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Independence (probability theory)

Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent[1] if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds. Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other.

When dealing with collections of more than two events, two notions of independence need to be distinguished. The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other, while mutual independence (or collective independence) of events means, informally speaking, that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection. A similar notion exists for collections of random variables. Mutual independence implies pairwise independence, but not the other way around. In the standard literature of probability theory, statistics, and stochastic processes, independence without further qualification usually refers to mutual independence.

Definition Edit

For events Edit

Two events Edit

Two events   and   are independent (often written as   or  , where the latter symbol often is also used for conditional independence) if and only if their joint probability equals the product of their probabilities:[2]: p. 29 [3]: p. 10 

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.1)

  indicates that two independent events   and   have common elements in their sample space so that they are not mutually exclusive (mutually exclusive iff  ). Why this defines independence is made clear by rewriting with conditional probabilities   as the probability at which the event   occurs provided that the event   has or is assumed to have occurred:

 

and similarly

 

Thus, the occurrence of   does not affect the probability of  , and vice versa. In other words,   and   are independent to each other. Although the derived expressions may seem more intuitive, they are not the preferred definition, as the conditional probabilities may be undefined if   or   are 0. Furthermore, the preferred definition makes clear by symmetry that when   is independent of  ,   is also independent of  .

Odds Edit

Stated in terms of odds, two events are independent if and only if the odds ratio of   and   is unity (1). Analogously with probability, this is equivalent to the conditional odds being equal to the unconditional odds:

 

or to the odds of one event, given the other event, being the same as the odds of the event, given the other event not occurring:

 

The odds ratio can be defined as

 

or symmetrically for odds of   given  , and thus is 1 if and only if the events are independent.

More than two events Edit

A finite set of events   is pairwise independent if every pair of events is independent[4]—that is, if and only if for all distinct pairs of indices  ,

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.2)

A finite set of events is mutually independent if every event is independent of any intersection of the other events[4][3]: p. 11 —that is, if and only if for every   and for every k indices  ,

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.3)

This is called the multiplication rule for independent events. It is not a single condition involving only the product of all the probabilities of all single events; it must hold true for all subsets of events.

For more than two events, a mutually independent set of events is (by definition) pairwise independent; but the converse is not necessarily true.[2]: p. 30 

Log probability and information content Edit

Stated in terms of log probability, two events are independent if and only if the log probability of the joint event is the sum of the log probability of the individual events:

 

In information theory, negative log probability is interpreted as information content, and thus two events are independent if and only if the information content of the combined event equals the sum of information content of the individual events:

 

See Information content § Additivity of independent events for details.

For real valued random variables Edit

Two random variables Edit

Two random variables   and   are independent if and only if (iff) the elements of the π-system generated by them are independent; that is to say, for every   and  , the events   and   are independent events (as defined above in Eq.1). That is,   and   with cumulative distribution functions   and  , are independent iff the combined random variable   has a joint cumulative distribution function[3]: p. 15 

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.4)

or equivalently, if the probability densities   and   and the joint probability density   exist,

 

More than two random variables Edit

A finite set of   random variables   is pairwise independent if and only if every pair of random variables is independent. Even if the set of random variables is pairwise independent, it is not necessarily mutually independent as defined next.

A finite set of   random variables   is mutually independent if and only if for any sequence of numbers  , the events   are mutually independent events (as defined above in Eq.3). This is equivalent to the following condition on the joint cumulative distribution function  . A finite set of   random variables   is mutually independent if and only if[3]: p. 16 

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.5)

Notice that it is not necessary here to require that the probability distribution factorizes for all possible  -element subsets as in the case for   events. This is not required because e.g.   implies  .

The measure-theoretically inclined may prefer to substitute events   for events   in the above definition, where   is any Borel set. That definition is exactly equivalent to the one above when the values of the random variables are real numbers. It has the advantage of working also for complex-valued random variables or for random variables taking values in any measurable space (which includes topological spaces endowed by appropriate σ-algebras).

For real valued random vectors Edit

Two random vectors   and   are called independent if[5]: p. 187 

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.6)

where   and   denote the cumulative distribution functions of   and   and   denotes their joint cumulative distribution function. Independence of   and   is often denoted by  . Written component-wise,   and   are called independent if

 

For stochastic processes Edit

For one stochastic process Edit

The definition of independence may be extended from random vectors to a stochastic process. Therefore, it is required for an independent stochastic process that the random variables obtained by sampling the process at any   times   are independent random variables for any  .[6]: p. 163 

Formally, a stochastic process   is called independent, if and only if for all   and for all  

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.7)

where  . Independence of a stochastic process is a property within a stochastic process, not between two stochastic processes.

