PDF
CDF
Quantile
Mean
Median
Mode
Variance
Skewness
Excess kurtosis
Entropy
MGF  defined only for numbers with a
 non-positive real part, see text
CF  representation
 is asymptotically divergent, but adequate
 for most numerical purposes
Fisher information
Method of Moments

Expected shortfall [1]

The distribution is occasionally referred to as the Galton distribution or Galton's distribution, after Francis Galton.[4] The log-normal distribution has also been associated with other names, such as McAlister, Gibrat and Cobb–Douglas.[4]

A log-normal process is the statistical realization of the multiplicative product of many independent random variables, each of which is positive. This is justified by considering the central limit theorem in the log domain (sometimes called Gibrat's law). The log-normal distribution is the maximum entropy probability distribution for a random variate X—for which the mean and variance of ln(X) are specified.[5]

Definitions edit

Generation and parameters edit

Let   be a standard normal variable, and let   and   be two real numbers, with  . Then, the distribution of the random variable

 

is called the log-normal distribution with parameters   and  . These are the expected value (or mean) and standard deviation of the variable's natural logarithm, not the expectation and standard deviation of   itself.

 
Relation between normal and log-normal distribution. If   is normally distributed, then   is log-normally distributed.

This relationship is true regardless of the base of the logarithmic or exponential function: If   is normally distributed, then so is   for any two positive numbers   Likewise, if   is log-normally distributed, then so is   where  .

In order to produce a distribution with desired mean   and variance   one uses   and  

Alternatively, the "multiplicative" or "geometric" parameters   and   can be used. They have a more direct interpretation:   is the median of the distribution, and   is useful for determining "scatter" intervals, see below.

Probability density function edit

A positive random variable   is log-normally distributed (i.e.,  ), if the natural logarithm of   is normally distributed with mean   and variance  

 

Let   and   be respectively the cumulative probability distribution function and the probability density function of the   standard normal distribution, then we have that[2][4] the probability density function of the log-normal distribution is given by:

 

Cumulative distribution function edit

The cumulative distribution function is

 

where   is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution (i.e.,  ).

This may also be expressed as follows:[2]

 

where erfc is the complementary error function.

Multivariate log-normal edit

If   is a multivariate normal distribution, then   has a multivariate log-normal distribution.[6][7] The exponential is applied elementwise to the random vector  . The mean of   is

 

and its covariance matrix is

 

Since the multivariate log-normal distribution is not widely used, the rest of this entry only deals with the univariate distribution.

Characteristic function and moment generating function edit

All moments of the log-normal distribution exist and

 

This can be derived by letting   within the integral. However, the log-normal distribution is not determined by its moments.[8] This implies that it cannot have a defined moment generating function in a neighborhood of zero.[9] Indeed, the expected value   is not defined for any positive value of the argument  , since the defining integral diverges.

The characteristic function   is defined for real values of t, but is not defined for any complex value of t that has a negative imaginary part, and hence the characteristic function is not analytic at the origin. Consequently, the characteristic function of the log-normal distribution cannot be represented as an infinite convergent series.[10] In particular, its Taylor formal series diverges:

 

However, a number of alternative divergent series representations have been obtained.[10][11][12][13]

A closed-form formula for the characteristic function   with   in the domain of convergence is not known. A relatively simple approximating formula is available in closed form, and is given by[14]

 

where   is the Lambert W function. This approximation is derived via an asymptotic method, but it stays sharp all over the domain of convergence of  .

Properties edit

 
a.   is a log-normal variable with  .   is computed by transforming to the normal variable  , then integrating its density over the domain defined by   (blue regions), using the numerical method of ray-tracing.[15] b & c. The pdf and cdf of the function   of the log-normal variable can also be computed in this way.

Probability in different domains edit

The probability content of a log-normal distribution in any arbitrary domain can be computed to desired precision by first transforming the variable to normal, then numerically integrating using the ray-trace method.[15] (Matlab code)

Probabilities of functions of a log-normal variable edit

Since the probability of a log-normal can be computed in any domain, this means that the cdf (and consequently pdf and inverse cdf) of any function of a log-normal variable can also be computed.[15] (Matlab code)

Geometric or multiplicative moments edit

The geometric or multiplicative mean of the log-normal distribution is  . It equals the median. The geometric or multiplicative standard deviation is  .[16][17]

By analogy with the arithmetic statistics, one can define a geometric variance,  , and a geometric coefficient of variation,[16]  , has been proposed. This term was intended to be analogous to the coefficient of variation, for describing multiplicative variation in log-normal data, but this definition of GCV has no theoretical basis as an estimate of   itself (see also Coefficient of variation).

Note that the geometric mean is smaller than the arithmetic mean. This is due to the AM–GM inequality and is a consequence of the logarithm being a concave function. In fact,

 [18]

In finance, the term   is sometimes interpreted as a convexity correction. From the point of view of stochastic calculus, this is the same correction term as in Itō's lemma for geometric Brownian motion.

Arithmetic moments edit

For any real or complex number n, the n-th moment of a log-normally distributed variable X is given by[4]

 

Specifically, the arithmetic mean, expected square, arithmetic variance, and arithmetic standard deviation of a log-normally distributed variable X are respectively given by:[2]

 

The arithmetic coefficient of variation   is the ratio  . For a log-normal distribution it is equal to[3]

 

This estimate is sometimes referred to as the "geometric CV" (GCV),[19][20] due to its use of the geometric variance. Contrary to the arithmetic standard deviation, the arithmetic coefficient of variation is independent of the arithmetic mean.

The parameters μ and σ can be obtained, if the arithmetic mean and the arithmetic variance are known:

 

A probability distribution is not uniquely determined by the moments E[Xn] = e + 1/2n2σ2 for n ≥ 1. That is, there exist other distributions with the same set of moments.[4] In fact, there is a whole family of distributions with the same moments as the log-normal distribution.[citation needed]

Mode, median, quantiles edit

 
Comparison of mean, median and mode of two log-normal distributions with different skewness.

The mode is the point of global maximum of the probability density function. In particular, by solving the equation  , we get that:

 

Since the log-transformed variable   has a normal distribution, and quantiles are preserved under monotonic transformations, the quantiles of   are

 

where   is the quantile of the standard normal distribution.

Specifically, the median of a log-normal distribution is equal to its multiplicative mean,[21]

 

Partial expectation edit

The partial expectation of a random variable   with respect to a threshold   is defined as

 

Alternatively, by using the definition of conditional expectation, it can be written as  . For a log-normal random variable, the partial expectation is given by:

 

where   is the normal cumulative distribution function. The derivation of the formula is provided in the Talk page. The partial expectation formula has applications in insurance and economics, it is used in solving the partial differential equation leading to the Black–Scholes formula.

Conditional expectation edit

The conditional expectation of a log-normal random variable  —with respect to a threshold  —is its partial expectation divided by the cumulative probability of being in that range:

 

Alternative parameterizations edit

In addition to the characterization by   or  , here are multiple ways how the log-normal distribution can be parameterized. ProbOnto, the knowledge base and ontology of probability distributions[22][23] lists seven such forms:

 
Overview of parameterizations of the log-normal distributions.
  • LogNormal1(μ,σ) with mean, μ, and standard deviation, σ, both on the log-scale [24]
     
  • LogNormal2(μ,υ) with mean, μ, and variance, υ, both on the log-scale
     
  • LogNormal3(m,σ) with median, m, on the natural scale and standard deviation, σ, on the log-scale[24]
     
  • LogNormal4(m,cv) with median, m, and coefficient of variation, cv, both on the natural scale
     
  • LogNormal5(μ,τ) with mean, μ, and precision, τ, both on the log-scale[25]
     
  • LogNormal6(m,σg) with median, m, and geometric standard deviation, σg, both on the natural scale[26]
     
  • LogNormal7(μNN) with mean, μN, and standard deviation, σN, both on the natural scale[27]
     

Examples for re-parameterization edit

Consider the situation when one would like to run a model using two different optimal design tools, for example PFIM[28] and PopED.[29] The former supports the LN2, the latter LN7 parameterization, respectively. Therefore, the re-parameterization is required, otherwise the two tools would produce different results.

For the transition   following formulas hold   and  .

For the transition   following formulas hold   and  .

All remaining re-parameterisation formulas can be found in the specification document on the project website.[30]

Multiple, reciprocal, power edit

  • Multiplication by a constant: If   then   for  
  • Reciprocal: If   then  
  • Power: If   then   for  

Multiplication and division of independent, log-normal random variables edit

If two independent, log-normal variables   and   are multiplied [divided], the product [ratio] is again log-normal, with parameters   [ ] and  , where  . This is easily generalized to the product of   such variables.

