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Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

April 18, 2024

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.[1]

Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[2] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote edit

Graphical summary edit

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

 
Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.625). Left and right-hand axis markers indicate the actual poll results from the 2017 and 2020 elections respectively.
 
Summary of poll results for parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and that are routinely included by polling companies. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.625). Left and right-hand axis markers indicate the actual poll results from the 2017 and 2020 elections respectively.

Individual polls edit

For further events related to the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand, see Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 25.6 50.0 2.6 7.9 7.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 24.4
8–15 Oct 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 31.1 45.8 3.5 6.3 7.4 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.3 14.7
10–14 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1005 31 46 2.6 8 8 1.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 15
3–7 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 32 47 2.4 6 8 1.8 0.2 1.3 0.9 15
3 Oct 2020 Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission estimates 60% of voters will cast their vote before election day.[3]
Sep 2020 Roy Morgan Research 911 28.5 47.5 2.5 9.5 7.0 1.5 0.5 – – 19
23–27 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1005 33 47 1.4 7 8 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.6 14
16–23 Sep 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 29.6 50.1 1.9 6.5 6.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 – 20.5
17–21 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 31 48 2.4 6 7 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 17
Aug 2020 Roy Morgan Research 897 28.5 48.0 2.5 11.5 6.0 1.0 0.5 – – 19.5
17 Aug 2020 Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020, over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID-19.[1]
Jul 2020 Roy Morgan Research 899 26.5 53.5 1.5 8 6.5 1.5 0.5 – N/A 27
25–29 Jul 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1004 32 53 2 5 4.8 0.1 1 1.2 N/A 21
16–24 Jul 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 25.1 60.9 2.0 5.7 3.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 N/A 35.8
14 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
Jun 2020 Roy Morgan Research 879 27 54.5 1.5 9 5 1.5 1 – N/A 27.5
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 38 50 1.8 6 3.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 N/A 12
27 Apr – 24 May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 894 26.5 56.5 2.5 7 3.5 1 1.5 – N/A 30
22 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party, replacing Simon Bridges.
16–20 May 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1003 29 59 2.9 4.7 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 N/A 30
8–16 May 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 30.6 56.5 2.7 5.5 1.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 N/A 25.9
14 May 2020 2020 Budget is delivered.
Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 30.5 55 2.5 7 2.5 – – – N/A 24.5
Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 37 42.5 3 11.5 3.5 – – – N/A 5.5
25 March 2020 Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 37 40.5 5 10.5 3.5 – – – N/A 3.5
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1004 46 41 3.3 5 1.7 0.1 1.1 0.8 N/A 5
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 43.3 42.5 3.6 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 N/A 0.8
Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 40 40 2.5 10.5 3 – – – N/A Tie
28 Jan 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 46 39 4.3 7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 N/A 7
7–11 Nov 2019 Stuff–YouGov 1005 38 41 8 8 2 1 1 – N/A 3
5–9 Oct 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 47 40 4.2 7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 N/A 7
2–9 Oct 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 43.9 41.6 4.0 6.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 1 N/A 2.3
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1003 45 43 3.3 6 1 0.5 1.1 0.8 N/A 2
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1002 44 42 5 6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 N/A 2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 37.4 50.8 2.8 6.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 1 N/A 13.4
30 May 2019 The 2019 Budget is delivered.
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1009 40 48 4.3 6 0.7 – 0.5 0.4 N/A 8
15–23 Mar 2019 Business NZ–Reid Research 1000 41.3 49.6 2.3 3.9 – – – – N/A 8.3
15 Mar 2019 Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 42 45 3 6 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 N/A 3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 41.6 47.5 2.9 5.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 N/A 5.9
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 46 43 4 5 0.6 0.3 0.9 – N/A 3
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 43 45 5 7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 N/A 2
2 Aug 2018 Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 45 42 5 6 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 N/A 3
21 Jun 2018 Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1000[4] 45.1 42.6 2.4 5.7 0.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 N/A 2.5
19–23 May 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 45 43 4.2 5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 N/A 2
17 May 2018 The 2018 Budget is delivered.
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 44 43 5 6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.2 N/A 1
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[5]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[6]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 43 48 2.6 5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 N/A 5
13 Feb 2018 Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[7]
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 44.5 42.3 3.8 6 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 N/A 2.2
2–28 Jan 2018 Roy Morgan Research 1000 39 42.5 6 9 0.5 1.5 1 – N/A 3.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research – 40.5 37 8 10 0.5 – – – N/A 3.5
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 46 39 5 7 0.1 1.2 0.9 – N/A 7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 40.5 39.5 5 10 0.5 2 1.5 – N/A 1
26 Oct 2017 Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[8]
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 46 31 6.5 11 0.5 2 1.5 – N/A 15
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[9] N/A 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 N/A 7.6
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead

UMR and Curia polls edit

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT Lead
13 Oct 2020 UMR Research 29 50 2.7 6 7 21
25 Aug – 2 Sep 2020 UMR Research 29 53 3.9 3.2 6.2 24
12 Aug 2020 UMR Research 28 52 5.1 5.4 5.9 24
28 Jul 2020 Curia 36 47 3 6 3 11
30 Jun 2020 Curia 34 55 – – – 21
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research 30 54 5 4 – 24
21–27 April 2020 UMR Research 29 55 6 5 3 26
14 April 2020 Curia 31 49 6 9 5 18
8 April 2020 UMR Research 35 49 5 5 2 14
17 Feb 2020 UMR Research 38 42 6 9 3 4
2 Feb 2020 Curia 39 41 7 7 2 2
23 Jul 2019 UMR Research 38 42 – 9 – 4
9 Nov 2018 UMR Research 37 46 – – – 9
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[9] 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 7.5

Preferred prime minister edit

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

 
Graph of preferred prime minister polling before the 2020 election. Only includes people who polled above 1% at least once. Smoothing is set to span 45%.
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Judith Collins Winston Peters James Shaw Marama Davidson David Seymour Leighton Baker Billy Te Kahika Todd Muller Simon Bridges Bill English Lead
8–15 Oct 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 52.6 18.4 – – – – – – – – – 34.2
10–14 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,005 55 20 1 0.4 0.1 3 0.4 0.4 – 0.4 – 35
3–7 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 50 23 1 0.1 0.5 2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 27
23–27 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,005 54 23 1 0.1 0.2 2 0.1 0.4 – 0.1 0.1 31
16–23 Sep 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 53.2 17.7 – – – – – – – – – 35.5
17–21 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 54 18 2 0.1 – 2 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 0.3 36
25–29 Jul 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 54 20 1 0.1 0.1 1 0.1 0.7 0.2 – – 34
16–24 Jul 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 62 14.6 – – – – – – – – – 47.4
14 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 54 2 2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 – 13 0.4 0.2 41
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research – 65 – – – – – – – 13 – – 52
22 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.
16–20 May 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,003 63 3 1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 – 0.2 5 0.1 58
8–16 May 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 59.5 3.1 – – – – – – – 4.5 – 51
21–27 Apr 2020 UMR Research – 65 7 3 – – – – – – 7 – 58
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 42 3 3 0.1 0.5 0.8 – – – 11 0.2 31
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.7 – – – – – – – – 10.6 – 28.1
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 36 4 3 0.3 – 0.6 – – – 10 – 26
5–9 Oct 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 38 5 4 0.3 0.3 0.4 – – 0.2 9 0.1 29
2–9 Oct 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.4 5.2 – – – – – – – 6.7 – 31.7
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,003 41 6 2 – 0.1 0.4 – – 0.1 6 0.2 35
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,002 45 6 5 0.1 – 0.5 – – – 5 0.1 39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 49 7.1 – – – – – – – 4.2 – 41.9
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 51 5 3 0.2 – 0.2 – – – 5 0.3 46
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 44 6 3 0.2 – 0.1 – – – 6 0.4 38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 41.8 6.2 – – – – – – – 5.0 – 35.6
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 39 6 4 0.1 – 0.1 – – – 7 0.4 32
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 5 4 0.1 0.1 – – – – 7 1 35
2 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 40 2 5 0.3 0.3 0.2 – – – 10 0.9 30
21 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000[10] 40.2 3.7 4.6 – – – – – – 9 4.2 31.2
19–23 May 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 2 4 0.2 – 0.1 – – – 12 0.9 29
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 2 5 – – 0.3 – – – 10 2 27
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[5]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[6]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 0.4 4 0.4 – 0.1 – – – 1 20 21
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000[4] 37.9 0.2 5.7 0.1 – – – – – 0.5 25.7 12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 0.7 5 0.4 – – – – – 0.3 28 9