For two stochastic processes Edit

Independence of two stochastic processes is a property between two stochastic processes   and   that are defined on the same probability space  . Formally, two stochastic processes   and   are said to be independent if for all   and for all  , the random vectors   and   are independent,[7]: p. 515  i.e. if

 

 

 

 

 

(Eq.8)

Independent σ-algebras Edit

The definitions above (Eq.1 and Eq.2) are both generalized by the following definition of independence for σ-algebras. Let   be a probability space and let   and   be two sub-σ-algebras of  .   and   are said to be independent if, whenever   and  ,

 

Likewise, a finite family of σ-algebras  , where   is an index set, is said to be independent if and only if

 

and an infinite family of σ-algebras is said to be independent if all its finite subfamilies are independent.

The new definition relates to the previous ones very directly:

  • Two events are independent (in the old sense) if and only if the σ-algebras that they generate are independent (in the new sense). The σ-algebra generated by an event   is, by definition,
 
  • Two random variables   and   defined over   are independent (in the old sense) if and only if the σ-algebras that they generate are independent (in the new sense). The σ-algebra generated by a random variable   taking values in some measurable space   consists, by definition, of all subsets of   of the form  , where   is any measurable subset of  .

Using this definition, it is easy to show that if   and   are random variables and   is constant, then   and   are independent, since the σ-algebra generated by a constant random variable is the trivial σ-algebra  . Probability zero events cannot affect independence so independence also holds if   is only Pr-almost surely constant.

Properties Edit

Self-independence Edit

Note that an event is independent of itself if and only if

 

Thus an event is independent of itself if and only if it almost surely occurs or its complement almost surely occurs; this fact is useful when proving zero–one laws.[8]

Expectation and covariance Edit

If   and   are statistically independent random variables, then the expectation operator   has the property

 [9]: p. 10 

and the covariance   is zero, as follows from

 

The converse does not hold: if two random variables have a covariance of 0 they still may be not independent.

Similarly for two stochastic processes   and  : If they are independent, then they are uncorrelated.[10]: p. 151 

Characteristic function Edit

Two random variables   and   are independent if and only if the characteristic function of the random vector   satisfies

 

In particular the characteristic function of their sum is the product of their marginal characteristic functions:

 

though the reverse implication is not true. Random variables that satisfy the latter condition are called subindependent.

Examples Edit

Rolling dice Edit

The event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event of getting a 6 the second time are independent. By contrast, the event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event that the sum of the numbers seen on the first and second trial is 8 are not independent.

Drawing cards Edit

If two cards are drawn with replacement from a deck of cards, the event of drawing a red card on the first trial and that of drawing a red card on the second trial are independent. By contrast, if two cards are drawn without replacement from a deck of cards, the event of drawing a red card on the first trial and that of drawing a red card on the second trial are not independent, because a deck that has had a red card removed has proportionately fewer red cards.

Pairwise and mutual independence Edit

 
Pairwise independent, but not mutually independent, events
 
Mutually independent events

Consider the two probability spaces shown. In both cases,   and  . The random variables in the first space are pairwise independent because  ,  , and  ; but the three random variables are not mutually independent. The random variables in the second space are both pairwise independent and mutually independent. To illustrate the difference, consider conditioning on two events. In the pairwise independent case, although any one event is independent of each of the other two individually, it is not independent of the intersection of the other two:

 
 
 

In the mutually independent case, however,

 
 
 

Triple-independence but no pairwise-independence Edit

It is possible to create a three-event example in which

 

and yet no two of the three events are pairwise independent (and hence the set of events are not mutually independent).[11] This example shows that mutual independence involves requirements on the products of probabilities of all combinations of events, not just the single events as in this example.

Conditional independence Edit

For events Edit

The events   and   are conditionally independent given an event   when

 .

For random variables Edit

Intuitively, two random variables   and   are conditionally independent given   if, once   is known, the value of   does not add any additional information about  . For instance, two measurements   and   of the same underlying quantity   are not independent, but they are conditionally independent given   (unless the errors in the two measurements are somehow connected).