More generally, if   are   independent, log-normally distributed variables, then  

Multiplicative central limit theorem edit

The geometric or multiplicative mean of   independent, identically distributed, positive random variables   shows, for  , approximately a log-normal distribution with parameters   and  , assuming   is finite.

In fact, the random variables do not have to be identically distributed. It is enough for the distributions of   to all have finite variance and satisfy the other conditions of any of the many variants of the central limit theorem.

This is commonly known as Gibrat's law.

Other edit

A set of data that arises from the log-normal distribution has a symmetric Lorenz curve (see also Lorenz asymmetry coefficient).[31]

The harmonic  , geometric   and arithmetic   means of this distribution are related;[32] such relation is given by

 

Log-normal distributions are infinitely divisible,[33] but they are not stable distributions, which can be easily drawn from.[34]

Related distributions edit

  • If   is a normal distribution, then  
  • If   is distributed log-normally, then   is a normal random variable.
  • Let   be independent log-normally distributed variables with possibly varying   and   parameters, and  . The distribution of   has no closed-form expression, but can be reasonably approximated by another log-normal distribution   at the right tail.[35] Its probability density function at the neighborhood of 0 has been characterized[34] and it does not resemble any log-normal distribution. A commonly used approximation due to L.F. Fenton (but previously stated by R.I. Wilkinson and mathematically justified by Marlow[36]) is obtained by matching the mean and variance of another log-normal distribution:
     
    In the case that all   have the same variance parameter  , these formulas simplify to
     

For a more accurate approximation, one can use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the cumulative distribution function, the pdf and the right tail.[37][38]

The sum of correlated log-normally distributed random variables can also be approximated by a log-normal distribution[citation needed]

 
  • If   then   is said to have a Three-parameter log-normal distribution with support  .[39]  ,  .
  • The log-normal distribution is a special case of the semi-bounded Johnson's SU-distribution.[40]
  • If   with  , then   (Suzuki distribution).
  • A substitute for the log-normal whose integral can be expressed in terms of more elementary functions[41] can be obtained based on the logistic distribution to get an approximation for the CDF
     
    This is a log-logistic distribution.

Statistical inference edit

Estimation of parameters edit

For determining the maximum likelihood estimators of the log-normal distribution parameters μ and σ, we can use the same procedure as for the normal distribution. Note that

 
where   is the density function of the normal distribution  . Therefore, the log-likelihood function is
 

Since the first term is constant with regard to μ and σ, both logarithmic likelihood functions,   and  , reach their maximum with the same   and  . Hence, the maximum likelihood estimators are identical to those for a normal distribution for the observations  ,

 

For finite n, the estimator for   is unbiased, but the one for   is biased. As for the normal distribution, an unbiased estimator for   can be obtained by replacing the denominator n by n−1 in the equation for  .

When the individual values   are not available, but the sample's mean   and standard deviation s is, then the Method of moments can be used. The corresponding parameters are determined by the following formulas, obtained from solving the equations for the expectation   and variance   for   and  :

 

Interval estimates edit

The most efficient way to obtain interval estimates when analyzing log-normally distributed data consists of applying the well-known methods based on the normal distribution to logarithmically transformed data and then to back-transform results if appropriate.

Prediction intervals edit

A basic example is given by prediction intervals: For the normal distribution, the interval   contains approximately two thirds (68%) of the probability (or of a large sample), and   contain 95%. Therefore, for a log-normal distribution,

 
contains 2/3, and
 
contains 95% of the probability. Using estimated parameters, then approximately the same percentages of the data should be contained in these intervals.

Confidence interval for μ* edit

Using the principle, note that a confidence interval for   is  , where   is the standard error and q is the 97.5% quantile of a t distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom. Back-transformation leads to a confidence interval for  ,

 
with  

Extremal principle of entropy to fix the free parameter σ edit

In applications,   is a parameter to be determined. For growing processes balanced by production and dissipation, the use of an extremal principle of Shannon entropy shows that[42]

 

This value can then be used to give some scaling relation between the inflexion point and maximum point of the log-normal distribution.[42] This relationship is determined by the base of natural logarithm,  , and exhibits some geometrical similarity to the minimal surface energy principle. These scaling relations are useful for predicting a number of growth processes (epidemic spreading, droplet splashing, population growth, swirling rate of the bathtub vortex, distribution of language characters, velocity profile of turbulences, etc.). For example, the log-normal function with such   fits well with the size of secondarily produced droplets during droplet impact [43] and the spreading of an epidemic disease.[44]

The value   is used to provide a probabilistic solution for the Drake equation.[45]

Occurrence and applications edit

The log-normal distribution is important in the description of natural phenomena. Many natural growth processes are driven by the accumulation of many small percentage changes which become additive on a log scale. Under appropriate regularity conditions, the distribution of the resulting accumulated changes will be increasingly well approximated by a log-normal, as noted in the section above on "Multiplicative Central Limit Theorem". This is also known as Gibrat's law, after Robert Gibrat (1904–1980) who formulated it for companies.[46] If the rate of accumulation of these small changes does not vary over time, growth becomes independent of size. Even if this assumption is not true, the size distributions at any age of things that grow over time tends to be log-normal.[citation needed] Consequently, reference ranges for measurements in healthy individuals are more accurately estimated by assuming a log-normal distribution than by assuming a symmetric distribution about the mean.[citation needed]

A second justification is based on the observation that fundamental natural laws imply multiplications and divisions of positive variables. Examples are the simple gravitation law connecting masses and distance with the resulting force, or the formula for equilibrium concentrations of chemicals in a solution that connects concentrations of educts and products. Assuming log-normal distributions of the variables involved leads to consistent models in these cases.

Specific examples are given in the following subsections.[47] contains a review and table of log-normal distributions from geology, biology, medicine, food, ecology, and other areas.[48] is a review article on log-normal distributions in neuroscience, with annotated bibliography.

Human behavior edit

  • The length of comments posted in Internet discussion forums follows a log-normal distribution.[49]
  • Users' dwell time on online articles (jokes, news etc.) follows a log-normal distribution.[50]
  • The length of chess games tends to follow a log-normal distribution.[51]
  • Onset durations of acoustic comparison stimuli that are matched to a standard stimulus follow a log-normal distribution.[18]

Biology and medicine edit

  • Measures of size of living tissue (length, skin area, weight).[52]
  • Incubation period of diseases.[53]
  • Diameters of banana leaf spots, powdery mildew on barley.[47]
  • For highly communicable epidemics, such as SARS in 2003, if public intervention control policies are involved, the number of hospitalized cases is shown to satisfy the log-normal distribution with no free parameters if an entropy is assumed and the standard deviation is determined by the principle of maximum rate of entropy production.[54]
  • The length of inert appendages (hair, claws, nails, teeth) of biological specimens, in the direction of growth.[citation needed]
  • The normalised RNA-Seq readcount for any genomic region can be well approximated by log-normal distribution.
  • The PacBio sequencing read length follows a log-normal distribution.[55]
  • Certain physiological measurements, such as blood pressure of adult humans (after separation on male/female subpopulations).[56]
  • Several pharmacokinetic variables, such as Cmax, elimination half-life and the elimination rate constant.[57]
  • In neuroscience, the distribution of firing rates across a population of neurons is often approximately log-normal. This has been first observed in the cortex and striatum [58] and later in hippocampus and entorhinal cortex,[59] and elsewhere in the brain.[48][60] Also, intrinsic gain distributions and synaptic weight distributions appear to be log-normal[61] as well.
  • Neuron densities in the cerebral cortex, due to the noisy cell division process during neurodevelopment.[62]
  • In operating-rooms management, the distribution of surgery duration.
  • In the size of avalanches of fractures in the cytoskeleton of living cells, showing log-normal distributions, with significantly higher size in cancer cells than healthy ones.[63]

Chemistry edit

 
Fitted cumulative log-normal distribution to annually maximum 1-day rainfalls, see distribution fitting

Hydrology edit

  • In hydrology, the log-normal distribution is used to analyze extreme values of such variables as monthly and annual maximum values of daily rainfall and river discharge volumes.[65]
The image on the right, made with CumFreq, illustrates an example of fitting the log-normal distribution to ranked annually maximum one-day rainfalls showing also the 90% confidence belt based on the binomial distribution.[66]
The rainfall data are represented by plotting positions as part of a cumulative frequency analysis.

