2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →

Nominee Roy Blunt Jason Kander Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,378,458 1,300,200 Percentage 49.18% 46.39%

County results Congressional district results Township results Precinct results Blunt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Kander:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes

U.S. senator before election Roy Blunt Republican Elected U.S. Senator Roy Blunt Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.^[1][2] Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state.

Republican primary

Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.^[3]

Candidates

Declared

• Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011^[1][4]
• Ryan Luethy, financial services worker^[5]
• Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate^[6]
• Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[6]

Withdrew

• Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)^[6][7][8]

Declined

• Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^[9][10]
• John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)^[11]
• John Lamping, former state senator^[12]

Endorsements

Roy Blunt

Presidents

• George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States^[13]

U.S. Senators

• John Cornyn, Texas; Senate Majority Whip^[14]
• Ted Cruz, Texas; 2016 presidential candidate^[14]

U.S. Representatives

• Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House and U.S. Representative (WI-01)^[15]

Individuals

• John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations^[16]
• Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 California nominee for U.S. Senate, and 2016 presidential candidate^[17]

Organizations

• National Federation of Independent Business^[18]
• National Rifle Association of America^[19]
• United States Chamber of Commerce^[20]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	Kristi Nichols	Bernie Mowinski	Ryan Luethy	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	66%	9%	5%	1%	19%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	John Brunner	Other	Undecided
Remington Research Group	January 2015	1,355	± ?	60%	40%	—	—
Remington Research Group	February 2–3, 2015	747	3.6%	50%	19%	—	32%

Results

 

Results by county:

  Blunt

•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

Republican primary results^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roy Blunt (incumbent)	481,444	72.55%
	Republican	Kristi Nichols	134,025	20.20%
	Republican	Ryan Luethy	29,328	4.42%
	Republican	Bernie Mowinski	18,789	2.83%
Total votes			663,586	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Cori Bush, pastor, nurse and co-director of the Truth Telling Project^[22][23]
• Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri since 2013^[24][25]
• Robert Mack, military veteran^[26]
• Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist^[27][28]

Declined

• Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009^[29]
• Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party^[30][31]
• Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009^[32][33]

Endorsements

Jason Kander

Vice presidents

• Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States^[34]

Governors

• Jay Nixon, Missouri^[35]

U.S. Senators

• Al Franken, Minnesota^[36]
• Martin Heinrich, New Mexico^[37]
• Claire McCaskill, Missouri^[35]
• Harry Reid, Nevada and Senate Minority Leader^[38]
• Jon Tester, Montana^[39]
• Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts^[40]

U.S. Representatives

• Emanuel Cleaver II, Missouri^[35]

Statewide Officials

• Chris Koster, Missouri Attorney General and candidate for Governor of Missouri^[35]
• Clint Zweifel, Missouri State Treasurer^[35]

Organizations

• Americans for Responsible Solutions^[41]
• Daily Kos^[42]
• League of Conservation Voters^[43]
• Planned Parenthood^[44]
• Sierra Club^[45]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jason Kander	Cori Bush	Robert Mack	Chief Wana Dubie	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	67%	7%	4%	2%	20%

Results

 

Results by county:

  Kander

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

Democratic primary results^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jason Kander	223,492	69.87%
	Democratic	Cori Bush	42,453	13.27%
	Democratic	Chief Wana Dubie	30,432	9.51%
	Democratic	Robert Mack	23,509	7.35%
Total votes			319,886	100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jonathan Dine, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012^[6]
• Herschel Young^[46][47]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	2,002	54.90%
	Libertarian	Herschel Young	1,642	45.06%
Total votes			3,644	100.00%

Constitution primary

Candidates

Declared

• Fred Ryman^[6]

Results

Constitution primary results^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	545	100.00%
Total votes			545	100.00%

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

• Johnathan McFarland^[48][49]

Write-in

• Gina Bufe^[50]
• Patrick Lee^[51][52][53]

General election

Debates

Date	Host	Moderator	Link(s)	Participants
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
				Roy Blunt	Jonathan Dine	Jason Kander	Jonathan McFarland	Fred Ryman
September 30, 2016	Associated Press	David Lieb	Video	P	P	P	P	P

