2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout	64.7% (of registered voters) 53.3% (of voting age population)
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 423,778 326,541 Percentage 56.06% 43.20%
County Results Bush   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90% Kerry   50-60%   60-70%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

West Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 8 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, while others considered it a swing state. Democratic President Bill Clinton easily won this state in 1992 and 1996, but Bush carried the state in 2000 with just 51.92% of the vote. West Virginia is the only state to vote against George H. W. Bush both times and vote for George W. Bush both times. On election day, President Bush won here with a 6.53% better margin than his performance in 2000, signaling that the state was trending Republican at the presidential level. This was despite the fact that more than 50% of the state's population were registered Democrats, and both senators were Democrats.

This also marked the last election in which West Virginia voted for the same presidential candidate as neighboring Virginia, and the first election since 1944 in which West Virginia voted more Republican than Virginia. In the four subsequent U.S. presidential races since 2004, the Republican nominee won West Virginia while the Democratic nominee won Virginia. This is the last presidential election in which Fayette County, Brooke County, Logan County, and Mingo County voted Democratic. Bush was the first Republican since William McKinley to carry West Virginia twice.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Likely R
Associated Press	Toss-up
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Lean R
Newsweek	Lean R
New York Times	Lean R
Rasmussen Reports	Likely R
Research 2000	Toss-up
Washington Post	Toss-up
Washington Times	Toss-up
Zogby International	Likely R
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Early on, pre-election polling showed the election as a pure toss up. But after September 14, Bush pulled away and reached 50% or higher in the polls. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 44%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $527,380.^[3] Kerry raised $627,425.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state eight times; Kerry visited the state six times.^[5] A total of between $100,000 and $550,000 was spent each week. As the election went on, both tickets spent less and less here each week.^[6]

Analysis

More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Kerry's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. It often voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Mike Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy. Starting with George W. Bush, however, the state's voters became more receptive to Republicans.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia^[7]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Popular vote		Electoral vote		Swing
				Count	%	Count	%
	Republican	George W. Bush of Texas	Dick Cheney of Wyoming	423,778	56.06%	5	100.00%	4.14%
	Democratic	John Kerry of Massachusetts	John Edwards of North Carolina	326,541	43.20%	0	0.00%	2.39%
	Independent	Ralph Nader of Connecticut	Peter Camejo of California	4,063	0.54%	0	0.00%	0.54%
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik of Texas	Richard Campagna of Iowa	1,405	0.19%	0	0.00%	0.11%
	Independent	John Kennedy (write-in) of -	- of -	13	0.00%	0	0.00%
	Mountain	David Cobb (write-in) of Texas	Pat LaMarche of Maine	5	0.00%	0	0.00%	1.65%
Total				755,887	100.00%	5	100.00%