Social sciences and demographics edit

  • In economics, there is evidence that the income of 97%–99% of the population is distributed log-normally.[67] (The distribution of higher-income individuals follows a Pareto distribution).[68]
  • If an income distribution follows a log-normal distribution with standard deviation  , then the Gini coefficient, commonly use to evaluate income inequality, can be computed as   where   is the error function, since  , where   is the cumulative distribution function of a standard normal distribution.
  • In finance, in particular the Black–Scholes model, changes in the logarithm of exchange rates, price indices, and stock market indices are assumed normal[69] (these variables behave like compound interest, not like simple interest, and so are multiplicative). However, some mathematicians such as Benoit Mandelbrot have argued [70] that log-Lévy distributions, which possesses heavy tails would be a more appropriate model, in particular for the analysis for stock market crashes. Indeed, stock price distributions typically exhibit a fat tail.[71] The fat tailed distribution of changes during stock market crashes invalidate the assumptions of the central limit theorem.
  • In scientometrics, the number of citations to journal articles and patents follows a discrete log-normal distribution.[72][73]
  • City sizes (population) satisfy Gibrat's Law.[74] The growth process of city sizes is proportionate and invariant with respect to size. From the central limit theorem therefore, the log of city size is normally distributed.
  • The number of sexual partners appears to be best described by a log-normal distribution.[75]

Technology edit

  • In reliability analysis, the log-normal distribution is often used to model times to repair a maintainable system.[76]
  • In wireless communication, "the local-mean power expressed in logarithmic values, such as dB or neper, has a normal (i.e., Gaussian) distribution."[77] Also, the random obstruction of radio signals due to large buildings and hills, called shadowing, is often modeled as a log-normal distribution.
  • Particle size distributions produced by comminution with random impacts, such as in ball milling.[78]
  • The file size distribution of publicly available audio and video data files (MIME types) follows a log-normal distribution over five orders of magnitude.[79]
  • File sizes of 140 million files on personal computers running the Windows OS, collected in 1999.[80][49]
  • Sizes of text-based emails (1990s) and multimedia-based emails (2000s).[49]
  • In computer networks and Internet traffic analysis, log-normal is shown as a good statistical model to represent the amount of traffic per unit time. This has been shown by applying a robust statistical approach on a large groups of real Internet traces. In this context, the log-normal distribution has shown a good performance in two main use cases: (1) predicting the proportion of time traffic will exceed a given level (for service level agreement or link capacity estimation) i.e. link dimensioning based on bandwidth provisioning and (2) predicting 95th percentile pricing.[81]
  • in physical testing when the test produces a time-to-failure of an item under specified conditions, the data is often best analyzed using a lognormal distribution.[82][83]

