2016 Indiana Republican presidential primary

The 2016 Indiana Republican presidential primary was held on May 3 in the U.S. state of Indiana as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. This was a winner-take-all election, so Donald Trump, who came in first in the popular vote, won all the delegates.

2016 Indiana Republican presidential primary

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57 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich Home state New York Texas Ohio Delegate count 57 0 0 Popular vote 591,514 406,783 84,111 Percentage 53.26% 36.63% 7.57%
Donald Trump   Ted Cruz

The Democratic Party held their own Indiana primary on the same day, which was won by Bernie Sanders. Other primaries were not scheduled for that day.

Following Trump's win, both Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns and Trump was declared the presumptive GOP nominee.

Primary

Pre-primary strategies

By late April, Cruz and Kasich had both been eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates, but they still had a chance to accumulate enough delegates to force a contested convention in Cleveland. Realizing this, Cruz and Kasich attempted to focus their efforts in different states, with Cruz challenging Trump head-to-head in Indiana and Kasich challenging Trump head-to-head in Oregon and New Mexico. However, the alliance was tenuous at best, with Kasich telling voters in Indiana the next day to still vote for him and Cruz downplaying the alliance later in the week; it also met with disapproval from 58% of Indiana voters.^[1][2][3]

Final attempts to stop Trump

Indiana was seen as the final state for the "Stop Trump" movement. Indiana, whose delegates were awarded winner-take all statewide and by congressional district, was seen as essential to denying Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.^[4] Following the Acela primaries, Cruz attempted to bolster his chances by announcing that, if nominated, he would name Fiorina as his running mate.^[5] Fiorina had served as a Cruz campaign surrogate since March after suspending her own presidential campaign in February and Cruz hoped that Fiorina could help his campaign in Indiana and her home state of California.^[6] On April 29, 2016, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana, who eventually became Donald Trump's running mate, announced that he would vote for Cruz in the primary election.^[7] However, Cruz's posturing and endorsements proved to be insufficient, as Trump handily won Indiana with 53% of the vote, despite being outspent by a margin of more than 4–1.^[8] Cruz lost Indiana by a wide margin to Trump (53% to 37% with Kasich at 8%) and subsequently dropped out of the race.

Trump emerges as Republican nominee

Cruz lost Indiana by a wide margin to Trump (53% to 37% with Kasich at 8%) and subsequently dropped out of the race. As a result, Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman, tweeted that Trump was the presumptive nominee in the GOP. The next day, Kasich also suspended his campaign, leaving Trump as the only candidate in the race. Despite his endorsement of Cruz, Mike Pence went on to become Trump's running mate.

Opinion polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

List of polls

Main article: United States presidential election in Indiana, 2016 Winner   Donald Trump Primary date May 3, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other Primary results May 3, 2016 Donald Trump 53.25% Ted Cruz 36.64% John Kasich 7.57% Ben Carson 0.80%, Jeb Bush 0.59%, Marco Rubio 0.47%, Rand Paul 0.39%, Chris Christie 0.16%, Carly Fiorina 0.13% Gravis Marketing^[9] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 379 April 28–29, 2016 Donald Trump 44% Ted Cruz 27% John Kasich 9% Undecided 19% ARG^[10] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 400 April 27–28, 2016 Donald Trump 41% Ted Cruz 32% John Kasich 21% Undecided 6% NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist^[11] Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 645 April 26–28, 2016 Donald Trump 49% Ted Cruz 34% John Kasich 13% Undecided 4% IPFW^[12] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 April 13–27, 2016 Ted Cruz 45% Donald Trump 29% John Kasich 13% Undecided 13% Clout Research^[13] Margin of error: ±4.75% Sample size: 423 April 27, 2016 Donald Trump 37.1% Ted Cruz 35.2% John Kasich 16.3% Undecided 11.4% CBS News/YouGov^[14] Margin of error: ± 6.6% Sample size: 548 April 20–22, 2016 Donald Trump 40% Ted Cruz 35% John Kasich 20% Undecided 5% Fox News^[15] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 602 April 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump 41% Ted Cruz 33% John Kasich 16% Undecided 7%, None 2% POS/Howey Politics Indiana/WTHR Channel^[16] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 507 April 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump 37% Ted Cruz 31% John Kasich 22% Undecided 7%, Other 2% Bellwether Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 670 December 2–9, 2015 Donald Trump 26% Ted Cruz 17% Marco Rubio 17% Ben Carson 16%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%

Results

See also: Results of the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

Trump won Indiana by a considerable margin statewide. He won nearly all regions of the state except for several counties in northeast Indiana containing the Fort Wayne and Elkhart areas, which Cruz won.

Indiana Republican primary, May 3, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	591,514	53.26%	57	0	57
Ted Cruz	406,783	36.63%	0	0	0
John Kasich	84,111	7.57%	0	0	0
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	8,914	0.80%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	6,508	0.59%	0	0	0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)	5,175	0.47%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	4,306	0.39%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,738	0.16%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	1,494	0.13%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	1,110,543	100.00%	57	0	57
Source: The Green Papers

References

1. Schwartz, Ian (April 25, 2016). "Kasich on Indiana: 'I Never Told People Not To Vote For Me, They Ought To Vote For Me' | Video". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 4, 2016.
2. Scott, Eugene (April 28, 2016). "Ted Cruz on John Kasich: 'There is no alliance'". CNN. Retrieved April 29, 2016.
3. Mack, Justin L. (May 2, 2016). "Poll: Reversal of fortune, Donald Trump tops Ted Cruz in Indiana". Indystar.com. Retrieved May 4, 2016.
4. "Ted Cruz and John Kasich team up in deal to stop Trump". The Guardian. April 24, 2016. Retrieved April 24, 2016.
5. "Ted Cruz Will Name Carly Fiorina As His Vice Presidential Pick". NPR.
6. Sullivan, Sean; Costa, Robert (April 27, 2016). "Cruz announces Carly Fiorina as his running mate". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 27, 2016.
7. Bradner, Eric (April 29, 2016). "Mike Pence endorses Ted Cruz". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
8. Collinson, Stephen (May 3, 2016). "CNN projects Donald Trump wins Indiana, on cusp of GOP nomination". CNN. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
9. "Current Indiana Polling". Gravis Marketing. May 2, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
10. "2016 Indiana Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Retrieved April 30, 2016.
11. Mark Murray (May 2016). "Donald Trump Leads Cruz by 15 Points in Crucial Indiana Race". NBC News. Retrieved May 1, 2016.
12. "Cruz Ahead in Indiana" (PDF). Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics. Retrieved April 30, 2016.
13. "Survey of Likely GOP Primary Election Voters in Indiana" (PDF). Clout. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
14. "Trump, Clinton have the edge in Pennsylvania, Indiana". YouGov. Retrieved April 25, 2016.
15. "Fox News Poll: Indiana presidential primary". Shaw & Company Research. Retrieved April 23, 2016.
16. "EXCLUSIVE WTHR/HPI Poll: Trump, Clinton have small leads in Indiana, overall tight race". Howey Politics Indiana. April 22, 2016. Retrieved April 23, 2016.