By county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Barbour	4,004	60.17%	2,610	39.22%	41	0.62%	1,394	20.95%	6,655
Berkeley	21,293	63.03%	12,244	36.24%	248	0.73%	9,049	26.79%	33,785
Boone	4,207	41.25%	5,933	58.18%	58	0.57%	-1,726	-16.93%	10,198
Braxton	2,986	49.35%	3,035	50.16%	30	0.50%	-49	-0.81%	6,051
Brooke	5,189	48.17%	5,493	50.99%	91	0.85%	-304	-2.82%	10,773
Cabell	21,035	55.43%	16,583	43.70%	332	0.87%	4,452	11.73%	37,950
Calhoun	1,588	54.97%	1,266	43.82%	35	1.22%	322	11.15%	2,889
Clay	2,198	53.98%	1,835	45.06%	39	0.95%	363	8.92%	4,072
Doddridge	2,362	74.30%	800	25.17%	17	0.54%	1,562	49.13%	3,179
Fayette	7,881	46.45%	8,971	52.87%	115	0.68%	-1,090	-6.42%	16,967
Gilmer	1,665	58.38%	1,159	40.64%	28	0.99%	506	17.74%	2,852
Grant	4,063	80.50%	963	19.08%	21	0.42%	3,100	61.42%	5,047
Greenbrier	8,358	57.43%	6,084	41.81%	111	0.77%	2,274	15.62%	14,553
Hampshire	5,489	68.65%	2,455	30.70%	52	0.65%	3,034	37.95%	7,996
Hancock	7,298	50.96%	6,906	48.22%	117	0.82%	392	2.74%	14,321
Hardy	3,635	68.90%	1,617	30.65%	24	0.46%	2,018	38.25%	5,276
Harrison	17,111	55.94%	13,238	43.28%	239	0.79%	3,873	12.66%	30,588
Jackson	7,686	58.41%	5,384	40.92%	88	0.66%	2,302	17.49%	13,158
Jefferson	10,539	52.71%	9,301	46.52%	153	0.77%	1,238	6.19%	19,993
Kanawha	44,430	50.53%	43,010	48.92%	488	0.55%	1,420	1.61%	87,928
Lewis	4,445	63.51%	2,475	35.36%	79	1.13%	1,970	28.15%	6,999
Lincoln	4,102	49.35%	4,048	48.70%	162	1.95%	54	0.65%	8,312
Logan	7,047	47.02%	7,877	52.56%	63	0.42%	-830	-5.54%	14,987
Marion	12,150	48.23%	12,771	50.69%	273	1.08%	-621	-2.46%	25,194
Marshall	8,516	56.50%	6,435	42.70%	121	0.80%	2,081	13.80%	15,072
Mason	6,487	54.10%	5,408	45.10%	95	0.80%	1,079	9.00%	11,990
McDowell	2,762	37.84%	4,501	61.67%	36	0.49%	-1,739	-23.83%	7,299
Mercer	13,057	58.34%	9,178	41.01%	144	0.64%	3,879	17.33%	22,379
Mineral	7,854	68.53%	3,518	30.70%	89	0.78%	4,336	37.83%	11,461
Mingo	4,612	43.28%	5,983	56.15%	60	0.56%	-1,371	-12.87%	10,655
Monongalia	17,670	51.51%	16,313	47.55%	323	0.95%	1,357	3.96%	34,306
Monroe	3,590	60.33%	2,311	38.83%	50	0.84%	1,279	21.50%	5,951
Morgan	4,511	65.88%	2,272	33.18%	64	0.93%	2,239	32.70%	6,847
Nicholas	5,485	52.99%	4,788	46.26%	78	0.75%	697	6.73%	10,351
Ohio	11,694	57.35%	8,543	41.89%	155	0.76%	3,151	15.46%	20,392
Pendleton	2,146	60.55%	1,381	38.97%	17	0.48%	765	21.58%	3,544
Pleasants	2,061	60.00%	1,349	39.27%	25	0.73%	712	20.73%	3,435
Pocahontas	2,295	58.58%	1,573	40.15%	50	1.27%	722	18.43%	3,918
Preston	7,855	65.85%	3,963	33.22%	111	0.93%	3,892	32.63%	11,929
Putnam	15,716	62.49%	9,301	36.98%	134	0.53%	6,415	25.51%	25,151
Raleigh	18,519	60.67%	11,815	38.71%	191	0.62%	6,704	21.96%	30,525
Randolph	6,512	56.68%	4,892	42.58%	86	0.75%	1,620	14.10%	11,490
Ritchie	3,086	73.55%	1,070	25.50%	40	0.95%	2,016	48.05%	4,196
Roane	3,440	56.39%	2,612	42.82%	48	0.79%	828	13.57%	6,100
Summers	2,978	53.91%	2,504	45.33%	42	0.76%	474	8.58%	5,524
Taylor	3,893	59.43%	2,617	39.95%	41	0.62%	1,276	19.48%	6,551
Tucker	2,179	60.53%	1,400	38.89%	21	0.58%	779	21.64%	3,600
Tyler	2,798	65.91%	1,401	33.00%	46	1.09%	1,397	32.91%	4,245
Upshur	6,191	66.62%	3,034	32.65%	68	0.73%	3,157	33.97%	9,293
Wayne	10,070	54.11%	8,411	45.20%	128	0.69%	1,659	8.91%	18,609
Webster	1,724	46.42%	1,965	52.91%	25	0.67%	-241	-6.49%	3,714
Wetzel	3,656	51.95%	3,330	47.31%	52	0.74%	326	4.64%	7,038
Wirt	1,727	65.07%	896	33.76%	31	1.17%	831	31.31%	2,654
Wood	24,948	63.60%	14,025	35.75%	254	0.65%	10,923	27.85%	39,227
Wyoming	4,985	57.18%	3,694	42.37%	39	0.45%	1,291	14.81%	8,718
Totals	423,778	56.06%	326,541	43.20%	5,568	0.74%	97,237	12.86%	755,887

 

County Flips:

Democratic   Hold

Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Harrison (Largest city: Clarksburg)
• Kanawha (Largest city: Charleston)
• Lincoln (Largest city: Hamlin)
• Wyoming (Largest city: Mullens)

By congressional district

Bush won all 3 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats.^[8]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	58%	42%	Alan Mollohan
2nd	57%	42%	Shelley Moore Capito
3rd	53%	46%	Nick Rahall

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of WV cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. WV is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

1. Rob Capehart
2. Doug McKinney
3. Dan Moore
4. Richie Robb
5. Larry Faircloth

References

1. . dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on July 20, 2012.
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
5. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
6. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
7. (PDF). p. 5. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.
8. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved May 20, 2015.