2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
The 2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 29, 2020 and was the fourth nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The South Carolina primary was an open primary and awarded 64 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 54 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Former vice president Joe Biden and senator Bernie Sanders were the only candidates to earn delegates. Biden won 48.7% of the popular vote and notably placed first in every county in the state; it was his first ever win in a presidential primary. Sanders came in second place and won 19.8% of the popular vote. Businessman Tom Steyer, who had staked his entire campaign on the state, placed third but did not surpass the threshold and dropped out of the race, endorsing Biden.
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64 delegates (54 pledged, 10 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The primary was widely interpreted as a turning point for the 2020 primaries, with Joe Biden gaining momentum going into the pivotal Super Tuesday races three days later. Following successes in the previous primaries, former mayor Pete Buttigieg and senator Amy Klobuchar received very disappointing results and initially wanted to stay in the race, but they both suspended their campaigns shortly before Super Tuesday and endorsed Biden on the day before.[1][2][3] While Biden and former mayor Michael Bloomberg were left as the only moderates afterwards, the majority coalesced around Biden in the race against left-wing candidates Sanders and senator Elizabeth Warren.[4]
Procedure edit
Primary elections were held on Saturday, February 29, 2020. In the open primary, candidates had to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 54 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, 35 were allocated on the basis of the results within each congressional district, between 3 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's seven congressional districts. Another 7 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 12 at-large delegates.[5]
The precinct reorganization meetings subsequently were held on March 14, 2020, to choose delegates for the county conventions, directly followed by county conventions until March 31, to elect delegates to the state convention. On May 30, 2020, the state convention met in Columbia to elect all pledged national convention delegates. Delegates were allowed to participate from remote places due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The delegation also included 10 unpledged PLEO delegates: 8 members of the Democratic National Committee and 2 representatives from Congress.[5]
Voting was done by each voter selecting choices on a screen, so the machine printed a ballot with chosen names and a bar code. Voters could check the printed names before putting the ballot in the ballot box, though few do that.[6] A scanner counted the bar codes, not the names,[7] and no audit was required to check if the machines worked correctly.[8]
Voters could absentee vote in-person until February 28, 2020, at 5:00 pm local time (EST) or submit absentee votes by mail. Election officials recommended applying to absentee vote by-mail a week in advance so that voters had time to receive their absentee ballot and mail it in by election day.[9][10] Polling places closed at 7:00 pm; however, anyone standing in line at 7:00 pm were still allowed to vote.[11]
Candidates edit
There was a $20,000 filing fee to get on the ballot, the largest in the nation. Along with the filing fee, an application[13] was required to be submitted to the South Carolina State committee by December 4, 2019.
The following candidates were placed on the ballot:[14]
- Joe Biden
- Pete Buttigieg
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Amy Klobuchar
- Bernie Sanders
- Tom Steyer
- Elizabeth Warren
- Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
- Cory Booker (withdrawn)
- John Delaney (withdrawn)
- Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
- Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Additionally, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson were both accepted onto the ballot, but withdrew soon enough that they did not appear on the ballot.[15] Write-in votes are not permitted in South Carolina party primaries.[16]
Polling edit