Government approval rating edit

Government approval rating prior to the 2020 election. No polling was conducted in 2018 or 2019.
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
Sep 2020 Roy Morgan Research 911 70.5 19.5 10 51
Aug 2020 Roy Morgan Research 897 71 19 10 52
Jul 2020 Roy Morgan Research 899 71.5 19 9.5 52.5
Jun 2020 Roy Morgan Research 879 72 18.5 9.5 53.5
May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 76 17.5 6.5 58.5
Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 77 14 9 63
Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 60.5 25.5 14 35
Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 59 27 14 32
Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 66.5 20 12.5 46.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research 68 18 14 50
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 51 26 23 25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 66.5 20 13.5 46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 Horizon Research 1,068 49 24 28 21
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 58.5 27.5 14 31

Electorate polling edit

Auckland Central edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF TOP ACT SNZ TEA IND
Helen White Emma Mellow Nikki Kaye Chlöe Swarbrick Denise Roche Jenny Marcroft Frank Edwards Tuariki Delamere Mika Haka Felix Poole Brooke van Velden Vernon Tava Dominic Hoffman Dervan Joshua Love
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 35 30 N/A 26 N/A 1 N/A — N/A 4 N/A 2 1 0.4
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 42.3 26.6 N/A 24.2 N/A 2.2 N/A 1.0 N/A 0.9 N/A — — —
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 39.82 N/A 45.25 N/A 9.72 N/A 1.98 N/A 2.33 N/A 0.52 N/A N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN ACT NZF TOP SNZ VNZ SCP
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 47 28 13 6 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 56.2 23.1 12.1 3.9 1.6 1.4 — — —
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 37.71 39.15 13.87 1.05 3.87 3.14 N/A N/A 0.01

East Coast edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN
Kiri Allan Tania Tapsell Anne Tolley Meredith
Akuhata-Brown		 Gareth Hughes
22–24 Sep 2020 Community Engagement 40.5 35 N/A 4.9 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 33.51 N/A 46.18 N/A 7.13
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF
22–24 Sep 2020 Community Engagement 50 31 4.4 4.2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 36.62 44.03 4.58 9.89

Northland edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN NCP ACT
Matt King Willow-Jean Prime Shane Jones Winston Peters Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen Peter Hughes Mel Taylor Mark Cameron Craig Nelson
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020 Q+A–Colmar Brunton 46 31 15 N/A 3 N/A 2 1 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 38.30 21.61 N/A 34.81 N/A 4.51 0.46 N/A 0.30
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT ACT NZF GRN TOP
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020 Q+A–Colmar Brunton 41 38 8 7 4.7 0.4
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 30.12 46.35 0.47 13.17 6.05 1.98

Hauraki-Waikato edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI
Nanaia Mahuta Donna Pokere-Phillips Rahui Papa
29–30 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 61 14 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 68.85 N/A 27.36
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI NAT GRN NZF ACT
29–30 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 61 8 5 3 3 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 61.5 11.3 6.87 5.14 8.34 0.09

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN ANZ OUT
Meka Whaitiri Heather
Te Au-Skipworth		 Marama Fox Elizabeth Kerekere Waitangi Kupenga Kelly Thurston
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 46 19 N/A 3 2 0
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 53.68 N/A 35.27 8.41 N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI NZF GRN NAT ACT
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 62 10 3 3 2 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 64.7 13 7.16 4.86 4.8 0.13

Tāmaki Makaurau edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN
Peeni Henare John Tamihere Shane Taurima Marama Davidson
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 35 29 N/A 14
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 47.51 N/A 28.25 21.58
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN NZF NAT ACT
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 57 9 7 5 3 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 59.34 10.96 7.24 9.53 6.55 0.16

Te Tai Hauāuru edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI
Adrian Rurawhe Debbie
Ngarewa-Packer		 Howie Tamati
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 38 20 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 43.86 N/A 39.21
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI NAT GRN NZF ACT TOP
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 51 10 4 4 3 2 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 58.47 14.96 6.54 6.53 7.26 0.08 2.85

Te Tai Tokerau edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI ANZ
Kelvin Davis Mariameno Kapa-Kingi Billy Te Kahika
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 36 18 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 52.60 N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NZF NAT MRI GRN ACT
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 58 6 4 7 7 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 57.94 11.12 7.42 6.48 6.35 0.16

Te Tai Tonga edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN
Rino Tirikatene Tākuta Ferris Mei Reedy-Taare Ariana
Paretutanganui-Tamati 		Metiria Turei
4–5 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 37 11 N/A 2 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 44.44 N/A 20.97 N/A 24.5
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT MRI GRN NZF ACT
4–5 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 53 16 5 5 2 2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 55.8 12.47 8.4 8.12 7.8 0.2