The formal definition of conditional independence is based on the idea of conditional distributions. If  ,  , and   are discrete random variables, then we define   and   to be conditionally independent given   if

 

for all  ,   and   such that  . On the other hand, if the random variables are continuous and have a joint probability density function  , then   and   are conditionally independent given   if

 

for all real numbers  ,   and   such that  .

If discrete   and   are conditionally independent given  , then

 

for any  ,   and   with  . That is, the conditional distribution for   given   and   is the same as that given   alone. A similar equation holds for the conditional probability density functions in the continuous case.

Independence can be seen as a special kind of conditional independence, since probability can be seen as a kind of conditional probability given no events.

See also Edit

References Edit

  1. ^ Russell, Stuart; Norvig, Peter (2002). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall. p. 478. ISBN 0-13-790395-2.
  2. ^ a b Florescu, Ionut (2014). Probability and Stochastic Processes. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-470-62455-5.
  3. ^ a b c d Gallager, Robert G. (2013). Stochastic Processes Theory for Applications. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-03975-9.
  4. ^ a b Feller, W (1971). "Stochastic Independence". An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. Wiley.
  5. ^ Papoulis, Athanasios (1991). Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes. MCGraw Hill. ISBN 0-07-048477-5.
  6. ^ Hwei, Piao (1997). Theory and Problems of Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-030644-3.
  7. ^ Amos Lapidoth (8 February 2017). A Foundation in Digital Communication. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-17732-1.
  8. ^ Durrett, Richard (1996). Probability: theory and examples (Second ed.). page 62
  9. ^ E Jakeman. MODELING FLUCTUATIONS IN SCATTERED WAVES. ISBN 978-0-7503-1005-5.
  10. ^ Park, Kun Il (2018). Fundamentals of Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications to Communications. Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-68074-3.
  11. ^ George, Glyn, "Testing for the independence of three events," Mathematical Gazette 88, November 2004, 568. PDF