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ Norton, Matthew; Khokhlov, Valentyn; Uryasev, Stan (2019). "Calculating CVaR and bPOE for common probability distributions with application to portfolio optimization and density estimation" (PDF). Annals of Operations Research. 299 (1–2). Springer: 1281–1315. arXiv:1811.11301. doi:10.1007/s10479-019-03373-1. S2CID 254231768. (PDF) from the original on 2021-04-18. Retrieved 2023-02-27 – via stonybrook.edu.
  2. ^ a b c d Weisstein, Eric W. "Log Normal Distribution". mathworld.wolfram.com. Retrieved 2020-09-13.
  3. ^ a b "1.3.6.6.9. Lognormal Distribution". www.itl.nist.gov. U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Retrieved 2020-09-13.
  4. ^ a b c d e Johnson, Norman L.; Kotz, Samuel; Balakrishnan, N. (1994), "14: Lognormal Distributions", Continuous univariate distributions. Vol. 1, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics: Applied Probability and Statistics (2nd ed.), New York: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-0-471-58495-7, MR 1299979
  5. ^ Park, Sung Y.; Bera, Anil K. (2009). (PDF). Journal of Econometrics. 150 (2): 219–230, esp. Table 1, p. 221. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.511.9750. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.12.014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-07. Retrieved 2011-06-02.
  6. ^ Tarmast, Ghasem (2001). Multivariate Log–Normal Distribution (PDF). ISI Proceedings: 53rd Session. Seoul. (PDF) from the original on 2013-07-19.
  7. ^ Halliwell, Leigh (2015). The Lognormal Random Multivariate (PDF). Casualty Actuarial Society E-Forum, Spring 2015. Arlington, VA. (PDF) from the original on 2015-09-30.
  8. ^ Heyde, CC. (2010), "On a Property of the Lognormal Distribution", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 392–393, doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-5823-5_6, ISBN 978-1-4419-5822-8
  9. ^ Billingsley, Patrick (2012). Probability and Measure (Anniversary ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley. p. 415. ISBN 978-1-118-12237-2. OCLC 780289503.
  10. ^ a b Holgate, P. (1989). "The lognormal characteristic function, vol. 18, pp. 4539–4548, 1989". Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods. 18 (12): 4539–4548. doi:10.1080/03610928908830173.
  11. ^ Barakat, R. (1976). "Sums of independent lognormally distributed random variables". Journal of the Optical Society of America. 66 (3): 211–216. Bibcode:1976JOSA...66..211B. doi:10.1364/JOSA.66.000211.
  12. ^ Barouch, E.; Kaufman, GM.; Glasser, ML. (1986). "On sums of lognormal random variables" (PDF). Studies in Applied Mathematics. 75 (1): 37–55. doi:10.1002/sapm198675137. hdl:1721.1/48703.
  13. ^ Leipnik, Roy B. (January 1991). "On Lognormal Random Variables: I – The Characteristic Function" (PDF). Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society, Series B. 32 (3): 327–347. doi:10.1017/S0334270000006901.
  14. ^ S. Asmussen, J.L. Jensen, L. Rojas-Nandayapa (2016). "On the Laplace transform of the Lognormal distribution", Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 18 (2), 441-458. Thiele report 6 (13).
  15. ^ a b c Das, Abhranil (2021). "A method to integrate and classify normal distributions". Journal of Vision. 21 (10): 1. arXiv:2012.14331. doi:10.1167/jov.21.10.1. PMC 8419883. PMID 34468706.
  16. ^ a b Kirkwood, Thomas BL (Dec 1979). "Geometric means and measures of dispersion". Biometrics. 35 (4): 908–9. JSTOR 2530139.
  17. ^ Limpert, E; Stahel, W; Abbt, M (2001). "Lognormal distributions across the sciences: keys and clues". BioScience. 51 (5): 341–352. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0341:LNDATS]2.0.CO;2.
  18. ^ a
normal, distribution, probability, theory, normal, lognormal, distribution, continuous, probability, distribution, random, variable, whose, logarithm, normally, distributed, thus, random, variable, normally, distributed, then, normal, distribution, equivalentl. In probability theory a log normal or lognormal distribution is a continuous probability distribution of a random variable whose logarithm is normally distributed Thus if the random variable X is log normally distributed then Y ln X has a normal distribution 2 3 Equivalently if Y has a normal distribution then the exponential function of Y X exp Y has a log normal distribution A random variable which is log normally distributed takes only positive real values It is a convenient and useful model for measurements in exact and engineering sciences as well as medicine economics and other topics e g energies concentrations lengths prices of financial instruments and other metrics Log normal distributionProbability density function Identical parameter m displaystyle mu but differing parameters s displaystyle sigma Cumulative distribution function m 0 displaystyle mu 0 Notation Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle operatorname Lognormal left mu sigma 2 right Parameters m displaystyle mu in infty infty logarithm of scale s gt 0 displaystyle sigma gt 0 Support x 0 displaystyle x in 0 infty PDF 1 x s 2 p exp ln x m 2 2 s 2 displaystyle frac 1 x sigma sqrt 2 pi exp left frac left ln x mu right 2 2 sigma 2 right CDF 1 2 1 erf ln x m s 2 F ln x m s displaystyle frac 1 2 left 1 operatorname erf left frac ln x mu sigma sqrt 2 right right Phi left frac ln x mu sigma right Quantile exp m 2 s 2 erf 1 2 p 1 displaystyle exp left mu sqrt 2 sigma 2 operatorname erf 1 2p 1 right Mean exp m s 2 2 displaystyle exp left mu frac sigma 2 2 right Median exp m displaystyle exp mu Mode exp m s 2 displaystyle exp left mu sigma 2 right Variance exp s 2 1 exp 2 m s 2 displaystyle left exp sigma 2 1 right exp left 2 mu sigma 2 right Skewness exp s 2 2 exp s 2 1 displaystyle left exp left sigma 2 right 2 right sqrt exp sigma 2 1 Excess kurtosis 1 exp 4 s 2 2 exp 3 s 2 3 exp 2 s 2 6 displaystyle 1 exp left 4 sigma 2 right 2 exp left 3 sigma 2 right 3 exp left 2 sigma 2 right 6 Entropy log 2 2 p s e m 1 2 displaystyle log 2 left sqrt 2 pi sigma e mu tfrac 1 2 right MGF defined only for numbers with a non positive real part see textCF representation n 0 i t n n e n m n 2 s 2 2 displaystyle sum n 0 infty frac i t n n e n mu n 2 sigma 2 2 is asymptotically divergent but adequate for most numerical purposesFisher information 1 s 2 0 0 2 s 2 displaystyle begin pmatrix frac 1 sigma 2 amp 0 0 amp frac 2 sigma 2 end pmatrix Method of Moments m log E X Var X E X 2 1 displaystyle mu log left frac operatorname mathbb E X sqrt frac operatorname Var X operatorname mathbb E X 2 1 right s log Var X E X 2 1 displaystyle sigma sqrt log left frac operatorname Var X operatorname mathbb E X 2 1 right Expected shortfall erfc s 2 erf 1 2 p 1 2 1 p e m s 2 2 displaystyle frac operatorname erfc left frac s sqrt 2 operatorname erf 1 2p 1 right 2 1 p e mu frac s 2 2 1 The distribution is occasionally referred to as the Galton distribution or Galton s distribution after Francis Galton 4 The log normal distribution has also been associated with other names such as McAlister Gibrat and Cobb Douglas 4 A log normal process is the statistical realization of the multiplicative product of many independent random variables each of which is positive This is justified by considering the central limit theorem in the log domain sometimes called Gibrat s law The log normal distribution is the maximum entropy probability distribution for a random variate X for which the mean and variance of ln X are specified 5 Contents 1 Definitions 1 1 Generation and parameters 1 2 Probability density function 1 3 Cumulative distribution function 1 4 Multivariate log normal 1 5 Characteristic function and moment generating function 2 Properties 2 1 Probability in different domains 2 2 Probabilities of functions of a log normal variable 2 3 Geometric or multiplicative moments 2 4 Arithmetic moments 2 5 Mode median quantiles 2 6 Partial expectation 2 7 Conditional expectation 2 8 Alternative parameterizations 2 8 1 Examples for re parameterization 2 9 Multiple reciprocal power 2 10 Multiplication and division of independent log normal random variables 2 11 Multiplicative central limit theorem 2 12 Other 3 Related distributions 4 Statistical inference 4 1 Estimation of parameters 4 2 Interval estimates 4 2 1 Prediction intervals 4 2 2 Confidence interval for m 4 3 Extremal principle of entropy to fix the free parameter s 5 Occurrence and applications 5 1 Human behavior 5 2 Biology and medicine 5 3 Chemistry 5 4 Hydrology 5 5 Social sciences and demographics 5 6 Technology 6 See also 7 Notes 8 Further reading 9 External linksDefinitions editGeneration and parameters edit Let Z displaystyle Z nbsp be a standard normal variable and let m displaystyle mu nbsp and s displaystyle sigma nbsp be two real numbers with s gt 0 displaystyle sigma gt 0 nbsp Then the distribution of the random variable X e m s Z displaystyle X e mu sigma Z nbsp is called the log normal distribution with parameters m displaystyle mu nbsp and s displaystyle sigma nbsp These are the expected value or mean and standard deviation of the variable s natural logarithm not the expectation and standard deviation of X displaystyle X nbsp itself nbsp Relation between normal and log normal distribution If Y m s Z displaystyle Y mu sigma Z nbsp is normally distributed then X e Y displaystyle X sim e Y nbsp is log normally distributed This relationship is true regardless of the base of the logarithmic or exponential function If log a X displaystyle log a X nbsp is normally distributed then so is log b X displaystyle log b X nbsp for any two positive numbers a b 1 displaystyle a b neq 1 nbsp Likewise if e Y displaystyle e Y nbsp is log normally distributed then so is a Y displaystyle a Y nbsp where 0 lt a 1 displaystyle 