Waiariki edit

Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI VNZ
Tāmati Coffey Rawiri Waititi Te Ururoa Flavell Hannah Tamaki
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 38 26 N/A 2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 53.74 N/A 46.26 N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN NAT NZF ACT
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 47 19 7 3 2 2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 58.95 19.71 3.86 4.75 7.42 0.08

Forecasts edit

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[11] and that Botany will be returned to National,[12][13] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[14]

Source Seats in Parliament[i] Likely
government
formation(s)
NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT MRI Total
Roy Morgan[15]
Sep 2020 poll 		38 61 0 12 9 0 120 Labour (61)
1 News–Colmar Brunton[16]
10–14 Oct 2020 poll 		40 59 0 11 10 0 120 Labour–Green (70)
Newshub–Reid Research[17]
8–15 Oct 2020 poll 		41 61 0 8 10 0 120 Labour (61)
2020 result 33 65 0 10 10 2 120 Labour (65)
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ a b 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References edit

  1. ^ a b Deguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  2. ^ Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
  3. ^ . Radio NZ. Archived from the original on 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2 October 2020 – via 1 News.
  4. ^ a b "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
  5. ^ a b "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
  6. ^ a b "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  7. ^ "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
  8. ^ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
  9. ^ a b "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
  10. ^ . Archived from the original on 9 March 2019.
  11. ^ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  12. ^ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  13. ^ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
  14. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  15. ^ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
  16. ^ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
  17. ^ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.