| Polling aggregation | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Pete Buttigieg | Elizabeth Warren | Amy Klobuchar | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided[a] |
| 270 to Win | Feb 28, 2020 | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 35.8% | 20.2% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% |
| RealClear Politics | Feb 28, 2020 | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 39.7% | 24.3% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | –[b] |
| FiveThirtyEight | Feb 28, 2020 | until Feb 27, 2020[c] | 38.4% | 19.1% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 7.7%[d] |
| Average | 38.0% | 21.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 4.9%[e] | ||
| South Carolina primary results (February 29, 2020) | 48.7% | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | – | ||
| Polling in January and February 2020 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[f] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |
| South Carolina primary (popular vote) | Feb 29, 2020 | – | – | 48.65% | – | 8.2% | 1.26% | 3.13% | 19.77% | 11.34% | 7.07% | 0.2% | 0.38%[g] | – | |
| Atlas Intel | Feb 25–28, 2020 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | – | 8% | 2% | 4% | 24% | 12% | 7% | – | 2% | 6% | |
| Emerson College | Feb 26–27, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | – | 11% | 2% | 6% | 25% | 11% | 5% | – | – | – | |
| Trafalgar Group | Feb 26–27, 2020 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 43.9% | – | 9.6% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 22.8% | 10.5% | 5.6% | – | – | – | |
| Data for Progress | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 1416 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 34% | – | 13% | 3% | 5% | 25% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | |
| Change Research [1]/ Post and Courier | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 28% | – | 11% | 5% | 4% | 24% | 16% | 12% | – | – | 1% | |
| Starboard Communications | Feb 26, 2020 | 1,102 (LV) | ± 2.82% | 40% | – | 9% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 9% | – | – | 12% | |
| Tenth Democratic primary debate | |||||||||||||||
| Monmouth University | Feb 23–25, 2020 | 454 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 36% | – | 6% | 1% | 4% | 16% | 15% | 8% | – | 0% | 15% | |
| Clemson University | Feb 17–25, 2020 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 35% | – | 8% | 2% | 4% | 13% | 17% | 8% | – | – | 12% | |
| East Carolina University | Feb 23–24, 2020 | 1,142 (LV) | ± 3.37% | 31% | – | 6% | 2% | 2% | 23% | 20% | 8% | – | – | 8% | |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 23–24, 2020 | 866 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | – | 7% | 6% | 3% | 21% | 7% | 8% | – | – | 11%[h] | |
| Nevada caucuses | |||||||||||||||
| YouGov/CBS News | Feb 20–22, 2020 | 1,238 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 28% | – | 10% | 1% | 4% | 23% | 18% | 12% | – | 3%[i] | 1% | |
| Marist Poll/NBC News | Feb 18–21, 2020 | 539 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 27% | – | 9% | 3% | 5% | 23% | 15% | 8% | – | 2%[j] | 9% | |
| 997 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 25% | – | 9% | 3% | 5% | 24% | 15% | 8% | – | 2%[k] | 9% | |||
| Winthrop University | Feb 9–19, 2020 | 443 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | – | 7% | 1% | 4% | 19% | 15% | 6% | 1%[l] | 2%[m] | 22% | |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 23% | – | 11% | 4% | 9% | 21% | 13% | 11% | – | 4%[n] | 4% | |
| Change Research/The Welcome Party | Feb 12–14, 2020 | 1015 (LV) | – | 23% | – | 15% | 1% | 8% | 23% | 20% | 9% | – | – | 1% | |
| East Carolina University | Feb 12–13, 2020 | 703 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 28% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 14% | 7% | – | 0% | 8% | |
| New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||||
| Iowa caucus | |||||||||||||||
| Zogby Analytics | Jan 31 – Feb 3, 2020 | 277 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 28% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 1% | 0%[o] | 8% | |
| East Carolina University | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 | 469 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 37% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 14% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0%[p] | 10% | |
| Change Research/ Post and Courier | Jan 26–29, 2020 | 651 (LV) | ± 4% | 25% | – | 7% | 3% | 2% | 20% | 18% | 11% | 3% | 1%[q] | 10% | |