External links Edit

  •   Media related to Independence (probability theory) at Wikimedia Commons

independence, probability, theory, independence, fundamental, notion, probability, theory, statistics, theory, stochastic, processes, events, independent, statistically, independent, stochastically, independent, informally, speaking, occurrence, does, affect, . Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes Two events are independent statistically independent or stochastically independent 1 if informally speaking the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or equivalently does not affect the odds Similarly two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other When dealing with collections of more than two events two notions of independence need to be distinguished The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other while mutual independence or collective independence of events means informally speaking that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection A similar notion exists for collections of random variables Mutual independence implies pairwise independence but not the other way around In the standard literature of probability theory statistics and stochastic processes independence without further qualification usually refers to mutual independence Contents 1 Definition 1 1 For events 1 1 1 Two events 1 1 2 Odds 1 1 3 More than two events 1 1 4 Log probability and information content 1 2 For real valued random variables 1 2 1 Two random variables 1 2 2 More than two random variables 1 3 For real valued random vectors 1 4 For stochastic processes 1 4 1 For one stochastic process 1 4 2 For two stochastic processes 1 5 Independent s algebras 2 Properties 2 1 Self independence 2 2 Expectation and covariance 2 3 Characteristic function 3 Examples 3 1 Rolling dice 3 2 Drawing cards 3 3 Pairwise and mutual independence 3 4 Triple independence but no pairwise independence 4 Conditional independence 4 1 For events 4 2 For random variables 5 See also 6 References 7 External linksDefinition EditFor events Edit Two events Edit Two events A displaystyle A nbsp and B displaystyle B nbsp are independent often written as A B displaystyle A perp B nbsp or A B displaystyle A perp perp B nbsp where the latter symbol often is also used for conditional independence if and only if their joint probability equals the product of their probabilities 2 p 29 3 p 10 P A B P A P B displaystyle mathrm P A cap B mathrm P A mathrm P B nbsp Eq 1 A B displaystyle A cap B neq emptyset nbsp indicates that two independent events A displaystyle A nbsp and B displaystyle B nbsp have common elements in their sample space so that they are not mutually exclusive mutually exclusive iff A B displaystyle A cap B emptyset nbsp Why this defines independence is made clear by rewriting with conditional probabilities P A B P A B P B displaystyle P A mid B frac P A cap B P B nbsp as the probability at which the event A displaystyle A nbsp occurs provided that the event B displaystyle B nbsp has or is assumed to have occurred P A B P A P B P A B P A B P B P A displaystyle mathrm P A cap B mathrm P A mathrm P B iff mathrm P A mid B frac mathrm P A cap B mathrm P B mathrm P A nbsp and similarly P A B P A P B P B A P A B P A P B displaystyle mathrm P A cap B mathrm P A mathrm P B iff mathrm P B mid A frac mathrm P A cap B mathrm P A mathrm P B nbsp Thus the occurrence of B displaystyle B nbsp does not affect the probability of A displaystyle A nbsp and vice versa In other words A displaystyle A nbsp and B displaystyle B nbsp are independent to each other Although the derived expressions may seem more intuitive they are not the preferred definition as the conditional probabilities may be undefined if P A displaystyle mathrm P A nbsp or P B displaystyle mathrm P B nbsp are 0 Furthermore the preferred definition makes clear by symmetry that when A displaystyle A nbsp is independent of B displaystyle B nbsp B displaystyle B nbsp is also independent of A displaystyle A nbsp Odds Edit Stated in terms of odds two events are independent if and only if the odds ratio of A displaystyle A nbsp and B displaystyle B nbsp is unity 1 Analogously with probability this is equivalent to the conditional odds being equal to the unconditional odds O A B O A and O B A O B displaystyle O A mid B O A text and O B mid A O B nbsp or to the odds of one event given the other event being the same as the odds of the event given the other event not occurring O A B O A B and O B A O B A displaystyle O A mid B O A mid neg B text and O B mid A O B mid neg A nbsp The odds ratio can be defined as O A B O A B displaystyle O A mid B O A mid neg B nbsp or symmetrically for odds of B displaystyle B nbsp given A displaystyle A nbsp and thus is 1 if and only if the events are independent More than two events Edit A finite set of events A i i 1 n displaystyle A i i 1 n nbsp is pairwise independent if every pair of events is independent 4 that is if and only if for all distinct pairs of