Impact of the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

Main article: War in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

The 20-year-long War in Afghanistan had a number of significant impacts on Afghan society.

Casualties

 

Victims of the Narang night raid that killed at least 10 Afghan civilians, December 2009

 

Gathering outside Afghan embassy in Tehran to condemn the 2021 Kabul school bombing

Main article: Civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

See also: Coalition casualties in Afghanistan, Afghan security forces casualties, and aviation accidents

According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, the war killed 46,319 Afghan civilians in Afghanistan. However, the death toll is possibly higher due to unaccounted deaths by "disease, loss of access to food, water, infrastructure, and/or other indirect consequences of the war".^[1] A report titled Body Count put together by Physicians for Social Responsibility, Physicians for Global Survival and International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) concluded that 106,000–170,000 civilians have been killed as a result of the fighting in Afghanistan at the hands of all parties to the conflict.^[2]

The majority of civilian casualties were attributed to anti-government elements each year, though the figure varied from 61% to 80%, with the average hovering around 75% due to the Taliban and other anti-government elements.^{[3][4][5][6][7]} The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) started publishing civilian casualty figures in 2008. These figures attribute approximately 41% of civilian casualties to government aligned forces in 2008; this percentage lowers to approximately 18% in 2015.^[8]

Civilian deaths caused by non-Afghan Coalition forces were low later in the war after most foreign troops were withdrawn and the coalition shifted to airstrikes. For example, in 2015 pro-government forces caused 17% of civilian deaths and injuries – including United States and NATO troops, which were responsible for only 2% of the casualties.^[9] 2016 had a similar 2% figure. Civilian deaths were higher as well in the latter part of the war, with 2015 and 2016 both consecutively breaking the record of annual civilian deaths according to the UN.^[10]

Following the overthrow of the Taliban government in 2001, many Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters fled to Pakistan. In 2004, an armed conflict began in North-West Pakistan between the Pakistan Armed Forces and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, al-Qaeda, and other allied groups. The conflict killed 67,000 people in total from 2001 to 2021, according to the Costs of War Project.^[1][8]

Costs

The Pentagon's near-final estimate of the cost of the war in Afghanistan, including reconstruction, was $825 billion. This was provided in its 2020 year-end "Cost of War Report."^[11] Another estimate that was recognized by US President Joe Biden put the costs at over $2 trillion.^[12] As of 2013, the UK's contribution to the war in Afghanistan came to £37 billion ($56.46 billion).^[13] For years, US officials had considered the cost of the war while discussing when to draw down troops.^[14] In 2011, for example, the average cost of deploying a US soldier in Afghanistan exceeded US$1 million a year.^[15] In March 2013, Linda Bilmes at Harvard Kennedy School estimated that the long-term costs of the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would come to total at least US$4 to $6 trillion, with a significant portion of the cost due to disability for veterans and interest payments on debt through to 2050.^[16][17] As of 2021, Brown University estimates that the war in Afghanistan has already cost $2.261 trillion, out of which $530 billion has been spent on interest payments and $296 billion has been spent on veterans' care.^[1]

Inefficient aid

Main article: Phantom aid in Afghanistan

Corruption and inefficiency resulted in significant amounts of international aid not reaching their intended targets. In the first decade of the war, the United States lost between $31 and $60 billion to waste and fraud.^[18] In the summer of 2013, preparing for withdrawal the following year, the US military destroyed over 77,000 metric tons of equipment and vehicles worth over $7 billion that could not be shipped back to the United States. Some was sold to Afghans as scrap metal.^[19] In 2013, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, a US government oversight body, criticized the misuse or waste of hundreds of millions of dollars in US aid, including the $772 million purchase of aircraft for the Afghan military especially since "the Afghans lack the capacity to operate and maintain them".^[20]

In interviews conducted for the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction's Lessons Learned Program, one interviewee estimated that 40 percent of US aid to Afghanistan since 2001 ended up in the pockets of corrupt officials, warlords, criminals and insurgents.^[21] Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, told the investigators in a 2016 interview, "You just cannot put those amounts of money into a very fragile state and society, and not have it fuel corruption."^[22]