| Booker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
| GQR Research/Unite the Country[r] | Jan 9–13, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 36%[s] | –[t] | 5%[u] | –[v] | –[w] | 15%[x] | 12%[y] | 10%[z] | –[aa] | –[ab] | –[ac] | |
| Fox News | Jan 5–8, 2020 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 2% | 3%[ad] | 11% | |
| Polling before January 2020 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[f] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
| Change Research/ Post and Courier | Dec 6–11, 2019 | 392 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 27% | 5% | 9% | – | – | 20% | 5% | 19% | 13%[ae] | – |
| Harris withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| YouGov/FairVote [2] | Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 39% | 2% | 10% | 2% | – | 13% | 7% | 10% | 13%[af] | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University | Nov 13–17, 2019 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 33% | 2% | 6% | 3% | – | 11% | 5% | 13% | 7%[ag] | 18% |
| YouGov/CBS News | Nov 6–13, 2019 | 933 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 2% | 8% | 5% | – | 15% | 2% | 17% | 6%[ah] | – |
| University of North Florida | Nov 5–13, 2019 | 426 (LV) | – | 36% | 2% | 3% | 4% | – | 10% | 8% | 10% | 6%[ai] | 23% |
| O'Rourke withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Monmouth University | Oct 16–21, 2019 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 16% | 7%[aj] | 15% |
| Change Research/ Post and Courier | Oct 15–21, 2019 | 731 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 30% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 1% | 13% | 5% | 19% | 11%[ak] | – |
| Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus | Oct 8–10, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 8% | – | 16% | 33%[al] | –[am] |
| YouGov/CBS News | Oct 3–11, 2019 | 915 (RV) | ±3.9% | 43% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 16% | 2% | 18% | 6%[an] | – |
| Gravis Marketing | Oct 3–7, 2019 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 10%[ao] | 19% |
| Fox News | Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 8%[ap] | 16% |
| Winthrop University | Sep 21–30, 2019 | 462 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 17% | 6%[aq] | 12% |
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 22–26, 2019 | 406 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 37% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 16% | 4%[ar] | 10% |
| YouGov/CBS News | Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 | 849 (RV)[as] | ± 4.3% | 43% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 1% | 14% | 9%[at] | – |
| Change Research | Aug 9–12, 2019 | 521 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 1% | 16% | 1% | 17% | 7%[au] | – |
| Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus | Jul 23–25, 2019 | 554 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 31% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 0% | 9% | – | 12% | 8%[av] | 24% |
| Monmouth University | Jul 18–22, 2019 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 9% | 3%[aw] | 17% |
| YouGov/CBS News | Jul 9–18, 2019 | 997 (RV)[ax] | ± 3.8% | 39% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 17% | 1% | 12% | 9%[ay] | – |
| Fox News | Jul 7–10, 2019 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 5% | 3%[az] | 20% |
| Steyer announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Change Research | Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019 | 421 (LV) | – | 27% | 6% | 6% | 21% | 1% | 16% | 0% | 15% | 8%[ba] | – |
| Change Research | Jun 17–20, 2019 | 308 (LV) | – | 39% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 13% | 0% | 15% | 5%[bb] | – |
| Change Research | Jun 11–14, 2019 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 4% | 9% | – | 17% | 8%[bc] | – |
| YouGov/CBS News | May 31 – Jun 12, 2019 | 552 (LV) | – | 45% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 18% | – | 8% | 8%[bd] | – |
| Zogby Analytics | May 23–29, 2019 | 183 (LV) | ± 7.2% | 36% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 13% | – | 12% | 4%[be] | – |
| Tel Opinion Research* | May 22–24, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 2% | 3% | 7% | – | 10% | – | 8% | – | 32% |
| Crantford Research | May 14–16, 2019 | 381 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 4% | 8% | 10% | – | 7% | – | 8% | – | – |