indices m k displaystyle m k nbsp P A m A k P A m P A k displaystyle mathrm P A m cap A k mathrm P A m mathrm P A k nbsp Eq 2 A finite set of events is mutually independent if every event is independent of any intersection of the other events 4 3 p 11 that is if and only if for every k n displaystyle k leq n nbsp and for every k indices 1 i 1 lt lt i k n displaystyle 1 leq i 1 lt dots lt i k leq n nbsp P j 1 k A i j j 1 k P A i j displaystyle mathrm P left bigcap j 1 k A i j right prod j 1 k mathrm P A i j nbsp Eq 3 This is called the multiplication rule for independent events It is not a single condition involving only the product of all the probabilities of all single events it must hold true for all subsets of events For more than two events a mutually independent set of events is by definition pairwise independent but the converse is not necessarily true 2 p 30 Log probability and information content Edit Stated in terms of log probability two events are independent if and only if the log probability of the joint event is the sum of the log probability of the individual events log P A B log P A log P B displaystyle log mathrm P A cap B log mathrm P A log mathrm P B nbsp In information theory negative log probability is interpreted as information content and thus two events are independent if and only if the information content of the combined event equals the sum of information content of the individual events I A B I A I B displaystyle mathrm I A cap B mathrm I A mathrm I B nbsp See Information content Additivity of independent events for details For real valued random variables Edit Two random variables Edit Two random variables X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are independent if and only if iff the elements of the p system generated by them are independent that is to say for every x displaystyle x nbsp and y displaystyle y nbsp the events X x displaystyle X leq x nbsp and Y y displaystyle Y leq y nbsp are independent events as defined above in Eq 1 That is X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp with cumulative distribution functions F X x displaystyle F X x nbsp and F Y y displaystyle F Y y nbsp are independent iff the combined random variable X Y displaystyle X Y nbsp has a joint cumulative distribution function 3 p 15 F X Y x y F X x F Y y for all x y displaystyle F X Y x y F X x F Y y quad text for all x y nbsp Eq 4 or equivalently if the probability densities f X x displaystyle f X x nbsp and f Y y displaystyle f Y y nbsp and the joint probability density f X Y x y displaystyle f X Y x y nbsp exist f X Y x y f X x f Y y for all x y displaystyle f X Y x y f X x f Y y quad text for all x y nbsp More than two random variables Edit A finite set of n displaystyle n nbsp random variables X 1 X n displaystyle X 1 ldots X n nbsp is pairwise independent if and only if every pair of random variables is independent Even if the set of random variables is pairwise independent it is not necessarily mutually independent as defined next A finite set of n displaystyle n nbsp random variables X 1 X n displaystyle X 1 ldots X n nbsp is mutually independent if and only if for any sequence of numbers x 1 x n displaystyle x 1 ldots x n nbsp the events X 1 x 1 X n x n displaystyle X 1 leq x 1 ldots X n leq x n nbsp are mutually independent events as defined above in Eq 3 This is equivalent to the following condition on the joint cumulative distribution function F X 1 X n x 1 x n displaystyle F X 1 ldots X n x 1 ldots x n nbsp A finite set of n displaystyle n nbsp random variables X 1 X n displaystyle X 1 ldots X n nbsp is mutually independent if and only if 3 p 16 F X 1 X n x 1 x n F X 1 x 1 F X n x n for all x 1 x n displaystyle F X 1 ldots X n x 1 ldots x n F X 1 x 1 cdot ldots cdot F X n x n quad text for all x 1 ldots x n nbsp Eq 5 Notice that it is not necessary here to require that the probability distribution factorizes for all possible k displaystyle k nbsp element subsets as in the case for n displaystyle n nbsp events This is not required because e g F X 1 X 2 X 3 x 1 x 2 x 3 F X 1 x 1 F X 2 x 2 F X 3 x 3 displaystyle F X 1 X 2 X 3 x 1 x 2 x 3 F X 1 x 1 cdot F X 2 x 2 cdot F X 3 x 3 nbsp implies F X 1 X 3 x 1 x 3 F X 1 x 1 F X 3 x 3 displaystyle F X 1 X 3 x 1 x 3 F X 1 x 1 cdot F X 3 x 3 nbsp The measure theoretically inclined may prefer to substitute events X A displaystyle X in A nbsp for events X x displaystyle X leq x nbsp in the above definition where A displaystyle A nbsp is any Borel set That definition is exactly equivalent to the one above when the values of the random variables are real numbers It has the advantage of working also for complex valued random variables or for random variables taking values in any measurable space which includes topological spaces endowed by appropriate s algebras For real valued random vectors Edit Two random vectors X X 1 X m T displaystyle mathbf X X 1 ldots X m mathrm T nbsp and Y Y 1 Y n T displaystyle mathbf Y Y 1 ldots Y n mathrm T nbsp are called independent