Refugees

Main article: Afghan refugees

 

Foreign donated clothing being handed out by an Afghan civil officer to children at a refugee camp, 2011

Since 2001, more than 5.7 million former refugees have returned to Afghanistan,^[23][24][25] but 2.6 million others remained refugees in 2021 and few refugees were returning.^[26][27] After many years of returning refugees, the tide started to turn both due to a poor economic situation^[28] and a significant increase of violence, leading to increasing numbers fleeing as of 2009.^[29]

In January 2013 the UN estimated that 547,550 were internally displaced persons, a 25% increase over the 447,547 IDPs estimated for January 2012^[25][27][30] 400,000 people were displaced in 2020 and 200,000 were displaced in the first half of 2021.^[26]

 

Afghan refugees resettled per 100K residents after the 2021 Afghan withdrawal and evacuation in each U.S. state and the District of Columbia, according to CBS News.

As of 2020, Pakistan has taken in the largest number of Afghan refugees, followed by Iran. Smaller numbers have taken refuge in India, Indonesia and Tajikistan. Outside Asia, Germany took in by far the largest number of refugees as well as the largest amount of asylum seekers.^[31]

Following the Taliban takeover, over 122,000 people were airlifted abroad from Kabul airport, during the evacuation from Afghanistan, including Afghans, American citizens, and other foreign citizens.^[32]

A year after the Taliban takeover, the United States had accepted over 85,000 Afghan refugees, many of whom had been processed in Europe and the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates agreed to temporarily host Afghan refugees in Abu Dhabi on behalf of other nations. Over 10,000 have been resettled to the United States from Abu Dhabi, but 12,000 remained there as of August 2022, leading to protests by refugees over the resettlement process and living conditions.^[33]

Drug trade

 

Afghanistan opium poppy cultivation, 1994–2016 (hectares)

Main article: Opium production in Afghanistan

From 1996 to 1999, the Taliban controlled 96% of Afghanistan's poppy fields and made opium its largest source of revenue though taxes on opium exports. According to Rashid, "drug money funded the weapons, ammunition and fuel for the war".^[34] By 2000 Afghanistan accounted for an estimated 75% of the world's opium supply with an estimated 3,276 tonnes produced.^[35] Omar then banned opium cultivation and production dropped to an estimated 74 metric tonnes.^[36] Some observers say the ban – which came in a bid for international recognition at the United Nations – was issued only to raise opium prices and increase profit from the sale of large existing stockpiles. In September 2001 – before the 11 September attacks against the US – the Taliban allegedly authorized Afghan peasants to sow opium again.^[34]

Soon after the invasion opium production increased markedly.^[37] By 2005, Afghanistan was producing 90% of the world's opium, most of which was processed into heroin and sold in Europe and Russia.^[38]

According to a 2018 report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the US spent $8.6 billion since 2002 to stop Afghanistan's drug trade and deny the Taliban a revenue source. A May 2021 SIGAR report estimated that the Taliban earn 60% of their annual revenue from the trade, while UN officials estimated more than $400 million was earned by the Taliban from the trade between 2018 and 2019, however other experts have disputed this and estimated that the Taliban earns at most $40 million annually from the drug trade.^[39]

Health and well-being

Between 2001 and 2021, Afghanistan experienced improvements in health, education and women's rights.^[40][41] Life expectancy increased from 56 to 64 years and the maternal mortality rate was reduced by half. 89% of residents living in cities have access to clean water, up from 16% in 2001. The rate of child marriage has been reduced by 17%.^[40][42] The population of Afghanistan increased by more than 50% between 2001 and 2014, while its GDP grew eightfold.^[43]

A September 2019 Taliban attack destroyed most buildings of the main hospital in southern Afghanistan and killed almost 40 people, due to which the country is now reportedly struggling to efficiently fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.^{[44] [needs update?]}

Public education

Main article: Education in Afghanistan

See also: Islam and children and Women in Islam

As of 2013, 8.2 million Afghans attended school, up from 1.2 million in 2001.^[45] The literacy rate has risen from 8% to 43% since 2001.^[40]