0 lt a neq 1 nbsp In order to produce a distribution with desired mean m X displaystyle mu X nbsp and variance s X 2 displaystyle sigma X 2 nbsp one uses m ln m X 2 m X 2 s X 2 displaystyle mu ln left frac mu X 2 sqrt mu X 2 sigma X 2 right nbsp and s 2 ln 1 s X 2 m X 2 displaystyle sigma 2 ln left 1 frac sigma X 2 mu X 2 right nbsp Alternatively the multiplicative or geometric parameters m e m displaystyle mu e mu nbsp and s e s displaystyle sigma e sigma nbsp can be used They have a more direct interpretation m displaystyle mu nbsp is the median of the distribution and s displaystyle sigma nbsp is useful for determining scatter intervals see below Probability density function edit A positive random variable X displaystyle X nbsp is log normally distributed i e X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle X sim operatorname Lognormal left mu sigma 2 right nbsp if the natural logarithm of X displaystyle X nbsp is normally distributed with mean m displaystyle mu nbsp and variance s 2 displaystyle sigma 2 nbsp ln X N m s 2 displaystyle ln X sim mathcal N mu sigma 2 nbsp Let F displaystyle Phi nbsp and f displaystyle varphi nbsp be respectively the cumulative probability distribution function and the probability density function of the N 0 1 displaystyle mathcal N 0 1 nbsp standard normal distribution then we have that 2 4 the probability density function of the log normal distribution is given by f X x d d x P X X x d d x P X ln X ln x d d x F ln x m s f ln x m s d d x ln x m s f ln x m s 1 s x 1 x s 2 p exp ln x m 2 2 s 2 displaystyle begin aligned f X x amp frac rm d rm d x operatorname mathbb P mathit X bigl X leq x bigr 6pt amp frac rm d rm d x operatorname mathbb P mathit X bigl ln X leq ln x bigr 6pt amp frac rm d rm d x operatorname Phi left frac ln x mu sigma right 6pt amp operatorname varphi left frac ln x mu sigma right frac rm d rm d x left frac ln x mu sigma right 6pt amp operatorname varphi left frac ln x mu sigma right frac 1 sigma x 6pt amp frac 1 x sigma sqrt 2 pi exp left frac ln x mu 2 2 sigma 2 right end aligned nbsp Cumulative distribution function edit The cumulative distribution function is F X x F ln x m s displaystyle F X x Phi left frac ln x mu sigma right nbsp where F displaystyle Phi nbsp is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution i e N 0 1 displaystyle operatorname mathcal N 0 1 nbsp This may also be expressed as follows 2 1 2 1 erf ln x m s 2 1 2 erfc ln x m s 2 displaystyle frac 1 2 left 1 operatorname erf left frac ln x mu sigma sqrt 2 right right frac 1 2 operatorname erfc left frac ln x mu sigma sqrt 2 right nbsp where erfc is the complementary error function Multivariate log normal edit If X N m S displaystyle boldsymbol X sim mathcal N boldsymbol mu boldsymbol Sigma nbsp is a multivariate normal distribution then Y i exp X i displaystyle Y i exp X i nbsp has a multivariate log normal distribution 6 7 The exponential is applied elementwise to the random vector X displaystyle boldsymbol X nbsp The mean of Y displaystyle boldsymbol Y nbsp is E Y i e m i 1 2 S i i displaystyle operatorname E boldsymbol Y i e mu i frac 1 2 Sigma ii nbsp and its covariance matrix is Var Y i j e m i m j 1 2 S i i S j j e S i j 1 displaystyle operatorname Var boldsymbol Y ij e mu i mu j frac 1 2 Sigma ii Sigma jj e Sigma ij 1 nbsp Since the multivariate log normal distribution is not widely used the rest of this entry only deals with the univariate distribution Characteristic function and moment generating function edit All moments of the log normal distribution exist and E X n e n m n 2 s 2 2 displaystyle operatorname E X n e n mu n 2 sigma 2 2 nbsp This can be derived by letting z ln x m n s 2 s displaystyle z tfrac ln x mu n sigma 2 sigma nbsp within the integral However the log normal distribution is not determined by its moments 8 This implies that it cannot have a defined moment generating function in a neighborhood of zero 9 Indeed the expected value E e t X displaystyle operatorname E e tX nbsp is not defined for any positive value of the argument t displaystyle t nbsp since the defining integral diverges The characteristic function E e i t X displaystyle operatorname E e itX nbsp is defined for real values of t but is not defined for any complex value of t that has a negative imaginary part and hence the characteristic function is not analytic at the origin Consequently the characteristic function of the log normal distribution cannot be represented as an infinite convergent series 10 In particular its Taylor formal series diverges n 0 i t n n e n m n 2 s 2 2 displaystyle sum n 0 infty frac it n n e n mu n 2 sigma 2 2 nbsp However a number of alternative divergent series representations have been obtained 10 11 12 13 A closed form formula for the characteristic function f t displaystyle varphi t nbsp with t displaystyle t nbsp in the domain of convergence is not known A relatively simple approximating formula is available in closed form and is given by 14 f t exp W 2 i t s 2 e m 2 W i t s 2 e m 2 s 2 1 W i t s 2 e m displaystyle varphi t approx frac exp left frac W 2 it sigma 2 e mu 2W it sigma 2 e mu 2 sigma 2 right sqrt 1 W it sigma 2 e mu nbsp where W displaystyle W nbsp is the Lambert W function This approximation is derived via an asymptotic method but it stays sharp all over the domain of convergence of f displaystyle varphi nbsp Properties edit nbsp a y displaystyle y nbsp is a log normal variable with m 1 s 0 5 displaystyle mu 1 sigma 0 5 nbsp p sin y gt 0 displaystyle p sin y gt 0 nbsp is computed by transforming to the normal variable x ln y displaystyle x ln y nbsp then integrating its density over the domain defined by sin e x gt 0 displaystyle sin e x gt 0 nbsp blue regions using the numerical method of ray tracing 15 b amp c The pdf and cdf of the function sin y displaystyle sin y nbsp of the log normal variable can also be computed in this way Probability in different domains edit The probability content of a log normal distribution in any arbitrary domain can be computed to desired precision by first transforming the variable to normal then numerically integrating using the ray trace method 15 Matlab code Probabilities of functions of a log normal variable edit Since the probability of a log normal can be computed in any domain this means that the cdf and consequently pdf and inverse cdf of any function of a log normal variable can also be computed 15 Matlab code Geometric or multiplicative moments edit The geometric or multiplicative mean of the log normal distribution is GM X e m m displaystyle operatorname GM X e mu mu nbsp It equals the median The geometric or multiplicative standard deviation is GSD X e s s displaystyle operatorname GSD X e sigma sigma nbsp 16 17 By analogy with the arithmetic statistics one can define a geometric variance GVar X e s 2 displaystyle operatorname GVar X e sigma 2 nbsp and a geometric coefficient of variation 16 GCV X e s 1 displaystyle operatorname GCV X e sigma 1 nbsp has been proposed This term was intended to be analogous to the coefficient of variation for describing multiplicative variation in log normal data but this definition of GCV has no theoretical basis as an estimate of CV displaystyle operatorname CV nbsp itself see also Coefficient of variation Note that the geometric mean is smaller than the arithmetic mean This is due to the AM GM inequality and is a consequence of the logarithm being a concave function In fact E X e m 1 2 s 2 e m e s 2 GM X GVar X displaystyle operatorname E X e mu frac 1 2 sigma 2 e mu cdot sqrt e sigma 2 operatorname GM X cdot sqrt operatorname GVar X nbsp 18 In finance the term e 1 2 s 2 displaystyle e frac 1 2 sigma 2 nbsp is sometimes interpreted as a convexity correction From the point of view of stochastic calculus this is the same correction term as in Itō s lemma for geometric Brownian motion Arithmetic moments edit For any real or complex number n the n th moment of a log normally distributed variable X is given by 4 E X n e n m 1 2 n 2 s 2 displaystyle operatorname E X n e n mu frac 1 2 n 2 sigma 2 nbsp Specifically the arithmetic mean expected square arithmetic variance and arithmetic standard deviation of a log normally distributed variable X are respectively given by 2 E X e m 1 2 s 2 E X 2 e 2 m 2 s 2 Var X E X 2 E X 2 E X 2 e s 2 1 e 2 m s 2 e s 2 1 SD X Var X E X e s 2 1 e m 1 2 s 2 e s 2 1 displaystyle begin aligned operatorname E X amp e mu tfrac 1 2 sigma 2 4pt operatorname E X 2 amp e 2 mu 2 sigma 2 4pt operatorname Var X amp operatorname E X 2 operatorname E X 2 operatorname E X 2 e sigma 2 1 e 2 mu sigma 2 e sigma 2 1 4pt operatorname SD X amp sqrt operatorname Var X operatorname E X sqrt e sigma 2 1 e mu tfrac 1 2 sigma 2 sqrt e sigma 2 1 end aligned nbsp The arithmetic coefficient of variation CV X displaystyle operatorname CV X nbsp is the ratio SD X E X displaystyle tfrac operatorname SD X operatorname E X nbsp For a log normal distribution it is equal to 3 CV X e s 2 1 displaystyle operatorname CV X sqrt e sigma 2 1 nbsp This estimate is sometimes referred to as the geometric CV GCV 19 20 due to its use of the geometric variance Contrary to the arithmetic standard deviation the arithmetic coefficient of variation is independent of the arithmetic mean The parameters m and s can be obtained if the arithmetic mean and the arithmetic variance are known m ln E X 2 E X 2 ln E X 2 Var X E X 2 s 2 ln E X 2 E X 2 ln 1 Var X E X 2 displaystyle begin aligned mu amp ln left frac operatorname E X 2 sqrt operatorname E X 2 right ln left frac operatorname E X 2 sqrt operatorname Var X operatorname E X 2 right 4pt sigma 2 amp ln left frac operatorname E X 2 operatorname E X 2 right ln left 1 frac operatorname Var X operatorname E X 2 right