if 5 p 187 F X Y x y F X x F Y y for all x y displaystyle F mathbf X Y mathbf x y F mathbf X mathbf x cdot F mathbf Y mathbf y quad text for all mathbf x mathbf y nbsp Eq 6 where F X x displaystyle F mathbf X mathbf x nbsp and F Y y displaystyle F mathbf Y mathbf y nbsp denote the cumulative distribution functions of X displaystyle mathbf X nbsp and Y displaystyle mathbf Y nbsp and F X Y x y displaystyle F mathbf X Y mathbf x y nbsp denotes their joint cumulative distribution function Independence of X displaystyle mathbf X nbsp and Y displaystyle mathbf Y nbsp is often denoted by X Y displaystyle mathbf X perp perp mathbf Y nbsp Written component wise X displaystyle mathbf X nbsp and Y displaystyle mathbf Y nbsp are called independent if F X 1 X m Y 1 Y n x 1 x m y 1 y n F X 1 X m x 1 x m F Y 1 Y n y 1 y n for all x 1 x m y 1 y n displaystyle F X 1 ldots X m Y 1 ldots Y n x 1 ldots x m y 1 ldots y n F X 1 ldots X m x 1 ldots x m cdot F Y 1 ldots Y n y 1 ldots y n quad text for all x 1 ldots x m y 1 ldots y n nbsp For stochastic processes Edit For one stochastic process Edit The definition of independence may be extended from random vectors to a stochastic process Therefore it is required for an independent stochastic process that the random variables obtained by sampling the process at any n displaystyle n nbsp times t 1 t n displaystyle t 1 ldots t n nbsp are independent random variables for any n displaystyle n nbsp 6 p 163 Formally a stochastic process X t t T displaystyle left X t right t in mathcal T nbsp is called independent if and only if for all n N displaystyle n in mathbb N nbsp and for all t 1 t n T displaystyle t 1 ldots t n in mathcal T nbsp F X t 1 X t n x 1 x n F X t 1 x 1 F X t n x n for all x 1 x n displaystyle F X t 1 ldots X t n x 1 ldots x n F X t 1 x 1 cdot ldots cdot F X t n x n quad text for all x 1 ldots x n nbsp Eq 7 where F X t 1 X t n x 1 x n P X t 1 x 1 X t n x n displaystyle F X t 1 ldots X t n x 1 ldots x n mathrm P X t 1 leq x 1 ldots X t n leq x n nbsp Independence of a stochastic process is a property within a stochastic process not between two stochastic processes For two stochastic processes Edit Independence of two stochastic processes is a property between two stochastic processes X t t T displaystyle left X t right t in mathcal T nbsp and Y t t T displaystyle left Y t right t in mathcal T nbsp that are defined on the same probability space W F P displaystyle Omega mathcal F P nbsp Formally two stochastic processes X t t T displaystyle left X t right t in mathcal T nbsp and Y t t T displaystyle left Y t right t in mathcal T nbsp are said to be independent if for all n N displaystyle n in mathbb N nbsp and for all t 1 t n T displaystyle t 1 ldots t n in mathcal T nbsp the random vectors X t 1 X t n displaystyle X t 1 ldots X t n nbsp and Y t 1 Y t n displaystyle Y t 1 ldots Y t n nbsp are independent 7 p 515 i e if F X t 1 X t n Y t 1 Y t n x 1 x n y 1 y n F X t 1 X t n x 1 x n F Y t 1 Y t n y 1 y n for all x 1 x n displaystyle F X t 1 ldots X t n Y t 1 ldots Y t n x 1 ldots x n y 1 ldots y n F X t 1 ldots X t n x 1 ldots x n cdot F Y t 1 ldots Y t n y 1 ldots y n quad text for all x 1 ldots x n nbsp Eq 8 Independent s algebras Edit The definitions above Eq 1 and Eq 2 are both generalized by the following definition of independence for s algebras Let W S P displaystyle Omega Sigma mathrm P nbsp be a probability space and let A displaystyle mathcal A nbsp and B displaystyle mathcal B nbsp be two sub s algebras of S displaystyle Sigma nbsp A displaystyle mathcal A nbsp and B displaystyle mathcal B nbsp are said to be independent if whenever A A displaystyle A in mathcal A nbsp and B B displaystyle B in mathcal B nbsp P A B P A P B displaystyle mathrm P A cap B mathrm P A mathrm P B nbsp Likewise a finite family of s algebras t i i I displaystyle tau i i in I nbsp where I displaystyle I nbsp is an index set is said to be independent if and only if A i i I i I t i P i I A i i I P A i displaystyle forall left A i right i in I in prod nolimits i in I tau i mathrm P left bigcap nolimits i in I A i right prod nolimits i in I mathrm P left A i right nbsp and an infinite family of s algebras is said to be independent if all its finite subfamilies are independent The new definition relates to the previous ones very directly Two events are independent in the old sense if and only if the s algebras that they generate are independent in the new sense The s algebra generated by an event E S displaystyle E in Sigma nbsp is by definition s E E W E W displaystyle sigma E emptyset E Omega setminus E Omega nbsp dd Two random variables X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp defined over W displaystyle Omega nbsp are independent in the old sense if and only if the s algebras that they generate are independent in the new sense The s algebra generated by a random variable X displaystyle X nbsp taking values in some measurable space S displaystyle S nbsp consists by definition of all subsets of W displaystyle