All Afghan children are legally required to complete class nine. In 2017, Human Rights Watch reported that the Afghan government was unable to provide a system to ensure all children received this level of education and, in practice, many children missed out.^[46] In 2018, UNICEF reported that 3.7 million children between the ages of 7 and 17, or 44 percent, were not attending school.^[47]

As of 2017, the Afghan government cooperated with Taliban forces to provide education services: in Khogyani District, the government is given "nominal control" by local Taliban fighters in return for paying the wages of teachers whom the Taliban appoint in local schools.^[48]

Women's rights

 

A young Afghan girl in Qalat pictured by the 116th Infantry Battalion before receiving school supplies in 2011

Main article: Women's rights in Afghanistan

Prior to the beginning of conflict in 1978, there had been some strides in women's rights in cities, but Afghanistan remained much more conservative than even its neighboring countries. Pashtun areas emphasized tribal honor, which meant that women generally wore full cover light blue burqas. In the most rural areas however, women generally did not wear burqas due to the hard labor of farming.^{[49]: 24–25}

As of 2013, 3.2 million girls attended school, up fewer than 50,000 in 2001.^[50] 39% of girls were attending school in 2017 compared to 6% in 2003. In 2021, a third of students at university were women and 27% of members of parliament were women.^[26] While the Taliban typically opposed girls' education, in 2017 in Khogyani District it allowed girls to receive education in order to improve its standing among local residents.^[48] In 2018, UNICEF reported that in some provinces such as Kandahar, Helmand, Wardak, Paktika, Zabul and Uruzgan, 85 percent of girls were not going to school.^[47]