April 18, 2024
opinion, polling, 2020, zealand, general, election, several, polling, firms, conducted, opinion, polls, during, term, 52nd, zealand, parliament, lead, 2020, general, election, which, elects, 53rd, parliament, 52nd, parliament, elected, september, 2017, dissolv. Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election which elects the 53rd Parliament The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020 The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020 but due to a second COVID 19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020 1 Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles 2 The two regular polls are Television New Zealand 1 News conducted by Colmar Brunton and MediaWorks New Zealand Newshub Reid Research with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research The sample size margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date Contents 1 Party vote 1 1 Graphical summary 1 2 Individual polls 1 3 UMR and Curia polls 2 Preferred prime minister 3 Government approval rating 4 Electorate polling 4 1 Auckland Central 4 2 East Coast 4 3 Northland 4 4 Hauraki Waikato 4 5 Ikaroa Rawhiti 4 6 Tamaki Makaurau 4 7 Te Tai Hauauru 4 8 Te Tai Tokerau 4 9 Te Tai Tonga 4 10 Waiariki 5 Forecasts 6 See also 7 Notes 8 ReferencesParty vote editGraphical summary edit The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies The second graph shows parties that received less than 10 of the party vote in the 2017 election and are routinely included by polling companies nbsp Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017 Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother smoothing set to span 0 625 Left and right hand axis markers indicate the actual poll results from the 2017 and 2020 elections respectively nbsp Summary of poll results for parties that received less than 10 of the party vote in the 2017 election and that are routinely included by polling companies Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother smoothing set to span 0 625 Left and right hand axis markers indicate the actual poll results from the 2017 and 2020 elections respectively Individual polls edit For further events related to the COVID 19 pandemic in New Zealand see Timeline of the COVID 19 pandemic in New Zealand Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold and the background shaded in the leading party s colour The party lead column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures In the instance of a tie both figures are shaded and displayed in bold Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages while question wording and the treatment of don t know responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations The parties shown in the table are National NAT Labour LAB New Zealand First NZF Green GRN ACT Opportunities TOP Maori MRI New Conservative NCP and Advance New Zealand ANZ Other parties have also registered in some polls but are not listed in this table Date nb 1 Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N A 25 6 50 0 2 6 7 9 7 6 1 5 1 2 1 5 1 0 24 48 15 Oct 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1000 31 1 45 8 3 5 6 3 7 4 1 3 0 6 1 7 0 3 14 710 14 Oct 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1005 31 46 2 6 8 8 1 1 0 6 1 5 0 9 153 7 Oct 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 32 47 2 4 6 8 1 8 0 2 1 3 0 9 153 Oct 2020 Advance voting for the election begins The Electoral Commission estimates 60 of voters will cast their vote before election day 3 Sep 2020 Roy Morgan Research 911 28 5 47 5 2 5 9 5 7 0 1 5 0 5 1923 27 Sep 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1005 33 47 1 4 7 8 1 0 0 8 1 4 0 6 1416 23 Sep 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1000 29 6 50 1 1 9 6 5 6 3 0 9 1 5 2 1 20 517 21 Sep 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1008 31 48 2 4 6 7 1 1 0 9 1 6 0 8 17Aug 2020 Roy Morgan Research 897 28 5 48 0 2 5 11 5 6 0 1 0 0 5 19 517 Aug 2020 Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020 over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID 19 1 Jul 2020 Roy Morgan Research 899 26 5 53 5 1 5 8 6 5 1 5 0 5 N A 2725 29 Jul 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1004 32 53 2 5 4 8 0 1 1 1 2 N A 2116 24 Jul 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1000 25 1 60 9 2 0 5 7 3 3 0 4 0 4 0 9 N A 35 814 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party Jun 2020 Roy Morgan Research 879 27 54 5 1 5 9 5 1 5 1 N A 27 520 24 Jun 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 38 50 1 8 6 3 1 0 5 0 9 0 7 N A 1227 Apr 24 May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 894 26 5 56 5 2 5 7 3 5 1 1 5 N A 3022 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party replacing Simon Bridges 16 20 May 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1003 29 59 2 9 4 7 2 2 0 5 1 2 0 4 N A 308 16 May 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1000 30 6 56 5 2 7 5 5 1 8 0 1 0 9 1 0 N A 25 914 May 2020 2020 Budget is delivered Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research 30 5 55 2 5 7 2 5 N A 24 5Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research 37 42 5 3 11 5 3 5 N A 5 525 March 2020 Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID 19 pandemic Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research 37 40 5 5 10 5 3 5 N A 3 58 12 Feb 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1004 46 41 3 3 5 1 7 0 1 1 1 0 8 N A 523 Jan 1 Feb 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1000 43 3 42 5 3 6 5 6 1 8 0 6 0 9 0 7 N A 0 8Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research 40 40 2 5 10 5 3 N A Tie28 Jan 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020 23 27 Nov 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1006 46 39 4 3 7 1 6 0 9 0 5 0 8 N A 77 11 Nov 2019 Stuff YouGov 1005 38 41 8 8 2 1 1 N A 35 9 Oct 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1008 47 40 4 2 7 0 9 0 5 0 8 0 4 N A 72 9 Oct 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1000 43 9 41 6 4 0 6 3 1 4 