Omega nbsp of the form X 1 U displaystyle X 1 U nbsp where U displaystyle U nbsp is any measurable subset of S displaystyle S nbsp Using this definition it is easy to show that if X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are random variables and Y displaystyle Y nbsp is constant then X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are independent since the s algebra generated by a constant random variable is the trivial s algebra W displaystyle varnothing Omega nbsp Probability zero events cannot affect independence so independence also holds if Y displaystyle Y nbsp is only Pr almost surely constant Properties EditSelf independence Edit Note that an event is independent of itself if and only if P A P A A P A P A P A 0 or P A 1 displaystyle mathrm P A mathrm P A cap A mathrm P A cdot mathrm P A iff mathrm P A 0 text or mathrm P A 1 nbsp Thus an event is independent of itself if and only if it almost surely occurs or its complement almost surely occurs this fact is useful when proving zero one laws 8 Expectation and covariance Edit Main article Correlation and dependence If X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are statistically independent random variables then the expectation operator E displaystyle operatorname E nbsp has the property E X n Y m E X n E Y m displaystyle operatorname E X n Y m operatorname E X n operatorname E Y m nbsp 9 p 10 and the covariance cov X Y displaystyle operatorname cov X Y nbsp is zero as follows from cov X Y E X Y E X E Y displaystyle operatorname cov X Y operatorname E XY operatorname E X operatorname E Y nbsp The converse does not hold if two random variables have a covariance of 0 they still may be not independent See also Uncorrelatedness probability theory Similarly for two stochastic processes X t t T displaystyle left X t right t in mathcal T nbsp and Y t t T displaystyle left Y t right t in mathcal T nbsp If they are independent then they are uncorrelated 10 p 151 Characteristic function Edit Two random variables X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are independent if and only if the characteristic function of the random vector X Y displaystyle X Y nbsp satisfies f X Y t s f X t f Y s displaystyle varphi X Y t s varphi X t cdot varphi Y s nbsp In particular the characteristic function of their sum is the product of their marginal characteristic functions f X Y t f X t f Y t displaystyle varphi X Y t varphi X t cdot varphi Y t nbsp though the reverse implication is not true Random variables that satisfy the latter condition are called subindependent Examples EditRolling dice Edit The event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event of getting a 6 the second time are independent By contrast the event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event that the sum of the numbers seen on the first and second trial is 8 are not independent Drawing cards Edit If two cards are drawn with replacement from a deck of cards the event of drawing a red card on the first trial and that of drawing a red card on the second trial are independent By contrast if two cards are drawn without replacement from a deck of cards the event of drawing a red card on the first trial and that of drawing a red card on the second trial are not independent because a deck that has had a red card removed has proportionately fewer red cards Pairwise and mutual independence Edit nbsp Pairwise independent but not mutually independent events nbsp Mutually independent eventsConsider the two probability spaces shown In both cases P A P B 1 2 displaystyle mathrm P A mathrm P B 1 2 nbsp and P C 1 4 displaystyle mathrm P C 1 4 nbsp The random variables in the first space are pairwise independent because P A B P A C 1 2 P A displaystyle mathrm P A B mathrm P A C 1 2 mathrm P A nbsp P B A P B C 1 2 P B displaystyle mathrm P B A mathrm P B C 1 2 mathrm P B nbsp and P C A P C B 1 4 P C displaystyle mathrm P C A mathrm P C B 1 4 mathrm P C nbsp but the three random variables are not mutually independent The random variables in the second space are both pairwise independent and mutually independent To illustrate the difference consider conditioning on two events In the pairwise independent case although any one event is independent of each of the other two individually it is not independent of the intersection of the other two P A B C 4 40 4 40 1 40 4 5 P A displaystyle mathrm P A BC frac frac 4 40 frac 4 40 frac 1 40 tfrac 4 5 neq mathrm P A nbsp P B A C 4 40 4 40 1 40 4 5 P B displaystyle mathrm P B AC frac frac 4 40 frac 4 40 frac 1 40 tfrac 4 5 neq mathrm P B nbsp P C A B 4 40 4 40 6 40 2 5 P C displaystyle mathrm P C AB frac frac 4 40 frac 4 40 frac 6 40 tfrac 2 5 neq mathrm P C nbsp In the mutually independent case however P A B C 1 16 1 16 1 16 1 2 P A displaystyle mathrm P A BC frac frac 1 16 frac 1 16 frac 1 16 tfrac 1 2 mathrm P A nbsp P B A C 1 16 1 16 1 16 1 2 P B displaystyle mathrm P B AC frac frac 1 16 frac 1 16 frac 1 16 tfrac 1 2 mathrm P B nbsp P C A B 1 16 1 16 