end aligned nbsp A probability distribution is not uniquely determined by the moments E Xn enm 1 2 n2s2 for n 1 That is there exist other distributions with the same set of moments 4 In fact there is a whole family of distributions with the same moments as the log normal distribution citation needed Mode median quantiles edit nbsp Comparison of mean median and mode of two log normal distributions with different skewness The mode is the point of global maximum of the probability density function In particular by solving the equation ln f 0 displaystyle ln f 0 nbsp we get that Mode X e m s 2 displaystyle operatorname Mode X e mu sigma 2 nbsp Since the log transformed variable Y ln X displaystyle Y ln X nbsp has a normal distribution and quantiles are preserved under monotonic transformations the quantiles of X displaystyle X nbsp are q X a e m s q F a m s q F a displaystyle q X alpha e mu sigma q Phi alpha mu sigma q Phi alpha nbsp where q F a displaystyle q Phi alpha nbsp is the quantile of the standard normal distribution Specifically the median of a log normal distribution is equal to its multiplicative mean 21 Med X e m m displaystyle operatorname Med X e mu mu nbsp Partial expectation edit The partial expectation of a random variable X displaystyle X nbsp with respect to a threshold k displaystyle k nbsp is defined as g k k x f X x X gt k d x displaystyle g k int k infty xf X x mid X gt k dx nbsp Alternatively by using the definition of conditional expectation it can be written as g k E X X gt k P X gt k displaystyle g k operatorname E X mid X gt k P X gt k nbsp For a log normal random variable the partial expectation is given by g k k x f X x X gt k d x e m 1 2 s 2 F m s 2 ln k s displaystyle g k int k infty xf X x mid X gt k dx e mu tfrac 1 2 sigma 2 Phi left frac mu sigma 2 ln k sigma right nbsp where F displaystyle Phi nbsp is the normal cumulative distribution function The derivation of the formula is provided in the Talk page The partial expectation formula has applications in insurance and economics it is used in solving the partial differential equation leading to the Black Scholes formula Conditional expectation edit The conditional expectation of a log normal random variable X displaystyle X nbsp with respect to a threshold k displaystyle k nbsp is its partial expectation divided by the cumulative probability of being in that range E X X lt k e m s 2 2 F ln k m s 2 s F ln k m s E X X k e m s 2 2 F m s 2 ln k s 1 F ln k m s E X X k 1 k 2 e m s 2 2 F ln k 2 m s 2 s F ln k 1 m s 2 s F ln k 2 m s F ln k 1 m s displaystyle begin aligned E X mid X lt k amp e mu frac sigma 2 2 cdot frac Phi left frac ln k mu sigma 2 sigma right Phi left frac ln k mu sigma right 8pt E X mid X geqslant k amp e mu frac sigma 2 2 cdot frac Phi left frac mu sigma 2 ln k sigma right 1 Phi left frac ln k mu sigma right 8pt E X mid X in k 1 k 2 amp e mu frac sigma 2 2 cdot frac Phi left frac ln k 2 mu sigma 2 sigma right Phi left frac ln k 1 mu sigma 2 sigma right Phi left frac ln k 2 mu sigma right Phi left frac ln k 1 mu sigma right end aligned nbsp Alternative parameterizations editIn addition to the characterization by m s displaystyle mu sigma nbsp or m s displaystyle mu sigma nbsp here are multiple ways how the log normal distribution can be parameterized ProbOnto the knowledge base and ontology of probability distributions 22 23 lists seven such forms nbsp Overview of parameterizations of the log normal distributions LogNormal1 m s with mean m and standard deviation s both on the log scale 24 P x m s 1 x s 2 p exp ln x m 2 2 s 2 displaystyle P x boldsymbol mu boldsymbol sigma frac 1 x sigma sqrt 2 pi exp left frac ln x mu 2 2 sigma 2 right nbsp LogNormal2 m y with mean m and variance y both on the log scale P x m v 1 x v 2 p exp ln x m 2 2 v displaystyle P x boldsymbol mu boldsymbol v frac 1 x sqrt v sqrt 2 pi exp left frac ln x mu 2 2v right nbsp LogNormal3 m s with median m on the natural scale and standard deviation s on the log scale 24 P x m s 1 x s 2 p exp ln 2 x m 2 s 2 displaystyle P x boldsymbol m boldsymbol sigma frac 1 x sigma sqrt 2 pi exp left frac ln 2 x m 2 sigma 2 right nbsp LogNormal4 m cv with median m and coefficient of variation cv both on the natural scale P x m c v 1 x ln c v 2 1 2 p exp ln 2 x m 2 ln c v 2 1 displaystyle P x boldsymbol m boldsymbol cv frac 1 x sqrt ln cv 2 1 sqrt 2 pi exp left frac ln 2 x m 2 ln cv 2 1 right nbsp LogNormal5 m t with mean m and precision t both on the log scale 25 P x m t t 2 p 1 x exp t 2 ln x m 2 displaystyle P x boldsymbol mu boldsymbol tau sqrt frac tau 2 pi frac 1 x exp left frac tau 2 ln x mu 2 right nbsp LogNormal6 m sg with median m and geometric standard deviation sg both on the natural scale 26 P x m s g 1 x ln s g 2 p exp ln 2 x m 2 ln 2 s g displaystyle P x boldsymbol m boldsymbol sigma g frac 1 x ln sigma g sqrt 2 pi exp left frac ln 2 x m 2 ln 2 sigma g right nbsp LogNormal7 mN sN with mean mN and standard deviation sN both on the natural scale 27 P x m N s N 1 x 2 p ln 1 s N 2 m N 2 exp ln x ln m N 1 s N 2 m N 2 2 2 ln 1 s N 2 m N 2 displaystyle P x boldsymbol mu N boldsymbol sigma N frac 1 x sqrt 2 pi ln left 1 sigma N 2 mu N 2 right exp left frac Big ln x ln frac mu N sqrt 1 sigma N 2 mu N 2 Big 2 2 ln 1 sigma N 2 mu N 2 right nbsp Examples for re parameterization edit Consider the situation when one would like to run a model using two different optimal design tools for example PFIM 28 and PopED 29 The former supports the LN2 the latter LN7 parameterization respectively Therefore the re parameterization is required otherwise the two tools would produce different results For the transition LN2 m v LN7 m N s N displaystyle operatorname LN2 mu v to operatorname LN7 mu N sigma N nbsp following formulas hold m N exp m v 2 textstyle mu N exp mu v 2 nbsp and s N exp m v 2 exp v 1 textstyle sigma N exp mu v 2 sqrt exp v 1 nbsp For the transition LN7 m N s N LN2 m v displaystyle operatorname LN7 mu N sigma N to operatorname LN2 mu v nbsp following formulas hold m ln m N 1 s N 2 m N 2 textstyle mu ln left mu N sqrt 1 sigma N 2 mu N 2 right nbsp and v ln 1 s N 2 m N 2 textstyle v ln 1 sigma N 2 mu N 2 nbsp All remaining re parameterisation formulas can be found in the specification document on the project website 30 Multiple reciprocal power edit Multiplication by a constant If X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp then a X Lognormal m ln a s 2 displaystyle aX sim operatorname Lognormal mu ln a sigma 2 nbsp for a gt 0 displaystyle a gt 0 nbsp Reciprocal If X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp then 1 X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle tfrac 1 X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp Power If X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp then X a Lognormal a m a 2 s 2 displaystyle X a sim operatorname Lognormal a mu a 2 sigma 2 nbsp for a 0 displaystyle a neq 0 nbsp Multiplication and division of independent log normal random variables edit If two independent log normal variables X 1 displaystyle X 1 nbsp and X 2 displaystyle X 2 nbsp are multiplied divided the product ratio is again log normal with parameters m m 1 m 2 displaystyle mu mu 1 mu 2 nbsp m m 1 m 2 displaystyle mu mu 1 mu 2 nbsp and s displaystyle sigma nbsp where s 2 s 1 2 s 2 2 displaystyle sigma 2 sigma 1 2 sigma 2 2 nbsp This is easily generalized to the product of n displaystyle n nbsp such variables More generally if X j Lognormal m j s j 2 displaystyle X j sim operatorname Lognormal mu j sigma j 2 nbsp are n displaystyle n nbsp independent log normally distributed variables then Y j 1 n X j Lognormal j 1 n m j j 1 n s j 2 displaystyle Y textstyle prod j 1 n X j sim operatorname Lognormal Big textstyle sum j 1 n mu j sum j 1 n sigma j 2 Big nbsp Multiplicative central limit theorem edit See also Gibrat s law The geometric or multiplicative mean of n displaystyle n nbsp independent identically distributed positive random variables X i displaystyle X i nbsp shows for n displaystyle n to infty nbsp approximately a log normal distribution with parameters m E ln X i displaystyle mu E ln X i nbsp and s 2 var ln X i n displaystyle sigma 2 mbox var ln X i n nbsp assuming s 2 displaystyle sigma 2 nbsp is finite In fact the random variables do not have to be identically distributed It is enough for the distributions of ln X i displaystyle ln X i nbsp to all have finite variance and satisfy the other conditions of any of the many variants of the central limit theorem This is commonly known as Gibrat s law Other edit A set of data that arises from the log normal distribution has a symmetric Lorenz curve see also Lorenz asymmetry coefficient 31 The harmonic H displaystyle H nbsp geometric G displaystyle G nbsp and arithmetic A displaystyle A nbsp means of this distribution are related 32 such relation is given by H G 2 A displaystyle H frac G 2 A nbsp Log normal distributions are infinitely divisible 33 but they are not stable distributions which can be easily drawn from 34 Related distributions editIf X N m s 2 displaystyle X sim mathcal N mu sigma 2 nbsp is a normal distribution then exp X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle exp X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp If X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp is distributed log normally then ln X N m s 2 displaystyle ln X sim mathcal N mu sigma 2 nbsp is a normal random variable Let X j Lognormal m j s j 2 displaystyle X j sim operatorname Lognormal mu j sigma j 2 nbsp be independent log normally distributed variables with possibly varying s displaystyle sigma nbsp and m displaystyle mu nbsp parameters and Y j 1 n X j textstyle Y sum j 1 n X j nbsp The distribution of Y displaystyle Y nbsp has no closed