1 1 0 7 1 N A 2 320 24 Jul 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1003 45 43 3 3 6 1 0 5 1 1 0 8 N A 24 8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1002 44 42 5 6 0 7 0 5 0 5 0 6 N A 230 May 7 Jun 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1000 37 4 50 8 2 8 6 2 0 8 0 1 0 5 1 N A 13 430 May 2019 The 2019 Budget is delivered 6 10 Apr 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1009 40 48 4 3 6 0 7 0 5 0 4 N A 815 23 Mar 2019 Business NZ Reid Research 1000 41 3 49 6 2 3 3 9 N A 8 315 Mar 2019 Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49 Terror threat level is raised from low to high 9 13 Feb 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1006 42 45 3 6 0 9 0 6 1 4 0 2 N A 324 Jan 2 Feb 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1000 41 6 47 5 2 9 5 1 0 4 0 5 0 8 1 1 N A 5 924 28 Nov 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1008 46 43 4 5 0 6 0 3 0 9 N A 315 19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1006 43 45 5 7 0 3 0 3 0 6 0 3 N A 22 Aug 2018 Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave 28 Jul 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 45 42 5 6 1 1 0 4 0 9 0 1 N A 321 Jun 2018 Ardern gives birth Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister 17 24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1000 4 45 1 42 6 2 4 5 7 0 2 1 6 0 9 1 1 N A 2 519 23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 45 43 4 2 5 0 7 0 5 0 9 0 2 N A 217 May 2018 The 2018 Budget is delivered 7 11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 44 43 5 6 0 3 0 4 1 2 0 2 N A 18 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co leader of the Green Party 5 27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party 6 10 14 Feb 2018 nb 2 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 43 48 2 6 5 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 1 N A 513 Feb 2018 Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament 7 18 28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1000 44 5 42 3 3 8 6 0 2 1 4 0 8 0 3 N A 2 22 28 Jan 2018 Roy Morgan Research 1000 39 42 5 6 9 0 5 1 5 1 N A 3 527 Nov 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research 40 5 37 8 10 0 5 N A 3 529 Nov 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1007 46 39 5 7 0 1 1 2 0 9 N A 730 Oct 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 40 5 39 5 5 10 0 5 2 1 5 N A 126 Oct 2017 Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand 8 2 15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 46 31 6 5 11 0 5 2 1 5 N A 1523 Sep 2017 2017 election result 9 N A 44 4 36 9 7 2 6 3 0 5 2 4 1 2 0 2 N A 7 6Date nb 1 Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead UMR and Curia polls edit These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour UMR and National Curia Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising Because not all of their polls are made public it is likely that those that are released are cherry picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends Date nb 1 Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT Lead13 Oct 2020 UMR Research 29 50 2 7 6 7 2125 Aug 2 Sep 2020 UMR Research 29 53 3 9 3 2 6 2 2412 Aug 2020 UMR Research 28 52 5 1 5 4 5 9 2428 Jul 2020 Curia 36 47 3 6 3 1130 Jun 2020 Curia 34 55 2126 May 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research 30 54 5 4 2421 27 April 2020 UMR Research 29 55 6 5 3 2614 April 2020 Curia 31 49 6 9 5 188 April 2020 UMR Research 35 49 5 5 2 1417 Feb 2020 UMR Research 38 42 6 9 3 42 Feb 2020 Curia 39 41 7 7 2 223 Jul 2019 UMR Research 38 42 9 49 Nov 2018 UMR Research 37 46 923 Sep 2017 2017 election result 9 44 4 36 9 7 2 6 3 0 5 7 5Preferred prime minister editSome opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals as well as don t know answers differ from poll to poll nbsp Graph of preferred prime minister polling before the 2020 election Only includes people who polled above 1 at least once Smoothing is set to span 45 Date nb 1 Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Judith Collins Winston Peters James Shaw Marama Davidson David Seymour Leighton Baker Billy Te Kahika Todd Muller Simon Bridges Bill English Lead8 15 Oct 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 52 6 18 4 34 210 14 Oct 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 005 55 20 1 0 4 0 1 3 0 4 0 4 0 4 353 7 Oct 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 50 23 1 0 1 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 2723 27 Sep 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 005 54 23 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 1 3116 23 Sep 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 53 2 17 7 35 517 21 Sep 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 008 54 18 2 0 1 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 3 3625 29 Jul 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 004 54 20 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 7 0 2 3416 24 Jul 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 62 14 6 47 414 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party 20 24 Jun 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 54 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 8 0 1 13 0 4 0 2 4126 May 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research 65 13 5222 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party 16 20 May 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 003 63 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 5 0 1 588 16 May 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 59 5 3 1 4 5 5121 27 Apr 2020 UMR Research 65 7 3 7 588 12 Feb 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 004 42 3 3 0 1 0 5 0 8 11 0 2 3123 Jan 1 Feb 2020 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 38 7 10 6 28 123 27 Nov 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 006 36 4 3 0 3 0 6 10 265 9 Oct 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 008 38 5 4 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 2 9 0 1 292 9 Oct 