| Change Research | May 6–9, 2019 | 595 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 15% | – | 8% | 5%[bf] | – |
| Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus May 6, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Apr 30 – May 2, 2019 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 12% | – | 5% | 1%[bg] | 20% |
| Biden announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Buttigieg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Change Research | Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2019 | 744 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 14% | – | 6% | 12%[bh] | – |
| – | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 24% | – | 11% | 12%[bi] | – | ||||
| O'Rourke announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Emerson College April 27, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 | 291 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 37% | 6% | 0% | 9% | 5% | 21% | – | 5% | 16%[bj] | – |
| Change Research | Feb 15–18, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 10% | – | 13% | 8% | 14% | – | 9% | 12%[bk] | – |
| – | 28% | 1% | 35% | – | – | – | 20% | 18%[bl] | – | ||||
| Sanders announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Warren announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019 | 557 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 5% | – | 12% | 2% | 8% | – | 4% | 2%[bm] | 31% |
| Head-to-head polling | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
| YouGov/FairVote[3][bn] | Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 73% | 27% | – | – | – | – |
| 66% | – | 34% | – | – | – | ||||
| 61% | – | – | 29% | [bo] | 6% | ||||
| – | 39% | 61% | – | – | – | ||||
| – | 36% | – | 64% | – | – | ||||
| – | – | 54% | 46% | – | – | ||||
| Tel Opinion Research | May 22–24, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 71% | 10% | – | – | – | 19% |
| 70% | – | 15% | – | – | 16% | ||||
| 67% | – | – | 15% | – | 18% | ||||
Results edit
Official results show that Joe Biden won the Democratic primary with 48.65% of the vote, with Bernie Sanders coming in second with 19.77%.[17][18][19]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[20] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 262,336 | 48.65 | 39 |
| Bernie Sanders | 106,605 | 19.77 | 15 |
| Tom Steyer | 61,140 | 11.34 | |
| Pete Buttigieg | 44,217 | 8.20 | |
| Elizabeth Warren | 38,120 | 7.07 | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 16,900 | 3.13 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 6,813 | 1.26 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,069 | 0.20 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 765 | 0.14 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 658 | 0.12 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 352 | 0.07 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 288 | 0.05 | |
| Total | 539,263 | 100% | 54 |
Results by county edit
Biden won every county.[21][22]
| County | Biden | % | Sanders | % | Steyer | % | Buttigieg | % | Warren | % | Klobuchar | % | Gabbard | % | Others | % | Rejected ballots | Total votes | Turnout of registered electors in % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbeville | 1,129 | 57.69 | 286 | 14.61 | 312 | 15.94 | 80 | 4.09 | 60 | 3.07 | 42 | 2.15 | 26 | 1.33 | 22 | 1.13 | 3 | 1,960 | 12.54 |
| Aiken | 6,769 | 44.81 | 3,169 | 20.98 | 1,988 | 13.16 | 1,246 | 8.25 | 1,030 | 6.82 | 607 | 4.02 | 194 | 1.28 | 102 | 0.67 | 33 | 15,138 | 13.00 |
| Allendale | 552 | 58.29 | 119 | 12.57 | 241 | 25.45 | 9 | 0.95 | 17 | 1.80 | 2 | 0.21 | 2 | 0.21 | 5 | 0.53 | 0 | 947 | 16.37 |
| Anderson | 5,564 | 41.83 | 3,124 | 23.49 | 1,808 | 13.59 | 988 | 7.43 | 984 | 7.40 | 524 | 3.94 | 230 | 1.73 | 80 | 0.61 | 16 | 13,318 | 11.05 |
| Bamberg | 1,099 | 58.77 | 277 | 14.81 | 387 | 20.70 | 26 | 1.39 | 43 | 2.30 | 19 | 1.02 | 4 | 0.21 | 15 | 0.81 | 6 | 1,876 | 19.82 |
| Barnwell | 1,068 | 59.63 | 274 | 15.30 | 308 | 17.20 | 32 | 1.79 | 49 | 2.74 | 26 | 1.45 | 13 | 0.73 | 21 | 1.17 | 2 | 1,793 | 13.08 |
| Beaufort | 11,275 | 45.83 | 3,749 | 15.24 | 3,009 | 12.23 | 3,067 | 12.47 | 1,699 | 6.91 | 1,371 | 5.57 | 290 | 1.18 | 143 | 0.58 | 43 | 24,646 | 18.81 |
| Berkeley | 10,573 | 49.08 | 4,598 | 21.34 | 2,030 | 9.42 | 1,793 | 8.32 | 1,495 | 6.94 | 527 | 2.45 | 383 | 1.78 | 143 | 0.66 | 31 | 21,573 | 16.23 |
| Calhoun | 1,118 | 59.88 | 288 | 15.43 | 302 | 16.18 | 47 | 2.52 | 42 | 2.25 | 34 | 1.82 | 25 | 1.34 | 11 | 0.58 | 5 | 1,872 | 17.69 |