References

1. "Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the U.S. War in Afghanistan, 2001–2022 | Figures | Costs of War". The Costs of War. Retrieved 2021-09-01.
2. * "Body Count – Casualty Figures after 10 Years of the 'War on Terror' – Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan" 30 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine (PDF), by IPPNW, PGS and PSR, First international edition (March 2015)
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8. King, Anthony (4 November 2016). McFate, Montgomery; Laurence, Janice H. (eds.). "Social science goes to war: the Human Terrain System in Iraq and Afghanistan". International Affairs. 92 (6): 1525–1526. doi:10.1111/1468-2346.12765. ISSN 0020-5850.
9. Jolly, David (14 February 2016). "Afghanistan Had Record Civilian Casualties in 2015, U.N. Says". The New York Times. from the original on 18 February 2016. Retrieved 6 February 2017.
10. "Afghan civilian casualties at record high in 2016: UN". Al Jazeera English. 6 February 2017. from the original on 6 February 2017. Retrieved 6 February 2017.
11. "Quarterly Report to Congress: Section 2" (PDF). Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. 30 April 2021. p. 34. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
12. Paton Walsh, Nick (7 October 2021). "Hundreds of billions were spent by the US in Afghanistan. Here are 10 of the starkest examples of 'waste, fraud and abuse'". CNN. Retrieved 2021-10-07.
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15. (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 January 2013. Retrieved 10 April 2014.
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17. Linda, Bilmes (March 2013). "The Financial Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan: How Wartime Spending Decisions Will Constrain Future National Security Budgets". HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series. Retrieved 13 August 2021.
18. Lardner, Richard (30 August 2011). . Huffington Post. Archived from the original on 24 October 2011. Retrieved 30 August 2011.
19. "US scraps tons of gear as it leaves Afghanistan: Report". Hurryiet Daily News. Agence France-Presse. 21 June 2013. from the original on 7 December 2017. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
20. "Kabul: US money wasted". The Week (page 7). 9 August 2013.
21. "US spending in Afghanistan fueled rampant corruption, reports say". The World. 11 December 2019.
22. "The War in Afghanistan Was Doomed From the Start". Slate. 9 December 2019.
23. UNHCR country operations profile – Afghanistan 4 June 2012 at the Wayback Machine unhcr.org
24. Afghan Refugees, Costs of War, . Archived from the original on 10 March 2013. Retrieved 5 March 2013., 2012
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27. Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. "Afghanistan". UNHCR. from the original on 30 July 2019. Retrieved 30 July 2019.
28. "'The new Afghanistan is a myth. It's time to go and get a job abroad'". The Guardian. 5 February 2006.
29. Kozhevnikov, Roman (23 October 2009). "Tajikistan will need help with Afghan refugees – UNHCR". Reuters – via www.reuters.com.
30. Afghans fleeing war find misery in urban slums 17 February 2015 at the Wayback Machine February 2012, Amnesty International "Afghan refugees abandoned by their own government, report finds: About half a million Afghans who fled homes because of violence are living in desperate conditions, says Amnesty" 5 February 2017 at the Wayback Machine, The Guardian, 23 February 2012
31. "Pakistan took in most Afghan refugees in 2020, India at 12th place after UK". Deccan Herald. 20 August 2021.
32. Nicole Gaouette, Jennifer Hansler, Barbara Starr and Oren Liebermann. "The last US military planes have left Afghanistan, marking the end of the United States' longest war". CNN. Retrieved 2021-08-30.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
33. "Afghan refugees, migrants protest in UAE over uncertain future". Reuters. Retrieved 24 August 2022.
34. Chouvy, Pierre-Arnaud (2010). Opium: uncovering the politics of the poppy. Harvard University Press. pp. 52ff.
35. Thourni, Francisco E. (2006). Frank Bovenkerk (ed.). The Organized Crime Community: Essays in Honor of Alan A. Block. Springer. p. 130. ISBN 978-0-387-39019-2.
36. Lyman, Michael D. (2010). Drugs in Society: Causes, Concepts and Control. Elsevier. p. 309. ISBN 978-1-4377-4450-7.
37. "Is Afghanistan's Drug Trade Paying Al Qaeda?". ABC News. from the original on 30 April 2008. Retrieved 27 September 2007.
38. "Afghanistan riddled with drug ties". Christian Science Monitor. from the original on 30 September 2007. Retrieved 27 September 2007.
39. "Profits and poppy: Afghanistan's illegal drug trade a boon for Taliban". Reuters. 16 August 2021. Retrieved 18 August 2021.
40. "Counting the costs of America's 20-year war in Afghanistan". AP NEWS. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 6 May 2021.
41. Jazeera, Al. "Afghanistan: Visualising the impact of 20 years of war". interactive.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
42. cf. Kristof, Nicholas D., "A Merciful War", 28 June 2017 at the Wayback Machine The New York Times, 1 February 2002. "By my calculations, our invasion of Afghanistan may end up saving one million lives over the next decade. ... But now aid is pouring in and lives are being saved on an enormous scale. UNICEF, for example, has vaccinated 734,000 children against measles over the last two months, in a country where virtually no one had been vaccinated against the disease in the previous 10 years. Because measles often led to death in Afghanistan, the vaccination campaign will save at least 35,000 children's lives each year. ... Heidi J. Larson of UNICEF says that if all goes well, child and maternal mortality rates will drop in half in Afghanistan over the next five years. That would mean 112,000 fewer children and 7,500 fewer pregnant women dying each year."
43. Coll, Steve (2019). Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Penguin Group. pp. 661–662. ISBN 9780143132509. cf. "Population, total–Afghanistan". World Bank. Retrieved 2022-02-20.
44. "Civil war, poverty and now the virus: Afghanistan stands on the brink". The Guardian. 2 May 2020. Retrieved 2 May 2020.
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47. "Up to 60 percent of Afghan girls out of school: report". www.aljazeera.com. 3 June 2018. Retrieved 11 April 2021.
48. Mujib Mashal (25 December 2017). "In Tangled Afghan War, a Thin Line of Defense Against ISIS". The New York Times. from the original on 26 December 2017. Retrieved 26 December 2017.
49. Malkasian, Carter (2021). The American war in Afghanistan : a history. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-755077-9. OCLC 1240264784.
50. Successes and challenges in Afghan girls' education 23 November 2018 at the Wayback Machine. BBC News. 11 October 2012.