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[54]	Tossup	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[55]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[56]	Tossup	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[57]	Lean R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[58]	Tossup	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt (R)	Jason Kander (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,368	± 4.6%	44%	51%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,119	± 4.6%	43%	51%	—	6%
Emerson College	November 4–5, 2016	750	± 3.5%	45%	46%	5%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	879	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Clarity Campaign Labs	November 1–2, 2016	1,036	± 3.1%	47%	45%	—	8%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	774	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,083	± 3.0%	46%	44%	—	9%
Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,722	± 2.4%	48%	44%	3%^[59]	5%
DFM Research	October 27 – November 1, 2016	508	± 4.4%	41%	41%	9%	9%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	649	± 4.6%	46%	50%	—	4%
Emerson College	October 28–31, 2016	650	± 3.8%	45%	45%	6%	4%
Monmouth University	October 28–31, 2016	405	± 4.9%	47%	46%	3%	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	671	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)	October 27–28, 2016	1,698	± 2.4%	47%	44%	4%^[60]	5%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	October 24–26, 2016	625	± 4.0%	47%	46%	2%	5%
Emerson College	October 17–19, 2016	600	± 3.9%	44%	44%	4%	8%
Google Consumer Surveys	October 12–14, 2016	521	± 4.2%	45%	52%	—	3%
Monmouth University	October 9–11, 2016	406	± 4.9%	46%	44%	3%^[61]	7%
Emerson College	September 9–13, 2016	600	± 3.6%	40%	42%	10%	8%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)	September 1–2, 2016	1,275	± 3.0%	47%	40%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	August 26–27, 2016	1,055	± 3.0%	47%	43%	—	10%
Monmouth University	August 19–22, 2016	401	± 4.9%	48%	43%	3%^[62]	7%
Remington Research Group (R)	August 5–6, 2016	1,280	± 3.0%	47%	40%	6%^[63]	7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	47%	43%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	July 11–12, 2016	959	± 3.2%	41%	38%	—	21%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)	March 25–26, 2016	927	± 3.2%	44%	37%	—	19%
DFM Research	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	49%	35%	2%	14%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) March 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine	October 30–31, 2015	783	± 3.5%	43%	33%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	40%	35%	—	25%
Remington Research Group (R)	February 19, 2015	957	± 3.2%	49%	36%	—	14%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri^[64]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roy Blunt (incumbent)	1,378,458	49.18%	−5.05%
	Democratic	Jason Kander	1,300,200	46.39%	+5.76%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	67,738	2.42%	−0.60%
	Green	Johnathan McFarland	30,743	1.10%	N/A
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	25,407	0.91%	−1.22%
	Write-in		95	0.03%	N/A
Total votes			2,802,641	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
• Clay (Largest city: Kansas City^[a])
• Platte (Largest city: Kansas City^[a])

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2016

Notes

1. Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.