3 16 1 4 P C displaystyle mathrm P C AB frac frac 1 16 frac 1 16 frac 3 16 tfrac 1 4 mathrm P C nbsp Triple independence but no pairwise independence Edit It is possible to create a three event example in which P A B C P A P B P C displaystyle mathrm P A cap B cap C mathrm P A mathrm P B mathrm P C nbsp and yet no two of the three events are pairwise independent and hence the set of events are not mutually independent 11 This example shows that mutual independence involves requirements on the products of probabilities of all combinations of events not just the single events as in this example Conditional independence EditMain article Conditional independence For events Edit The events A displaystyle A nbsp and B displaystyle B nbsp are conditionally independent given an event C displaystyle C nbsp whenP A B C P A C P B C displaystyle mathrm P A cap B mid C mathrm P A mid C cdot mathrm P B mid C nbsp For random variables Edit Intuitively two random variables X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are conditionally independent given Z displaystyle Z nbsp if once Z displaystyle Z nbsp is known the value of Y displaystyle Y nbsp does not add any additional information about X displaystyle X nbsp For instance two measurements X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp of the same underlying quantity Z displaystyle Z nbsp are not independent but they are conditionally independent given Z displaystyle Z nbsp unless the errors in the two measurements are somehow connected The formal definition of conditional independence is based on the idea of conditional distributions If X displaystyle X nbsp Y displaystyle Y nbsp and Z displaystyle Z nbsp are discrete random variables then we define X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp to be conditionally independent given Z displaystyle Z nbsp if P X x Y y Z z P X x Z z P Y y Z z displaystyle mathrm P X leq x Y leq y Z z mathrm P X leq x Z z cdot mathrm P Y leq y Z z nbsp for all x displaystyle x nbsp y displaystyle y nbsp and z displaystyle z nbsp such that P Z z gt 0 displaystyle mathrm P Z z gt 0 nbsp On the other hand if the random variables are continuous and have a joint probability density function f X Y Z x y z displaystyle f XYZ x y z nbsp then X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are conditionally independent given Z displaystyle Z nbsp if f X Y Z x y z f X Z x z f Y Z y z displaystyle f XY Z x y z f X Z x z cdot f Y Z y z nbsp for all real numbers x displaystyle x nbsp y displaystyle y nbsp and z displaystyle z nbsp such that f Z z gt 0 displaystyle f Z z gt 0 nbsp If discrete X displaystyle X nbsp and Y displaystyle Y nbsp are conditionally independent given Z displaystyle Z nbsp then P X x Y y Z z P X x Z z displaystyle mathrm P X x Y y Z z mathrm P X x Z z nbsp for any x displaystyle x nbsp y displaystyle y nbsp and z displaystyle z nbsp with P Z z gt 0 displaystyle mathrm P Z z gt 0 nbsp That is the conditional distribution for X displaystyle X nbsp given Y displaystyle Y nbsp and Z displaystyle Z nbsp is the same as that given Z displaystyle Z nbsp alone A similar equation holds for the conditional probability density functions in the continuous case Independence can be seen as a special kind of conditional independence since probability can be seen as a kind of conditional probability given no events See also EditCopula statistics Independent and identically distributed random variables Mean dependence Normally distributed and uncorrelated does not imply independentReferences Edit Russell Stuart Norvig Peter 2002 Artificial Intelligence A Modern Approach Prentice Hall p 478 ISBN 0 13 790395 2 a b Florescu Ionut 2014 Probability and Stochastic Processes Wiley ISBN 978 0 470 62455 5 a b c d Gallager Robert G 2013 Stochastic Processes Theory for Applications Cambridge University Press ISBN 978 1 107 03975 9 a b Feller W 1971 Stochastic Independence An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications Wiley Papoulis Athanasios 1991 Probability Random Variables and Stochastic Processes MCGraw Hill ISBN 0 07 048477 5 Hwei Piao 1997 Theory and Problems of Probability Random Variables and Random Processes McGraw Hill ISBN 0 07 030644 3 Amos Lapidoth 8 February 2017 A Foundation in Digital Communication Cambridge University Press ISBN 978 1 107 17732 1 Durrett Richard 1996 Probability theory and examples Second ed page 62 E Jakeman MODELING FLUCTUATIONS IN SCATTERED WAVES ISBN 978 0 7503 1005 5 Park Kun Il 2018 Fundamentals of Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications to Communications Springer ISBN 978 3 319 68074 3 George Glyn Testing for the independence of three events Mathematical Gazette 88 November 2004 568 PDFExternal links Edit nbsp Media related to Independence probability theory at Wikimedia Commons Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title Independence probability theory amp oldid 1178518945, wikipedia, wiki, book, books, library,

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