| Charleston | 28,292 | 44.30 | 12,245 | 19.17 | 4,734 | 7.41 | 8,078 | 12.65 | 6,932 | 10.85 | 2,302 | 3.60 | 1,013 | 1.59 | 268 | 0.42 | 84 | 63,948 | 21.78 |
| Cherokee | 1,812 | 57.14 | 674 | 21.22 | 347 | 10.94 | 104 | 3.28 | 106 | 3.34 | 66 | 2.08 | 38 | 1.20 | 25 | 0.79 | 2 | 3,173 | 9.60 |
| Chester | 2,033 | 63.77 | 633 | 19.86 | 223 | 6.99 | 102 | 3.20 | 88 | 2.76 | 58 | 1.82 | 23 | 0.72 | 28 | 0.89 | 6 | 3,194 | 15.56 |
| Chesterfield | 1,825 | 64.06 | 537 | 18.85 | 225 | 7.90 | 90 | 3.16 | 76 | 2.67 | 44 | 1.54 | 26 | 0.91 | 26 | 0.92 | 3 | 2,852 | 10.93 |
| Clarendon | 2,694 | 68.50 | 487 | 12.38 | 434 | 11.03 | 97 | 2.47 | 83 | 2.11 | 62 | 1.58 | 36 | 0.92 | 40 | 1.03 | 15 | 3,948 | 17.14 |
| Colleton | 2,318 | 57.76 | 679 | 16.92 | 64 | 1.59 | 73 | 1.82 | 174 | 4.34 | 526 | 13.11 | 174 | 4.34 | 26 | 0.63 | 5 | 4,018 | 16.00 |
| Darlington | 4,231 | 61.11 | 1,105 | 15.96 | 911 | 13.16 | 287 | 4.15 | 208 | 3.00 | 86 | 1.24 | 55 | 0.79 | 41 | 0.59 | 16 | 6,940 | 16.03 |
| Dillon | 1,485 | 64.09 | 362 | 15.62 | 319 | 13.77 | 39 | 1.68 | 39 | 1.68 | 38 | 1.64 | 8 | 0.35 | 27 | 1.17 | 9 | 2,326 | 12.47 |
| Dorchester | 7,657 | 47.55 | 3,494 | 21.70 | 1,509 | 9.37 | 1,457 | 9.05 | 1,189 | 7.38 | 403 | 2.50 | 316 | 1.96 | 77 | 0.48 | 21 | 16,123 | 15.24 |
| Edgefield | 1,327 | 55.87 | 419 | 17.64 | 370 | 15.58 | 77 | 3.24 | 89 | 3.75 | 44 | 1.85 | 20 | 0.84 | 29 | 1.21 | 7 | 2,382 | 13.84 |
| Fairfield | 2,352 | 61.09 | 428 | 11.12 | 773 | 20.08 | 84 | 2.18 | 88 | 2.29 | 47 | 1.22 | 50 | 1.30 | 28 | 0.73 | 10 | 3,860 | 24.63 |
| Florence | 8,676 | 58.82 | 2,635 | 17.86 | 1,877 | 12.73 | 569 | 3.86 | 607 | 4.12 | 221 | 1.50 | 83 | 0.56 | 82 | 0.57 | 29 | 14,779 | 16.76 |
| Georgetown | 4,776 | 52.46 | 1,574 | 17.62 | 1,018 | 11.39 | 697 | 7.80 | 376 | 4.21 | 327 | 3.66 | 114 | 1.28 | 52 | 0.59 | 16 | 8,950 | 20.19 |
| Greenville | 20,661 | 38.17 | 13,376 | 24.71 | 5,774 | 10.67 | 5,688 | 10.51 | 5,207 | 9.62 | 2,352 | 4.35 | 830 | 1.53 | 235 | 0.43 | 57 | 54,180 | 16.45 |
| Greenwood | 2,693 | 47.88 | 1,060 | 18.85 | 1,091 | 19.40 | 278 | 4.94 | 241 | 4.29 | 165 | 2.93 | 57 | 1.01 | 39 | 0.70 | 7 | 5,631 | 13.75 |
| Hampton | 1,116 | 53.09 | 319 | 15.18 | 541 | 25.74 | 33 | 1.57 | 40 | 1.90 | 18 | 0.86 | 12 | 0.57 | 23 | 1.10 | 10 | 2,112 | 16.46 |
| Horry | 13,281 | 43.82 | 6,757 | 22.29 | 3,841 | 12.67 | 2,877 | 9.49 | 1,724 | 5.69 | 1,269 | 4.19 | 387 | 1.28 | 175 | 0.58 | 59 | 30,370 | 13.02 |
| Jasper | 1,794 | 52.75 | 543 | 15.97 | 573 | 16.85 | 189 | 5.56 | 122 | 3.59 | 110 | 3.23 | 42 | 1.23 | 28 | 0.83 | 5 | 3,406 | 16.72 |
| Kershaw | 3,577 | 55.29 | 1,083 | 16.74 | 896 | 13.85 | 361 | 5.58 | 308 | 4.76 | 144 | 2.23 | 67 | 1.04 | 34 | 0.54 | 13 | 6,483 | 15.37 |
| Lancaster | 4,340 | 51.48 | 1,695 | 20.11 | 365 | 4.33 | 858 | 10.18 | 567 | 6.73 | 422 | 5.01 | 112 | 1.33 | 71 | 0.84 | 15 | 8,445 | 13.43 |
| Laurens | 2,413 | 49.76 | 1,001 | 20.64 | 748 | 15.43 | 204 | 4.21 | 244 | 5.03 | 120 | 2.47 | 73 | 1.51 | 46 | 0.95 | 10 | 4,859 | 12.19 |
| Lee | 1,876 | 68.87 | 332 | 12.19 | 364 | 13.36 | 49 | 1.80 | 53 | 1.95 | 11 | 0.40 | 18 | 0.66 | 21 | 0.76 | 7 | 2,731 | 23.50 |
| Lexington | 9,720 | 39.87 | 5,758 | 23.62 | 2,827 | 11.60 | 2,573 | 10.55 | 2,094 | 8.59 | 795 | 3.26 | 502 | 2.06 | 111 | 0.46 | 15 | 24,395 | 13.00 |
| Marion | 2,735 | 66.87 | 625 | 15.28 | 508 | 12.42 | 60 | 1.47 | 78 | 1.91 | 38 | 0.93 | 13 | 0.32 | 33 | 0.81 | 13 | 4,103 | 19.52 |
| Marlboro | 1,485 | 61.44 | 309 | 12.78 | 487 | 20.15 | 29 | 1.20 | 35 | 1.45 | 34 | 1.41 | 13 | 0.54 | 25 | 1.04 | 9 | 2,426 | 13.59 |
| McCormick | 730 | 48.18 | 208 | 13.73 | 381 | 25.15 | 68 | 4.49 | 42 | 2.77 | 54 | 3.56 | 16 | 1.06 | 16 | 1.06 | 4 | 1,519 | 20.62 |
| Newberry | 1,787 | 55.41 | 482 | 14.95 | 460 | 14.26 | 205 | 6.36 | 124 | 3.84 | 83 | 2.57 | 57 | 1.77 | 27 | 0.84 | 4 | 3,229 | 13.66 |
| Oconee | 2,181 | 37.60 | 1,392 | 24.00 | 742 | 12.79 | 560 | 9.66 | 405 | 6.98 | 403 | 6.95 | 81 | 1.40 | 36 | 0.61 | 5 | 5,805 | 11.07 |
| Orangeburg | 9,089 | 69.86 | 1,388 | 10.67 | 1,690 | 12.99 | 238 | 1.83 | 370 | 2.84 | 72 | 0.55 | 71 | 0.55 | 92 | 0.70 | 20 | 13,030 | 22.91 |
| Pickens | 2,513 | 32.62 | 2,141 | 27.79 | 901 | 11.70 | 761 | 9.88 | 823 | 10.68 | 375 | 4.87 | 163 | 2.12 | 27 | 0.35 | 4 | 7,708 | 10.45 |
| Richland | 35,869 | 53.15 | 11,347 | 16.81 | 8,269 | 12.25 | 4,491 | 6.65 | 5,392 | 7.99 | 1,285 | 1.90 | 528 | 0.78 | 309 | 0.45 | 65 | 67,555 | 25.71 |
| Saluda | 782 | 54.01 | 262 | 18.09 | 243 | 16.78 | 54 | 3.73 | 51 | 3.52 | 27 | 1.86 | 15 | 1.04 | 14 | 0.97 | 3 | 1,451 | 12.52 |