References

1. "Ahead of the 2016 curve: Roy Blunt has a fundraiser on election night 2014". The Washington Examiner. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
2. "Missouri U.S. Senate Results: Roy Blunt Wins". The New York Times. August 1, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 12, 2018.
3. Deirdre Shesgreen (February 17, 2015). "Blunt had a clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
4. Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). . Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
5. "Blunt, Kander easily win their Senate nominations | Politics | stltoday.com". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 3, 2016. Retrieved August 12, 2021.
6. Horvath, Dave (February 23, 2016). "Three file for sheriff's race". The Neosho Daily News. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
7. Hoak, Ashley (October 23, 2015). "Missouri Secretary of State shares plans for 2016 U.S. Senate run". KTVO.com. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
8. Hacker, John (February 29, 2016). . The Carthage Press. Archived from the original on March 7, 2016. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
9. Jim Stinson (July 15, 2014). "Akin won't rule out 2016 run against Blunt". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
10. Kendall Breitman (February 26, 2015). "Akin: I'm not running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 26, 2015.
11. Shesgreen, Deirdre (February 17, 2015). "Blunt has clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved February 17, 2015.
12. "July 2016 Tip Sheet". The Missouri Times. July 15, 2015. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
13. "Invitation to Fund-Raiser for Roy Blunt headlined by George W. Bush". The New York Times. June 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
14. Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
15. "Ryan stumps hard for GOP Senate". Politico. October 3, 2016.
16. . boltonpac.com. May 24, 2016. Archived from the original on October 28, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
17. Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). ".@RoyBlunt is the conservative leader Missouri needs. Here's why I'm endorsing him: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
18. "Small Business endorses Roy Blunt for Re-election". National Federation of Independent Business. August 22, 2016. from the original on August 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
19. Raasch, Chuck (August 9, 2016). "Blunt gets NRA Endorsement". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. from the original on August 12, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
20. "Roy Blunt scores U.S. Chamber endorsement in Senate Race". KCUR. May 2, 2016. from the original on May 3, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
21. . Missouri Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Archived from the original on November 23, 2016. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
22. Rivas, Rebecca (February 11, 2016). "Black Challengers of Democrat incumbents fight with party over access". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
23. . Archived from the original on February 13, 2016. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
24. Kraske, Steve (January 30, 2015). "Secretary of State Kander pondering U.S. Senate run in Missouri". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved January 30, 2015.
25. "PRESS RELEASE: Jason Kander Announces He Will Run for United States Senate". The Missouri Times. February 19, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
26. Salter, Jim (July 23, 2016). "Blunt, Kander looking ahead to November in Senate race". Columbia Missouran. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
27. ""Chief Wana Dubie" announces bid for U.S. Senate from Missouri". July 16, 2015.
28. "Wana Dubie officially first US Senate candidate from Salem". Retrieved February 25, 2016.
29. Cillizza, Chris (September 19, 2013). "Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon steps forward, but toward what?". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2014.
30. Faughn, Scott (October 20, 2014). "2016 Outlook". The Missouri Times. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
31. Fox, Jeff (February 27, 2015). "Sanders says he won't run for state office". The Examiner. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
32. Bologna, Giacoma (October 2, 2013). "Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched". Roll Call. Retrieved October 2, 2013.
33. "Missouri Treasurer Zweifel won't run for office". Kansas City Star. November 18, 2013. Retrieved November 19, 2013.
34. "MO-Sen: VP Joe Biden goes all in to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. August 16, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
35. . jasonkander.com. February 19, 2015. Archived from the original on September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
36. "MO-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) steps up to help Jason Kander (D) to defeat Roy Blunt (R)". Daily Kos. May 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
37. "MO & FL-Sen: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D. NM) wants to flip these two seats to end the obstruction". Daily Kos. March 23, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
38. "MO-Sen: Harry Reid (D. NV) helps Jason Kander (D) pull an upset victory". Daily Kos. August 1, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
39. "MO-Sen: Jon Tester (D. MT) wishes Jason Kander (D) happy birthday by helping him fuel his campaign". Daily Kos. March 4, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
40. "MO-Sen: Jason Kander (D) proudly touts having Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on Team Kander". Daily Kos. June 29, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
41. Vazquez, Maegan (September 15, 2016). . Independent Journal Review. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
42. . Daily Kos. Archived from the original on September 22, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
43. Blatt, Hannah (May 17, 2016). . League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on June 10, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
44. "Planned Parenthood Action Fund endorses Missouri's Jason Kander in Senate Race". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. August 11, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
45. "Sierra Club endorses Jason Kander for U.S. Senate". Sierra Club. August 8, 2016. Retrieved September 21, 2016.
46. . Vote-MO. Archived from the original on July 15, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
47. "Herschel Young Candidate for the People". Facebook. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
48. . Missouri Green Party. Archived from the original on September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
49. "Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
50. Blatchford, Taylor (June 10, 2016). "First-time competitor brings passion for race walking, politics to Senior Games". Columbia Missourian. Retrieved June 12, 2016.
51. "A unique campaign". May 25, 2016. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
52. Dundon, Eric (July 7, 2016). "Missouri Senate campaign swims against popular political current, but can it have an impact?". Retrieved August 31, 2016.
53. "Lee: No kicking the can". Retrieved August 31, 2016.
54. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
55. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
56. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
57. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
58. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
59. Jonathan Dine (L), Fred Ryman (C), and "Others" each with 1%
60. "Others" with 3% and Fred Ryman (C) with 1%
61. Jonathan Dine (L) with 3%
62. Jonathan Dine (L) with 3%
63. Jonathan Dine (L) with 4% and Fred Ryman (C) with 2%
64. . Missouri Secretary of State. December 12, 2016. Archived from the original on June 15, 2019. Retrieved March 17, 2017.

External links

Official campaign websites