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 38 4 5 2 6 7 31 720 24 Jul 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 003 41 6 2 0 1 0 4 0 1 6 0 2 354 8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 002 45 6 5 0 1 0 5 5 0 1 3930 May 7 Jun 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 49 7 1 4 2 41 96 10 Apr 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 006 51 5 3 0 2 0 2 5 0 3 469 13 Feb 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 006 44 6 3 0 2 0 1 6 0 4 3824 Jan 2 Feb 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 41 8 6 2 5 0 35 624 28 Nov 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 008 39 6 4 0 1 0 1 7 0 4 3215 19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 006 42 5 4 0 1 0 1 7 1 352 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave 28 Jul 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 40 2 5 0 3 0 3 0 2 10 0 9 3021 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister 17 24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 10 40 2 3 7 4 6 9 4 2 31 219 23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 41 2 4 0 2 0 1 12 0 9 297 11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 37 2 5 0 3 10 2 278 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co leader of the Green Party 5 27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party 6 10 14 Feb 2018 nb 2 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 41 0 4 4 0 4 0 1 1 20 2118 28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1 000 4 37 9 0 2 5 7 0 1 0 5 25 7 12 229 Nov 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 37 0 7 5 0 4 0 3 28 9Government approval rating editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki org Government approval rating prior to the 2020 election No polling was conducted in 2018 or 2019 Date nb 1 Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know LeadSep 2020 Roy Morgan Research 911 70 5 19 5 10 51Aug 2020 Roy Morgan Research 897 71 19 10 52Jul 2020 Roy Morgan Research 899 71 5 19 9 5 52 5Jun 2020 Roy Morgan Research 879 72 18 5 9 5 53 5May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 76 17 5 6 5 58 5Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 77 14 9 63Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 60 5 25 5 14 35Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 59 27 14 32Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 66 5 20 12 5 46 527 Nov 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research 68 18 14 5029 Nov 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1 007 51 26 23 2530 Oct 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 66 5 20 13 5 46 524 Oct 1 Nov 2017 Horizon Research 1 068 49 24 28 212 15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 58 5 27 5 14 31Electorate polling editAuckland Central edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF TOP ACT SNZ TEA INDHelen White Emma Mellow Nikki Kaye Chloe Swarbrick Denise Roche Jenny Marcroft Frank Edwards Tuariki Delamere Mika Haka Felix Poole Brooke van Velden Vernon Tava Dominic Hoffman Dervan Joshua Love24 30 Sep 2020 Q A Colmar Brunton 35 30 N A 26 N A 1 N A N A 4 N A 2 1 0 4September 2020 Newshub Nation Reid Research 42 3 26 6 N A 24 2 N A 2 2 N A 1 0 N A 0 9 N A 23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 39 82 N A 45 25 N A 9 72 N A 1 98 N A 2 33 N A 0 52 N A N A N AParty vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN ACT NZF TOP SNZ VNZ SCP24 30 Sep 2020 Q A Colmar Brunton 47 28 13 6 1 7 2 2 0 6 0 4 0 3September 2020 Newshub Nation Reid Research 56 2 23 1 12 1 3 9 1 6 1 4 23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 37 71 39 15 13 87 1 05 3 87 3 14 N A N A 0 01East Coast edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NAT GRNKiri Allan Tania Tapsell Anne Tolley MeredithAkuhata Brown Gareth Hughes22 24 Sep 2020 Community Engagement 40 5 35 N A 4 9 N A23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 33 51 N A 46 18 N A 7 13Party vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF22 24 Sep 2020 Community Engagement 50 31 4 4 4 223 Sep 2017 2017 election result 36 62 44 03 4 58 9 89Northland edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN NCP ACTMatt King Willow Jean Prime Shane Jones Winston Peters Darleen Tana Hoff Nielsen Peter Hughes Mel Taylor Mark Cameron Craig Nelson29 Jul 4 Aug 2020 Q A Colmar Brunton 46 31 15 N A 3 N A 2 1 N A23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 38 30 21 61 N A 34 81 N A 4 51 0 46 N A 0 30Party vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NAT ACT NZF GRN TOP29 Jul 4 Aug 2020 Q A Colmar Brunton 41 38 8 7 4 7 0 423 Sep 2017 2017 election result 30 12 46 35 0 47 13 17 6 05 1 98Hauraki Waikato edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRINanaia Mahuta Donna Pokere Phillips Rahui Papa29 30 Sep 2020 Maori TV Curia 61 14 N A23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 68 85 N A 27 36Party vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI NAT GRN NZF ACT29 30 Sep 2020 Maori TV Curia 61 8 5 3 3 123 Sep 2017 2017 election result 61 5 11 3 6 87 5 14 8 34 0 09Ikaroa Rawhiti edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN ANZ OUTMeka Whaitiri HeatherTe Au Skipworth Marama Fox Elizabeth Kerekere Waitangi Kupenga Kelly Thurston23 25 Sep 2020 Maori TV Curia 46 19 N A 3 2 023 Sep 2017 2017 election result 53 68 N A 35 27 8 41 N A N AParty vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI NZF GRN NAT ACT23 25 Sep 2020 Maori TV Curia 62 10 3 3 2 123 Sep 2017 2017 election result 64 7 13 7 16 4 86 4 8 0 13Tamaki Makaurau edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI GRNPeeni Henare John Tamihere Shane Taurima Marama Davidson6 7 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 35 29 N A 1423 Sep 2017 2017 election result 47 51 N A 28 25 21 58Party vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN NZF NAT ACT6 7 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 57 9 7 5 3 123 Sep 2017 2017 election result 59 34 10 96 7 24 9 53 6 55 0 16Te Tai Hauauru edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRIAdrian Rurawhe DebbieNgarewa Packer Howie Tamati23 25 Sep 2020 Maori TV Curia 38 20 N A23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 43 86 N A 39 21Party vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI NAT GRN NZF ACT TOP23 25 Sep 2020 Maori TV Curia 51 10 4 4 3 2 123 Sep 2017 2017 election result 58 47 14 96 6 54 6 53 7 26 0 08 2 85Te Tai Tokerau edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI ANZKelvin Davis Mariameno Kapa Kingi Billy Te Kahika6 7 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 36 18 123 Sep 2017 2017 election result 52 60 N A N AParty vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NZF NAT MRI GRN ACT6 7 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 58 6 4 7 7 123 Sep 2017 2017 election result 57 94 11 12 7 42 6 48 6 35 0 16Te Tai Tonga edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI GRNRino Tirikatene Takuta Ferris Mei Reedy Taare ArianaParetutanganui Tamati Metiria Turei4 5 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 37 11 N A 2 N A23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 44 44 N A 20 97 N A 24 5Party vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB NAT MRI GRN NZF ACT4 5 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 53 16 5 5 2 223 Sep 2017 2017 election result 55 8 12 47 8 4 8 12 7 8 0 2Waiariki edit Electorate vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI VNZTamati Coffey Rawiri Waititi Te Ururoa Flavell Hannah Tamaki30 Sep 1 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 38 26 N A 223 Sep 2017 2017 election result 53 74 N A 46 26 N AParty vote Date nb 1 Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN NAT NZF ACT30 Sep 1 Oct 2020 Maori TV Curia 47 19 7 3 2 223 Sep 2017 2017 election result 58 95 19 71 3 86 4 75 7 42 0 08Forecasts editThe use of mixed member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party s support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National 11 and that Botany will be returned to National 12 13 but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5 are assumed to win zero seats When determining the scenarios for the overall result the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed provided parties have indicated openness to working together Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority this happened after the 2014 election when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61 seat majority but instead chose to form a 64 seat government with Maori ACT and United Future 14 Source Seats in Parliament i Likelygovernmentformation s NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT MRI TotalRoy Morgan 15 Sep 2020 poll 38 61 0 12 9 0 120 Labour 61 1 News Colmar Brunton 16 10 14 Oct 2020 poll 40 59 0 11 10 0 120 Labour Green 70 Newshub Reid Research 17 8 15 Oct 2020 poll 41 61 0 8 10 0 120 Labour 61 2020 result 33 65 0 10 10 2 120 Labour 65 Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission s MMP seat allocation calculator based on polling results See also editOpinion polling for the next New Zealand general election 2017 New Zealand general election Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election Politics of New ZealandNotes edit a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y These are the survey dates of the poll or if the survey dates are not stated the date the poll was released a b 75 of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation References edit a b Deguara Brittney 17 August 2020 Live Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak Stuff Retrieved 17 August 2020 Michael Appleton 5 November 2018 Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters The Spinoff Archived from the original on 5 November 2018 Retrieved 5 November 2018 Hundreds of sites to open for advance voting from today Radio NZ Archived from the original on 2 October 2020 Retrieved 2 October 2020 via 1 News a b TV3 poll results Reid Research Archived from the original on 28 May 2018 Retrieved 27 May 2018 a b Marama Davidson elected new Greens co leader Newshub 8 April 2018 Archived from the original on 8 April 2018 Retrieved 8 April 2018 a b Simon Bridges is National Party s new leader Paula Bennett remains deputy The New Zealand Herald 27 February 2018 Archived from the original on 27 February 2018 Retrieved 27 February 2018 Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader Newshub 13 February 2018 Archived from the original on 13 February 2018 Retrieved 13 February 2018 Hurley Emma 26 October 2017 As it happened Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister Newshub Archived from the original on 27 October 2017 Retrieved 27 October 2017 a b Official Count Results Overall Status Wellington Electoral Commission 10 October 2017 Archived from the original on 7 October 2017 Retrieved 24 October 2017 TV3 Poll Results Reid Research Independent Field Market Research Archived from the original on 9 March 2019 Keogh Brittany 6 August 2020 Election 2020 Doctor businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat Stuff Retrieved 10 September 2020 National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany The New Zealand Herald 5 November 2019 Retrieved 10 September 2020 Ensor Jamie 15 September 2020 NZ Election 2020 Jami Lee Ross won t contest Botany electorate Newshub Retrieved 15 September 2020 Schwartz Dominique 20 September 2014 John Key s National Party takes out New Zealand election ABC News Retrieved 10 September 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a crushing election victory on Saturday Roy Morgan 14 October 2020 Whyte Anna 15 October 2020 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll Labour maintains strong lead over National Greens climb 1 News TVNZ Retrieved 15 October 2020 O Brien Tova 16 October 2020 NZ Election 2020 Newshub Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain Newshub Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election amp oldid 1130042226, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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