2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona. Incumbent one-term Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was elected in 2018 as a Democrat with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022, but remained in the Democratic caucus.^[1]

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →

Party Independent Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Kyrsten Sinema Independent

Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election. U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination.

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

• Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)^[1]

Democratic primary

See also: Replace Sinema Project

Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge the incumbent.^[2] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.^[3] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.^[4] Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an Independent.^[1]

Candidates

Declared

• Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)^[5][6]

Potential

• Paul Penzone, Maricopa County Sheriff (2017–present)^[7]
• Regina Romero, Mayor of Tucson (2019–present)^[8]

Declined

• Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)^[9][10]
• Greg Stanton, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)^[11]

Endorsements

Ruben Gallego

U.S. Senators

• Dennis DeConcini, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (1977–1995)^[12]

U.S. Representative

• Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 7th congressional district^[13]
• Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (2015–present)^[14]
• Ann Kirkpatrick, former U.S. Representative from Arizona's 2nd congressional district^[15]

Local officials

• Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)^[16]

Labor unions

• Communications Workers of America^[17]
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104^[18]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kate Gallego	Ruben Gallego	Kathy Hoffman	Regina Romero	Kyrsten Sinema	Greg Stanton	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)	January 21–24, 2022	673 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	74%	–	–	16%	–	10%
				–	66%	–	–	17%	–	17%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	229 (RV)	± 6.5%	–	47%	–	–	24%	–	29%
				–	–	44%	–	24%	–	32%
				–	–	–	–	25%	47%	28%
Data for Progress (D)^[A]	October 8–10, 2021	467 (LV)	± 5.0%	9%	23%	–	9%	19%	13%	26%
				60%	–	–	–	25%	–	15%
				–	62%	–	–	23%	–	15%
				–	–	–	55%	26%	–	19%
				–	–	–	–	24%	59%	17%

Republican primary

Former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey was considered a potential candidate, but said he would not run.^[19] He would likely have faced a contested primary election due to former President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of him for refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Pro-Trump contenders include congressmen Andy Biggs and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has reportedly been encouraged to run by 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who herself has expressed interest in running for the seat.^[20][21]

Candidates

Announcement pending

• Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present) (announcement expected in early 2023)^[22]

Publicly expressed interest

• Kari Lake, former news anchor and nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022^[21]
• Jim Lamon, solar power executive and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022^[23]
• Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation, former COO of Thiel Capital and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2022^[24][21]
• Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for Governor of Arizona in 2022^[24]
• T.J. Shope, President pro tempore of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from the 16th district (2021–present)^[25]

Potential

• Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)^[26][27]
• Juan Ciscomani, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)^[27]
• Abe Hamadeh, former Maricopa County Prosecutor and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022^[28]
• Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (1995–2001, 2013–2017)^[29]

Declined

• Doug Ducey, former Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)^[30][19]
• David Schweikert, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011–present)^[31]
• Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018^[27][21]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[32]	Tossup	January 24, 2023
Inside Elections^[33]	Battleground	January 6, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[34]	Tossup	January 24, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Kari Lake (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	Jan. 31-Feb. 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	43%	33%	–	24%
				34%	26%	19%	21%
Normington Petts (D)^[B]	January 18–23, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	36%	36%	24%	4%
				50%	45%	–	5%
Blueprint Polling (D)	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	32%	36%	14%	18%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[C]	December 21, 2022	650 (V)	± 3.8%	40%	41%	13%	6%
				48%	47%	–	5%
				–	42%	39%	19%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Doug Ducey (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	Jan. 31-Feb. 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	38%	34%	–	28%
				32%	27%	17%	23%
Normington Petts (D)^[D]	January 18–23, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	37%	31%	27%	5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Blake Masters (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	Jan. 31-Feb. 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	43%	32%	–	26%
				33%	24%	22%	21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Karrin Taylor-Robson (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	Jan. 31-Feb. 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	36%	32%	–	32%
				31%	24%	21%	25%

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
2. This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
3. This poll was sponsored by Ruben Gallego
4. This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC

References

1. Bowman, Bridget (December 15, 2022). "Sinema files campaign papers but re-election decision unclear". MSN. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
2. "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024". October 14, 2021.
3. "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage". CNBC. August 4, 2022. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
4. Kupar, Sahil. "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill". NBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
5. Lah, Kate Sullivan,Kyung (January 23, 2023). "Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema". CNN. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
6. Ulloa, Jazmine (January 23, 2023). "Democrat in Arizona Will Seek Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
7. "Gallego bid kicks off potentially crowded Arizona Senate race". January 23, 2023.
8. "How Kyrsten Sinema's decision to leave the Democratic Party will change the Senate". December 9, 2022.
9. "Democrats Are Ready to Call Kyrsten Sinema's Bluff". December 13, 2022.
10. "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race".
11. "Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema". www.politico.com. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
12. "Journalist's Roundtable: Ruben Gallego runs for Senate".
13. "Eyes on 2024: Mitch Daniels weighs life as a senator". NBC News. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
14. McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
15. "At the Races: Cash course".
16. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/us/politics/kari-lake-arizona-senate.html
17. "CWA Arizona State Council Endorses Rep. Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Communications Workers of America. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
18. "TEAMSTERS ENDORSE RUBEN GALLEGO IN ARIZONA SENATE RACE". finance.yahoo.com. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
19. "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
20. Kapur, Sahil (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's decision to quit the Democratic Party jolts Arizona 2024 Senate race". NBC News.
21. Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
22. @dabs346 (February 22, 2023). "Mark Lamb says he'll be announcing for #AZSen "shortly" and begs for contributions" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
23. "Eyes on 2024: Arizona Senate race shaping up". January 20, 2023.
24. Goodwin, Liz; Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (January 18, 2023). "2024 Senate map is a GOP dream. But candidate strength is unsettled".
25. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/20". Daily Kos. February 20, 2023. Retrieved February 20, 2023.
26. Ferris, Sarah; Allison, Natalie (December 9, 2022). "Sinema party switch jumpstarts Arizona's 2024 Senate battle". POLITICO.
27. Duda, Jeremy (December 12, 2022). "Sinema's switch alters electoral math for GOP and Democrats in 2024". Axios.
28. "Kari Lake, still pushing midterm fraud fiction, edges closer to Senate run". February 19, 2023.
29. Otterbein, Holly (January 5, 2023). "Gallego builds political team ahead of Sinema showdown". Politico.
30. Drucker, David (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's switch upends 2024 Arizona Senate race". Washington Examiner.
31. Roberts, Laurie. "Kari Lake is the GOP's nightmare Senate candidate, but really, who else is there?". Arizona Central.
32. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
33. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
34. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Ruben Gallego (D) for Senate