| Spartanburg | 9,977 | 42.31 | 5,870 | 24.89 | 2,911 | 12.34 | 1,849 | 7.84 | 1,816 | 7.70 | 749 | 3.18 | 278 | 1.18 | 131 | 0.56 | 31 | 23,613 | 12.45 |
| Sumter | 8,375 | 65.41 | 1,673 | 13.07 | 1,667 | 13.02 | 406 | 3.17 | 386 | 3.01 | 122 | 0.95 | 74 | 0.58 | 101 | 0.80 | 23 | 12,827 | 18.34 |
| Union | 1,295 | 57.22 | 430 | 19.00 | 322 | 14.23 | 58 | 2.56 | 73 | 3.23 | 34 | 1.50 | 19 | 0.84 | 32 | 1.42 | 2 | 2,265 | 13.72 |
| Williamsburg | 3,682 | 70.08 | 708 | 13.48 | 605 | 11.52 | 47 | 0.89 | 94 | 1.79 | 19 | 0.36 | 45 | 0.86 | 54 | 1.04 | 16 | 5,270 | 24.34 |
| York | 11,556 | 43.60 | 6,551 | 24.72 | 1,242 | 4.69 | 3,110 | 11.73 | 2,307 | 8.70 | 1,241 | 4.68 | 338 | 1.28 | 159 | 0.60 | 35 | 26,539 | 14.44 |
| Statewide total | 262,336 | 48.65 | 106,605 | 19.77 | 61,140 | 1.34 | 44,217 | 8.20 | 38,120 | 7.07 | 16,900 | 3.13 | 6,813 | 1.26 | 12132 | 2.25 | 794 | 540,057 | 16.38 |
Aftermath edit
Joe Biden's overwhelming victory, his first-ever primary win in his three presidential runs,[23][24] gave his campaign new momentum going into Super Tuesday after lackluster performances in Iowa and New Hampshire and a distant second-place finish in Nevada.[25] The Biden campaign claimed that the outcome proved he had the most diverse coalition of any Democratic candidate, as Iowa's and New Hampshire's Democratic electorates are over 90% white, while South Carolina's Democratic electorate is nearly 60% black.[26] Biden's success in the primary helped him overtake the lead in the then-popular vote from front-runner Bernie Sanders, who came in second.[25]
Despite Pete Buttigieg's initial claims that he would stay in the race following the primary, he suspended his presidential campaign the next day. In his concession speech, Buttigieg claimed he would have a negative effect on the race if he stayed in, which many took as Buttigieg not wanting to split the moderate vote in order to assist Biden.[27] However, while Buttigieg called Biden before making his announcement, he did not immediately endorse him. One day later, on the day before Super Tuesday, Buttigieg publicly endorsed Biden while speaking at Biden's rally in Dallas, Texas.[28]
Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar both had lackluster performances in South Carolina.[29] However, both candidates stated that they expected the outcome and still had a strong chance of doing well on Super Tuesday.[30] Nonetheless, on March 2, two days after the primary and the day before Super Tuesday, Klobuchar dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden.[31]
Billionaire Tom Steyer, whose campaign was reliant on getting the black vote, dropped out after a lackluster performance in the state. Steyer's campaign had concentrated its advertising efforts on South Carolina, spending more money on television commercials in the state than all the other Democratic candidates combined. Steyer stated in his concession speech that he did not see a path to winning the presidency based on the results.[1]
On February 28, 2020, former Governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe stated that he would consider endorsing Biden if he performed well in the South Carolina primary.[32] Shortly after it was announced that Biden would win the South Carolina primary, McAuliffe announced his endorsement on CNN.[33] In the following days, Biden received a slew of endorsements, including Virginia Congressman Robert C. Scott, U.S. senator from Illinois Tammy Duckworth (who held the Senate seat once occupied by Barack Obama), former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and former 2020 candidates Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, and Virginia Senator and former 2016 vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine.[34][35][36]
Analysis edit
Participation in the 2020 South Carolina presidential primary was significantly higher than it was in the 2016 presidential primary. Official election results indicate that 539,263 votes were cast.[17] This total represented a marked increase over 2016's 370,904 votes[37] and even a slightly higher amount than 2008's 532,468 votes.[38]