form expression but can be reasonably approximated by another log normal distribution Z displaystyle Z nbsp at the right tail 35 Its probability density function at the neighborhood of 0 has been characterized 34 and it does not resemble any log normal distribution A commonly used approximation due to L F Fenton but previously stated by R I Wilkinson and mathematically justified by Marlow 36 is obtained by matching the mean and variance of another log normal distribution s Z 2 ln e 2 m j s j 2 e s j 2 1 e m j s j 2 2 2 1 m Z ln e m j s j 2 2 s Z 2 2 displaystyle begin aligned sigma Z 2 amp ln left frac sum e 2 mu j sigma j 2 e sigma j 2 1 sum e mu j sigma j 2 2 2 1 right mu Z amp ln left sum e mu j sigma j 2 2 right frac sigma Z 2 2 end aligned nbsp In the case that all X j displaystyle X j nbsp have the same variance parameter s j s displaystyle sigma j sigma nbsp these formulas simplify to s Z 2 ln e s 2 1 e 2 m j e m j 2 1 m Z ln e m j s 2 2 s Z 2 2 displaystyle begin aligned sigma Z 2 amp ln left e sigma 2 1 frac sum e 2 mu j sum e mu j 2 1 right mu Z amp ln left sum e mu j right frac sigma 2 2 frac sigma Z 2 2 end aligned nbsp For a more accurate approximation one can use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the cumulative distribution function the pdf and the right tail 37 38 The sum of correlated log normally distributed random variables can also be approximated by a log normal distribution citation needed S E i X i i E X i i e m i s i 2 2 s Z 2 1 S 2 i j cor i j s i s j E X i E X j 1 S 2 i j cor i j s i s j e m i s i 2 2 e m j s j 2 2 m Z ln S s Z 2 2 displaystyle begin aligned S amp operatorname E left sum i X i right sum i operatorname E X i sum i e mu i sigma i 2 2 sigma Z 2 amp 1 S 2 sum i j operatorname cor ij sigma i sigma j operatorname E X i operatorname E X j 1 S 2 sum i j operatorname cor ij sigma i sigma j e mu i sigma i 2 2 e mu j sigma j 2 2 mu Z amp ln left S right sigma Z 2 2 end aligned nbsp If X Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle X sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp then X c displaystyle X c nbsp is said to have a Three parameter log normal distribution with support x c displaystyle x in c infty nbsp 39 E X c E X c displaystyle operatorname E X c operatorname E X c nbsp Var X c Var X displaystyle operatorname Var X c operatorname Var X nbsp The log normal distribution is a special case of the semi bounded Johnson s SU distribution 40 If X Y Rayleigh Y displaystyle X mid Y sim operatorname Rayleigh Y nbsp with Y Lognormal m s 2 displaystyle Y sim operatorname Lognormal mu sigma 2 nbsp then X Suzuki m s displaystyle X sim operatorname Suzuki mu sigma nbsp Suzuki distribution A substitute for the log normal whose integral can be expressed in terms of more elementary functions 41 can be obtained based on the logistic distribution to get an approximation for the CDF F x m s e m x p s 3 1 1 displaystyle F x mu sigma left left frac e mu x right pi sigma sqrt 3 1 right 1 nbsp This is a log logistic distribution Statistical inference editEstimation of parameters edit For determining the maximum likelihood estimators of the log normal distribution parameters m and s we can use the same procedure as for the normal distribution Note thatL m s i 1 n 1 x i f m s ln x i displaystyle L mu sigma prod i 1 n frac 1 x i varphi mu sigma ln x i nbsp where f displaystyle varphi nbsp is the density function of the normal distribution N m s 2 displaystyle mathcal N mu sigma 2 nbsp Therefore the log likelihood function is ℓ m s x 1 x 2 x n i ln x i ℓ N m s ln x 1 ln x 2 ln x n displaystyle ell mu sigma mid x 1 x 2 ldots x n sum i ln x i ell N mu sigma mid ln x 1 ln x 2 dots ln x n nbsp Since the first term is constant with regard to m and s both logarithmic likelihood functions ℓ displaystyle ell nbsp and ℓ N displaystyle ell N nbsp reach their maximum with the same m displaystyle mu nbsp and s displaystyle sigma nbsp Hence the maximum likelihood estimators are identical to those for a normal distribution for the observations ln x 1 ln x 2 ln x n displaystyle ln x 1 ln x 2 dots ln x n nbsp m i ln x i n s 2 i ln x i m 2 n displaystyle widehat mu frac sum i ln x i n qquad widehat sigma 2 frac sum i left ln x i widehat mu right 2 n nbsp For finite n the estimator for m displaystyle mu nbsp is unbiased but the one for s displaystyle sigma nbsp is biased As for the normal distribution an unbiased estimator for s displaystyle sigma nbsp can be obtained by replacing the denominator n by n 1 in the equation for s 2 displaystyle widehat sigma 2 nbsp When the individual values x 1 x 2 x n displaystyle x 1 x 2 ldots x n nbsp are not available but the sample s mean x displaystyle bar x nbsp and standard deviation s is then the Method of moments can be used The corresponding parameters are determined by the following formulas obtained from solving the equations for the expectation E X displaystyle operatorname E X nbsp and variance Var X displaystyle operatorname Var X nbsp for m displaystyle mu nbsp and s displaystyle sigma nbsp m ln x 1 s 2 x 2 s 2 ln 1 s 2 x 2 displaystyle mu ln left frac bar x sqrt 1 widehat sigma 2 bar x 2 right qquad sigma 2 ln left 1 widehat sigma 2 bar x 2 right nbsp Interval estimates edit Further information Reference range Log normal distribution The most efficient way to obtain interval estimates when analyzing log normally distributed data consists of applying the well known methods based on the normal distribution to logarithmically transformed data and then to back transform results if appropriate Prediction intervals edit A basic example is given by prediction intervals For the normal distribution the interval m s m s displaystyle mu sigma mu sigma nbsp contains approximately two thirds 68 of the probability or of a large sample and m 2 s m 2 s displaystyle mu 2 sigma mu 2 sigma nbsp contain 95 Therefore for a log normal distribution m s m s m s displaystyle mu sigma mu cdot sigma mu times sigma nbsp contains 2 3 and m s 2 m s 2 m s 2 displaystyle mu sigma 2 mu cdot sigma 2 mu times sigma 2 nbsp contains 95 of the probability Using estimated parameters then approximately the same percentages of the data should be contained in these intervals Confidence interval for m edit Using the principle note that a confidence interval for m displaystyle mu nbsp is m q s e displaystyle widehat mu pm q cdot widehat mathop se nbsp where s e s n displaystyle mathop se widehat sigma sqrt n nbsp is the standard error and q is the 97 5 quantile of a t distribution with n 1 degrees of freedom Back transformation leads to a confidence interval for m displaystyle mu nbsp m sem q displaystyle widehat mu times operatorname sem q nbsp with sem s 1 n displaystyle operatorname sem widehat sigma 1 sqrt n nbsp Extremal principle of entropy to fix the free parameter s edit In applications s displaystyle sigma nbsp is a parameter to be determined For growing processes balanced by production and dissipation the use of an extremal principle of Shannon entropy shows that 42 s 1 6 displaystyle sigma frac 1 sqrt 6 nbsp This value can then be used to give some scaling relation between the inflexion point and maximum point of the log normal distribution 42 This relationship is determined by the base of natural logarithm e 2 718 displaystyle e 2 718 ldots nbsp and exhibits some geometrical similarity to the minimal surface energy principle These scaling relations are useful for predicting a number of growth processes epidemic spreading droplet splashing population growth swirling rate of the bathtub vortex distribution of language characters velocity profile of turbulences etc For example the log normal function with such s displaystyle sigma nbsp fits well with the size of secondarily produced droplets during droplet impact 43 and the spreading of an epidemic disease 44 The value s 1 6 textstyle sigma 1 big sqrt 6 nbsp is used to provide a probabilistic solution for the Drake equation 45 Occurrence and applications editThe log normal distribution is important in the description of natural phenomena Many natural growth processes are driven by the accumulation of many small percentage changes which become additive on a log scale Under appropriate regularity conditions the distribution of the resulting accumulated changes will be increasingly well approximated by a log normal as noted in the section above on Multiplicative Central Limit Theorem This is also known as Gibrat s law after Robert Gibrat 1904 1980 who formulated it for companies 46 If the rate of accumulation of these small changes does not vary over time growth becomes independent of size Even if this assumption is not true the size distributions at any age of things that grow over time tends to be log normal citation needed Consequently reference ranges for measurements in healthy individuals are more accurately estimated by assuming a log normal distribution than by assuming a symmetric distribution about the mean citation needed A second justification is based on the observation that fundamental natural laws imply multiplications and divisions of positive variables Examples are the simple gravitation law connecting masses and distance with the resulting force or the formula for equilibrium concentrations of chemicals in a solution that connects concentrations of educts and products Assuming log normal distributions of the variables involved leads to consistent models in these cases Specific examples are given in the following subsections 47 contains a review and table of log normal distributions from geology biology medicine food ecology and other areas 48 is a review article on log normal distributions in neuroscience with annotated bibliography Human behavior edit The length of comments