Biden's win was deemed a major victory, as he won all 46 counties in the state. The win was largely attributed to his support from 61% of African-American voters (African-American voters make up approximately 60% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina).[39] Before the primary on February 26, House Majority Whip and longtime U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn endorsed Biden.[40] Many cited Clyburn's endorsement as a reason for Biden's wide margin of victory, as Clyburn's endorsement was a deciding factor for many African American voters in South Carolina.[41] Thirty-six percent of all primary voters said that they made their decision after Clyburn's endorsement; of that total, 70% voted for Biden.[42] According to FiveThirtyEight, the outcome significantly boosted Biden's chance of winning multiple Super Tuesday states (especially southern states like North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia).
Sanders came in second place in the primary. He received an estimated 14% of the African-American vote, down from 16% in 2016.[43] Even in the Upstate region of the state, which was seen as friendly towards Sanders,[44] Biden won every county, although his margin of victory was smaller in that region than it was in other parts of South Carolina.[43]
Following the South Carolina primary, pollsters and analysts claimed that Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar were losing momentum at a critical time in the race.[29] Exit polls showed that Buttigieg, who won Iowa and did well in New Hampshire, received only 2% of the black vote despite receiving endorsements from many prominent African Americans.[30] Klobuchar and Warren received little support in South Carolina, possibly because of black voters' lack of familiarity with them.[45]
Following their poor performances, Pete Buttigieg,[46] Amy Klobuchar,[47] and Tom Steyer[1] ended their presidential campaigns before Super Tuesday. This meant that moderate voters coalesced instead of splitting their votes between multiple candidates, giving Joe Biden multiple comeback wins on Super Tuesday.
Notes edit
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined; Bloomberg included as write-in votes are not permitted in SC primaries
- ^ Candidate percentages add up to more than 100%
- ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
- ^ Bloomberg 10.3%; Write-in votes are not permitted in SC primaries; this appears to be based on trendline regression
- ^ Bloomberg only in 538, so no average can be made
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Bennet with 0.14%; Booker with 0.12%; Delaney with 0.07%; Patrick with 0.05%
- ^ Reported as "Someone else/Undecided"
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 2%
- ^ Accumulated responses until he withdrew; name not included afterwards.
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Bennet and Patrick were included until they withdrew; Bennet received no voters; Patrick accumulated few enough to round down to 0%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ Bennet and Patrick with 0%
- ^ Bennet and Patrick with 0%
- ^ Delaney with 1%; Bennet and Patrick with 0%
- ^ The poll's sponsor, Unite the Country, is a pro-Biden super PAC.
- ^ data from 538.com
- ^ not released
- ^ data from 538.com
- ^ not released
- ^ not released
- ^ data from 538.com
- ^ data from 538.com
- ^ data from 538.com
- ^ not released
- ^ not released
- ^ not released
- ^ Booker with 2%; Bennet, Delaney, Patrick, and Williamson with 0%; "None of the above" with 1%
- ^ Gabbard with 4%; Bloomberg with 3%; Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Patrick and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Castro and Delaney with 0%
- ^ Gabbard with 4%; Yang with 3%; Bloomberg and Klobuchar with 2%; Delaney and Patrick with 1%; Bennet, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; Bullock and Castro with no voters
- ^ Yang with 4%; Gabbard, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Patrick and Sestak with 0%
- ^ Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, and Klobuchar with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Messam, Sestak, Williamson, and Yang with 0%; someone else with 2%
- ^ Bloomberg, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Williamson and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam and Sestak with 0%; someone else with 1%
- ^ Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Castro, Delaney and Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Yang with 4%; Gabbard and Klobuchar with 3%; Bennet with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Ryan and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Yang with 2%
- ^ The poll did not announce this result separately; it is listed as part of 'Other'.