posted in Internet discussion forums follows a log normal distribution 49 Users dwell time on online articles jokes news etc follows a log normal distribution 50 The length of chess games tends to follow a log normal distribution 51 Onset durations of acoustic comparison stimuli that are matched to a standard stimulus follow a log normal distribution 18 Biology and medicine edit Measures of size of living tissue length skin area weight 52 Incubation period of diseases 53 Diameters of banana leaf spots powdery mildew on barley 47 For highly communicable epidemics such as SARS in 2003 if public intervention control policies are involved the number of hospitalized cases is shown to satisfy the log normal distribution with no free parameters if an entropy is assumed and the standard deviation is determined by the principle of maximum rate of entropy production 54 The length of inert appendages hair claws nails teeth of biological specimens in the direction of growth citation needed The normalised RNA Seq readcount for any genomic region can be well approximated by log normal distribution The PacBio sequencing read length follows a log normal distribution 55 Certain physiological measurements such as blood pressure of adult humans after separation on male female subpopulations 56 Several pharmacokinetic variables such as Cmax elimination half life and the elimination rate constant 57 In neuroscience the distribution of firing rates across a population of neurons is often approximately log normal This has been first observed in the cortex and striatum 58 and later in hippocampus and entorhinal cortex 59 and elsewhere in the brain 48 60 Also intrinsic gain distributions and synaptic weight distributions appear to be log normal 61 as well Neuron densities in the cerebral cortex due to the noisy cell division process during neurodevelopment 62 In operating rooms management the distribution of surgery duration In the size of avalanches of fractures in the cytoskeleton of living cells showing log normal distributions with significantly higher size in cancer cells than healthy ones 63 Chemistry edit Particle size distributions and molar mass distributions The concentration of rare elements in minerals 64 Diameters of crystals in ice cream oil drops in mayonnaise pores in cocoa press cake 47 nbsp Fitted cumulative log normal distribution to annually maximum 1 day rainfalls see distribution fitting Hydrology edit In hydrology the log normal distribution is used to analyze extreme values of such variables as monthly and annual maximum values of daily rainfall and river discharge volumes 65 The image on the right made with CumFreq illustrates an example of fitting the log normal distribution to ranked annually maximum one day rainfalls showing also the 90 confidence belt based on the binomial distribution 66 dd The rainfall data are represented by plotting positions as part of a cumulative frequency analysis dd Social sciences and demographics edit In economics there is evidence that the income of 97 99 of the population is distributed log normally 67 The distribution of higher income individuals follows a Pareto distribution 68 If an income distribution follows a log normal distribution with standard deviation s displaystyle sigma nbsp then the Gini coefficient commonly use to evaluate income inequality can be computed as G erf s 2 displaystyle G operatorname erf left frac sigma 2 right nbsp where erf displaystyle operatorname erf nbsp is the error function since G 2 F s 2 1 displaystyle G 2 Phi left frac sigma sqrt 2 right 1 nbsp where F x displaystyle Phi x nbsp is the cumulative distribution function of a standard normal distribution In finance in particular the Black Scholes model changes in the logarithm of exchange rates price indices and stock market indices are assumed normal 69 these variables behave like compound interest not like simple interest and so are multiplicative However some mathematicians such as Benoit Mandelbrot have argued 70 that log Levy distributions which possesses heavy tails would be a more appropriate model in particular for the analysis for stock market crashes Indeed stock price distributions typically exhibit a fat tail 71 The fat tailed distribution of changes during stock market crashes invalidate the assumptions of the central limit theorem In scientometrics the number of citations to journal articles and patents follows a discrete log normal distribution 72 73 City sizes population satisfy Gibrat s Law 74 The growth process of city sizes is proportionate and invariant with respect to size From the central limit theorem therefore the log of city size is normally distributed The number of sexual partners appears to be best described by a log normal distribution 75 Technology edit In reliability analysis the log normal distribution is often used to model times to repair a maintainable system 76 In wireless communication the local mean power expressed in logarithmic values such as dB or neper has a normal i e Gaussian distribution 77 Also the random obstruction of radio signals due to large buildings and hills called shadowing is often modeled as a log normal distribution Particle size distributions produced by comminution with random impacts such as in ball milling 78 The file size distribution of publicly available audio and video data files MIME types follows a log normal distribution over five orders of magnitude 79 File sizes of 140 million files on personal computers running the Windows OS collected in 1999 80 49 Sizes of text based emails 1990s and multimedia based emails 2000s 49 In computer networks and Internet traffic analysis log normal is shown as a good statistical model to represent the amount of traffic per unit time This has been shown by applying a robust statistical approach on a large groups of real Internet traces In this context the log normal distribution has shown a good performance in two main use cases 1 predicting the proportion of time traffic will exceed a given level for service level agreement or link capacity estimation i e link dimensioning based on bandwidth provisioning and 2 predicting 95th percentile pricing 81 in physical testing when the test produces a time to failure of an item under specified conditions the data is often best analyzed using a lognormal distribution 82 83 See also editHeavy tailed distribution Log distance path loss model Modified lognormal power law distribution Slow fadingNotes edit Norton Matthew Khokhlov Valentyn Uryasev Stan 2019 Calculating CVaR and bPOE for common probability distributions with application to portfolio optimization and density estimation PDF Annals of Operations Research 299 1 2 Springer 1281 1315 arXiv 1811 11301 doi 10 1007 s10479 019 03373 1 S2CID 254231768 Archived PDF from the original on 2021 04 18 Retrieved 2023 02 27 via stonybrook edu a b c d Weisstein Eric W Log Normal Distribution mathworld wolfram com Retrieved 2020 09 13 a b 1 3 6 6 9 Lognormal Distribution www itl nist gov U S National Institute of Standards and Technology NIST Retrieved 2020 09 13 a b c d e Johnson Norman L Kotz Samuel Balakrishnan N 1994 14 Lognormal Distributions Continuous univariate distributions Vol 1 Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics Applied Probability and Statistics 2nd ed New York John Wiley amp Sons ISBN 978 0 471 58495 7 MR 1299979 Park Sung Y Bera Anil K 2009 Maximum entropy autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model PDF Journal of Econometrics 150 2 219 230 esp Table 1 p 221 CiteSeerX 10 1 1 511 9750 doi 10 1016 j jeconom 2008 12 014 Archived from the original PDF on 2016 03 07 Retrieved 2011 06 02 Tarmast Ghasem 2001 Multivariate Log Normal Distribution PDF ISI Proceedings 53rd Session Seoul Archived PDF from the original on 2013 07 19 Halliwell Leigh 2015 The Lognormal Random Multivariate PDF Casualty Actuarial Society E Forum Spring 2015 Arlington VA Archived PDF from the original on 2015 09 30 Heyde CC 2010 On a Property of the Lognormal Distribution Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B vol 25 no 2 pp 392 393 doi 10 1007 978 1 4419 5823 5 6 ISBN 978 1 4419 5822 8 Billingsley Patrick 2012 Probability and Measure Anniversary ed Hoboken N J Wiley p 415 ISBN 978 1 118 12237 2 OCLC 780289503 a b Holgate P 1989 The lognormal characteristic function vol 18 pp 4539 4548 1989 Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods 18 12 4539 4548 doi 10 1080 03610928908830173 Barakat R 1976 Sums of independent lognormally distributed random variables Journal of the Optical Society of America 66 3 211 216 Bibcode 1976JOSA 66 211B doi 10 1364 JOSA 66 000211 Barouch E Kaufman GM Glasser ML 1986 On sums of lognormal random variables PDF Studies in Applied Mathematics 75 1 37 55 doi 10 1002 sapm198675137 hdl 1721 1 48703 Leipnik Roy B January 1991 On Lognormal Random Variables I The Characteristic Function PDF Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society Series B 32 3 327 347 doi 10 1017 S0334270000006901 S Asmussen J L Jensen L Rojas Nandayapa 2016 On the Laplace transform of the Lognormal distribution Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 18 2 441 458 Thiele report 6 13 a b c Das Abhranil 2021 A method to integrate and classify normal distributions Journal of Vision 21 10 1 arXiv 2012 14331 doi 10 1167 jov 21 10 1 PMC 8419883 PMID 34468706 a b Kirkwood Thomas BL Dec 1979 Geometric means and measures of dispersion Biometrics 35 4 908 9 JSTOR 2530139 Limpert E Stahel W Abbt M 2001 Lognormal distributions across the sciences keys and clues BioScience 51 5 341 352 doi 10 1641 0006 3568 2001 051 0341 LNDATS 2 0 CO 2 a a, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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