- ^ Bennet, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Messam, and Sestak with 0%; "someone else" with 0%
- ^ Bullock, Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard and Williamson with 1%; Bennet and Ryan with 0%
- ^ Bennet, Gabbard, Ryan, Williamson and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Messam with < 0.5%; Sestak with 0%; someone else with 3%
- ^ Yang with 2%; Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro and "Someone else" with 1%; Delaney, Sestak and Bennet with 0%; Bullock, Messam, Ryan and Williamson with less than 0.5%
- ^ Bennet, Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Williamson with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, and Yang with 0%
- ^ poll results among likely voters of this RV sample
- ^ de Blasio, Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Ryan, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Messam, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
- ^ Gabbard with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, Ryan, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Inslee, Messam, and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Yang with 1%; "A different Democratic candidate" with 7%
- ^ Bennet and Klobuchar with 1%; Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Inslee with <1%; Bullock, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
- ^ poll results among likely voters of this RV sample
- ^ Delaney, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Messam, Moulton, and Sestak with 0%
- ^ Delaney, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Sestak with 0%
- ^ Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Gravel, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
- ^ Yang with 2%; Bullock, de Blasio, and Ryan with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Yang with 3%; de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
- ^ Gillibrand, Gravel, Klobuchar, Messam, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 3%
- ^ Gillibrand with 2%; Castro, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, and Inslee with 1%; Delaney, Klobuchar, and Yang with 0%
- ^ Yang with 2%; Abrams, Klobuchar, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
- ^ Klobuchar with 1%
- ^ Abrams with 7%; Castro, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gabbard, Inslee, McAuliffe, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Castro, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Klobuchar with 2%; Delaney, Inslee, Messam, and Yang with 1%; Gabbard and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Gillibrand with 3%; Bloomberg and Gabbard with 2%: Brown and Klobuchar with 1%; Castro, and Delaney with 0%; others with 8%
- ^ Brown and Holder with 2%; Bloomberg, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Swalwell, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, McAuliffe, and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Klobuchar with 5%; Castro with 4%; Delaney with 3%; Gabbard and Williamson with 2%; Gillibrand and Yang with 1%
- ^ Klobuchar with 1%; Gillibrand with 0%
- ^ But for the Biden vs Warren matchup, 'undecided' and 'other' voters are not included in the listed percentages for this poll.
- ^ Would not vote with 4%
References edit
- ^ a b c Grace Panetta (February 29, 2020). "Tom Steyer drops out of the 2020 presidential race". Business Insider. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ Re, Gregg (March 1, 2020). "Buttigieg exits presidential race ahead of Super Tuesday, cementing collapse following strong Iowa showing". Fox News. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
- ^ Corasaniti, Nick; Burns, Alexander (March 2, 2020). "Amy Klobuchar Drops Out of Presidential Race and Plans to Endorse Biden". The New York Times. Retrieved March 2, 2020.
- ^ Beatrice Jin (April 15, 2020). "2016 vs. 2020: How Biden overturned Sanders' turf". Politico. Retrieved April 23, 2020.
- ^ a b "South Carolina Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. from the original on April 11, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
- ^ Bernhard, Matthew, Allison McDonald, Henry Meng, Jensen Hwa, Nakul Bajaj, Kevin Chang, J. Alex Halderman (December 28, 2019). "Can Voters Detect Malicious Manipulation of Ballot Marking Devices?" (PDF). Halderman. (PDF) from the original on January 9, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Geller, Eric. "Doublecheck that ballot: Controversial voting machines make their primary debut in South Carolina". from the original on March 1, 2020. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ "State Audit Laws, South Carolina". from the original on January 4, 2020. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ (PDF). South Carolina Votes. South Carolina Election Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 1, 2020. Retrieved February 16, 2020.
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- ^ "2/29/2020 Presidential Preference Primary—Candidate". South Carolina Election Commission. from the original on February 15, 2020. Retrieved December 16, 2019.
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Saturday was Joe Biden's first-ever win in a presidential primary or caucus.
- ^ Aleem, Zeeshan (March 1, 2020). "Rep. Jim Clyburn's endorsement gave Biden some serious momentum in South Carolina". Vox. Retrieved March 1, 2019.
This is the first primary of the 2020 season Biden has won — and the first primary in three presidential runs that he's ever won [...].
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External links edit
- The Green Papers delegate allocation summary
- South Carolina Democratic Party draft delegate selection plan April 12, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
- FiveThirtyEight South Carolina primary poll tracker
- The Post and Courier South Carolina candidate tracker